Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

[Tanaji]

Can we have a separate thread on Astrology predictions on elections, most of us do not believe in Astrology and find these posts very irritating.

While some might believe in it many believe we are not really supposed to know the future, they way we act now affects the future.

Actually I would ask them to do some concrete predictions right now and we sticky them at top. At let the cards fall as they will

[Hriday]

Can we have a separate thread on Astrology predictions on elections, most of us do not believe in Astrology and find these posts very irritating.

While some might believe in it many believe we are not really supposed to know the future, they way we act now affects the future.

I don't know how many in the forum had issues with astrological predictions. I am ok with a separate thread on religious matters.

But what is the harm in occasionally posting the predictions of an astrologer with a very good track record? For those who think it is unscientific and the future is yet to happen I have posted an explanation on this subject on the 10th page of IndianInterests_2. Science says time is an illusion.

Also, the above 90 per cent success rate of the predictions should be considered as a data point, isn't it? It is worth more than the personal irritations and beliefs.

[venkat_kv]

TRS/BRS has a lot of issues and popularity going down.
Congress gaining NOW at its expense
Telangana BJP is fully busy with infighting. What the hell is going on in BJP? Time to replace Nadda?

Very thoughtful and well-informed updates on what's going in Telangana and environs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0286qkpDcSc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejDS2yY7K98

In a nutshell:

- It is possible that BRS has reached some kind of understanding with the BJP at least for now. Maybe this has to do with Delhi liquor scam, 2024 elections, support for passage of UCC and other laws. Not sure, but something is brewing.

- This has confused some of the new entrants to BJP like E Rajendra and others. These guys came from INC wanting to fight the BRS, but now are wondering why the BJP national leadership has seemingly gone soft on KCR and his family. This is publicly coming across as "infighting".

- KCR on his part has recently forayed into southern Maharashtra for a rally with a convoy of 600+vehicles, rattling NCP and INC. Poached an NCP neta into BRS. Could be helping the BJP by splitting the anti-NDA vote.

Vijay K and KL Dubey Saar,
there is a bit more to the story about BJP infighting and supposed "agreement" to TRS/BRS. The TRS/BRS rule is entering its 9th/10th year and is unpopular on quite a few issues. But there is no strong movement among the people to get rid of the govt. there are sections that are definitely unhappy with the govt and its non-implementation of poll promises. KCR is a master of showering poll promises during bypolls but is not that good at following up and implementing them. But he has the tag of achieving Telangana state among large section of people (As having fought for it, but most people don't remember now, that it was BJP and congress votes that resulted in a new state in the parliament). TRS just like in many states controls the flow of news and anything negative against the govt is put down in very calculated and brutal manner (not like WB type but say a mix of congress and AAP type). Most of the news channel funding is done through the state govt advertisements and none dare cross a line, so the issue of non performance is often localized to that constituency as the local people turn against the govt.

An pro-dharmic news analyst way back said that he didn't see BJP arresting Kavita (KCR's daughter ) in liquor scam. this was when Kavitha was attending ED questioning in Delhi time frame. he attributed it to a supposedly sympathy wave that would be generated in KCR's favor once his children goes to jail, so "timing" for the BJP was the factor as he put it.

The local BJP was banking very heavily on Kavitha's arrest to put it as their main campaign point. But, they should have focused exclusively on Telangana local issues with Kavitha's interrogation and probable arrest a shot in the arm. I think had BJP won Karnataka they would have proceeded with Kavithas judicial custody. She was in the dumps with KCR asking her to stay away from any TRS campaigns and day to day affairs while the interrogation was going on. A couple of youtube journalists were arrested and put out of their job (Teenmaar Mallana was sent to jail and Raghu of Tolivelugu youtube channel was sent off packing with that channel being bought off).

The Congress is the joker in the pack here that is beginning to jump after the karnataka results. The local Congress chief Revanth Reddy was facing a lot of infighting and questions to his leadership and the Karnataka results have put a stop to them for some strange reason. He is also the backer of the Karnataka strategist Sunil Kanugolu and has the support of Rahul Gandhi.

The main reason for all the news of BJP infighting being highlighted is also the congress eco-system in play mostly news channels that don't like BJP as a whole lot. Every other day there is one news or the other of Sanjay loosing his post (which has happened now with new incharges being appointed to states).

KCR is a master of playing up the opposition to divide the anti govt votes. He did the same when Etala rajender and Raj gopal redddy to a lesser extent were fighting on BJP ticket. he tried to raise the profile of TPCC chief Revanth reddy profile when he was a non factor. Right now Congress seems to be a major challenger so he is trying to focus on containing them. All of his TRS guys seem to prefer going to Congress with the recent Karnataka results.

Congress was extremely silent when Kavitha questionings were going on. there were no demands of Kavitha coming clean or what not. KCR was then fighting and abusing the BJP central leadership so congress central leadership did try their best to not really fight with KCR openly. that was the time when KCR was proposing to fund the fighting of all other parties against the BJP/Congress.

there may be tactical voting with TRS/BRS to limit congress like they did in 2018 elections and then Congress leaders will be pulled into the TRS party. If people remember, even before 2018 elections quite a few leaders left TRS to join Congress/TDP combine fighting the elections, but KCR was able to prevail. Expect the same but with probably a little lesser majority for TRS this time.

