Intelligence & National Security Discussion

[AdityaM]

Does everyone in your family share a name?
this is just so confusing to my nontactical nonstrategic intelligence

[tsarkar]

Vivek,

Unless you explain the rationale and TANGIBLE benefits of your strategic insight, it’s just the emperor’s new clothes. Fancy, hyped yet without substance and practically useless.

Firstly,

India and Israel share a vendor-user relationship. Neither influences nor endorses each other’s policies.

India and US engage each other wherever there are common grounds, as any two nations would. As earlier, neither influences nor endorses each other’s policies.

For example, India has advocated engaging Burmese regime for influencing them and introducing gradual reforms while US has advocated international isolation and drastic reforms. Both India and US agree to disagree on Burma, and work on other common areas.

Now, one may cite example of joint exercises to show India & Israel/US strategically coming close. That is an incorrect assumption. The sole purpose of exercises is to learn from each other newer and better ways of doing things. Nothing more. US troops learn from CIJWS while Indian pilots learn performing at large complex air combat scenarios at Red Flag.

For example, if Indian cricketers go to South Africa to avail advanced medical & physiotherapy there, as well as learn from South African coaches, it will be foolish to assume that India and South Africa will form a joint cricket team against Australia or Pakistan.
So if US jumpers come to Agra and jointly jump, it would be stupid to assume they’re planning a joint mission against NWFP terrorists.

For conducting such operations, much more extensive and intensive training is required. Any notion that India and US are planning a strategic operation is purely a figment of a journalist’s imagination.

Secondly,

Nations don’t have permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.

When you make friends with the Godfather, the Godfather’s power, influence and friends works in your favour but Godfather’s enemies power, influence and friends works against you. So while Godfather’s assistance may solve one problem, entirely new – and potentially bigger – problems may arise.

So neither Israel nor US derive ANY benefit stepping in India’s favour. Nor does India know what pound of flesh it might have to pay in return for assistance.

Lastly,

Designations are dime a dozen flying around in all spheres of life. JNU campus is flush with intellectuals and strategists who wave banners praising Hugo Chavez. Everyone know the real effect waving banners has on the actual situation – zero. Anyone with access to New Delhi or Washington DC cocktail circuit with social acquaintance to Army, MoD, Industry personnel with tid-bits of information gleaned over drinks starts claiming he knows insider stuff.

Or sharing a drink or attending a social occasion together makes him a part of informal secretive old boy’s club that does strategy planning and decision making

An insight’s worth, whether dawned on a jawan or a general, is the usefulness of the insight and the actual results achieved by acting on the insight.

Like at Haji Pir 1965, after achieving initial objectives, the battalion made an informed and well thought decision to push on its own initiative to maintain the momentum and achieved a major strategic victory 8 km inside PoK overnight.

[shyamd]

Stealthy ATS plays smart to nab Pune blast accused

Nikhil S Dixit / DNAMonday, May 31, 2010 2:06 IST

Mumbai: It was a cloak and dagger mission for the Anti Terrorism Squad (ATS) from the beginning.

The arrest of Abdul Samad, 24, accused in the Pune German Bakery blast, had all the elements of a perfect crime thriller: a well-hatched plot, some old school sleuthing and the red herring.

The shroud of mystery over the way Samad was tracked and nabbed finally at the Mangalore airport is yet to lift completely.

The ATS, on its part, is uncharacteristically low-key. In fact, they have not even officially arrested Samad for his role in the bakery blast case; he has been arrested in a rather insignificant case of arms possession. His arrest in the Pune case will happen eventually, say ATS sources.

Explaining the strategy put in place to nab Samad, a senior officer said the needle of suspicion had zeroed in on Samad in March itself, a month after the blast.

The CCTV camera minutes before the incident had led the police to build their probe around three suspects, including Samad.

“However, when the ATS tried to locate him, it came to light that he had fled to Dubai,” the officer said. Left with the preliminary task of establishing the identity of Samad, the ATS summoned help from the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW).

Soon, an undercover agent was on his way to Dubai. “The agent clicked Samad’s photo and sent it back to India. Investigators here matched the two photos and it was confirmed that the person in
Dubai was indeed Samad,” the officer said.

Verification done, it was important to issue look-out notice against Samad across all airports in India. “But the problem was, issuing the notice would involve risk of alerting Samad as well. Once issued, it would have been leaked to the media,” the officer said.

The ATS then issued a look-out notice against him in a lesser known case. “On March 25, look-out notice was issued against Samad in a 2009 case of illegal arms possession case registered by the Kalachowkie unit,” the officer said. The notice was then sent to all airports in the country, including the Mangalore airport.

