People's Republic of China Nov 22, 2009

[brihaspati]

why are they in Pakistan?

*Tags in*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_and_ ... l_overview

India's first nuclear test occurred on 18 May 1974.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_a ... estruction

Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Program was established in 1974...

India raised. China called.

The Pakistani nuke is a reaction to Indian nukes.

Sure - I expected better from the legendary Communist Agitrop! I know why gradually the intellectual quality of communist leadership goes down over the life of the party - but that is another issue! See what comes when you hate "Google" or touch it with disdain!

http://www.iiss.org/publications/strate ... -imports-/

"Historical overview of nuclear programme
Origins
A.Q. Khan can be accorded many epithets, including ‘founder of Pakistan’s uranium-
enrichment programme’. However, it is not appropriate to call him, as many do, the ‘father of Pakistan’s bomb’. Two of his countrymen can rightfully claim that title: on the political side, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, minister of mineral resources (1958–62), foreign minister (1963–66), president (1971–73) and prime minister (1973–77); and on the technical side, Munir Ahmad Khan, a US-trained scientist who was the chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) from 1972 to 1991. Ironically, M.A. Khan directed the Pakistani bomb project between two positions at the IAEA: first between 1957 and 1972 as a staff member; then as a member of the Board of Governors, and even serving as IAEA Board chairman from 1986 to 1987.

PAEC, which traces its origin to 1954, was founded to promote peaceful uses of atomic energy, inspired and assisted by the US ‘Atoms for Peace’ programme. It was under Z.A. Bhutto’s leadership as minister of mineral resources that PAEC set up the Pakistani Institute of Nuclear Sciences and Technology (PINSTECH) in 1960 and sent hundreds of students abroad to obtain degrees in physics and other nuclear-related science disciplines. The first civilian research reactor, PARR-1, in Rawalpindi, became operational in 1965. By that time, since becoming foreign minister in 1963, Z.A. Bhutto had already begun lobbying in earnest to harness nuclear technology for weapons purposes. After the Chinese nuclear test in 1964, he concluded that India would go nuclear and that Pakistan would have to follow suit. He famously declared in a newspaper interview in 1965 that if India developed nuclear weapons, ‘Pakistan will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry’ in order to develop a programme of its own. When named president and chief martial law administrator in December 1971, in the aftermath of a traumatic military defeat by India, one of Z.A. Bhutto’s first priorities was to launch a military nuclear programme. He convened a meeting of several dozen scientists and officials in Multan in January 1972 and asked them to produce a nuclear bomb within five years, putting M.A. Khan in charge of PAEC. On a separate track, Pakistan’s first nuclear power plant, KANUPP (Karachi Nuclear Power Plant, a natural uranium reactor supplied by Canada) went critical in 1971 and was inaugurated by M.A. Khan in 1972.

In March 1974, PAEC set up a group tasked with developing a nuclear device. The programme was simply called ‘Research’ and the team was known as the ‘Wah group’, after the city where it was working, where the Pakistan Ordnance Factories are located. After India’s test on 18 May 1974 of what it called a ‘peaceful nuclear device’, a cabinet meeting the following month confirmed the official launch of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme, which was until then a ‘hedging’ option."

In spite of the compulsion to protect the pet female dog who barks according to the prodding of the master - the article is forced to concede that the Paki rulers had decided long before any Indian "test" to go for nuclear weapons. It was simply a matter of not having sufficient resources. Moreover, it seems it was China's "testing" that triggered Paki race - by calculation that India would feel forced to develop nukes to counter the Chinese test and threat!

[naren]

why are they in Pakistan?

*Tags in*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_and_ ... l_overview

India's first nuclear test occurred on 18 May 1974.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_a ... estruction

Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Program was established in 1974...

India raised. China called.

The Pakistani nuke is a reaction to Indian nukes.

India raised to Pakistan. China is nowhere in the picture and should have never called. Now that China has, India has the legitimacy-by-precedence to nuke-arm (aka "call") China's rivals. My favourite would be Taiwan. If the present govt lacks the political will to do that, as often ridiculed by Chinese posters here, then I will express my democratic voice in the next election.

Jai Hind.

[shiv]

The Pakistani nuke is a reaction to Indian nukes.

Absolutely no doubt, just like a pregnant womb is a reaction to the intercourse that the woman bearing the child had with some customer.

Now why did China provide Pakistan with nukes? Because of China's insecurity about India.

And why was China insecure about India? I have no answer to that yet- but let me move on.

Why did the pompous and sanctimonious west which is normally so full of itself and its achievements, a west that has sought to hold China down allow Pakistan to acquire nukes when the same West has vehemently opposed the acquisition of nukes by anyone else? Because the west (the USA) was insecure about the Soviet Union. It was feared that the USSR might spoil the party for western democracies. Pakistan was a client state and the west needed an alliance with China. That is how the China-USA entente started.

