Managing Chinese Threat

[Arjun]

China views the US exactly like Indian views China
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 04762.html

Guan accused the United States of being a "hegemon" and of plotting to encircle China with strategic alliances. The official saved the bulk of his bile for U.S. arms sales to China's nemesis, Taiwan -- Guan said these prove that the United States views China as an enemy.

The key to the story is this line from the above article: "China's stance on the issue is part of a concerted campaign to change a foundation of U.S. policy in the region -- its security relationship with Taiwan....Zhu rose to prominence in China in 2005 after he warned that if the United States came to Taiwan's defense in a war with China, Beijing would abandon its "no first use" doctrine on nuclear weapons and attack the United States."

This is normal negotiation that China is conducting with the US in its own style....essentially setting the redlines and making sure the US understands its core concerns. This setting of redlines and core concerns is exactly what India needs to be doing with China, especially given that we now have a glimpse of the negotiating style the Chines would find normal, and also since what China has been doing with Pakistan is morally 10x equivalent of what the US has done with Taiwan.

Frankly I don't find what China is doing to India as repugnant as India's lack of negotiating will to take a similar stance with China. At some point or maybe even now, we ought to be doing the same to the US, but that's a separate debate.

[Lalmohan]

in the news today, vietnam has demanded china hands back arrested fishermen
there is a definite concerted effort by the chinese to flex muscles in all directions at the moment

[Pratyush]

^^^ That just makes every one more cautious when it comes to dealing with the PRC. The list of potential nations that can come together to take on the PRC will increase with each new example of muscular diplomacy by PRC. Already we are seeing the following nations takingthe initial steps of getting together.

1 Japan
2 Vietnam
3 the US
4 India (Possibly).

If the 4 nations listed above can come together, the PRC will be hard pressed to get what iiy wants from any one of its neioughbours.

It will have to be extreamly cautios going forward.

Will the CCP have the wisdome to see what they are doing.

[Hari Seldon]

OmiGosh.....three cheers for PVN and ABV for going through with Pokhran II. Who knows what might have happened sans the very real protection offered by an N-deterrent? Yeah, yeah, I know SDRE fear psychosis when faced with cheena and all whatever but still, bears thinking, no?

[Lalmohan]

prc is flexing muscles in all directions simultaneously
wonder if they are worried about what ombaba might say during deshyatra?

[Pratyush]

LM, If they were worried then they may make conciliatory statements to the nations on the perephery. As of this moment they have not made any. Lets wait and watch.

[RajeshA]

Published on Wednesday, October 6, 2010
By Bill Gertz
Chinese missile test: The Washington Times

Turkish-Chinese war games

The Pentagon said Wednesday that the Turkish government promised to protect U.S. defense technology during its recent military exercises with China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) — drills that analysts say may have compromised key NATO war-fighting secrets.

Army Lt. Col. Tamara Parker, a Pentagon spokeswoman, confirmed European press reports of the unusual aerial military exercises last month involving U.S.-made Turkish jets and Chinese Su-27 fighters that engaged in simulated aerial combat.

"The government of Turkey is committed to the NATO Alliance and the continuation of strong ties to the United States, and Turkey assured us they would take the utmost care related to their possession of U.S. and NATO technologies," Col. Parker told Inside the Ring.

However, she did not address the issue of whether the Chinese military might have learned sensitive NATO aerial combat information.

Jane's Defense Weekly, quoting Turkish diplomatic sources, stated that the exercises involved less-capable U.S.-made F-4s and Chinese Su-27s, but not more advanced U.S.-made F-16s.

Ed Timperlake, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot and former Pentagon technology security official, said allowing the Chinese air force to exercise with a NATO ally poses security risks.

"'You fight like you train' is a saying from Top Gun school," Mr. Timperlake said. "The Turkish air force helping the PLAAF to see NATO combat tactics and training up close and personal is a very bad idea. It is deadly serious stuff."

Mr. Timperlake said the exercises and Turkey's warming relations with neighboring Iran should lead the Pentagon to rethink its decision to sell the new F-35 jet to Turkey.

Richard Fisher, a specialist on China's military at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, also criticized Turkey's military for conducting aerial exercises with a communist power that poses a threat to U.S. and allied security interests in Asia. "It's not a good thing," he said.

Mr. Fisher said Turkey in the late 1990s used Chinese technology to jointly develop short-range B611 missiles.

The Tehran Press TV Online reported on Monday that Iran opened its airspace to the Turkish and Chinese jets.

"All of this raises questions about Turkey's continued slide away from the West," Mr. Fisher said.

The joint Turkish-Chinese war games also were held before the scheduled visit to Turkey by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao.