Since the look-out notice was in a less important case, it did not attract much attention and went unnoticed. After this, a team of ATS officers was position at the Mangalore airport for over a month till Samad was finally arrested on Monday last week.

[Sachin]

^^^ Even in the above news report looks like ATS and R&AW have not revealed their tactics (and they should not). Simple things how did they know that hero Samad was having a "Ghar Vapsi", and then deciding where the "Reception party" would wait with the regimental band etc.

[Brando]

Dubai has always been a hot bed for these Islamic terrorists and their pakistani masters. RAW should have a permanent base there with a dedicated rendition team to pick up these agents and send them over to India via private flight, much like how the US uses rendition. If India had such daring, Dawood Ibrahim and his cartel would have been crushed decades ago. The whole extradition song and dance with Dubai and the Emirates reticence to act against their fellow Muslim brothers could easily be side stepped.

[Aditya_V]

Funny, even here they are worried the Media would leak information out and Samad would know. Remeber 26/11 where the Media was contiously showing what the Indian soldiers, Police were upto. I sometimes really wonder whose side these guys are on

[kit]

X posting

Must Have for Indian Coastal Security

http://www.janes.com/events/exhibitions ... sona.shtml

http://www.janes.com/news/defence/jdw/j ... _1_n.shtml

Scuba training is relatively cheap and easily accessible. Even a single terrorist equipped with a limpet mine or IED [improvised explosive device] could wreak havoc, with huge financial, environmental and/or political consequences

[shyamd]

Dubai has always been a hot bed for these Islamic terrorists and their pakistani masters. RAW should have a permanent base there with a dedicated rendition team to pick up these agents and send them over to India via private flight, much like how the US uses rendition. If India had such daring, Dawood Ibrahim and his cartel would have been crushed decades ago. The whole extradition song and dance with Dubai and the Emirates reticence to act against their fellow Muslim brothers could easily be side stepped.

Man, Dubai royals giving havens to Dawood was purely a business transaction. Nothing "Islamic" about it. Somali pirates have been taking refuge there since 1700's after interdicting Indian sea trade. Even up to the 70s Dubai was a major haven for criminals/pirates and that is how they have prospered. They did play ball with India in the 80s, but that changed during the 90s when Dawood came through. There were heavy investments by TSP politicians into Dubai and by Dawood - ensuring a safe haven. Things are always changing, now India is the biggest trading partner to the UAE, Sheikh Mo realises this and is now changing his colours - hence the open message to India during his trip to Delhi. There are no permanent friends and enemies in politics.

[anmol]

Kashmir mulls comprehensive opinion poll: BBC

A recent survey in Indian- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir has produced "striking results". The poll was conducted by Robert Bradnock - an associate fellow at the Chatham House think-tank in London - and here he assesses the results.

Given the significance of the 63-year-old dispute over Kashmir - for India, for Pakistan and above all for Kashmiris - it is remarkable how few attempts there have been to test opinion in Kashmir itself about attitudes to key issues in the dispute.

Two polls in the last decade have sampled opinion in Indian Jammu and Kashmir. Opinion has also been explored outside Kashmir in the cities of India and Pakistan.

Yet the poll published on 26 May at Chatham House was the first ever to be taken on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC).
Urgently felt

Its key results are striking.

Unemployment and other economic issues, for example, rank high across the whole of Pakistani held Kashmir and Indian held Jammu and Kashmir.

Indeed economic issues were among the few that united opinion in nearly all the sampled districts on both sides of the LoC.


At first glance economic problems seem to be the top priority in the minds of many Kashmiris, and more important than solving the dispute itself.

Yet when asked how important the dispute was to them personally, 80% overall said it was very important - 75% in Pakistani-administered Kashmir and 82% in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.

The search for a solution is thus urgently felt.

On many other issues, however, opinions were sharply divided, notably by geographical distribution.

The headline figures of 44% (in Pakistani-administered Kashmir) and 43% (in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir) opting for independence, for example, conceals wide regional disparities.

While in the predominantly Muslim Kashmir Valley in Indian-administered Kashmir, the proportion in favour of independence ranged from 74%-95%.

But in the four districts of the predominantly Hindu Jammu part of Indian-administered Kashmir, there was virtually no support for independence at all.

In response to the question "Will an end to militant violence help to end the conflict?" opinion ranged from 0% in Rajouri to 98% in Anantnag and Kathua, while in Pakistani-administered Kashmir it ranged from 27% in Kotli to 75% in Bagh.
Resolution

This was a professionally designed and implemented poll. I worked with Ipsos MORI (based in London) on the poll's design.

FACTS Worldwide (Mumbai) and Aftab Associates Private Limited (Pakistan) used specially trained interviewers to carry out the face-to-face interviews in four languages.

