Managing Chinese Threat

[RajeshA]

For the immediate future I think we have to figure out what the heck China thinks it is going to achieve with its whore Pakistan. An aligning with Indian interests would be far more productive with China. if India has no objection to Chinese trade routes - even the US can't do too much. But if India objects - it can cause China serious takleef.

I think China really thinks that KKH is a panacea for its problems in the West - in Sinkiang and Tibet. So from economic and demographic PoV, one could consider the following.

If it wants to get more Chinese to migrate to Urumqi and Lhasa, it needs economic activity there. The KKH would provide trade with Pakistan and Iran and further West as well to the Indian Ocean. Similarly POK could provide transit for energy (natural gas) into Sinkiang and Tibet, giving the industry there a bigger impetus. Of course all of it is to get Han Chinese to settle in bigger numbers in the West, and making Tibetans and Uighurs a small minority.

China is however very wary of building up industry in Tibet, etc. on the basis of border trade with India, because that would mean more dependence on India and more intertwining of Tibetans and Indians. So its preference for Pakistan.

[RajeshA]

U.S. Seeks Boost in Asia Presence by Kathy Chen: Wall Street Journal

China reacted angrily when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested at a meeting in Hanoi last month that countries should work through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, to resolve territorial disputes in the South China Sea, including those with China. Beijing was particularly irked by her offer to have Washington "facilitate" such initiatives.

"Superpowers often adopted the strategy of 'divide and rule,' " China's state-run Xinhua news agency said recently, in a rhetorical shot across the U.S. State Department's bow. "They stirred up tensions, disputes and even conflicts, then set foot in to pose as a 'mediator' or a 'judge' in a bid to maximize their own interests."

PRC playing victim of superpower games!

[RajeshA]

X-Posting old post from US & PRC relationship and India Thread

I totally agree with this. The Chinese are more rational than you give them credit for. If it's more profitable to engage with India, they will do it. But at this stage it's more profitable for the Chinese to suppress India.

One key to Asian stability is the destruction of Pakistan. Once Pakistan falls, China would lose both its capability of boxing in India in South Asia in a constant struggle with Pakistan, as well as its ability to deny India's strategic value to both itself as well as to other powers like USA.

Only with a destroyed Pakistan, would India's true strategic value be acknowledged by the other powers. Peace with Pakistan does not give India sufficient boost in the balance of power equations.

China will bid for an entente with India, when it feels threated that their interests in South Asia and Indian Ocean Region are at risk without such an entente.

[krisna]

+1,
In every possibility it is TSP destruction which makes India freer to flex its muscle peacefully.
Hence the TSP dissolution should be number one priority (which will be opposed by 3.5 friends particularly the top 2 ones). Having TSP around however weak makes India cast a wary eye on it because of its unpredictabe nature. The only predictable and constant nature of TSP is its hatredness to everything Indian.
Growth in economy with time will make TSP irrelevant in the scheme of things (along with it gives the extra muscle to the defence forces-- like R&D and new weapons etc).
Strong military is required to deter aggressors but it is the economy which maintains the military.

remembering china, it will come for peace when we become stronger because of its national interest. Currently India is inferior to it in its calculations hence the bravado.
quoting from KS article (page 1 of this thread from one of my post)

We should learn from China. In 1971 China was a nuclear weapon power with thermo-nuclear weapons and missiles. Yet, when it faced the Soviet Union after the Ussuri clashes, it felt the need for allies, overt or covert. Though it had fought the US in the Korean war and lost 150,000 lives, including that of Mao Zedong’s pilot son, it entered into an entente with the US against the Soviet Union.
China made available to the US monitoring stations in Xinjiang against Soviet missile tests and subsequently developed close economic relations with the US, which made China the economic and military power it is today. China’s communist ideology did not come in the way of its national security interests. It was to demonstrate to China the credibility of the US as a covert ally that Kissinger ordered the USS Enterprise mission into the Bay of Bengal during the last days of the Bangladesh war.
The Chinese are masters of statecraft and strategy. In the wake of Chiang Kai-shek’s defeat, when they faced a hostile United States, they allied themselves with the Soviet Union, and when they had problems with the USSR, they switched to a covert alliance with the US. Once the Soviet Union was dissolved and was no longer a threat, China became Russia’s largest arms market. National security interests and not ideology become the primary determinant of national strategy.

The above quote shows it flirts from one power to the power till it becomes stronger without losing sight of its national interests.

[RamaT]

+1,
In every possibility it is TSP destruction which makes India freer to flex its muscle peacefully.
Hence the TSP dissolution should be number one priority (which will be opposed by 3.5 friends particularly the top 2 ones). Having TSP around however weak makes India cast a wary eye on it because of its unpredictabe nature. The only predictable and constant nature of TSP is its hatredness to everything Indian.
Growth in economy with time will make TSP irrelevant in the scheme of things (along with it gives the extra muscle to the defence forces-- like R&D and new weapons etc).
Strong military is required to deter aggressors but it is the economy which maintains the military.

BR has this attitude that the dissolution of TSP is self-evident however there are major forces keeping it together.. US since 2000 and a lesser degree China but that role is going to flip in the next 3-5 years. Afghanistan is going to be wound down to some degree and US will work on containment but not much more. What is going to change as shown with the current control of Gilgit-Baltistan China is building a foundation for a deep economic relationship.. highways, ports, pipelines will all give China a major reason to be on our northern frontier in ever larger numbers. And once oil/gas start flowing the 'military cooperation' will reach stratospheric levels.. all the while pumping cash into Paki coffers. Northern Areas must be re-acquired before this turns into a gordian knot of interests stretching from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.

This must be stopped, it will cost blood.. but the alternatives are greater pain in the future. An early spring campaign would be best.. after Obama's visit before the thaw sets in so that we can use the weather to our advantage. The strings have to be cut, there can be no common border between the two. Let them run pipes through Tajiki territory if they must.

