Managing Chinese Threat

[svinayak]

http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/ ... orm-rising

13 June 2009
Red Storm Rising
Tiananmen is long past. Right now, it’s time to wake up and smell the gunpowder. As the Asian Century unfolds, India must get its act together to prevent its powerful northern neighbour from usurping the country’s future
2
BY Ninad D. Sheth EMAIL AUTHOR(S)
CHINA

A new Great Game is playing out. It is apparent in China’s encirclement of India through military aid, diplomatic support and manoeuvres to gain port access in the South Asian region

Deng Xiaoping was given to one-liners. “Cross the river by feeling the pebbles,” China’s former premier famously said on the adoption of market reforms. But the analogy goes well with attempts to bridge the gulf between a belligerent China on the rise and a nail-chewing India on the lookout—and the pebbles are not smooth.

The 20th anniversary of China’s brutal suppression of the Tiananmen uprising may have kept democracy wonks occupied across the world last week. Yet, the relationship between China and India, as they emerge from their colonial past to reclaim their economic trajectories and prosperity, could well be the biggest story of the so-called ‘Asian Century’. It is a story of new global competition and old mutual suspicion, of economic growth yet diplomatic distance. Of dangerous unsettled borders and a potent arms race. It is a tale of international diplomacy trying to offset regional intrigues.

In other words, a new Great Game is playing out. It is apparent in China’s encirclement of India through military aid, diplomatic support and manoeuvres to gain port access in the South Asian region. It is visible in remote oil fields and bauxites mines in Africa, where both compete. It is palpable even in Silicon Valley, as India cedes cyberspace to a newly computer-savvy China. Signs can be seen even on Indian shopshelves, as China storms the market with low-priced factory products on the back of a mighty manufacturing machine and an artificially cheap currency.

What, really, is India’s counter plan?

Is there a China strategy at all?

These are worrying questions, and they demand hard answers. The thing is, China does not even consider India in the same league as itself. “India suffers from diplomatic myopia,” says Bharat Karnad, national security expert at Delhi think-tank Centre for Policy Research, “China is a nation which recognises only the language of power. After the Pokhran II nuclear blasts, we had a window of opportunity to come level with China. However, we were too timid. India must assess the complexity and scope of Chinese power. The Chinese compete with us on all levels and this has to be recognised.”

India. the self claimed "largest democracy" on earth, could never get over with its inferiority complex against China. With one billion plus people, half of which are illiterate, a deeply rooted cast tradition, how can one expect India to govern effectively with its boasted form of government? China beats India at EVERY single category of social, economical development measure. And there’s no sign that the trend will reverse any time soon. Makes you wonder about the wisdom that the two countries chose for their individual development paths.
16 FEBRUARY 2010 | ERIC JOHNSON

[Karan Dixit]

I have been opposing the sale of Indian steel to China for a very long time but alas no one listens to me.

Karanji....even if all BRFites listens to you and agree with you..will it have any effect? Its Corporates and GoI babus who drive these things with myopic vision...

I was talking about GoI. I am pretty sure most BRFites already agree with me.

[RajeshA]

India's Nightmare Strategic Scenario

Rohitvats ji,

A little scenario here. I would appreciate your commentary on it.

Let's see how the String of Pearls could be secured by China and expanded on.

Sittwe: When China builds the infrastructure for shipping Oil & Gas through Sittwe, it would 1) Get the manpower from China to man it. Let's say the Chinese establish not only a Gas Pipeline pumping Gas from the Shwe Gas Fields but also Gulf Oil being pushed through an Oil Terminal in Sittwe. After some time the Chinese would expand it to be a full freight corridor to send their manufactured goods to West Asia and Europe. This means a lot more Chinese would come into the region. So one could expect not only Sittwe but the whole of West Myanmar would be controlled by the Chinese, i.e. the whole length of our border on the North-East with Myanmar. That is a long border, and the Chinese will be there in strength. Sittwe itself could support may be around 4-5 million Chinese, with another 100-200 thousand PLA soldiers.

In due time they promote it to a Navy Base with a full Armada of Navy ships sitting in Sittwe, supported by a long supply line of Chinese all the way from Yunnan. What makes then Sittwe have any less strategic depth than say Eastern Naval Command.

Gwadar: This is the second corridor they can support to the Indian Ocean. It sits right next to the Persian Gulf. Here comes up another Oil & Gas Terminal manned by Chinese with an economy easily able to support another 5-6 million Chinese. Also manufactured goods manufactured in Western China - Xinjiang & Tibet are transported to the markets from here. A big tract of depopulated Baluchistan gives Gwadar its strategic depth. The Pakjabi Army secures the supply lines - the Pipelinistan, the Freightlinistan. Here comes up another Naval Base, sufficient in strength to say the Western Naval Command. It can function fully autonomously and is in fact able to stop any Oil transport to India from the Gulf.

Chittagong: The Bangladeshis fearing Indian invasion has kept Indians away from Chittagong, but when the Chinese set up their base in Sittwe and build another port in Chittagong and link the two, so that the load can be shared between Sittwe and Chittagong. Both the ports are linked by railroad, which carries freight to and fro. Since the Chinese have almost taken control of Western Myanmar and the whole economy is run by the Chinese, they are more than willing to swamp the Bangladeshi market with Chinese products. Awami League has lost power and been discredited as too close to the Indians. Khaleda Zia's BNP is in power and is more than happy to take Chinese security umbrella.

Hambantota: The Sri Lankans have welcomed the Chinese. Again the Chinese have swamped Sri Lankan markets with Chinese products that are offloaded at Hambantota. Chinese Naval ships sailing between Sittwe and Gwadar often call at Hambantota. There have often been close calls between Indian Navy and the Chinese Navy in the region.

