Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by NRao »

Stan_Savljevic wrote:Quiet trip to Afghanistan
http://telegraphindia.com/1100116/jsp/f ... 991150.jsp
Lt Gen. Loomba’s visit to Afghanistan was a month after the chief of the US Pacific Command, Adm. Robert Willard, visited New Delhi for discussions on security assessments in South Asia. He had said India has to decide if it wanted to expand its role in Afghanistan.
Airavat
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2326
Joined: 29 Jul 2003 11:31
Location: dishum-bishum
Contact:

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Airavat »

Pashtun Israeli link

Israel is to fund a rare genetic study to determine whether there is a link between the lost tribes of Israel and the Pashtuns of Afghanistan and northern Pakistan. Historical and anecdotal evidence strongly suggests a connection, but definitive scientific proof has never been found.

Shahnaz Ali, from the National Institute of Immuno­haematology in Mumbai, has collected blood samples from members of the Afridi tribe of Pashtuns who today live in Malihabad, near Lucknow, in northern India. She will spend several months studying her findings at Technion, the Israel Institute of Technology, in Haifa.

Navras Aafreedi, an academic at Lucknow University, traces his roots back to Pathans from the Khyber Agency of what is today north-west Pakistan, but he believes they stretch back further to the tribe of Ephraim. "Pathans, or Pashtuns, are the only people in the world whose probable descent from the lost tribes of Israel finds mention in a number of texts from the 10th century to the present day, written by Jewish, Christian and Muslim scholars alike, both religious as well as secularists," Aafreedi said.
shaardula
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2591
Joined: 17 Apr 2006 20:02

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by shaardula »

they might find a biological link. but do they have any social impulse left that gives any weight to empiricism? i may be completely wrong though. but if they are anything like the pakistanis appear to be, then what is the impact of result one way or the other?

they are going to say it may be, but the book says even rocks will tell me where the yahud is hiding. and it says yada yada about judgement day. so what are they going to do? falsify the book or falsify the biology? we all know the answer to that one.

what a bunch of obscurantist idiots a book has made the people!!
Airavat
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2326
Joined: 29 Jul 2003 11:31
Location: dishum-bishum
Contact:

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Airavat »

Pamela Constable

Shah Hassan Khel is in the buffer district of Lakki Marwat, between Pakistan proper and the lawless tribal areas bordering Afghanistan where the Taliban is fighting the Pakistani army. Until early last year, Marwat leaders kept the militants at bay by holding a mass negotiation session, or jirga, in which they threatened to unleash thousands of militiamen unless the Taliban behaved peacefully in their district.

But by last summer, Marwat and local officials said, the agreement had broken down, and Taliban fighters were carrying out brazen attacks in the area. The Marwats called up their regional militia and confronted the militants in repeated battles, killing some and turning over others to the authorities. Finally, last fall, army officials ordered villagers to drive out the local Taliban forces and their sympathizers or step aside. The community was evacuated, then bombed. When families returned last winter, they found their cattle dead, their homes damaged and their pro-Taliban neighbors gone.

Image

Last week, a suicide bomber drove his truck into a village volleyball game killing 100 people. "Every family in our village has lost a relative, but no one is weeping," said Mushtaq Ahmed, a gaunt farmer with a black goatee who heads the village peace committee, a euphemism for the anti-Taliban militias. They also knew the young suicide attacker, a villager who had run off with the Taliban.

Although the provincial chief minister paid condolences during a brief helicopter visit and several hundred government security troops now patrol the area, residents say they have little confidence in them.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59882
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

Nightwatch comments on the attack in Kabul.

1/18/10
Afghanistan: Multiple news services reported today’s bold Afghan Taliban attacks in Kabul. The coordinated multiple attacks killed at least 15 and injured 62, as reported in this Watch. Four militants also were killed, including two suicide bombers who detonated their explosives, and Afghan forces were searching several other areas in the city for more attackers, a government spokesman said.

It was the biggest attack in the capital since 28 October when gunmen with automatic weapons and suicide vests stormed a guest house used by U.N. staff, killing at least 11 people including three U.N. staff.

The attack coincided with the investiture of those Cabinet members in the Karzai government who had been confirmed by the Parliament. A majority of his choices have been rejected twice.

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid told The Associated Press that 20 armed militants, including some with suicide vests, had entered Kabul to target the presidential palace and other government buildings in the center of the capital.

The Taleban spokesman, Zabihollah Mojahed, called today's ongoing attacks in Kabul a message for foreign forces and the Afghan government. He told the Afghan Islamic Press, "Today's attacks are a strong message from the Taliban to foreign forces and the government. We showed them that the Taliban cannot be purchased or crushed by increasing the number of foreign forces."

Comment: Today’s action in the context of the statement represents the clearest Taliban response to the plans for a surge in US troops and for Afghan government outreach to Taliban commanders. The Haqqani syndicate has been responsible for the most effective attacks in Kabul during the past few years.

The Haqqani organization obviously has penetrated government and Coalition security and has inside help moving men and vehicles to targets. More importantly, the Haqqanis understand that the end game requires the capture of Kabul.

Internal instability is always centripetal, unless it leads to fragmentation. The direction of combat always must point to the centers of authority, in the district, the province and the nation, unless the aim of combat is to fragment the state. The Pashtun Taliban want to govern Afghanistan, not to form a secessionist Pashtun state.

