Managing Chinese Threat

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Venkarl
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Venkarl »

ramana wrote:The odd thing is both the POK and the Myanmar route brings the PRC lifelines within Indian grasp. Yet it is being touted as a move to hedge for Pacific blocade by US and the Straits of Malacca chokehold!!!
Are they not putting their throats in our hands? In case of full blown war..India might simply choke them to coal and wood...I wouldn't talk about Delhi's will on this as it'd be a self loathing act. :mrgreen:
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by rohitvats »

ramana garu, I for one do not believe in the 'alternate energy security' route theory. For the simple reason articulated by you above. What would take the might of Indian Navy to do in IOR plus IAF assets, can be done by single regiment of Cruise Missiles and in multiple manners. Right from Gwadar to Pakistan proper to Northern Areas. Baloch have shown special capability in blowing up gas pipelines.

And unless, China moves 5-6 group armies trained and equipped for Mountain Warfare into NA and LAC and maintains eye-ball to eye-ball confrontation, 'ghanta nahi ukhar sakta koi'. If it is difficult for us to take POK, it will be difficult for the forces from other side.

And as time passes, Indian Army only grows in strength in the Northern Command Areas. Watch out for developments in Eastern Ladakh.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

Or is this putting lifelines in Indian hands a CBM from PRC?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

ramana wrote:The odd thing is both the POK and the Myanmar route brings the PRC lifelines within Indian grasp. Yet it is being touted as a move to hedge for Pacific blocade by US and the Straits of Malacca chokehold!!!
PoK would not be within India's grasp once China takes it. If the Chinese facilitate the transfer of Kashmir Valley to Pakistan, then PoK becomes all the more distant from India. Whereas Chinese military would be guarding PoK from within PoK, Indian planes would have to fly from further afield, whereas Chinese planes in Sinkiang or even Gilgit-Baltistan could react at short notice. China would not leave KKH vulnerable.

The String of Pearls strategy of Chinese envisages a much stronger presence of the Chinese in the vicinity of IOR than we think. Gwadar could have around 3-4 million Chinese living there in 15-20 years. Same is the case with Sittwe. Once they have been established as Chinese outposts, they can be upgraded into full naval bases with their own command. The Chinese are capable of contesting Indian primacy in IOR if they want.

More than anything else these corridors to China - Gwadar-KKH corridor, and Sittwe-Yunnan corridor are to give China an economic boost to increase the GDP Growth rate even further. Whenever India and China come to fisticuffs, China would have become even a larger economic and military power due to the boost given by these corridors and the accompanying redistribution of populations.

China would in fact be challenging India for supremacy in our own backyard - IOR. They can make life for us far more difficult if they choose to - which they will.

Furthermore these Chinese corridors into Indian Ocean are not the lifelines of China. The lifelines are still in the Pacific coast. But our lifelines are definitely in IOR. With Gwadar and Sittwe they can challenge all our Naval Commands.

The Chinese threat is very much real!
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Bade »

Or PRC astutely reasoned that GoI will not do harm to the energy corridor in fear of reprisals from China. Same cannot be said of western powers at least for the next few decades. It is a win win for them, as it ensures alternate routes of supply and goodwill operational ability in foreign soil in the name of protecting their economic interests.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by krisna »

Uncles scheme
The timing of the release of the article regarding china in pok, the afghanistan study group recommendation of withdrawal of us troops, sudden ongoing protests in J&K. are they related somewhat together. One of the author is common to both.

The reasons are as follows—

Uncle is withdrawing as the war on terror is sapping it mentally and physically. It also has economic problems at home to contend with angry voters.
Panda is increasing in strength.
TSP is slowly fading despite $$$$$. It is a nut case. It may not hold against India for long (nations life time).
Uncle needs some balancing to be done wrt panda. It is leaving Afghanistan and Iraq. Russia will look after central asia. Panda is boxed all over except the only weak spot -- south asia.
The one to fit the bill is India.
But India is inward looking. It does not know its own strengths.


How is uncle trying to box the increasingly belligerent panda -
1) Increasing enagements with asean/east asia nations-
2) Naval exercises to show panda who is the boss
3) Continuing Pressure on burma and No Ko. These are the only communist countries supported by panda. Panda has great fears of any coup (or colored revolutions less likely) in these 2 countries- it will be left friendless otherwise.
4) Asean and east asian countries are not friendly in any real sense of terms with panda.
Bringing in India-
So uncle creates some plants to stir up Indians and accommodate it into uncle’s overall strategic plans.
By mentioning Chinese in pok, it set alarm bells ringing in south block. They were forced to awaken from slumber . There has been a increasing activity on Indian side.
There is a flurry of activities- Indians are all over east asia and ASEAN- soko, laos, Vietnam,Cambodia, burma,japan/Nepal/BD, SL malaysia etc.
Admittedly some of them were planned by India before the above events. But the urgency was missing.
Likely the eagle thought that the elephant was too slow for its own comfort. Hence the alarm bells.