Marao: The Chinese are building a naval base at Marao in the Maldives. The Pakistanis were perhaps again active to bring Gayoom and Muslim Maldives closer to the Chinese, and now the Chinese are building a base right in the middle of the Indian Ocean. There would be many Chinese naval ships stationed here securing the the shipping lanes. Some of the Chinese ships would also be used to stop piracy by Somali pirates. In any case, from here they will be able to keep a close watch over the Americans in Diego Garcia.

Diego Garcia: America had to cut back on its Naval commitments in Asia and so has pulled back from Diego Garcia. The Chinese paid a handsome amount to the Americans to take control of the Naval Base there. In return the Chinese have promised the Americans that they would secure the cargo shipping through Indian Ocean.

PoK: The whole of Gilgit-Baltistan has been taken over by the PLA. The area has its strategic depth in Xinjiang. There are about 150,000 PLA soldiers living in the area. The whole economy of Gilgit-Baltistan is based on the PLA presence in the region. They have two big Airbases in Gilgit, and Skardu, manned by PLAAF. The KKH has been widened and strengthened. Oil & Gas Pipelines run through it. A huge amount of infrastructure has come up. There is a train that runs through PoK connecting Pakistan and Xinjiang.

The Sunni Muslims who were sent to live here by the Pakjabi Army have been moved back to Pakistan. The Shia of Gilgit and Baltistan are subject to Chinese rule.

The Pakjabis are responsible for guaranteeing the security of Freight and Oil&Gas Pipelines running through Pakjab and a depopulated Baluchistan.

As the KKH and the Pipelines run through Chinese controlled PoK and TSPA controlled Pakjab and Baluchistan, the danger of attacks by Pushtun militias, the TTP is minimal. The TSPA has successfully integrated some of the violent militiamen from LeJ, SeS, JeM, etc. into the business of providing security, and it is financed by the Chinese, who gain from this corridor.

Nepal: In Nepal the Chinese have been able to put a regime of Maoists that listens to Beijing.

Sikkim: China is rethinking its recognition of Sikkim. It was probably a temporary measure.

Indian North-East: With Indian North-East being accessible only through the Chicken's neck around Sikkim, China is confident they can take it. Once China starts an invasion of Arunachal Pradesh on some pretext or another, and India responds, then all the pieces laid out by China will come handy -

• Maoists in power in Nepal allowing Chinese forces to pass through;
• Chinese-supported Bangladesh sending in its forces North to cut off Indian forces to pass through Bangladesh and putting pressure on the Chicken's Neck;
• Naxalites in India making it difficult for Indian forces to move freely;
• Chinese in Tibet with a huge border infrastructure ready to move in;
• Amassed PLA in Western Burma ready to move in and take over the North-East;
• Chinese Navy in Sittwe confronting the Eastern Naval Command,
• Chinese Navy in Gwadar confronting Western Naval Command,
• Chinese Navy in Marao confronting Southern Naval Command;
• Pakjabi Forces ready to move in into Kashmir supported by the Kashmir Valley Wahhabis;
• China's Airbases in PoK and Xinjiang ready to support Pakjabi move in Kashmir
• Nuclear Missiles in Tibet ready to take on Indian Strategic Command.

After the war comes to a close, India has lost its entire North East, West Bengal, Sikkim, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep Islands, Kashmir Valley, Ladakh. Also Bhutan would be occupied by the Chinese.

And the infrastructure, especially Naval Ports and Indian Navy.

Is something like this possible?

[Carl_T]

We could establish a unified theatre command in the NE region, one that can operate autonomously even if the Chinese overrun the Siliguri area. It may require a big troop and a/c presence, backed up by a lot of stored fuel, and AAMs/BMs based in various sites.

[RajeshA]

India's Nightmare Strategic Scenario

We could establish a unified theatre command in the NE region, one that can operate autonomously even if the Chinese overrun the Siliguri area. It may require a big troop and a/c presence, backed up by a lot of stored fuel, and AAMs/BMs based in various sites.

The area would be under siege, from the North (Tibet), from the West (Bangladesh), from the East (PLA presence in Myanmar), from the North-West (Nepal, Chinese-occupied Bhutan).

For Bangladeshi Help, the Chinese allow the Bangladeshis to swamp Assam, West Bengal & Tripura. The Chinese keep the rest.

I think, one big mistake that we make when we look at China's 'string of pearls' doctrine is that we visualize it incorrectly. We envision a few small pearls scattered through the Indian Ocean, connected together the shipping lanes between them. We overlook:

• Where ever there will be container ports (Hambantota, Chittagong), not only those markets would be taken over by Chinese products, but the whole economy and development will be China dominated.
• There will be huge Oil & Gas Terminals (Gwadar & Sittwe)
• There will be huge Commercial Ports connecting China to IOR bypassing Malacca Straits choke point (Gwadar & Sittwe)
• There will be strong Chinese Naval presence in IOR (Gwadar, Sittwe, Marao)
• There will be huge Chinese populations manning these Oil & Gas Terminals plus Commercial Ports plus Naval Ports (Gwadar & Sittwe, many Chinese businessmen in Maldives)
• There will be freight and business corridors running from these Commercial Ports all the way to China manned either by PLA soldiers or PLA-friendly soldiers (Western Myanmar manned by PLA soldiers, Baluchistan & Pakjab manned by Pakjabi soldiers)

If all of these pearls come up, they will be causing the development of a whole coral reef around them swarming with Chinese - businessmen, engineers, service providers, military.

[ramana]

PRC in Gilgit-Baltistan is like 26/11. The GOI response will be same. we need to understand that.

[shiv]

Is something like this possible?

With respect Rajesh the best and easiest answer to such a question is "Of course, anything is possible". For a person like you who has shown fairly original thinking this is a retrogressive piece of paranoia of a genre that appears all too often on BRF.

