Bharat Rakshak

I dont think they would really want a war - but just fringe action to raise the prospect for diversion purposes. So I talked of brinkmanship.

Pratyush - you must remember that Indian security forces have had to live with this nightmare every year for Republic day, Dussera, Diwali, Ganesh Chaturti, Independence day and all other public holidays apart from sporting and other events such as IPL. Our people are good and competent, despite setbacks, failures and traitors.

Shiv,

You are obviously correct. This is a nightmare they must live with. I am just pointing out How difficult a task safe conduct of the CWG will be for the security apparatus (SF). Moreover as a Delhiite, I have experienced the safe conduct of hundreds of mega events over the years. Which is the best compliment any one can give to the SF.

So once again I don't question the competence of the SF just am acknowledging the challenges being faced by the SF. Thats all

AdityaM, Can you take look at my earlier post and come up with what can TSP do?



I think a Mumbai style West coast operation is ruled out for India is ready for it as it would be repeat.

How about a helicopter borne assault on Chennai or northwards from a "direlect" Panamanian registered container ship? Does IN monitor all shipping and inspect all the vessels regardless of origin or again give it a pass claiming Coast Guard juridiction? And put on the "deer in headlights" stance.

I want off the wall scenarios and what it takes to counter them. I know Indian security forces are hardworking but Mumbai and many other attacks have already taken place.

Also what about putting the IAF and IA on alert during the CWG to reduce the usual six month readiness response? And move IN units to the Arabian Sea as forward deployment for "exercises".

most likely is a spate of bomb attacks across non metro cities dressed up to look like local grievances

Naxals will be used.

Every Pakistani attack has been an escalation from the previous one. My vote goes to:

A deliberate introduction of a contagious disease, such as plague in one of the Tier 2 cities at the time of CWG. The city will be smaller like , say, Nagpur and far away from Delhi to have plausible deniability. The impact will be immediate in terms of cancellation of CWG due to travel restrictions, not to mention economic impacts. Chances of being traced back to Pakistan are low as well.

The only disadvantage from a Paki perspective is that a public spectacle of Ghazi jehadis killing the kuffr Hindus wont be seen, with the associated bloody mayhem. For a perverted Paki general mind, the sight of a jehadi killing innocent unarmed men, women and children of the kuffr is a sign of their manhood and superiority. The pleasure to them is almost sexual.

Can Uncle also have a kujli that India is now shining and Pak is left behind

http://www.addictedtowar.com/docs/The.W ... .World.pdf
WHAT I’VE LEARNED ABOUT U.S. FOREIGN POLICY

This is a possibility. Use of catastrophic events is one way of doing this.
Removing the focus away from the flood victims and the misery is high priority. After 2005 earthquake the news about the victims and relief work vanished from the media

^^^ India is not shining?

Has anyone thought that an attack on CWG with athletes from CW (read firangs) will further aggravate the 'feelings' for the RoPers? If at all, the assault will be more symbolic in nature and target the SDRE junta.

Agree. So what symbols are potential targets? Please make a comprehensive list. We can then narrow down based on what was already tried out.

It's pretty evident. It is not as though India has gone far ahead or is out of Unkils control that Unkil needs to resort to Kayanisque folks to bring India back in line. There is nothing to be jealous off.
The present government in India continue to sell Indian assets and have made India a massive market for Unkils goods and services i.e., GMO and Nuke Liability bill. It is to unkils advantage to keep this large market going.
Perhaps Unkil does not need to leverage the Pakis as much as done in the past.

That said, it is also to Unkils advantage to occupy/ situate troops in the northernmost territory of India. That way you control a large market by controlling its b^&ls i.e., water, trade routes. That way, you also have troops and presence close to China and Russia. It also gives you access to special trade routes in the region.

I suspect unkils moves will be very specific going forward and the threat perception from current Indian government is very low. Ultimately it is 3 or 4 things for Unkil & Aunty -
1) will we be able to extract value out of that region and what geographic, demographic configuration does it need to be to extract value
2) can we extract value continually till there is nothing left
3) what configuration do we need to ensure that in the long run the region is no military, competitive and civilizational threat to us
4) how do we minimize inflow of human resources from the region while generating a high return on investment

The questions are not complete by any standards but some answers will tell us how these folks think about us and whether Pakistan will sustain. Of course, if one were Pakistan either one could become the best "pros&**tute" out there or become a blackmailer of sorts.

