West Asia News and Discussions

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 25 Jun 2014 18:41

Another widely held belief that’s refuted by the financial records is that Iraqi recruits flocked to the Islamic State for higher wages and steady jobs because they couldn’t make ends meet in Iraq’s war-ravaged economy. In the years for which financial records are available, the average Islamic State foot soldier earned a base salary of just $41 a month, far lower than blue-collar Iraq jobs such as a bricklayer making $150 a month, according to Johnston’s comparisons.

Cannot understand why Indians are going there for lowly jobs illegally. Part time maids and cooks earn that much here these days.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 25 Jun 2014 20:26

Frankly I'm in two minds about this "GOI MUST get the Indians Out, or it is FAILING!" position.

On the one hand, yes. Luckless Indians who get stuck in overseas conflict zones or emergency situations that occur *without warning* must be able to rely on the GOI and MEA to evacuate them, no question. This would be the case for some of the stories we've heard on this thread about the '90 Gulf War: people trapped in Kuwait or Iraq who had little or no way of knowing what was going to happen. Saddam's Iraq was a relatively much more bissful and economically stable place compared to today's Iraq, and Kuwait's government felt assured that the international community would not allow it to come to harm until the invasion actually started to happen.

Then there are Indians who go to known conflict zones (Iraq 2010+, for example) precisely because they want to earn the extra hazard pay. Living and working in those places, they have every opportunity to become aware of what's going on and likely to happen, even if they weren't (for some reason) aware before they arrived. If they insist on staying there as a completely predictable catastrophe unfolds, what can anyone else do? Some construction workers trapped in Mosul have complained that they "didn't receive salary for five months"... but their solution was to STAY, not try to leave... until their employers simply piled into every available transport and fled, leaving them at the tender mercies of ISIS. Likewise, some Nurses are now reportedly insisting that the GOI should not merely bring them home from cities threatened or occupied by ISIS, but arrange for them to get equally remunerative jobs in other, safer Gulf countries!

Yes, these are economically underprivileged citizens of India who went overseas to try and earn a better living than they could at home... but isn't there SOME degree of personal responsibility involved in making the choices they do? I mean, an Indian grad student who goes to New York has every RIGHT to get himself a cheap rental apartment in the South Bronx (though just about everyone would advise him against it, many actually do). The Indian grad student is free to make the economic choice to save money in this fashion, ignore the police sirens and nightly gunfire and discarded hypodermic syringes that crunch under his foot every day on his way to the subway. But if something bad happens to the student while living there, what is the *burden of responsibility* that the GOI bears? Yes, the GOI/embassy may try to offer special services to the student or his family in case of a tragedy... but do they do so as a matter of trying their best to help an Indian citizen out, or as a matter of officially mandated responsibility? Of course, it's not the same situation as in Iraq, but for all overseas Indians vs. Indian embassy/consular staff, the basic principle of whose responsibility begins and ends where needs to be articulated clearly.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 25 Jun 2014 20:28

I think the govt has to reach out to the Bohra muslim leadership in India. That is because they have historically had a presence in Shia holy sites in Iraq. While that does not mean automatically that they will be able to reach out to those holding the Indians, captive they will still have some sources in the provinces currently held by the ISIS rebels. All this talk in official circles about they being in talks with sources having access to the captors may not mean much.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 25 Jun 2014 20:58

But if something bad happens to the student while living there, what is the *burden of responsibility* that the GOI bears? Yes, the GOI/embassy may try to offer special services to the student or his family in case of a tragedy... but do they do so as a matter of trying their best to help an Indian citizen out, or as a matter of officially mandated responsibility? Of course, it's not the same situation as in Iraq, but for all overseas Indians vs. Indian embassy/consular staff, the basic principle of whose responsibility begins and ends where needs to be articulated clearly.

IMO the answer differs depending on whether India is a banana republic slum or a major nation. The former has no regard for the lives or wellbeing of its citizens, and its Mantris and Babus consider themselves to be ****'s gift to humanity, waay above all the sweaty masses, with a born right to strut around with a retinue of Ayahs and Chaprassis attending to and anticipating their every wish. When trouble strikes, they look out for their own ~~brains~~ (oiseules) first. For all the rest, they say:

Waat to do? V r like this onlee! It is naat my jaab yaar!