It was funded by a charitable organisation run by Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Dr Gaddafi's foundation had already been funding development projects among Kashmiri refugees in Pakistan and India, and in 2002 approached me at King's College London to discuss issues surrounding the resolution of the dispute.

In line with his view that civil society has a vital role to play in resolving disputes worldwide, he sponsored the poll.

Engaging Kashmiri opinion emerged as one of the key features of the poll.

Three quarters of all Kashmiris - on both sides of the LoC - believe that all sides of Kashmiri opinion should be consulted in negotiations over the future of Kashmir.

An optimistic sign is the apparent sense of flexibility among many Kashmiris in seeking a solution.

Only 27% of all Kashmiris are in favour of the LoC in its present form (22% in Pakistani-administered Kashmir and 29% in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.)
All-or-nothing

In three districts in Kashmir valley support for the present LoC falls to 1%, while in Kargil it is 0%.

However, if the movement across the LoC were to be fully liberalised, support for keeping the LoC rises dramatically to 85% overall.

Even in the Kashmir valley it rises to over 80%, and in Pakistani-administered Kashmir to over 90%.

It is perhaps the attitudes to the LoC that are most significant.

Both Pakistan and India have been very reluctant to consider openly any question that the LoC might be made permanent.

For Pakistan in particular the issue has been presented in all-or-nothing terms, and the possibility that the LoC might be made permanent has been taboo - as it is for some major Kashmiri groups.

Yet there are many signs that the LoC has become a de facto part of life, and for some a vital part of their security.

Indeed, only 8% said that they were not in favour of the LoC in any form.

As the poll showed, while 8% of the total population claimed to have friends or family on the other side, less than 1% had visited the other side of the LoC in the last five years.

In this light it is not surprising that in Poonch and Rajouri, two key border districts in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, more than 90% are in favour of keeping the LoC.

The conversion of the LoC to a "soft" border reportedly played a large part in the Musharraf government's back channel talks with India.

The poll finding that across Kashmir around one quarter are strongly opposed to changing the LoC while a further half would accept it if it is liberalised gives a strong signal that this could be a fruitful area for further negotiation.

And the poll shows that there is more room than many had anticipated in Kashmiri opinion itself for negotiation.

The bigger question is whether the governments of India and Pakistan have the confidence, the power and the goodwill to meet the urgent aspirations of the Kashmiris for a peaceful and permanent settlement.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/10207909.stm

[svinayak]

Kashmir mulls comprehensive opinion poll: BBC

The bigger question is whether the governments of India and Pakistan have the confidence, the power and the goodwill to meet the urgent aspirations of the Kashmiris for a peaceful and permanent settlement.

Why are foriegner interested in Indian peoples opinion. If they do not know the history of India and the rights of the hindus and historical places how can they understand the problem

[PratikDas]

Kashmir mulls comprehensive opinion poll: BBC

The bigger question is whether the governments of India and Pakistan have the confidence, the power and the goodwill to meet the urgent aspirations of the Kashmiris for a peaceful and permanent settlement.

Why are foriegner interested in Indian peoples opinion. If they do not know the history of India and the rights of the hindus and historical places how can they understand the problem

Why do you assume they want to understand the problem? Why was Cyril Radcliffe given the task of partitioning India and not Mountbatten?

Troublemakers needn't concern themselves with ethics.

[sum]

X-post:

From Orbat:

#

Sandeep also told us that the Indian army has requested two mountain strike corps for use against China and/or Pakistan in addition to several new divisions that have been approved. He says the Prime Minister is unlikely to approve the mountain strike corps for fear of upsetting China.
#

At this point you would normally expect Editor to fly into a rant about cowardly Indian politicians, but we aren't going to do it because the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, is an upright, honest, and humble technocrat. He deserves our respect. Rather, we will confine our rant to cowardly national security advisors and the Foreign Ministry. Time for them to understand that if India worries about China getting provoked, India is tacitly conceding its subservience to China.
#

Is this something any Indian should quietly accept, particularly when China, instead of keeping a low profile as did India after the accords of 15+ years ago, has been steadily up the ante? No. if India wants respect from China, it has to earn it by standing up for itself.
#

Nonetheless, Sandeep suspects the strike divisions will be raised, but individually put under different corps so as not to seem provocative.

Unbelievable fear of the Chinese and their reaction to what we do with our army...great "aspiring" superpower we are

[AjitK]

Holes in hacking story, Andaman Major called to Delhi for questioning again

However, counter-intelligence investigations have confirmed that the Major’s computer contained a large number of classified Army presentations including those pertaining to the Strategic Forces Command, and even minutes of meetings at the Army Commanders Conference.