[venkat_kv]

For some reason the peaceful community seem to want to vote back the congress, even at the expense of the rest of secular parties. The congress also doesn't seem to be in the mood of making any deals with local parties or are dealing with them on their own terms (Congress terms).
What could have caused this - like if you take the Saagardighi byelection in WB Mamata has been very good for the peacefuls, so has been KCR but still peaceful are going to vote for Congress which is not in power in any of these states and don't look to be coming back to power.

What would really explain this behavior ? Has any overseas organization/NGO organized any meetings to have them vote for Congress only.

This phenomenon of voting congress is puzzling especially when they are pretty much down in some of the mentioned states.

[chetak]

With many state elections being funded by soreass and other BIF entities including (it is rumored) at least six states where the center is sure (three in the south and three in the north) that the cheenis (along with the pakis) have poured in money to support the local parties, the BJP has no option left but to do what it did in MAH.

The BJP is a political party, and the descriptor "party with a difference" is a handicap that it just cannot allow its opponents to exploit during elections.

While all the other parties do what they please in terms of using money, appeasing vote banks, exploiting caste divisions and unscrupulously benefit from existing social (dalit) fault lines, they are all very vocal about this when the BJP does the same.

why should such a burden and handicap only be incumbent upon the BJP.

So, one gathers that the BJP has decided to level the playing field and play "practically" like the congis and commies always have done, from even before the partition in 1947 and now they will set the narrative as well

the insidious freebie culture ( first used by the aap in dilli and now by the congis in a big state like KAR) has to be countered and this is as good a method as any...

mumtaz bano has suggested that commonly agreed/chosen candidates from the combined opposition all across the country in 2024 be put up against the BJP so that there is a one to one fight with the BJP.

That sort of consolidation is fatal for the BJP, and the also the nationalists and it simply cannot be allowed to happen.

It means that the BJP has to consistently poll an unrealistic figure of 51% of the votes in all such "one to one fight" constituencies to win. So the BJP should not/cannot allow the opposition to consolidate in any meaningful way and put up common candidates.

One should expect more such disruptions from the BJP, starting from bihar and quickly levelling the playing field in other election bound states as well. They should disrupt, decimate, divide, and devour the opposition, play the game like the big boys that they are

Seats are required, both in the LS, and the RS, and time is fast running out

fire is best fought with fire and ending up second best will not help anyone to uphold dharma, or even to tackle the BIF.

If the jihadi hordes are stopped/regulated from pouring into europe and uk, the options open to them may well be democratic countries like India where demographic changes lead to instant capture of land, political power, and resources.

the unabated love jihad assault in the northern parts of India, and the rampant conversion jihad all over India, is a powerful way to intimidate, subdue and disorient the majority population.

"the party with a difference" characteristic can be demonstrated practically after the elections have been won

[chetak]

For some reason the peaceful community seem to want to vote back the congress, even at the expense of the rest of secular parties. The congress also doesn't seem to be in the mood of making any deals with local parties or are dealing with them on their own terms (Congress terms).
What could have caused this - like if you take the Saagardighi byelection in WB Mamata has been very good for the peacefuls, so has been KCR but still peaceful are going to vote for Congress which is not in power in any of these states and don't look to be coming back to power.

What would really explain this behavior ? Has any overseas organization/NGO organized any meetings to have them vote for Congress only.

This phenomenon of voting congress is puzzling especially when they are pretty much down in some of the mentioned states.

venkat_kv ji,

the answer lies in the urdu press and it is as clear as day

That is where the venom spills out and the aam abduls/ayeshas get their daily anti India propaganda fix

the aam abduls/ayeshas all know, for example, that the jihadis in the US (connected to proven paki based terrorist organizations) funded one little princeling's recent trip to the US and obviously the jihadis expect and will definitely extract a quid pro quo when the princeling makes it to the top job

the major chunk of the soreass and other BIF funding is going to the congis and all other parties are well aware of it and the aap, which is also backed by the same sources is trying to muscle in and project khujliwal as the leader in lieu of the fake ghandhy.

the congis (and the BIF) simply cannot afford to let any other party lead the opposition.

which is why people like owasi are in a major quandary as their own political growth is going to be affected if the jihadis consolidate and move majorly to support the congis

which, one suspects, is probably why the BJP is becoming so tactically aggressive and is going after the opposition to break them like it did in MAH

majoritarianism and inclusivity are woke concepts in the Indian context and are solely trotted out to electorally shame the BJP and the Hindus

No party has shown any sort of consideration for the Hindus, and that includes the BJP of today

the mafia famiglia, since even before 1947, certainly did not show them the least bit of consideration. The foolish Hindus kept voting these criminals to power regardless, and all that the Hindus have got in return from political parties is some lip service and the confirmed status of second class citizens in their own land

Power is mandatory for implementation of the right agenda.

Democracy is a game of numbers.