"Why India is sure to lose" and "Why India has already lost" is a game that is played continuously on BR and your question is actually a chip on the shoulder that you are asking someone to knock off as many have done in the past. The first person who tries to rebut your conclusions can himself be put down by a series of meaningless arguments like "Chinese will allow Bangladeshis to do XYZ" with absolutely no analysis of time frame, logistics, local security an Indian ability to pressurize China, Bangladesh, Myanmar (which according to most such scenarios is non existent.

Why don't you answer your question yourself so someone else can knock down your own answers? When you are sketchy about details in your scenario you are leaving open a whole lot of possibilities that you can conjure up to demolish the argument of anyone who dares to say that what you have written is not possible. Therefore it will come true. Are you looking for an analysis or a soothing of your own personal paranoia?

[Manishw]

PRC in Gilgit-Baltistan is like 26/11. The GOI response will be same. we need to understand that.

The response is even worse.They tried to cover the whole thing up.The intriguing part is that the whole mess was exposed by the mouth piece of U.S.

[Prem]

2K Nukes and 2 Mill men under arm will have no porblem fixing, managing , reversing anything China can throw. Why do we keep forgetting that any nuke/war scenarios, PRC have more to loose. One condition, our own house , babu and buddhe netas must be put on steroids.

[Manishw]

2K Nukes and 2 Mill men under arm will have no porblem fixing, managing , reversing anything China can throw. Why do we keep forgetting that any nuke/war scenarios, PRC have more to loose. One condition, our own house , babu and buddhe netas must be put on steroids.

Correct way to go.
AFAIAC, I am keeping a hawk's eye with regard to developments regarding Agni-V.
Even if we are incapable of securing POK we should ensure that we spoil everyone's else's game.(At Least).

[shiv]

PRC in Gilgit-Baltistan is like 26/11. The GOI response will be same. we need to understand that.

With respect this is a comparison that is difficult to fathom. I am unable to see the relationship between an attack on hotels in Mumbai by terrorists who came from the sea to kill civilians with the presence of Chinese troops in Baltistan just across the border from China.

You say the GoI response "will be" the same. Are you reaching judgement before the act? The response after 26/11 was to strengthen internal security. Are you saying that internal security will be further strengthened in India? When you say that there is something "we need to understand". Have you understood the measures that have been taken in India for security of the civilian population and can you say why the GoI will do exactly that because of Chinese in POK?

[Dhiman]

So the question in my humble opinion is whether we want to live our neighborhood to slip under Chinese hegemony (thereby reducing our strategic space) or not? If history is our guide, loss of strategic space, should not be taken lightly.

Apologies for bad wording earlier. India going under Chinese hegemony is impossible not now not in 50 years. The issue is whether the neighborhood slips under Chinese hegemony. Hopefully netas will wake up.

[Dhiman]

Even if we are incapable of securing POK we should ensure that we spoil everyone's else's game.(At Least).

Exactly But I think India is going to have a golden opportunity to take back atleast the Gilgit/Balistan part of POK within the next 5 years provided that netas are up to it. Look at it this way: China by involving itself in Gilgit/Balistan and this ridiculous Kashmir passport thing is giving us a very good reason to do so, while Pakistan is getting exponentially weaker.

[shiv]

The issue is whether the neighborhood slips under Chinese hegemony.

Well said.

Having said that - I have struggled since 9-11 to express a thought I keep having as an analogy.

If you look at the behavior of cockroaches (real ones, not Pakis) you find that they appear in places where humans don't visit or look at, and they move about in paths in which it is difficult for humans or other animals to reach them. One could ask "Does this mean that the cockroaches are intelligent? Does it mean that each individual cockroach is thinking - Hey the human will squash me on the bathroom floor so let me take the long route along the corner and under the sink. More likely the roach is not doing any thinking. It so happens that cockroaches who are wired up to take the flat floor route get killed soon and those cockroaches wired up to move surreptitiously tend to survive.

That is exactly what happens with world events, even terrorism. The one that gets through is the one that is least likely to be caught or opposed. How this applies to Chinese hegemony is to try and picture China as a bright light and Chinese hegemony is the areas that light reaches. The light will reach every area that it can reach and where there is nobody to prevent it. The light need not even know beforehand where it is going - but it will reach a place that remains unshaded to direct or reflected light. What this means to a power that wants to "prevent hegemony" is that this opposing power has to try and predict where Chinese hegemony will reach. It is often impossible to predict what route that hegemony takes.

For example India may say "Ok we will explore for gas in Myanmar and do a deal with them". We look at the deal commercially - "is it viable for us and is it profitable for both us and the the Myanmarese?". China on the other hand may look at a deal with Myanmar as a future life line . The cost for them is too high to worry about profits. The Chinese then tell the Myanmarese "We will build everything. We will pay you. You spend nothing. You do nothing." So the Chinese actually under go a loss or have a smaller profit margin than the Indian company - but i is a strategic investment for them But would have been worth the money for India? This is a question that cannot be answered directly. if India can get gas from elsewhere and can bomb the crap out of the Chinese facility in Myanmar, we are keeping costs down for us and potentially raising the cost for China. If China says "We will provide security in Myanmar" then China will have to provide security all over Myanmar because India can hit any part of Myanmar and make the regime suffer. Chinas costs become higher that way.

Hegemony in my view is something that you exert by your power.

Powers A and B can exert hegemony over small states X, Y and Z

If A exerts hegemony over X, Y and Z - it is not necessary for B to oppose A. All that is needed is to intimidate X, Y and Z.

[TonyMontana]

Hegemony in my view is something that you exert by your power.

Powers A and B can exert hegemony over small states X, Y and Z

If A exerts hegemony over X, Y and Z - it is not necessary for B to oppose A. All that is needed is to intimidate X, Y and Z.

What? How does that work? Bully someone into not being bullied by another? Are you saying if India intimaidate X Y and Z, then X Y and Z wouldn't fall under Chinese hegemony?

