Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion
Posted: 17 Mar 2020 03:58
Indias oil import bill could half from 100 billion to 50 billion dollars. Hopefully some those funds are used to build supercharges for battery operated cars and trucks.
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With travel restrictions and quarantines accelerating, energy analysts are scrambling to downgrade their oil demand forecasts.
Goldman Sachs now expects 2020 oil demand to shrink by 1.1 million barrels per day, hitting a low in March when demand could plunge by 8 million barrels.
Rystad Energy is even more pessimistic, calling for a plunge of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2020. That's up fourfold from the energy firm's previous call for a drop of just 600,000 barrels per day. April demand alone is likely to nosedive by 11 million barrels per day, Rystad said.
Jet fuel is the biggest problem, with airlines around the world scrapping flights and parking planes because of travel restrictions. Global commercial air traffic will drop by about 20% this year, Rystad predicted.
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One of the problems is that there is now so much oil around the world that it will be difficult to find places to put it all.
"We believe the velocity of the upcoming inventory builds is now certain to overwhelm the ability to fill storage," Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs, wrote to clients in a note.
i think the full stock pile is for 45 days ?Kati wrote:Bharat is stockpiling strategic petro reserve.... Very good move.
Saudi and Abu Dhabi are too willing to store their oil on Bharat soil.
Prem wrote:Crude oil is 22 $ a Barrel Today.
Neither the GoI or private industry is going to waste a single Rupee on battery EVs which don't represent even 1% of vehicles in India. Sure you'll see a few busses, trucks and cars for those who are hobbyist inclined. Hybrid vehicles followed by fuel cells are the future. Battery technology is dead end and GoI knows it full well.Rishirishi wrote:Indias oil import bill could half from 100 billion to 50 billion dollars. Hopefully some those funds are used to build supercharges for battery operated cars and trucks.
It's only going to last a few months as Russia can't afford to run a price war.nachiket wrote:Absolute insanity from SA and Russia. Demand is falling like crazy because of the coronavirus and these guys are still pumping out oil at full speed. Now they are saying that there may not be enough space to store all this oil that nobody is buying.
Oil collapses by another 24% to $20. It hasn't been this low since 2002
With travel restrictions and quarantines accelerating, energy analysts are scrambling to downgrade their oil demand forecasts.
Goldman Sachs now expects 2020 oil demand to shrink by 1.1 million barrels per day, hitting a low in March when demand could plunge by 8 million barrels.
Rystad Energy is even more pessimistic, calling for a plunge of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2020. That's up fourfold from the energy firm's previous call for a drop of just 600,000 barrels per day. April demand alone is likely to nosedive by 11 million barrels per day, Rystad said.
Jet fuel is the biggest problem, with airlines around the world scrapping flights and parking planes because of travel restrictions. Global commercial air traffic will drop by about 20% this year, Rystad predicted.
...
One of the problems is that there is now so much oil around the world that it will be difficult to find places to put it all.
"We believe the velocity of the upcoming inventory builds is now certain to overwhelm the ability to fill storage," Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs, wrote to clients in a note.
The recent hike in Excise duty on Petrol and diesel is meant to protect the cost differential so the EV transition doesn't get derailed.Mort Walker wrote:Neither the GoI or private industry is going to waste a single Rupee on battery EVs which don't represent even 1% of vehicles in India. Sure you'll see a few busses, trucks and cars for those who are hobbyist inclined. Hybrid vehicles followed by fuel cells are the future. Battery technology is dead end and GoI knows it full well.Rishirishi wrote:Indias oil import bill could half from 100 billion to 50 billion dollars. Hopefully some those funds are used to build supercharges for battery operated cars and trucks.