Why did China, an overpopulated, decrepit, highly militarized and regimented low-tech country led by a genocidal communist regime want the friendship of the USA? Self interest. For China everyone was a threat. (Talk about insecurity). The USSR was a threat. Japan wasa threat. Taiwan was a threat. India was a threat. It made eminent sense for China to befriend the US at the expense of the USSR and its "sidekick" India.

Both the US and China had and still have a common interest in Pakistan. That is how Pakistan got nuclear weapons.

For India - a nation that faces a direct nuclear threat from Pakistan and China (and indirectly from the US) two of its three goals have been achieved. India has managed to see off Pakistan - which is now a failing state. And that Pakistan is now spreading jihad to the US so the US is now getting a feel for what India went through.

The only thing that remains for India is to ensure that loose nuclear weapons from Pakistan enter Xinjiang in the hands of Uighurs, or Tibet in the hands of dissidents. That is something to look forward to in future. If a nuke goes off in China - you can thank your "Taller than the tallest mountains and deeper than the deepest ocean" friends, Pakistan Of course I know China will not bother about a million dead. China has a lot of spare people. But we live in interesting times.

[shiv]

The Uighurs of course need nuclear weapons like nobody else on earth. Since they are well connected with Pakistan with a good road link to Kashgar - soon to be a railway link, I am sure their Muslim brothers can give them a few nukes "Made in China" of course.

Check the Han love for the Uighurs - who are good innocent Muslims
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 86#p973686

[brihaspati]

quote="brihaspati"
Here there is no talk of China "suffering" any "consequences" - you are extremely eager to try and make us scared of consequences on Indians. How else will India suffer nuclear war unless China joins Pak in unleashing nukes targeting Indian population concentrations? The standard emotional blackmailing that is used by those Indians eager to lick Chinese or Paki boots and western "sympathisers" of your country and its lackeys - to try and isolate Indian voices which urge India to build capabilities to neutralize such hostile threats. This helps to lull "rational" suspicions and needle political sentiments so that India leaves itself vulnerable to such nuclear blackmailing.
--------------------

brihaspati-ji. I think there is a disconnect between my words as intended and your understanding of it. Please allow me to elabrate.

When you suggested that India should do nuclear evacuation drills, my understanding is that India is prepared for a nuclear exchange. This means that India is willing to esculate any tension to the point of nuclear exchange. My position on nuclear warfare has been consistent. It is unimaginable.

What you suggest, is the same as a total missile defense system in the US. Can you not say having a functional missile shield would signal to the USSR that the US is willing to risk a nuclear war? The whole concept of MAD, falls back on the fact that we'll both die. If you prepare yourselve to the point that you will not die, but only wounded, it defeats the purpose of MAD.

This might not be the most articulate way to express my idea. I hope more learned posters could elbrate what I'm trying to say, if there is still confusion.

So the only way to prevent further nuclear proliferation by China is for Indians not to prepare to save themselves? Any defensive measures that India takes is a further threat to China? No wonder you find others irrational! Have you ever applied that same logic to your beloved party and army? The same logic applied to your side should imply that China should stop proliferating nukes into the hands of India's enemies, stop militarizing the neighbourhood of India, stop making threats against Indian sovereignty, stop building defensive and attack formations as close as possible to Indian borders - since very such move that China continues to make - makes India think that China is preparing to save itself - which implies that China is preparing to nuke India.

quote="brihaspati"
So your promise to "stabilize" Pak on behalf of your party and "king" of your "middle kingdom" - exactly translates to promising to nuke India as and when Pak overdoes its sadism on India and India then come under pressure from its own people to retaliate.
unquote

That's pretty big leap of logic there. I'm not even gonna dignifiy it with an explaination. I think the fallacy is self-evident.

quote="brihaspati"
Time and again you have clearly stated that you will support and join in any moves that PRC makes on India however unpleasant that may appear. This is no strawman argument - since your own statement implies that you will not hesitate to support or join in nuclear decimation of Indian populations either.
quote

But what if the CCP attacks the moon? What if they invent a zombie virus? OMG, I want to destroy all humanity! Stop creating these scenarios that is only rational in your head. This is the definition of a strawman argument.

quote="brihaspati"
It is your own desire that China does a hot-war on India because that is in the "interests" of China - but you want to try your best to raise the fears of nuclear fallout on Indians so they do not build up capacity to retaliate - as if by submitting and waiting patiently in the hope that PRC will not nuke India, India will escape your "stabilizing Pak" programme! unquote

We need a strawman emoticon.

Let us see what you actually wrote:

TonyMontana
Post subject: Re: People's Republic of China Nov 22, 2009
PostPosted: 29 Oct 2010 03:37 am

Do you want to know the real tragedy? I, as a Chinese, must defend against any threat against China. And I dare say that's the view of most Chinese. India's rise and/or her reactions to the CCP's action are contrary to Chinese interests. So it is my duty to work against India. Like the earlier example of German/French soldiers in the trenchs. We could've been the bestest friends. But alas, we stare at each other across no man's land. And when the order comes, we have to do our best to try to stick a bayonet in your gut. As you will to us. So where does that leave us? A vicious cycle of young men dying for the mistake of old men.

