munna wrote:Again Mupallaji United Andhra camp needs to pick its fights carefully, instead of dealing with core of the problem dragging in provincial origins of civil servants would weaken your cause through a pliable media. The only sensible course of action is to hit at one thing that politicos hate to lose-"power", rest all will fall in line.
That was the reason for this backpedalling and slow motion. I wanted to reply to you regarding the politics but I was lazy. It is Friday so let me indulge.
Regarding your comment about weakening/strentheing of movement, I do not think so as it is pure muscle power and political power that is being unleashed here. INC has its limitations and their own folks will bring the Tamilian-are-unfair-to-us deliberately. If it was me, I would have avoided all the Tamilains in the committe from deciding the future of AP. Why get into nuisance that can snowball into regional controversies?
INC is sitting pretty in the state so far. INC's calculation was that IMs+Dalits+tribals will give them 30% of vote share for sure and these folks will be least bothered about the split though MIM is making hot and cold statements. They only need another 10% (or divide the opposition )to grab both states (Andhra and Telangana). They have the room to take the risks here and hence they took Telangana risk. From the central party analysts there is a desperate need to cut the AP-clout ( that has grown due to YSR inside INC).
United-AP forum looks like a uniting factor for Seemandhra folks but in real politics, I am not sure how much that will translate to votes. Here are some possibilities:
(1) There is a possibility ( it is serious and this is the reason for backtracking and formation of the committe etc.) that INC in that region might split from the mothership and join NCP (may be
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/smile.gif)
). Even in such a situation also Dalits and Tribals may still vote for whatever the INC remains. It all depends upon how all the parties will fight and not split the non-INC vote.
(2) The industrialists ( not the bloody real estate ones ) from this region are the silent movers and shakers and they can pull the strings and they are still not interested in the split. They will be behind the new formations. The rumor is that they are part of grand-pull-UPA-down strategy that is going on in the rumor mill. Sharad Pawar as PM is being touted seriously. The chances are very narrow as the mother-INC is not that stupid to not sense these moves. However, watch the Ajit pawar and Udddav Thakrey's meetings. There are certain alleged-secret-meetings that Sharad Pawar is having these days. Jaya amma was also in Dilli meeting various leaders but she is meeting mostly INC.
(3) They may think that this is all not worth it and may go for a Andhra state. Coastal folks may not really mind that much and they will just get back to their business of "watching each worthless movie 100 times", "trying for the next wave to US" and "making more money". However Rayalaseema will be the one that will not stop the agitation and they are verry verry violent folks. They will spoil any coastal "softening" here.
Telangana politics are very straight forward. In the short run INC will win handsdown. In the long run BJP has chances. I cannot visualize some regional outfits taking a shot here. I do not see Telangana-TDP surviving for a long time. A large section will merge with BJP and some with INC. TRS is history anyway.
2009 election is a watershed election in terms of decimating all regional satraps and parties except TDP(though it lost). This split will complete that last bastion as well is the thought process. As you are Punjabi allow me to put it this way. "Bring in Brindranwale to finish off Akalis" is equivalant to "bring in Telangana (TRS) to finish off TDP". I do not expect a Punjab problem here as it is not a border state unless Rayalaseema folks go for total bloodshed. I do not expect though.
However, the initial moves by UPA 2.0 is seen as a threat to even allies. Here are folks who are not happy with UPA:(1) NCP (2) Mamta (3) Laloo (4) Mulayam and at a very long shot (5)DMK. They all want space which is eroding due to manacing speed of INC. Anti-INC front like those in the 80s and early 90s is getting on the drawing board. BJP under the current RSS rule is thinking of taking a backstage by means of being part of any government even if is not in the leadership role. They want to implement Jharkand and Bihar model at the center which means Nitish or Sharad as PM with someone from BJP as Dy.PM. The Left may be ready too give outside support. The numbers are there and AP-INC split could be complementary.
If the above materializes, Telangana will be frozen as that cannot make to common minimum program.
I beleive INC must have calculated the INC-split factor in really back-peddaling the Telangana. The commitee is going thru financial, capital, water resources etc. These are difficult to solve unless some region is mananimous to giveup something. They may go for a status-quo.
Chalo enuff for now.