Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[Suraj]

Until about late April the vaccine availability situation in many parts of the US resembled the CoWin registration situation. In bay area, people drove down to Bakersfield or Tulare to get vaccinated because there were no eligibility checks in those counties. This is an 800km roundtrip drive. And this is on top of existing hesitation and antivaxxer movements making accessibility easier. Things have eased up a little in May, but between Jan-April the situation here was very constrained.

In India, there's a similar demand-supply issue that in my estimation continues to ease as we approach June and gets much better into July and August.

[Sachin]

This Pfizer/ Moderna racket needs to be kept out of India until all regulatory hurdles are cleared. The perception of shortfall is being created by state Level lobbies for enable these monopolists to come into India.

+1. Half an hour back I read a news in an online Malayalam new outlet which was doing what exactly you mentioned. The report was spinning a story that Pfizer and Moderna were trying to help India, but Modi & GoI rebuffed their offer. And now they are paying for that mistake.

Moderna's single-dose Covid-19 vaccine in India likely next year; Pfizer ready with 5 cr doses for 2021
Now this is from a Congress stooge of a news paper. As per this report;
Moderna is expecting to launch a single-dose Covid-19 vaccine in India next year and is in talks with Cipla among other Indian firms, while another US giant Pfizer is ready to offer 5 crore shots in 2021 itself but it wants significant regulatory relaxations including indemnification, sources said on Tuesday.

So Moderna only plans for next year, where as Pfizer is still in the arm twisting mode and looks like they want to download untested, or unverified medicines in India (and also get way if things go wrong). And the main stream media is already playing a drama to create a situation of panic, and then trying to force GoI to buy Pfizer's vaccines.

[Sachin]

Mean while even Deccan Herald admits..
Timely planning helped Karnataka overcome the oxygen crisis: K Sudhakar
More the BJP senior leadership focuses on operations on the ground, things are improving. Perhaps this was a bit late; but better late than never.

[sajo]

Me and the better half were vaccinated with COVISHIELD. We were trying for a couple of weeks to get slots for the <44 criteria, but was really hard while only government centers were doing it.
Once private hospitals opened up slots, it was a breeze and we got an appointment within a couple of hours. 90% of my friends and colleagues under 44 have either received the jab this week already, or will receive it before Sunday. This is here in Pune.
All smaller hospitals seemed to have pooled their resources and placed a common order placing them at par with larger hospital chains with a bigger financial clout.
Vaccination experience :
- I got the vaccine at a school, but managed by Deenanath Mangeshkar Hospital. The hospital specifically said that this would solve a lot of potential issues by avoiding intermingling of patient kin and vaccine beneficiaries. Also unnecessary crowding is avoided.
- The center was managed really well, so far I have visited 7 different vaccination centers in the city with various senior citizens for their shots when I was ferrying them around and this was easily the best managed.
- Got a token after showing appointment details on my phone and Aadhar. We were serial no. 400 + .
- An airy well ventilated area for waiting while in queue. Some ultra dedicated folks were actually working during this time.
- Paid 900 at the counter. Contactless cards and cash accepted. Now we get a secret 4 digit code that you need to share with the vaccinator to confirm that its you have received the jab and not some impersonator that got from your allocated quota.
- Inspite of huge crowds, we were out in an hour and a half. Thanks to the waiting period post vax which has been cut down to 10 minutes (time to take the print of the certificate), which given the drive's target demographic may not be needed.
- The whole exercise for them is being executed as a charity, and all profits would be funneled back to buying more shots and those in need would be given them free. They are also open to donations.
- Received SMS and a feedback request from the MOHFW post vax.
- The arogya setu status changed to "partially vaccinated" and also shows a countdown to the next dose. (y)
- I request everyone who can to get the vaccines at private centers and leave government shots to those who really need them.

Overall a very nice experience and proves what can potentially happen when the supply constraints ease up.

The better half had more side effects than me, with fever, bodyache , nausea etc. I had the same, except a relatively milder. Found going through the work day a bit of a chore.