But that's the human story isn't it?

So none of your "friendliness" by your own acknowledgment will prevent you from joining in a CPC move that decides to nuke India. Where do you fail to see the logic? Maybe you have been too long in the "party" and hence logical capacity has gone down?

[shiv]

East Turkestan was once a proud and independent nation until Chinese brutality wiped it out

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5u2lGjH7_4

[TonyMontana]

Well good to know that there is another blind supporter of China supporting Pak knowing fully well that the sole reason for existence and the sole national purpose of Pak is to cause bloodshed of Indians. Which means you acknowledge that China is a supporter of terrorism and is prepared to protect with nuclear weaponry and threat of using it against India to protect this terrorism.

The Chinese way was "Are you a Muslim? Take that, Blam! Blam!" This method is, after all, how the "West" was won in the US from Red Indians. And China did the same thing. No wonder China is now challenging the US. No?

I tell ya we Indians know nothing about making this world ours as we sit in our dhotis worshipping yon hill and vale.

brihaspati-ji. On one hand you want to do what us Chinese did. On the other hand you give us sh!t for doing it. As I said before, we are the same side on two different coins. One is a penny and the other is a dime. But I digress.

[brihaspati]

^^^Ah! once again - in your eagerness you miss the step ! You did not notice the "X-posting" notice and the clear indication that itwas originally a post by "shiv" from the "Islamism" thread! As far as I know of "communist" functioning - they are trained to be meticulous above a certain level of hierarchy! You have not yet crossed that threshold?

[shiv]

http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs ... /Guang.pdf
East Turkestan Terrorism and the Terrorist
Arc: China’s Post-9/11 Anti-Terror Strategy
Pan Guang*

The Chinese authorities began to feel the urgency of anti-terrorism
only after terrorist violence emerged with the separatist “East Turkestan”
movement in Xinjiang in the early 1990s.
<snip>
. In November 1945, the Eastern Turkestan Republic was set
up in Yining, but was also relatively short-lived and lasted only for half a
year. In the four decades from the founding of the People’s Republic of
China in 1949 to the withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan in
1989, “East Turkestan” separatists rarely undertook armed activities
within Chinese borders. However, the end of the “jihad” against Soviet
troops in Afghanistan combined with the chaotic situation unfolding
there in the early 1990s somewhat spilled over, providing separatists with
an opportunity of waging a “jihad” in Xinjiang.
<snip>
In order to cope with these terrorist challenges that threatened
China’s security and unity , the Chinese authorities began to formulate an
anti-terrorism strategy seriously, focusing mainly on combating “East
Turkestan” terrorist forces to ensure the security and stability of
Xinjiang. Anti-terror corps were organized in Xinjiang, the first among
China’s provinces and autonomous regions, under the fiscal support of
the central government. Meanwhile, as the “East Turkestan” movement
had international connections and was transnational in nature, this
inadvertently implied that any Chinese anti-terrorist strategy was forced
to rely on international cooperation. Indeed, this became one of the
driving forces behind the institutionalization of the “Shanghai Five” and
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) mechanisms. From the
Chinese perspective, it was of particular importance that China could
now, within the framework of the organization, count upon the support
of the other five member states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan and Russia)(What? No Pakistan???) in its campaign against the “East Turkestan” movement.

oooops! I take that back! Pakistan is there. The tarrest fliends are in an embrace as tight as the love of Allah for the faithful

what is most alarming to us
in this region is terrorists’ frequent targeting of Chinese citizens. On
May 3, 2004, Chinese engineers working in the Pakistani Gwadar Port
were attacked by car bombs leaving three killed and nine wounded. On
June 10, 2004, a group of Afghan terrorists attacked a construction site
near Kunduz causing the death of eleven Chinese workers and further
injuring four. In October 2004, two Chinese engineers were taken hostage
with one eventually being killed by Al-Qaeda militants, according to
Pakistani officials. More recently, three Chinese engineers were killed in
Gwadar

Alarming? What's alarming? Just kill them darn Moslems.

[TonyMontana]

^^^Ah! once again - in your eagerness you miss the step ! You did not notice the "X-posting" notice and the clear indication that itwas originally a post by "shiv" from the "Islamism" thread! As far as I know of "communist" functioning - they are trained to be meticulous above a certain level of hierarchy! You have not yet crossed that threshold?

+1 B-ji. The research underling that failed me has been correctly punished according to Party regulations.

But do you disagree with my intended meaning?

We're not so different. You and I.

[Karna_A]

+1 B-ji. The research underling that failed me has been correctly punished according to Party regulations.

But do you disagree with my intended meaning?

We're not so different. You and I.

I think there is a lot of difference between you and Brihaspati.
Your ancestors built Great Wall of China, but forgot that opium can bypass all walls. An entire generation was therefore junkie.

Brihaspati's ancestors built a great culture that seeped throughout the whole world. A whole continent was thus enligtened.

