Intelligence & National Security Discussion

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Sandipan
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Sandipan »

What was the leaked Prachanda Video, could you elaborate?
Anabhaya
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Anabhaya »

Sandipan,
Google is your friend. I'm sure you'll knock her doors next time.

Nepal PM defends leaked tape, says he has over 100,000 fighters (Lead)
AmitR
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by AmitR »

India, Pak delink terrorism from dialogue
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS ... 785330.cms

We all saw this coming in BR and now here it is. India has blinked again and pakistan goes scot-free living another day to create more destruction. Congress refuses to celebrate Vijay divas and yet again kneels infront of the Pakis.
mohan
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by mohan »

AmitR wrote:India, Pak delink terrorism from dialogue
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS ... 785330.cms

IBNLIVE says something subtly different:
No peace talks till 26/11 is settled: Manmohan
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/no-peace-tal ... 282-2.html

On the face of it, the article appears to contradicts itself - not sure what to read into this:
Composite dialogue cannot begin unless and until and terrorist heads which shook Mumbai are properly accounted for, (the) perpetrators of these heinous crimes are brought to book," said Singh.

"If there is no attempt to contain terror, no dialogue can take place," he said, quickly adding that he was not accusing the present government in Islamabad of having "the same mindset".

At the same time, Manmohan Singh indicated that India would not be averse to talking to Pakistan, saying: "our relationship has been subject to too many accidents".
and then..
In a significant development, the two countries issued a joint statement declaring that they would de-link "action on terrorism" from the composite dialogue process.
Perhaps we are saying, yes, we can delink terrorism from other parts of the composite dialogue, but bring the terrorists to boot first - a round about way of saying the same thing we've been saying all along.
abhiti
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by abhiti »

mohan wrote:In a significant development, the two countries issued a joint statement declaring that they would de-link "action on terrorism" from the composite dialogue process.
It is a case of MMS lying to the Parliament and people of India while speaking the truth to Pakistan and his masters America. Think about it for a minute, what kind of person will do such a thing?
sum
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by sum »

A security official admitted that the need for separate missile intelligence centres was primarily because of China's expanding missile development programme. The new agency will not just gather information but also analyse information available with central agencies like DIA, RAW, IB and NTRO and recommend action to counter any adverse development.
Holy #@$%, another new agency?
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Dilbu »

sum wrote: Holy #@$%, another new agency?
Just what we needed. 100000 agencies and 0 coordination. :roll:
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by shyamd »

sum wrote:A security official admitted that the need for separate missile intelligence centres was primarily because of China's expanding missile development programme. The new agency will not just gather information but also analyse information available with central agencies like DIA, RAW, IB and NTRO and recommend action to counter any adverse development.
Why don't they invest in something like intellipedia instead, so everyone can pool their resources? And how come once PC is HM, people are co-coordinating a little more all of a sudden? Did he use a mantra?
sum
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by sum »

The rate at which we are going, it seems we will have a separate intel agency/center (seems to be new lingo for a agency) to deal with each country!!! :-?
Surya
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Surya »

How else can you increase the possibilities of putting pensioned of old fogeys as head of this and head of that? :)
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Venkarl »

any idea from where the staff will be pulled in for this new agency?

btw...how difficult might it be for any non state actor of pakistan to poison the water pipe heading to residencies of Dawood Ibrahim or pollute the air conditioner system with some toxic gas?
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Baljeet »

bhai log
New agency it seems is formed following Massalands example. Massas have an agency called Missile Defense Agency that is responsible for all threats, development, intel, monitoring, testing of Missiles.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Venkarl »

Baljeet wrote:bhai log
New agency it seems is formed following Massalands example. Massas have an agency called Missile Defense Agency that is responsible for all threats, development, intel, monitoring, testing of Missiles.
So will the new agency be involved in development and testing of the BMD systems?
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by PratikDas »

Venkarl wrote:
Baljeet wrote:bhai log
New agency it seems is formed following Massalands example. Massas have an agency called Missile Defense Agency that is responsible for all threats, development, intel, monitoring, testing of Missiles.
So will the new agency be involved in development and testing of the BMD systems?
The new agency will be "involved" in the development and testing of BMD systems of other countries. :mrgreen:

Sounds good, but without any eyes and ears are they just supposed to surf BR and Google? Isn't a LEO infra-red spy satellite network kind of a minimum requirement?
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by shyamd »

JeM man’s makeover has cops in a jam
Vikram Sharma
First Published : 19 Jul 2009 03:10:00 AM IST
Last Updated :

HYDERABAD: Fifteen-years-ago when Farhatullah Ghori fled his house in Hyderabad for Saudi Arabia and subsequently to Dubai and Pakistan, the Andhra Pradesh police along with help from the Intelligence Bureau (IB) made all possible efforts to at least obtain his photograph to know how he looks like.

Till date, the agencies remained unsuccesful but continued to make efforts through various channels. Now, even the hope of getting his photograph has faded away. Farhatullah Ghori alias Abu Sufiyan, who masterminded the Sai Baba Temple blast at Saroornagar, then the Task Fo rce office bomb blast besides the failed assassination bid on senior BJP leader N Indrasena Reddy, has undergone several plastic surgeries to change his appearance.

Top sources disclosed to Express that Farhatullah, who used to reside at Kurmaguda here, has undergone several plastic surgeries in Dubai.

“This aspect came to light recently following disclosures made by his brother Shaukatullah Ghori who was nabbed today,’’ sources said. Farhatullah Ghori is a key operative of Jaishe- Mohammed (JeM). They further said that a team of doctors, who are performing plastic surgeries on several top aides of gangster Dawood Ibrahim in Dubai, are the doctors who did plastic surgery for Farhatullah Ghori.


“Over the last 10 years, Farhat has made a name for himself within JeM and runs a major network of financing terror besides motivating and recruiting Muslim youth. The available information is that he underwent surgeries at least six times to evade Indian Intelligence agencies,’’ they said adding that it may now be impossible to even know how he looks like, leave alone nabbing him. “We never know he may be walking in front of us,’’ they remarked.

Farhatullah, a close follower of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Moulana Masood Azhar, was a member of the Old-City-based fundamentalist outfit, Darsgah-Jihad-O-Shahadat (DJS).

“Though he is not directly involved in any terror attacks, he masterminds them sitting abroad. The JeM has given the task of financing the trips of Muslim youth to Dubai (and then motivate them on arrival) besides funding terror attacks in various parts of the country, particularly Hyderabad and organising logistics using local network.

“He is in constant touch with some people here over e-mail and chat. But whenever we tried to raid a few internet centres on specific information, we could not find anything. The messages are typed on the screen on one particular e-mail ID and the same is viewed by the person sitting abroad using the same ID and password,’’ sources said.

His two brothers -- Hashmathullah Ghori and Azmathullah Ghori -- are all based either in Dubai or Saudi Arabia.

Another brother, Rafatullah Ghori is a teacher in a school at Nampally while the fourth brother, Shaukatullah Ghori was nabbed today for his alleged role in the terror attack in Akshardham Temple in Gujarat.
IBN Link
He was taken to an undisclosed location where he was grilled by officials of OCTOPUS, counter intelligence and city police. His wife and children were taken to a farmhouse where their baggage was searched and their passports and some educational certificates were seized. They were later released.
Ghouri was later handed over to Gujarat Police as a warrant was pending against him in the Akshardham case. The entire operation was kept top secret till late night in view of a past incident when a mob had tried to prevent a Gujarat Police team from taking into custody a cleric and a suspect in the murder of former Gujarat home minister Haren Pandya. One youth was killed when a Gujarat Police officer had opened fire in that incident of 2005.
Well done to all those involved.
sum
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by sum »

Fifteen-years-ago when Farhatullah Ghori fled his house in Hyderabad for Saudi Arabia and subsequently to Dubai and Pakistan, the Andhra Pradesh police along with help from the Intelligence Bureau (IB) made all possible efforts to at least obtain his photograph to know how he looks like.
So, this puts a end to the BS that Praveen Swami was peddling that the Ghori brothers took to extremism to avenge the 2002 "pogrom"....
The available information is that he underwent surgeries at least six times to evade Indian Intelligence agencies,’’ they said adding that it may now be impossible to even know how he looks like, leave alone nabbing him. “We never know he may be walking in front of us,’’ they remarked.
Amazing..seems straight out of a thriller B-grade movie!!!!
ramana
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by ramana »

Shades of Bollyood movies Don!