Attacks of this kind discredit the government and its allies by showing they cannot protect themselves, much less the people of Afghanistan. It is a false thesis, but it resonates with shopkeepers, investors and residents because of the random nature of the violence. The government did not fall and the Haqqanis lost 20 suicide bombers who achieved little more than past less strenuous exertions.

In other words, the Haqqanis understand the end game. They are trying to collapse the non-military props of the regime. They cannot beat the NATO forces in combat, but they can erode home front support by embarrassing them. They may be expected to continue to try to assassinate Karzai or someone of comparable stature, such as the US ambassador or a NATO general.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59882
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

X-post..

Gives an idea on TSP interests in Afghanistan
durgesh wrote:Defining ‘strategic depth’
And how does it help us? We are engaged in the Great Game in Afghanistan, we are told, because ‘strategic depth’ is vital for Pakistan due to the fact that our country is very narrow at its middle and could well be cut into half by an Indian attack in force.

Strategic depth, we are further informed, will give respite to our armed forces which could withdraw into Afghanistan to then regroup and mount counter-attacks on Indian forces in Pakistan. I ask you!

I ask you for several reasons. Let us presume that the Indians are foolish enough to get distracted from educating their people, some of whom go to some of the best centres of learning in the world. Let us assume that they are idiotic enough to opt for war instead of industrialising themselves and meeting their economic growth targets which are among the highest in the world.

Let us imagine that they are cretinous enough to go to war with a nuclear-armed Pakistan and effectively put an immediate and complete end to their multi-million dollar tourism industry. Let us suppose that they lose all sense, all reason, and actually attack Pakistan and cut our country into half.

Will our army pack its bags and escape into Afghanistan? How will it disengage itself from the fighting? What route will it use, through which mountain passes? Will the Peshawar Corps gun its tanks and troop carriers and trucks and towed artillery and head into the Khyber Pass, and on to Jalalabad? Will the Karachi and Quetta Corps do likewise through the Bolan and Khojak passes?

And what happens to the Lahore and Sialkot and Multan and Gujranwala and Bahawalpur and other garrisons? What about the air force? Far more than anything else, what about the by now 180 million people of the country? What ‘strategic depth’ do our Rommels and Guderians talk about, please? What poppycock is this?

More importantly, how can Afghanistan be our ‘strategic depth’ when most Afghans hate our guts, not only the northerners, but even those who call themselves Pakhtuns?

Case in point: the absolute and repeated refusal of even the Taliban government when it was misruling Afghanistan, to accept the Durand Line as the international border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, despite the fact that it was a surrogate of Pakistan — propped into power; paid for; and helped militarily, diplomatically and politically by the Pakistani government and its ‘agencies’.

Indeed, it even refused the Commando’s interior minister, the loudmouth Gen Moinuddin Haider when he went to Kabul to ask for the extradition of Pakistani criminals being sheltered by the Taliban. We must remember that the Commando, as chief executive of the country, was pressing the Foreign Office till just a few days before 9/11 to use every effort to have the Taliban regime’ recognised by more countries!

This poppycock of ‘strategic depth’ can only be explained by our great military thinkers and strategists and geniuses: it is not for mortals like yours truly to make sense of any of it. :lol: Particularly because this nonsense can only happen after the Americans depart from Afghanistan. And what, pray, is the guarantee that they will leave when they say they will?

Why this subject at this time, you might well ask. Well I have just been reading David Sanger’s The Inheritance in which he meticulously lays out the reasons why he believes the Pakistani “dual policy” towards the Taliban exists.

On page 247 he states that when Michael McConnell, the then chief of US National Intelligence went to Pakistan in late May 2008 (three months after the elections that trounced Musharraf and his King’s Party, mark) he heard Pakistani officers make the case for the Pakistani need for having a friendly government in Kabul after the Americans departed.

When he got back to Washington McConnell “ordered up a full assessment” of the situation. ‘It did not take long … Musharraf’s record of duplicity was well known. While Kayani was a favourite of the White House, he had also been overheard — presumably on telephone intercepts — referring to one of the most brutal of the Taliban leaders, Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani, as a “strategic asset”. Interesting, for Kayani’s former boss, Musharraf is quoted thus in Der Spiegel:

Spiegel: “Let us talk about the role of the ISI. A short time ago, US newspapers reported that ISI has systematically supported Taliban groups. Is that true?”

Musharraf: “Intelligence always has access to other networks — this is what Americans did with KGB, this is what ISI also does. You should understand that the army is on board to fight the Taliban and Al Qaeda. I have always been against the Taliban. Don’t try to lecture us about how we should handle this tactically. I will give you an example: Siraj Haqqani ...”

Spiegel: “... a powerful Taliban commander who is allegedly secretly allied with the ISI.”

Musharraf: “He is the man who has influence over Baitullah Mehsud, a dangerous terrorist, the fiercest commander in South Waziristan and the murderer of Benazir Bhutto as we know today. Mehsud kidnapped our ambassador in Kabul and our intelligence used Haqqani’s influence to get him released. Now, that does not mean that Haqqani is supported by us. The intelligence service is using certain enemies against other enemies. And it is better to tackle them one by one than making them all enemies.”

