Checkmating China: China's North East
ramana wrote:RajeshA, The idea is to do the same as PRC i.e. support those US allies who are against PRC. How does supporting NoKo work from this Point of View? It doesn't.
Having said that I support Korean re-unification as NoKo is one of the last holdouts of Asian Socialism. Supporting SoKo achieves the secondary objective of Korean Re-unification which has its own dynamics in the North East Asia.
ramana garu,
On further thinking and some research, my thinking on this has evolved a bit, though some sound strategy still eludes me. So some thoughts:
>> Have we given sufficient thought to how a united Korea would deal with China?
I am of the impression, that North Korea has multi-dimensional advantages for PRC.
- It is a proxy to keep Japan and South Korea on the edge.
- It helps boost China's own sense of importance in East Asia, through the six-party talks, etc.
- It acts as a conduit for Chinese proliferation to other places - Pakistan, Myanmar, etc.
- It makes China feel supported in the international arena, with chamchas around it giving vocal support - North Korea, Pakistan.
- Most importantly, North Korea acts as a levy, a bulwark against China's unraveling.
Some background here.
Ethnic Koreans in China
Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok is the name for Koreans living in China. Their population is around 2 million with many more expatriates from North Korea and South Korea swelling the population to around 2.5 million.
Mostly the younger generation has been integrated into Chinese society. But Korean is still widely spoken in this group. Many of the Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok are Buddhists.
Between 2002 and 2006, China conducted the
Northeast Project with the help of some 'traitorous' Koreans living in China. It is based on the principle of
Zhonghua minzu.
{Please use Google Chrome for Translations}, which tries to give all types of Chinese ethnic minorities a single identity.
Korea sees itself as the inheritor of
Goguryeo, from which the name Korea originates. With the Northeast Project's efforts to lay claims on Goguryeo as a Chinese regional identity, there is some friction between the Chinese and the South Koreans.
Since a few years there has been an upsurge of anti-Korean sentiment amongst the Chinese. In fact the effort is to make this sentiment take hold among the Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok (ethnic Koreans in China). To some extent the South Koreans themselves are responsible. There are some
There is some discrimination against Chaoxianzu in Korea. Of course there will be, people tend to be foolish. It is like Cowbelt Indians snigger about the Mongoloid features of people from North-East India. It so happened that these Chaoxianzu have been very active on the Internet and have let other Chaoxianzu back home in PRC know, that they are discriminated and they don't feel Korean, and that they are in fact Chinese.
Wikipedia wrote:Many Chinese Nationals of Korean descent, known as Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok or highly offensively called Ddong-Po(똥포, Brother of Excrements) {I think, this is propaganda}, also suffer from discrimination. While they believed that common heritage and language would make them fit into the society, they found that they would be looked down upon and mistreated compared to ethnic Koreans coming from wealthier countries. Many work in "3D" jobs, referring to dirty, difficult and dangerous work conditions. With the South Korean economy in recession, many Joseonjok were accused of stealing Korean jobs and were subsequently deported.
Huang Youfu {'traitor'}, an ethnic Korean professor at the Minzu University of China noted that articles written by joseonjok about the discrimination in South Korea was a major source of anti-South Korean sentiment in China amongst netizens.
I would say, this is a process actively encouraged by PRC. In fact, one would have to think, that PRC choose a few amongst the Chaoxianzu
{Resident Non-Indian types} and send them as their soldiers to disfigure Korea's image amongst the Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok. It is interesting that it is not the Han Chinese that are being used in this anti-Korean campaign but the turncoat Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok.
There has been an upsurge in
expressions of anti-Korean feelings amongst the Chinese. I think this is also stage-managed and very effective.
So there seems to be an active campaign in China to turn the Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok against Koreans.
NOTE for South Koreans: You need to mend fences with Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok. You could give all Joseonjok the right to have education in South Korea on a subsidized basis and then go back home to PRC.