J&K issue--
Why the J&K issue is increasing now—India will never let go off it,so increasing the temp will increase Indian army presence there, just in case if panda does move the troops eventually to POK.
Already India is improving the infrastructure across entire NE and Arunachal Pradesh.
It is improving its defence preparedness overall.
Uncle would prefer India any day to panda. Reasons are it is easier to make India do what it likes relatively better compared to panda. It has numerous problems to tackle before it can even think of rivaling uncle.
The support may be just to make India prevent panda from flexing its muscles outside its geographical location.
There might be lot more direct or indirect encouragement to India by uncle vs panda. Something like keeping a smaller power to keep the bigger one in check for the next few years/decades. Ex- SU vs panda in the past.

what would panda do meanwhile-
1) belligerent towards India hoping it will muffle the elephant as it has been doing for sometime like a bully.
2) Build oil pipes and ports all over IOR for itself to continue its economic activity. Greatest fear for chinese is unequal distribution of wealth amongst its population.
3) Panda would help TSP brutally suppress any revolt in POK and baluchistan. Panda will get the roads and railways pass thru pok once uncle prepares to leave TSP. meanwhile assist the TSP to crush any revolt in baluchistan and gilgit. It may help TSP with some toys to match India.
What can TSP do to panda.
Zilch. Maybe basmati rice for chinese noodles and throw in the towel.
Panda has all the stuff TSP makes- textiles, towels, painting and copying...

JMTs.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

X-post
R.Prasanan in The Week

The Dragon"s teeth

Looks like we need a Chi-Pak thread very soon for there is convergence between the two.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by krisna »

^^^^
Prasanna's article-
In short, in case the Chinese attempt any kind of adventurism on the Arunachal-Sikkim sector, the Indian Army would have three full corps waiting for them—the Sukhna-based 33 Corps, the Tezpur-based 4 Corps and the newly-augmented Dimapur-based 3 Corps. All of them have also been given the light 155mm guns which can be heli-lifted. Advanced landing grounds have been built in Tuting, Pasighat, Vijaynagar, Along and Mechuka in Arunachal for heli-landing troops and equipment. “Take it from me,” said a general staff officer, “if they come, the Chinese will find Tawang an impregnable fortress.
India has nearly 100000 soldiers in arunachal pradesh
Apparently the Chinese know this. And so they have been shifting focus onto the western sector comprising India’s Ladakh. A few probing trespasses were made there last year, to which India responded with three measures. First, Jairam Ramesh’s road-blocking environment ministry :evil: withdrew its objections to building roads in some 760 Himachal villages. Second, the Indian Air Force augmented and activated a landing strip at Nyoma, 20km from the China border for taking troop-carrying Antonov-32 planes. Next, the IAF developed two more airstrips at Fukche and Daulat Beg Oldi.
The third move, by the cabinet, was to clear the contract for building a tunnel in Rohtang which would make it possible for the troops to move to Ladakh at any time of the year.
These moves, India expects, would make a Chinese bid on Ladakh from Aksai Chin in the east almost impossible. So the Chinese are opening another front on the west—from Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan-held northern areas.
It seems India is reacting rather than being proactive. hopefully it will change. 8)
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by D Roy »

IMHO,

we can take care of both hi-intensity/hi-tech as well as COIN issues in the Northern Command and we are taking care of it because dilli bahut he pass hai.

The eastern command is also gearing up for hi-tech and the NE is being fortified.

But what about BD. Okay AL is on the face of it playing ball, but we know that Chicom is active there.

I do not see the emerging internal security situation in eastern India as not having phoren manipulation especially chicom influenced.

Eastern India is the key to Indian strength in terms of both resources as well as manpower. But it is also India's greatest developmental challenge.

I see Chicom trying to phuck the East via both the red vector (resources) as well as Islamism (demographics) . Moreover the Banshees in Kapital may also be getting baksheesh from them.

This needs to be countered.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by D Roy »

Yeah but Bhaat gateway, hain?

We have a presence on basically both sides of the Bay of Bengal. Given Rambili and ANC I don't see how Chicom is any more secure with these investments.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

krisna wrote:Uncles scheme
The timing of the release of the article regarding china in pok, the afghanistan study group recommendation of withdrawal of us troops, sudden ongoing protests in J&K. are they related somewhat together. One of the author is common to both.
I too think that USA is playing India. The question is does India have a choice other than go along. After all India's national interests are at stake here.

True USA would draw some mileage out of the situation for itself, but would it be harmful to Indians to play along?

X-Posting something I wrote earlier in US and PRC relationship & India Thread.
RajeshA wrote:The Americans are looking for ways to get out of Afghanistan with their honor intact. They want to be able to tell the American people, that they have not lost in Afghanistan.

In fact the Americans will not be able to suffice even one mission goal for Afghanistan. So the only other way they can do that is by saying something more important came up. That can be either Iran or it can be support to India in China-occupied Kashmir or it can be both.

Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) is only West Jammu. 'Rest is China occupied'.

Iran however is not a crisis region at the moment. Should Israel or USA start something there, many in the international community would put the blame on USA for war-mongering and unprovoked aggression, or as simply an open tactic to get out of Afghanistan.

Balwaristan (Gilgit-Baltistan) however can very quickly turn into a conflict zone, through the actions of other parties, and using that as an excuse to pull out of Afghanistan would seem far more credible.

JMTs
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Gus »

ramana wrote:Or is this putting lifelines in Indian hands a CBM from PRC?
That's a little wishful, don't you think?