[Manishw]

What? How does that work? Bully someone into not being bullied by another? Are you saying if India intimaidate X Y and Z, then X Y and Z wouldn't fall under Chinese hegemony?

It means(for eg) that if Sri Lanka continues to tango with the PRC, then a suitable blow should be administered to Sri lanka to see the reality.

[shiv]

What? How does that work? Bully someone into not being bullied by another? Are you saying if India intimaidate X Y and Z, then X Y and Z wouldn't fall under Chinese hegemony?

Yes. It has happened before in India's neighborhood. I will leave it to you to do the guesswork but will give you a hint. It was a request for an American base. And China is doing exactly that to Taiwan. China is limiting Taiwan's choices by intimidation. That is hegemony.

[TonyMontana]

It means(for eg) that if Sri Lanka continues to tango with the PRC, then a suitable blow should be administered to Sri lanka to see the reality.

Wouldn't that push Sir Lanka further into Chinese hands? You're fully awares about what happens when China tried to intimitate her neighbours right? Maybe China should proliferate to Sri Lanka... I kid I kid.

Yes. It has happened before in India's neighborhood. I will leave it to you to do the guesswork but will give you a hint. It was a request for an American base. And China is doing exactly that to Taiwan. China is limiting Taiwan's choices by intimidation. That is hegemony.

Sucks to be the little guy I guess.

[Manishw]

[quote="TonyMontana"] Maybe China should proliferate to Sri Lanka... I kid I kid.

Well If that seems to be the policy then go ahead.
If it seems to be a brilliant move to hand over nukes to Pakistan then let me tell you that if those idiot's that China has equipped with Nukes ever decide to use it then it won't be a two some game.China will feel the heat equally as will India to say nothing of Pakistan.

[ShivaS]

Dont worry

Indian is closely watching the situation and will give fitting reply when time comes....

PRC just improving some roads,some railways, some missiles here and there scattered so that non state actors never get them into their hands.

Building some ports in Gadwar in the north west and some ports near Colombo in the south, some in Burmato the North east and some in Chittagong in the east. Indian Navy will exercise withPRC in Bay off Bengal.

[Dhiman]

It means(for eg) that if Sri Lanka continues to tango with the PRC, then a suitable blow should be administered to Sri lanka to see the reality.

At least in the Indian Ocean, it is the Chinese who are acting like cockroaches right now. SL offered Hambantota to India first, but we didn't think it was a financially viable idea , so the Chinese stepped in. Similar thing happened with Colombo port recently where no Indian company bid for the project, so Chinese companies stepped in. Plus the Sri Lankans fully understand that there would be trouble when push comes to shove. From http://www.dailymirror.lk/print/index.p ... tmare.html:

However, reports of its seeking naval bases in Maldivian islands and in the Sea of Aden, while simultaneously building modern port facilities in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan would not fool any one of its Naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean. In the circumstances , it is the view of some that if any day China utilizes the Hambantota Port for military exercises , not only India even the Western countries led by America will sharply react to it. In that event , there is room for Mahinda’s cherished Hambantota Port dream turning into a gruesome nightmare , much worse and horrendous than the nightmare Jayewardene experienced in connection with his Trincomalee Port.

But, if China can put pressure on SL to deny visa to Dalai Lama (thereby becoming the only Buddhist country to do so), then India should put pressure on SL to deny entry to Chinese Navy Ships. That is where our foreign policy needs to get more aggressive. What needs to me made clear to SL is that if they are going to dance to the chinese security interests (chinese naval visits, dalai lama, etc) then at the very least they better dance to Indian security interests as well.

[Nihat]

PRC in Gilgit-Baltistan is like 26/11. The GOI response will be same. we need to understand that.

Please do elaborate Sir Ji. How exactly are the two comparable?

[Sanku]

Well look at the strings of pearl in this way, what does China lose? At worst these will be lighting strike points during a war with a potential enemy in IOR, which will tie up a section of enemies resources.

In peace its a advance post for CPC, for listening, for intelligence gathering, early warning, for alternate trade routes, for quicker response if any of their assets in Africa, West asia or IOR gets threatened (imagine sending a flotilla from South China sea)

So all in all Win-win for Chinese, and loss of operating space for us, or slow asphyxiation.

We will like the Indian jawans clambering up the Kargil heights, with Chinese already present on the posts staring us down, and unlike the roaches, they will have also ensured supply lines, which we can interdict, but not completely cut off (through PoK and Myanmar)

So EVEN without the nightmare scenario by RajeshA (which can come true in 30-50 years if China makes the other countries completely beholden to them) the situation is pretty grim.

Not accepting the writing on the wall will be fiddling while Rome burnt, while the current GoI has done that for 6 years, we can understand their reasons, to that here on BRF is of no value.

[Pratyush]

Guys,

The responses proposed on this thread are dealing mostly with the military dimension. But what the string of pearls is doing is, a rolling back the Indian influence in a systematic manner. To an extent that when push comes to shove it won't matter what the Indian military can do to the pearls and that's the problem.

If India allows the PRC with an opportunity to establish a foothold in the IOR. Then even if the pearls don't have any military utility they will still cause India to lose influence in the nations where the Chines have been allowed a foothold.

The issue if not the military capability / utility . But rather of the economic and political influence. Once we lose in the near abroad it will become very difficult to regain it.

As of this moment the actions of the GOI are of a govt that has conceded the point. The most visible pointer to me is making Chines language a part of the CBSE syllabus by the HRD ministry under Kapil Sibal.

It seems to be a way of making Indians prepared for serving the PRC in the very near future.

So how do we project the Indian influence in the near abroad when we are accepting the Chines influence at home. That is my question.

JMT

[RajeshA]

India's Nightmare Strategic Scenario

Is something like this possible?

With respect Rajesh the best and easiest answer to such a question is "Of course, anything is possible". For a person like you who has shown fairly original thinking this is a retrogressive piece of paranoia of a genre that appears all too often on BRF.