[Atmavik]

^^^ sajo ji, thanks for the detailed post. much needed morale booster.

[sajo]

Atmavik ji, pranams and just letting people know that while it may temporarily seem all doom and gloom, its not that bad when the country simply decides to pull up our collective dhotis and decide sprint.

[Atmavik]

Until about late April the vaccine availability situation in many parts of the US resembled the CoWin registration situation. In bay area, people drove down to Bakersfield or Tulare to get vaccinated because there were no eligibility checks in those counties. This is an 800km roundtrip drive. And this is on top of existing hesitation and antivaxxer movements making accessibility easier. Things have eased up a little in May, but between Jan-April the situation here was very constrained.

In India, there's a similar demand-supply issue that in my estimation continues to ease as we approach June and gets much better into July and August.

it was a similar case here in Maryland till the end of March. my neighbor had a tough time booking a slot for his parents who are 70+ . we had an age + (FLW) based phasing but many younger folks were jumping the queue as there was no verification of ones status. come April maryland started phase 3 and Mass vaccination sites. By mid april most local pharmacies had open slots for vaccination and Mass vaccination sites started taking walk ins. one of my friends parents were visiting from india and got the vaccine by showing there passport.

As supply side improves by July hope the delivery also catches up. we need these mass vaccination drives/centers to cross 5 million/day. need to rope in employers/diagnostic centers to organize vaccination camps.

[vipins]

Telangana has allowed vaccinations for 18+ category in private hospitals from today.

[Atmavik]

20,06,62,456 vaccine doses administered today

[Zynda]

UK has now reduced Oxford vaccine duration between 2nd dose to 8 weeks citing B.1.617.2 variant. The effectiveness against the said variant increases after 2nd dose significantly...will India follow soon? I do hope come July, it would be prudent to bring it down to 8 weeks again...

[Mukesh.Kumar]

20,06,62,456 vaccine doses administered today

Something is amiss here. Is that 20 crore doses today or till date?

[Atmavik]

20,06,62,456 vaccine doses administered today

Something is amiss here. Is that 20 crore doses today or till date?

Oh.. that’s the total till date

[Kakkaji]

Today's official vaccination numbers:

COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 131

Cumulative Vaccine Coverage exceeds 20.25 Crore

More than 1.38 Cr beneficiaries of age group 18-44 Vaccinated so far

More than 17.19 lakh Vaccine Doses administered today till 7 pm

The cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country exceeded 20.25 Cr (20,25,29,884) as per the 7 pm provisional report today.

8,31,500 beneficiaries of the age group 18-44 years received their first dose of COVID vaccine today and cumulatively 1,38,62,428 across 37 States/UTs since the start of Phase-3 of the vaccination drive. Bihar, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh have administered more than 10 lakh beneficiaries of the age group 18-44 years for their first dose of COVID vaccine.

As on Day-131 of the vaccination drive (26th May, 2021), total 17,19,931vaccine doses were given. 15,76,982 beneficiaries were vaccinated for 1st dose and 1,42,949 beneficiaries received 2nd dose of vaccine as per the provisional report till 7 P.M.

[Kakkaji]

- Paid 900 at the counter. Contactless cards and cash accepted. Now we get a secret 4 digit code that you need to share with the vaccinator to confirm that its you have received the jab and not some impersonator that got from your allocated quota.

Was it Rs 900 for the two of you, or just for one person?

[AshishA]

CCP did it. And the US funded it.

[Jarita]

Today's official vaccination numbers:

COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 131

Cumulative Vaccine Coverage exceeds 20.25 Crore

More than 1.38 Cr beneficiaries of age group 18-44 Vaccinated so far

More than 17.19 lakh Vaccine Doses administered today till 7 pm

The cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country exceeded 20.25 Cr (20,25,29,884) as per the 7 pm provisional report today.