China basically has neutralized the Uyghur secessionist threat. The Nationalist Uyghur uprising would have meant support from Turkic countries, mainly Turkey. The Islamist Uyghur uprising would have meant support from Islamist groups in Af-Pak region, and by having Pakjabi Army at its beck and call, the PRC need not be all too worried about Islamist threat either. In fact the PRC influence is so great in Pakistan, one would expect PRC to use the Jihadis against West and India with plenty of room for plausible deniability.

It seems China, Turkey and Iran are building a certain alliance. One could ask whether it is the Pakistanis again who have again brought PRC and another power closer, this time Turkey. It can of course, also be the case that Iran wants to wean away Turkey from NATO, so PRC and Iran have worked closely to that effect.

India should closely observe how China manages to pick up some of the strongest allies of the rival - US's partner Turkey, India's partners Nepal and Sri Lanka, etc.

[RajeshA]

Published Sep 30, 2010
Turkey, China conduct joint air maneuvers: Today's Zaman

Turkish and Chinese militaries recently conducted a joint aerial exercise in central Anatolia, the first such exercise involving the air forces of NATO member Turkey and China.

The joint exercise was part of Turkey’s Anatolian Eagle maneuvers, which have so far been carried out jointly with US, other NATO countries and Israel. They took place sometime this month in the central Anatolian province of Konya, where Anatolian Eagle maneuvers traditionally take place, Today’s Zaman has learned. Turkish F-16s and Chinese SU-27s and Russian-made MIG-29s took part in the joint exercise, staging a mock dogfight in central Anatolian airspace. The exercise comes ahead of a planned visit by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Turkey next month, which officials say will boost relations to a new level. The two sides are expected to sign several agreements on economic and cultural cooperation during the Chinese prime minister’s visit.

Turkey has recently modified its security policy, removing neighbors from a list of countries considered as threats to national security.

Published on Sun Oct 3, 2010
Iran opens airspace to China warplanes: Press TV

The Islamic Republic of Iran has reportedly opened its airspace to Chinese warplanes taking part in joint military maneuvers with Turkey.

Published on Monday, October 4, 2010
Turkey invited China to join NATO air exercise after U.S. withdrew: World Tribune

They said the Chinese were invited after the United States and other NATO members had turned down an invitation to participate in Anatolian Eagle in the late summer of 2010.
"The United States immediately expressed its displeasure in private," a Turkish source said.

On Sept. 30, the Turkish daily Taraf reported the Chinese participation in Anatolian Eagle, based in the Turkish air base in Konya. Taraf said Washington monitored the Chinese air maneuvers and demanded an explanation from the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan.

Taraf did not identify the Chinese aircraft that flew in the exercise, which was first held in 2001 with Israel and the United States participating. The sources said this marked the first time that Chinese warplanes were allowed to participate in an exercise designed for NATO.

In 2009, Turkey banned Israel from participating in Anatolian Eagle. Later, the United States and several NATO allies decided to reduce participation in the exercise.

The sources said China and Turkey have sought to expand military cooperation. The two countries have been engaged in rocket production, including WS-1, a 302mm weapon with a range of 150 kilometers. Turkey's state-owned Roketsan renamed the rocket TR-300 Kasirga, later acquired by the Turkish Army.

Published on Oct 06, 2010
By Jorge Benitez
New questions about Turkey's secret military exercise with China: Atlantic Council of US

But the White House was irritated by the Turkish-Chinese aerial maneuvers. In addition, Washington has reportedly prevented Turkey from flying the US, Lockheed Martin made, advanced F-16s in its inventory during the training exercises with China, stemming from concerns that Beijing would have an access to US technology and collect intelligence to a certain extent. That explains why the Turkish Air Forces flew older US made F-4 fighters during the maneuvers and why the Chinese Air Force has reportedly used Russian made Su 27 as well as either Mig 29s or the older version of Mig 20s.

In fact if China wants to establish a military alliance against NATO in Asia, its contours are there for all to see. With a corridor over Pakistan (through PoK), Iran and Turkey, China comes all the way to the doorstep of Europe. That is the benefit that China enjoys when China remains in control of PoK. It can project power far and wide without stepping on Russia's feet (CARs). When it can show that it can project power, others who have a grudge with Israel and West, even allies like Turkey, would also change sides and follow.

The fact that PoK is under control of Pakistan-China Axis, means not just problems for India, but it also means that the strategic space and sway of NATO gets hurt, and where partners like Turkey had earlier few choices are all of a sudden being able to hold joint aerial exercises with America's strategic rival - PRC.

If USA and EU want Turkey to remain a part of the NATO alliance, they would have to ensure that PoK is sealed for China, so that there is no Chinese power projection beyond East Turkestan/Xinjiang. PoK must return to India.

[Lalmohan]

^^^ just as china can snoop on nato, nato can snoop on china... so not sure about this... maybe unkil is trying to kill 2 birds with 1 stone?

[brihaspati]

naren ji,
maybe we should not highlight or draw attention to such potentialities. Our strengths should be hidden unless we do not want to really use them and just use as a threat factor.

