Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 2010)

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Singha
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

leaving aside the self beating, isnt it true that
[a] immigration policies were not exactly 'friendly' to asians before 1970, when gate was opened, people from other parts
came in and started competing even without the benefit of schooling in US. now their kids are competing for sales and
wall street client facing roles that need a good grounding in local culture too.
prior to that , poor whites from italy, sweden, east europe and other parts were let in and shipped straight to
coal mines, urban ghettos, mid west farmlands and such because the prime areas and job opportunities in NE were
already occupied by the WASPs.
[c] the elite US univs till today give some weightage to being kids of alumni and moreover the already rich can
pay their way in - facts which prefer the rich old money.

It is true the initial generations of settlers were hard working and did all the bloody work needed to grab a continent
and wipe out the native indians. they may have been majority protestant - though I suppose the louisiana french
were catholic? they cleaned the slate and left their kids in positions of power.

from then on, for a couple hundred years it seems to be a case of the powerful elites exploiting the weak (slavery),
and organizing discrimination at various levels to subdue or eliminate potential competition.

gradually once that went away, there is no capability gap, only a wealth and connection gap and this is also wearing
thin now.

to an extent isnt that true of india also?

once upon a time only the products of st.stephens, welhams, lawrance school, mayo college, doon and such were
deemed fit to rule the land and take up the managerial posts in pvt cos, tea gardens, coffee plantations and such.

gradually more middle class schools with middle class pupils in metro cities, PSU steel cities , univ campuses
came to the fore as nurseries of excellence and "command track pilots". the DPS , DAVs of the world.

now even in smaller cities there are good schools whose students can compete with the best around.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

NYT - imo this thing has the potential to be exxon valdez ^ 10. let us see environmentally conscious and "green" they are now
that a huge monetary bill is sure.

Giant Plumes of Oil Found Forming Under Gulf of Mexico
Jim Wilson/The New York Times

Scientists are finding enormous oil plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, including one as large as 10 miles long, 3 miles wide and 300 feet thick in spots. The discovery is fresh evidence that the leak from the broken undersea well could be substantially worse than estimates that the government and BP have given.
Gulf Spill: Readers' Reports

Where have you seen the impact of the spill?
Submit Your Report

As the oil spill reaches land, we would like your updates and photographs of what you’re seeing. Photos are optional but recommended.

“There’s a shocking amount of oil in the deep water, relative to what you see in the surface water,” said Samantha Joye, a researcher at the University of Georgia who is involved in one of the first scientific missions to gather details about what is happening in the gulf. “There’s a tremendous amount of oil in multiple layers, three or four or five layers deep in the water column.”

The plumes are depleting the oxygen dissolved in the gulf, worrying scientists, who fear that the oxygen level could eventually fall so low as to kill off much of the sea life near the plumes.

Dr. Joye said the oxygen had already dropped 30 percent near some of the plumes in the month that the broken oil well had been flowing. “If you keep those kinds of rates up, you could draw the oxygen down to very low levels that are dangerous to animals in a couple of months,” she said Saturday. “That is alarming.”

The plumes were discovered by scientists from several universities working aboard the research vessel Pelican, which sailed from Cocodrie, La., on May 3 and has gathered extensive samples and information about the disaster in the gulf.

Scientists studying video of the gushing oil well have tentatively calculated that it could be flowing at a rate of 25,000 to 80,000 barrels of oil a day. The latter figure would be 3.4 million gallons a day. But the government, working from satellite images of the ocean surface, has calculated a flow rate of only 5,000 barrels a day.

BP has resisted entreaties from scientists that they be allowed to use sophisticated instruments at the ocean floor that would give a far more accurate picture of how much oil is really gushing from the well.

“The answer is no to that,” a BP spokesman, Tom Mueller, said on Saturday. “We’re not going to take any extra efforts now to calculate flow there at this point. It’s not relevant to the response effort, and it might even detract from the response effort.”

The undersea plumes may go a long way toward explaining the discrepancy between the flow estimates, suggesting that much of the oil emerging from the well could be lingering far below the sea surface.

The scientists on the Pelican mission, which is backed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the federal agency that monitors the health of the oceans, are not certain why that would be. They say they suspect the heavy use of chemical dispersants, which BP has injected into the stream of oil emerging from the well, may have broken the oil up into droplets too small to rise rapidly.