There is a system to the madness.

"Why India is sure to lose" and "Why India has already lost" is a game that is played continuously on BR and your question is actually a chip on the shoulder that you are asking someone to knock off as many have done in the past. The first person who tries to rebut your conclusions can himself be put down by a series of meaningless arguments like "Chinese will allow Bangladeshis to do XYZ" with absolutely no analysis of time frame, logistics, local security an Indian ability to pressurize China, Bangladesh, Myanmar (which according to most such scenarios is non existent.

There are two parts of the scenario

1. Military and Economic Buildup Around India by China
2. Possible Loss of Substantial Land by India in a military defeat by China

1) With respect to military and economic buildup around India by China, the list of my contentions above are of the following types:

1. Claims based on the imperatives of China to develop its Western provinces and to bypass choke points for its economic growth, and what would be required for that. This establishes the 'legitimate' economic drivers and justifications.
2. Claims based on current PRC's projects in various countries - Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives. These are facts. No secrets about them. It establishes the focal points around which PRC wishes to build its IOR Strategy.
3. Claims based on models of organic growth of ecosystems around an Industry or Economic Activity. This establishes the 'legitimate' growth imperative of those focal points. It tells why these pearls will grow into economic coral reefs and how these coral reefs will connect to each other.
4. Claims based on the natural urge to protect economic investments using hard power. As such Chinese will claim their Oil & Gas Terminals, Commercial Ports and their substantial trade through the shipping lanes require military protection. This establishes the 'legitimacy' of militarization.
5. Claims based on the military's tendency to make well protected encampments and to minimize security vulnerability of its military operations and deployments. China as such would boost its Naval presence substantially to match the rivals in the Indian Ocean. This establishes the pattern of naval growth.
6. Claims based on the military's tendency to secure the supply lines to its military deployments. As such the big naval bases would be protected by corridors connecting these forward bases with mainland China. This establishes the assurance of strategic depth.
7. Claims based on the patterns of expansion of superpowers - expansion of economic activity, securing economic activity through military means, military domination.
8. Claims based on permissive behavior of countries of the region towards PRC, and their grudging to hostile attitudes towards India. This establishes the vulnerability of the region.
9. Claims based on Chinese past attitude towards India. This establishes the motive.
10. Claims based on the big engineering projects China has already implemented, and as such has the engineering and managerial skills, Claims based on Chinese manufacturing capacity and pattern of Chinese trade with the world, Claims based on China's foreign reserves of 2.5 trillion USD, Claims based on China's modernization plans. This establishes the capability.

That is pretty much the algorithm. It is open for discussion on all points: whether the facts are true; whether the assumptions are correct; whether the drivers are truly there; whether the Chinese intentions are truly such as I have made them to be; etc. etc. Everything is up for questioning, and I'll try to defend as much as possible.

2) The subsequent scenario built on the above facts and algorithm, the Indian Territorial Loss, is in fact been proposed with "absolutely no analysis of time frame, logistics, local security and Indian ability to pressurize China, Bangladesh, Myanmar"

All this has not been done, because I do not intend to defend the scenario. I am not a military man and cannot claim much insight into the viability of the scenario. It is being thrown into the round for discussion, and for jointly finding out under what circumstances it could come true and under what circumstances it could be avoided. It needs a lot of fleshing out.

Why don't you answer your question yourself so someone else can knock down your own answers? When you are sketchy about details in your scenario you are leaving open a whole lot of possibilities that you can conjure up to demolish the argument of anyone who dares to say that what you have written is not possible. Therefore it will come true. Are you looking for an analysis or a soothing of your own personal paranoia?

Well I think, I've answered the question with a yes, when I proposed the scenario. I am simply trying to get the people interested and think over this issue.

I hope we can look beyond everything being an exercise in argument for argument's sake, and where proposing arguments and 'demolishing' them is not taken personally. I hope for a collective fleshing out of the scenario through a healthy discussion with inputs and analysis from all interested BRFites.

The intention is not to get my 'personal' paranoia soothed. It is to make it into a collective paranoia of BRF and Beyond, paranoia of a billion people, and then to demand of GoI to soothe it.

[RajeshA]

India's Nightmare Strategic Scenario


The effort is to establish a detailed sequence of possible events, of Chinese actions, and use it to plot the progress of Chinese takeover of India's strategic space on a scale. In the beginning this would be less detailed, but by observing Chinese behavior, deals with other countries, construction projects in planning, trade statistics, one would be able to make the plotting a lot more detailed, and would give us indications of new ways in which our strategic space can be constrained in the future. It should be an effort to plot the future of this region viz-a-viz Chinese influence.

It is a means to take out the factor of surprise from our relations with China. We say we were surprised by China in 1962. Why should we allow ourselves to be surprised again?! We should know several years beforehand what China's game plan is. We should know several years beforehand how China plans to consolidate its hold on any one of its prongs in the multi-pronged strategy to neutralize India, and what actions and acquisitions it will proceed with. We should already have the template of the puzzle-game China plans on filling out.

Unless we know all that, there is no way India would be able to respond properly. There is no way we would be able to snatch one of the puzzle pieces from under China's nose.

Instead of being stunned and shocked when China refuses to give visa to Lt-Gen B. S. Jaswal, we should feel confirmed that it corresponds to a foretold pattern of Chinese behavior, and that we were able to foretell it correctly.

Surprise is an element that India can ill afford with her dealings with China. I would like the scenario of Chinese designs in South Asia and IOR out there as open source, which all Indians are aware of and expect, for the simple reason, that that is the only way we can avoid it.

I would want, that it becomes impossible for GoI to plead lack of forewarning when trying to justify its shortcomings in defending India's strategic space.

Chinese psychology, behavior and designs should be better known and understood by BRF and other Indians, as say Pakistanis'.