Well, there they go again!

But back to ‘strategic depth’. Will the likes of Sirajuddin Haqqani, son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, help Pakistan gain this ‘depth’ in Afghanistan? Are we that gone that we need these backward yahoos to save our army? :((

PS By the way what about our nuclear weapons? Are they not enough to stop the Indians in their tracks? What poppycock is this ‘strategic depth’?!
Stan_Savljevic
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3522
Joined: 21 Apr 2006 15:40

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

IDSA COMMENT
Balochistan is no Bangladesh ----- Sushant Sareen
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/Balochi ... een_190110
As things stand, unless the Baloch nationalists are able to get their act together and set aside their petty differences in pursuit of ‘achievable nationhood’ within Pakistan or without, it will be only a matter of time before this latest upsurge in Balochistan will be brutally crushed. Given the demographics of the area which are loaded against the ethnic Baloch, and the growing attraction as also inclination of sections of Baloch youth towards radical Islamic groups like Jundullah, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Deobandi Jihadi groups, not to mention the active encouragement to such groups by Pakistani military and intelligence establishment, there might never be another uprising for attainment of Baloch national rights. From wanting to become a nation, the Baloch will almost certainly end up being reduced to being a minority ethnic group in their own land – a South Asian version of the Red Indians.
James B
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2249
Joined: 08 Nov 2008 21:23
Location: Samjhautha Express with an IED

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by James B »

X-post

Afghan poll shows India most favoured, Pakistan unpopular
In a new opinion poll, Afghans have rated India as the most favourable foreign country in Afghanistan and have rejected a role for Pakistan in their country.
The opinion poll, commissioned by by BBC, ABC and German TV ARD, also shows a sharp decline in support for the Taliban.


According to the findings, 71 percent of more than 1,500 Afghans questioned endorsed India’s multifarious role in the reconstruction of the strife-torn country.

India was followed by Germany (59 percent), the US (51 percent), Iran (50 percent) and Britain (39 percent). Pakistan was found to be the least popular country, with only two percent of Afghans viewing its role favourably.{Pukistan as usual at the bottom of the list} :lol: :rotfl:
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by NRao »

That 2% is perhaps ISI agents - Pakis posing as Afghans?
shaardula
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2591
Joined: 17 Apr 2006 20:02

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by shaardula »

The BBC survey from which that article above was written.
See pages 21-25
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/p ... anpoll.pdf

Q39. Now I’m going to ask what you think about some people and groups. Is your opinion of …… very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

[Very favourable,Somewhat favourable,somewhat unfavorable,very unfavorable, no opinion]
Taliban
[3,7,13,75,1] --> 88% unfavourable
Alqaeda
[2,4,13,77,3] --> 90% unfavourable
TSP
[2,13,32,49,3] --> 81% unfavourable

TSP, the great self proclaimed inheritors of mughal glory, trailing the barbarians who chopped children's hands, burnt schools and assaulted women, amongst other atrocities, by a mere 9 statistical percentage points!!!!

Q40. Overall, please say if you think each of these countries is playing a positive, neutral, or negative role in Afghanistan now?
[positive, neutral, negative, no opinion]

TSP
[9,13,73,5] --> 73% outright negative, atleast 86% cant bring themselves to say TSP is a good positive influence on Afghanistan, a country that has been in tatters, eager for help and looking to build relationships. 86% of people from such a country cant say a good word about its neighbor!!!

That is some strategic depth tsp has right there.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59882
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

Olaf Caroe in his book "The Pathans" also refers to this "lost tribes of Israel" origins and dismisses it.

However it has its psy-ops value to wean them away from current Wahabism. Human psyche would yearn for attachment to current successful beings.
Just as AIT was a German yearning to get out of "Hun" status in Central Europe.


Download link:

The Pathans by Olaf Caroe from Internet Archive site.
pgbhat
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4163
Joined: 16 Dec 2008 21:47
Location: Hayden's Ferry

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by pgbhat »

^^ was posted few days ago. Claims will be verified I guess. ;)
DAWN link wrote:However, an Indian researcher based at the National Institute of Immuno-haemotology in Mumbai will now spend time at a leading Israeli institute, Technion to study the findings of her research. Shahnaz Ali collected the blood-samples from members of the Pashtun Afridi tribe living near Lucknow, India. Previous research in a similar area failed to determine a link either way.

According to the report, 10 of the original 12 tribes of Israel were pushed into exile 2,730 years ago when the Assyrians conquered the kingdom of Israel. Modern-day Jews belong to the two remaining tribes of Benjamin and Judah, according to Jewish history. Ever since, speculation has centered on the exact whereabouts of the lost tribes. Claims of their traces in China, Burma, Nigeria and Central Asia have been offered in the past. It is believed that the tribes settled in areas around latter-day Northern Iraq and Afghanistan therefore making the Pashtun link the most compelling.