The latter expects its Mantris and Officials to be smart, intelligent, have initiative and focus, and be aware of what is going on. It expects them to LOOK OUT for the citizens wherever they are in the world. Being in Consulates, Embassies etc it IS their job to act on intel, anticipate events, and convey timely warnings and support to the extent possible.

The extent possible demonstrates the quality of the nation and its officialdom. It defines that value of the passport, and the statement on the front page: The President/Grand Sultan requests everyone to extend all help and courtesy to the bearer of this passport.

If you consider why the captain of a ship that gets hit by a surprise missile, is court-martialed in some countries, u may see the difference. There is accountability, the expectation that if u r paid to be in a position 4 the guvrmand, that means that u r the nation's representative on site, and anything that affects ur nation's interest IS ur job.

They also expect their embassy ppl to shake their but1s to get their ppl out of trouble. The WHY one got into trouble can be figured out later, and there, sure, I would agree with most of what you pointed out.
So... if these aam coolies etc were supposed to be smart enough to anticipate that one day the Al Qaeda was going to come in, helped by the USA, and proceed to crucify everyone who was not their kissing coujin, shouldn't the Indian embassy ppl also have been able to figure that out and WARN the ppl to get out?

After the warning goes unheeded, yes, I agree that the embassy person's life is nearly as valuable as that of the citizen stuck in an avoidable trouble-spot. But you think the Indian embassy even has a clue where its citizens are, or even how many there are? You think they give a pakistan about it? Trouble is, for most of us who have seen their standard MO, the answer is

I would like to see a few ISIS-type beheadings (figuratively of course) of prominent Phoren Sarbhij entities, to set an example and convey the message that entry into the Eye Eph Ess is not all about cocktail parties and tuxedos: one has to get out there and do the job with a clear head, or one will have no head.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 25 Jun 2014 21:46

UB, unfortunately we are something in between. We simply don't (yet) have the clout to be major-enough nation that ISIS will shake in its boots and offer biryani/safe passage to every Indian citizen it encounters, but we don't (hopefully) abandon Indian citizens overseas to their fates if at all possible.

As far as warning the people to get out... yes of course, and I thought the Indian embassy in Baghdad had done so. Didn't they, to the best of their capacity? If not, there has been deadly serious dereliction of duty.

Truth is, all that the GOI can do today is make the best of a bad situation. If it does less than that, then it is rightly remiss and the concerned IFS babus should be flayed alive for it. But the expectations have to be reasonable too. People went from India to Iraq for many reasons. It is possible the poor construction workers in Mosul who hadn't been paid in five months saw the warning signs, but simply did not have the money for a bus ride to safer Southern zones (or any options for survival once they got there). OTOH the Nurses in Anbar who are (if indeed they are) insisting that GOI must get them jobs in other Gulf countries if they leave Iraq should be told "Mol, this is the last plane out, you getting in or not?"

In the domestic political arena the thing is already playing out as a reductionist "Guvrmand FAILED!" exhibit of mass-hysteria nautanki, being spun up for obvious cynical reasons. To what extent that is actually true should be uncovered by investigation. For a brand-new guvrmand the only reasonable metric of assessment is (1) did they make the best of a situation that was already SNAFU by the time they took office (2) did they investigate and effectively punish the babus who did not do what they were meant to do (3) have they evolved, and articulated to overseas Indians, a systematic fire-drill plan that outlines how *exactly* they will respond when such situations arise in the future, and how overseas Indians are expected to cooperate for best results.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Jun 2014 22:01

Some gulf employers also condiscate passports . Qatar has the infamous Khalifa system.
the ex ongc and reliance engg types are treated well by the oil cos..its the blue collar workers who get treated badly.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 25 Jun 2014 23:35

These Sunni ISIS are pure animals.
NSFW warning for isalm's merciful Beheading amdist the Chant of All-Ham Dho-Kill Ha!!

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=9f5_1403218995

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 26 Jun 2014 01:15

Prem Ji, frankly when have you seen animals behaving like this? I don't watch these videos, but i assume that is of the 3 Star Gen Abu Wahid in Mosul carried out in Public. This is pretty much par for the course Islamic standard that has been employed for ages. Many Indic icons like Tipu, Timur, Khilji's and even Akbar did a lot worse. No point blaming ISIS, AQ, LeT, Taliban, Imams and Mullahs. Time to make accessory to this barbarism are those that refuse to put the blame on the doctrine that propels these stalwarts and groups to do what they do. This is a doctrine that runs on fear. Fear is the fuel that it spreads by. Cowards only embrace and support in some way a doctrine based on fear and intimidation. Need to get the capital to make these cowards fear what they do and support.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Jun 2014 03:20

OTOH the Nurses in Anbar who are (if indeed they are) insisting that GOI must get them jobs in other Gulf countries if they leave Iraq

I agree that THAT is going way overboard. Getting out with life and clothes on one's musharraf is about all that can be expected in these situations unless one is very lucky/has enormous resources.
If u hadn't noticed... the deal with the nurses is that they are (apparently) mostly Xtian. Not a good prospect there right now. Yes, all I would expect is a "last bus out" offering at least a perch on the roof.