[Gus]

its not just JK and AP, now it is the entire NE..

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1100910/j ... 919667.jsp

New Delhi, Sept. 9: India is not in any rush to send a team to China as part of a cultural exchange programme after Beijing said delegates from the Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir should not be included, government sources revealed.

An Indian delegation of professionals from various fields was to visit China later this year as part of an annual exchange programme.

A Chinese delegation had visited India last year on New Delhi’s invitation. However, even as the dates were being finalised, the Chinese government sent an email requesting India not to include delegates from the Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir. A flurry of e-mails later, the Chinese continued to stand their ground.

[krisna]

agni missiles on china border

Official sources said India was making preparations to deploy its strategic Agni II intermediate-range ballistic missiles and Prithvi III surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to the Chinese border

An unspecified number of missile units under the Strategic Forces Command, which controls India’s nuclear arsenal, had recently been placed under the army’s Eastern Command, which has responsibility for managing the Chinese threat.
These measures were planned in response to China moving its advanced, longer-range CSS-5 missiles to the Tibet region and developing contingency plans to shift airborne forces there at short notice.

The Indian Air Force, for instance, plans to increase the number of Su-30MKI multi-role fighters at its base in Tezpur in Assam province, bordering Tibet.
Military sources said the Su-30MKI’s radius of operation from Tezpur could be further enhanced by 5,000km to 8,000km with air-to-air refuelling by the air force’s recently acquired tankers to enable them to strike at targets deep inside China.

Better to be alert.
continue on diplomatic front.

[krisna]

+1,
In every possibility it is TSP destruction which makes India freer to flex its muscle peacefully.
Hence the TSP dissolution should be number one priority (which will be opposed by 3.5 friends particularly the top 2 ones). Having TSP around however weak makes India cast a wary eye on it because of its unpredictabe nature. The only predictable and constant nature of TSP is its hatredness to everything Indian.
Growth in economy with time will make TSP irrelevant in the scheme of things (along with it gives the extra muscle to the defence forces-- like R&D and new weapons etc).
Strong military is required to deter aggressors but it is the economy which maintains the military.

BR has this attitude that the dissolution of TSP is self-evident however there are major forces keeping it together.. US since 2000 and a lesser degree China but that role is going to flip in the next 3-5 years. Afghanistan is going to be wound down to some degree and US will work on containment but not much more. What is going to change as shown with the current control of Gilgit-Baltistan China is building a foundation for a deep economic relationship.. highways, ports, pipelines will all give China a major reason to be on our northern frontier in ever larger numbers. And once oil/gas start flowing the 'military cooperation' will reach stratospheric levels.. all the while pumping cash into Paki coffers. Northern Areas must be re-acquired before this turns into a gordian knot of interests stretching from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.

This must be stopped, it will cost blood.. but the alternatives are greater pain in the future. An early spring campaign would be best.. after Obama's visit before the thaw sets in so that we can use the weather to our advantage. The strings have to be cut, there can be no common border between the two. Let them run pipes through Tajiki territory if they must.

It is easy to declare war but difficult to stop it and prevent bloodshed. On top of it TSP has new clear weapons. It is at significant disadvantage conventionally - likely to go for the new clear bum. It is irrational in behaviour.
China can put oil pipes etc but they will be at mercy of Indian forces. India can counteract through other means.
India is improving relations with Taiwan. It has Tibet card. It is also making other moves in east and central asia.It takes time to play a game. Diplomacy is in other words war without war. Successful diplomacy can achieve better results than war.

[TonyMontana]

This must be stopped, it will cost blood.. but the alternatives are greater pain in the future. An early spring campaign would be best.. after Obama's visit before the thaw sets in so that we can use the weather to our advantage. The strings have to be cut, there can be no common border between the two. Let them run pipes through Tajiki territory if they must.

Of cause the GoI wouldn't do this. Maybe the management of the Chinese threat must first start at home. India is capable of managing the Chinese threat, but is for some reason unwilling. Maybe any discussion of counter-chinese strategy should be first discussed in terms of how to create a government environment in India that could actually implement these policies. Without the ability or willingness to implement, any strategy that BRF comes up are moot.

[brihaspati]

China is now more openly aggressive and indirectly carrying out its declared intention of splitting India up. This implies that it has had negotiations with the USA for deals to expand its own role towards the subcontinent in return for concessions to the USA in other areas. China increased its posturing after the Mao-Nixon representative's secret meeting.

Sometime ago, the 2012 Chinese war plans were written about by a defence analyst and was sceptically denounced by many. However, the Communists are as decpetive as Islamists. Their combination in Pak and Chinese posturings in Tibet is not necessarily a very innocent coincidence.

If USA has secretly agreed, then China may actually use such agreements to extend its territorial claims. Chinese activity within Pak never draws any critical comments from any of the strategy gurus in US admin. The silence about Chinese dances in Pak appears deafening.

Let me pose an ultimate threat scenario :

PLA units already present in POK, now instigate "further disturbances" in the Valley, and PLA units and "EJ fronts"+Maoists instigate "further disturbances" in the NE. Simultaneously Jihadis in the Gangetic Valley and Maoists of the "corridor" are activated. Both the East and North are encouraged to declare "independence" or plans to declare independence. Next Indian government repression is claimed and irregulars are sent in and excuses to formally send in forces are created as a claimed "humanitarian and proetction of ethnic minorities" move.

If USA dithers in such a scenario - then the secret negotiations will be indirectly proved.

I concede that this is extreme. Convince me that this is impossible as a scenario.