How many plastic surgeons are there in the Gulf Countries? maybe half a dozen. shouldnt be too hard to shake them up and get the details.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by KiranM »

sum wrote:The rate at which we are going, it seems we will have a separate intel agency/center (seems to be new lingo for a agency) to deal with each country!!! :-?
Sum ji, my understanding is they will be dedicated analysis centres not new intel gathering agencies by itself. Something similar to the analysis desks in RAW, IB, etc. IMHO, they will play devil's advocate to the in-house interpretation by IB, RAW, DIA, etc.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by satya »

Intelligence in India is getting lot of Out of Box Ideas implemented ! Interesting times only ..............
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Hari »

Proof of RAW involvement in terror in Pak: Report
This is quite interesting. Any way they have struk a goal, i would like to know how we react to it
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Philip »

Chinese cheats at work again.This time stealing German tech secrets.India be warned!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/ju ... -espionage

Germany accuses China of industrial espionage• Cyber sabotage and phone hacking rife, agent says
• Several Chinese workers caught stealing secrets

Kate Connolly in Berlin
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 22 July 2009 19.57 BST

Germany is under attack from an increasing number of state-backed Chinese spying operations that are costing the German economy tens of billions of euros a year, a leading intelligence agent said.

Walter Opfermann, an espionage protection expert in the office for counter-intelligence for the state of Baden-Württemberg, said that China was using an array of "polished methods" from old-fashioned spies to phone-tapping, and increasingly the internet, to steal industrial secrets.

He said methods had become "extremely sophisticated" to the extent that China, which employs a million intelligence agents, was now capable of "sabotaging whole chunks of infrastructure" such as Germany's power grid. "This poses a danger not just for Germany but for critical infrastructure worldwide," he said.

Russia, he said, was also "top of the list" of states using internet spying techniques to garner vital German know-how which "helps save billions on their own economic research and development". He said while Russia only had "hundreds of thousands of agents", compared to China's million, it had "years more experience".

Opfermann estimated that German companies were losing around €50bn (£43bn) and 30,000 jobs to industrial espionage every year.

"China wants to be the world's leading economic power by 2020," Opfermann said. "For that they need a speedy and intensive transfer of high-level technological information which is available in developed industrial lands, if you can get your hands on it".

The areas most under attack include car manufacturing, renewable energies, chemistry, communication, optics, x-ray technology, machinery, materials research and armaments. Information being gathered was not just related to research and development but also management techniques and marketing strategies.

Opfermann said internet espionage was the biggest growth field, citing the "thick fog of Trojan email attacks" taking place against thousands of firms on a regular basis and the methods employed to cover up where the emails had come from.

But he said "old-fashioned" methods were also rife, such as phone-tapping, stealing laptops during business trips or Chinese companies who regularly sent spies to infiltrate companies.

"I cannot name names but we've dealt with several cases of Chinese citizens on work experience in German companies, who stole highly sensitive information from them," he said.

In one case, the police raided the house of a Chinese woman suspected of stealing company secrets from a German business where she was working, and discovered 170 CDs containing highly sensitive product details.

In a separate case a highly qualified Chinese mechanical engineer employed by a company in the Lake Constance region was discovered to have passed on information for a machine it was developing to the company's Chinese competitor, who constructed an exact copy.

"As is often the case the man disappeared and went back to China – so often the attacker is way ahead of the game and it's also hard to find out who they've been working for."

Opfermann said although the problem was "huge and growing", it was not being discussed, "because companies don't want to admit their weaknesses and lose customers and they don't want to ruin business opportunities with China. As a result we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg."