PRC is not looking for an entente or detente...
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Myanmar Seeks Asian Support for Its Ballot: Wall Street Journal
Analysts say Myanmar may not always be able to count on China's unqualified support, however. Although China has made major investments in oil, gas, and other resources projects in Myanmar in recent years, many analysts believe China has also at times put pressure on Myanmar behind the scenes to back economic and social reforms. China has also expressed displeasure over reports of possible instability along its border with Myanmar, which is also known as Burma. Myanmar's government has long waged low-grade wars with ethnic separatist groups in border areas, and it has vowed to intensify those efforts this year if the groups don't hand over weapons and fully support the election process.Many analysts say they believe China is counseling Gen. Than Shwe to back down from any steps that could lead to more violence around the election.

"China's No. 1 interest in Burma is stability," said Ian Storey, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. "They have all these investments there," he said, and "they're worried the way things are going in Burma, things could get risky."
Burma is heavily focussed on China. In fact China's ungali is everywhere there.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by krisna »

RajeshA wrote: I too think that USA is playing India. The question is does India have a choice other than go along. After all India's national interests are at stake here.
True USA would draw some mileage out of the situation for itself, but would it be harmful to Indians to play along?
Quoting KS article countering china
Times have changed, as has the international strategic milieu. Even while retaining Russia as a friend in the Asian context, India has to develop a new balance of power equation to deal with the challenge from China and Pakistan not merely to our external security but to our national development as a pluralistic, secular and democratic nation. India too has its ancient strategic wisdom, preached in the Panchatantra, Hitopadesa and Arthasastra, encompassing sama (cooperation), dhana (buying up), bedha (causing division) and dhanda (use of force). It is time to invoke that ancient wisdom and devise an appropriate international strategy to counter the Chinese-Pakistani challenge.
US wants to befriend India in its high power stakes game with panda. Same happened during cold war-- US vs SU with china siding with US. This occurred because china had clear goals and core interests so it know how much it could tag along with US despite communism prevailing in SU and China. pretty unusual exploited fully by uncle.
Currently china is growing too big for its boots according to US. It is competing with US everywhere. Even in TSP of all nations close to US. TSP has more close relations with panda than US. But US has sunk billions in the sh%thole.
It is battling with Europeans. US is the guarantor of most European nations.
Most europeans dont like chinese usurping their spheres of influence which is eroding slowly and irreversibly.
slowly china is chipping away at everything US stood for and guaranteed in the last century.
It is not doing nicely also trudging on the toes of everyone in the process.
Sure uncle is mightily pissed off with panda and courting India as a counterweight.

As long as India clearly articulates the core interests it can play along side USA. It must have certain goals and national aspirations. With that in the background it can play the game.

India has already started the process of sama (cooperation), dhana (buying up), bedha (causing division)- courting asean/east asia, central asia, , US also -close economic coperation, weapons etc. Nepal trying to prevent maoists coming to power.
dhanda is too early for us now. hopefully it will arrive when most needed. :wink:
These are small steps for now.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

krisna wrote:As long as India clearly articulates the core interests it can play along side USA. It must have certain goals and national aspirations. With that in the background it can play the game.
I do agree, that USA and India's interests could coincide against PRC.

It is however important that we keep our independent policy, and it is important that we also publicly demonstrate of independence of policy.

The way India has gone about doing it, is to convince that even if India and USA disagree on some immediate goals or our policies towards other countries, India shares common values with Western democracies and has vested interests in maintaining the current international system, a system put together by USA and Europe, even as India should be better included in the decision making (UNSC permanent seat). On the other hand, it is becoming ever more clear, that PRC is subverting the current system, even as it profits from it.

If the USA does come on board with India, or vice versa, it would have to make a big policy change - w.r.t. China as well as TSP.

India's immediate interest should be an integration of PoK within India, without getting too bruised up.

By raking up the issue of PoK through Selig Harrison, it seems USA would want India to mobilize and take over PoK. USA also realizes that it would be a uphill task for India, trying to ward off both TSP and PRC at the same time. So either USA simply wants India to lean more towards USA for geopolitics, which we should carefully think over; or the USA is willing to really pitch in militarily and help India get control of PoK, in which case we should show interest. Military support would probably be in terms of aerial troop and hardware transport, but most importantly by pinning down China in the Pacific through a massive naval deployment. That can be in response to some crisis created by North Korea for example.

Best case would be if both North Korea and PoK simultaneously fall to South Korea/America and India respectively.

So India should put the question very directly: What are the Americans willing to commit to the project of confining China to East Asia, how far are they willing to go to ensure a duopoly in Asia?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by krisna »

RajeshA wrote: I do agree, that USA and India's interests could coincide against PRC.
It is however important that we keep our independent policy, and it is important that we also publicly demonstrate of independence of policy.
Agree. no issues on this.
India's immediate interest should be an integration of PoK within India, without getting too bruised up.

By raking up the issue of PoK through Selig Harrison, it seems USA would want India to mobilize and take over PoK. USA also realizes that it would be a uphill task for India, trying to ward off both TSP and PRC at the same time. So either USA simply wants India to lean more towards USA for geopolitics, which we should carefully think over; or the USA is willing to really pitch in militarily and help India get control of PoK, in which case we should show interest. Military support would probably be in terms of aerial troop and hardware transport, but most importantly by pinning down China in the Pacific through a massive naval deployment. That can be in response to some crisis created by North Korea for example.