Regarding warnings from Embassy: ur guess is as good as mine: which is that they were sitting with their thumbs up the usual places, and had no clue at all. Can't blame them that much: Its like trying to decide in the middle of a blinding storm that this is not a thunderstorm but a hurricane. You have to have perspective, and that takes some attentive soul in Dilli.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 Jun 2014 05:24

ISI have already started tickling up the Lebanese and Jordanians according to CNN,which will increase sectarian tension in both countries.If the intl. community/UN fail to combat this insidious terror.Utter chaos will ensue and the state of Israel will be under severe stress.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jun 2014 05:37

The ISIS org chart and Modus Operandi resembles the Mukhabarat setup by the early Arab Muslims.

----
Philip dont they know that?

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 26 Jun 2014 05:49

The Jordanian army is no pushover. They will be backed by US forces if needed.

But if there is an 'arab spring' in Jordan against the King, then all bets are off

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Jun 2014 06:54

and there will be

faith and piety will spread like water into a sponge into adjacent areas.
the king lives the good life while his mostly bedouin subjects scratch a living in the harsh sands...that can always be pointed out.
I think most of Muhammad's initial army were bedouin too....from the western province of what is todays KSA.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 26 Jun 2014 07:18

Singha wrote:~~Some~~ A great majority of gulf employers, even MNCs, also confiscate SDREs' passports . Qatar has the infamous Khalifa system.
the ex ongc and reliance engg types are mostly treated well by the oil cos..its the blue collar workers who get treated badly.

There, it's better now - the blue font stuff is my addition.

And the first thing you learn in Gelf is to pretend you don't see the nameless blue-collar workers (mostly your own countrymen) working outdoors at 52 degree C, AFTER eight hours on the road 'coz the labor camps are a few cents cheaper in the outback.

To be fair, the first wave expats from the '70s said we Indians used to exploit the local labor laws and visa sponsorships and screw the employers (well, at least in the UAE) and this is what made even major MNCs confiscate passports of Indians. Of course they won't dare do this to Goras and Arabs. Passports of Pakis, Filipinos and BDs are confiscated too.

Further exhibits;
Goat Days (No laughing matter)
Khaddama (based on Saudi's Khadimas)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jun 2014 07:54

ramana wrote:Looks like Sunni Iraq and Shia Iraq is on its way along with Kurdistan Autonomous Region to assuage Turkish sensitivity.

Syria has two teams warring.
1) Syria led by Assad +Iran+Russia+Hezbollah from Lebanon Versus
2) Syrian rebels+ISIS+Nusra+Qatar+KSA+USA

The Syrian checkmate should have blowback on the supporters. Instead ISIS went for Iraq.
So we have Syria, Lebanon, Iraq as one big sinkhole.
Iraq is defacto partitioned per Peters map.
Jordan already has 25% refugees from Syria and has to be the next domino.

We are seeing ISLAM: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Arabia, Mediterranean.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Jun 2014 08:08

The ISIS org chart and Modus Operandi resembles the Mukhabarat setup by the early Arab Muslims.

Thanks! That jolted my memory and I remembered the name of the website that used to bark for KHILAFAT FOR PAKISTAN. Used to show pretty-much the same map as the black-painted one, but as a quilt.

Al Muhajirroun (or was it Al Mujahirroun?)

Doesn't that mean The Expats/Transplants? It was a site out of Bilayatstan (where else?) back circa 1999. Got taken down shortly before the DAWA website started showing pictures of baskets of severed body parts outside the "court" in Pakiban-occupied Kabul. I tell you, there is a straight link from there to the ISIS/ISIL. OK, so they know how to keep accounts on EXCEL - big deal, every Paki/British bookie knows much more sophisticated math.

