@Dilbu, Aditya_V, Vishal_Bhatia etc...
Interesting range of opinions, right from they are fighting because of loot to are they really fighting? Doesnt it really bring out my point?
We have opinions yet we dont know WHY they are really fighting, a lot of folks say the fight is a sham a staged show to keep uncle Sam happy, and while some idea of what are the mechanics
that feed the war are understood, what is clearly not understood the real contours of war.
Remember the war started only recently after Ameri Khans announced their latest "no strings attached" package to the TSP. TSP and TSPA was quite happy passing bills accepting Sharia in Swat and claiming all was well. This peace deal itself came after a rather half hearted fight which TSP got into in FATA area with its constabulary troops etc.
Also remember that none of this was happening under martial rule (almost neglible) the fun started with Mushy taking one step back and saving his head from the sun roof lever which got Beeb who was till then standing with Mushy out in front thinking that Mushy is with her.
The war is Pakistan is not "bizness as usual", as the good IA Col wrote to Kiyani, TSPA in the past shown no compuction about successfuly putting down internal dissent by butchering a whole lot of Muslims and Pakistanis when needed. (BeeDee was saved by India) so why is it unsuccessful now.
All this leads me to what I think is the studied wisdom of BRF -- the war is happening in one way or the other because of some American motivation -- otherwise what stops the old model from working -- America gives money to TSPA to keep a proxy which has some strategic assests in terms of assorted Sarkari tanzeems and some slightly less Sarkari tanzeems -- which run around doing what they want as long as they dont mess with TSPA and TSPA stays off their case.
Why is this nice little arrangement which America step-fathered being allowed to be destroyed by the real father of the mess? In the long run the group most hurt by the mess in Pakistan is actually the Americans who need a stable Pakistan to be their cats paw.
Yet they are willing for the Paki state to be jeopardized, for what?
Iam not a strat-A-Geist. But here goes...
1. Pak and AF or AFPAK is key to central asia with contigous land borders. Whatever energy economics happens in future Unkil wants to be main driver. Unkil probably knows the middleeast oil is limited and more places have to be found.
Get AF-PAK , kick all the hardliners etc who were its friends not so long back. Does not want bombs going off everywhere and its soldiers and businessmen getting caught in it.
2. Having pak with a friendly democrat govt or friendly dictator , please note the important word is friendly other things be damned will be almost like making AFPAK another state of US but without the privileges of actual US state. This will make US a neighbour of china, India and Russia. One can onlee guess what games it can play
3. Control India and china from playing one against other , also India will give up idea of attacking pak, it is like taking on unkil. We need loads and loads of weapons with fancy tech and lots of guts among politicians and our elite to do that. So even if the army is ready we will not attack or do anything. In effect a pussy cat India. Just like after 26/11. We will complain , make dossier but firing no no!
4. It will also check russia in the sense any future axis of russia-china-india will be gone. The russian areas of influence like central asia will now be watched over by unkil.
others can add more