Best case would be if both North Korea and PoK simultaneously fall to South Korea/America and India respectively
.
It is too simplistic to be realistically possible. IMHO it is not childs play.
Sure uncle wants India to wake up and see dragon in its full glory.
USA wants India to take on PRC, but military option will not work because uncle will not go full extent.
China is no pushover. It can destroy both also. Not to forget the new clear power. Uncle cannot even handle tinpot powers like Iran/NoKo( compared to china onlee).
Why should it give leverage to India vs china. What will uncle gain in this. Remember china is not a superpower. It has numerous faultlines. India is one of them to box china in its place. Giving military option is not childs play nor will it be offered.
India has to work hard diplomatically over a period of time. It is too early to even think of in military terms.
US will drop hints of its encouragement all along the way and India should latch on to it. India was hardly on the radar screen of uncle. When its economy started to improve suddenly people started to notice it. So India has something to offer in the long run hence the interest.
Uncle willing to work around new clear deal, weapons economy integration, media propaganda, security council helping India thru its influence in world politics.
It will ask India to do its bidding in certain issues in return for its support. India should give if it is in sync with its stated nationalist goals. if not excuse itself diplomatically.

Meanwhile India should go about and develop close relations with as many countries as possible. It should improve its defences. It should keep its powder dry and battle ready.
Develop economy and living standards of its people. Let Indians know their core interests like saying that J&K complete is our land. Reduce DIEs and SLIMEs in our people.Others like Tibetans were driven out of their land by the brutal suppression by china etc.

Living standards, economy and military should go hand in hand. One cannot be think of it as one after another.
So India should put the question very directly: What are the Americans willing to commit to the project of confining China to East Asia, how far are they willing to go to ensure a duopoly in Asia?
USA will not give in black or white terms nor do India will say it so.
It all diplomacy in grey and dull colours which will happen over a period of time.
Both will test each other in relation to each other keeping their cards close to their chest. Remember both do not trust each other completely because of the history.It is a long one over years.

USA is the reigning superpower by a long shot. China is way far behind and India still further behind.
USA looks for least cost option of containing china and one of them is India which will do it on its own right. USA will gently prod India in certain directions to get the maximum benefit. India will also get the benefits due to it.

As long as both of them have something in common this will continue with hopes of checkmating the dragon.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Beware of China’s peace offensive by Joseph Wu: Taipei Times
Chinese officials have already increased their call for political talks since the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The first factor already seems to be having an effect.

Judging from the series of setbacks for the KMT in the legislative by-elections and its predictable defeat in the municipality elections, China is likely to ramp up its support for the KMT in the 2012 presidential election to keep the “China friendly” Ma in power.

According to some news reports, China is studying the feasibility of withdrawing some of its missiles in order to rescue Ma’s re-election campaign in exchange for a quiet agreement for political talks. Ma might get a boost and China would earn a reputation internationally for making peace.

Ma would be in a very weak position to refuse to enter China’s road map at all, if he wants to be re-elected. Of course, it would also mean the end of Taiwan’s security ties with the US.

For China, this would be the stone that killed three birds. However, the consequence for Taiwan is that it would sink politically into “one China” without any prospect of reversing the unfortunate situation. It would also change the regional strategic picture dramatically. Japan worries about this scenario — with very good reason.

This scenario might take place next summer, when the presidential election heats up and if Ma’s popular support is still low. Judging from the non-transparent approach of the KMT and the Chinese governments in handling issues, such as Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Assembly, military confidence building measures and other contacts of a political nature, this situation may materialize — and it would be a nightmare for those who worry about China’s dominance of the region.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Will China Rule the World? by Douglas H. Paal: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
China may have room yet to continue growing as the benefits of modernization spread westward within China, but its success will depend on significantly promoting domestic-led growth, which in turn will require returning the proceeds of investment to ordinary depositors, which will raise the cost of capital to enterprises who now depend on low-cost capital to be profitable. In other words, the China we see now will have to change the way it does business—with major implications for how its system works.

Now, one of these problems by itself might be a manageable challenge for foreigners, their governments, and the international system, but the three taken together pose real risks. If China’s elite begins to fight over power as the public clamors for tougher foreign policy positions, experience suggests that domestic Chinese concerns will trump foreign policy interests. Foreign considerations would receive short shrift. When absolute power is at stake, certainly in China and elsewhere, the niceties of foreign relations are quickly forgotten.

Probably more important, China’s so-far successful management of its state economy will ultimately be forced to accommodate the gravity of market economics. In appealing for supporters, the level headed bureaucrats that have substituted for market forces in China’s economic rise in recent years will be increasingly subjected to interest group politics not necessarily grounded in market economics. Distortions will necessarily occur and deny the Chinese the rate of growth to which they are now accustomed. Again, these issues will be exacerbated by discord among the rulers and ruled.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Raja Ram »

Folks,

Thanks for the responses so far. Here is a brief background to the talk. The audience is expected to be around 80 odd corporate types. Fair mix of middle age execs, not likely to be the demo bulge of 15-35 that much, although a good participation is expected from these lot

The premise is simple. The objectives are as follows:

1. To present the Chinese angle as a clear and present threat in a realistic manner - the audience should feel the extent of the threat

2. To demystify some of the popular myths about China (like what shiv has done here) and

3. To introduce them to resources that can provide accurate and adequate information rather than what is available through media and official channels (all of which do not give an accurate assessment of threats nor of China's strength/weakness)

The effect that is expected

1. To at least get 15 -20 people interested and aware enough to get into an action mode and start sharing the presentation to their circles of influence

2. Over a period of time, present to a wider and wider audience more topics of interest by experts to build an alternative channel of information delivery, a base for coordinated efforts on nationalist agendas, and build competencies to deliver and engage a wider audience to topics of national relevance and take actions.

ramana,
the China Puzzle title is the forum organizer, I am only a speaker to deliver here.