Isn't it remarkable that there is a non-state goon gang invading a member of the UN and committing genocide, and there is not a peep out of the UNSC?? Time to dissolve the UN, esp. the SC.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Jun 2014 08:48

thank you Anand K.

yet still the urge to get money to build a big tiled roof home with wooden verandah pillars exists, thats why people go. for every bad case, successful role models who could build villas and make it big are found as a crutch. even super-big like yusuf ali.

I have seen a lot of large scale neighbourhood shops are owned by keralites in blr. maybe these folks made some money in gulf before r2i and starting their shops. for some reason they often use the name "aishwarya stores"

imo some indians have managed to get into arab power structures and act as intermediaries to get that investment into india and make profits.
even the founder of sobha builders pnc menon made his initial capital in the gulf I think. he has lot of NRI clients from gulf also.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Jun 2014 08:53

Singha wrote:thank you Anand K.

yet still the urge to get money to build a big tiled roof home with wooden verandah pillars exists, thats why people go. for every bad case, successful role models who could build villas and make it big are found as a crutch.

I have seen a lot of large scale neighbourhood shops are owned by keralites in blr. maybe these folks made some money in gulf before r2i and starting their shops. for some reason they often use the name "aishwarya stores"

Do not be fooled.

They are all overwhelmingly people from a particular community onlee and only employ from that particular community

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Jun 2014 08:57

I know. friday afternoons they are all closed

some of the labour camps look really bad. some look at par with shenzhen dorms.

http://nkelber.com/engl278w/wp-content/ ... bodies.jpg
http://i711.photobucket.com/albums/ww11 ... e005-1.jpg

some have so called model camps where conditions are better..just like CEO chats the ceo drops by in the dining hall to feel the pulse...
http://www.emirates247.com/business/ene ... 2-1.431038

While driving towards the Sonapur Camp, laundry and waste pile ups could be visible in some of the other congested and cramped labour camps, once you reach the Enoc/Eppco labour accommodation area, you are entering a different world all together. Once you go inside the camp with 268 rooms in Sonapur, the differences are more remarkable. Each room in Enoc camp houses only four employees, there are no bunker beds that cuddle together eight to ten employees in some of the worst camps visited by this reporter. There are separate bathrooms, free Internet, a common catering facility, kitchen to prepare tea or coffee and even a gymnasium and state of the art laundry that freely washes the workers uniforms.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Jun 2014 10:22

Isn't it interesting that in all this bloodshed, Arab Spring, Sunnis marching on Shias, Taliban style execution, despot rulers getting 72 , Army Generals Coup etc., KSA and its royal family sits comfortably on its ass and no one and not even Shia Iran dares indulge in any trouble in the kingdom. It is still heaven compared to what is happening in other non-Royal run countries of the ME.
The last group which tried such antics was AQ and we never heard of them afterwards inside KSA. Somehow even the death hug of Great Satan hasn't killed these harbinger of Saudi Islam and conflicts across world.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 26 Jun 2014 11:20

ramana wrote:
ramana wrote:Looks like Sunni Iraq and Shia Iraq is on its way along with Kurdistan Autonomous Region to assuage Turkish sensitivity.

Syria has two teams warring.
1) Syria led by Assad +Iran+Russia+Hezbollah from Lebanon Versus
2) Syrian rebels+ISIS+Nusra+Qatar+KSA+USA

The Syrian checkmate should have blowback on the supporters. Instead ISIS went for Iraq.
So we have Syria, Lebanon, Iraq as one big sinkhole.
Iraq is defacto partitioned per Peters map.
Jordan already has 25% refugees from Syria and has to be the next domino.

We are seeing ISLAM: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Arabia, Mediterranean.

Ramana,

ISIS is the classic Kabila (an excellent descriptive term for this phenomenon, originated by you in the first place!)

That is what I think Peters does not understand when he makes "maps". Maps imply boundaries that are relatively steady, containing nation-state-like structures that are relatively stable. The maps of Sykes-Picot, created at a time of much greater power differential, are being blown away in every direction. Why will the maps of Peters (even if achieved) last even a fraction as long?

When ISIS stops moving and starts governing, levying taxes, making rules, enmeshing its political interests with a static hierarchy of social and economic classes... then it stops being a kabila and becomes a caliphate. Then it is easy prey for the next kabila. Just as Baghdad was for the Mongols; just as establishment Pakis are for the Taliban.