8,31,500 beneficiaries of the age group 18-44 years received their first dose of COVID vaccine today and cumulatively 1,38,62,428 across 37 States/UTs since the start of Phase-3 of the vaccination drive. Bihar, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh have administered more than 10 lakh beneficiaries of the age group 18-44 years for their first dose of COVID vaccine.

As on Day-131 of the vaccination drive (26th May, 2021), total 17,19,931vaccine doses were given. 15,76,982 beneficiaries were vaccinated for 1st dose and 1,42,949 beneficiaries received 2nd dose of vaccine as per the provisional report till 7 P.M.

Significant vaccine wastage in states like Jharkhand and Chattisgarh at upwards of 30%. The 30% cut habit of this particular party has persisted through decades.

[Suraj]

Today's official vaccination numbers:

COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 131

Cumulative Vaccine Coverage exceeds 20.25 Crore

More than 1.38 Cr beneficiaries of age group 18-44 Vaccinated so far

More than 17.19 lakh Vaccine Doses administered today till 7 pm

The cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country exceeded 20.25 Cr (20,25,29,884) as per the 7 pm provisional report today.

8,31,500 beneficiaries of the age group 18-44 years received their first dose of COVID vaccine today and cumulatively 1,38,62,428 across 37 States/UTs since the start of Phase-3 of the vaccination drive. Bihar, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh have administered more than 10 lakh beneficiaries of the age group 18-44 years for their first dose of COVID vaccine.

As on Day-131 of the vaccination drive (26th May, 2021), total 17,19,931vaccine doses were given. 15,76,982 beneficiaries were vaccinated for 1st dose and 1,42,949 beneficiaries received 2nd dose of vaccine as per the provisional report till 7 P.M.

And this report also shows the same trend of day-day delta differing from the daily count:
Reported: 17,19,931
Day-to-day diff: 20,25,29,884-20,04,94,991 = 20,34,893

Tuesday diff : 20,51,441
Monday diff : 23 lakh

In short, rate is back up above 2M/day this week.

[Atmavik]

here is a nice dashboard built out of the PIB data.

https://outbreakindia.com/vaccination

[Mort Walker]

here is a nice dashboard built out of the PIB data.

https://outbreakindia.com/vaccination

Less than 14 million doses administered since May 1st. This is a disappointment. Whether it is state or center, the plan to give doses to the states was not successful in May 2021.

[Kakkaji]

Today's official vaccination numbers:

COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 131

And this report also shows the same trend of day-day delta differing from the daily count:
Reported: 17,19,931
Day-to-day diff: 20,25,29,884-20,04,94,991 = 20,34,893

Tuesday diff : 20,51,441
Monday diff : 23 lakh

In short, rate is back up above 2M/day this week.

Suraj-San:

Could it be that the daily difference is the number of vaccinations between 7pm (when the PIB release is issued for the day) and 7am (when the 24-hour final totals are calculated but not reported by the PIB)?

Just a thought.

[Atmavik]

here is a nice dashboard built out of the PIB data.

https://outbreakindia.com/vaccination

Less than 14 million doses administered since May 1st. This is a disappointment. Whether it is state or center, the plan to give doses to the states was not successful in May 2021.

how did you calculate 14 ? its near 50 million for May. regardless state govts are useless, they are more interested in whose photo comes on the vaccine certificate. Jharkhand is wasting a whopping 30 % when the target is less than 5 %.

hope center takes the drive back as supply improves in July. if states cry then show them Khujliwalls videos on loop.

[saip]

Vaccine tourists are coming to America
CNN
US is sitting on lot more doses than it can use. There is no timeline as to when the promised 60 mill doses will leave US. Those may not even be usable as they have some QC problems.
My nephew's wife is one of those who is flying from India to get vaccinated. She is strictly not a tourist as she is a US citizen but settled in India.