If you have the numbers, you have the power to do the right things for the good of the nation

[Sachin]

No party has shown any sort of consideration for the Hindus, and that includes the BJP of today

My take on this is slightly different. Congress perhaps would have helped stratas/groups within Hindu religion. But that was by splitting the Hindu religious groups into various caste/region based groups and providing them some biscuit crumbs. Again this was not with good intentions, but done only to split the religious majority into sub groups always fighting with each other. And that gives the Congress the band width to run the country completely focusing on benefits for the two so called religious minorities; RoL & RoP.

[chetak]

[VKumar]

Consider what is happening in WB Panchayat elections.
As usual opposition parties are being assaulted and wholesale rigging is going on, so much that even the Governor has complained about the State EC

[KL Dubey]

Modi and Shah are both staunch democrats, and strongly prefer political change by regular elections than by imposition of central administration. In WB they have a true chicken-and-egg problem. They want the population to bring BJP sarkar through electoral means, but that will be difficult if MoMo continues a vice-like grip over large sections of the electorate through "goonda raj".

They managed it in Tripura, but WB is a much harder problem.

Even in WB, BJP has made spectacular electoral gains in the last few years...41% vote in 2019 LS and retaining most of that (39%) in 2021 VS. Night and day comparison relative to 2014 LS (17%) and 2016 VS (11%).

The question is how to get to the 45-50% vote share that will win majority. It increasingly seems like some kind of severely punitive disciplinary action is required on the TMC.

[chetak]

Consider what is happening in WB Panchayat elections.
As usual opposition parties are being assaulted and wholesale rigging is going on, so much that even the Governor has complained about the State EC

They want her as our next PM

WA

Next time liberals cry for the low ranking of the Democracy Index, remember who’s responsible for that. Also notice that not a single fancy word like death of democracy, fascism, or murder of democracy has been tweeted by any so-called honest journalist.

They will cry for rigged EVMs after losing but have shut their mouths on the open loot of ballot boxes & barbaric killings.

hizzonners took away the power of PM to appoint Chief Election Commissioner but not power of CM to appoint State Election Commissioner

Now the massive panchayat poll violence in bengal took place under the new state election commissioner appointed by the TMC govt

all channels vociferously covered the manipur violence and blamed the center/state, but these same channels maintained a complete and studied radio silence on violence in bengal panchayat polls

[chetak]

WA

This the reason why No journalist, media or so called intellectuals question the @ArvindKejriwal govt.

237 people including journalists have been paid by Delhi govt in name of advisors and fellows.

note the number of journos (media)

most of these guys were recently sacked by the delhi LG

[chetak]

Friends,

Sharing here some events and anecdotes of my life which was never easy. I spoke to @smitaprakash .

I speak on how I met @narendramodi in 1981/82 when he was a studious disciple of my mentor Prof. Pravin Sheth. I also express dislike for ‘labelling’ media by anyone…

— Sheela Bhatt शीला भट्ट (@sheela2010) July 12, 2023

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EV12kN4L_MA


EP-79 | Mumbai’s Underworld, Interviewing Dawood to Delhi’s politics and much more with Sheela Bhatt

Premiered 18 hours ago ANI Podcast with Smita Prakash

Sheela Bhatt is a veteran journalist with a career spanning over four decades and has covered a host of beats as a field reporter and has also donned the roles of an editor and publisher. Sheela is known for her work as a crime journalist and she has interviewed all mafia dons of Mumbai’s underworld, which include Karim Lala to Vardarajan Mudaliar and Chhota Shakeel to Dawood Ibrahim. She is one of the few journalists who has interviewed Dawood in-person at his Dubai home and is known to have had access to the mafia don for years. Recently, a picture posted by Sheela on her Twitter account went viral on social media in which she can be seen sitting with Dawood interviewing him. Apart from field journalism, Sheela has covered all general elections since 1979 and continues to write on politics, international affairs, among others. In this edition of ANI Podcast with Smita Prakash, Sheela talks about her entry into journalism, her personal life and marriage to Kanti Bhatt and the transition from being a revenue reporter to running a magazine of her own. She also talks about the Godhra riots and how religion is being used for defining politics.

and yet this ethically retarded, morally challenged, and fearless journalist sheela bhatt, hid legitimate facts, and deliberately chose to keep quiet all these years (as did Modi's classmate who later became a lawyer and this "gutless mentor prof pravin sheth") while the congis/commies/wokes and the liberandus including presstitutes and sold out media were abusing and vilifying Modi as illiterate.

Talk about godi media and "civil society"


Journalist Sheela Bhatt affirms PM Modi’s MA degree, says ‘he was very focused on studies, shared mentor with him in 1981’

On Wednesday, July 12, Sheela Bhatt who was invited to the ANI podcast by Smita Prakash stated that PM Modi was a hardworking and focused disciple of her mentor named Prof Pravin Sheth. “Modi was studying MA part 2 and was a studious disciple of Prof Sheth who was also my mentor. I also know a classmate of his who is a lawyer now. When Congress and AAP began claiming that Modi is illiterate, I had asked her to speak up but she chose to keep mum,” Bhatt said.

BA Degree certificate of PM Modi


MA degree certificate of PM Modi

[chetak]

[chetak]

Mumbai awaits the inauguration of the 21st IIM as Union cabinet approves the bill to upgrade NITIE, Mumbai as IIM.