Any US calculations that fail to see this dynamic, and instead try to superimpose Westphalian frameworks onto the ME, are doomed. Including those of Mr. Peters.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Jun 2014 11:29

NYT

Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the head of the Quds Force, has paid at least two visits to Iraq to help Iraqi military advisers plot strategy. And Iranian transport planes have been making twice-daily flights to Baghdad with military equipment and supplies, 70 tons per flight, for the Iraqi forces.

“It’s a substantial amount,” said a senior American official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was discussing classified reports. “It’s not necessarily heavy weaponry, but it is not just light arms and ammunition.”
.....
In the weeks since ISIS swept across northern Iraq, the United States has increased its surveillance flights over Iraq and is now flying about 30 to 35 missions a day. The flights include piloted aircraft, such as F-18s and P-3 surveillance planes, as well as drones.

Mounting its own effort, according to American officials, Iran has set up a special control center at Rasheed Air Base in Baghdad and is flying a small fleet of Ababil surveillance drones over Iraq.
...
An Iranian signals intelligence unit has also been deployed at the airfield to intercept electronic communications between ISIS fighters and commanders, said another American official, who, like the others, spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The airfield may be the first former American base in Iraq to be used for Iranian operations. American forces used it after they invaded Iraq in 2003, and during the early phase of the occupation, an aviation squadron was based there, calling it Camp Redcatcher.

“The Iranians are playing in a big way in Iraq,” Senator Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, the ranking Republican on the Intelligence Committee, said in an interview.

While Iran has not sent large numbers of troops into Iraq, as many as 10 divisions of Iranian and Quds Force troops are massed on the Iran-Iraq border, ready to come to Mr. Maliki’s aid if the Iraqi capital is imperiled or Shiite shrines in cities like Samarra are seriously threatened, American officials said.

Some officials said that about two dozen Iranian aircraft had been stationed in western Iran for possible operations over Iraq.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Jun 2014 14:44

helping out its enemy, dunno for what though

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 26 Jun 2014 15:12

Singha wrote:imo some indians have managed to get into arab power structures and act as intermediaries to get that investment into india and make profits.
even the founder of sobha builders pnc menon made his initial capital in the gulf I think. he has lot of NRI clients from gulf also.

Yusuf Ali (LuLu), Mohammad Ali (Galfar), Ravi Pillai (RP Group), Sunny Varkey (Varkey's school), P.N.C. Menon (Sobha builders), Rashid Ahmad (Malabar Gold), Dr. Azad Mooppan (Aster Healthcare) are other major names. And these are the high profile ones with ties all the way up the power pyramids - there are dozens of other magnates, albeit not at this stratospheric level. PS: Apparently some like Yusuf Ali and Varkey are very close to the Emirs and Sheikhs too. Mohammed Ali OTOH is now in jail after a major anti-graft operation in Oman which landed many senior Arabs in jail.

Now most of these men are plain-vanilla mixed-bag businessmen, but it's the very low profile nameless "traders" and old school intermediaries who are neck-deep in Do Numbri, way back from the COFEPOSA-Sone ki Biscoot-Sony Transistor days. AFAIK the Gujarati Bohras had been there first and have a strong hold in hardware, machinery & tools, and instruments. The Pathan Mafia of course had the smuggling and crime monopoly, now them Pathans are a sorry lot reeking of Haleem and sweat and drooling at exposed female flesh. Indians and Pakis are on top of the Hawala, flesh trade and perishable goods apparently. For some time there was a ban on grain exports to the Gelf and many a Mallu operator made a fortune here. These types are generally the anchor-tenants of the Black Economy and the whole Criminal/Terrorist funding edifice. But of course even TFTAs like HSBC (and BCCI during it's heyday) also lend a hand in washing and clearing dirty money.

The Gelf...... six years working in and around there and still haven't wrapped my head around the whole thing.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Jun 2014 16:30

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/363 ... tlets.html

Malabar Gold to open 100 outlets in 2014
Bangalore, Oct 16, 2013, DHNS:
Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah launches CSR activities of Malabar Gold and Diamonds in Bangalore on Thursday. DH Photo
Gems and jewellery retailer Malabar Gold & Diamonds will open 100 new outlets next year as part of expanding beyond its traditional Indian and West Asian turfs.

Malabar Group Co-Chairman P A Ibrahim Haji said on the occasion of the company announcing its CSR activities on Thursday that the new stores would be opened in Singapore, Ahmedabad, Kolkata and Colombo within a month.