[Kakkaji]

India plans to study effectiveness of AstraZeneca, Bharat Biotech vaccines

India's main health agency will start a study next week to examine the effectiveness of AstraZeneca NSE 0.88 %'s vaccine and the homegrown shot Covaxin against coronavirus, a scientist said on Wednesday.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) will review 3,000-5,000 people above 45 years of age, of which up to 80% will be those who have taken the AstraZeneca vaccine made locally by the Serum Institute of India.

The rest will have taken Covaxin jointly developed by local firm Bharat Biotech and ICMR.

"The main objective is to find out whether the vaccine prevents severe disease," Tarun Bhatnagar told Reuters in a phone interview from the National Institute of Epidemiology (NIE) in Chennai, which will lead the study.

"We will compare people who tested negative with people who tested positive with sub-groups to look for those who were symptomatic and those hospitalised or with severe disease," Bhatnagar said.

The study will also compare the effects of one dose of AstraZeneca shot as against two shots administered, he said.

[Suraj]

And this report also shows the same trend of day-day delta differing from the daily count:
Reported: 17,19,931
Day-to-day diff: 20,25,29,884-20,04,94,991 = 20,34,893

Tuesday diff : 20,51,441
Monday diff : 23 lakh

In short, rate is back up above 2M/day this week.

Suraj-San:

Could it be that the daily difference is the number of vaccinations between 7pm (when the PIB release is issued for the day) and 7am (when the 24-hour final totals are calculated but not reported by the PIB)?

Just a thought.

No. Let me try to explain - every day PIB reports 8PM data, fine. It also reports cumulative vaccinations up to that point. I'm counting:
day n count = cumulative to day n - cumulative to day n-1

Therefore the up to 8PM vs EOD does not apply here - I'm comparing 24hrs apart data.

I did this continuously for a period of 2 months (mid March through May 24) in my data report thread. The 7DMA data shows that currently it is back above 2 million a day, April was only above 4m for a short period in early April, and 7DMA data subsided to 2.3m/day by end April, even before Phase 3 began in May.

[Suraj]

here is a nice dashboard built out of the PIB data.

https://outbreakindia.com/vaccination

Less than 14 million doses administered since May 1st. This is a disappointment. Whether it is state or center, the plan to give doses to the states was not successful in May 2021.

No, that is way off because it's reporting the same broken data I just explained is wrong. On April 30, 154 million people had been vaccinated. As of May 26 (https://www.mohfw.gov.in) it is 202.7 million. That is 48.7 million. We should end the month at around 56-57m vaccinations perhaps even more due to May supplies being biased towards end of month.

[uddu]

https://dashboard.cowin.gov.in/ do have all the data related to daily, last 30 days and all. Also one could see the first dosage, second dosage details and also the registration details. State data can also be checked in similar manner.

[Mort Walker]

Less than 14 million doses administered since May 1st. This is a disappointment. Whether it is state or center, the plan to give doses to the states was not successful in May 2021.

No, that is way off because it's reporting the same broken data I just explained is wrong. On April 30, 154 million people had been vaccinated. As of May 26 (https://www.mohfw.gov.in) it is 202.7 million. That is 48.7 million. We should end the month at around 56-57m vaccinations perhaps even more due to May supplies being biased towards end of month.

Thanks. That dashboard is incorrect then as page 5 indicates about 13.8m between May 1 and 26. I was hoping at 80-90m in May.

[nandakumar]

A 7 day moving average of 2 million would roughly correspond to the production capacity 60 million for SII and 10 million for BB per month which was what they claimed at the beginning. This corresponds to 2.3 million per day. After adjusting for wastage of around 10% we can vaccinate no more than the numbers we are doing now. In other words claims by the manufacturers about ramping up production is yet to happen.

[Suraj]

Thanks. That dashboard is incorrect then as page 5 indicates about 13.8m between May 1 and 26. I was hoping at 80-90m in May.

Yes it's way off the mark.