BP said Saturday at a briefing in Robert, La., that it had resumed undersea application of dispersants, after winning Environmental Protection Agency approval the day before.

“It appears that the application of the subsea dispersant is actually working,” Doug Suttles, BP’s chief operating officer for exploration and production, said Saturday. “The oil in the immediate vicinity of the well and the ships and rigs working in the area is diminished from previous observations.”

Many scientists had hoped the dispersants would cause oil droplets to spread so widely that they would be less of a problem in any one place. If it turns out that is not happening, the strategy could come under greater scrutiny. Dispersants have never been used in an oil leak of this size a mile under the ocean, and their effects at such depth are largely unknown.

Much about the situation below the water is unclear, and the scientists stressed that their results were preliminary. After the April 20 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon, they altered a previously scheduled research mission to focus on the effects of the leak.

Interviewed on Saturday by satellite phone, one researcher aboard the Pelican, Vernon Asper of the University of Southern Mississippi, said the shallowest oil plume the group had detected was at about 2,300 feet, while the deepest was near the seafloor at about 4,200 feet.

“We’re trying to map them, but it’s a tedious process,” Dr. Asper said. “Right now it looks like the oil is moving southwest, not all that rapidly.”

He said they had taken water samples from areas that oil had not yet reached, and would compare those with later samples to judge the impact on the chemistry and biology of the ocean.

While they have detected the plumes and their effects with several types of instruments, the researchers are still not sure about their density, nor do they have a very good fix on the dimensions.

Given their size, the plumes cannot possibly be made of pure oil, but more likely consist of fine droplets of oil suspended in a far greater quantity of water, Dr. Joye said. She added that in places, at least, the plumes might be the consistency of a thin salad dressing.

Dr. Joye is serving as a coordinator of the mission from her laboratory in Athens, Ga. Researchers from the University of Mississippi and the University of Southern Mississippi are aboard the boat taking samples and running instruments.

Dr. Joye said the findings about declining oxygen levels were especially worrisome, since oxygen is so slow to move from the surface of the ocean to the bottom. She suspects that oil-eating bacteria are consuming the oxygen at a feverish clip as they work to break down the plumes.

While the oxygen depletion so far is not enough to kill off sea life, the possibility looms that oxygen levels could fall so low as to create large dead zones, especially at the seafloor. “That’s the big worry,” said Ray Highsmith, head of the Mississippi center that sponsored the mission, known as the National Institute for Undersea Science and Technology.

The Pelican mission is due to end Sunday, but the scientists are seeking federal support to resume it soon.

“This is a new type of event, and it’s critically important that we really understand it, because of the incredible number of oil platforms not only in the Gulf of Mexico but all over the world now,” Dr. Highsmith said. “We need to know what these events are like, and what their outcomes can be, and what can be done to deal with the next one.”

Shaila Dewan contributed reporting from Robert, La.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by svinayak »

Sanjay M wrote:Bah, sounds like sour grapes. I think there is something to the idea of the Protestant Work Ethic (just as there is something to the idea of the Immigrant Work Ethic), and the fact is that the Brits created one of the most successful empires which spanned the globe.
All of these system is based on shutting out other countries and people out of the system. Brit created elaborate connections to build the empire and used the main advantage of the time - naval power and seperating one social group from the other. They made sure that Indians do not understand the west by controlling their immigration over the last 200 years.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

California, Pivot of the Great Recession A 'working' paper by Ashok Bardhan & Richard Walker.
So here we are again in the 2000s, living with the unvarnished truth: the quicker they rise, the harder they fall. It should give pause to all those who think that this downturn is but a mere bump in the continued journey of American economic dominance. Policy responses to the housing foreclosure crisis have nibbled at the problem but have left large issues unresolved. The lessons of the financial crisis have not led to any meaningful reform.

Recovery here, and in much of the country, is likely to be slow and prolonged, as is typically the case after a major financial debacle (Reinhart & Rogoff 2009). Bankruptcies of households, businesses and banks will continue to flourish in 2010;
bankrupts will not be spending much. Consumers with income will be paying down debt, suppressing aggregate consumption. Unemployment should remain high, with a largely jobless recovery. GDP growth is likely to be of the sputtering sort experienced by Japan since the 1990s. And the industrial base will continue to shrink in the face of global competition and domestic failure of investment and vision. It's not a pretty picture.