Two years ago the consultancy firm Corporate Trust estimated that around 20% of German companies – mainly small and middle-sized businesses – had been the victims of industrial espionage.The findings chime with fears across the industrial world about the threat of cyber crime and the corresponding increase in efforts being put in place to fight it.

In Britain last month the GCHQ, the government's electronic spy centre, which estimates that the UK loses GBP 1bn a year to e-fraud, set up operations to deal with the growing threats. The Pentagon also announced it is to create a new "cyber command" and in May President Obama said he would establish a White House role to oversee cyber defence, saying the nation's digital networks had to be recognised as a "strategic national asset".

PS:The Germasn should simply make an example out of a few Chinamane,just as China is doing to the execs of the Oz co.Rio Tinto.Kick out a few Chinese diplomats and watch the mandarins of the Middle Kingdom squeal.
abhiti
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by abhiti »

Hari wrote:
Proof of RAW involvement in terror in Pak: Report
This is quite interesting. Any way they have struk a goal, i would like to know how we react to it
Simple we give them proof of ISI terrorist activities in Kashmir and around the world. US is pushing Pak ONLY on Mumbai. Pak never accepted its terrorists activities in Kashmir. It calls the terrorists "freedom fighters".
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by ramana »

From Nightwatch 23 July 2009 as a placeholder..
Special Note to New Analysts: Professionalism in Analysis.

This week, NightWatch was asked to give a presentation about professionalism to a group of foreign area experts. After consultation with brilliant, perceptive Readers who are genuine professionals (and who make a living in their professions), NightWatch crafted a presentation, parts of which are contained in this special note.

A young analyst can spend many years in service and never receive a satisfying, guiding or inspiring answer to the question, “what constitutes professionalism in intelligence analysis.” With even a cursory search, the analyst readily could find many words about analysis, analytical standards and certification requirements. Courses on analysis are everywhere now.

Nevertheless, the proliferation of words on these and related topics that NightWatch has reviewed do not come close to matching NightWatch’s now long experience. That is unfortunate.

They all miss the central point that people who work and make money in a profession understand. Besides, statements of goals and definitions ought to be written in simple declarative sentences in active voice using transitive verbs. Many words about foundational issues justifiably raise a suspicion that a writer does not understand what he is writing about.

Old timers owe you young or new analysts a concise answer that can help guide and empower your personal, professional development, even when institutional answers fall short.

Professionalism in intelligence analysis means sound judgment in applying specialized knowledge and experience to solving national security problems.

Professionalism always is about the soundness of judgment in applying knowledge and experience, not about the depth of knowledge, years of education or diversity of experience or even language skills. There are lots of well educated and experienced doctors, accountants, auto mechanics and attorneys in America today that no one should ever consult. Many speak more than one language.

Most professions have concluded that judgment cannot be taught, but can be learned with difficulty and mentoring. A young or new analyst should read and have in his professional library, Dr. Philip Tetlock’s seminal work, Expert Political Judgment. It is a scholarly, cautionary study about the dangers of intellectual hubris. It is a starting point for intellectual wisdom.

Judgment is a cognitive and sensory skill in drawing correct conclusions and making accurate predictions with incomplete information. It is vastly more sophisticated than a mathematical probability calculated by DARPA software.

“Sound” means consistent and dependably high accuracy.

In the NightWatch experience, the passing grade for sound judgment is 85% accuracy in every judgment made … ever. If an analyst cannot sustain 85% accuracy, his customers should consult the predictive market at strategypage.com, instead of him. Its members score 85% accuracy by guessing about the outcome of some 500 issues... consistently and dependably all the time. You can bet on it and they do!

The NightWatch standard is 90% accuracy in its predictive judgments, which it exceeds. It is higher than 90% in its causal, relational and diagnostic judgments. Feedback helps ensure those standards are maintained.

“Consistency” is often overlooked and undervalued. Patients go to doctors who have a reputation for curing illness and saving lives, not once but all the time. Most patients look for healers, more than education. They look at years in practice and results over time. Interestingly, some in the medical profession consider “healing” a gift that cannot be taught.