[RajeshA]

^^^ just as china can snoop on nato, nato can snoop on china... so not sure about this... maybe unkil is trying to kill 2 birds with 1 stone?

Two clues that it is not a set up by the Americans:

1. Turkey-Israel break up is very real. Turkish efforts to break the Gaza sea blockade was an anti-Israel action. The death of 9 Turks on board the Turkish flotilla during the Israeli raid on it is also very much real. The anger in Turkey, where nationalism is very much alive, on that score, is very much real.
2. Iran allowed the use of its airspace for the exercise.

May be it was bound to happen, but the Israeli raid on the Turkish flotilla was the butterfly flapping its wings!

[RajeshA]

Published on Oct 07, 2010
By Nitin Gokhale
How India is undoing China's string of pearls: Rediff

Both India and Vietnam, who have long-pending territorial disputes with China thus decided to unite against their common adversary. Located on the edges of South-East Asia, Vietnam is ideally placed to prevent China's expansion into the South China Sea.

So, for over a decade now, India has been providing Vietnam with assistance in beefing up its naval and air capabilities in an attempt to deny China total supremacy in the South China Sea.

Both New Delhi and Hanoi traditionally sourced majority of their military hardware from the erstwhile Soviet Union. That commonality has meant that both can share expertise and resources available with their respective armed forces in terms of handling and maintaining the Soviet-era weaponry.

India, for instance, has repaired and upgraded over 100 MiG 21 planes of the Vietnamese Air Force and supplied them with enhanced avionics and radar systems. Indian Air Force pilots have also been training their Vietnamese counterparts.

The Indian Navy, by far larger than the Vietnamese navy, has been supplying critical spares to Hanoi for its Russian origin ships and missile boats.

After Antony's 2007 visit to Vietnam, the Indian and Vietnamese coast guards have engaged in joint patrols, and both navies participated in a joint exercise in 2007.

[RajeshA]

Published on October 7th, 2010
By Srinath Raghavan
A yen for Japan: Deccan Chronicle

Last year, India and Japan concluded agreements for an ambitious $77 billion Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor project. The corridor spanning six states is projected as a global manufacturing and trading hub — one that will foster closer economic and commercial relations between the two countries. Other areas of emerging cooperation include renewable energy and ecologically sustainable urban spaces.
The state of the two economies — one a massive economy in prolonged stagnation with an ageing workforce, and the other a swiftly growing economy with a projected youth “bulge” — is propelling much of this forward. But the wider political and strategic context needs to be noted as well. Indeed, the relationship with Japan highlights the tightening nexus between India’s economic and foreign policies.

[Pulikeshi]

Published on Oct 07, 2010
By Nitin Gokhale
How India is undoing China's string of pearls: Rediff

Dated, but some quick points:

1. In order to 'undo' China’s String of Pearls Strategy one must first clearly understand what that strategy is...
If you draw some curves connecting Vietnam, Singapore, Andaman all the way to Oman
then you know where the Indian version of the curve runs...
Still what does this achieve or not achieve?

2. How does the Kra Canal play into all this? What impact will that have on Singapore for example?
What have India and US done about it?

[RajeshA]

2. How does the Kra Canal play into all this? What impact will that have on Singapore for example?
What have India and US done about it?

I think India should become a major partner in the Kra Canal. If we cannot change it, we should join it. It need not be seen only from the security PoV, but rather also to give some relief to the Malacca Straits.

In fact India should develop the whole maritime circuit Kra Channel, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Aceh and Malacca Straits. We can give an added focus on tourism in the region. The whole point is to have our finger in every pie.

Let's not forget that if India goes ahead to build a military alliance in Asia - the Asian Security Alliance between Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia, Singapore and Indonesia, India needs to be able to deploy our navy into the South China Sea at short notice. In such a case the Kra Channel could come in useful.

It would be best if this remains a project between India, Thailand, since we are the 3 countries in the neighborhood of the Kra Channel. We should be keeping China out of this region. In fact India and Thailand should be jointly managing the Channel, India perhaps on the basis of being a financial and technical partner.

May be all the rock and soil taken out for the Channel, can be used by India to reclaim much more of land from the sea in that area.

[shiv]

2. How does the Kra Canal play into all this? What impact will that have on Singapore for example?
What have India and US done about it?

Pulikeshi - I made two posts about this earlier in the thread (19 sept). With a map.

Here they are

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 16#p943416
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 21#p943421

[RajeshA]

The Kra Channel should become a part of India's forward strategy for stationing our forces East of the Kra Isthmus.

Let's not forget that even though we have 'excellent' relations with Malaysia and Indonesia, one never knows how the strategic alliances in Asia would pan out. It is possible that China and the Muslim countries in Asia form some sort of military alliance, and India is not allowed to pass through the Malacca Straits.

It would be better to have a route to South China Sea which does not make India dependent on the Muslim countries.