By contrast, the Asian economies are pulling out of the global crisis much more smartly than the United States. Their success proves, once again, certain truisms of economic policy if not of academic economics: the virtues of industrialization over financialization; rising income broadly distributed and development of the home market; savings and domestic investment; keeping a rein on aggregate debt; the role of the state and the public sector in economic affairs over pure free market ideology; and, above all else, the importance of strategic economic vision and effective policy.
Added: The paper also gives (yet another) summary of events and conditions that caused the financial collapse. It addresses it in the following categories:
1) The U.S.Financial Crisis
2) U.S. Housing & Urban Crisis
3) U.S. Industrial Woes {must read}
4) The Fiscal Crisis
Last edited by SwamyG on 17 May 2010 01:04, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by svinayak »

Singha wrote:NYT - imo this thing has the potential to be exxon valdez ^ 10. let us see environmentally conscious and "green" they are now
that a huge monetary bill is sure.

Giant Plumes of Oil Found Forming Under Gulf of Mexico
Jim Wilson/The New York Times
The publicity given to loss of income and lifestyle is to change the public opinion of the southern states to be environment freindly and support politically even if reluctant.
This is one of the best social engineering being done in US for a long time.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by svinayak »

Geithner Tries to Calm Nerves Over Europe's Uncertain Fate
New York Times - Jack Ewing, Brian Knowlton - ‎2 hours ago‎
FRANKFURT - Political leaders and central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic struggled over the weekend to persuade jittery investors that Europe would pull through its sovereign debt crisis, saying that it would be ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svPKT4z53No
Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has said that he believes the European economy is suffering its worst crisis since the second World War.

The failing Euro has surprised many analysts who thought the currency would rise in value after Greece received a $146bn bailout from the European Union and IMF to help solve its economic problems that were triggering the downfall of other Eurozone economies.

An economist told Al Jazeera that markets may be questioning the entire nature of the bailout, losing consumer confidence in the Euro.

Al Jazeera's Laurence Lee reports from London, UK's capital.Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has said that he believes the European economy is suffering its worst crisis since the second World War.

The failing Euro has surprised many analysts who thought the currency would rise in value after Greece received a $146bn bailout from the European Union and IMF to help solve its economic problems that were triggering the downfall of other Eurozone economies.

An economist told Al Jazeera that markets may be questioning the entire nature of the bailout, losing consumer confidence in the European currency.

Al Jazeera's Laurence Lee reports from London, UK's capital.Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has said that he believes the European economy is suffering its worst crisis since the second World War.

The falling Euro has surprised many analysts who thought the currency would rise in value after the European Union and IMF agreed to provide Greece with a $165bn bailout to help solve its economic problems that were triggering the downfall of other Eurozone economies.

An economist told Al Jazeera that markets may be questioning the entire nature of the bailout, losing consumer confidence in the European currency.

Al Jazeera's Laurence Lee reports from London, UK's capital.Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has said that he believes the European economy is suffering its worst crisis since the second World War.

The falling Euro has surprised many analysts who thought the currency would rise in value after the European Union and IMF had agreed to provide Greece with a $165bn bailout to help solve its economic problems that were triggering the downfall of other Eurozone economies.

An economist told Al Jazeera that markets may be questioning the entire nature of the bailout, losing consumer confidence in the European currency.

Al Jazeera's Laurence Lee reports from London, the UK capital.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Prem »

http://www.business24-7.ae/economy/inte ... 6-1.244468

China, India and Mideast new wealth centres
A tectonic shift in global wealth distribution to the East will make China, India and the Middle East the new money hubs.
By Sunil Kumar Singh
inheriting wealth from older generations.
Emerging markets – led by China, India and the Middle East – will be the main places where new wealth is generated in coming years.With fundamental private banking needs in these regions underserved today, wealth managers should be looking for ways to penetrate these markets.However, the Asia-Pacific region, led by China and India, will be where most new HNWIs are created, driven by the strength of the underlying economies and a strong entrepreneurial spirit, says the report.By 2011, the number of HNWIs in Asia/Pacific is expected to surpass those in Europe and North America, with China moving ahead of the UK in absolute number of HNWIs.By the end of 2011, nearly 3.6 million (33 per cent) of the global HNWIs are expected to live in the Asia-Pacific region, up from 2.6 million in 2008.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Emerging markets – led by China, India and the Middle East – will be the main places where new wealth is generated in coming years. With fundamental private banking needs in these regions underserved today, wealth managers should be looking for ways to penetrate these markets
Once these wealth managers penetrate those markets, the new found wealth of those people will begin to disappear :-?