Most legal clients seek out attorneys who have a reputation for winning in court or negotiations, regardless of where they studied. What counts most in the legal profession is passing the Bar and winning in practice. Lots of stellar and brilliant law school students never get to practice law because they fail to pass the Bar Exam, which tests application of the law. Professions take knowledge for granted. Skill in legal work is often described as a gift that cannot be taught. Some consider it an inherited trait that runs in families.

NightWatch considers predictive accuracy in analysis -- in other words, the ability to think accurately in “future time” -- to be a gift as well. At one brief period in the late 1990, the Directorate of Intelligence, Joint Chiefs of Staff, had six analysts in a pool of 120 who had this gift. The norm was one in 120 analysts, over a 12- year time period. It cannot be taught, but can be cultivated in those who have it, in the NightWatch experience.

Customers of intelligence analysis ought to have high expectations from their analysis centers, i.e., they should “get it right” most of the time. “Getting it right” is a diagnostic judgment that dictates the range of appropriate problem solving solutions, all the time and every time.

”Getting it wrong” constitutes prima facie malpractice and there ought to be consequences for malpractice in analysis in national security affairs because lives may be and have been at great risk because analysts failed. Every profession has penalties for malpractice.


The “specialized knowledge” is the ways living national systems behave so as to thrive when healthy and survive when not. Knowledge of the system of nation states is necessary and useful, but not enough for achieving professional judgment in analysis of international security affairs. Professional analysts of national security threats are more than biological card catalogues.

Knowledge of nation state behavior alone ensures no more than 75% accuracy in predictive judgments, in real life experience in the J2, Joint Chiefs of Staff. In the open source world, Tetlock’s work indicates customers should expect less than 30% predictive accuracy. Both figures are less than the empirical experience of unclassified predictive markets that achieve 85% by pure guesswork. These are chilling and humbling data points.

Thus the aim of intelligence analytical education, training and work experience is to nurture consistent and dependable sound judgment in the application of knowledge and experience in national security problem solving. Put simply, if our well educated and experienced analysts can’t do better than dilettante guessers, they need to get other jobs, and the agencies need to rethink their recruitment criteria.

Intelligence analysis is purposeful behavior, as in any other profession. The professional purpose is not to become brilliant. Knowledge for its own sake is a worthy pursuit, but it is not an attribute of a profession. The goal, purpose and product of the profession of analyst is to apply knowledge and experience to maintain the security of this great Republic.

Astute Readers by now will have deduced that NightWatch has an evaluation process for the accuracy of its judgments. As one incredibly brilliant professional Reader remarked, we ain’t playing bean bag.

NightWatch evaluates four kinds of judgments in its work. They are:

-analytical in the sense of breaking down a phenomenon into its causes and key drivers;

-synthetic in the sense of matching and merging as derivatives of reasoning by analogy;

-diagnostic in the sense of defining the phenomenon and phenomenology of the issue under analysis

-prognostic in the sense of predicting the way ahead.



Knowledge and experience in area and functional studies are interesting. They appear to be necessary and sufficient for analytical and synthetic judgments, as defined above. Those are fairly low grade inferences that in time will be accomplished by computer programs. DARPA is working on those programs now.

They are necessary but not sufficient for diagnosis and prognosis, which are the two cognitive functions or skills that distinguish the professional. Sensory sensitivity is critical in both functions and also often overlooked. Those with the diagnostic gift know always to start from a known state and are keenly sensitive to the slightest departures from normality, especially in international security affairs. The departures always are indicators of change.

Good technical assistants do breakdown, matching and merging work in doctor’s and law offices all over the country. Professional excellence lies in sound diagnosis and prognosis. They require the professional instead of the technician.

The tests of sound judgment that NightWatch always applies are taken from the scientific method: auditability, replicability and inability to be refuted.

Expertise is merely the starting point of what people call “analysis” in the generic use of that much abused term. It is not the end state and not sufficient to achieve the end state described in this note: professional judgment.