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Published on Oct 08, 2010
By Mohan Malik
Beijing playing its Kashmir card: Asia Times Online

Amid the current unrest in the valley, Beijing has also invited Kashmiri separatist leaders for talks and offered itself as a mediator, ostensibly in a tit-for-tat for India's refuge for the Dalai Lama. Yet China is actually the third party to the dispute in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). While India holds about 45% of J&K territory and Pakistan controls 35%, China occupies about 20% (including Aksai Chin and the Shaksgam Valley, ceded by Pakistan to China in 1963).

The denial of a visa in July 2010 to the Indian Army's Northern Commander, General B S Jaswal – who was to lead the fourth bilateral defense dialogue in Beijing – because he commanded "a disputed area, Jammu and Kashmir", was said to be the last straw.

Consequently, a new chill has descended on Sino-Indian relations. India retaliated by suspending defense exchanges with China and lodging a formal protest. New Delhi sees these moves as part of a new Chinese strategy with respect to Kashmir that seeks to nix its global ambitions and entangle India to prevent it from playing a role beyond the region. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Indian media: "Beijing could be tempted to use India's 'soft underbelly', Kashmir, and Pakistan to keep India in 'low-level equilibrium'."

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from India - The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR Thread

Published on Oct 05, 2010
By Naveen Kapoor (ANI)
Krishna likely to open strategic Jaffna, Hambantota consulates in Oct end: ANI

New Delhi, Oct. 5 (ANI): External Affairs Minister S M Krishna is likely to inaugurate two Indian consulates in Hambantota and Jaffna during his four-day visit to Sri Lanka in the last week of October.

The opening of the consulate office in Hambantota is significant in the wake of the Chinese having already established a strategic presence there through the construction of a harbour. The proposed Indian consulate will cover activities in the districts of Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Moneragala.

India has maintained that the Chinese-aided Hambantota project, which opens in November, does not pose any security threat. However, there are concerns in New Delhi over the rising Chinese influence in Sri Lanka.

India has only one consulate in Kandy and the opening of consulates in Jaffna and Hambantotta is an attempt to reach out and spread its sphere of influence to counterweigh China, according to analysts.

Sections of India's strategic community believes Hambantota is part of a Chinese policy to throw a "string of pearls" geographical circle of influence around India and is aimed at counterbalancing and undermining India's natural influence in Sri Lanka.

The port project, which will give alternate access to Chinese goods through the Indian Ocean, was earlier offered to India according to Lankan officials.

China is also developing port facilities in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan, and has plans for constructing railway projects in Nepal.

China is pumping nearly six billion dollars in the form of grants and funding of projects in Sri Lanka.

To check Beijing's rising influence, New Delhi has also accelerated its aid programme and has offered concessionary credit facilities amounting to about 800 million dollars for the railway projects in Sri Lanka.

The proposed consulate in Jaffna will cover the five districts of the war-ravaged northern province - Jaffna, Killinochchi, Mullaithivu, Vavuniya and Mannar.

The consulate will help rehabilitate and streamline the humanitarian assistance to the displaced Tamils.

India had pledged to build 50,000 houses in the northern and eastern provinces, the Jaffna Cultural Center, the Jaffna Teaching Hospital and the Duraiappah Stadium.

During his expected visit, Krishna will reportedly review progress of Indian-aided projects and is likely to reassure New Delhi's commitment to rebuilding infrastructure in the war-ravaged nation.

He is also expected to call on Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

[TonyMontana]

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Indian media: "Beijing could be tempted to use India's 'soft underbelly', Kashmir, and Pakistan to keep India in 'low-level equilibrium'."

Frankly I don't find what China is doing to India as repugnant as India's lack of negotiating will to take a similar stance with China.

India's biggest hurdle to cross if you want to counter China is your own political estabilishment.

The Indian actions in this saga can be summeried in one word. Responsive. And not in the good sense.

China dictates the pace and India are only responding. Some posters are happy that the Chinese provications are "waking up" India. Is it really? And why does India need China to wake up? The mountain strike corps etc are a minimal level deterance. What does it say about your leaders?

Let's have a look at the border incursions. It's a classic applications of 無中生有, creating nothing from something.

The Jingoes are taking the bait of the PLA and would love to make the "probing" and incursions a big deal. You have to ask yourself, why is China doing this? By creating this situation for "free", it can used later in a bid to 拋磚引玉. Throwing out a brick to get a jade back. What trade concession would a Indian PM make to the Chinese to be the PM that settled the Sino-Indian border? Jingoes on BRF might not. But I can't say the same for your politicians.

What the Chinese are doing are like what the Americans are doing. A blind devotion to further their own national interests. Not all of what we're doing works. But you can't blame China for trying. The USA created the Taliban and Bin Laden that bite them in the ass. I can't say that it wouldn't happen to China in the form of Pakistan. But that don't mean the policy of forwarding your national interests anyway you can is a bad policy. It just mean one more problem to solve.