Financial companies do not generate any wealth. They subtract from it by being middle men and skimming and/or scamming money in every business transaction. It eventually evolves to a point in the US where banks are bribing politicians and planting stooges in government to rig the system while they use the federal reserve to plunder the productive energies of society.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by shyam »

The key word is "private banking", which means the interests of a cartel.
With fundamental private banking needs in these regions underserved today, wealth managers should be looking for ways to penetrate these markets.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by shyam »

Acharya wrote:The publicity given to loss of income and lifestyle is to change the public opinion of the southern states to be environment freindly and support politically even if reluctant.
This is one of the best social engineering being done in US for a long time.
Another striking observation is the absence of massive protests against BP by the so called environmentalists. All we see is that by some fringe elements.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

One can only imagine what the reaction would be had it been Indian Oil Corporation instead of BP.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by svinayak »

Neshant wrote:One can only imagine what the reaction would be had it been Indian Oil Corporation instead of BP.
BP is part of the western establishment of the Anglo Saxon with Anglo aristocratic elite lords usually controlling the corporation. Hence there is no protest.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Paul »

I recall NPR Blurb in which BP ceo was passing the buck to Tranocean energy. BP is off the hook for this fiasco.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by paramu »

How can BP be off the hook? When Toyota had accelerator pedal issue, did people let it go off the hook because the pedal was supplied by some American vendor?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Pulikeshi »

^ Among other things BP has spent quite a bit of capital on "Green" initiatives.
There is a lot of criticism on how companies were putting too much investment
into questionable 'green' schemes with no return. Perhaps, that investment
in being a good corporate citizen is paying off. Something to think about.

Now, there may be other cynical facts that blow my theory to shreds....
I am not aware of any.

All that said, I do not believe BP is off the hook, just that they are given a bit more room to maneuver - benefits of good Karma (actions)!
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by paramu »

Pulikeshi wrote:Now, there may be other cynical facts that blow my theory to shreds....
I am not aware of any.

All that said, I do not believe BP is off the hook, just that they are given a bit more room to maneuver - benefits of good Karma (actions)!
Otherway to argue is that BP is one of the major sponsors of environmental activists. How can they go against their pay masters? :twisted:
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Paul Krugman

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/0 ... -wolfgang/
At this point, wages in Greece/Spain/Portugal/Latvia/Estonia etc. need to fall something like 20-30 percent relative to wages in Germany.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by abhishek_sharma »

MisIMFormation?

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/0 ... formation/
You see, what the report says is that there has been a fundamental deterioration in the fiscal outlook for advanced countries. Not only are they running up a lot of debt in the crisis, but — and much more important — they will emerge from the crisis with large structural deficits that weren’t there before. So spending cuts and tax increases loom.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Sanjay M »

abhishek_sharma wrote:Paul Krugman

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/0 ... -wolfgang/
At this point, wages in Greece/Spain/Portugal/Latvia/Estonia etc. need to fall something like 20-30 percent relative to wages in Germany.

Mwahaha - the NYT should have re-titled his blogpost, "Et Tu, Krugman?" :rotfl:

The Atlanticist Europhiles at the NYT had appointed Paul Krugman their economic-nobelist mascot, because of his penchant for passionate Bush-bashing. Now, Krugman is showing additional viewpoints that NYT might not like - his disaffection for the Euro. How long before NYT sours on Krugman? Look at some of the comments below his blogpost - it looks like some of the Atlanticist-Europhilic NYT readership are fretting over Krugman's plainspoken blunt comments about the Euro.

I'm laughing at the Atlanticist predicament, as they sit trapped like Nixon in "the bunker", while All The President's Men continue to desert the Euro-centrist camp. The folly of Atlanticist imperial overreach has created this Perfect Storm for them.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

US senate votes no on International Monetary Fund aid to troubled nations
Reuters
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 10:01 IST

Washington, DC: The United States would oppose International Monetary Fund bailout packages to countries that are not likely to repay them under a measure passed by the US senate on Monday.

The 94-0 vote came amid widespread concern that the United States is indirectly supporting a $40 billion IMF bailout approved for Greece earlier this month as that country struggles to rein in its debt.

A series of unprecedented US bailouts to stem the 2008-09 economic crisis has angered many Americans and lawmakers have said they are unwilling to bailout foreign countries, as well.