Counter-intelligence has conveyed to the Home Ministry that action should be taken against the Major, an officer of the Bihar regiment posted with the 108 Brigade. Government sources told The Sunday Express that Home Minister P Chidambaram has personally discussed this matter with Defence Minister A K Antony.

According to top sources, the investigations have unearthed the following:

* Laboratory tests have confirmed that a second attempt was made to delete the files while the Major’s computer was in the custody of the authorities. Despite surveillance and subsequent investigations, the person responsible for the attempt has not been identified.

* Through x-ray techniques and data recovery methods, investigators have found that the officer’s computer may have contained a total of 3,000 Army presentations including those marked highly classified or secret and belonging to areas where the Major had no access. Military Intelligence says the hard disk contained two secret presentations and 50 highly confidential documents — the rest was course study material.

* The Major got the classified data from three sources, but has not yet revealed his contacts during repeated questioning.

* The Army brass believes that the Major could have been acting alone, but Home Ministry officials suspect more people could be involved.

[shyamd]

The spy who was never
Manoj Joshi
New Delhi, June 6, 2010

Life was looking rosy for Commander Mukesh Saini in the summer of 2006. He had just taken premature retirement from the Indian Navy, where he had worked as computer security specialist on deputation to the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) in New Delhi. A week after he retired at the age of 43, he cruised into a dream job with Microsoft in New Delhi. But on the night of June 11 his world came crashing down. His house in Delhi Cantonment was searched by a police party while he was away in the US. Then, when he returned post haste, he was detained for interrogation for two days, and finally arrested and charged with giving information to Rosanna Minchew, a third secretary at the US Embassy.

Saini spent three and a half years behind bars at Tihar Jail trying to understand what happened. He, along with two other persons - NSCS systems officer Shib Shankar Paul and the Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) director of computers, Ujjal Dasgupta - have spent more time in jail than each one of them would have if convicted for their 'crime' of passing information to Minchew. Saini finally got bail in the middle of last month, but the other two remain incarcerated at Tihar.

As of this date, four years after their arrest, their trial has yet to begin. How could Indian citizens, protected by its laws and judicial process, be treated as denizens of Saddam Hussein's Iraq? The story that Saini himself pieced together through his diligent use of the Right to Information (RTI) Act is a shocking tale of illegal use of authority and vindictiveness on the part of the police and the intelligence services. Even the Pakistani terrorist and sole surviving 26/11 foot soldier, Ajmal Kasab, got a fairer deal from the government and the judicial system.

Saini was accused of leaking four documents to Minchew, of which two were hard copies. These were the draft of the nuclear doctrine and the impact of a possible 'Kra Canal' on India. And there were two other documents contained in two hard disks that the police had seized from Saini's house. These were SIDE, or a proposal for an intelligence agencies' network and the minutes of the Indo-US Cyber Security Forum on January 28, 2003.

The charges relating to the first two documents are patently absurd. One was a public document released to the media by the BJP-led NDA government in 1999. The other is an analysis of possible consequences on India of a canal on the Kra Isthmus that links Thailand to Malaysia. This was Saini's own paper sent out to various agencies in the government.

It never received official status, leave alone a classification. The story of the other two documents is interesting. On filing an RTI application with the Central Forensic Research Laboratory (CFSL), Chandigarh, Saini obtained the forensic log of the two documents. Both showed they had been accessed June 3, 2004 and August 27, 2004. The CFSL analysis showed the disk itself had been accessed last in June 2005 and its last access to the Internet through the disk had taken place on June 15, 2005.

These dates are important. Through another RTI application, this time to the Indian Embassy in Washington, D.C., Saini has shown that Minchew, the alleged agent to whom he was supposed to have passed on the information, was issued a visa only on August 3, 2005. There is a terrible irony here. Saini says that he was scrapping his old computer and being conscious of the fact that no deletion programme was effective, he removed and kept the hard disks with him while selling the rest of the machine as scrap.

Everything about the case - from Saini's arrest and the search in his house to the collection of evidence allegedly nailing his guilt - is mired in a trail of illegalities, which includes tampering of records, misrepresenting issues to the courts and other wrongdoing on the part of the Delhi Police.

The shadowy hand of the Intelligence Bureau is also apparent, but only just. There should be no doubt, though, that it is the key driver in the operation to railroad Saini, Paul and Dasgupta.

Take the arrests. Saini was arrested on the night of June 30/July 1, 2006. Paul had already been arrested earlier on June 11, 2006, and Saini and Dasgupta were now in the police/Intelligence Bureau's cross-hairs. Sub- Inspector Sajjan Singh of the Delhi Police Special Cell sent a letter to the NSCS chairman asking whether the two documents that related to the nuclear doctrine and the Kra Canal were classified.