My personal radar feels that chances of a vimaan apaharan from any of the ME air hubs carrying angrezi or dakshin afreeki atheletes is high. This vimaan could be diverted to northeastern eye-ran or worse, into AFG itself. What follows will be dhamkee from Talib or even AQ itself for money but the real damage will unfortuately be a H&D downer for desh and the rehyphenation.

Also, notice that Dawood might have very little space to play around in TSP after the floods, so he might try a armed stunt in Mangalore-northern SRK (Kozhikode-Kasargod-Mallapuram). The place is hot now with Madhani proceedings on. Something like railgaadi durghatna.

Repeat of Akshardham is quite possible.

Something big in J&K where plausible deniability ("it was Kashmiris, not us") and which will draw international attention to J&K.

So the options listed so far are:
1) Mumbai style terrorists attack on non-metor cities
2) Something in J&k to have palusible deniability and bring back world attention
3) Attack during and the CW Games
4) Attacks blamed on naxals
5) Attack on temple towns like Akshardham
6) Attack on West coastal South India like Kerala-Mangalore region. Blame locals
7) Attacks on symbols of India instead of the CWG

We next need to dig deeper into these options as to why and wherefore. Try to cite any press reports on surveillance or nexus between diparate elements.

There is a pattern that we are missing probably : all the peripheral countries around India are riding an increasing level of tension and conflicts. In Nepal there is a renewal of Maoist-non-maoist contest, in BD there is a renewal of AL-BNP+Jamat contest, In SL the internal fight is not resolved. In all three , somehow the military is involved, directly or indirectly. Myanmar shows similar trends. All of the regimes are somehow coming under a stress-period at the same time that raises questions about the future stability of these regimes.

If Pak moves on India, it cannot be entirely on its own - it does not have the resources to sustain a campaign for long. So what if a strong supporter and "master" of Pak is planning this carefully? In steps :

(1) Destabilize the peripheral countries first. This draws India's attentions out and spreads it thin to tackle potential situations all along its borders.
(2) Activate the three internal fifth columnists. The Jihadis, Maoists, and possibly sections of EJ allied or having bases within various ethnicities or social groups.

Cross border collaborations can occur between Maoists inside and Nepal Maoists, between Jihadis inside concentrated in possible networks all along the Gangetic valley and west and southern coastal India and those in BD+Pak, between EJ'ist in south and centre and east and surviving networks in SL possibly through deep cover elements of the LTTE. The "master" can possibly organize coordination of even collaborations between the three.

Pak is unlikely to exercise the nuke option on its own. Near its own ground, contamination may reduce the land value of the feudal ownership. However a shift of the regime along with PA more towards the Talebs may actually reduce the threshold for this aversion. Any actual conflict between USA or its proxies and Iran could be a trigger that is used also by the "master" to trigger a conflict within India.

Pak will increasingly use third parties inside India, but keep sufficient red herrings for India to start accusing Pak. This will then serve as the excuse to mobilizie against India but not go to war actually until and unless the internal "trouble" is sufficiently distracting for the GOI.

There are two major potential flashpoints being prepared to draw China and Russia into "war" - the eastern arena around Korea [Russia conducted Vostok on the eastern front at a very large scale this July with Chinese observers at a "crucial" phase], and the central one in AFGIRan.

I am not sure how FPwallahs in ND, or IA command will take it - but maybe, firm understandings to form a NATO like or a proto-SATO mutual defence agreement that binds the armies of the peripheral nations in a stable framework would be one way of thwarting the political destabilization route being followed by the "master" given that the political side of the regimes there are yet to attain maturity. It is not entirely impossible that some of these peripheral nations may be forced to go to the "army-rule" format in he foreseeable future and we should be able to tie them up. The second urgent step from the GOI side should be a targeted elimination of the Maoist, Jihadi and EJist networks on an accelerated level. If they are allowed to exist longer, they will be activated as part of the general geo-strategic game for Asia.

India cannot be safeguarded by strictly defending and taking measures within borders. The external inputs from and through neighbours have to be gripped - covertly, diplomatically or otherwise, by actively pursuing a programme to lock in the infrastructure to supply potential violence within India that exists in the neighbours. Even if only Pak remain outside this ring, that would be a great reduction in the threat.

Watching the news last night - I saw that there was a piece about Sikhs being threatened and asked to leave J&K.

It occurs to me that a big push was planned on Kashmir before the floods and it will be retstarted soon. The stone throwing etc was Paki inspired. The Hindu has had two articles on the Islamists in Kashmir. This is the mechanism by which a Taliban like system is being introduced into J&K.