Navraas Aafreedi, an academic at Lucknow University said, “Pathans, or Pashtuns, are the only people in the world whose probable descent from the lost tribes of Israel finds mention in a number of texts from the 10th century to the present day, written by Jewish, Christian and Muslim scholars alike, both religious as well as secularists.”
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21233
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Prem »

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elizabeth ... 28354.html
Rethinking Afghanistan's Invisible History

Code: Select all

As summarized in 2009 by Gerald J. Schmitz, Principal Analyst, International Affairs, at the Parliamentary Information and Research Service in Ottawa, Canada:

"The historical record plainly shows that Afghan efforts to build a modern liberal democracy were resisted and later fatally undermined by great power and then Cold War political 'games', not that these efforts never took place or only did so in a intrinsically inhospitable societal environment. Of course they were championed by urban elites . But the key point is that for decades the principle external actors did more to hurt than to help secular democratic aspirations in Afghanistan. No wonder they never lasted. They were never given much of a chance. 

The international community has one last chance in Afghanistan. But without a better, a more complete, and honest set of assumptions about the secular democratic aspirations of Afghanistan's people, there is little chance that any 
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59882
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

The aboveis the reason for the buffer state status for Afghanistan agreed to by GB and Tsarist Russia in 19th century.

BTW M.K. Rasgotra the former MEA secy is also asking for a reverting to buffer state status in an op-ed.
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21233
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Prem »

Ramana
It means only one thing. Paki influence on Afghanistan must go and international community has to guranatee Afghan Neutrality .It will definitely leads to Pakis dismemberment as Pushtoons wont like to share their portion of reward/aid/subsidy by interested party and here is the rub, GOI;s latest declaration of India increasing monetary aid to Afghanistan.
KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4838
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by KLNMurthy »

shaardula wrote:The BBC survey from which that article above was written.
See pages 21-25
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/p ... anpoll.pdf

Q39. Now I’m going to ask what you think about some people and groups. Is your opinion of …… very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

[Very favourable,Somewhat favourable,somewhat unfavorable,very unfavorable, no opinion]
Taliban
[3,7,13,75,1] --> 88% unfavourable
Alqaeda
[2,4,13,77,3] --> 90% unfavourable
TSP
[2,13,32,49,3] --> 81% unfavourable

TSP, the great self proclaimed inheritors of mughal glory, trailing the barbarians who chopped children's hands, burnt schools and assaulted women, amongst other atrocities, by a mere 9 statistical percentage points!!!!

Q40. Overall, please say if you think each of these countries is playing a positive, neutral, or negative role in Afghanistan now?
[positive, neutral, negative, no opinion]

TSP
[9,13,73,5] --> 73% outright negative, atleast 86% cant bring themselves to say TSP is a good positive influence on Afghanistan, a country that has been in tatters, eager for help and looking to build relationships. 86% of people from such a country cant say a good word about its neighbor!!!

That is some strategic depth tsp has right there.
The poll indicates Afghans are normal people, though with a lot of problems. Look at the large proportion of "somewhat good' / "somewhat bad" responses, and the lack of worry about foreign influence. They deserve our understanding, support and help.

Compare with pakistanis, who seem to be collectively f***ed in the head.
RayC
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4333
Joined: 16 Jan 2004 12:31

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RayC »

Karzai plans to woo Taliban with 'land, work and pensions'


Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai swears in his new cabinet in Kabul. Photograph: Pool/Reuters

Afghanistan's president will unveil a plan in the next eight days to offer work, education, pensions and land to Taliban fighters who lay down their weapons.

Wooing Taliban

After Afghan Attack, Some See U.S. Role
By: Alissa J. Rubin | The New York Times


.... Some Kabul residents speculated that Monday’s attack had been engineered by the United States to justify staying longer in Afghanistan. “Maybe the Americans are behind it,” said Zia-ul Haq, 22, who works in a stationery store a few feet from the site of a second major attack on Monday, in which a militant driving an ambulance blew himself up. “Otherwise, how could they have come through all these security checkpoints?”

“It is masterminded by insiders,” he said.

Several Afghans said they thought that the main motive for the attack was propaganda: to show the world that Kabul, the capital, was vulnerable. But at the same time, no one seemed to think that the government was in danger of being overrun.
Afghans in Denial?
Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4226
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Rudradev »

James B wrote:X-post

Afghan poll shows India most favoured, Pakistan unpopular
In a new opinion poll, Afghans have rated India as the most favourable foreign country in Afghanistan and have rejected a role for Pakistan in their country.
The opinion poll, commissioned by by BBC, ABC and German TV ARD, also shows a sharp decline in support for the Taliban.

This is gold. The link needs to be archived, preferably added to the top of every Afghanistan/Af-Pak thread.

Now whenever a Barbara Crossette, Milt Bearden, Michael Scheuer or Zbignew Brzezinski start making noise about "Indian influence in Afghanistan is upsetting our ally Pakistan and disrupting the war on terror"... this data, from a Western source, can be used to stuff their pie-holes.
vish_mulay
BRFite
Posts: 643
Joined: 14 Jan 2010 05:07

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by vish_mulay »

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... term_afpak

Has this been posted before? if so apologies in advance.
Haven't heard the term "AfPak" coming from senior administration officials lately? There's a good reason for that. The Obama team has jettisoned the term due to Pakistani ire, according to special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke.