To summarize some details, between mid Jan and May to date, we have done 202.7 million doses and exported a further 67 million doses, for a total 270 million doses. This does not count wastage, vaccines in pipeline etc. Assuming high single digit wastage percentage and the latest statements about in pipeline, the total here is about 310-320 million . I'm being conservative with wastage estimate and how much time it takes to clear QA especially as production volume grows.

My estimate for cumulative production to April was 330 million. For simplicity, we can assume that production to month N will be consumed up to month N+1 (or N+2 as production rises).

Thus recent trailing production increase data will herald rise in vaccinations a few weeks hence. I don't yet have enough data, though I've seen some interesting estimate, such as this:

[Suraj]

A 7 day moving average of 2 million would roughly correspond to the production capacity 60 million for SII and 10 million for BB per month which was what they claimed at the beginning. This corresponds to 2.3 million per day. After adjusting for wastage of around 10% we can vaccinate no more than the numbers we are doing now. In other words claims by the manufacturers about ramping up production is yet to happen.

All your statements are correct, except the last one. We are looking at May data. May consumption is effectively a projection of production rate up to the prior month due to the time it takes for production to go through QA and distribution. June is the month that will realistically track the May production estimates. More data about this in immediately previous post.

[nandakumar]

Suraj
If your projection for May production which should realistically translate into vaccine availability on the ground in June, turn out to be correct then there should be a sea change in vaccination numbers by mid June. I fervently pray that this comes good.

[Suraj]

Those projections in the image inserted are not my work. It's from @khatvaanga on Twitter, so credit due to the right person here

Yes May and June may be an inflection point in the vaccine supply and hopefully the production rampup happens on schedule.

[arshyam]

Suraj
If your projection for May production which should realistically translate into vaccine availability on the ground in June, turn out to be correct then there should be a sea change in vaccination numbers by mid June. I fervently pray that this comes good.

Anecdotally, the Telegram group I've subscribed to has become way more noisy, for both BLR and MAA. So much so that I now mute the app during the day time . Multiple hospitals/clinics that weren't alerting earlier are now doing so. To me, this indicates an increase of supply, and I expect it to increase further in the coming weeks.

[Zynda]

Karnataka: Health staff taking Covaxin after two doses of Covishield

BENGALURU: Many healthcare workers who have already received two doses of Covishield are now taking a shot of Covaxin and are using a different telephone number and ID to register for the third jab.

Some doctors justified the behaviour saying: “These people work in areas where the viral load is high. hey didn’t have a choice when the vaccines were rolled out but now there is better understanding of the two vaccines. What is wrong if a healthcare worker takes another shot?”

When the vaccination drive was rolled out out for healthcare workers in January, employees in only six government institutions in Karnataka were administered Covaxin, while the rest were given Covishield.

Stray incidents of doctors dying even after receiving two doses may be another reason to seek a booster dose, said a doctor. Also, many healthcare workers have taken antibody tests 28 days after two doses of Covishield. In some cases, the results were negative. These healthcare workers are now keen on taking Covaxin,” doctor said

Denying others

Dr MK Sudarshan, chairperson, Covid Technical Advisory Committee, said he is aware of the trend and while he believed they were acting out of fear and seeking better protection, he admitted they were denying others of immunity. “Covaxin is based on whole inactivated [killed] virus, which is expected to provide better immune response as all antigens are likely to be present,” Dr Sudarshan said. “But, by seeking over protection for themselves amid a shortage of vaccine, they are robbing those in need of the vaccine of an opportunity to gain protection against the virus.”

A member of the Covid expert committee called the trend “unhealthy”. “This should not lead to confusion among the general public who have taken Covishield,” the expert said.

Staff in Bengaluru hospitals suggest there are enough doses to go around since not all taking the shot are concerned about certificates. “Moreover, since the manufacturer factors in spillage, all vials come with an additional dose [11th dose]. If used carefully, the 11th dose can be made available and it would go unrecorded. It’s a loophole which some are seeking to exploit,” sources said.