Young and new analysts, you are working on developing your professional judgment, not your academic credentials or the number of your deployment badges. Everything else should be devoted to refining and improving your judgment or it has no value to you in the profession of analysis.
Added from July 29th, 2009 Nightwatch:
Afghanistan: Special commentary on the latest edition of the Taliban code of conduct.

A brilliant, astute and insightful Reader sent the following note which precisely corresponds to the findings of the NightWatch experience in studying more than 50 insurgencies. There are no exceptions in that data pool.


”It is standard for all organizations to codify their procedures as they grow larger. With small organizations, they can conduct their activities through interpersonal communications among the few people in the organization. As the organization grows, becomes more geographically spread out and more people get involved, the rules must be declared and codified.”



“New rules are issued when there is a change or revision in strategy or doctrine in order to reorient the organization towards the new direction. Often this follows when a new leader or senior person wants to establish his view on the organization.”



“New rules and procedures might help to reign in parts of the organization that are starting to deviate from the main goals of the organization. But that is not very successful, unless the leadership of those deviant groups has first been convinced to follow the new rules beforehand. In other words, the new book of rules helps solidify organizational power, but that power usually has to exist beforehand.”


This is differential analysis so there is no single correct answer, only a range of most probable answers consistent with the data, each with different implications for policy or operational responses.


Some Readers reported the code is a propaganda ploy that has no meaning. That is not an unreasonable answer but it leaves unexplained some data that is easily available on the Internet. Namely, that the Taliban distributed a less detailed code in 2006. Secondly, before the Internet, the Mujahedin and later the Taliban distributed still earlier versions of codes of conduct.

The reiteration of the codes with increasingly greater complexity and specificity implies the Taliban leadership ascribe importance to it. In fact the editions roughly correspond to new thresholds in the development and spread of the Taliban.

The US command in Kabul told the press that the Taliban are hypocrites because they do not follow the code. Now this is part of a counter-propaganda campaign, but it falls short.

Everyone knows that compliance has little bearing on the significance of the code as a measurement of the growth of a living system. Growth in all living systems requires continually updated rules. See James Miller, Living Systems, and Jeremy Campbell, The Grammatical Man. New information is the antidote to entropy in living systems; the survival of a living system requires, absolutely, new rules as the system grows or evolves or growth becomes unsustainable.

Consider US traffic laws. The police are under no obligation to stop all speeders or to enforce the parking regulations uniformly against all malefactors. For example, they can give parking tickets to every third car whose meter has expired. Those who get caught breaking the traffic laws have no defense of inconsistent enforcement. Inconsistent enforcement or compliance does not invalidate the code or render it irrelevant.

US news and intelligence services only report on nine distinct kinds of internal instability. They cover more than 190 countries and non-state actors, but only nine distinct phenomena. They are coup, assassination/decapitation, civil war, insurgency, revolution, secession/fragmentation, insurrection, anarchy, demographic changes.

Two salient features that distinguish each are organizational complexity and purpose. Thus, anarchy and inchoate popular protests evolve into insurrection and then into revolution by becoming more complex and more focused.

The transformation of an insurgency into a revolutionary movement is signaled by different organizational principles needed for leading a more complex and much larger organization.

The Taliban are following loosely what Westerners can readily discern is a business model of organization. Some brilliant and astute Readers argue the same is true of international terrorist groups. The significance of those assessments is that they are predictable with considerable precision.

Readers rightly should object, why should we believe the Taliban have breached another organizational threshold instead of re-issuing another propaganda tract? Because they are executing attacks in 211 of the 398 districts in Afghanistan, the largest number over the greatest area in the history of the Taliban. They are operating in more districts farther from the core Pashtun provinces of the south than when the emirate sat in Kabul.


Thus, the codes pass the congruency test in which its most probable implications are matched against the real world condition of the Taliban established by credible data. The data indicates the movement is larger and more widespread than ever, consistent with a need for new rules. As with the US traffic law, non-compliance will be dealt with as it is encountered.