European leaders have asked the IMF to stand ready to provide up to $310 billion as part of a $1 trillion package of loans and guarantees to prevent Greece's financial woes from spreading to other euro zone countries with big budget deficits, such as Portugal and Spain.

The United States is the IMF's largest contributor and has veto power to block decisions, although has never used it. The United States'' stake in the IMF is roughly worth $54 billion in subscriptions.

The measure, proposed by Republican Senator John Cornyn, would direct the United States' executive director at the IMF to determine whether there is likely to be repayment of loans to countries whose public debt exceed their gross domestic product.

If the director determines that the loan is not likely to be repaid, the executive director would be obligated to vote against it.

The measure was added to a sweeping rewrite of financial regulations that could clear the Senate this week. It would have to be reconciled with a similar bill that passed the House of Representatives in December before president Barack Obama could sign it into law.

Senator Christopher Dodd, the Democrat overseeing the financial-reform bill, said he supported the IMF clause but added that it might be modified in coming weeks to satisfy others' concerns.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Senator Christopher Dodd, the Democrat overseeing the financial-reform bill, said he supported the IMF clause but added that it might be modified in coming weeks to satisfy others' concerns.
this guy is a stooge for banking interest.

he also sabotaged the audit-the-fed bill by watering it down.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

what's the lesson here?

don't play by the rules and default on your debts if they are too high ?

----

Argentina to Greece: You are $crewed

http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/14416/53/

Gregorio Lopez has a message for the Greek workers who are protesting deep cuts in salaries and pensions that come with an international, trillion-dollar rescue package: You're on your own.

Lopez and his fellow employees at the Lavalan wool-processing factory worked for a year without pay after Argentina's economy imploded in 2001 and the country defaulted on a record $95 billion debt.

But Greece is 10 times smaller than Argentina with 5 times higher debt. To make matters worse, Greece is under impression they are being 'saved' by the EU, when the EU is simply saving its own Banks (Dutch, German, French...) operating in Greece who in turn will finance Athens.

The Argentinians endured blows from riot police to keep creditors from carting off the equipment. In the end, they had to take over the factory and form a worker-run cooperative to save their jobs.

"It was really ugly," Lopez said. "We didn't have support from anybody — not the government, not even the union. ... Our only way out was to do it ourselves."

Argentina also had to go it alone after failing to make the deep, and somewhat insane cuts demanded by the International Monetary Fund to secure more loans. The country in 2001 was in many ways where Greece and other southern European nations are today, with its economy sputtering, companies failing and huge debts coming due. But instead of a trillion-dollar rescue to keep Greece from defaulting, Argentina got a cold shoulder from lender (which is why Argentina survived!).

While Europe's rescue package announced this week has at least postponed the worst — a domino effect of defaults across Europe that could drag down the euro and even break up the European Union (would be the best thing for the continent) — Argentina ran out of options. It defaulted and had to figure out how to rebuild its economy without outside help.

But in its isolation, the country boomed (as expected). Usually countries do prosper when EU/US banksters don't meddle. By boosting government spending to stimulate the economy, Argentina increased its GDP by more than 50 percent since 2003, and now plans to emerge from default by resolving the last of its bad debts. (how the heck did they do that and how could it work for India in say 1991 when the country was bankrupt ??? In economic isolation for 40+ years, India did not boom but almost went bust. Can anyone explain...)

President Cristina Fernandez says Argentina's experience shows that austerity measures are exactly the wrong medicine in a debt crisis, which is why Europe's rescue plan is "condemned to failure."

"You don't need to be an economist to know that if you reduce the flow of economic activity, you reduce even more the capacity to pay the debt," Fernandez said in a national address this week. "It's clear that you won't be able to pay what you're being lent."

An Argentian Govt. official has been quoted as saying "You sign with the IMF and you seal your future as a country.", however his statement was quickly removed from the Associated Press.

Even supporters of Europe's rescue package say Greece, Portugal, Spain and other overly indebted European countries now face years of wage cuts, increased taxes and living with less to have a chance of avoiding national bankruptcy. (if there ever was a time for these countries to stick Germany with the losses and quit the euro, now would be IT)
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

^^^^
when the EU is simply saving its own Banks (Dutch, German, French...) operating in Greece who in turn will finance Athens.
Exactly.