North Korea
North Korea acts as chains around the feet of South Korea, in pretty much the same way Pakistan acts against India. In North Korea it is the dynastic autocratic Communism that is used to keep the two apart, and in Pakistan it is Pakistaniyat. Just like there are Mumbai 26/11s to thwart any rapprochement between Pakistan and India (I wouldn't wonder if there was not some Chinese complicity in this), there are North Korean torpedoes sinking South Korean ships for less Sunshine in South Korean policy. It seems to me, that Chinese play their games with several thick layers of plausible deniability.
Anyway as long as the two Koreas are wide apart, and not united, Korea will not be able to lay claims on Korean lands within PRC. It is as simple as that.
Now unlike a weak and sparsely populated Mongolia, which could enforce its claims on Inner Mongolia in PRC; or a fractured Turkic Central Asia, which cannot lay claims on East Turkestan; or a Tibetan people, who live like refugees in Exile, with only a sliver of Tibet in form of Tawang still free of Chinese control, which could not hope to get Tibet back; Korean areas in PRC could very well be claimed by a very developed Korea, and there could be a strong pull. That would start the unraveling of China.
One notices, that there is a tendency to overlook the forest for the trees. North Korea plays such good theater on the world stage, that one would overlook that it is a great smoke and mirrors game being played by the Chinese on the rest of the world.
So we have now a Chinese campaign which states that the best defense lies in offense, and it is based on at least four legs:
- Don't let North Korea collapse, and thwart unification with South Korea
- Increase the level of disenchantment between ethnic Koreans in China and their South Korean brothers.
- Increase South Korean investments in China to a level that even a united Korea, not to speak of South Korea, does not feel emboldened to rock the boat.
- Keep South Korea under the American umbrella, so that North Korea has an alibi for not pursuing unification. Another aspect of that is that with American nuclear umbrella, South Korea did not go nuclear even after North Korea conducted their nuclear tests. The American umbrella keeps South Korea weak and dependent.
With respect to China, India needs to develop a strategy which weakens it by thwarting its game plan. That means India should support that all outlying nationalities, that still retain their independent identity, like the Turks, the Mongols, the Tibetans, the Koreans should become stronger and prosperous. Furthermore the sinister propaganda games that China plays ought to come to a naught. The ethnicities imprisoned within China need to retain both their separate identity and the sentiment of unity with their compatriots across the borders. There must also be a steady stream of information from within PRC about mishandling of minorities, and about the courageous resistance of the minorities. For the ethnic minorities within PRC, one needs to find means and ways of supporting them.
As far as Korea is concerned, India should support Korean Unification. South Korea is doing all it can, just like India at the moment is doing with Pakistan, to decrease the tensions between the two countries. However North Korea is a very tough nut to crack. India can use the instances of interdiction of the North Korean vessels sailing in the Indian Ocean to start a dialog with the North Koreans. Furthermore we can also start a dialog with North Koreans on the issue of their exporting missile technology to Pakistanis. We have got a reason to talk to them so let's start talking, and seeing if we can induce a change in their behavior and their understanding of the means to secure their national interests.
Often the issue with militarized regimes is not that they are paranoid, which is also a issue, but rather that they have an interest in status quo, as they feel their maximum benefit is derived from status quo. Perhaps the current players in East Asian scene - Japan, USA, South Korea, even Australia have all got an ossified image in North Korea, and it is difficult for North Koreans to change their pattern of thinking with respect to these political players. India could be a new player, and we could bring a completely new behavior and dynamics to our relationships there. The North Korean regime has to be shown that there can be more benefit in change than in status quo.
Perhaps Indians can invest in North Korea and put up some factories there, producing stuff for export to other markets in East Asia and beyond. May be North Korean regime would be willing to let Indians in, where it is suspicious of investments coming from elsewhere.
These are just some random ideas.
Of course we cannot isolate individual countries and name the price. FWIW IMHO.