Acharya,
the email address is there in the first post. the same as posted by venkarl.

I am looking for a good set of maps on china India border and to demonstrate the string of pearls etc. anyone who has some maps, please send them over.

Will let you all know how it went once the meeting is over. Thanks for the support.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ShivaS »

KS is way past... to be listened to or even read....
see the pattern of our raja gurus (like KS et al) and Rajas of delhi.

We did PoK1 to ward off Uncle and Lizard (after Nixon went to Bejing to make PRC local goonda)
Then we slept, but PRC and US did not they bolstered TSP while putting pressure on India not develop Agni

Then suddenly after Bill Riichardsons visit and condoning Gauri tests we wake up and conduct POK II. our DM correctly identifies the real enemy for India is PRC and then we go back to sleep again. meanwhile PRC doesnt go to sleep..

Then we soothe the west saying NFU, unilateral moritorium etc. bhashan follows...
After Kargil we chant even though our neighbors are nuke powers Ther is still scope for limited conventional wars and then sleep not fortifying our conventional strength...
meanwhile PRC connects the door steps to India with Rail and roads both in NEFA and LAdakh regions all over and worse than 1962 (no buffer state now).

KS till now and recent times was advocating patching up with PRC and building trust with PRC..
Schelling's theory of surprise; he believes that surprise is often the by-product of analytical timidity. "The poverty of expectations—the failure of imagination—I found this just so interesting," Rumsfeld said. "We tend to hear what we expect to hear, whether it's bad or good. Human nature is that way. Unless something is jarring, you tend to stay on your track and get it reinforced rather than recalibrated. If I as a policymaker fail to make a conscious decision that you want to go around three hundred and sixty degrees and test things, you're likely to stay in a rut.
Image
China has also been enhancing its strike power in Tibet. The Indian Army believes that the PLA can move one full mechanised infantry division into Tibet in 48 hours in an emergency, and about 10 divisions in one month for a permanent base. More worryingly, in its largest ever tactical exercises (code-named Stride) last year, the PLA demonstrated awesome airlift capability. As per the Indian Army’s assessment, China today can airdrop an infantry brigade of 3,000-plus in one airlift and an entire infantry division of about 15,000 troops and their equipment in a single operation.

In addition, China is also learnt to have raised a rapid deployment force (called Emergency-Resolving Mobile Combat Force) which can induct four divisions on any stretch of its frontier (or enemy territory) on a day’s notice. Plus, the PLA’s logistics management has been tuned in such a way as to gain a capability to move 20 to 25 divisions over two months. Most of these capabilities were proven in Stride-2009 in which 50,000 troops were moved across 1,600km by road, rail and air from the military districts of Shenyang, Lanzhou, Jinan and Guangzhou.

Stride-2009 was essentially aimed at proving the PLA’s ability to mobilise in real time. However, what alarmed India was the simultaneous building of advance infrastructure in Tibet so that nearly 25 divisions could be moved into Tibet at short notice. China had three main airfields in Tibet—Kongka, Hoping and Pangta. However, in the months prior to Stride-2009, China built or operationalised two more around Lhasa, and four more elsewhere in Tibet, thus giving them nine airfields to land troops and support fighter operations. And about two months ago, China even exercised a few squadrons of Sukhois and J1s over Tibet. “Exercising them over Tibet has other implications,” said an IAF officer. “You cannot have a sustained exercise programme without having built massive ground support system. Thus even if China is not basing advanced fighters in Tibet as of now, they have all the ground systems in place. They can move in the aircraft in a matter of two hours now.”

More worrying has been the recent integration of their non-nuclear strategic missiles with their military area commands. India has kept its non-nuclear missile regiments (such as 333) under a separate command so that battalion or brigade commanders are not tempted to use them in the event of minor battlefield reverses. China, however, has integrated them into their area commands which signals that their use in battle is being left to the judgment of middle-level commanders.
from the current issue of The Week ( this issue could be termed as The Weak) of malayala manorama publications
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Arihant »

Cross-posted from the PRC thread:

This article appeared today in the Taipei Times - very appropriate given recent discussion on this forum.
EDITORIAL : Does Taiwan need nuclear weapons?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ShivaS »

raja ram ji is this talk in Chennai, if so when and where?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Arihant wrote:Cross-posted from the PRC thread:

This article appeared today in the Taipei Times - very appropriate given recent discussion on this forum.
EDITORIAL : Does Taiwan need nuclear weapons?
Good catch!

I think, and I have mentioned this before, Taiwan needs to have a nuclear deterrent, and Vietnam can help both India and Taiwan in testing those nukes. India and Taiwan should work together on this project. However that would probably have to wait till Ma leaves office and DPP under a new leader comes to power.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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RajeshA wrote:Beware of China’s peace offensive by Joseph Wu: Taipei Times
Chinese officials have already increased their call for political talks since the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The first factor already seems to be having an effect.