"We can't use it anymore because it does not please people in Pakistan, for understandable reasons," Holbrooke told the Women's Foreign Policy Group Jan. 8.
The Af-Pak terminology is disliked and has received strong criticism across Pakistan," the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs wrote in a recent report on Pakistan. "The Pakistani intelligentsia is not pleased with a de-hyphenation of the Indo-Pak equation and the hyphenation of the Pak-Afghan calculus. The issue is not only one of national pride; there is a genuine concern among the strategic enclave that the permanence of the threat from India has not eroded. ... There is objectively no interest for Pakistan to be fully involved in what is happening outside its borders, namely in Afghanistan."
Holbrooke was in India Tuesday as part of his whirlwind tour of South Asia, where he said that Indian participation is crucial to the success of the region. The Indians have made clear that they don't want Holbrooke to have India in his portfolio, so don't expect the term ‘Af-Ind' to surface anytime soon.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21233
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Prem »

U.S. Envisions a Continuing Civilian Presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration’s ambitious civilian push in Pakistan and Afghanistan will keep thousands of Americans in those countries for years — rebuilding Afghan agriculture, rooting out corruption and using the local media to counter anti-American sentiment.
Everyone pays lip service to the fact that the civilian strategy is important, but then no one pays attention to it,” said Richard C. Holbrooke, the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, who is scheduled to testify on Thursday before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.In the report, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said, “Our civilian engagement in Afghanistan and Pakistan will endure long after our combat troops come home.” The United States has already tripled the number of civilians in Afghanistan, from 320 early last year to nearly 1,000 now. It plans to add 200 to 300 this year, putting many of those people outside Kabul, the capital, in agricultural projects or in government ministries, where they will serve as advisers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/world ... diplo.html
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59882
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

From Nightwatch, 1/20/2010...
Afghanistan: For the record. The Afghan government announced its goals for expanding its security forces in the next three to five years. The plan calls for security force levels to reach 400,000, including 240,000 soldiers and 160,000 national police, the Associated Press reported today.

At present Afghanistan claims to have 94,000 police officers and 97,000 soldiers. A British Colonel who is a member of the planning team for the security forces said that the team would be asked to approve a goal of 134,000 soldiers and 109,000 police by the end of this year. That would increase to 172,000 soldiers and 134,000 police by the end of next year.

The numbers are mainly on paper. The purpose of this entry is to update readers about the official numbers.

The literacy rate and level of familiarity with technology are so low that the goal of adding 40,000 soldiers this year is not credible and can only be a paper drill. In the past 8 years, the annual average increase has been just over 11,700 soldiers and more than half desert. What would make anyone think an increase of 40,000 soldiers, regardless of their lack of capability, was achievable this year? Moreover, while Afghanistan needs more police, it urgently needs paramilitary police.

Maybe its para-military traing for police forces like CRPF and BSF is what is being talked about in the Gates visit to India?
RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17249
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RamaY »

How feasible it is to bring these selected Afghan police/army cadets to India for training in batches? India can charge suitable amount of money from US/NATO for these resources and make it a worthwhile exercise for these forces, w.r.t education and training?
CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by CRamS »

Rudradev wrote: Afghan poll shows India most favoured, Pakistan unpopular

Now whenever a Barbara Crossette, Milt Bearden, Michael Scheuer or Zbignew Brzezinski start making noise about "Indian influence in Afghanistan is upsetting our ally Pakistan and disrupting the war on terror"... this data, from a Western source, can be used to stuff their pie-holes.
Boss truth and what the Afghans want/feel won't sway these retards. Its US national interests that will dominate. And if this dictates that TSP must be kept happy, then so be it. The frustrating thing is that "Indian influence is detrimental to regional peace", "Indian presence in Afganisthan pissed off TSP" has assumed sinister connotations in western parlance that it is never questioned. Its like saying that X has a ligitimate grouse because X's neighbor, Y's wife is sexier, and this results in tension between X & Y. I fault the Indian govt and Indian elites and media to have let this nonsense assume a life of its own.
pgbhat
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4163
Joined: 16 Dec 2008 21:47
Location: Hayden's Ferry

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by pgbhat »

WSJ LINK wrote:Pakistan has been pursuing a military campaign in South Waziristan, a tribal region bordering North Waziristan that was also a safe haven for al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban. Already, Mr. Haqqani is beginning to feel the pressure in his rear flank in North Waziristan, say tribal elders and militants in the region.

Residents of Miran Shah, the main city in North Waziristan, say that a number of Islamic seminaries used by the Haqqanis have been largely abandoned in the past two weeks, except for a skeleton staff of guards. The Haqqani loyalists moved out partly because they feared retaliatory U.S. strikes following the CIA attack, said Gul Khan, the tribal elder.