This long sought educational vision was blocked by Congress for years.

The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved bill amending the IIM Act to include the National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE) in Mumbai as the 21st IIM.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/mum ... 84299.html

[Sachin]

What is cooking up in MH? Are the Pawar-fuls pulling another fast one on the BJP & SS (Shinde)?
Ajit Pawar faction meets Sharad Pawar, proposes to keep party united

[ramana]

What is cooking up in MH? Are the Pawar-fuls pulling another fast one on the BJP & SS (Shinde)?
Ajit Pawar faction meets Sharad Pawar, proposes to keep party united

Dont fall for propaganda. Ajit Pawar already fell for that nited NCP trick.
He now wants it all.
Its a Pawar Struggle.

[ricky_v]

now that all lists have been declared in rj, the following is the mood on the ground... based on the discussion of journalists:

1. rj
many interesting things done by the bjp this time such as fielding sitting mps from many seats, have also fielded a new royal daughter, this time of jaipur, diya kumari who is in her 50's, a dedicated party worker unlike many who draw parallels with vasundhara raje, is currently mp but some consider her to be a strong contender for the cmship

others in the race would also include gajendra singh shekhawat, kirori lal meena, rajendra rathore, vasundhara herself, arjun ram meghawal

on the congress side, gehlot sarkar has been besieged by corruption charges, people have openly stated that there was open loot during his tenure especially after the failed coup of scahin pilot, to placate his supporters of that time he was very lenient, one of the reasons why the inc high command took so long to release the list, gehlot wanted his confidantes of that time in, but feedback from the ground was negative

sentiment on the ground: game for bjp to lose


2. mp

still gelling issues between scindia's team and the rest of the bjp, gwalior chambal belt considered not so easy because of this, mamaji not cm face this go, higher chances of narendra singh tomar to assume charge, also like rj sitting mps told to contest, stalwarts such as kailash vijayvargiya, infighting between kamal nath and digvijay singh camp

sentiment on the ground: difficult for the inc to win (not the same sentiment as rj tbh)


3. cg

bjp's charge came too late, difficult to makeup deficit with baghel and ts deo combo now, raman singh not the tallest leader in state, lost popularity with cadre following the 2018 election, one reason for loss similar to abv's india shining moment, was focused too much on infra, such as for the capital to focus on the social side of the polity, mahadev app scam not such big issue on the ground, also tribal religious demographics has undergone an unnoticed change

4. tg

with tdp boycotting, brs is winning by all metrics, with inc as close second, bjp is a distant third even after the tie-up with pawan kalyan's party, wrong call to flipflop on tiger raja singh, cadre demoralised due to it


5. mz

mnf, part of the neda, the nda of north east, is still expected to return zoramthanga as cm, though of the 40 seats, bjp has put up candidates in 21 seats, currently has only 1 mla

[Vayutuvan]

Mumbai awaits the inauguration of the 21st IIM as Union cabinet approves the bill to upgrade NITIE, Mumbai as IIM.

This long sought educational vision was blocked by Congress for years.

The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved bill amending the IIM Act to include the National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE) in Mumbai as the 21st IIM.

Being from that institution (10th batch), I am not too happy about this development. I hope they allow only engineering graduates into PGDIE, at least.

[chetak]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ik5pkvwRNjs



Thackeray Offered 50 crore - Disha Investigation | Rhea Chakraborty | Sushant | Sandeep Phogat

[venkat_kv]

now that all lists have been declared in rj, the following is the mood on the ground... based on the discussion of journalists:


4. tg

with tdp boycotting, brs is winning by all metrics, with inc as close second, bjp is a distant third even after the tie-up with pawan kalyan's party, wrong call to flipflop on tiger raja singh, cadre demoralised due to it

ricky_v Saar,
Just an update to your post regarding the tg elections. TDP is not boycotting the elections. they are aligned with the congress and have asked their cadre to vote for congress. the last election in 2018 saw congress+tdp get 39% of the vote but only 19 seats i believe with TRS getting the whereabouts of 80 seats.
In 2014 congress had gotten about 24-25% of vote share and got 21 seats with TRS then getting some 64/65 seats and TDP BJP combine getting 17 seats or so. (and my hunch is that in 2018 elections BJP transferred vote share to dent this TDP and congress combine).

CBN and TDP have been branded as Andhra party so much so that nobody wants to be seen embracing TDP openly (which is probably one of the reasons why TPCC chief Revanth Reddy who was Telangana TDP chief before jumping into Congress didn't utter anything during CBN's recent arrest). Atleast Kishan Reddy and T. Raja Singh of the BJP said something about the arrest which the so called analysts from AP brushed aside and have asked the cadre to side with congress saying that Modi and Shah have not personally come down to help CBN.

BJP was never in the second place, it looked like coming into second place with election victories and space left by congress, it still needs to grow in many areas of Telangana (OmkarC's posts also allude to this). The congress is buoyant with the recent Karanataka victory and they have started shouting after that, congress was dead as a dodo even during Raga's Jodo yatra.