[Bade]

Combine the above with the scenario of a staggering and consistent under performance of the US economy at < 2 % growth for the next 5 to 10 years, a not so commanding rate for the PRC economy having cooled from the halcyon days of 10+ % growth but still at a healthy clip, whereas a consistent pattern from India of hovering around 10% or more for a few years in a row. This should provide for ample motive for PRC and USA to entertain a prolonged limited war-like environment to suit each of their needs.

A shrinking economy in USA while the Indian economy is chugging at a fast pace, means a lost opportunity to profit for the US from the Indian growth. For PRC it is a direct competition from India which needs to be controlled. All the signs indicate a very high possibility of military events in the Indian subcontinent.

As for India, it is in a hard situation having not grown as much with the rest of the world in the past, when things were more "stable" economically. Single minded planning for economic growth alone now by India while ignoring military/strategic preparedness, when others are languishing economically, in their own perspective is a dangerous course. We should be planning to face a continued low intensity conflict with PRC and its bogeys for the next decade. India's place in the world in the near term of 50-100 years will be decided largely by what happens by the end of this decade and its response in the interim years.

The only way to manage the Chinese threat is to start allocating adequate resources targeted at border areas infrastructure at a war footing and collaborating with willing partners like USA, South Korea for developing the machinery for war. I am sure the others will see a possibility for profit and will engage them during this downturn. This is the price to be paid for inaction in the past 50 years by the current generation of Indians.

[Thomas Kolarek]

Any one thought about this ? 2011 U.S. Presidential Elections, Republicans will be back to helm for sure with Mr. Obama's current Economic policies. No doubt Mr. Obama is an one time president. India will be back to China game once Republicans are back to power. How could India prepare for it ? Like it or not relationship with World's Superpower does matter in geo politics.

[shiv]

Any one thought about this ? 2011 U.S. Presidential Elections, Republicans will be back to helm for sure with Mr. Obama's current Economic policies. No doubt Mr. Obama is an one time president. India will be back to China game once Republicans are back to power. How could India prepare for it ? Like it or not relationship with World's Superpower does matter in geo politics.

With respect - sitting in India this question seems utterly meaningless. It is an American omphalocentric viewpoint that gives the impression that a 4 year change of government in the US will make a difference to 1.1 billion Indians. The coverage of US elections that is played out in the world media every 4 years is incredibly tedious and boring to a non US resident and the idea that those elections have a big impact and ripples all over the world - particularly India is totally without basis. Only Americans believe that their elections have such a big impact on the world. The main impact is boredom.

[abhishek_sharma]

^ +1

[ramana]

+1.
India has been self tied trying to be nice. When it comes to own interests out goes everything.
Its irrelevant to Indian security what US thinks for they have been a hand maiden to PRC in its proliferation. Green cards are nice but with the re-emergent xenophobia its not useful.

[ramana]

Bji, I think the PRC troops are to prevent fall of Rawalpindi to an Indian strike corps.

[Klaus]

PLA units already present in POK, now instigate "further disturbances" in the Valley, and PLA units and "EJ fronts"+Maoists instigate "further disturbances" in the NE.

This would be Stage 0 of the escalation. GOI has/would've already moved forces into the NE and the Valley.

Simultaneously Jihadis in the Gangetic Valley and Maoists of the "corridor" are activated. Both the East and North are encouraged to declare "independence" or plans to declare independence.

Bji, please feel free to chastisise me. Maybe I am being a bit too optimistic today but I do not see the Maoists existing as a potent mainstream threat in the 2012 timeframe. Stage 1 and national emergency would be imposed at this stage.

Next Indian government repression is claimed and irregulars are sent in and excuses to formally send in forces are created as a claimed "humanitarian and proetction of ethnic minorities" move.

If USA dithers in such a scenario - then the secret negotiations will be indirectly proved.

I concede that this is extreme. Convince me that this is impossible as a scenario.

The GOI is not that numb that it will sit by and watch an invasion of the Indic core take place. Somehow, I do not see the GOI putting "humanitarian and protection of ethnic minorities" above the continued existence of the core Indic regions. There is nothing in history to prove that this will take place and it would surely be unprecedented if it comes to that. The imposition of national emergency would very much cancel out any subsequent Stage 2 plans.

[ramana]

Read this online or try to download

US assessment of PLA forces:

http://www.calameo.com/books/000009779556fe2db44ab

or use this page:

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.ar ... fic/china/

[abhischekcc]

[quote="Klaus]
The GOI is not that numb that it will sit by and watch an invasion of the Indic core take place. Somehow, I do not see the GOI putting "humanitarian and protection of ethnic minorities" above the continued existence of the core Indic regions. There is nothing in history to prove that this will take place and it would surely be unprecedented if it comes to that. The imposition of national emergency would very much cancel out any subsequent Stage 2 plans.[/quote]

GOI is not dumb - yes. But it will not protect Indic core because it is identified with Hinduism. Congress led GOI will protect foriegn minority interest at the cost of Hindus.

The west will 'protect' India only if it is Christian.

[csharma]

China indulging in muscular diplomacy with India'

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/china ... a/679890/0

"The source of the tensions is multi-faceted but driven in large part by China's concern with an emergent India and Beijing's desire to consolidate its position on Tibet," they said.

"Any Chinese backtracking from this neutral position on Kashmir would likely be met with subtle moves by India that increasingly question Chinese sovereignty over Tibet," they said.

"Given the substantial Indian naval capabilities, US naval forces should increase their interaction with their Indian counterparts, both to improve Indian naval capabilities and to signal Beijing that its moves will be matched jointly by New Delhi and Washington," they said.