Whatever it is it needs to be crushed. But expect trouble in J&K in the near term.

There is a point which is missing from the all the discussions involving how involved the Indian Army can get in CI and LICs in around the country.

The deployment plans of IA are effective enough to defeat pakistan in a full fledged war, hold China at the border AND defeat a major insurgency in the country. That is why pakistan and its masters need two insurgencies in India to keep it under strategic pressure. (This was one of the reasons why I had supported strong action by Narendra Modi, otherwise Gujarat would have gone the Kashmir way).

All major insurgency actions against India should be seen in the light of this strategic condition.

The recent disturbance in Kashmir was necessary to engage Indian Army and keep it away from the border - so that paki troops could be deployed against taliban/AQ forces on paki's western border. But the floods have put paid to this angle. The floods have changed the strategic dimension of the subcontinent (temporarily, at least) by :
1. Disengaging PA from the requirement to fight jehadis (PA generals now have a ready reason not to fight them).
2. By making it impossible for IA and PA to start full scale hostilities against each other. The high waters also give the assurance that any invasion (by either side) will be difficult.

These two reasons make continued disturbance in Kashmir both impractical and redundant respectively, at the same time. Hence, it was winded down.

The future course of the game will be determined by the condition in which pakistan will be after the floods. It is very much possible that by early next year, pakistan will be on the brink of break up. The signal development for that would be whether PA is divided against itself or not - which would happen on the lines of jehadi versus non-jehadi segments.

India's best interests would be served if PA breaks down - removal of the threat on the western border, destruction of the Kashmiri movement, release of IA to pressurise China. It is interesting then that our best interests will be served if the jehadis capture large parts of PA

America's first option will be what it always has been - to support paki state as far as possible, as long as it does what US tells it to (or makes a great show of doing so). That will not be possible if the jehadis break up PA - it will no longer be possible for PA generals to maintain the lie that they can get the job done. In that case, US will withdraw all aid, and paki elite will flee the country. As it is, they have nest eggs maintained outside pakistan for such an eventuality. In that case, pakistan, which does not have a strong middle class, will lose its top class as well - effectively leaving the country without direction. This vacuum will be filled in by the jehadi elements.

What is really the wild card is America's approach to these talibs. It will be very difficult for the self appointed leader of the free and civilzed world to claim that position if they associate with talibs. This is where I feel Osama can be sacrificed - it will enable America to declare victory and cozy up to the talibs.

Rohit,

I am not rally sure, if the Pakis and the Talibunies really want to show their superiority then they will not discriminate between the athletes and the SDREs. They will be really be indiscriminate cause this will be the ultimate escalation from Mumbai, add to this the possibility of Biological agents being used, you have th most spectacular terrorist attack in the world.

All India will do in return will be to issue umpteen more dossiers.

JMT

PS:-I have deliberately discounted the use of Chemical warfare agents.

I for one think that a 1972 olympics repeat is a possibility. A hostage situation like what black september did would be a juicy target for the pigs. Similar to the mumbai situation, only this time with a totally international set of people being held - which would open tons of international pressure on us rather than the mumbai case where we could take more time to clear things out.

I don't think anything will happen soon. abcc pointed out how attacks can be used to relieve IA pressure by drawing attention elsewhere, however if you think in that line of reasoning, an attack would have happened during the flood, because the Paki military forces will have been involved in flood relief and away from the border.

But at this point, any large terrorist attack will make it plainly obvious as to who's behind it and only increase pressure on Pak, so it wouldn't serve them any advantage.

With that said, I don't really know what tactical gains Pak was aiming for with 26/11 either so I could be wrong.

Totally agree, GOI establishment urgently needs to fully secure transit airports in ME (Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Bahrain) and SE Asia through CISF. With Malaysia (a former Brit colony) steeping even more into Islamic type rule (with their recent provincial level shift to gold and silver currency), a mid-air version of Munich 1972 looks very strong, which is why I'd stated that a vimaan apaharan drama with gora atheletes being played out in either eye-ran/Yemen/Indonesia/Malaysia. Both scenarios could tax our MARCOS and IN's capabilities.

India is too big for a Munich style attack to take place on the ground as the perpretrators will have no place to escape.

A strong discouraging message could be sent out if a culprit like Afzal Guru is hanged before the opening ceremony, this could actually play spoilsport with any preparations for nefarious activity and might help agencies to even foil an attack.