So all the talks of alliance, and strategy is useless if India are always responding. It's moot if your political establishment lacks the will.

India is growing inspite of your government, not because of it.

[Pulikeshi]

What the Chinese are doing are like what the Americans are doing.

So all the talks of alliance, and strategy is useless if India are always responding. It's moot if your political establishment lacks the will.

India is growing inspite of your government, not because of it.

Thankfully it is evident that GOI does not listens to folks blabbering on the internet

Can you help us understand what the Chinese are doing? I for one do not know what they are!
How is allying with a bunch of dictatorships and encouraging rogue behavior in Asia helping them?

So, America is an uncontested regional power of the Atlantic and the Pacific.
How have any of the Chinese actions according to you allowed them to become a regional power?
Given the geo-political region of Asia - can a regional power emerge that controls two or more oceans?
If so, how?

[svinayak]

China dictates the pace and India are only responding. Some posters are happy that the Chinese provications are "waking up" India. Is it really? And why does India need China to wake up? The mountain strike corps etc are a minimal level deterance. What does it say about your leaders?

Do you want to work for India.

[brihaspati]

TonyMontana wrote
India's biggest hurdle to cross if you want to counter China is your own political estabilishment.

The Indian actions in this saga can be summeried in one word. Responsive. And not in the good sense.

China dictates the pace and India are only responding. Some posters are happy that the Chinese provications are "waking up" India. Is it really? And why does India need China to wake up? The mountain strike corps etc are a minimal level deterance. What does it say about your leaders?

Let's have a look at the border incursions. It's a classic applications of 無中生有, creating nothing from something.

The Jingoes are taking the bait of the PLA and would love to make the "probing" and incursions a big deal. You have to ask yourself, why is China doing this? By creating this situation for "free", it can used later in a bid to 拋磚引玉. Throwing out a brick to get a jade back. What trade concession would a Indian PM make to the Chinese to be the PM that settled the Sino-Indian border? Jingoes on BRF might not. But I can't say the same for your politicians.

Ah - this is interesting! So you have already made your assessments of all future Indian PM's? What if PM's are only figureheads - unlike the dictatorship that China is now! You never know - may be there is a huge secretive cabal that is simply using China as required excuses to take steps otherwise difficult to take in democratic setups. After all it is a wily Chanakya quoting nation! Actually there are other characters too you might have missed out - like say Sakuni in Mahabharata. This guy pretended to be the well-wisher of his nephews - the Kuru branch in power - and ultimately systematically destroyed his nephews. There are many well-wishers of China from India - so-called strategic experts, or perhaps even players on the political field - who for all you know could be Sakuni's! Do the PLA or CPC really know their Indian "pawns"?

The next 30 years are going to be most interesting!

[TonyMontana]

Can you help us understand what the Chinese are doing? I for one do not know what they are!
How is allying with a bunch of dictatorships and encouraging rogue behavior in Asia helping them?

借刀殺人 - Kill with a borrowed knife.
Always nice to have someone do the dirty work when needed.

隔岸觀火 - Watch the fires burning across the river.
While you're sorting out problems. China is building strength.

趁火打劫 - Loot a burning house.
Crisis create opportunities. Generating crisis, can be used to generate leverage.

But I dare say that China is engaging these countries for the simple fact that no one else is.

Influence is like money. You can always do with more, and it's always nice to have then not.

So, America is an uncontested regional power of the Atlantic and the Pacific.
How have any of the Chinese actions according to you allowed them to become a regional power?

There's no magic bullet that can do that. Everything adds up. What the Chinese do might not even be smart. But it's the fact that we try that matters. One of these days we'll get it right. You got to be in, to win.

Given the geo-political region of Asia - can a regional power emerge that controls two or more oceans?
If so, how?

Most likely not. But it helps to have influence.

Do you want to work for India.

How much is India paying?

Ah - this is interesting! So you have already made your assessments of all future Indian PM's?

Assessment using limited information gained from observation of previous behaviour. My 2 RMB only.

[svinayak]

Do you want to work for India.

How much is India paying?

Volunteer work. Social Entrepreneurship

[AKalam]

Conflict resolution with force of arms is not smart in the long run, it reduces the credibility of a nation, but one probably cannot blame the Han Chinese nation, because they are led by a non-representative CPC.

But finding opening where others don't see one or want to see one before it is way too late, is a smart move.

Turkey rebuffed by EU and pursuing a more independent course, like sailing listless in the wide ocean was an opportunity for PRC. It seems interesting that PRC has now completed its overtures to the last 3 Muslim empires or their successor states (or pseudo successor states) - Mughal, Iran and Ottoman. Since being a Muslim is a crime in this world today, one by one, they seem to be drawn to the one that will provide them a life line.