Following is the original article

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Report ... ader-Trend

China’s Indian Provocations Part of Broader Trend

[AdityaM]

[quote="brihaspati"]
PLA units already present in POK, now instigate "further disturbances" in the Valley, and PLA units and "EJ fronts"+Maoists instigate "further disturbances" in the NE. Simultaneously Jihadis in the Gangetic Valley and Maoists of the "corridor" are activated. Both the East and North are encouraged to declare "independence" or plans to declare independence. Next Indian government repression is claimed and irregulars are sent in and excuses to formally send in forces are created as a claimed "humanitarian and proetction of ethnic minorities" move.
[/quote]
One thing that i consistenlty see missing from all such scenarios is the "engineered" natural disaster that will be unleashed on india.
We saw what happened in River Kosi. All it needed was breach in nepal. how much time will it take a few thousand nepali maosist to get activated? Similarily there was a landslide lake that threatened Himachal/Utranchal a few years ago.
Similarly "engineered" natural disasters will keep the indian supply lines through the plains cut off and make it impossible for india to make war

[Klaus]

GOI is not dumb - yes. But it will not protect Indic core because it is identified with Hinduism. Congress led GOI will protect foriegn minority interest at the cost of Hindus.

The west will 'protect' India only if it is Christian.

Any move by secessionists/Maoists/GV jihadists to declare independence or encouragement (covert or overt) by foreign powers to declare independence would result in a national emergency. Public pressure would be too huge by this point for any GOI to continue protecting minority interests, particularly when you would see stone throwing and curfews across towns. President's rule would obviously ensue and the West be damned.

[AKalam]

I am glad to see that BRF is finally waking up to the true nature of the PRC/CPC threat. PRC strategy has been to clip India's wings before it can grow them fully and learn to fly. India should attack PRC/CPC strategy with its own counter strategy. Now I must go into this with the disclaimer that I do not believe that Indian people and Chinese people are enemies, but in the medium term the threat is real for India because of short-sighted and unwise CPC leadership, which understands only the language of money, force and power.

As I have been stressing from the start in my recent posts in this forum, India must strengthen its relationship with all powers, small, medium and large, that are threatened by China's rise. This of course includes:

USA/EU
Japan
S Korea
Vietnam

Taiwan is hopeless cause, as I always believe that blood is thicker than water.

To create a cordial relationship with Chinese people (mango janta), there is a need for an army of Indians fluent in written and spoken Chinese that need to engage the Chinese people in Chinese language forums to carry the Indian POV, so the Chinese people have some level of understanding of Indian concerns beyond the CPC state propaganda. In other words, there has to information warfare armed with truth to counter misinformation and propaganda.

There is also a need, IMHO, to consider with some introspection, that if Indic Muslims (majority of whom are SDRE, aside from the elite TFTA few) who are majority in Pak-jab and Sindh and the rest of sub-continent can be considered a strategic ally (despite all the historical baggage) for the sake of future. This 500 million Indic SDRE muslims also happen to be 30% of the Muslim population of the world, who if prosperous can make Islam a more Indic SDRE controlled religion and possibly move it away from Arab centrism. Of course Indic Muslims must prove beyond the shadow of any doubt that they will be a loyal partner with their fellow Indic followers of SD and not try to proselytize them any more, since their rise and fall depends on the rise and fall of their fellow Indic population. If it is possible for both sides to come to an understanding then there are many potential benefits:

- influence in the markets of OIC countries and ensuring energy supply
- influence in Central Asia who also face a Chinese threat and use Russian protection
- influence in North and Central Africa which are mineral rich

Is it possible to engage these Indic Muslims using Indic people who speak the same language and win them over to the Indian and Indic side from the "Arab camp"?

As a Bangladeshi, personally I want to see a strong India and rise of Indic people as a pragmatic and prosperous well respected people on the face of this planet. If we can bring Pak-jabi's back to this line of thinking, then Pashtuns and Balochi's are easier nuts to crack I believe.

Bad CPC leadership in PRC creates a strategic opportunity for India. Also India must recognize all the tools it has in its hand and utilize them at their fullest to achieve success IMHO.

Hopefully it is not an invitation for flame, but one can always dream and that is my dream.

[Philip]

The latest "F" mag has an rticle on how we can fight the Chinese and save Tawang,if they invade.While it has always been a looming threat that China might try and sever the N-Eastern states from the rest of India,one must realise that that will bring China few real military and strategic gains,barring denying India its oil supplies from Assam.

The real aim of China is a global one,to dominate the energy rsources of the world,where China has first "sip" of the oil.The largest petro rich region in the world is the Gulf region.China has been relentlessly building up its infrastructure in Tibet ,so that Chinese troops and material can easily move from the heart of "Mainland China" to the west,to Tibet and then through POK/Aksai Chin into Pak finishing at Gwadar.From here China can either take the road route to Iran,or enter the Gulf by sea.IN a crisis in the future,Iran might call upon Chinese help just as the NoKos did during the Korean War.Pak might also want PRC troops to assist it during a crisis.That is why the sudden "discovery" that Chinese troops in large number are sceretly at work in POK.Tawang is the "red herring",which though critically important to India and the Tibetan diaspora,is the direction that China wants us to move towards,while taking our eyes off the mischief being done in POK/Aksai Chin wiht the connivance of Pak.The beauty of this is that China can operate almost at will in POK,thanks to Pak,and unless India threatens military strikes there,as we claim POK to be ours,right from 1947/48,it being part of the undivided state of J&K ,where China has no claim whatsoever.Any presence of Chinese troops in POK must be countered by India in th strongest measure,both diplomatically and militarily.

However,countering the relentles march of the Dragon,requires immediate and sustained focus by India in enlarging the armed forces,especially numbers of mountain divisions in the Himalayas and a enlarged IAF to deal with the threat from the Tbet region.The "F" mag in another article compares the relative airpower strength of China (what it can oppose us from Tibet) and India.With only 30 effective combat sqds. in hand,we at the moment are sorely stretched especially if pak also comes into military play,which from their track record they will do with evil glee,well knowung that the next time round it will be Sino-Pak forces against a lone India,which no longer has the Indo-Soviet treaty to insure it from Chinese attack.