The reply of the NSCS, which was issued on the letterhead of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), whose director Vinod Mall was an IB officer on deputation, wrote to say that neither of the two documents was classified. (At the time, the NSCS had no chairman and the head of a subsidiary outfit, the JIC, Dr S. D. Pradhan, was looking after it.) On June 30 (in a typed letter where all the dates are conveniently written by hand), the Special Cell wrote again to say that the previous reply "was not in the required format" and that they wanted the NSCS to comment on the Kra Canal and nuclear doctrine documents, as well as on the two other documents recovered from the hard drive.

The replies were again from Mall.

The letters were not dated and their file numbers were written by hand, and they claimed that the minutes of the cyber security forum was a classified document, as was the document on SIDE. Both, as we have shown, these could not have been transmitted by Saini to Minchew.

Mall has written three letters in response to the Delhi Police's search for information - one had its letter number and date typed, but the other two had the letter references written in hand, and neither were they dated. Sloppy work? No, this was deliberately done to fudge the record.

Saini's RTI search shows why this is so and his suspicion is that they were probably "manufactured" following his arrest. It became evident soon enough when an RTI request was put to the NSCS. The reply was that the NSCS central registry had not received the letter of the Special Cell. Yet it acknowledged that a reply had been sent out by Mall. Though there was no record of the dispatch of letters from the NSCS, the claim was that they had been "personally" received by Sajjan Singh on June 30. On appeal, the NSCS also acknowledged that they "do not possess any file or document on which opinion was formed" on the Delhi Police's request. So, there is no record as to why a letter purporting to be NSCS's reply said what it did.

As an officer of the Armed Forces, Saini should have been protected by the Criminal Procedure Code's Section 197 requiring sanction of the government for his prosecution. But even here, the system failed. The police sought sanction first from the NSCS. By this time, the NSCS had a fulltime head, former diplomat Vijay Nambiar, and he refused to give the sanction.

The police should now have logically gone to the Indian Navy.

Instead, they went to the civilian section of the Ministry of Defence - it had had no real link to Saini.

They attached a draft sanction order and the ministry, without applying its mind, gave the goahead on April 17, 2008. By this time, Saini had already been in jail for 22 months.

There are many abiding mysteries about the case, primarily as to why the police have been so vindictive.

All the evidence suggests that the case is a fabricated one.

At most, Paul is guilty of keeping some documents at home and being infatuated by Minchew. Dasgupta, who seems to be peripherally involved, is 66 years old and suffers from cardiac problems, has been denied bail along with Paul.

The bigger mystery is Minchew.

If she's the Mata Hari made out by the IB, why does the charge-sheet not make any mention of her? If three people can be accused of transmitting intelligence to a "foreign agent" why was that agent allowed to get away? And why's there no Interpol red corner notice out for her? Perhaps Minchew did belong to the US intelligence service, but that should not be surprising.

Saini, Paul and Dasgupta, too, were from an intelligence-related agency and the purpose of the Indo-US Cyber Security Forum was to operationalise official cooperation between Indian and American intelligence services on cyber security.

Saini has had a lot of time to reflect on the monstrous injustice that has been done to him. But, remarkably, he is not a bitter man.

Stoic may be the best word to describe him. He is happy, he is out of jail, that his college going daughter and school- going son have managed to keep their head above water. "My wife bore the brunt," is all he is willing to say of the travails of his family.

BUT the obstacle race of the trial still looms and his financial situation is "pathetic". He says his savings will hold out for another six or seven months, "After that, who knows ?" He is a highly qualified man - with Master's degrees in management and computer sciences and a great deal of expertise in cyber security, the reason why Microsoft was willing to hire him in the first place.

"But now who'll give me a job?" he says with a resigned smile.

Despite his bitter experience, Saini hesitates to accuse the government for his predicament. This writer has followed this case from the beginning and it is apparent to him that the real reason why three people who knew each other professionally have been the target of this brazen frame-up is turf. That simple four-letter word so dear to our bureaucracy sums up the motive for the IB's witch hunt.

All three persons in their own way were specialists in software that could network intelligence.

This is something the IB did not want because it believes that it alone can safeguard sensitive information. This is the reason why it had to destroy the Indo-US Cyber Security Forum, which would have led to greater interaction with the US, and this is the reason why it destroyed the lives of three people who represented organisations who had other proposals for sharing intelligence.