But "they see that there are soldiers in South Waziristan and everywhere else," he said, referring to the most recent offensive against the Pakistan Taliban, which is taking place on Mr. Haqqani's doorstep. "They're all underground now. It's a very dangerous time."
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by NRao »

Pakistan snubs US over new Taliban offensive
Pakistan's army has said it will launch no new offensives on militants in 2010, as the US defence secretary arrived for talks on combating Taliban fighters.
vish_mulay
BRFite
Posts: 643
Joined: 14 Jan 2010 05:07

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by vish_mulay »

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/ ... ncil.thtml
An idea that has received little media attention in Britain, but is giving Foreign Office diplomats sleepless nights, is David Miliband’s push for a "regional stabilisation council" involving Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, to be unveiled at the international conference scheduled for January 28. The idea is seen as an innovate way to bring the three countries together, while at the same time allowing the Foreign Secretary, who will formally host the conference, to show leadership and initiative. The pretender to the post-election Labour throne needs something to get rid of his “Banana Boy” epithet.
India, however, is in no mood to budge. Senior Indian officials say the killing of 58 people in a suicide bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul, last year, was intended by Pakistan’s military establishment as a warning to New Delhi not to deepen involvement in Afghanistan. A "regional stabilisation council" is not going to solve these problems, but it may provide a useful platform to discuss a range of issues, or even simply provide greater transparency about (some of) the work that Indian and Pakistan undertake in Afghanistan. Even such modest progress could reap substantial benefits in its relations with both countries.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/lauraroze ... ml?showall
he State Department released a 39-page report detailing its civilian strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan today.

"While our combat mission in Afghanistan is not open-ended, we will remain politically, diplomatically, and economically engaged in Afghanistan and Pakistan for the long-term to protect our enduring interests in the region," the report, prepared by Special Representative Richard Holbrooke and his staff and signed by Hillary Clinton, said.
The New York Times' Mark Landler, who previewed the report overnight, noted that while "it's the most detailed blueprint yet for the civilian part of the administration’s strategy in the region," it "leaves important questions unanswered, including whether Congress will approve the financing to support such a high level of engagement over the long term, and what role the United States will play in Afghan efforts to draw people away from the Taliban."
RayC
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4333
Joined: 16 Jan 2004 12:31

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RayC »

Taliban Overhaul Image to Win Allies

Published: January 20, 2010

KABUL, Afghanistan — The Taliban have embarked on a sophisticated information war, using modern media tools as well as some old-fashioned ones, to soften their image and win favor with local Afghans as they try to counter the Americans’ new campaign to win Afghan hearts and minds.

The Taliban’s spiritual leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, issued a lengthy directive late last spring outlining a new code of conduct for the Taliban. The dictates include bans on suicide bombings against civilians, burning down schools, or cutting off ears, lips and tongues.

The code, which has been spottily enforced, does not necessarily mean a gentler insurgency. Although the Taliban warned some civilians away before the assault on the heart of Kabul on Monday, they were still responsible for three-quarters of civilian casualties last year, according to the United Nations.
Afghan villagers and some NATO officials added that the code had begun to change the way some midlevel Taliban commanders and their followers behaved on the ground. A couple of the most brutal commanders have even been removed by Mullah Omar.
Taliban Changing?

So they have realised that brutal behaviour does not work?
JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7128
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by JE Menon »

They are in deep shit. This is Hudaibiya at its slimiest. Haqqani and others are getting squeezed, and they can feel the pinch up in Rawalpindi. They need to buy time. Pakistan knows what's coming. The CIA attack had "tactical brilliance" written all over it, and guess who has demonstrated that sterling quality over decades. Of course, as usual, they overlooked the "startegy" or "stragedy" - whichever way u want to look at it.
animesharma
BRFite
Posts: 269
Joined: 29 Nov 2008 20:56

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by animesharma »

'World should take lessons from India's work in Afghan'
India's [ Images ] development efforts in Afghanistan provide "more bang per buck" and the international community should take some lessons from it, British High Commissioner Richard Stagg said in New Delhi [ Images ] on Friday.

His remarks come ahead of the London [ Images ] Conference, convened by Afghanistan, the UK and the United Nations on January 28, to coordinate global reconstruction efforts in the strife-torn country.

"India's reconstruction programme in Afghanistan has more impact per dollar than other international efforts. This is probably what we can learn from India," Stagg said.

He noted that the Indian efforts were more focussed on the civilian sector while international thrust was more on the military side.

Stagg said the European Union had plans to spend $ 1.3 billion on development programmes in Afghanistan this year.

However, he said that Indian efforts were "very underknown and undervalued", and expected External Affairs Minister S M Krishna [ Images ] to tell the London Conference what India was doing in Afghanistan.

"It is an opportunity for minister Krishna to tell what India is doing, why it matters and some of his perspectives on why the Indian approach is the one we must think about adopting ourselves," Stagg said.

Asked whether Britain had made any request to India to train the Afghan National Army, he said no such request was made.

Stagg said India could play an important role in any regional framework to stabilise Afghanistan.

At the same time, he said Britain believed that Russia [ Images ], Iran, China need to be involved in supporting a settlement in Afghanistan.

"They all have the capacity to make a resolution for Afghanistan... We need to be sure that they are part of a regional framework," the high commissioner said.

He said Afghan President Hamid Karzai's [ Images ] "credible and coherent" view for Afghanistan needs to be backed by the international community.

Ministers from more than 60 countries are expected to attend the London conference on January 28 and announce fresh commitments for reconstruction of Afghanistan.

Stagg noted that US President Barack Obama [ Images ] had in December announced a major surge of more than 30,000 US troops to Afghanistan in a bid to defeat the Taliban [ Images ] and the Al Qaeda
eh.. an attempt to make ak-pak a love triange.. kinda ap-pak-ind!
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by abhishek_sharma »

In preparation for a multi-nation London conference on Afghanistan, the Senate Foreign Relations Cmte. is discussing proposed international policy for Afghan civilians stricken by the war. U.S. Special Envoy to Pakistan & Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke and UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband provide a status report to the Cmte. in advance of the conference.