It looks like BJP is deciding to fight seriously in a few seats atleast. TRS will scrape through i think, instead of the scamgress coming to power. (the last line is just a thought at this juncture no strong feeling either way)

[chetak]

KER, WB and some other states too seem to be sailing in very similar leaky boats which are fast filling with the water of unmanageable debt because of revdi and needless mollycoddling of poisonous freebies in exchange for votes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8D6857Un5Pg


Bankrupt Punjab? | Punjab's Financial Crisis

Punjab has been handled, or more like mishandled by many governments until today.

Once India's second-richest state during the Green Revolution, today Punjab has become a current debt-ridden one. But how did it get here?

In this video we unfold the intricate details of Punjab's financial woes, its overdependence on subsidies, and how political decisions have contributed to the state's fiscal challenges.

With insights into the recent actions taken by the AAP government, you'll gain a comprehensive understanding of the state's economic situation and its uncertain future.

But the question is, will Punjab be able to ever reclaim its former glory?

Markers:
0:00 Intro
05:10 What do the broad indicators tell us?
08:51 Punjab’s Revenue and Expenditure
13:58 Punjab’s History
19:56 Aam Aadmi Party

[Tanaji]

Chetakji,

It doesn’t matter. Punjabis will be told that their plight is because Modi hates Punjab and hence is not giving them money. He is stealing their land via the agricultural reforms and is also pumping water into Pakistan by stealing from Punjabs water table.

All of these are actual statements made to me by various people, so it is what they believe…

[vijayk]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ik5pkvwRNjs



Thackeray Offered 50 crore - Disha Investigation | Rhea Chakraborty | Sushant | Sandeep Phogat

Looks like Sushant Singh and Sridevi were murdered using some snake poison ... not sure how reliable it is ...

[ricky_v]

CBN and TDP have been branded as Andhra party so much so that nobody wants to be seen embracing TDP openly (which is probably one of the reasons why TPCC chief Revanth Reddy who was Telangana TDP chief before jumping into Congress didn't utter anything during CBN's recent arrest). Atleast Kishan Reddy and T. Raja Singh of the BJP said something about the arrest which the so called analysts from AP brushed aside and have asked the cadre to side with congress saying that Modi and Shah have not personally come down to help CBN.

i find this perception curious, venkat_kv saar, is there really that much of a divide between the 2 states that one party is now considered virtually untouchable in the other? as an aside, what would happen if yrscp fights in the tg elections or the brs in the ap elections (perhaps not so much for the brs, they spearheaded the movement of tg separation, but what about the popularity of their policies)? will they have any traction? i believe all parties are looking to expand, what better than expanding in previous held regions: the following is the vs election map for the last andhra elections:



for the above, the tdp has good chunk of popularity in the current tg, even inc as well, surely jagan mohan and his party of old timers would have contacts over there still

the 2018 tg election map has a clear dominance of brs though

[chetak]

CBN and TDP have been branded as Andhra party so much so that nobody wants to be seen embracing TDP openly (which is probably one of the reasons why TPCC chief Revanth Reddy who was Telangana TDP chief before jumping into Congress didn't utter anything during CBN's recent arrest). Atleast Kishan Reddy and T. Raja Singh of the BJP said something about the arrest which the so called analysts from AP brushed aside and have asked the cadre to side with congress saying that Modi and Shah have not personally come down to help CBN.

i find this perception curious, venkat_kv saar, is there really that much of a divide between the 2 states that one party is now considered virtually untouchable in the other? as an aside, what would happen if yrscp fights in the tg elections or the brs in the ap elections (perhaps not so much for the brs, they spearheaded the movement of tg separation, but what about the popularity of their policies)? will they have any traction? i believe all parties are looking to expand, what better than expanding in previous held regions: the following is the vs election map for the last andhra elections:

[img]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... 29.png[img]

for the above, the tdp has good chunk of popularity in the current tg, even inc as well, surely jagan mohan and his party of old timers would have contacts over there still

the 2018 tg election map has a clear dominance of brs though

[img]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... on.png[img]

ricky saar,

Aren't their vote banks completely different with each focussing separately on the divisive BIF and non BIF ecosystems from whence they derive their major political benefits

the andhra guy is playing an insidious role by attempting to fly under the radar while publicly supporting the centre so that, hopefully, no one looks too closely into his nefarious and also subversive activities while his sister is actively opening up another front in the neighbouring state by aligning with the congis.

In these states, the bulk of the revdi is delivered via non governmental and mostly abrahamic sources to key players, who then redistribute to their khas subordinates who keep the votebanks mollified and under control

who talks about "policies" anywhere in the south....... when it is all managed in cash and kind......meaning this is what you get as your share because the rest is our share

[chetak]

Happy Deepawali


tales that may well foretell the future in MAH.............

BJP alone has won more panchayat seats than the combined MVA

There is a atmosphere of stunned silence in the mainstream media as well as the political parties.

The BJP alliance has done extremely well in these local elections irrespective of the recent protests.


Maharashtra Panchayat Elections Final Results 2023.

BJP - 724
Shiv Sena - 263
NCP (Ajit) - 411
INC - 222
NCP (Sule) - 187
SSUBT - 115
Others - 349



Total seats- 2359

Winners only.

NDA 1236
MVA 497



https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 005564.cms

[chetak]

PK (Prashanth Kishor) says that it's just not merely difficult to defeat Modi, but it's downright impossible.....