Not Karnataka alone

The trend is not limited to Karnataka alone. Dr T Jacob John, top virologist from Tamil Nadu, said he had heard of such incidents in that state. I was asked by some doctors if there were any risks. I said I can’t make any recommendations or approve what they were doing,” said Dr John.

But Dr John said interchanging vaccines is scientifically fine. “There is nothing called over-immunisation. Two doses of Covishield and one dose of Covaxin would help them feel emotionally good,” he said.

Empirical Evidence

Dr Sudarshan said interchanging doses was tried (with one dose each) in France, Spain and Germany with vaccines like AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna. “In India there are no guidelines and no evidence. However, there is empirical evidence from our experience with anti-rabies vaccines,” said Dr Sudarshan.

However, Dr Sudarshan said exceptions can be made for those who suffer anaphylaxis reaction after the first dose. Other experts agreed, citing the example of a dental student who suffered an adverse event following immunization. “She was given Covishield. She is a fit case for giving two doses of Covaxin now,” said doctors dealing with the case.

I know of quite a few doctors who were critizing Covaxin back in January...saying things like "These vaccines were tested on Bhophal Gas tragedy victims without their consent"..."I don't trust an Indian vaccine maker who is under pressure to release Make in India vaccine"..."this is a BJP vaccine"...how the tide turns.

Anyways, in the long run, we should try to reduce Covishield shots by the end of this year and encourage BB. BB's Nasal vaccine may be a game changer. I think almost all people will need a 3rd booster shot...make sure the 3rd shot is a nasal vaccine since it is supposedly to offer better protection coverage and even offer protection from transmission.

I think BB is expecting an approval by Oct time frame for its nasal vaccine and starting helping out BB from right now for massive scaling of the vaccine.

BTW, what happened to Zydus Cadilla's vaccine? I thought Ph-3 results should be out by now?

[arshyam]

"and even offer protection from transmission."

I thought all existing vaccines did that to an extent - don't they?

[chanakyaa]

On Wuhan virus impact, one Indian state (UP) against countries, Brazil and Indonesia. I try not to bring the political aspect to this thread, but....numbers are numbers. I may be off with some numbers, but the story does not change. Almost similar population, significantly higher impact of Wuhan virus, and YA with a fraction of budget/resource of these countries. YA is doing a fantastic job. (India data from covid19 site).

[Bart S]

"and even offer protection from transmission."

I thought all existing vaccines did that to an extent - don't they?

They only reduce transmission a bit, not totally eliminate it.

Also, nasal vaccines are quite challenging and not known to be very successful. Hope BB's vaccine is, but best to have enough qty of the traditional vaccines as backup.

[Prasad]

Wailing that slots are hard to find on cowin is barking up the wrong tree. Right now, even if we had 2 billion vaccines, our throughput is only so much. So you will have to compete with every other adult to book slots. And come a cropper leading to having to wait for longer to finally booking your slot.

Having used cowin to book slots for elders in the family, I found the experience a breeze in March and April for scheduling both doses. Now, we have nearly 600 million adults trying to book slots across india. For perspective.

[Suraj]

Stealing Kakkaji's thunder for a day:
Covid-19 Day 132 Vaccination Report

The cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country exceeded 20.54 Cr (20,54,51,902) as per the 7 pm provisional report today.

As on Day-132 of the vaccination drive (27th May, 2021), total 26,58,218 vaccine doses were given. 24,81,196 beneficiaries were vaccinated for 1st dose and 1,77,022 beneficiaries received 2nd dose of vaccine as per the provisional report till 7 P.M. Final reports would be completed for the day by late tonight.

The day to day delta is 20,54,51,902-20,25,29,884 = 29,22,018

We're back at almost 3 million a day.

[Deans]

https://www.livemint.com/science/news/h ... 60541.html

There are concerns about Covax, This article covers them.
If Covax does no deliver, it will be only one of the factors affecting our ability to ramp up vaccine production.

https://the-ken.com/story/covid-taskfor ... r-plan-b/#
(you can read this free by registering)

Thoughts ?