Judging from the series of setbacks for the KMT in the legislative by-elections and its predictable defeat in the municipality elections, China is likely to ramp up its support for the KMT in the 2012 presidential election to keep the “China friendly” Ma in power.

According to some news reports, China is studying the feasibility of withdrawing some of its missiles in order to rescue Ma’s re-election campaign in exchange for a quiet agreement for political talks. Ma might get a boost and China would earn a reputation internationally for making peace.

Ma would be in a very weak position to refuse to enter China’s road map at all, if he wants to be re-elected. Of course, it would also mean the end of Taiwan’s security ties with the US.

For China, this would be the stone that killed three birds. However, the consequence for Taiwan is that it would sink politically into “one China” without any prospect of reversing the unfortunate situation. It would also change the regional strategic picture dramatically. Japan worries about this scenario — with very good reason.

This scenario might take place next summer, when the presidential election heats up and if Ma’s popular support is still low. Judging from the non-transparent approach of the KMT and the Chinese governments in handling issues, such as Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Assembly, military confidence building measures and other contacts of a political nature, this situation may materialize — and it would be a nightmare for those who worry about China’s dominance of the region.
RajeshA: The next Taiwanese Presidential election is ours to lose. We could help the right side of Taiwanese politics in many significant ways. We only have to take a page out of the Chinese playbook - they are able to simultaneously maintain a position that is inimical to Taiwan but supportive of the KMT. We need to maintain a position supportive of Taiwan, but less laudatory re the KMT. We need to make our support of the DPP clear, and hold out some goodies for Taiwan should the DPP come to power (mainly diplomatic, but also commercial - as many posters have recently said, there are many commercial goodies for India to offer as well). DPPs Tsai Ing-Wen should visit India, and the visit should get some appropriately calibrated media coverage.

Simultaneously, India needs to build links with the KMT. As I've said earlier, the "status quo" camp within KMT is of interest to India, but the "we wlecome annexation by China" fanatics in the KMT need to be discredited.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Lalmohan »

KMT needs to rescind its views on tibet and arunachal first - publicly
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by anchal »

Even the JNU jholawalas are recognizing the value of countering China

http://news.rediff.com/column/2010/sep/ ... ection.htm
Possibly, India now could be rethinking on appropriate policy options on Tibet, Taiwan or even on Xinjiang.
Srikanth Kondapalli is professor in Chinese studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Lalmohan wrote:KMT needs to rescind its views on tibet and arunachal first - publicly
I think it would be far easier to revise the policy position on Arunachal, then to pronounce Tibet not a part of China. That would be a big step, as it would carry an anti-nationalist touch. KMT can also simply proclaim, that they recognize all those parts of China as China, over which they ruled, before the KMT were pushed out of China. As KMT wishes to speak for all Chinese - PRC + Taiwan, their proclamation would be looked as anti-national by the mainland Chinese, and any support they may have on the mainland could evaporate.

They may however do it, if India offers them diplomatic recognition.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Venkarl »

RajeshA wrote:
Arihant wrote:Cross-posted from the PRC thread:

This article appeared today in the Taipei Times - very appropriate given recent discussion on this forum.
EDITORIAL : Does Taiwan need nuclear weapons?
Good catch!

I think, and I have mentioned this before, Taiwan needs to have a nuclear deterrent, and Vietnam can help both India and Taiwan in testing those nukes. India and Taiwan should work together on this project. However that would probably have to wait till Ma leaves office and DPP under a new leader comes to power.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 23#p939923

Arihant saab...I have mentioned "this" editorial in last page...I thought you'd respond to that post. :|
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Altair »

ramana wrote:Or is this putting lifelines in Indian hands a CBM from PRC?
Two Possibilities:

1. China gambled that elephant is too slow to take advantage of their weakness and they would be consolidating in places which needs immediate attention.
2. China is sending a message to India, albeit a cryptic one to "Be smart and join China and jointly we can screw US and Pakistan in Af-Pak region till they disintegrate".

This is me talking from my you know what!
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Venkarl »

anchal wrote:Even the JNU jholawalas are recognizing the value of countering China

http://news.rediff.com/column/2010/sep/ ... ection.htm
Possibly, India now could be rethinking on appropriate policy options on Tibet, Taiwan or even on Xinjiang.
Srikanth Kondapalli is professor in Chinese studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
Egjaactly..I thought of same when posting this article yesterday in last page.

The author is
Dr. B R Deepak is Associate Professor in the Centre of Chinese and Southeast Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Venkarl »

Altair wrote:
ramana wrote:Or is this putting lifelines in Indian hands a CBM from PRC?
Two Possibilities:

.....
2. China is sending a message to India, albeit a cryptic one to "Be smart and join China and jointly we can screw US and Pakistan in Af-Pak region till they disintegrate".

..!
If there were no territorial disputes between India and China.

If HH DL is handed over to Beijing

If China gives us all info on Pakis and do off with pakis

the above possibility would be a smart thing to do....however...with all these "ifs" close to impossibility...we can rule out such smart messages....only message I get is "I am the King of Asia and you don't mess up with me when I pass through Asian territory or waters"
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Lalmohan »

china offering us a deal with paquis is like sauron offering his deal to saruman
ultimately there can only be one dark lord
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Venkarl »

Interesting excerpt from Ramana's link of detente bet china and India
China worried regularly that India would drift into the US camp, but in
the end was confident that ‘India’s DNA does not allow itself to become
subordinate to the US like Britain and Japan’. The country is simply too ancient,
too big and too self-absorbed to yield again to alien Diktat.
Probably MMS is trying to hit this confidence by singing duets with USA.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Arihant »

Venkarl wrote:
Arihant wrote:Cross-posted from the PRC thread:

This article appeared today in the Taipei Times - very appropriate given recent discussion on this forum.
EDITORIAL : Does Taiwan need nuclear weapons?