Indian consciousness is so dominated by Pakistan, USA and Britain, and Hindu-Muslim relations that we have allowed the Chinese to work in the shadows and nibble away at our strategic space. That needs to change.

[Lalmohan]

rohitvats speaketh sense, i get the feeling that the dragon is doing some pre-emptive posturing to keep us on the hop

i am also left wondering if targeting taiwanese nationals outside the jama masjid was entirely circumstantial or not...

[Nihat]

Guys,

The responses proposed on this thread are dealing mostly with the military dimension. But what the string of pearls is doing is, a rolling back the Indian influence in a systematic manner. To an extent that when push comes to shove it won't matter what the Indian military can do to the pearls and that's the problem.

If India allows the PRC with an opportunity to establish a foothold in the IOR. Then even if the pearls don't have any military utility they will still cause India to lose influence in the nations where the Chines have been allowed a foothold.

The issue if not the military capability / utility . But rather of the economic and political influence. Once we lose in the near abroad it will become very difficult to regain it.

Okay

So now that we've established that the Chinese threat is mainly from Constricting India's sphere of influence because militarily speaking these series of ports are really quite futile as they are al within quick strike range of various missiles or fighters of the IAF.

But I wonder what kind of influence do we stand to loose.

Sri Lanka is a stones throw away from India and any attempt to subvert India's intrests will cost Lanka Dear and they know it , so they will always make sure never to antagonize india and always mantain good relations.

Speaking of Bangladesh - We enjoy excellent relations currently and since B'desh is geographically surrounded by India and connected to China only via Burma. It's safe to say that we enjoy a fair ammount of Influence over them. What more influence could we possibly want.

TSP - This is just an animal waiting to pounce on India and will get in bed with anyone who has even the slightest capacity to harm India. I agree that we do need to be vary of developments the Chinise make in TSP/

Burma - Frankly, this has always been a Chinese sphere of influence and we have only managed to anger it in the past. Reconciliatrly approaches have only been made now, we never enjoyed any influence over Burma.


Now unless we want to start behavig like TSP is, whereby it is so paranoid about Indian development activities in Afghanistan that it launches attacks on our counsulates, we should look at perhaps calming down a bit

and what kind of strategic influence are we talking about in the first place. Even back in the1950's and right uptill the mid-90's when China was not the force that it is now, our foreign policy was very much restricted to within the sub-continent, it is only now that we have, on the back of our economis strength recieved prominence in forums like G-20, IMF, world Bank, BRIC etc etc.

We will continue to remain the main player of IOR no matter how many ports the Chinese build in neighbouring coutries. It is them who are building these things out of fear of Naval disruption by India and their energy security effectivly being in the hands of Indian Navy and Air Force. Why is it that we are paranoid.


@ Pratyush - The post is not exactly a reply to you. I just use it as a refrence to emphasize point about gaining influence.

[Arihant]

rohitvats speaketh sense, i get the feeling that the dragon is doing some pre-emptive posturing to keep us on the hop

i am also left wondering if targeting taiwanese nationals outside the jama masjid was entirely circumstantial or not...

Been speaking to some Taiwanese nationals, and am worried, like you, that the targetting of Taiwanese nationals was not entirely circumstantial....

[Sanku]

So now that we've established that the Chinese threat is mainly from Constricting India's sphere of influence because militarily speaking these series of ports are really quite futile as they are al within quick strike range of various missiles or fighters of the IAF.

No we have not established anything like "series of ports are really quite futile", yes the first one "Constricting India's sphere of influence" is obviously true, but the second one is not.

The ports are military useful since
0) These are not "one hit wonders" which will go away with one salvo of Brahmos, they are vast facilities, and even if we damage and cripple them they will not be "knocked out" and disappear.
1) They are the picket lines at least (militarily speaking)
2) In case of Military conflict with a non-US non-India power (Vietnam?) It provides them additional bases to attack from, and a quick reaction to ships etc.
3) Act as support for Pakistan/Burma against their enemies (India/BD) if it comes to that. If Pakistan uses Gwadar as a main supply point (Karachi being cut off) WHEN 5 Chinese warships and 50,000 Chinese are living there, will India carry out strikes on Gwadar? (Yeah right) China is still not at war
4) Intelligence posts, maritime patrolling, submarine signatures
5) Ability to interdict supplies from Gulf

and many others....

And frankly the rest of Geo-pol does not even deserve a contemptuous reply, how can you even think about TSP behavior in the same vein as India's valid and pressing need to establish peace and security not only at home but in the entire region?

Any particular alacrity to score self goals and be over eager to neuter our already minimal requirements in the name of "peace and brotherhood"

[RajeshA]

Chinese Threat to Indian Navy

The ports are military useful since
0) These are not "one hit wonders" which will go away with one salvo of Brahmos, they are vast facilities, and even if we damage and cripple them they will not be "knocked out" and disappear.
1) They are the picket lines at least (militarily speaking)
2) In case of Military conflict with a non-US non-India power (Vietnam?) It provides them additional bases to attack from, and a quick reaction to ships etc.
3) Act as support for Pakistan/Burma against their enemies (India/BD) if it comes to that. If Pakistan uses Gwadar as a main supply point (Karachi being cut off) WHEN 5 Chinese warships and 50,000 Chinese are living there, will India carry out strikes on Gwadar? (Yeah right) China is still not at war
4) Intelligence posts, maritime patrolling, submarine signatures
5) Ability to interdict supplies from Gulf

and many others....

Sanku ji,
Good List.

Reposting a previous post in the current discussion context.

Published on Sept 17, 2010
Why China’s Navy is a Threat by James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara: The Diplomat

The anti-ship missile that vexes China-watchers is an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), a weapon whose range, speed and hitting power dwarf that of any cruise missile. Estimates vary, but should the PLA perfect its ASBM, Chinese racketeers could pound away at ships underway up to 2,000 miles away.