Your 2 trillion dollars reserve can never ever create even one iota of human culture, even if it can fake all toys of the world.

Before communism, Chinese were known to use their minds. Papermaking, Compass, Gunpowder and printing were due to great chinese minds.
Now Chinese just use their hands, as minds have been rented to CPC.

Hand jobs can please some of your citizens all the time, and all the citizens some of the time, but it can never please all your citizens all the time

[Rudradev]

I think our esteemed Chinese visitors may be in danger of deluding themselves about a couple of things, regarding a nuclear exchange scenario between India and Pakistan. Their opinion seems to be that, regardless of the savage BR-Jingo urge to punish China for nuclear proliferation to Pakistan, the "cooler heads" of our political decision-makers (as well as their quintessentially democratic lack of "political will" to retaliate against China) will result in the PRC emerging unscathed.

I would like to point out that whatever happens, once an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange is initiated, will have very little bearing on Jingo emotionalism or political will or any of the rest of it. It will be a matter of sheer practicality, relating to the dynamics of nuclear deterrence.

During the cold war, an axiom of deterrence among the US strategic command (no doubt the Soviets had an equivalent phrase) was: "when one flies, they all fly."

What this means is, decisions about retaliation are not left up to the moment when a nuclear exchange is actually initiated; they are based on a pre-formulated doctrine of retaliation, which in turn is based on the assumption that the window of capability to retaliate against a nuclear attack is itself likely to be very limited.

And let's remember, this is in context of a trans-continental nuclear exchange, when ballistic missiles launched from the USA or USSR would be in the air a good 15-20 minutes before they arrived at their intended targets.

This is an unimaginably luxurious sprawl of time compared to what an exchange in the subcontinent will look like.

A ballistic missile flies at about 6000 km/h. The distance from Chaklala to New Delhi is approximately 600 km.

This means that, even if detected at launch by IAF Phalcons, the maximum response time that the Indian leadership can possibly allow itself to a Pakistani nuclear weapon is approximately six minutes.

What do our esteemed Chinese visitors think will happen in those six minutes?

Note, the question also applies to some "non-state actor" group in Pakistan setting off a Chinese-supplied warhead in an Indian city. As soon as that occurs, the Pakistanis will assume that they have no option but to immediately launch their more "official" arsenal of nukes against India as well... because India might otherwise retaliate with its arsenal against Pakistan and deprive them of the capability forever. It's use-them-or-lose-them, from that instant onwards.

So, six minutes in any scenario... maximum. That's how long the Indian PM, MOD, their advisers, and the chiefs of military staff can allow themselves to enact a retaliation. Not to PLAN one... but to ENACT one.

In those six minutes, do we imagine that the decision of how to retaliate will be deferred until all the observational data regarding enemy nuclear strikes can be collated and analysed?

Will the leaders of India sit on their hands (maintaining "cool heads") while they wait to see if Pakistan has only launched one missile against India, or many, or if it has also launched F-16s? Will they wait while the Phalcon data are analysed to determine whether Pakistan has dispatched one, or some, or all of its nuclear arsenal against India? Will they wait for telemetric analysis to determine whether those Pakistani nukes have been employed in counter-force strikes, or whether they are headed for tier-1 or tier-2 cities? Will they then use this information to calculate the survivability of India's own strategic arsenal in each of several possible scenarios?

Anyone who thinks so is deluding themselves. There will be no exercise of political will here, and no entry of personal leadership styles or worldviews into the equation.

What will happen in those six minutes will not depend, at all, on who the PM or political leadership of India happen to be at the time. The decision will not be made in those six minutes. It has already been made. The parameters of Indian nuclear retaliation, even if they are not publicly advertised, have already been established.

This scenario has already been rehearsed, you can be sure, by every Indian PM to inhabit 7, Race Course Road, probably since even before 1998. Whether that PM happens to be AB Vajpayee or Manmohan Singh or Rahul Gandhi... the actions he or she will take in those six minutes are already determined, as a matter of absolute doctrine. Personal temperaments, worldviews and prejudices of the Indian civilian leadership will not enter the picture at all. Everyone on BRF knows of my great admiration for Manmohan Singh... yet, even I have no doubt even for a moment that he will play his role when those six minutes come. He has practiced it more than once, and can do it in his sleep.

The doctrine our leadership will follow is this. From the first instant Pakistan launches one missile at us, the only safe assumption in the next six minutes becomes that Pakistan has launched *all* its nukes at us. That, in six minutes or less, we must assume that we will suffer the maximum losses that the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is theoretically capable of inflicting on us... including successful counter-value strikes that will cripple our power and communications grids, and counter-force strikes that will render our own nuclear arsenal completely useless.

Any additional doctrinal assumptions regarding what else might happen in those six minutes, have already been made to allow for the worst case scenario. Including, undoubtedly, the possibility that China has detected the launch from Pakistan and decided to hedge its bets by firing its own nukes at India; or indeed, that the first Pakistani missile launch represents a joint China-Pakistan nuclear strike.