Another consideration that influences the timing of the new rules is the Afghan national elections on 20 August. With a coordinated effort, the Taliban stand a chance to force cancellation of the elections or to discourage the voter turnout so that the elections fail as a statement of the will of the majority.

Propaganda, organizational complexity and a component of the campaign to de-legitimate the elections are all valid inferences in that they flow from and are supported by lots of credible evidence; they are not mutually exclusive and they are all high probability implications. They dictate the range of threats that policy and operational responses must address.
R Atkinson
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by R Atkinson »

Not sure if someone has posted the entire video of the Channel 4 documentary on 26/11. It has some bone chilling recordings of terrorist's phone conversations.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=1e4_1246490858
Last edited by Gerard on 25 Jul 2009 04:24, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: username changed to conform with forum guidelines
pgbhat
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by pgbhat »

^^^^
was posted in strat forum before. :)
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by sum »

X-post:
pok-leaders-seek-indias-help-in-fight-against-pak
WHILE India has been extremely sensitive about being seen to be getting involved in Pakistan’s internal affairs, a number of political groups in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) have now been openly seeking New Delhi’s help in their fight against what they describe as their persecution by Islamabad.

Their argument is simple. Officially, India continues to consider the whole of Kashmir, including the areas under Pakistan control, as its own territory and therefore it becomes its duty to protect them against a foreign aggressor, which is how they describe Pakistan.

A motley group of these political leaders and intellectuals from areas around Gilgit and Baltistan in PoK, referred to as Northern Areas by Pakistan, assembled in New Delhi to participate in a two-day international seminar on ‘Society, Culture and Politics in the Karakoram Himalayas’ that was dominated by tales of discrimination and persecution of the people in these areas at the hands of Pakistan’s civilian and military establishment.

“I am surprised that India has no concern about what is happening in Gilgit and Baltistan. Pakistan has been openly supporting and encouraging militants in Indian Kashmir and New Delhi doesn’t even want to keep contact with areas that are officially still a part of its own territory,” said Abdul Hamid Khan, chairman of Balawaristan National Front, a political party whose objective is to gain independence from Pakistan. Balawaristan is the historic name for Northern Areas.

Khan, like most other political leaders from the region, lives in exile in Europe. He said the Indian position was even more surprising considering the fact that most political formations in the area were now open to a merger with India.

“Even an independent Balawaristan is in larger interest of India as it would not support terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir,” he said.
....
I smell a RAW hand in the organizing committee.
Good work by our agencies to track so many of these PoK leaders and get them into Delhi. Now, time to back all this up with some action.
ramana
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by ramana »

Why do you want to look for raw and cooked stuff? For all we know its time for India to engage all the citizens even those under enemy occupation.
shyamd
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by shyamd »

So it took 100's of deaths for this improvement.
Intelligence gets intelligent
By: Anshuman G Dutta Date: 2009-07-06


Security agencies Are providing specific inputs on terror threats, says state police departments

After a year of continuous terror attacks, the country's intelligence agencies seem to have finally smartened up their acts. Or that's what the state police and other security agencies claim.

"The recent inputs we are receiving from Intelligence Bureau (IB), Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and other such agencies have become more specific. The intelligence dossiers have also become regular," said a senior police officer from Gujarat.

The officer was referring to an instance when his team was updated by Central intelligence agencies about the plans made by Pakistan-based terror groups to attack vital economic installations along the Kutch coast in the state. "Both RAW and IB had forwarded their inputs and which were very specific in nature," said the officer.

The inputs had even mentioned that terrorists were planning to set up a base in a town in Gujarat and had been asked to procure mechanised fishing boats for their operations.
Other state police departments too confirmed the officer's claims.

"We cannot divulge details but our coordination with IB and other Central agencies has improved over the last one year. The inputs we get are task oriented," said a senior police officer from Rajasthan.

Meanwhile, sources in the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said intelligence dossiers are now being prepared as per the requirement of the local security agency. "For Gujarat and Maharashtra which have long coastlines as well as land borders, there are several end users like Navy, Coast Guards, Border Security Force, state police and the customs department.