What would this mean? It means that PLA forces could range the entire South China Sea from mobile launchers positioned on Hainan Island or elsewhere along the South China coast. Loo counsels Southeast Asian navies to simply wait out a Chinese Navy that lacks a robust logistics fleet. But if PLA forces can use land-based weaponry to sink ships in port or cruising the South China Sea, then this amounts to a strategy of defeat and destruction.

But sea power is anyway about more than the fleet. Even if the PLA Navy proves unable to mount a continuous presence in the South China Sea—an assumption growing more doubtful by the day—systems able to influence events at sea from the land provide continuous virtual presence throughout the spectrum of conflict, from peacetime to wartime. This versatility explains the emphasis Chinese strategists now place on extended-range shore-based weaponry.

What this means is that if China deploys these Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles at Sittwe, Gwadar, or Marao in Maldives, they can neutralize the whole of the Indian Navy!

For the information, the distance between Sittwe and Visakhapatnam is 650 miles (1047 km). This missile's range is 2000 miles (3218 km).

Any particular alacrity to score self goals and be over eager to neuter our already minimal requirements in the name of "peace and brotherhood"

Some people will always try and do the work of the enemies - just lulling you back to sleep. They would like to claim that there is no qualitative or quantitative difference in the enemy's presence in the neighborhood. If earlier the enemy had a few huts outside our fortress a decade ago and now they have a whole battalion, they will tell you not to worry, even a decade ago they were there. Nothing can happen to us, as we are invulnerable.

This is just so much the same old beaten track of lulling one to ignore danger, that the concept should not be alien to any of us.

[RajeshA]

Pax Sinica - Cooperation with Dictators in Exploiting Natural Resources (Africa)

Mugabe's darkest secret: An £800bn blood diamond mine he's running with China's Red Army by Andrew Malone: Daily Mail

Working alongside henchmen from one of Africa’s most murderous regimes — headed by Robert Mugabe — the Chinese are here to oversee Beijing’s investment in the world’s most controversial commodity: blood diamonds.

High-ranking officials of China’s People’s Liberation Army, they have been striving to escape detection for their role in this blood-thirsty — but hugely lucrative — trade.

For here, carved out of the African bush, is a runway big enough for huge cargo planes. There is also sophisticated radar equipment, a fully-operational control tower and comfortable barracks for the Chinese officials overseeing the entire operation.

And twice a week, its wings wobbling on waves of thermals rising from this scorching corner of the continent, an Antonov An-12 cargo plane can be heard droning towards the airstrip.

The Antonov — developed by the Soviets and, like so much else, copied by the Chinese and manufactured en masse — carries men and equipment from a secret military airbase outside Zimbabwe’s capital Harare, whose job is to tear the gems from the earth. It deposits between eight and ten Chinese military officials, who work overseeing members of the Zimbabwean military, as well as local labour who work at gunpoint in slave conditions.

The departing flights leave with rough, uncut diamonds worth millions.

No flight plans are filed and there are no records of these trips. Such secrecy — and sophisticated organisation — is understandable. This is the centre of diamond fever, and the scene of the biggest diamond heist in history.

Here, at the Marange diamond fields in the far southeast of Zimbabwe, where four planes bound direct for China have thundered out of the secret bush runway already this year, astonishing natural wealth has been found in the soil. Indeed, so common are diamonds here that, for many years, local children used the ‘hard stones’ in catapults to hunt birds, not realising that they were firing unimaginable riches into the sky.

Imagine Indian Army doing something like that!!! This is the kind of Army India is up to - unscrupulous!

[RajeshA]

India's Defense Postures In Ladakh: A Wake Up Call by Subhash Kapila: Eurasia Review

Devoid of any inside insights to India's military planning or access to classified information on India's defense postures, as a strategic analyst with decades of experience in this field, one can assert that Indian Army's defense postures presently in Ladakh are sound only in terms of minimal defensive deployments to "defend" Ladakh.

India's defense postures in Ladakh, however, cannot be assessed as forcefully strong in terms of imposing dissuasion or generating "effective military deterrence" on China and Pakistan not to entertain any aggressive designs against the Ladakh Sector.

The Indian Government needs to "speed-track" the build-up of Indian Army defense postures in Ladakh to the level of "effective military deterrence" to deter China and Pakistan from military adventurism against the Ladakh Sector. This becomes a pressing military imperative in view of enhancement of China's and Pakistan's military capabilities overall against India and China's emergence as a substantive stakeholder in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

[shiv]

I would like to make a point about China.

I believe that it is quite possible that what is perceived by us Indians as "Hemming us in" or "restricting India's freedom of action" is no more than an overgrown and growing China making more and more demands on the earth's resources. In theory, if China could find a cheap route for oil though India they would go ahead and puh for such a route. But India offers several problems as far as china is concerned.

First, China has fought one war with India and the Chinese know that they would have to beg and grovel at India's knees if they became dependent on India for an Indian ocean route. If India decided to cut the supply - we would have China by one ball. I will refer to the other ball later.

So that rules India out.

Where else can they go?

1) Via the Malacca strait
2) Via a new canal to be built through Thailand
3) Via Myanmar
4) Via Pakistan.

Currently (2010) there is

• No route via Thailand
• No pipeline via Myanmar
• No pipeline via Pakistan

The ONLEEE route that exists for China oil is via two chokepoints
1) Gulf of Hormuz
2) Malacca strait

Now with China being such a pleasant and affable nation interested in coexistence with all, who on earth would want to be so nasty as to choke off Chinese oil via the gulf of Hormuz of Malacca strait?

There several powers who can choke off one or both these points.

Iran could do it - especially if there is war between Iran and her friends.

The US could do it if they were feeling nasty. Heck they could even block Malacca strait in case of war over Taiwan.