Sadly,Dr.Singh's disastrous foreign policy,putting all his "marbles" into American hands,especially at a time when America in effect is in total rerteat,both from Iraq an later on Afghanistan,is endangering the nation with increasing anxiety each day as more and more details of Chinese chicanery become visible.

[Nihat]

China needs to be somewhat afraid of India to respect it. States like Taiwan , Japan, Vietnam , Korea and Autralia either don't have the economic power or the military muscle to keep china wary , hence the bulllying of the region continues unabated.

Even India dosen't have the military clout to get china to respect our sovereignity in every way. Our operation BM's still can't hit major chinese cities, we need Agni-V as a true deterrant, nuke subs, LRCM. Basically everything to tell china that we can be as offensive in nature as they come. Adopting a purely defensive stance will not work.

[Venkarl]

X posting from PRC thread as per krisna's suggestion

03 January, 2002 Taiwan, India Develop Military Ties


15 February, 2006 For Taiwan, India's in the slightly-less-hard basket

11 August , 2005 Taiwan and India

14 May, 2009 Taiwan and India: Unlikely Friends

18 June, 2010 New costs bring India and Taiwan closer

27 June, 2010 Frightened by a dragon, India shies away from Taiwan

27 June, 2010 India’s Taiwan Snub

20 August, 2010 View of China military threat needs perspective

30 August, 2010 Deputy economic minister to visit India to push trade

2 September, 2010 Taiwan, India to co-develop 4G broadband wireless tech

3 September, 2010 Taiwanese companies to seek opportunities in India

8 September, 2010 More synergy between India, Taiwan needed: Taiwan Minister

[darshhan]

China needs to be somewhat afraid of India to respect it. States like Taiwan , Japan, Vietnam , Korea and Autralia either don't have the economic power or the military muscle to keep china wary , hence the bulllying of the region continues unabated.

Even India dosen't have the military clout to get china to respect our sovereignity in every way. Our operation BM's still can't hit major chinese cities, we need Agni-V as a true deterrant, nuke subs, LRCM. Basically everything to tell china that we can be as offensive in nature as they come. Adopting a purely defensive stance will not work.

^^I was checking the figures on net and as far as Japan and South Korea are concerned both of them have enough economic and military power to counter China.Japan is the 3rd largest economy of the world.China passed it this year only.South Korea's economy is almost equal to India's($1.4 trillion).Keep it in mind that it is a much smaller nation than India.Both of them have extensive industrial and manufacturing capabilities.

Coming to defense capabilities , just because they are allies of USA doesn't mean that they have been neglecting their military capabilities.To give you an example Japan alone has about 18 submarines and above 100 maritime surveillance aircrafts.For comparison India has about a dozen subs and even after inducting P-8's it will have about only 20 dedicated maritime surveillance aircrafts.The state of readiness also seems to be better for both japanese and Korean military.

for more info on their militaries

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_o ... med_Forces
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Self-Defense_Forces

As of now India is in the most perilious position as far as China's neighbours are concerned.We are the only ones who have a festering border dispute with them.Our politico-bureaucratic leadership is craven and lacks any kind of strategic vision to deal with the challenges that lie ahead.So in my opinion both South Korea and Japan are better positioned to handle the China threat than we are.

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion Thread

RajeshA, Do you think
- in a failing TSP, US will like India to have POK?
- Or would they prefer the PRC?
- Or has PRC moved in due to 2008 meltdown?
- Or has TSP invited PRC to come in as it cant handle the stress?

Some initial thoughts
o Or has TSP invited PRC to come in as it cant handle the stress?

There are two sides to it.
The Pakistani Side
Pakistani Army is under stress from many sides.

• It keeps a strong presence on the border with India
• It continues with, at least for the time being, with the horse and pony show, with their deployment along the Durand Line in 'support' of the American troops there.
• It aids the Afghan Taliban in unofficial capacity
• It looks after its Kashmir Jihad project
• It fights the Pakistani Taliban within Pakistan
• It keeps the Punjab Taliban under control, and an eye on Al Qaeda influence
• It keeps an eye on the Baluchistan front
• It manages its various business and property investments within Pakistan
• It protects its own cantonments and air force bases within Pakistan
• Right now it is also to some extent busy with the effects of the floods in Pakistan

On top of it comes the challenge of keeping a vast swath of territory - the Northern Areas safe from both a stronger enemy India and the Azadi urges of the Balawaristanis themselves. The Pakistani Army can use some more friendly boots on the ground.

The question is what does Northern Areas mean for Pakistanis?

1. The importance of Northern Areas lies in the geographic connection Pakistan gets to China - a supplier of arms, cheap goods, nuclear materials, and possibly military support when the going gets tough. It is not just the KKH but also the air corridor that is important. It provides a huge mental crutch to the Pakistani Army that it is not on its own pitted against a larger and stronger neighbor India.
2. Other than that Indus flows through the Northern Areas, which is sort of the life-line of Pakistan. The Northern Areas can be used to build dams and water storage facilities. Some of the biggest fresh water sources are in Northern Areas - the Glaciers (Baltoro, Biafo, Batura).
3. Mineral wealth
4. Then there is the political-military importance of Northern Areas, which includes denying India access to Central Asia, thereby boxing in India into South Asia.

So at the moment Pakistan does see a distinct strategic value to Northern Areas.

The Chinese Side
It suffices here to point out to Philip's to-the-point summarization:

The latest "F" mag has an rticle on how we can fight the Chinese and save Tawang,if they invade.While it has always been a looming threat that China might try and sever the N-Eastern states from the rest of India,one must realise that that will bring China few real military and strategic gains,barring denying India its oil supplies from Assam.