In this situation of an extremely limited time window, the only doctrine that a country can afford to follow... any nuclear-armed country, not just India... is to immediately respond with the maximum force available to it. The country's leaders do not know if their retaliatory capacity, or even they themselves, will survive for one second after that window expires. And in the Indian subcontinent, that window is approximately six minutes.

So I would ask our esteemed Chinese guests; what do you think will happen once the first Pakistani nuclear misile, or nuclear-armed fighter-bomber, takes off for India?

In the instant of detecting the Pakistani launch... will our leaders look at the Agnis we have pointed at China, and assume that those will be useful for any longer than six minutes?

And, even if we are calm level-headed individuals with no grudge to bear for 1962... how do you think we will proceed?

[nvishal]

@tony
No indian wants a war with china. But indians will not forget what china has done in the past and what it continues to do so in the present. The suspicion is logical or as you like to say - "rational".

Suspicion is fine. A overwhelming urge to punish, no matter the cost, is not.

I don't think you have any idea what you're talking about.

They're there to prevent India from destroying Pakistan.

As for India nuking China in response to Pakistan nuking India, I think both are pretty unlikely. Neither Pakistan nor India is suicidal, and other world powers would step in to ensure that things don't escalate, making it even less likely.

I hope china's investments have considered costs and benefits. Whether nuclear exchange between india and pakistan is possible or not, we don't know. What is known is that pakistans survival depends upon india's destruction.

I don't know if china's realizes the craziness it has gotten into. Understand the words correctly... When china gave nukes to pakistan, it automatically became a party in the problem. It automatically became a part of south asia. And india will make china a part of everything.

[TonyMontana]

And, even if we are calm level-headed individuals with no grudge to bear for 1962... how do you think we will proceed?

I have some questions for you.

The second that the Pakistanis launches their nukes, is the second that they decides they are going to die. How did they get to that stage? Why would China allow them to get to that stage?

If India does indeed has the policy of nuking both China and Pakistan, instead of just Pakistan. Why wouldn't they make the policy known? Doesn't making that policy know has a deterant effect on China? And by extension, Pakistan? When the nukes are flying, as you said, it's too late. I think it's in Indian Government's interest to not have India glassed. Instead of delivering the "proper" punishment after India is glassed.

So is this actual Indian Government policy? Or is it just wishful thinking on your part? As you say, you only got 6 mintues to make the D.

Remember, the point of nuclear deterance is not just punishment after the fact. It is to never have that exchange in the first place.

[TonyMontana]

What is known is that pakistans survival depends upon india's destruction.

That's a big call. I give you a alternative.

Pakistan's survival depends on the continuing low intensity attacks on India.

[JwalaMukhi]

Now Chinese just use their hands, as minds have been rented to CPC.

Hand jobs can please some of your citizens all the time, and all the citizens some of the time, but it can never please all your citizens all the time

Touche'. Earlier only eunuchs were allowed inside the "forbidden fortress". Now, the only difference is scope for hand jobs is left intact, while only enslaved minds are allowed inside the "forbidden fortress".

[Arjun]

Remember, the point of nuclear deterance is not just punishment after the fact. It is to never have that exchange in the first place.

If the Chinese seriously thought, when they were giving nukes to Pakistan, that they were helping to deter nuclear exchange by giving to a responsbile power, they have proven themselves to be laughably naive and stupidly dangerous. They will deserve everything coming to them if and when the nukes start flying.

[JwalaMukhi]

Not only are they naive and stupid, but vile and evil. They did not hesitate to poison the waters where others are known to use it for drinking.

[Rudradev]

So is this actual Indian Government policy? Or is it just wishful thinking on your part? As you say, you only got 6 mintues to make the D.

Remember, the point of nuclear deterance is not just punishment after the fact. It is to never have that exchange in the first place.

You don't seem to realize that I'm not talking about deterrence at all. The six-minute scenario comes into play when deterence has already broken down, i.e. Pakistan or Pakistan-sponsored parties launch a nuclear strike against India.

Also, it's not that we only have 6 minutes to "make the D." Decisions like that are not deferred to the last six minutes, they are already pre-formulated as a matter of doctrine. No nation is obliged to make its doctrine public, and likely will not do so unless there is any advantage to be gained by doing so.

The second that the Pakistanis launches their nukes, is the second that they decides they are going to die. How did they get to that stage? Why would China allow them to get to that stage?

With all due respect, I don't think there's very much China can do at this point, about allowing or not allowing them. This is why the response I have described, is inevitable when things come to that stage.

If India does indeed has the policy of nuking both China and Pakistan, instead of just Pakistan. Why wouldn't they make the policy known? Doesn't making that policy know has a deterant effect on China? And by extension, Pakistan?

That is simple.

Firstly, there is no deterrence value, any longer, to India announcing such a policy publicly. Let us say that at one point, China and India were both declared nuclear powers, but Pakistan was not. At that time, it might have had some deterrence value for India to announce: if China provides Pakistan with nuclear weapons, we will nuke both China and Pakistan in response to a Pakistani nuclear attack. But that time has passed. We cannot deter you from something you have already done.