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 23#p939923

Arihant saab...I have mentioned "this" editorial in last page...I thought you'd respond to that post. :|
Sorry Venkarl-ji - slipped on that one...
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Arihant »

Lalmohan wrote:KMT needs to rescind its views on tibet and arunachal first - publicly
Somewhat complicated for the KMT to do - as I was saying some days back, it is tied up in historical binds, and undoing one requires undoing others (remember that not too long ago, the KMT maintained a fictitious Chinese senate in Taiwan - with senators representing provinces of China that they had never set foot on). Which is to say that a pragmatic engagement with right shade of KMT types is feasible. Having said that, KMT is not the best option for India - the DPP is infinitely better....
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by svinayak »

Venkarl wrote:
ramana wrote:The odd thing is both the POK and the Myanmar route brings the PRC lifelines within Indian grasp. Yet it is being touted as a move to hedge for Pacific blocade by US and the Straits of Malacca chokehold!!!
Are they not putting their throats in our hands? In case of full blown war..India might simply choke them to coal and wood...I wouldn't talk about Delhi's will on this as it'd be a self loathing act. :mrgreen:
:mrgreen:
That is what they have sold to PRC elite about having their own supply lines on land and sea unlimited.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

Anchal, Srikanth Kondapalli is hardly a johlawallah. He is an eminent scholar from IDSA. Its good that he has taken over as the Prof of Chinese studies at JNU. A subtle shift to the nationalist interests.


Rajaram, Thanks for the info. Are there other presentations? Reason I ask is there is world of difference between a puzzle and a mystery. A mystery one doesn't know all the pieces. In a puzzle all the peices are there and its a matter of fitting them right to see if its traditonal dragon or a genetically altered snake!

Meanwhile China challenge seems to be the flavor of the day....
from Pioneer, 14 Sept 2010
EDITS | Tuesday, September 14, 2010 | Email | Print | | Back


The dragon takes a leap
September 14, 2010 8:45:23 PM

Sandhya jain

China has emerged as a serious challenger to American hegemony on the Eurasian landmass. It will be less easy to out-manoeuvre Beijing

Catching a somnolent Indian political and security establishment unawares, the Chinese dragon has taken virtual charge of the strategic Gilgit-Baltistan in the north-west corner of the undivided kingdom of Kashmir. This — like the 38,000 sq km in Ladakh connecting Tibet and Xinjiang, and 5,000 sq km in Shaksgam Valley given by Pakistan in 1963 — is Indian territory acceded on October 26, 1947 by Maharaja Hari Singh, but lost to Pakistani invaders by a Prime Minister who allowed himself to be manipulated by Governor-General Louis Mountbatten.

India’s loss was sealed by the US-dominated United Nations that froze the status quo via Australian jurist Owen Dixon and Czech-American Josef Korbel, who was supposed to represent India. For Mountbatten, who had urged Hari Singh to join Pakistan, this was no mean feat; he breezed off to England with India partitioned on three frontiers, its elite none the wiser.

Korbel’s daughter, Ms Madeleine Albright, became Secretary of State to US President Bill Clinton, which only goes to show how the imperial West protects its geo-political-strategic interests through generations of committed ‘mandarins’ while spouting the rhetoric of democracy and open society. Indians nursing the Clinton-sold dream of ‘emerging superpower’ must realise that greatness comes from a national understanding of power, not mindless adherence to a pretended friendly superpower.

Indian analysts fell into frenzy after former journalist Selig Harrison revealed the new geo-political reality in The New York Times (August 26, 2010). The article, which said 7,000 to 11,000 Chinese soldiers have moved into Gilgit-Baltistan is interesting on several counts.

Beijing, says Mr Harrison, wants to secure access to the Persian Gulf via Pakistan. Currently, it takes 16 to 25 days for Chinese oil tankers to reach the Persian Gulf. Once the high-speed rail and road links through Gilgit-Baltistan are done, cargo from China will reach Pakistani naval bases at Gwadar, and Pasni and Ormara on the Makran coast, within 48 hours.

People’s Liberation Army engineers and soldiers are working on the railroad and also extending the Karakoram Highway that links Xinjiang province with Pakistan. Other projects include dams, expressways, and 22 secret tunnels. These could house the projected gas pipeline from Iran to China (excluding India because of our self-destructive loyalty to the US); they could equally store missiles and hence challenge American designs on the Yellow Sea, South China Sea and Indian Ocean. Washington is worried because Islamabad's support for the Taliban and offer of passage to the Persian Gulf to China proves it is not an ‘ally’. Perhaps it is just a major non-NATO mercenary. :mrgreen:

New Delhi must ponder over Mr Harrison’s advocacy of a “settlement” of Kashmiri demands for autonomy on both sides of the ceasefire line. Mr Harrison knows the State legally ceded to India in 1947. He knows the Shias of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir hate Pakistan; he avoids assessing their possible reaction to the Han Chinese soldiers if they stay too long.