While we Indic Bangladeshi's watch the war of the Titan's, we want to steer clear of these conflicts and trade and connect with everyone ensuring no military or covert usage of our land and that includes the West, PRC, India and everyone else. Because we are poor and we need to survive in this cold unforgiving world and cannot afford to be taking sides. We will be happy weaving and stitching clothes, making shoes for the rich and sweeping the streets of Mecca.

[naren]

India's biggest hurdle to cross if you want to counter China is your own political estabilishment.

The Indian actions in this saga can be summeried in one word. Responsive. And not in the good sense.

China dictates the pace and India are only responding. Some posters are happy that the Chinese provications are "waking up" India. Is it really? And why does India need China to wake up? The mountain strike corps etc are a minimal level deterance. What does it say about your leaders?

When China gets mad, one sad-smiley sticker goes on India's file. When China gets super mad, India gets TWO sad-smiley stickers. It is the classic application of Hung Tzu strategy. Yawn.

China pulls off "well planned spectacular" ops - like the one in 1962 - 80,000 troops vs India's 12,000; element of surprise; yet couldnt hold onto that tiny hill town Tawang. Today, India is a nookular power - A direct consequence of China's "well planned" war.

India is reactive - ofcourse. Its been that way for a long long time. Its simply not in India's civilizational psyche to enslave anybody. As a consequence, we are reactive. But it didn't stop India from doing what it did to Bakistan in 1971.

We just need more Chinese "well wishers" coming here and screaming in our face about our incapable leadership. Thanks for that TM. It will give good pointers to our already hyper media and good opportunity to more jingoistic leadership to come to power. Its history repeating all over again. JLN and his Gandhian fairy tale was mocked & humiliated. Then came the change in leadership. IG rubbed it in the face of all India's enemies. There's a saying in Tamil - "Sadhu mirandaal kaadu kollaadhu" - when the Sadhu gets angry, even the entire forest couldn't contain.

Let's have a look at the border incursions. It's a classic applications of 無中生有, creating nothing from something.

The Jingoes are taking the bait of the PLA and would love to make the "probing" and incursions a big deal. You have to ask yourself, why is China doing this? By creating this situation for "free", it can used later in a bid to 拋磚引玉. Throwing out a brick to get a jade back. What trade concession would a Indian PM make to the Chinese to be the PM that settled the Sino-Indian border? Jingoes on BRF might not. But I can't say the same for your politicians.

Is China baiting India, or being baited by some third party ? China has only lost tactical edge by all these probing. It works against the "element of surprise" strategy. As for the PM who settled the dispute, do you even know how democracy works ? You said reactive and then imply proactive ! Democracies love status quo. So dont expect any Indian PM to walk the extra mile.

What the Chinese are doing are like what the Americans are doing. A blind devotion to further their own national interests. Not all of what we're doing works. But you can't blame China for trying. The USA created the Taliban and Bin Laden that bite them in the ass. I can't say that it wouldn't happen to China in the form of Pakistan. But that don't mean the policy of forwarding your national interests anyway you can is a bad policy. It just mean one more problem to solve.

Oh our knight in shining armour, how kind are thou ! All the more reasons for India to eff-see-you-kay with Taiwan.

[naren]

naren ji,
maybe we should not highlight or draw attention to such potentialities. Our strengths should be hidden unless we do not want to really use them and just use as a threat factor.

operation shock and awe onree

[TonyMontana]

When China gets mad, one sad-smiley sticker goes on India's file. When China gets super mad, India gets TWO sad-smiley stickers. It is the classic application of Hung Tzu strategy. Yawn.

China pulls off "well planned spectacular" ops - like the one in 1962 - 80,000 troops vs India's 12,000; element of surprise; yet couldnt hold onto that tiny hill town Tawang. Today, India is a nookular power - A direct consequence of China's "well planned" war.

India is reactive - ofcourse. Its been that way for a long long time. Its simply not in India's civilizational psyche to enslave anybody. As a consequence, we are reactive. But it didn't stop India from doing what it did to Bakistan in 1971.

We just need more Chinese "well wishers" coming here and screaming in our face about our incapable leadership. Thanks for that TM. It will give good pointers to our already hyper media and good opportunity to more jingoistic leadership to come to power. Its history repeating all over again. JLN and his Gandhian fairy tale was mocked & humiliated. Then came the change in leadership. IG rubbed it in the face of all India's enemies. There's a saying in Tamil - "Sadhu mirandaal kaadu kollaadhu" - when the Sadhu gets angry, even the entire forest couldn't contain.

Let me answer you with a joke. Two guys walking in the forest runs into a Tiger. The first guy bends down and start tieing his shoes. The second guy says: "What? You gonna out run a tiger?" First guy says, "No. I just have to out run you."