Secondly, there is demonstrable deterrence value sometimes in the generation of uncertainty, by not publicly pronouncing the intent of nuclear retaliatory policy. India has been a "declared" nuclear power since May 11, 1998. When did we weaponize? Surely not on May 10, 1998! For 24 years following the peaceful nuclear explosion conducted in 1974, we had no demonstrated nuclear weapons capability, and no declared retaliatory policy... far from it. Yet, the 1974 Smiling Buddha had real deterrence value for decades. Similarly, Pakistan has had Chinese-supplied nuclear weapons capability since the 1980s, and despite not having announced any public retaliatory policy, it had deterrence value before their own nuclear tests of May 28, 1998. Deterrence does not necessarily rely on public pronouncements.

When the nukes are flying, as you said, it's too late. I think it's in Indian Government's interest to not have India glassed. Instead of delivering the "proper" punishment after India is glassed.

Again, you're missing the point. India's retaliatory policy is not entirely about deterrence, but also encompasses the doctrine of response if and when deterrence actually breaks down.

When Pakistan attacks India with nuclear weapons, that deterrence has already broken down. At this point, there is nothing much to do about avoiding the possibility of India getting glassed. There is, however, a very short window of time in which the Indian leadership can safely assume that its strategic nuclear assets will be usable; and there will also be no incentive whatsoever to refrain from using them.

There is no such thing as a limited nuclear war; once Pakistan has risen to the very top of the escalation ladder, the only safe assumption is that within a short span of time India will be glassed. Where is the time to sit and wonder if this is a freak single missile fired by a rogue faction of TSPA, or indeed a joint Chinese-Pakistani strike intended to completely glass India? Where is the guarantee that what started as one nuke exploded by Pakistani terrorists, will not be factored into the calculus of Beijing and Islamabad that such a massive joint strike is the best follow-on option available to them? Without more than six minutes to ponder these questions, what assumptions is the Indian leadership going to make?

Under these circumstances, the Indian leadership will have to assume that India is going to be glassed... and all of India's Agnis pointed at China, are also going to be glassed in a very short span of time unless they are launched. At this point it is no longer about "punishment" or jingoism or malice. It is about using your investments while they still retain any value. When one flies, they all fly. China will be glassed as well... at the very least, all the parts of China which have glass skyscrapers.

[Dhiman]

Remember, the point of nuclear deterance is not just punishment after the fact. It is to never have that exchange in the first place.

The moment someone presses the button, the rules of the game will completely change and all your rationalizing will go down the drain. Never make the mistake of assuming that normal logic and thinking will apply in face of an actual nuclear situation.

For once, step out of your brainwashing and stop thinking inside the box when you talk about weapons that can potentially be civilization ending,

[Pranav]

Another possibility is a fourth entity causing a false-flag nuke inside India - the consequence would be the glassing, within minutes, of China, India and Pakistan together.

Anyway, the Communist Party of China has made its decision to die with Pakistan and India.

[Theo_Fidel]

There is a specific reason most of Indian missiles have had their range carefully raised to include all Chinese cities but no further.

Also why India is building Nuclear subs for clear second strike capability. You really think we fear Pakistan regarding second strike.
They will all be targeted at China.

When Pakistan launches, China+Pak gets it as well. Its a Chinese bomb, that's the way South Block babu's tend to think. They are the ones with the codes.

It is scary to think China does not acknowledge this.

The thing to note is China now has the largest number of nuclear/near nuclear neighbors in the world. Much of it thru its own efforts.

[DavidD]

Remember, the point of nuclear deterance is not just punishment after the fact. It is to never have that exchange in the first place.

If the Chinese seriously thought, when they were giving nukes to Pakistan, that they were helping to deter nuclear exchange by giving to a responsbile power, they have proven themselves to be laughably naive and stupidly dangerous. They will deserve everything coming to them if and when the nukes start flying.

You guys sound as suicidal as the Pakistanis you hate so much, let's not forget that India will be annihilated, and probably more completely than China would be, too

[Hari Seldon]

^^^+1 only, theo garu.

Brilliantly articulated this last part.

The thing to note is China now has the largest number of nuclear/near nuclear neighbors in the world. Much of it thru its own efforts.

Oh, I see, the troll reveals its true colors and thinking, looks like. The point of deterrence is the converse of the assured destruction scenario that cheeni trolls love to paint us Yindians as carrying.

we'll destroy you ... blah blah

If the CPC understands what we are saying here, then chances are there'll be no nook launch by Pak because the CPC controls all paki nukes - either directly or almost directly. If however, in the unlikely event that the CPC doesn't control its own nukes gifted to pak, if indeed CPC has been that monumentally stoopid, then assured destruction is, well, assured only.

Peace.

[Arjun]

If the Chinese seriously thought, when they were giving nukes to Pakistan, that they were helping to deter nuclear exchange by giving to a responsbile power, they have proven themselves to be laughably naive and stupidly dangerous. They will deserve everything coming to them if and when the nukes start flying.