The real aim of China is a global one,to dominate the energy rsources of the world,where China has first "sip" of the oil.The largest petro rich region in the world is the Gulf region.China has been relentlessly building up its infrastructure in Tibet ,so that Chinese troops and material can easily move from the heart of "Mainland China" to the west,to Tibet and then through POK/Aksai Chin into Pak finishing at Gwadar.From here China can either take the road route to Iran,or enter the Gulf by sea.IN a crisis in the future,Iran might call upon Chinese help just as the NoKos did during the Korean War.Pak might also want PRC troops to assist it during a crisis.That is why the sudden "discovery" that Chinese troops in large number are sceretly at work in POK.Tawang is the "red herring",which though critically important to India and the Tibetan diaspora,is the direction that China wants us to move towards,while taking our eyes off the mischief being done in POK/Aksai Chin wiht the connivance of Pak.The beauty of this is that China can operate almost at will in POK,thanks to Pak,and unless India threatens military strikes there,as we claim POK to be ours,right from 1947/48,it being part of the undivided state of J&K ,where China has no claim whatsoever.Any presence of Chinese troops in POK must be countered by India in th strongest measure,both diplomatically and militarily.

However,countering the relentles march of the Dragon,requires immediate and sustained focus by India in enlarging the armed forces,especially numbers of mountain divisions in the Himalayas and a enlarged IAF to deal with the threat from the Tbet region.The "F" mag in another article compares the relative airpower strength of China (what it can oppose us from Tibet) and India.With only 30 effective combat sqds. in hand,we at the moment are sorely stretched especially if pak also comes into military play,which from their track record they will do with evil glee,well knowung that the next time round it will be Sino-Pak forces against a lone India,which no longer has the Indo-Soviet treaty to insure it from Chinese attack.

Sadly,Dr.Singh's disastrous foreign policy,putting all his "marbles" into American hands,especially at a time when America in effect is in total rerteat,both from Iraq an later on Afghanistan,is endangering the nation with increasing anxiety each day as more and more details of Chinese chicanery become visible.

To add to that:

• As a Pacific Ocean Power, China will always be challenged by USA and its friends, and the possibility that it can beat USA in 'soft-power' any time are slim. Japan, South Korea, South-East Asia would retain their tilt towards USA.
• In Central Asia, it has to contend with Russia, which sees the area as its 'Near-Abroad'. Secondly that way also takes it through the Afghan badlands of Islamic Jihadism of Pushtuns.
• What China wants to do is to become a Persian Gulf power with a big naval presence in Gwadar and a direct supply route over KKH. This will help build-up the infrastructure in Sinkiang and Tibet, and support an increased migration of the Han Chinese towards these areas, giving China a stronger strategic depth.
• To that comes China's string of pearls - Hainan (China), Sittwe (Myanmar), Chittagong (Bangladesh), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Gwadar (Pakistan).

We are talking about a Superpower with a reach and sway with which India would find it very difficult to keep up. To put it mildly, India will not enjoy the peace that Canada enjoys.

TSP-PRC Plan
PRC Plan is to take over POK completely, and to push India out of Kashmir.

Pakistan cannot take care of POK. Its forces are overstretched, and Pakistan will enjoy Northern Areas' strategic value even if it is becomes Chinese territory.

• Connection to China check
• Fresh Water + Indus check
• Mineral wealth check: Pakistanis do not have the wherewithal to extract the minerals anyway, so they get their 30% share from the Chinese.
• Denial of Central Asian access to India check

Pakistan can inflame Kashmir situation indefinitely, and with Chinese putting pressure from the North, India could be forced to give up Kashmir, giving China an even broader route to Pakjab, and making the danger of Indian attack on KKH evaporate.

In fact China may have promised Pakistan Kashmir Valley if Pakistan gives POK to China.

POK, in fact, is crucial to China, if it wants to develop Tibet and Sinkiang and make them Han-Chinese friendly regions. Also China's string of pearls is to some extent dependent on Chinese land access to South West Asia (Gwadar).

With China almost having brought Nepal into its sphere of influence, and with a Maoist insurgency in India, one could that India becomes all the more susceptible to be cut off at Siliguri Corridor. Also the Marxist hold in West Bengal should give Indians food for thought. So not only Kashmir, but India's North-East is also susceptible.

If China gets POK, India can forget to create a duopoly in Asia, and that would have its effects across the board, from Japan, to Vietnam, to Indonesia, to Iran, and beyond.

China has already checkmated USA with buying so deeply into US Treasury bonds, that China now feels it can have its way in Asia.

Within 15 years one could see Asia ruled from Beijing, with Indians learning the lingua franca of Asia - Mandarin, a new generation of WKKs blaring on our TVs how Hu has praised India's role in bringing stability to the Deccan and on the other side of the Pacific, USA would keep on making TV shows about the good old heady days of American superpowerdom that lasted all the 35 years.

POK makes or breaks history.

[RajeshA]

China needs India for only one thing - in keeping the Islamist Eye of Sauron fixed on the Hindus, so that China can continue with its project of shaping Asia, while a strengthened Pakistan, infused with the air of Srinagar keeps the Indians pinned to the floor, and vice versa, that Indians do not let the Islamists get too strong that they pose a danger to China.

[Hari Seldon]

If the cheenis cross the border in a major incursion in some '62 repeat adventure, then all bets are indeed off.

IMO, DIlli's best bet then will be to flood papistan, go whole hog in attempting retakes of Aksai chin (and thereby cutting off the KKH) while retaining Tawang. Then of course, use the opening to test a few more thermo nooks which should already be deployed and unsheathed - all missiles pointing in all directions only.

[surinder]

RajeshA, that is absolutely correct. PRC is the latest in the string of powers to use the Islamists. It is Balance of Power move.