Where are they getting their money from?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Jun 2014 17:00

all these kerala based gold chains have driven the locals like bheemas and krishnaiah chetty into a corner here. they seem to have inexhaustable funds to set up swank showrooms.

Anand K , keep it coming your writeups/rants, oozes with hard fought exp...worth reading for all.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jun 2014 19:29

Anand K wrote:
Singha wrote:imo some indians have managed to get into arab power structures and act as intermediaries to get that investment into india and make profits.
even the founder of sobha builders pnc menon made his initial capital in the gulf I think. he has lot of NRI clients from gulf also.
Yusuf Ali (LuLu), Mohammad Ali (Galfar), Ravi Pillai (RP Group), Sunny Varkey (Varkey's school), P.N.C. Menon (Sobha builders), Rashid Ahmad (Malabar Gold), Dr. Azad Mooppan (Aster Healthcare) are other major names. And these are the high profile ones with ties all the way up the power pyramids - there are dozens of other magnates, albeit not at this stratospheric level. PS: Apparently some like Yusuf Ali and Varkey are very close to the Emirs and Sheikhs too. Mohammed Ali OTOH is now in jail after a major anti-graft operation in Oman which landed many senior Arabs in jail.

Now most of these men are plain-vanilla mixed-bag businessmen, but it's the very low profile nameless "traders" and old school intermediaries who are neck-deep in Do Numbri, way back from the COFEPOSA-Sone ki Biscoot-Sony Transistor days. AFAIK the Gujarati Bohras had been there first and have a strong hold in hardware, machinery & tools, and instruments. The Pathan Mafia of course had the smuggling and crime monopoly, now them Pathans are a sorry lot reeking of Haleem and sweat and drooling at exposed female flesh. Indians and Pakis are on top of the Hawala, flesh trade and perishable goods apparently. For some time there was a ban on grain exports to the Gelf and many a Mallu operator made a fortune here. These types are generally the anchor-tenants of the Black Economy and the whole Criminal/Terrorist funding edifice. But of course even TFTAs like HSBC (and BCCI during it's heyday) also lend a hand in washing and clearing dirty money.

The Gelf...... six years working in and around there and still haven't wrapped my head around the whole thing.

Brilliant. This is the type ok gnawlidg(gnaw for it eats you alive!) I wanted from you. Keep up the good work.. I hope to see a monogprah on this one of these days. Do you want a data collection thread in GDF for this effort?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jun 2014 20:08

Rudradev wrote:.....
Ramana,

ISIS is the classic Kabila (an excellent descriptive term for this phenomenon, originated by you in the first place!)

That is what I think Peters does not understand when he makes "maps". Maps imply boundaries that are relatively steady, containing nation-state-like structures that are relatively stable. The maps of Sykes-Picot, created at a time of much greater power differential, are being blown away in every direction. Why will the maps of Peters (even if achieved) last even a fraction as long?

When ISIS stops moving and starts governing, levying taxes, making rules, enmeshing its political interests with a static hierarchy of social and economic classes... then it stops being a kabila and becomes a caliphate. Then it is easy prey for the next kabila. Just as Baghdad was for the Mongols; just as establishment Pakis are for the Taliban.

Any US calculations that fail to see this dynamic, and instead try to superimpose Westphalian frameworks onto the ME, are doomed. Including those of Mr. Peters.

I think we have hit upon the hamartia or "fatal flaw" of Islamic nation states. They are a "state in being" like Tellis "force in being". The minute they formalize the state they decay and fail.
The power of political Islam is its razakars sallying forth from mobile kabilas and sowing terror and destruction. The minute they strike camp to make it easy for wealth (of all sorts Zan, Zameer etc.) extraction, they lose their uniqueness and become same as all other rotten empires. Only the decay period (RC is large) is large due to force of Islam (apostasy, mullah backed political authority, und so weiter).
Now I get why it took 250 years after losing battle of Vienna for the Ottoman Turks to lose their Empire in WWI.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Jun 2014 20:13

And why the ottoman sultanate lasted a massive 600 years. A lot more than peer empires.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 26 Jun 2014 20:25

Anand K wrote:Mohammed Ali OTOH is now in jail after a major anti-graft operation in Oman which landed many senior Arabs in jail.

Anand, quick clarification. Md. Ali apparently fled the coup. He has that high connections.

Also, I have heard an urban legend that Mr. Yusuf Ali was originally front man for MGR/ Jayalalitha- The name Lulu Hypermarkets comes from Amma's pet name.