You guys sound as suicidal as the Pakistanis you hate so much, let's not forget that India will be annihilated, and probably more completely than China would be, too

How so? Did I say India starts the exchange? I would have expected better logic coming from an engineer turned medical practioner.

What I made is exactly the same statement wrt India as you just did wrt China:

let's not forget that India will be annihilated, and probably more completely than China would be, too

[DavidD]

Remember, the point of nuclear deterance is not just punishment after the fact. It is to never have that exchange in the first place.

The moment someone presses the button, the rules of the game will completely change and all your rationalizing will go down the drain. Never make the mistake of assuming that normal logic and thinking will apply in face of an actual nuclear situation.

For once, step out of your brainwashing and stop thinking inside the box when you talk about weapons that can potentially be civilization ending,

The point is that rationality would preclude someone pressing the button in the first place. I just don't think the Pakis are as suicidal as you guys portray them to be, I feel just as safe with nukes in their hands as I do with nukes in Indian hands. They're not gonna nuke you, and you're not gonna nuke them, and that's just the way it is.

Besides, it's a whole other step to nuke China in a nuclear exchange with Pakistan. I mean, what's stopping China from threatening Russia or even the U.S. with nukes if India nukes China? Will it work? Well, Chinese missiles can reach Moscow and Washington, Indian ones can't. Whose side do you think they'll be on when push comes to shove?

[shiv]

You guys sound as suicidal as the Pakistanis you hate so much, let's not forget that India will be annihilated, and probably more completely than China would be, too

Let's face it. Neither India nor China will be annihilated.

400 Chinese nukes @ 1million killed per nuke (an overestimate) will still leave 1 billion Indians alive. This is, in fact exactly the sort of calculation that Mao had done.

And 80 Indian nukes @ 150,000 dead per nuke will leave the Chinese nearly untouched. Both are overestimates.

Don't talk about life and economy after that - but look at the benefits

1) Most Indians and Chinese will still be alive
2) They will have no more nukes to hit each other with
3) The countries will need reconstruction - a great way to kick start a post nuke war economy

I am all for it.

[naren]

^^^ the population density factor for China is higher than India. So it will be more than 150K. Plus the lucrative targets are small in number.

[shiv]

I just don't think the Pakis are as suicidal as you guys portray them to be

We're certainly testing them to find out.

But you don't know Pakistanis. You misunderestimate them. You see, Pakistanis are a marital matial race. They are warriors of Islam. They are not scared of short skinny curry breath Indians. One Pakistani is equal to six to ten Indians - so India will have to use that many more men or nukes to defeat them.

Just look at the truth. India is much bigger and more populous that Pakistan. Yet we can't beat them. Pakistan is not so weak that a little nuclear war with India will scare them They don't scare easy. he point I am making is that from the Pakistanian viewpoint it is not suicidal to nuke India. it's just part of overall victory that will show their superioity. Maybe you ought to discuss this with Pakistanians.

[DavidD]

You guys sound as suicidal as the Pakistanis you hate so much, let's not forget that India will be annihilated, and probably more completely than China would be, too

Let's face it. Neither India nor China will be annihilated.

400 Chinese nukes @ 1million killed per nuke (an overestimate) will still leave 1 billion Indians alive. This is, in fact exactly the sort of calculation that Mao had done.

And 80 Indian nukes @ 150,000 dead per nuke will leave the Chinese nearly untouched. Both are overestimates.

Don't talk about life and economy after that - but look at the benefits

1) Most Indians and Chinese will still be alive
2) They will have no more nukes to hit each other with
3) The countries will need reconstruction - a great way to kick start a post nuke war economy

I am all for it.

Yea, but you forgot to consider the fact that China could threaten Russia and the U.S. with nukes since they're the real masters of India(hey, doesn't have to be true!). Then they'll help China nuke India so they won't get nuked by China for "retaliation"

[niran]

Yea, but you forgot to consider the fact that China could threaten Russia and the U.S. with nukes since they're the real masters of India(hey, doesn't have to be true!). Then they'll help China nuke India so they won't get nuked by China for "retaliation"

so tarrel than ocean and deepel than mountains are scared, BTW the combined US and Rooski Nuclear strength will wipe China off the face many times over,
in place few few million nook fried Chinese, rather unwise art of war i say.

[DavidD]

Yea, but you forgot to consider the fact that China could threaten Russia and the U.S. with nukes since they're the real masters of India(hey, doesn't have to be true!). Then they'll help China nuke India so they won't get nuked by China for "retaliation"

so tarrel than ocean and deepel than mountains are scared, BTW the combined US and Rooski Nuclear strength will wipe China off the face many times over,
in place few few million nook fried Chinese, rather unwise art of war i say.

Sure, but they'd have their major cities laying in ruins too, so why would they do that? Why wouldn't they just avoid it by nuking India instead? They can escape from this whole ordeal unscathed, with only India lying in ruins.