Very very fundamentally, what Indians need to do is to fight a very very good war. All the thousands of pages of analysis, strategy, tactic, real-politik etc. is meaningless in the end. In the end analysis Indians need to a fight war in a manner that is unmatched in execution. Once you thoroughly defeat the enemy, you deter him for a long long time. Not only the enemy you fought, but also every other enemy who had the slightest desire to hurt you pauses. You get all the glory.

If a nation does not fight well; then it is nothing but humiliation from there on. We will find that even maldives will spit on you after that. YOu can never stand in the world with honor and dignity.

I think fundamentally, that is the most basic and essential thing we need to do. This is the one irreplaceable thing.

[Arihant]

its not just JK and AP, now it is the entire NE..

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1100910/j ... 919667.jsp

New Delhi, Sept. 9: India is not in any rush to send a team to China as part of a cultural exchange programme after Beijing said delegates from the Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir should not be included, government sources revealed.

An Indian delegation of professionals from various fields was to visit China later this year as part of an annual exchange programme.

A Chinese delegation had visited India last year on New Delhi’s invitation. However, even as the dates were being finalised, the Chinese government sent an email requesting India not to include delegates from the Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir. A flurry of e-mails later, the Chinese continued to stand their ground.

Cross-posted:

The scope of China's claims over Indian territory seems to be growing larger by the day. India's response needs to be somewhat more vigorous than threatening to withdraw Bharat-Natyam viewing rights from the Chinese populace.

Distinct from China, India should not lay claim to any territory, but should make small moves towards de-recognizing Chinese rights over specific portions of Chinese territory, such as:

• Tibet
  Xinjiang(these 2 are obvious candidates, but also...)
  Yunnan (with a substantial population of ethnic Thai - an Indic people)
  Inner Mongolia (i.e., the Chinese province of that name)
  Heilongjiang
  Liaoning
  Jilin (all 3 of the above have a significant population that is Manchu, who, with a distinct language and cultural tradition as well racial differences from the Han, have had nationalist aspirations for a very long time - all 3 provinces constituted part of the Japanese-controlled Manchukuo in the decade leading up to WWII)
  Guizhou (traditional home of the Hmong people)

We need to start stapling visas for applicants from these regions, and also cease hosting official delegations with participants from these parts...

[Arihant]

03 January, 2002 Taiwan, India Develop Military Ties


15 February, 2006 For Taiwan, India's in the slightly-less-hard basket

11 August , 2005 Taiwan and India

14 May, 2009 Taiwan and India: Unlikely Friends

18 June, 2010 New costs bring India and Taiwan closer

27 June, 2010 Frightened by a dragon, India shies away from Taiwan

27 June, 2010 India’s Taiwan Snub

20 August, 2010 View of China military threat needs perspective

30 August, 2010 Deputy economic minister to visit India to push trade

2 September, 2010 Taiwan, India to co-develop 4G broadband wireless tech

3 September, 2010 Taiwanese companies to seek opportunities in India

8 September, 2010 More synergy between India, Taiwan needed: Taiwan Minister

Venkarl: Fascinating chronology - tells a story all by itself. Should one surmise from the sequence that a new wind blows re our relations with Taiwan as of September?

[Arihant]

Taiwan is hopeless cause, as I always believe that blood is thicker than water.

AKalam: I appreciate most of your analysis, but have to take issue with the above. I've been arguing on the "US - PRC" thread over the past week that the blood connections between Taiwan and China are pretty dilute. I'd posted a more detailed demoraphic analysis a long while back, which I can dredge up if there is interest.

[Venkarl]

Venkarl: Fascinating chronology - tells a story all by itself. Should one surmise from the sequence that a new wind blows re our relations with Taiwan as of September?

I would apply that to year 2010 itself rather than only September. There is steady engagement going on to strengthen the trade and cultural angle. The target is to make Indo-Taiwan trade figures hit 10 billion dollars by 2015. These articles gives an impression that Taiwan is more eager to engage India. And we want it too but not going high and nigh about it. But everything is being dealt at under and joint secretary level....and not political level....They are sure masters at it as they know the ground realities.

Added Later:
scroll down this link...to find few news articles on Indo-Taiwan relations...mostly reported in 2010 with 1 or 2 in 2009.

Tata Nano set to drive into Taiwan


On cultural aspect

06 September 2010 Taiwan film fest to start in capital


UPA-2 in 2010 is progressive for Indo-Taiwan relations than UPA-1 with CPI partners......btw Manish Chand of Thaindian will be resourceful to BRF if engaged....

[AKalam]

Taiwan is hopeless cause, as I always believe that blood is thicker than water.

AKalam: I appreciate most of your analysis, but have to take issue with the above. I've been arguing on the "US - PRC" thread over the past week that the blood connections between Taiwan and China are pretty dilute. I'd posted a more detailed demoraphic analysis a long while back, which I can dredge up if there is interest.

Arihant: Thanks for your kind words. I mentioned the above as I believe in the long term Han Chinese majority Taiwan will become one with PRC, but in the long term I also believe that India and the greater sub-continent will be in much better terms with PRC than it is now, as both population centers can work together to become the binary star as the combined center for the future global economy which will revolve around this binary star system.

So, on further analysis and thought, I agree that for short and medium term, Taiwan can become a valuable asset for the anti PRC alliance, as they have significant access within PRC as businessmen and have family relations there as well, not to mention that they share the same ethnicity, culture and language, while most of the population and a significant portion of political leadership share with the anti PRC alliance, the aversion for the CPC leadership of PRC and PLA. So Taiwan can be extremely valuable in a sustained effort to undermine CPC standing among the disadvantaged and underprivileged PRC populace that are seeing a fast rising CPC related class getting rich as a result of nepotism. Taiwan can also become a host for a larger number of young Indian university students for higher education who can become fluent in Chinese language and culture, one needs to know as much as possible about the adversary.