I think nothing of any sort would happen in near future. A bomb going off here or there no longer counts in India. Pakis are $hit deep in trouble and the Generals want to garner as much moolah as possible before sympathy and flood waters go down. So whatever terrorism has to happen will happen next year once the Jehadis are again ready for 26/11 deux. Right now they too would be busy saving there goats, cows and women folk.
As far CWG games, Suresh Kalmad and his cohorts have done a far better job than ISI to discredit India for pretty long time to come. All Pakis need to do is prayer for couple of good rains just before opening ceremony to disrupt the CWG.

More than preventing th next attack folks like SS Aiyar trying to facilitate it. The call for withdrawal of troops from border due to TSP flood CBM, to protect CWG etc are moves that will egg TSP to get go for it. On the contrary I would task the IN to Arabian Sea for naval exercise and and keep the IAF strike squadrons on alert to reduce the reaction time.

Well some could say that SS Ayiar is doing a "Sakunian" (I am using it instead of Chankyian) cool move - pretending that the border has gone soft to entice and trap Paki adventures with CWG as bait!

Would fall for it if it weren't for his track record of self loathing.

SLIME = Self Loathing Indian Media Elite.

Actually, the ruling Indian govt thru its home minister has warned that Saffron Terror is the main rising terror threat to be worried about:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... Lr7vNUMdOQ

http://sify.com/news/chidambaram-assure ... ajghf.html

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article593450.ece





Since I'm not allowed by the moderators to accurately describe what kind of country India really is, and what kind of politicians it really has, let me celebrate our mutual admiration society by congratulating the ruling govt on their marvelous professionalism in bringing the Saffron Terror threat to our attention.

Enjoy the blissful paradise, everyone...

So think counter intuatively - either pak establishment was not behind the attacks, or they calculated that the Indian govt would not attack them. If first, we need to ask who was actually behind this attacks. Is second, we need to understand that this time paki tactical brilliance actually worked.

My opinion on this is a little bit of both - like Buddha's path of moderation

The thing is pakistan could not have hoped to keep India off its back if enormous pressure on India would not have been beared. There are two countries that can actually prevent India from going to war despite this level of provocation - US and KSA. Both have our economic balls in their hands.

IOW, these three countries together could have possibly engineered 26/11, or at least Pak along with a section of US intelligence.

The biggest clue as to the motive of 26/11 is the fact that it was postponed from September to November - this is open knowledge and published in various news agencies.

So what changed between these 2 months? Obama's election.

Obama was the President elect during this time. GWB admin was still in place. War mongers in his admin engineered 26/11 so as to curtail Obama's options even before he took over as President. Remember that Obama had promised to reduce troops in Afghanistan as well as bring 'moderate' Taliban into power to help with that. This is anathema to sections of US establishment that still thinks in cold war terms of military bases and keeping lines of communication open to oil sources.

If we look at these people from the point of view of a police investigation, they had the means (links to Jehadi groups), the motive (curtailing Obama's options and continuing afghan war), and the opportunity (Obama's election).

The use of Daood Gilani shows that existing links were used in the execution of the massacre.

Recall that during the Gilani fiasco, two accusations were being bandied about - 1. that Gilani is a double agent, 2. that Gilani is a US agent.

The debate stopped when the lesser of the two accusations became irrefutable - that Gilani is a double agent. This alowed US and Indian media to bury the other accusation - that Gilani is a US agent. This was neither proved nor disproved - just buried.

Sanjay M,

Still the moron Digvijay singh took the matter of the Coloured terror with the PM. With Hindus like him, we dont need jihadirs and EJs

Nightwatch on the two suspects on the Dutch flight. 9/1/2010

Australian and US citizens warned of terror attacks before Commonwealth games.

Let's give Pakistan another 25 million Dollars and thank them in anticipation.

The CWG are done. Just putting in a post here to express appreciation to everyone in charge of security who ensured that the games went off with no threats other than a few snakes that were caught and released back in the wild.

Goes to prove the old saying "If you see a snake and a Paki together, get the Paki first"

Unless I am missing something the poll ended in June 2009.. the 39% (within 3 months) and 43% (within 200) or for that matter next 15% ... How good was the prediction?

85% were wrong. The next attack came in Feb 2010 - the German Bakery blast in Pune.

In hindsight, it appears that 96% were right in anticipating that there would be a terrorist attack. The timing may have been off. But we know that another one is coming.

One thing we have to note the terror attacks that were thwarted. We may never get to hear about them but we can be certain there were some. To that extent, the predictions could not be termed inaccurate.