Battery is the new thing. With an oilprice of 45 dollar barrel, Battery operated vehicles cost half the price to operate. Soon battery will also match the combustion engine cars. It is all a matter of time. India needs to get rid of the fuel import problem.Mort Walker wrote:Neither the GoI or private industry is going to waste a single Rupee on battery EVs which don't represent even 1% of vehicles in India. Sure you'll see a few busses, trucks and cars for those who are hobbyist inclined. Hybrid vehicles followed by fuel cells are the future. Battery technology is dead end and GoI knows it full well.Rishirishi wrote:Indias oil import bill could half from 100 billion to 50 billion dollars. Hopefully some those funds are used to build supercharges for battery operated cars and trucks.
You seem to make the most innumerate (mathematically challenged) suggestions on this forum. You don't seem to understand power densities and cost. Battery EVs have only been successful because of cheap Chinese Lithium batteries costing $100/KWHr to manufacture. Everywhere else in the world they are much more costly. A large family car hybrid EV which gets at least 20 Km/liter is far cheaper to build and operate. Yes, it would have a battery, but no more than 15-20 KWHr capacity.Rishirishi wrote:Battery is the new thing. With an oilprice of 45 dollar barrel, Battery operated vehicles cost half the price to operate. Soon battery will also match the combustion engine cars. It is all a matter of time. India needs to get rid of the fuel import problem.Mort Walker wrote:
Neither the GoI or private industry is going to waste a single Rupee on battery EVs which don't represent even 1% of vehicles in India. Sure you'll see a few busses, trucks and cars for those who are hobbyist inclined. Hybrid vehicles followed by fuel cells are the future. Battery technology is dead end and GoI knows it full well.
There are different battery technologies on the horizon ., have a lookMort Walker wrote:You seem to make the most innumerate (mathematically challenged) suggestions on this forum. You don't seem to understand power densities and cost. Battery EVs have only been successful because of cheap Chinese Lithium batteries costing $100/KWHr to manufacture. Everywhere else in the world they are much more costly. A large family car hybrid EV which gets at least 20 Km/liter is far cheaper to build and operate. Yes, it would have a battery, but no more than 15-20 KWHr capacity.Rishirishi wrote:
Battery is the new thing. With an oilprice of 45 dollar barrel, Battery operated vehicles cost half the price to operate. Soon battery will also match the combustion engine cars. It is all a matter of time. India needs to get rid of the fuel import problem.
Then yesterday this from Bloomberg on how it actually is a out to happen.Negative prices – a scenario markets are increasingly becoming wary of –occur when benchmarks plunge below zero and trade in the negative. In such a situation, producers are expected to pay potential buyers to take their output as they run out of storage space. While negative prices for oil have already been seen for specific crude grades in the US, it has yet to impact the widely traded commodity benchmarks Brent and WTI
Texas Oil at $2 a Barrel Raises Specter of Negative Price
So Mr. Einstein where is the calculation for hybrid being cheaper to build and operate. What you are saying is pure c**p. Hybrid cars have to have both a petrol engine and an electric one. That is very costly.Mort Walker wrote:You seem to make the most innumerate (mathematically challenged) suggestions on this forum. You don't seem to understand power densities and cost. Battery EVs have only been successful because of cheap Chinese Lithium batteries costing $100/KWHr to manufacture. Everywhere else in the world they are much more costly. A large family car hybrid EV which gets at least 20 Km/liter is far cheaper to build and operate. Yes, it would have a battery, but no more than 15-20 KWHr capacity.Rishirishi wrote:
Battery is the new thing. With an oilprice of 45 dollar barrel, Battery operated vehicles cost half the price to operate. Soon battery will also match the combustion engine cars. It is all a matter of time. India needs to get rid of the fuel import problem.
Rishirishi wrote: So Mr. Einstein where is the calculation for hybrid being cheaper to build and operate. What you are saying is pure c**p. Hybrid cars have to have both a petrol engine and an electric one. That is very costly.
Some calculations for a ICE
Prices of batteries are coming down as the volume goes up. The 100 dollar benchmark is very realistic and has probably been achieved by Tesla and VW.
A typical car with genuine range of 300Km will require a battery pack of approx 50Kwh. The cost savings of an ICE v electric engine is about 2500 dollars. Hence the extra cost of a 100% battery powered vehicle will be 2500 dollars. Or approx Rs 200 000 extra.