What is disturbing is the pattern of impunity in the functioning of the police and the intelligence services, one that does not bode well for the country. If three men, two of who were senior officers in the armed forces, can be treated this way, what hope is there for the poor tribal of Dantewada who is declared a Maoist, or the young Muslim accused of terrorism? It is no secret that one of the main reasons why the Mumbai carnage took place was that the bits and pieces of information floating around with various agencies were not available in a collated form for analysis. Ironically, it is Mumbai that has helped IB win that battle and the entire intelligence networking has now been taken over by the Ministry of Home Affairs. Whether the IB can also win the war against terrorism through such sectarian tactics remains a moot question.

[animesharma]

@above article
Its very insightful and unfortunate. It's not terrible for an intelligence organization to tamper with the system apparently a systematic failure. The worst is, Military having no defense for its personnel.

[babbupandey]

The article has been written with a one-sided perspective. I would like to dig up some details before commenting on it. If it is alleged that he was working as an informer to the US government, then I find it interesting that he immediately gets a job in Microsoft and travells to USA.

[Kati]

A paid article the above one is.
A concerted effort to get these three guys out of jail, and casting a doubt on IB
for nullifying the Indo-US joint cyber security forum. Actually IB is doing an yomen's job
in catching the moles quite efficiently. How come the author of the above article doesn't mention that dasgupta received 12 lakh rupees from Rosanna, and a promised trip to Singapore, etc etc...?

[munna]

^^Caeser's wife has to be above suspicion. People working in sensitive locations are not normal people and hence will always be under enhanced surveillance. It is a choice one makes before joining such organizations.

[Vivek Raghuvanshi]

Sarkar wrote:

Vivek,

Unless you explain the rationale and TANGIBLE benefits of your strategic insight, it’s just the emperor’s new clothes. Fancy, hyped yet without substance and practically useless.

===================================================

Sarkar,

As you are aware Bharat Rakshak is OSINT platform frequented by ISI and 2nd Bureau.

Read between the lines and think if we give airbases to Israel and United States in India, how will India benefit by strategic alliance.

It is called Scenario Planning.

OSINT platform is not the right platform discussingStrategy.

Learn fromChinese 2nd Bureau:

All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved

- Sun Tzu

[Vivek Raghuvanshi]

Sarkar wrote:

Like at Haji Pir 1965, after achieving initial objectives, the battalion made an informed and well thought decision to push on its own initiative to maintain the momentum and achieved a major strategic victory 8 km inside PoK overnight.

===========================================

Sarkar,

Thank you for bringing up Haji Pir.

Mother India CANNOT understand Strategy -Remember

Where is Haji Pir now???

If the Mother India had the moral courage to honor the sacrifices of Indian soldiers, it would have kept Haji Pir, but No.. somebody had to go wagging their tail to ISI Mentors and return Haji Pir

Where do the terrorists infiltrate from?

If Mother India understood strategy,Haji Pir should have been with us.

But we have to wagging our tail to ISI and return Haji Pir

Do not tell me what strategy Mother India understands:

[tsarkar]

Vivek Raghuvanshi,

All I find from your posts are words conveying hype and no substance.

As you are aware Bharat Rakshak is OSINT platform frequented by ISI and 2nd Bureau. OSINT platform is not the right platform discussingStrategy.

Since you cannot justify your so called strategy, you suddenly claim that BR is open source, hence you cannot disclose the rationale. Your so called strategy is as naked as the emperor and you are claiming fancy material. The truth is you pass your fantasy as strategy and now use "BR is open source" as a fig leaf to cover your intellectual nakedness.

Read between the lines and think if we give airbases to Israel and United States in India, how will India benefit by strategic alliance. It is called Scenario Planning.

Yes, I did war gaming and scenario planning while in service, as well as during my tenure at DSSC Wellington. Thankfully, the quality of intelligence of participants in those exercises were far higher than the intelligence you are presently exhibiting.

I am sure your dad and uncles might have given you a guided tour, but your own abilities and intelligence couldnt take you there.

Mother India CANNOT understand Strategy -Remember

You are no judge of Mother India or her sons, hence YOUR PATRONIZING IS EXTREMELY OFFENSIVE to those who are actually giving their blood, toil, tears and sweat for Mother India.

And your being an army brat with uncles too doesn’t give you the right to patronize or be judgmental of Mother India and her sons.

Haji Pir was returned under a USSR brokered peace in exchange for land captured by Pakistan at Chamb close to Jammu Srinagar highway.

Do not tell me what strategy Mother India understands:

If you understood one iota of strategy, you would actually be in the thick of things, rather than pasting self glorifying designations from self promoted obscure institutions on an internet forum. Your posts are all hype and zero substance, without a hint of rational thought or logic.