Taiwan has become more friendly with PRC mainly because the PRC has followed a policy of increased economic engagement and thus making Taiwan increasingly dependent on PRC, but as PRC is loosing its cheapest labor advantage, Taiwanese investment can move to other nations with cheaper labor, in ASEAN or South Asia. If an anti PRC alliance emerges, as a part of this alliance, it will make Taiwan more confident to be more assertive with PRC while moving away its investment from PRC.

The other important issues are how to convince US/EU about the threat of an intransigent CPC leadership, whose main motivation seems to be to keep their hold as the sole arbiter of power and wealth in PRC, regardless of the long term interest of the bulk of PRC population. The CPC has the mandate of heaven because it has engineered a 10% per year growth rate and the only way it can loose this mandate is if they fail to provide this continued growth as the ladder of prosperity for the bulk of PRC's poor and underprivileged to get out of poverty. This depends entirely on market access for PRC products in US/EU market and the rest of the world. So there has to be a way for the US/EU leadership and business community to consider the threat of CPC leadership in the region and the world stage as they become more assertive, and this should become a good source of motivation to explore alternate cheaper labor manufacturing centers in ASEAN or South Asia. This effort is the key to weaken the hold of CPC on PRC and PLA, as it may reduce PRC growth rates and thus make them loose the mandate of heaven. The prospect of a threatening PRC led by a relatively unstable CPC leadership, trying to become the top dawg eclipsing the current US/EU lead is not something that the West will look forward to as an welcome development.

As for an alternate Indic centric Islam, my personal observations are that the Hanafi madhab that was traditional in the subcontinent and Central Asia as well as Turkey might be a good tool to use against Wahhabi/Salafi/Ahle Hadith push by the Saudi's and the brotherhood Islamist ideas by the Egyptians as well as by JeI promoting ideas of Moududi. But then such an effort to redirect Islam away from the current corrosive influence needs funding which needs to be carefully thought out. The problems of Islamism, Extremism and Terrorism are not impossible to solve if the right approach is taken IMHO. This effort can be led by Indic Muslims (if they can be prosperous in the future) with active co-operation from moderate Muslims in Turkic Central Asia, Russian Caucasus as well as Turkey, which are the traditional home of Sunni Hanafi Muslims:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanafi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Madhhab_Map2.png

[ramana]

Taiwan has two phases: KMT and local Taiwanese. In the KMT phase they had mainland Chinese leadership dominating for over fifty years after the CPC takeover. Since over 15 years, the local Taiwanese who are ethnically different are at the forefront. I agree that during the KMT phase Taiwan policy toward India was no different than the mainland China. Its not the same now.

[Rishirishi]

The Chinease seem to have already taken it for granted that it will become the new super power, within a few decades. The Unkils are afraid of this and improving the relations with India (look at nuke deal, I was in China at that time, and all the Chinease newspars were projecting the deal as a mesure from the US to build an counterwight to China).

NOW THE REALITY CHECK.
Fact of the matter is that India has a greater chance to become some kind of Superpower, here is why.

1 The one child policy has already started to hit the economy. Their labour pool is shrinking and the burden on the ecomomy from pensioners will hit domestic demand.

2 There is a HUGE buble. There are some 64 million flats that are unsold and another 6 billion sq meter under construction. It is due to a complex way government owns the land and local governments building companies takes up loans to avoid defaults.

3
The Chinease banks have massive debts, not only to construction companies but also to state sponsored companies run by local governments. Most of them sell at below cost.

4
Indian companies are globally competative and make much better profits. A software developer with 5 years exp can make USD 2000 per month. That is the same as 15 workers in a low cost factory.

When the Chinease realise India is going to surpass china and they may even experiance some civil unreast, from a bankrupt economy. The Party will require something to shft the fokus.

USA and Japan as well as rest of Asia, will not be interested in a weakened India. This will effect the whole balance. Where as China will have one friend (TSP), India will be friends with all of Chinas Customers.

[Cosmo_R]

@Rishirishi^^^.

Yes. And to your points I would add:

1. Female foeticide given the one child policy. This is going to make it even more difficult to maintain levels of young workers to support the older ones

2. The amount of debt at the provincial level that has gone to fund infrastructure that won't be needed for decade or two is incredible. All of this is sitting as loans on the books of state banks. The laws of economics won't be repealed just for the sake of the CPC

3. The anti China backlash has already begun because Chinese investment in country XYZ has brought in Chinese workers leaving nothing for locals

4. Lula of Brazil recently averred: " We now realize what China is about..."

None of this will matter of course, if we can't get our act together to relentlessly focus on getting the 300 million poor to middle class levels. So it boils down to leadership, Leadership, Leadership.

[Klaus]

Let me give an analogy so that other members can try and arrive at conclusions.

There is a person going around by the name of Indu. She owns a piece of land on which she intends to construct an apartment. One contractor by name of Abdul Peshwari, who has dubious credentials and links with certain shady criminal fronts unexpectedly visits Indu's house at night and offers to build the apartment for her. Indu rejects it saying that she is looking at some other real estate developer.

A few days later, Abdul Peshwari sends a gang of rogues who breach the fences of Indu's property and start building the apartment. Indu runs from pillar to post, asking for help from the police and the judiciary but to no avail. The situation goes cold.....

Now, Abdul Peshwari has a lingering finance problem due to which he is unable to build beyond the first floor of the complex. Also, by now he has lost interest in construction business as his begum is suffering from an unmentionable disease where there is fluid accumulation in her lungs. He is no mood to confront Indu and face her. So he brings an acquaintance Li Han Feng and his team of surveyors to carry out inspection work on the property. Li Han Feng and his team descend on the property and carry out some superficial work while continuing to squat alongside Peshwari's motley tribe.

Note that Indu has not signed any construction contract with Abdul Peshwari. What is she to do with this group of squatters who are currently engaged in digging a big moat around the property so that Indu cannot get in without some slush on her pants?