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2010/ ... istan.aspx
Muppalla
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7113
Joined: 12 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Muppalla »

Unquiet on the western front

Rohit Pradhan Posted online: Monday , Jan 25, 2010 at 0320 hrs

The British,” scholar-diplomat K.M. Panikkar noted, “did not wait for enemies to penetrate as far as Panipat before taking countermeasures as the Indian rulers of the Gangetic Valley had been accustomed to do...The emergence of a powerful state in the Kabul area, whether in the time of Kanishka, Mahmud of Ghazni or Ahmed Shah Durrani, profoundly influenced events within India; and yet, so far as the great states of the India-Gangetic Valley were concerned, they continued to remain ignorant of these developments and therefore, were unable to take the necessary steps to safeguard their independence.”
Had he lived through the 1990s, Panikkar would most certainly have added Mullah Omar to that list. It was not a coincidence that the proxy war in Jammu & Kashmir peaked when Afghanistan was under Taliban rule: it enabled the Pakistani military-jihadi complex to direct its resources against India. If infiltration and violence fell in Kashmir over the last few years it was as much due to the intensification of the conflict in Afghanistan as it was to international pressure on General Pervez Musharraf. If the United States withdraws from the region, leaving Kabul to the Taliban and without dismantling the military-jihadi complex, there is a risk that India will once again become the primary target.
A direct military retaliation against Pakistan in response to a future terrorist attack is risky and limited in scope. It is also politically unsound, because nothing serves the interests of the military-jihadi complex more than an old-fashioned war with India. Does this mean India has no option but to patiently wait for the day the Pakistani people overthrow their military overlords and somehow demobilise the hundreds of thousands of practically uneducated, radicalised and violent militants?

Well, it has. It involves ensuring that the US troops dismantle the military-jihadi complex, or at least severely damage it, before they withdraw from the region. India can shape this outcome by sending its own troops to areas in western and northern Afghanistan, so that the bulk of the US military capacity in Afghanistan can focus on the regions along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

The government of President Hamid Karzai and members of the erstwhile Northern Alliance have long argued for India to scale up its involvement in Afghanistan. Iran and Russia, both of whom share an interest in keeping the Taliban out of power, are far more likely to be comfortable and co-operative with Indian troops in Afghanistan’s western and northern provinces than with US troops. Over time, a co-operative arrangement between India, Iran and Russia could form the bedrock of a regional solution to a stable Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, the very mention of an overseas military deployment runs into a dogmatic wall of domestic opposition. First, the bad experience of the Indian Peace-Keeping Force (IPKF) in Sri Lanka in the late 1980s is brought up as if that episode should cause India to for forever foreswear the use of its armed forces beyond its borders. Apart from the significant differences in context, the Indian army has accumulated two decades of counter-insurgency experience in Kashmir and elsewhere that makes it a qualitatively different force from what it was before the Sri Lankan intervention.

Second, it is argued that sending Indian troops to Afghanistan will be seen as anti-Muslim. On the contrary, it is ordinary Afghans, a vast majority of who are Muslims, who will be the biggest beneficiaries of an Indian intervention. How can supporting the legitimate government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan be anti-Muslim? The idea that fighting the Taliban is a war against Islam is a misleading canard that only benefits the likes of Osama bin Laden and the Pakistani military-jihadi complex.

Third, it is not true that the Afghan people are uniformly hostile to foreign troops as it is frequently made out to be. Western troops were generally welcomed as deliverers when they expelled the Taliban regime in 2002, and recent surveys indicate that a majority of the Afghan people still support their presence. The notion that Afghans resent all foreigners is borne out of colonial romance and modern ignorance — ground realities suggest that Afghans seek security and good governance, like anyone else in their situation.

But can India afford to station troops abroad? Some critics of the idea estimate that it costs Rs 1 crore a day to maintain a brigade in Afghanistan. Let’s put this in context: last year, the defence ministry returned Rs 7000 crore of its budget due to its inability to spend it — enough for 19 brigades. We cite this to suggest that financial considerations do not rule out the option of foreign troop deployments.

India must continue providing long-term development assistance. India must ramp up training Afghan security forces. But successes from these will be ephemeral unless India deploys combat troops to Afghanistan. As the nuclear deal has shown, the Indian electorate does reward those willing to take risks in pursuit of the national interest. As US troops mobilise for a decisive year in Afghanistan, India has a unique opportunity to shape the future of the Hindu Kush and, in doing so, open the doors to peace in the subcontinent.

The writers work at ‘Pragati — The Indian National Interest Review’, a publication on strategic affairs, public policy and governance
RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17249
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RamaY »

^^^

That is a good one Muppala garu. I strongly support Indian military involvement in Afghanistan so that nation can come out of it's Pakistan problem.
Kanson
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3065
Joined: 20 Oct 2006 21:00

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Kanson »

Atleast someone is making sense. Whether we see the history or not, down the line at somepoint we have to act decisively, that will change the history for atleast another 50 yrs. Already Pak and Chinese are licking their hands. We always has the habit of reacting rather than acting. We didnt moved our butt until Chinese went for the Copper mines. Now we are whining about taking other mines in Afghan. Atleast in this let we act.
pgbhat
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4163
Joined: 16 Dec 2008 21:47
Location: Hayden's Ferry

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by pgbhat »

US commander signals peace talks with Taliban
Nato's top commander in Afghanistan has said increased troop levels could bring a negotiated peace with the Taliban.