[Vivek Raghuvanshi]

Sarkar,

You are a baby hiding behind fake and dummy alias

Enjoy your empty rhetorics

[Vivek Raghuvanshi]

Sarkar,

You belittle the importance of Haji Pir

This is why you do not understand strategy

[Dmurphy]

Sarkar,

You are a baby hiding behind fake and dummy alias

Enjoy your empty rhetorics

Dude, this ain't not good!

[Vivek Raghuvanshi]

Murphy,

You forget to see the provocation by Sarkar.

I know my capability and some arm chair expert called Sarkar cannot use language which he uses.

Check him. Put a leash on that baby

Or Option 2: Ban me.

Cheers

[Siddhartha]

Option 2 is far better... I think....

[archan]

Or Option 2: Ban me.

Will do. If you keep attacking others here, that is.

[abhischekcc]

Read the writing on the wall:

China is already kicking our backside by using Naxalites and Maoists

It is called Low Intensity Conflict.

Gone are the days of High Intensity Conflict

Do you have any evidence that China is supporting these people?

[Samay]

Sarkar,

As you are aware Bharat Rakshak is OSINT platform frequented by ISI and 2nd Bureau.
It is called Scenario Planning.

OSINT platform is not the right platform discussingStrategy.

Learn fromChinese 2nd Bureau:

Vivek ji,
would you please elaborate on that aspect ,with a little substantial proof?

Are you trying to say that BR-osint is run by isi/chinese proxies?

[abhischekcc]

Yet another ISI man held!!!

ISI agent held near Air Force station

MOHALI: An Inter-Services Intelligence agent was arrested, with maps of vital defence installations, near the Indian Air Force station at Mullanpur in this district on Saturday. The police recovered a pistol with 20 live cartridges, maps, pictures and code numbers of IAF stations and airports in different parts of the country from Irfan Ulla, 29.

Mohali SSP Gurpreet Singh Bhullar told journalists here that Ulla was an ISI agent and close aide of dreaded terrorists Ranjit Singh alias Neta, head of the Khalistan Zindabad Force, and his associate Gurmeet Singh Bagga, who is based in Germany. — PTI

The trickle is slowly turning into a torrent!!!

News reports also indicating that the top bomb maker of KCF in India was held today. He was behind the blasts on the Dera and aborted blasts outside the AFB and bottling plant in Punjab..

There is private house not a few kilometers from NDA campus with electronic antennae sticking out of it. It is called Dar-E-Salam.

[Vivek Raghuvanshi]

Samay,

There was provocation by Sarkar. He behaves like a child.

Either a human being can understand the micro picture or macro picture

Intelligence requires ability to understand both the micro and macro picture.

Samay, Bharat Rakshak is OSINT platform.

Everybody knows it.

Just because one does left - right - left does not mean one is born for Intelligence

Haji pir was given to Ayub.

Lal Bahadur Shastri was killed in Russia

oops media knows it has heart attack

Indian PM was the State Guest in Russia and we suck up to communists

Why was Lal Bahadur Shastri killed in Russia, Oops died in Russia in mysterious circumstances.

OSINT platforms are monitored Samay by the enemy.

I did not say that Bharat Rakshak is run by ISI / 2nd Bureau but everything on OSINT is monitored

Cheers

[Vivek Raghuvanshi]

Issuing me warnings for what?

Reign in your pups

Otherwise ban me.

Bharat Rakshak is a joke.

I give FREE advice and the moderators give me a warning

This is not some rangroot camp

Ban me babes!

[Rahul M]

@above article
Its very insightful and unfortunate. It's not terrible for an intelligence organization to tamper with the system apparently a systematic failure. The worst is, Military having no defense for its personnel.

if true. truth be told, I've lost all expectations of honesty from manoj joshi.

[animesharma]

@above article
Its very insightful and unfortunate. It's not terrible for an intelligence organization to tamper with the system apparently a systematic failure. The worst is, Military having no defense for its personnel.

if true. truth be told, I've lost all expectations of honesty from manoj joshi.

I can't agree with that. My experiences tell you have to be there to know the truth, there is no certain way to that.
I do not want to get into probability,but sure..considering how agencies had operated in india since independence, I can second your opinion.

(Lets not get into probability discussions.. )

[tsarkar]

somebody had to go wagging their tail to ISI Mentors and return Haji Pir

Haji pir was given to Ayub.

No. Haji Pir was returned in exchange for equally “strategic” land captured by Pakistan threatening Jammu Srinagar highway. The Indian team at the negotiations (not LBS alone) weighed options and took a conscious decision at that point of time. It was a tough decision to take, as recollected by LBS's daughter, as the soul searching undertaken by the team was conveyed by LBS on phone to her.