Is China baiting India, or being baited by some third party ? China has only lost tactical edge by all these probing. It works against the "element of surprise" strategy. As for the PM who settled the dispute, do you even know how democracy works ? You said reactive and then imply proactive ! Democracies love status quo. So dont expect any Indian PM to walk the extra mile.

Not everything has to have "element of surprise". The PM don't have to walk the extra mile. Indeed, it's not up to the PM to walk in the first place. China will offer settling borders as a incentive. A incentive we invented. That's the strategy.

Oh our knight in shining armour, how kind are thou ! All the more reasons for India to eff-see-you-kay with Taiwan.

I'll believe India **** with Taiwan when I see it. My professional opinion is that it will not happen in the near future. Without a leadership with the will to act, you might as well be talking about orbital defence lazers.

[shiv]

The Chinese are also reactive. Yesterday a Chinese woman was molested by a taxi driver in Delhi. She made a big hue and cry and complained to the police. How stupid. She could have molested him before he did no?

When you have a series of events that are happening and you choose an arbitrary point in time to say "Things started here" - then you can claim that X reacted to Y by ignoring what happened before that. I am choosing this time to say all this because Tony Montana has actually bought and internalized a special BRF caterwaul - "India is reactive". I have not looked at his post count but he is a ture BRFite today in my eyes.

Let me give a Pakistan related example of what is or what is not reactive:

• In 1965 Pakistan's Ayub Khan initiated Operation Gibraltar (sending saboteurs and infiltrators into Kashmir)
  India reacted by arresting them
  Pakistan reacted by atatcking - "Operation Grand slam"
  India reacted by opening a front in Punjab

But if you go to a time before 1965 - you find that in 1947 Hari Singh of Kashmir asked for a "holding agreement" between India, Pakistan and Kashmir while he decided about accession.

Pakistan reacted by attacking Kashmir

Hari Singh reacted by asking for Indian help

India reacted by offering help in exchange for accession to India. Was this a pro active step or a reactive one?

When you look at how the Nizam's territories and Goa became parts of India are you talking "reaction"? They were reactive to an earlier occupation by foreign forces.

Ultimately India reacts to occupation/aggression by foreign forces. India's angst is the lack of an Indian will or need to occupy foreign lands. Indians are too happy with India to want to go to colder or drier places. India is a warm, moist and welcoming country that too many people love. You don't even need clothes. Trees provide shelter. Crops grow twice a year.

If you look at Pakistan - life exists only in one strip along the Indus river as long as the river does not want to drown the morons. China? Only the south east is anywhere near warm and moist like India. And most of that area is occupied by non Han barbarians like Vietnamese, Thai etc. 20% of China is occupied Tibet which is hostile mountains. Half of the rest of China is desert. No wonder these guys are constantly hankering after someone else's land. But they are reacting to their own deficiencies. Like the man who wants to sleep with his neighbor's wife because his wife always has a headache. It is India's karma to be an attractive land that others covet. We have to be reactive. If someone is trying to make a pass at your wife do you protect her, or do you make a pass at some other woman and then pat yourself on the back and say "Oh I am so pro active"?

[shiv]

China will offer settling borders as a incentive. A incentive we invented. That's the strategy.

Tony Montana ji - you are on a gallop here. Please hold your horses and think.

You say "China will offer settling borders as an incentive" and then you proceed to pat the chinese on the back with a word of self praise "That's strategy" you say.

Please stop to think for a minute. China has already offered the incentive to India. China offered India the incentive in 1962. Maybe you were not born or too young then. Your respected ancestors whose memory must not be sullied invented this praiseworthy strategy in 1962. They "offered" to India the choice. "Give us your territory or we will grab it". Indeed that is strategy - but I guess you understand where you are mistaken. The strategy is not for the future. It has already been implemented. And it has not worked for China in 58 years. And you are saying that this is a future strategy that China "will offer" ? Has history teaching in China become as bad as it is in India? You need to do better than that.

This brilliant strategy is like a man fondling the breasts of another man's wife and then saying "I will now stop doing that if you agree to give her to me". I am not sure if this sort of story passes off as an example of great humor or great wisdom in China. It won't do in India though.

The Chinese are so full of one sided strategies that they have failed to see how democracies work. India will consider China's offer and take permission from every single Indian and spend 200 years keeping the issue neither dead nor alive while the Chinese dance thinking they have India caught in a dilemma.

Don't fool yourself. Modern communist China is only a few decades old. Modern India too is about the same age. You are talking of short term political strategies and reactions of the current leaders of two civilizations that have seen thousands of such leaders come and go. All this "strategy-shrategy" stuff looks good on paper but all it will get you is short term entertainment.

[naren]

This what I understand from Tony ji's strategy:

China will provoke India in the border. As a result India will excessively spend on military. Economy will plunge. China has also brilliantly engineered a scheme where by there is huge trade imbalance, favourable to China. So India has no choice but to play by China's rules. As an incentive, India will get a piece of the Chinese pie. Border problems will be settled - favourable to China.