US Gen Stanley McChrystal told the UK's Financial Times newspaper that there had been "enough fighting".

He said a political solution in all conflicts was "inevitable". His remarks came as the top UN envoy in Kabul said it was time to talk to the militants.

Afghan and Pakistani leaders are in Turkey to discuss tackling the Taliban-led insurgency in their countries.

This is the fourth such meeting initiated by Turkey, which has offered to broker talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

Both Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his Pakistani counterpart, Asif Ali Zardari, will attend an international conference on Afghanistan in London on Thursday.
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by abhishek_sharma »

http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/post ... liban_plan
A Russian official told Turtle Bay today that his government will not remove Taliban militants from a U.N. list of individuals once suspected of engaging in terrorist activities, thwarting U.S. and U.N. aims to entice so-called moderate Taliban to make peace or switch sides in the Afghan war and support the Western-backed government of Hamid Karzai.
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by abhishek_sharma »

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/26/world ... ategy.html
The United States ambassador in Kabul warned his superiors here in November that President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan “is not an adequate strategic partner” and “continues to shun responsibility for any sovereign burden,” according to a classified cable that offers a much bleaker accounting of the risks of sending additional American troops to Afghanistan than was previously known.
They show that Mr. Eikenberry, a retired Army lieutenant general who once was the top American commander in Afghanistan, repeatedly cautioned that deploying sizable American reinforcements would result in “astronomical costs” — tens of billions of dollars — and would only deepen the dependence of the Afghan government on the United States.

“Sending additional forces will delay the day when Afghans will take over, and make it difficult, if not impossible, to bring our people home on a reasonable timetable,” he wrote Nov. 6. “An increased U.S. and foreign role in security and governance will increase Afghan dependence, at least in the short-term.”
On Nov. 6, Mr. Eikenberry wrote: “President Karzai is not an adequate strategic partner. The proposed counterinsurgency strategy assumes an Afghan political leadership that is both able to take responsibility and to exert sovereignty in the furtherance of our goal — a secure, peaceful, minimally self-sufficient Afghanistan hardened against transnational terrorist groups.

“Yet Karzai continues to shun responsibility for any sovereign burden, whether defense, governance or development. He and much of his circle do not want the U.S. to leave and are only too happy to see us invest further,” Mr. Eikenberry wrote. “They assume we covet their territory for a never-ending ‘war on terror’ and for military bases to use against surrounding powers.”

He continued, “Beyond Karzai himself, there is no political ruling class that provides an overarching national identity that transcends local affiliations and provides reliable partnership.”

In a second cable, dated Nov. 9, he expressed new concerns: “In a PBS interview on November 7, Karzai sounded bizarrely cautionary notes about his willingness to address governance and corruption. This tracks with his record of inaction or grudging compliance in this area.”
He also noted worries that the success of Mr. Obama’s Afghanistan policy hinged on Pakistani forces’ eliminating militants’ havens in the mountainous region near the Afghan border.

“Pakistan will remain the single greatest source of Afghan instability so long as the border sanctuaries remain,” he wrote. “Until this sanctuary problem is fully addressed, the gains from sending additional forces may be fleeting.”
“As we contemplate greatly expanding our presence in Afghanistan, the better answer to our difficulties could well be to further ratchet up our engagement in Pakistan,” he wrote without elaboration.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by shiv »

Blast in Kabul
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8260419.stm
Six Italian soldiers have been killed in a bomb attack on a military convoy in the Afghan capital, Kabul.
Two military vehicles were reported to have been hit by a suicide car bomb. At least 10 civilians were also killed and dozens injured, officials said.
The Taliban have claimed responsibility for the attack in the city centre.
anuj
BRFite
Posts: 187
Joined: 13 Nov 2008 00:50
Location: Third World Country

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by anuj »

India's Afghan role is hot topic at London meet
LONDON: Ministers and military experts from around the world are set to gather in the British capital Thursday for a day's meeting on Afghanistan marked by an unprecedented bid to persuade India to undertake a more high-profile role in the embattled country.

"I believe that the neighbours of Afghanistan should come together to help sustain an infant democracy like Afghanistan. India has a big role to play," British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Monday amid speculation over proposals for a regional stabilisation council' involving Afghanistan, India and Pakistan.

Although details of the proposals are being kept under wraps, and Islamabad has already opposed involving New Delhi, commentators and strategic experts said NATO powers were looking increasingly at India for fresh ideas to resolve the Afghan crisis.

"The road to success for NATO's strategy runs through India," wrote a commentator in The Spectator, a respected British magazine that supports the Conservative Party, currently in opposition.
However, experts said New Delhi will reject the proposal if it felt that would open up backdoor attempts to discuss Kashmir.
Check comments.
JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7128
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by JE Menon »

Nobody need worry unduly. We are going to be totally Chankiyan and SDRE Bania(n?) about it. :)

But worry duly. :twisted:
Post Reply