PK's reasoning and analysis are both cogent, as well as, justified.


let's hope that PK is right in his opinion because one looks to higher numbers than in the past, as far as the 2024 results go, so that certain rafale riding wayanad residents crash and burn.....politically speaking, of course.....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6BuYErnIKY


PK ने बताया कि क्यों मोदी को हराना मुश्किल ही नहीं, नामुमकिन है ?






चुनावी रणनीतिकार प्रशांत किशोर कहते हैं कि पिछ्ले 30 सालों से मोदी को हराने के प्रयास में जा रहे हैं, पर रिकॉर्ड तो यही बताता है कि मोदी आज तक एक भी चुनाव नहीं हारे। PK का मानना है कि विपक्ष के पास जो विकल्प मौजूद हैं, उनसे तो मोदी नहीं हारने वाले। हां, मोदी ख़ुद ही रिटायर होकर राजनीति से संन्यास ले लें, तब कोई चांस बनता है

[Tanaji]

The real question is why is PK saying this openly now. The man is a snake in the grass if there was one. He must be angling for something.

[Aditya_V]

He wants fence sitters to believe it and either sit it out or in jealousy vote against BJP.

[chetak]

The real question is why is PK saying this openly now. The man is a snake in the grass if there was one. He must be angling for something.

Tanaji saar,


he has no political mass base or even vote bank of his own to back him

He is not a recognized leader in his own right. Backroom boys will rarely make the transition from the shadows to the limelight.

Besides, there are many PK clones now, especially those who have worked with him in the past and are now undercutting him by offering their cut rate services for political analysis, data breakdown and number crunching for informed candidate selection based intelligently on the real time on ground voter perception

He needs the supporting shoulder of any political party that will get him either a LS or RS seat on a platter

If he starts his own party, he will not only get wiped out but he will also lose his credibility. So he is doing the next best thing by resting on his laurels and leveraging his past reputation to stay in the lime light.

It is telling that he has no job in hand at this time when elections are upon many states and also the big one in 2024 and yet no one seems to have sought him out.

It means that people have figured him and his methods out and his clones have undercut his services, as well as, his prices.

Meanwhile, he is sitting on thousands of crores that he has been paid collectively by various political parties, spread across the length and breadth of the country. He initially claimed Modi's 2014 success as his brainchild until senior BJP honchos set the record straight

He failed to convert his initial success to a seat either in the LS or the RS and now it is too late and his once informed manipulation of caste trends, voter attitude and requirements, ground intelligence gathered by a slick team of well paid "researchers" has not only become passé but it is now a commonplace set of tools that even dopes like the bihar mafia use in the pre election work up.

It is only the congis and the BJP that have such a complex inhouse mechanism to help with candidate selection and to tailor party perception to voter expectations.

Basically PK seems to have used a modified and transplanted version of the voter manipulation ecosystem that is being used in the US to push specific narratives.

PK also seems to have learned from the evolution and operations of companies like AggregateIQ, and other off shoots of Cambridge Analytica, the intricacies of voter manipulation and story setting to tailor narratives with with the objective of obtaining specific outcomes.

[Vayutuvan]

The real question is why is PK saying this openly now. The man is a snake in the grass if there was one. He must be angling for something.

@Tanaji
Yes. He might be. But he was discarded by BJP with extreme prejudice. What can he really give BJP that many who are in the party can't?!

He is trying to punch above his weight. IMHO, he is a nobody.

[Atmavik]

The real question is why is PK saying this openly now. The man is a snake in the grass if there was one. He must be angling for something.

he wanted to be MMS 2.0 but that plan failed. his next plan was to inherit Nitishwa but that has also failed.

[venkat_kv]

CBN and TDP have been branded as Andhra party so much so that nobody wants to be seen embracing TDP openly (which is probably one of the reasons why TPCC chief Revanth Reddy who was Telangana TDP chief before jumping into Congress didn't utter anything during CBN's recent arrest). Atleast Kishan Reddy and T. Raja Singh of the BJP said something about the arrest which the so called analysts from AP brushed aside and have asked the cadre to side with congress saying that Modi and Shah have not personally come down to help CBN.

i find this perception curious, venkat_kv saar, is there really that much of a divide between the 2 states that one party is now considered virtually untouchable in the other? as an aside, what would happen if yrscp fights in the tg elections or the brs in the ap elections (perhaps not so much for the brs, they spearheaded the movement of tg separation, but what about the popularity of their policies)? will they have any traction? i believe all parties are looking to expand, what better than expanding in previous held regions: the following is the vs election map for the last andhra elections:

for the above, the tdp has good chunk of popularity in the current tg, even inc as well, surely jagan mohan and his party of old timers would have contacts over there still

the 2018 tg election map has a clear dominance of brs though

Responding after removing the electoral map results from previous elections.

ricky_v Saar,

what you have said would normally be true, but the answer to your question would be found in the manner in which KCR and TRS went about fighting for Telangana and the subsequent behavior of the media.