The problems with this "grand strategy":

* There is no correlation between military spending and GDP growth as far as India is concerned. May be its different for China where the state is the economy generator. Not applicable to India.

I generated this report from world bank:



* The assumption is that India will spend excessively on the border. Doesnt China have to make corresponding spending ? Point in case, the new railway lines in Tibet. Big hole in that logic. So China will have to incur costs to match the forces. Or is China so TFTA that they can afford to see million men amassing in their border and do nothing at all ?

* Even if the so-called master plan all goes well, the result is India will have modern equipment, larger army, peaceful border - they can be redeployed to crush Maoists and establish control over those areas. Result, India will have a bigger tax base, thus helping the economy. Not to mention the guaranteed peace for may be the next 50 years.

* The "plan" is next to impossible to pull off - too many industries/political/media careers would have been built based on the border-jingoism. They aint going down without a fight. Thats why I said "democracies love status quo". Very stupid to think that a commie living in his high throne in Beijing is going to get things done in India by dealing with the bureaucracy.

Summary: Yes, please go ahead with that plan - we love it !
--

Shiv ji, your sense of humour is totally awesome !!!

[shiv]

India is growing inspite of your government, not because of it.

While we are on the subject of old and well worn jokes on this forum, I am reminded of one

A Chinese communist and an American were arguing about the superiority of their systems.

The American boasted "I have the right to criticize my government and not be punished for it"
The Chinese retorted "So what? I can criticise your government too and not get punished for it"

Life imitates fiction?

[TonyMontana]

Good input guys. I never claimed to know everything. I will reassess my conclusions based on your inputs.

[shiv]

But I dare say that China is engaging these countries for the simple fact that no one else is.

I'm sure that makes you proud.

When I was in college there was this short guy nicknamed "Elli Vichu" where "elli" means rat. The guy looked and behaved like a rat. One year there was this great intercollegiate festival where we randy young men were slobbering after all the chicks from other colleges. None of us made much headway but within a day Elli Vichu was walking around with a woman. OK she wasn't exactly a beauty queen - nobody had even given her a second glance - but there it was - Elli Vichu had a woman - something that none of us could boast about.

So we asked him how he managed that, and he said "Machaan. You fellows are all fools. You run after the best looking women. I just searched for someone whom no one was looking at and now look - I have a girlfriend"

Yes, like elli Vichu China has North Korea for an ally.

[naren]

^^^

Ah... what practical application of John Nash's game theory !!!

[TonyMontana]

I'm sure that makes you proud.

Yes, like elli Vichu China has North Korea for an ally.

LOL. No it doesn't make me proud. But international politics are not like a school yard popularity contest. The USA supported any anti-soviet resistence, no question asked, back in the day. China is picking up what ever leverage we can get. Would you rather have North Korea and Pakistan in your camp or in your enemy's camp? We would love to have the Americans as allies. But alas, we're competitors. If you think about it, not many countries are not competitors with China. So by definition, we wouldn't get much real friends.

Think of them as the street toughs in the Mafia. I'm sure the Don don't like to hang out with these punks, but they have their uses.

[Karna_A]

I'm sure that makes you proud.

Yes, like elli Vichu China has North Korea for an ally.

LOL. No it doesn't make me proud. But international politics are not like a school yard popularity contest. The USA supported any anti-soviet resistence, no question asked, back in the day. China is picking up what ever leverage we can get. Would you rather have North Korea and Pakistan in your camp or in your enemy's camp? We would love to have the Americans as allies. But alas, we're competitors. If you think about it, not many countries are not competitors with China. So by definition, we wouldn't get much real friends.

Think of them as the street toughs in the Mafia. I'm sure the Don don't like to hang out with these punks, but they have their uses.

The jist of your argument is just as Taliban is TSP's bitch, TSP is China's bitch.
Its a very well thought of short term, short sighted solution, which so far has worked.

But just as Taliban has turned against TSP, its a matter of time before TSP turns against China.
The more real possibility is TSP just gives up in next 2 decades and becomes an Indian protectorate, so thanks for supplying all the nooks and missiles to TSP.

[Bade]

One may think that in the near future, when TSP becomes another state of the Indian Union in parts or as whole, we get to lay our hands on the Chinese tech, but all these bums are not their best of nukes, these are just radiation devices to cause more nuisance value than earth-shatterers. So nothing to gain and it is time to call the Pakjabi bluff from China with love.

[TonyMontana]

But just as Taliban has turned against TSP, its a matter of time before TSP turns against China.
The more real possibility is TSP just gives up in next 2 decades and becomes an Indian protectorate, so thanks for supplying all the nooks and missiles to TSP.

Right after China collapses economically right? Maybe just before China breaks into 7 different warring regions. Of cause this is years after a resurgence of Indian culture in the Chinese mainstream.