The electric vehicle can do 4,5 km per unit of electricity in Indian conditions (hence the cost per km is about Rs 1.2).
Cost of a vehicle with a 20km/L mileage and petrol costs Rs72/L is Rs 3,6 per km (hence a a cost reduction of 66%). A car that drives 150 000km will have saved Rs 160K durings its lifetime. But very few cars manage to give 20km/l after a few years and AC on. Most cars would not give more then 15 km/L. Hence the cost per km is realistically RS 4,8 per km.
The savings will be Rs 7,2 lacs, during the lifetime of the car, at 200 000km. Imagine driving 10km for only Rs 12 of electricity.
Similarly the 2020 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid with 38 MPG sells for $30,000:The 2020 Honda CR-V Hybrid uses the same two-motor system as the Accord Hybrid, which gets a 2.0-liter Atkinson-cycle engine that produces 143 hp and 129 lb-ft of torque. An electric motor produces 181 hp and 232 lb-ft, which means that its 212 combined horsepower make it 22-hp more powerful than the gas version.
I understand the CR-V or RAV4 in India would be a luxury car for most. However, other hybrid Honda and Toyota models will quickly follow in the next 2 years. They will be cheaper and larger than all pure EVs to make up for the cost of fuel. This is the reason Toyota, Honda and Mazda have not gotten into pure EVs. They will successfully make hybrids the size of the CR-V and Toyota RAV4 get over 50 MPG selling at half the cost of a pure EV within 2 years.The 2020 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid is powered by the 2.5L Dynamic Force engine as well as the multi-electric motor. ... The RAV4 Hybrid offers 219 combined net horsepower. In addition to this powerful yet highly efficient powertrain, every 2020 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid will offer an impressive drivetrain
Or from anywhere else. The GoI could with its forex, but has to hold much of it. The problem is the GoI, like all other govts around the world, are facing huge shortfall due to C19. Until these shutdowns/lockdowns end, then only will current account revenue go up.hanumadu wrote:Can't we buy WTI crude if our refineries can handle it and fill up our strategic reserves?
So what is your point? battery cars will not competitive ?Your reasoning is flawed. These are $100/KWHr is for Chinese batteries. If batteries are made anywhere else, they'll be $150/KWHr. A small car will get 300KM range on a 50 KWHr battery. Anything heavier requiring more torque will drain the battery much faster. A 50 KWHr battery will cost at least $5,000. An ICE with a conventional transmission may be around $2,000, but what you can't seem to understand is the concept of running a small gasoline engine at a constant RPM that charges a battery to operate electric motors.
Tesla is sourcing its batteries from China, and we have yet to know the details of how these batteries perform over time. Tesla is not transparent and neither is VW. Both have lied. Tesla is the company which sent sleep apnea machines to hospitals in the US claiming they were medical ventilators.
Instead of ME petro-dollars, we trade them for Chinese Li-Ion dollars, which is equally if not more deadly to India and the world.
I am totally clueless regarding commodities and futures trading so excuse the dumb question, but would it make sense for GOI to invest in oil futures to lock in the price for the required amounts over a longer time?Mort Walker wrote:Or from anywhere else. The GoI could with its forex, but has to hold much of it. The problem is the GoI, like all other govts around the world, are facing huge shortfall due to C19. Until these shutdowns/lockdowns end, then only will current account revenue go up.hanumadu wrote:Can't we buy WTI crude if our refineries can handle it and fill up our strategic reserves?
The future price will reflect what the market price will be in the future. The main reason for the low oil price is storage capacity, which has started to fill up. There simply is not any place to send the produced oil to. Storage cost is about USD 0.5 dollars per month (depending on storage type and interest). Hence it will cost about 6 dollars per barrel, for storing oil 1 year.Bart S wrote:I am totally clueless regarding commodities and futures trading so excuse the dumb question, but would it make sense for GOI to invest in oil futures to lock in the price for the required amounts over a longer time?Mort Walker wrote:
Or from anywhere else. The GoI could with its forex, but has to hold much of it. The problem is the GoI, like all other govts around the world, are facing huge shortfall due to C19. Until these shutdowns/lockdowns end, then only will current account revenue go up.