Essentially KCR the current CM of Telangana was an MLA in the TDP party and was a minister in the first term of the CBN led TDP govt in the 90's. However he didn't get to be minister during the second term as CBN said he is rotating the ministership or some other reason. He resigned from TDP party and cited slight on Telangana people at the time. People also say that it was YSR from congress who instigated KCR to resign as a way to weaken TDP. After congress came to power in 2004 YSR went about dismantling TDP in the whole of undivided AP.

In the 2009 elections CBN and KCR tied up as a mahagathbandhan for elections and as a condition that TDP support telangana (the TDP supremo had then given a letter saying that TDP doesn't have an issue if a separate Telangana state is given and supports it albeit worded it indirectly - it is this letter cited by the UPA saying that all the parties have agreed for a separate state when giving telangana, the rest being Congress, BJP, TRS, AIMIM and probably the communists but they didn't matter in the grand scheme of things ). After the 2009 election the mahagathbandhan of TDP and TRS lost and TRS was unceremoniously dumped by the TDP.

As long as YSR was alive he crushed the demand for a separate Telangana state, however with his death in the helicophter crash, Rosaiah became the CM and was a very weak CM and AP saw a lot of agitations on the streets for separate Telangana. People much senior than me tell that this agitation paled in comparison to what erstwhile Congress leader Marri Chenna Reddy did in the 80's for a separate Telangana. a lot more violence and lot more people died during the late 80's agitation. So most of the Andhra people settled in Hyderabad felt all this is political posturing and a separate state is not going to come as congress would loose badly in the andhra region.

KCR did his fast unto death after this for a separate Telangana and TRS supporters went on a rampage burning public transport and govt offices. It was then that under central govt Chidambaram had said that Center would take the issue of telangana seriously. There is a photo of KCR from the hospital then thanking the Central govt (incidentally this picture is used to drive the emotional issue that it was due to KCR efforts that telangana came in). The constant slogan from KCR and his party then was "all these settlers from Andhra have come and taken our jobs, lands we will drive them out and get our jobs for ourselves". it went to an extent of dividing heroes (historical and movie ones as andhra and telangana, there were statues of great kings, poets, in a place called tankbund in Hyderabad and a great number of these were defaced and damaged by the then TRS party supporters).

The whole agitation was run by KCR and his nephew Harish Rao and some participation by his daughter Kavitha. His son KTR was incidentally in the US working a job and returned at around 2013 and became a minister in the new govt since 2014. The people in Telangana are euphoric that their leader has achieved a state for them, which seems to be slowly fading.

The media as usual after the formation of Telangana were split along party lines and most of the newer ones abused andhra leaders of keeping Telangana backward and enriching themselves and their party coffers. This same media gets funded with govt money and they like to keep the political bosses happy. this goes nonstop 24/7 and slowly people get conditioned to belive a few as unquestioned truth. you see the same behavior in current SeemAndhra region as well.

The issue for KCR is that he always promises something with elections in mind and after elections are won it is put on a back burner.
After 2014 elections with KCR who went back on his words that he will merge his party into Congress if new telangana is given and also make a dalit guy CM when fighting with his party only to take the CMship himself. It is the same thing with dalit bandhu scheme, high rise buildings in tankbund areas, new hospitals, and many more that are announced with fanfare and they fade out after 3-4 months later.

[la.khan]

People much senior than me tell that this agitation paled in comparison to what erstwhile Congress leader Marri Chenna Reddy did in the 80's for a separate Telangana. a lot more violence and lot more people died during the late 80's agitation. So most of the Andhra people settled in Hyderabad felt all this is political posturing and a separate state is not going to come as congress would loose badly in the andhra region.

Nitpick: Cong(I) leader Marri Chenna Reddy led a separate movement for Telangana in late 1960s (1968/69, I think). Agree with everything else.

[ramana]

The code word Andhras is for TDP. Naidu unleashed the land shark mafia after ousting NTR. Most resentment is against Naidu.

It's possible a Reddy dominated YSR Congress could make inroads. Sharmila is already campe in TG.

[ricky_v]

Aren't their vote banks completely different with each focussing separately on the divisive BIF and non BIF ecosystems from whence they derive their major political benefits

chetak saar, would you mind expanding a bit more on this line of thought? i would suppose the common refrain is that ysrcp has a lot of ej backing, what would you classify as a divisive non-bif ecosystem and its nexus?

who talks about "policies" anywhere in the south....... when it is all managed in cash and kind......meaning this is what you get as your share because the rest is our share

fickleness of a political leader is never good, his political sigil must not be that of a weathervane, but unfortunately that is less true for some tall leaders in the southern states, just an observation though i might be in the wrong, the tallest leaders who i can think of as dal badlu (changing political parties not alliances) in recent past would be jyotiraditya scindia, hemanta sarma and to a lesser extent, satyapal mailk, every other leader maintains party discipline and sabotages party efforts to win if miffed not outright joins an opposition that he has foresworn against his entire life. That is what affected me the most during the jagdish shettar ship jumping episode, rss family upbringing, functionary since early age, many seats and high posts and joins the opposition he has fought against his entire political life at the first instance, now there are rumours that sadananda gowda has been approached by dks to join inc, in other states the rumour would have been have laughed off, such as when the entire gj government was changed, but not so here.

such episodes reek of match fixing and it must bother the public if the elected representative has the weakest of convictions, what would be the point of an opposition then if the leadership has no longterm vision beyond being in power to do something or the other irrespective of the wider party philosophy or guiding principles.