More here...Sovereign Debt Woes Spur ‘Lehman II’ Concern for Europe’s Banks
Europe’s banks had $2.29 trillion at risk in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain at the end of 2009, according to figures from the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. French banks had the most claims, at $843 billion, followed by Germany at $520 billion and the U.K. at $227 billion.
One or more European economies may default on their debt and Greece and other “laggards” in the euro area may have to abandon the common currency in the next few years to spur their economies, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said in an interview on Bloomberg Television on May 12.
Some analysts say the threat to Europe’s banks is overstated and that the EU’s rescue package will eventually bolster confidence. There’s little evidence so far that sovereign concerns are cutting into profits for most lenders. The 10 biggest banks by market value in the euro region earned almost $15 billion in the first quarter, company reports show.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by praksam »

‘There’s No Money Left,’ U.K. Minister Learns

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... cANRtpiiHw
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Chinmayanand »

Folks, i think Australian dollar is going to take a severe beating against the USD in the coming months. It may prove a delight to those who missed the bear rally in euro.
If folks could throw some light on the fundamental side in the Oz economy, it would be much appreciated.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

This is more relevant in GeoPolitics area, but as gurus monitor trend and look at the repercussions of the economic meltdown in the West and the ascension of the East, I thought of posting it here.
The West Fails In Math Contest With Asian Powers
There is a cultural milieu at work here: cultures that are dynamic, protective and expansionist dominate intellectual systems as well as economic systems. As Europe slowly fades, Europeans can’t compete with Asians in intellectual sectors, bit by little bit. The US is made of many, many ethnic and religious groups. Many of these are crippled by cultural or religious beliefs or habits which makes it impossible to compete with hard-headed, scientific, modernistic Asians such as many Chinese.
Yup, the school is basically a training ground for the employees that will work in the least productive sector of the economy. I used to work in the RPI computer research technology labs. Everyone except for one lonely American student, was foreign. They came from either Eastern Europe or China and India. There were no others. This was over 10 years ago. I assume there are no Americans doing research in this lab today.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by svinayak »

Allow the financial system to collapse. Strong hands will rebuild. If gov. fails to allow a
depression, economics will force a collapse in time. Homeowners, banks, wall street, and business can rebuild. The pain will bring true green shoots with opportunies for all at lower prices. This mess needs to be washed down a toliet and soon.
Even the foreign investors
need to pay the price for silly investments that make no common sense. If the system is not allowed to fail and rebuild, the system will still fail. Now or later - the choice.
rohiths
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by rohiths »

Chinmayanand wrote:Folks, i think Australian dollar is going to take a severe beating against the USD in the coming months. It may prove a delight to those who missed the bear rally in euro.
If folks could throw some light on the fundamental side in the Oz economy, it would be much appreciated.
I disagree with this conclusion. Aussies are doing pretty well. They actually had a budget surplus. With quantitative easing in US, Europe and UK, I expect the Aussie dollar to go up or atleast stay put. It is higly unlikely it will take a beating.
vish_mulay
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by vish_mulay »

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ ... -vcpv.html
The Australian dollar has plunged almost 2 US cents in less than 18 hours, compounding a series of significant falls over the past days that have seen the value of the currency hit its lowest level since last September against its US counterpart - down more than 8 per cent since the start of the month.
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Peter Schiff's illustrated book is out entitled "How an economy grows an why it crashes".

Based on the Austrian school of economics, it exposes the fraud of keynesian economics that the federal reserve is trying hard to keep under wraps with secrecy. The storyline is simple enough for a caveman to follow. It starts off with 3 guys on an island where their only currency is fish.

Check out the fish on the dollar bill below.

Image
ldev
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ldev »

Angela Merkel certainly was not posturing a few days ago when she delivered a broadside against financial speculators. BaFin the German financial regulator has banned naked short selling of all Credit Default Swaps on any European Government Debt as well as the stock of the 10 largest German financial institutions.

Market chaos warning after German ban on shorting
Traders are predicting chaos on the world's second-largest government bond market after the German authorities on Tuesday announced a ban on all naked short-selling in European public debt, as well as shares in the country's 10 largest financial institutions.

The unprecedented step saw the euro sink to a four-year low after Germany said that from midnight shorting of credit default swaps of any European government would be banned. The prohibition is an attempt to counter speculators that Berlin believes are trying to destabilise the region's sovereign bond market.

Traders greeted the move by BaFin, the German regulator, with a mixture of anger and astonishment. One bond trader said he expected Wednesday's trading session to be one of the most volatile in living memory: "It will be complete chaos, I really don't know what the Germans think they are doing."