Rishirishi wrote:
So what is your point? battery cars will not competitive ?
3 of my friends have Tesla, one has a Nissan Leaf. I have driven all 4 of the cars and they are MUCH better to drive. Smother, faster and quiet. It is another world. And maintenance is minimal. There is not much that can go wrong. No exhaust, radiator, engine, gearbox, clutch etc. The only issue with electric cars are the cost. But it is rapidly coming down
The VW ID3 will start from below 30 000 dollars, and have an advertised range of 330KM. I have seen the car, and it is awesome. Small from the outside, but very roomy inside. ICE is a gone case. Only a matter of time. It may be 2 years or maybe 5 years. No one knows.
At less than 5% market penetration it is not going to happen even in 10 years. It seems you wish to be the Rahul Gandhi of BRF.ICE is a gone case. Only a matter of time. It may be 2 years or maybe 5 years. No one knows.
I doubt GoI would invest in oil futures, but may rather try to book long term contracts, but even then prices are going to stay low for a while.Rishirishi wrote:The future price will reflect what the market price will be in the future. The main reason for the low oil price is storage capacity, which has started to fill up. There simply is not any place to send the produced oil to. Storage cost is about USD 0.5 dollars per month (depending on storage type and interest). Hence it will cost about 6 dollars per barrel, for storing oil 1 year.Bart S wrote:
I am totally clueless regarding commodities and futures trading so excuse the dumb question, but would it make sense for GOI to invest in oil futures to lock in the price for the required amounts over a longer time?
Another problem today is the very high transport rate.
Best way to get rid of the oil issues, is to switch to green energy.
The duties on CATL are part of the problem, but ultimately all longer range (>200 Km) EVs suffer from actual cost of Li-Ion battery cost which starts $100/KWHr for Chinese batteries. Batteries made in other countries will be more expensive near $150/KWHr. To keep costs manageable, hybrids and more specifically plug-in hybrids with small gasoline engines will be much more economical with great range and less time to charge the battery.Prasad wrote:Tesla will use CATL as well as LG Chem batteries. CATL was mainly due to the high duties on imported batteries. But LG's batteries are better. So not so cut n dried when it comes to cars made in China, by anyone.
I don't know about VW's reliability, it is questionable. VW is filing a niche not to lose sales or interest in VW as a company. Most of VW's line for this decade will be hybrids. They know where the future is.
What about the remaining 60%, will they run on the hot air coming out of your flatulence?The share of electric vehicles in the Group fleet is to rise to at least 40 percent by 2030.
They will do like other auto manufacturers and offer hybrids of gasoline models. Easy to do for a large company.Almost 70 new electric models by 2028 – instead of the 50 previously planned
Which is quite reasonable as we should have fuel cells by then.Volkswagen Group targeting fully CO2-neutral balance by 2050
Toyota is a company that got a very early start on the whole gasoline-electric hybrid boom, made tons of money and then kept on iterating and improving that idea.
As a result, its hybrid vehicles are some of the best in the world, but as the rest of the industry and the public's interest both move in the direction of full electrification, Toyota has to play catch-up.
That's why Toyota has decided to speed up its electrification timeline, according to a report Friday by Reuters. In fact, it plans to get half of its sales from EVs by 2025. That would be a tall order for any company, but Toyota has vast resources, talented engineers and an iron will so we believe it can happen.
Wrong. An EV is one that is powered by electric motors. See the other thread instead of spreading your diarrhea everywhere including this one about oil and natural gas. Gasoline/diesel is going to be used for another decade for surface transportation, not because of any government mandates or subsidies for batteries, but because of the energy to weight ratio.Rishirishi wrote:EV is not Hybrid. It is pure Electric. Gasoline is going to be replaced in cars, trucks, buses bikes etc. It will come fast.