India of course is considered a pushover (on here). Many will insist that India will sit back and get defeated and do nothing, and quote 5000000 or 1000000000 years of Indian history to prove it. But there is cognitive bias here. Just because Indians are s1t scared of China it does not mean that the Chinese assume that all Indians are sh1t scared and give a walkover. The logic is simple. If China does benchoddgiri on India and India gives a walkover well and good. All the historians and soothsayers are correct. But what if Indians get khujli in their rearside and actually hit back and start hitting Chinese ships from Hormuz to Malacca? That will make all shipping slower, costlier and more dangerous. In fact mining some waters near one chokepoint will stop all shipping while international navies will try and clear it up.

So there are multiple reasons for China to see the Malacca route as insecure. What can they do? At best they can try and get bases where hinese shipping can be protected. This is your string of pearls. It's not as it its trying to keep India down, but to keep Chinese supplies going.

India enjoys tremendous "spoiling power" here but Indians are simply shivering in their dhotis. Truly Ayub Khan was a man with vision.

[RajeshA]

X-Posted from Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion Thread

Published on Sept 13, 2010
China's Obtrusive Presence in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: Implications For India and United States by Dr Subhash Kapila: South Asia Analysis Group

China in terms of political and strategic signaling to its adversaries does not act impulsively and therefore the Chinese challenge of changing the strategic status-quo in South Asia has to be viewed as a well thought out and calibrated Chinese strategy to counteract what it perceives as growing reinforcing of the US-India Strategic Partnership.

These combined moves by China and Pakistan seemed to have been coincidently timed with the United States wavering commitments in Afghanistan and an India emasculated by strategic indecisiveness and lacking strategic audacity in tackling its military threats from China and Pakistan, both singly and jointly.

Some may react to this Paper as sensationalizing a trivial issue involving Chinese assistance to Pakistan in upgradation of infrastructural development in its border regions. What must not be forgotten is that in such development trivia germinate the foundations of an enlarging China-Pakistan strategic nexus and collusiveness which is bound to generate reverberations amongst neighbors.

By making available the Karakoram Corridor to China, Pakistan in effect has enabled China to offset America’s maritime superiority choking China at the strategic chokepoints that dot China’s energy lifelines from the Gulf to China.

Pakistan in effect has therefore sided with the United States enemy and helped China in defeating American strategies to contain China’s rising military profile.

Taking off from the above is that in the ongoing United States-China power games Pakistan’s active assistance in enhancing the capacity of the Karakoram Corridor allows China to establish a meaningful and substantive strategic foothold in close proximity of the strategic Straits of Hormuz vital for American embedment in the Gulf Region andglobal energy supplies. Pakistan has therefore enabled force-multipliers to China against the United States when the Karakoram Corridor is coupled with Gwadur Port and Pakistan Navy bases on the Makran Coast.

China with the ongoing joint moves with Pakistan is now in a position to outflank United States military presence in Afghanistan. Further, with such enhanced postures, China can be inclined to be less helpful in solution of the Afghanistan conflict. China’s military presence in areas adjoining Afghanistan is likely to be used as a strong leverage by China against the United States.

China’s overall strategy has been to force the United States to exit the Asia Pacific. Pakistan’s current strategy is to prompt and induce the United States exit from Afghanistan. While China may not succeed in forcing USA out of the Asia Pacific, Pakistan seems to be making headway in prompting USA to withdraw from Afghanistan. Such a strategic vacuum so caused leaves China in a dominating position in Greater South West Asia with its Pakistan satellite doing the spadework.

Resultantly, the United States leverages in South Asia to restrain Pakistan’s military adventurism and its WMD proliferation get that much more curtailed. In actual fact, the most striking imperative for Pakistan for its strengthening strategic collusiveness with China is spurred by the pronounced national anti-Americanism predominating Pakistan and Pakistan’s strategy to shake-off United States strategic hold over Pakistan.

In a case of reversed strategic irony, “Pakistan as a frontline state in United States strategy so far, would now emerge as China’s frontline state in Chinese Grand Strategy against the United States”.

[RajeshA]

I believe that it is quite possible that what is perceived by us Indians as "Hemming us in" or "restricting India's freedom of action" is no more than an overgrown and growing China making more and more demands on the earth's resources.

The Pakistanis have only legitimate demands. They are afraid that as an agrarian country with large needs of fresh water, they are too much at the mercy of Indian benevolence, as all their rivers originate in Kashmir under Indian occupation. Indians should try and show understanding for this justified Pakistani fear of devious Indians. IWT does not suffice. Pakistan still remains susceptible to the mood in Delhi and to the 1500 dams in Kashmir.

For the sake of peace and harmony between Pakistan and India, India should stand aside and give Pakistan Kashmir, thereby avoiding a costly war.

It is high time that Indians understand, that Pakistan does not want to destroy India's territorial integrity, it is more like they want strengthen their water security.

[RamaY]

I believe that it is quite possible that what is perceived by us Indians as "Hemming us in" or "restricting India's freedom of action" is no more than an overgrown and growing China making more and more demands on the earth's resources.

Another gem from the Doc....

Other gems
1. India need not fear Pakistan as Pakistan is going down the toilet on its own - No action required
2. India needn't worry about raising tide of Islamic terrorism as islamism (note: not islam or Islamic society) is not a homogeneous phenomenon - No action required
3. POK is too difficult region and looks white on google maps - No action required
4. PRC string-of-perls: They are at the mercy of India (don't ask if GOI can ever destroy anyone of these bases located on a third-country's soil) - No action required

In summary, MMS administration has nothing to worry about and it is all pseudo-nationalists hegemony. All GOI has to worry about building toilets because that is their main obligation to Indian public.

Perhaps Shiv-ji reached the sweet-spot that he describes often

[Lalmohan]

shiv is making quite a different point folks

[Hari Seldon]

^^^Pray what point is that, sir? TIA.

[RamaY]

shiv is making quite a different point folks

I truly hope so!