Also, Mr. PNC Menon made his money relatively clean beyond minimal practices. He made his money through his contacts with Oman government furnishing their palaces initially.

P.S. on a personal note also 6 years in Gelf and still confused. From your post it seems that you are from the same country. What about a mini ifftar-jirga in the Holy Month of Ramadan.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jun 2014 21:30

I tweeted the kabila theory in a series of 8 tweets.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 26 Jun 2014 22:52

So the Standard operating procedure is very similar to Wraiths, Keep moving for new feeding grounds and when no life from left to feed on then turn the fangs on themselves.
Pretty Wraith Pictures

https://www.google.com/images?q=wraith& ... d=0CCoQsAQ

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 27 Jun 2014 01:02

'Thank God for the Saudis': ISIS, Iraq, and the Lessons of Blowback
http://www.theatlantic.com/internationa ... ar/373181/

“Thank God for the Saudis and Prince Bandar,” John McCain told CNN’s Candy Crowley in January 2014. “Thank God for the Saudis and Prince Bandar, and for our Qatari friends,” the senator said once again a month later, at the Munich Security Conference.McCain was praising Prince Bandar bin Sultan, then the head of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence services and a former ambassador to the United States, for supporting forces fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. McCain and Senator Lindsey Graham had previously met with Bandar to encourage the Saudis to arm Syrian rebel forces.But shortly after McCain’s Munich comments, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah relieved Bandar of his Syrian covert-action portfolio, which was then transferred to Saudi Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. By mid-April, just two weeks after President Obama met with King Abdullah on March 28, Bandar had also been removed from his position as head of Saudi intelligence—according to official government statements, at “his own request.” Sources close to the royal court told me that, in fact, the king fired Bandar over his handling of the kingdom’s Syria policy and other simmering tensions, after initially refusing to accept Bandar’s offers to resign. (Bandar retains his title as secretary-general of the king’s National Security Council.)Qatar’s military and economic largesse has made its way to Jabhat al-Nusra, to the point that a senior Qatari official told me he can identify al-Nusra commanders by the blocks they control in various Syrian cities. But ISIS is another matter. As one senior Qatari official stated, “ISIS has been a Saudi project.”

ISIS, in fact, may have been a major part of Bandar’s covert-ops strategy in Syria. The Saudi government, for its part, has denied allegations, including claims made by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, that it has directly supported ISIS. But there are also signs that the kingdom recently shifted its assistance—whether direct or indirect—away from extremist factions in Syria and toward more moderate opposition groups.“ISIS has been a Saudi project,” one Qatari official said.The United States, France, and Turkey have long sought to support the weak and disorganized FSA, and to secure commitments from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to do the same. When Mohammed bin Nayef took the Syrian file from Bandar in February, the Saudi government appeared to finally be endorsing this strategy. As The Washington Post’s David Ignatius wrote at the time, “Prince Mohammed’s new oversight role reflects the increasing concern in Saudi Arabia and other neighboring countries about al-Qaeda’s growing power within the Syrian opposition.” Senior White House officials have refused to discuss the question of any particular Saudi officials aiding ISIS and have not commented on Bandar’s departure. But they have emphasized that Saudi Arabia is now both supporting moderate Syrian rebels and helping coordinate regional policies to deal with an ascendant ISIS threat.Like elements of the mujahideen, which benefited from U.S. financial and military support during the Soviet war in Afghanistan and then later turned on the West in the form of al-Qaeda, ISIS achieved scale and consequence through Saudi support, only to now pose a grave threat to the kingdom and the region. It’s this concern about blowback that has motivated Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Martin Dempsey and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel to encourage restraint in arming Syrian rebels. President Obama has so far heeded these warnings. John McCain’s desire to help rebel forces toss off a brutal dictator and fight for a more just and inclusive Syria is admirable. But as has been proven repeatedly in the Middle East, ousting strongmen doesn’t necessarily produce more favorable successor governments. Embracing figures like Bandar, who may have tried to achieve his objectives in Syria by building a monster, isn't worth it