Their intelligence requirement can not be the same," said a senior MHA official, wishing anonymity. But he denied any significant change in the process of intelligence gathering and forwarding. "Intelligence sharing is a regular process and it does not change overnight. Only the nature of inputs has become more specific. We are trying to address the needs of every agency for better results," he said.

After the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, both the Navy and the Coast Guards had alleged the intelligence agencies were providing them with 'non- actionable' inputs. The intelligence failure and the inability of the Central agencies to provide pointed information were considered as the reasons behind last year's serial terror attacks in the country.

The security agencies were asked to mend their style of working.
Avinash R
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Avinash R »

^ It was the removal of "do nothing" shivraj patil and induction of a proactive chidu as HM which brought this change.
Shows how much difference an active leadership can make. While the most important thing for shivraj patil was his clothes, chidu concentrates more on his work.
Avinash R
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Avinash R »

It's a RAW deal for intel agency
Sachin Parashar, TNN 26 July 2009
kit
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kit »

While China has backed off from its order for computer manufacturers to install monitoring software ("Green Dam") in all PCs it ships to Chinese buyers, it is still aggressively...

does that mean your lenovo laptop is calling its chinese makers once in a while ?!

posted in strategy page !
ramana
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by ramana »

Seminar India has an article on Intel issues that lead to teh 1962 debacle

Intel failures and reforms

I did a similar more comprehensive analysis of the kargil surprise for BRM.

KRC Report review

Scroll to bottom of the page and click on the links.
shyamd
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by shyamd »

Security prompts checks on telecoms gear in India
NEW DELHI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - India is considering a new law allowing strict checking of all imported telecommunications equipment, the latest move to plug security holes after last year's Mumbai attacks.

Officials said on Tuesday the government also wants to set up a telecoms equipment testing centre, where all imported gadgets and technology sold by private operators could be first tested to ensure they do not compromise India's security. (The GCHQ handles this in the UK)

"Discussions have been held with telecom operators on the security aspects," said Bharti Vaid, telecoms ministry spokeswoman.

She said the complex nature of the negotiations with multiple telecom companies and trading issues means it could take some time before the stage is set for the new legislation.

Already, the government has asked the heads of India's top mobile companies to issue self-regulatory guidelines in sourcing telecoms equipment from abroad.

Operators including Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO), Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO), Vodafone (VOD.L) and Idea (IDEA.BO) have been asked to come out with guidelines on sourcing equipment, Indian newspapers said last week.

Equipment suppliers must register with the Department of Telecommunications, allow monitoring and checking by security officials and get a clearance from the home ministry, said a home ministry official, who could not be identified because he is not authorised to speak to the media.

The government has embarked on an overhaul of its security systems after Islamist militants killed 166 people in Mumbai last November.

The militants used a satellite phone while travelling to Mumbai by sea and kept in touch with their handlers in Pakistan on mobile phones and Internet telephones.

Police intelligence bureau officials have also suggested that only Indians head all top telecom company posts to reduce the threat of phone calls being intercepted or monitored, officials said.

As part of the security drive, the government has put restrictions on state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd placing equipment orders with Chinese vendors, officials said. (This is as a result of NTRO report submitted to the Cabinet Secretariat before Feb 09)

A decision on banning Chinese telecom equipment altogether is now pending.

The National Security Council also wants to arm the government with powers to cancel or suspend foreign direct investments that it may see as linked to militant groups and stop acquisitions that are viewed as against New Delhi's interest.

The council in its report last week said it wants to scrutinise FDI particularly from countries such as China, Hong Kong, Afghanistan, North Korea, Mauritius and the Cayman Islands before being approved. (Editing by Krittivas Mukherjee and Bill Tarrant)
sunny y
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by sunny y »

Does anybody have any photo of NTRO or RAW campus ?

If yes please upload it.....


Thanks
ramana
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by ramana »

What do you plan to do with it?
Rishi
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Rishi »

sunny y wrote:Does anybody have any photo of NTRO or RAW campus ?

If yes please upload it.....


Thanks
Yes. Please copy-paste question here: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/postin ... f=1&t=4985
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