Nukavarapu,

My PoV -
The present naxal movement is home grown based on tribal exploitation by contractors, miners, local administration and politicians (something I had personally observed first hand at Jagdalpur in 1993). However, criminal elements have taken over and today, the movement has become a huge extortion racket.

Logistics -
Their more sophisticated weapons are those looted from security forces, like Orissa state barracks raid, EFR camp raid and more recent CRPF ambush. Ammunition replenishment is also via raids, and leakage from the state system. Small thana cops give their ammo in return for protection. Explosives are pilfered for mining companies, that have extensive presence in these states. They also have an extensive desi arms manufacturing setup, and you’ll find naxal rank and file armed with such weapons.

I don’t agree to PC’s statement that Naxals get arms from Myanmar arms bazaars – AFAIK there has been no evidence like foreign weapons observed with / captured from naxals. Plus it’s a logistics nightmare for them moving such weapons from NE to Maoist heartland without detection.

Ideology –
Indian Maoists have close links with Nepali Maoists, who have Chinese political support (note – not ideological, because China’s ideology has changed). However Indian Maoist ideology is driven on local socio-political issues, primitive concepts like grabbing political power by force, and has presently diverged to a criminal extortion racket. While political support could possibly be provided by the Chinese via Nepal Maoists, ideologically they are miles apart from Chinese ideology today vis-à-vis what it was in the 60s.

So in conclusion, my PoV is that we don’t have evidence in hand to conclude there is Chinese logistics/political/ideological support to Indian Maoists.

[negi]

No. Haji Pir was returned in exchange for equally “strategic” land captured by Pakistan threatening Jammu Srinagar highway. The Indian team at the negotiations (not LBS alone) weighed options and took a conscious decision at that point of time. It was a tough decision to take, as recollected by LBS's daughter, as the soul searching undertaken by the team was conveyed by LBS on phone to her.

I do not wish to go into whine mode but can someone enlighten me i.e. if we indeed won the war (whatever that means) then why trade ? No chanakian answers please.

[Sanku]

We did not "win" the war in the sense of 71, we won the war because Pakistan "lost" in its key objectives and we succeeded. Our objectives were modest, status quo.

Added later --> not to mention that it was a exceedingly one sided battle, with Pakistan flush with latest toys courtsey unkil and we suffering from a broken army (thanks to Nehru) and a population seriously dependent of American food aid (then)

Then Pakistan was actually much better off than us, it had inherited the entire grain bowl and trade centers of Western India and the people who had made it in those areas were still building their lives still in India, the green revolution had yet not happened etc...

Dark days.......

[chetak]

I don’t agree to PC’s statement that Naxals get arms from Myanmar arms bazaars – AFAIK there has been no evidence like foreign weapons observed with / captured from naxals. Plus it’s a logistics nightmare for them moving such weapons from NE to Maoist heartland without detection.

tsarkar ji,

These buggers are extremely crafty about being photographed with their sophisticated weapons.

They completely avoid showing their prime weapons except the rusty double barrel and country made type of weapons to the DDM to deliberately foster the view that they are just poor simple rural folks being hounded by the police with AKs and what not. Their supply lines run deep to the northeast as well as from kashmir to hidden LTTE stockpiles in the south.

They are well armed to the teeth with as sophisticated weapons as the IA.

Their income runs into hundreds of crores including their "taxes" and funding from the EJs.

[abhischekcc]

Do you have any evidence that China is supporting these people?

Just for discussion sake, do you believe its not?

Not China, most likely Russia.

[wig]

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2010/20100608/nation.htm#7

what is a shocker, needle of suspicion is now pointing towards officials at the Army headquarters here for allegedly providing clandestine help to a Major-level officer facing allegation of espionage. The officials have not been identified so far.

The attempt could have helped the Major escape the ongoing probe being conducted by the National Investigating Agency (NIA). The Major, belonging to 21 Bihar Regiment, was in possession of more than 2,500 secret and sensitive presentations of the Forces stored on his personal computer. The probe has revealed that the documents were deleted when the computer was supposedly seized by the Army authorities, well placed sources in the government confirmed today.
The documents stored on the computer are not the kinds to be in the possession of a Major. Some of these presentations were contingency plans that the Forces had drawn up to counter Pakistan on Rajasthan and Punjab frontier, besides modes of deploying Forces in battle scenarios.

The probe will also cover as to who provided the documents and how did the Major got hold of the sensitive strategic documents normally discussed at the highest level. The Major got the classified data from multiple sources, but has not yet revealed his contacts during repeated questioning.

The Major, in his initial questioning, had maintained that his computer might had been hacked by the ISI. Sources said it was hard to believe that how the ISI knew that the Major had stored such sensitive data on his computer