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 27 Jun 2014 01:48

The Kabila concept morphs to a State of Being in relative governing Peace vs State of Being in War. The moment a violent Kabila starts governing, levying tax etc, another greener than thou can doctrinally justify greater violence and evoke support from the greater population to upturn the state of governing peace. That forces either the governing Kabila to curb all dissent with great violence, completely squash all basic human rights like we see in Barbaria, Libya, Egypt, Saddams Iraq etc. The doctrinal basics for justification of extreme violence are all there in place. Thus without the very heavy governing hand, that is fundamentally at all odds with civilization there is bound to be criticism of the hard governing hand. The rulers like Saddam detested and knew well that Western objections will unleash the Kabilas that would perpetuate the state of war. Same way Shitistan cannot declare it's own fundamentals on par with India..it would immediately create a vacuum where the doctrine would thrust masses into the violent kabila camp at State of War. The Taliban, AQ are creations of the desire of civilized nations to curb the heavy hand that Saddam kinds needed to play to keep these doctrinally approved violent breeds at bay.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 27 Jun 2014 02:19

Islamic Parasitic Paradox: State of Equilibrium is also the State of Vaccuum (burst and initiation) Simultanously Onlee! Humm Banne Tumm Banne Ik Dooje Ke Liye .

Wah Faithfooleh Wah,
Tainu Aaye Na Sukh Da Sah
Green, Greener, Greenest Waddha Shah
Terri Qismat Which, Rubb Ney likhya Ghaa (grass)
Galleh Cuttan Dhi Subh nu Chah
Jey Koye hai Tainu Sharam, Hayya
Indian Ocean which Dubb Ke Marr Jaa!

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 27 Jun 2014 03:51

Jhujar wrote:So the Standard operating procedure is very similar to Wraiths, Keep moving for new feeding grounds and when no life from left to feed on then turn the fangs on themselves.
Pretty Wraith Pictures

https://www.google.com/images?q=wraith& ... d=0CCoQsAQ

You need to get out of the house more.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jun 2014 07:18

yugoslavia seems to be another place where Tito and his successors managed to keep a lid on things until western and mussalman intervention in the power vacuum post USSR demise resulted in the mess.

the only peaceable split I know of in recent memory is the czech and slovak republics.

a whole lot of countries in the world are marginally viable in the economic sense.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 27 Jun 2014 07:49

Jhujar wrote:So the Standard operating procedure is very similar to Wraiths, Keep moving for new feeding grounds and when no life from left to feed on then turn the fangs on themselves.
Pretty Wraith Pictures

https://www.google.com/images?q=wraith& ... d=0CCoQsAQ

Nah - they Wraiths were very advanced beings who had no choice since humans were food source.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Jun 2014 09:10

Russian jets to aid the fight against Sunni rebels in Iraq – PM Maliki

Jets from Russia and Belarus will hopefully make a key difference in the fight against ISIS in Iraq, the country’s Prime Minister Nouri Maliki said. He expressed regrets over Iraq's contract with the US, saying their jets are taking too long to arrive.

"God willing within one week this force will be effective and will destroy the terrorists' dens," he told BBC Arabic.

Meanwhile, Maliki criticized the process of purchasing US jets as “long-winded,” adding that the radicals could have been repelled if Iraq had proper air defense.

"I'll be frank and say that we were deluded when we signed the contract [with the US]," Maliki said. "We should have sought to buy other jet fighters like British, French and Russian to secure the air cover for our forces; if we had air cover we would have averted what had happened," he went on.

Maliki said Iraq bought second-hand jet fighters from Russia and Belarus "that should arrive in Iraq in two or three days.”

The radical Sunni Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS or ISIL) has taken large parts of the country's north from the Shia government.

During the interview, the prime minister also confirmed that Syria was behind Tuesday’s air strikes that targeted Iraqi rebels, adding that he welcomed the move"They carry out their strikes and we carry out ours and the final winners are our two countries," he said.

On Tuesday, unidentified bombers launched an air strike on ISIS positions in the northern Iraqi city of al-Qaim.

Iraq’s own air force has also been carrying out attacks on insurgent strongholds over the past week.

On Monday, radical Sunni militants regained control over the northern city of Tal Afar and an airport. A day earlier, jihadists captured three new towns and two border crossings – one with Jordan and the other with Syria.

The ongoing offensive by ISIS is aimed at achieving total dominance in Iraq by radical Sunni militants.

Hundreds of Iraqi soldiers have been killed by the insurgents since June 9, when the Sunni militants started their offensive, according to Iraqi forces.

The United Nations says more than 1,000 people – mainly civilians – have been killed during the surge thus far.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Jun 2014 09:51

The Chaos In Iraq Is By DESIGN