But Mr Harrison does not make even polite noises about the return of Indian territory to India. Instead, he brazenly asks New Delhi to join hands with Washington, DC to ensure that Beijing is denied a foothold in Gilgit-Baltistan and does not take it over like Tibet. Islamabad has been asked to cooperate, a polite way of telling the Generals to boot out the PLA, an unlikely scenario.


{In my comments on the Harrison article, I had pointed out that it was an US agenda article depite Harrison's long support for India! Sandhya Jain also suggests its a way to pry Kashmir from India. Again it goes with what I earlier said of PRC and US being two sides of the problem for India.}


So what’s the score for New Delhi? First, by getting into northern Pakistan, China is adjacent to the strategic Siachen Glacier, where the Pakistani Army is deployed on one side. Peaceniks, Track II and assorted jholawallahs who advocate demilitarisation of the glacier — as a prelude to a Pakistani, and now Chinese walkover — must be made to hold their tongues, or tried as foreign agents.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh must cease all talk about porous borders. All our frontiers are open — land and sea. We must upgrade the border infrastructure on a war-footing (think what we could have done with the money looted for the Commonwealth Games fiasco!) and fix our neighbourhood diplomacy with Myanmar, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Iran, Iraq, and resist the temptation to needle China.

Of course, India cannot ignore provocations like Beijing's refusal of a visa to Northern Command chief Lt Gen BS Jaswal and rightly cancelled all military exchanges with China until the issue is resolved. We need some reciprocal action for the stapled visas granted to Indians from Jammu & Kashmir; so far we have penalised our own citizens by not letting them travel on such documents, a correct move in itself, but one which does not redress the issue.

Above all, India must recognise that Pakistan is the fulcrum of the Persian Gulf-Central Asia strategy of America (whom it mistakenly views as a friend) and China (whose enmity it exaggerates). If New Delhi is touchy about Beijing giving Islamabad two nuclear reactors (breaching Nuclear Suppliers Group guidelines) it cannot overlook the covert American aid to AQ Khan.

China has emerged as a serious challenger to American hegemony on the Eurasian landmass, the first real threat since the smashing of Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia, and one whose elite will be less easy to manipulate and out-manoeuvre, unless Christian missionaries succeed in penetrating the upper echelons of the Communist Party of China. Undeterred by American hostility, China is helping Iran's nuclear ambitions, and has reportedly sold long-range solid-fuel missiles to Saudi Arabia, which can hold nuclear warheads. The gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China, bypassing Russia, is another power statement.

China has suffered tremendously at the hands of Western and Japanese imperialism, and has worked hard to rise again in the comity of nations. It has studied the Anglo-American geopolitical strategies that caused the two World Wars, and, unlike India, has realised that Islam is the best buffer against the West and Asia, and can also help achieve Chinese geopolitical and security interests. Hence the cultivation of Pakistan from the time of President Ayub Khan, the Saudi dynasty, and so on. The chink in Beijing’s armour is the CIA-trained mercenary jihadis of Pakistan, who can be moved from the Northern Areas into Xinjiang.

{I}{US needs an independent Cashmere to facilitate this}[/i]

For India, a collateral benefit of Chinese presence in Gilgit-Baltistan is that it has nixed plans to delink Jammu & Kashmir from India by creating an East Timor-like situation in Srinagar Valley prior to President Barack Obama’s visit to New Delhi, thereby forcing UN intervention and plebiscite.

{Correct assessment. With PRC in Gilgit all the stone throwing comes to naught. No revoking or dilution of AFSPA. Even Omar Abdullah might have to go as he ruined the situation to gain brownie points.}
Note comment in the above op-ed...
AWAKE INDIA: LEARN TO LEAD ALL OF SOUTH ASIA NOT FOLLOW US-UK-EU DESIGNS
By Maheswar in Kaandu on 9/14/2010 5:03:00 AM

Churchill and Roosevelt correctly foresaw that India would pose a real challenge to Western civilization and (wrongly as it's now China) their economic dominance of the globe. Hence they encouraged and sustained the partion of British India. Now enter the dragon to make more complex the South Asian connundrum currently exemplified by Kashmir.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Varoon Shekhar »

Sandhya is a little too non-chalant in her assessment of Chinese geo-political aims, including the one about Islam being a bulwark against Anglo-American dominance.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

How do you say that? Most chatterati are the mouthpieces of the thinkeratti in Delhi circles.

What they are saying is PRC has turned radical Islamist states on the West. Or turned West developed weapon on themselves.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RamaY »

RajeshA wrote:The Chinese threat is very much real!
Well said RajeshA-ji. Actions speak louder than words. PRC's actions in many issues speak loudly of their intentions.

If PRC is as weak and India is as strong as Shiv-ji proclaims then PRC wouldn't do what it has been doing in NE, AP, Tibet, POK, Burma etc., Psyops for psyops sake is complete BS in a discussion.

A threat to Indian national interests will remain so until it is addressed and mitigated, no matter how we perceive. The major challenger to Indian geopolitical interests for past 100 years to next 100 years would be self interests of USA/PRC combine.

GOI needs to prepare for this eventuality irrespective of terrain and economy. USSR/USA/PRC didn't become super powers after achieving the economic/military supremacy. They made clear of their intentions first and then augmented them with military-industrial complex. Strong economy is a consequence of that preeminence.
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