"Without the two-way flow the German market is likely to become utterly dysfunctional," said one London-based bond trader. "Nobody ever thought they'd do this in a million years and it raises the long-term question of who is now going to want to buy their debt."

Germany, like other European governments, must raise hundreds of billions of euros by selling new bonds, but banning short-selling could jeopardise demand.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by amol.p »

Who said jobs loss have stopped.....

Pfizer to close more plants, cut 6,000 jobs

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 945734.cms


Euro touches new four-year low in Asia


Germany's securities market regulator Tuesday slapped a ban on so-called naked short-selling in the shares of 10 financial institutions and euro zone government bonds, a move it hoped would put an end to severe fluctuations. "The German decision to ban short-selling suggested policymakers were deeply worried about threats to their banks from their lending to Greece,"

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mar ... 947747.cms
amol.p
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by amol.p »

Banks dump Greek debt on the ECB as eurozone flashes credit warnings

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... nings.html
Foreign holders of Greek and Portuguese debt have seized on emergency intervention by the European Central Bank to exit their positions, leaving eurozone taxpayers exposed to the credit risk.
The Bank of New York Mellon said its custodial data showed a "sharp acceleration" of net sales of debt from the two countries after the ECB began purchasing €16.5bn of bonds from southern Europe and Ireland in bid to halt market panic. "It rather suggests that investors leapt at the opportunity to clear their balance sheets of intolerable risk," said Neil Mellor, the bank’s currency strategist. "This leaves the ECB itself in an unpleasant situation since it now faces a deterioration in its own balance sheet."

...so its clear the bailout was for banks to get their money back & not for greece........


More homeowners choose to default on loans

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-h ... 2010-05-17
...{we had reports of sharp rise in sale of new homes in US}


Couple Commits Suicide Over Debt


http://www.informationclearinghouse.inf ... e25476.htm

Spanish debt auction comes close to failure

Spain came close to its first debt auction failure on Tuesday, highlighting the funding problems for weaker eurozone economies.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7cc4dcd4-629c ... ab49a.html
Singha
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

bond traders are unhappy because german move cuts into their potential earnings? I cant see them being unhappy for anything but their own bottomline.
VikramS
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by VikramS »

Singha:

The entire market hedging process gets disturbed.

Think of this way:

Customer A needs to sell bonds for country X.
Bond Trader B offers him a bid.
A and B agree on a price
Bond Trader B wants to hedge his exposure to the bond.
He is looking for some protection in the CDS market.
However the CDS market has very low liquidity and trading volume since naked CDS are banned.
Bond Trader B is stuck with big bid-ask spreads on the CDS.
So B offers A a lower price on his bonds.
A decided he does not want to sell his bonds at a lower price.
The bond-trading volume and liquidity goes down.

Here comes trader C who is being asked to reduce leverage by his risk management and wants to sell his position for country X. Trading volumes and liquidity are low and he is forced to accept the best bid. However the best bid is much worse than what the marks were for all the traders for the bond X. Suddenly everyone has now booked a loss, which might trigger more risk management selling. The cycle can spiral out of control.

No wonder Italy today announced that they will allow Banks not to mark their sovereign debt holdings to market. They expect a market disruption.

This is serious. EU is at a serious risk of unwinding. Monetary union without Fiscal controls can not work.
shyamd
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by shyamd »

I also heard germany banned short selling of bank shares. Probably because another round of writedowns are expected?
ldev
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ldev »

The entire market hedging process gets disturbed
As far as I can see, what has been banned is naked short selling. If you own the underlying debt and/or the stock in question and you want to hedge your cash investment, you can short sell - the caveat is that on settlement you must show up with the instrument you supposedly own.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

Hari garu: While some might not subscribe to the thoughts of America being the next Greece or what could. Well Paul O'Neill is still worried about the debt crisis. He says it is not "out of question" that America could follow Greece's path. He adds if America does not correct now, in 20 years America will be in a very bad situation. To top it off, he says American could become a "basket case". He is not the regular D&G guy, he was in the office before pulled/forced out.

That would be 2030. It would be little over than one generation of Indians after 1991. My estimate is India would see drastic benefits in 2 generations from 1991. That is around 2050. Amirkhan is still in the woods.

http://www.veoh.com/browse/videos/categ ... 61BsaTpEFB
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