[nvishal]

You guys sound as suicidal as the Pakistanis you hate so much, let's not forget that India will be annihilated, and probably more completely than China would be, too

That is the madness i was trying to tell you about. See, both india and pakistan are "not" trying to survive a nuclear war. When things go down, it'll go down for total annihilation. I just do not understand why china chose to became a part of indo-paks MAD. Do the benefits of your investment really outweigh the costs?

[Pranav]

Sure, but they'd have their major cities laying in ruins too, so why would they do that? Why wouldn't they just avoid it by nuking India instead? They can escape from this whole ordeal unscathed, with only India lying in ruins.

How it starts is immaterial. The sequence of actions is pre-decided. Given that China has decided that it wants to die along with Paki Wahhabi Islamists, the end is the same.

I think you better talk this over with your Pak brothers. We know their ideologies and strategies better than you do.

[DavidD]

You guys sound as suicidal as the Pakistanis you hate so much, let's not forget that India will be annihilated, and probably more completely than China would be, too

That is the madness i was trying to tell you about. See, both india and pakistan are "not" trying to survive a nuclear war. When things go down, it'll go down for total annihilation. I just do not understand why china chose to became a part of indo-paks MAD. Do the benefits of your investment really outweigh the costs?

Yes, the benefit is avoiding an inevitable collapse of Pakistan at the hands of India, the cost is a very, very remote chance of nuclear war with India.

It's really pretty odd how some of you guys think. First you believe Pakistan leaders are suicidal, then you assume that the only way to combat that is by being equally suicidal. I'm confident that neither the Pakistani leaders nor the Indian leaders are remotely as suicidal as you think they are, so it's pretty obvious what would happen.

[Arjun]

It's really pretty odd how some of you guys think. First you believe Pakistan leaders are suicidal, then you assume that the only way to combat that is by being equally suicidal. I'm confident that neither the Pakistani leaders nor the Indian leaders are remotely as suicidal as you think they are, so it's pretty obvious what would happen.

David, can you tell me how China would react to the following hypothetical scenario? India, in order to escape the mutual nuclear deterrance scenario with China, starts proliferating to Vietnam or Taiwan. Subsequently Taiwan uses these nukes on Shaghai, Beijing and Dalian. How would / should China react?

Please note, before you start throwing wild accusations of being suicidal etc, that this is a hypothetical scenario, AND this scenario has obviously already been initiated from the China side though not from the India end...

[Arjun]

I just don't think the Pakis are as suicidal as you guys portray them to be

And you are talking about the suicide bombing capital of the world Do the Chinese read newspapers or follow the news at all?

[Pranav]

Yes, the benefit is avoiding an inevitable collapse of Pakistan at the hands of India, the cost is a very, very remote chance of nuclear war with India.

It's really pretty odd how some of you guys think. First you believe Pakistan leaders are suicidal, then you assume that the only way to combat that is by being equally suicidal. I'm confident that neither the Pakistani leaders nor the Indian leaders are remotely as suicidal as you think they are, so it's pretty obvious what would happen.

Pakistanis have to keep increasing the level of terrorist violence to compensate for their all-round failures. At the same time, since India's conventional advantage is increasing, their nuclear threshold keeps going down.

Pakistanis would rather use nuclear weapons than face defeat. Their "honor" and fanatical convictions demand that.

Since a Paki nuke is in reality a Chinese nuke, the consequences would follow.

You should also be concerned about other consequences. What if Pakistani Islamists decide that there should be a nuclear balance of power inside China, between the Hans and the Muslim Uighurs?

[nvishal]

Yes, the benefit is avoiding an inevitable collapse of Pakistan at the hands of India, the cost is a very, very remote chance of nuclear war with India.

It's really pretty odd how some of you guys think. First you believe Pakistan leaders are suicidal, then you assume that the only way to combat that is by being equally suicidal. I'm confident that neither the Pakistani leaders nor the Indian leaders are remotely as suicidal as you think they are, so it's pretty obvious what would happen.

I think when your leaders propped by the pakistani's back in the 70's, they had very little information about reasons for the partition of india-pakistan. The info available in the public domain is misleading. The reasons date back to as before as the islamic invasion. I do not have the strength to try to make you understand what is the problem of india-pakistan. It has nothing to do with kashmir. There will never be a reconciliation. And it could only end in mutual destruction. I think the reality of the situation will eventually hit the chinese over time.

I do not know about "unlikelihood". Eventually, there will be one pakistani who will do something really stupid.

[Arjun]

Tony and David, Pls see the following article: China, US & Taiwan

A quote from this article:

Zhu rose to prominence in China in 2005 after he warned that if the United States came to Taiwan's defense in a war with China, Beijing would abandon its "no first use" doctrine on nuclear weapons and attack the United States.

Would like an answer from both of you on this..what are your views regarding Zhu's comment? Is China the most suicidal nation of all - when neither India nor Pakistan nor any other nuclear power is talking about escalating a conventional war to nuclear, China is. Do you agree with Zhu's stance?