csharma wrote:http://www.indiadefence.com/nuc_status.htm
K Santanam defended the Government policy and explained lucidly that the specially cemented shafts at Pokhran happened to be 17 years old and there was no way they could have been increased beyond the 150 – 200 metres without India’s intentions to test being compromised. For this reason the maximum calculated yield of 45 kilo tonnes, though feasible could not be exceeded without de populating several villages as also fearing a nuclear fall out towards Pakistan.
This should lay to rest the idea that somehow 200KT bomb was being tested.
Hajaar Shukriya, Dhanyawaad, etc., csharmaji!
This is the point that the "200KT or bust!" crowd consistently insists on ignoring, because it "vents" the whole garam hawa. So no less a personage than Dr. Santanam himself "lucidly" explained this, presumaby with all the convincing body language etc.
Yet we find that the village of Khetolai did experience a borderline disastrous earth tremor.
And an interesting new point comes out:
17 years back from 1998, per my Binori math, is 1991!!!! Pls note for future use. It wasn't 1995.
Let me repeat the factual evidence that keeps getting buried under the mountains of ro-dho because the ro-dho'ers have no intention to fairly consider evidence:
1. Evidence easily found at first glance on GOOGLE (but certified invisible by some here) shows reports of
schools and community halls collapsing, killing 27 students and a teacher in Italy, and some similar number of labor union members (hardly weakling children!) in Australia,
due to earthquakes rated at Magnitude 5.4. Khetolai is a poor village in rural Rajasthan, their house construction is hardly going to meet the codes of nations like Italy and Australia. (yes, I know, neither did the school in Italy - the town's mayor was jailed for corruption leading to negligent homicide, though his own daughter was one of those crushed to death).
2. However, reading these reports, the
designers asked the Army to get the schoolkids in Khetolai outdoors at test time - quietly, just in case. What does this show? That
the designers EXPECTED the tremor in Khetolai to be insignificant, but did not want to risk any danger to kids. Which brings up the question:
Why was it safe to have children outdoors in a desert place, just 4 to 6 km from the site of a thermonuclear blast?
Wasn't there a huge danger of "venting" with a very radioactive, very glowing plume emitting harmful radiation, very likely to shoot 12,000 feet into the air? Would kids not turn to look at this? What if they were showered with black rain or radioactive sand?
Answer: The designers were totally confident that the blast would not vent. So much for the argument about
"why no deep subsistence crater?" The earth did bulge up, and subside just a bit, but no deep crater, because the blast was designed to be well contained with no risk of radioactive venting. The US Bene.... disaster had been the textbook case studied up and down by the test team for many years, and they had argued about the results of that until they were sick of it.
3. Despite all this confidence,
there WAS a singificant earth tremor at Khetolai - estimated at 5.0 to 5.4, mean rumor was 5.2. The designers were mostly right, but UNDERESTIMATED the yield, because most homes at Khetolai reported pretty significant damage. A brick separation crack like that shown in the picture posted here, looks minor, but is actually a foundation settling problem. The fix is extremely costly and takes hydraulic equipment, even if it can be done in Rajasthan.
As the residents complained, the govt. sent engineers to estimate the repair cost, the cost came out to several lakhs of rupees (Rs. 1.5 million was the figure they said, it was probably too low), and they said the govt, never came back.
This proves very conclusively that the POK S1 and S2 tests yielded as much or more (probably a lot more) than their designers intended. The yield simulations proved to be very conservative. No other data are needed, Classified or otherwise.
The GOI has given PLENTY of data to those who are willing to use their brains rationally.
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So is KS etc. "lying" today? Absolutely not. If one carefully reads again their statements with an open mind, uncluttered by the deadly determination to twist it around to one's conviction that the elected PM, all the top officials in charge of the Strategic Deterrent, and all those in charge of international negotiations are thieves, crooks, weak-kneed cowards and corrupt spies of foreign powers, then one finds that there is no fire beneath the smoke.
Dr. KS merely tweaked the tails of the NPAs saying: "According to YOU, we don't have a proven deterrent, so we reserve the right to test".
The General said: "The weapon designers need to reassure the weapon use planners clearly" (why? mostly because they read the newspapers and BRo-DhoF and get discouraged, I suppose).
Most people agree that it would be nice to have more tests. So do I. BUT.. I also believe that there is PLENTY of deterrent from what was demonstrated in 1998.
It would be even nicer to have electricity 24 hours a day, every day. And roads without potholes. And better water storage to reduce dependence on the timing of monsoon rains. And better protection in cyclones and against floods. And less pollution in the cities. And good potty-places in trains that don't fertilize the entire railtrack. And a better runway at Mumbai international airport.
In the defence arena, it would be much more than nice to have successful "yield" from jet engine tests, so that India can produce useful combat aircraft. And better defence production quality control on aircraft, guns, missiles, everything.
You think desi missiles don't have problems - even after hajaar tests? What good is a perfectly working "TN" if its delivery system follows the limerick that ends:
and instead of coming, he went!
???
It would be nicer to have a plentiful supply and production rate of mountain artillery shells.
And winter shoes and socks for our soldiers.
And snowmobiles for our soldiers in Siachen.
It would be nicer to have more powerful combat helicopters that can function better around the Mt. Chellaswamy Massif in Northern Sikkim and the Parukutty Plateau in East Kashmir, and IndiraChechi Col in Siachen.
It would be VERY nice to have nuclear submarines that are not made of plastic.
The whole smoke is generated by people who will use anything or even a total absence of anything, to yell and scream that the Prime Minister is a traitor. And this post is going to get buried deeper that a 1MT nuke for an underground test.