In this arena of politicians of dubious morals, every party is looking to expand barring imo only 3 big parties on a national scale, dmk, aiadmk and ysrcp; trs became brs and has some vision, tdp passively not actively might be looking into expansion in tg, ysrcp has no announced plan but given the strength of his bench, the expansion into tg seems to be a low hanging fruit

[ricky_v]

The issue for KCR is that he always promises something with elections in mind and after elections are won it is put on a back burner.
After 2014 elections with KCR who went back on his words that he will merge his party into Congress if new telangana is given and also make a dalit guy CM when fighting with his party only to take the CMship himself. It is the same thing with dalit bandhu scheme, high rise buildings in tankbund areas, new hospitals, and many more that are announced with fanfare and they fade out after 3-4 months later.

eh, the old adage of democracy would apply true in this case then, the public deserves the party / leader it elects, if the public feels that kcr is only tall tales, they will vote accordingly, but then the question would be who would be voted instead, i do not know the disposition of the tpcc, but it would seem like a 2 way fight between brs and inc for the scheduled votebank and a 3 way fight between brs, inc and aimim for the minority appeasement politics

[chetak]

Aren't their vote banks completely different with each focussing separately on the divisive BIF and non BIF ecosystems from whence they derive their major political benefits

chetak saar, would you mind expanding a bit more on this line of thought? i would suppose the common refrain is that ysrcp has a lot of ej backing, what would you classify as a divisive non-bif ecosystem and its nexus?

who talks about "policies" anywhere in the south....... when it is all managed in cash and kind......meaning this is what you get as your share because the rest is our share

fickleness of a political leader is never good, his political sigil must not be that of a weathervane, but unfortunately that is less true for some tall leaders in the southern states, just an observation though i might be in the wrong, the tallest leaders who i can think of as dal badlu (changing political parties not alliances) in recent past would be jyotiraditya scindia, hemanta sarma and to a lesser extent, satyapal mailk, every other leader maintains party discipline and sabotages party efforts to win if miffed not outright joins an opposition that he has foresworn against his entire life. That is what affected me the most during the jagdish shettar ship jumping episode, rss family upbringing, functionary since early age, many seats and high posts and joins the opposition he has fought against his entire political life at the first instance, now there are rumours that sadananda gowda has been approached by dks to join inc, in other states the rumour would have been have laughed off, such as when the entire gj government was changed, but not so here.

such episodes reek of match fixing and it must bother the public if the elected representative has the weakest of convictions, what would be the point of an opposition then if the leadership has no longterm vision beyond being in power to do something or the other irrespective of the wider party philosophy or guiding principles.

In this arena of politicians of dubious morals, every party is looking to expand barring imo only 3 big parties on a national scale, dmk, aiadmk and ysrcp; trs became brs and has some vision, tdp passively not actively might be looking into expansion in tg, ysrcp has no announced plan but given the strength of his bench, the expansion into tg seems to be a low hanging fruit

ricky saar,

The BIF are solidly backing the powers that be in andhra as well. Their dravidian eelam project, especially after the ltte debacle, that was to have taken a slight detour and re emerge like the invigorated phoenix after being replanted in TN to take root in more salubrious climes, has now hit a major roadblock in the form of the fast awakening majority, and also, it has been hit majorly by a set of forces that are not easy to deal with unless the govt at the centre is regime changed and the erstwhile pax romana returns, so to speak

The centre is going after the dravidian support base in SL and has also actively undercut the dravidian narrative being pushed from TN. By cleverly working with the GoSL, and by providing billion$ for the support of the SL state, they are able to do many things specifically for SL tamils, things that the TN BIF backed dravidians always wanted to do but were cock blocked by the wary sinhala.

The centre's financial and material support for SL, including running interference to tame the intransigence of the WB and the IMF has calmed the sinhala. The sinhala see that the GoI and the GoSL share common enemies.....

meanwhile, in TN the (protected) very public rise of Annamalai has put the fear of god in the panicked ranks of the dravidian leadership.

The pincer is closing.....in TN, so it is likely that the andhravadu has been tasked to move up into the lead



So the BIF are now pushing the andhra narrative since they have been cock blocked in TN and the sister has moved to telengana and there she has joined up with the congis. The congis are in serious need of vitamin M whereas the andhra lot are sitting very pretty, cash wise.

If the pax romana mafia is routed in 2024, the BIF may look for a new leadership not from the mafia bloodline. the only two options are the ricebag dravidian or ricebag reddy, and each has one state under his control

I have the feeling that many things are happening at the lower levels that may come to fruition around 2024.....when two geopolitically vital elections are due.....

which means that, for India, there may well be serious regime change efforts underway and the fight back is also gathering steam, as well as, momentum.

This time around, it is more an attack from the gora media and deep state actors pushing turdeau fronted agenda and other toolkits.....

India, as well as, russia are in a position to destabilize the world markets in certain commodities and in these uncertain times, India has also garnered respect and support from diverse sources, especially in africa

The geopolitical and geostrategic divide will not be a simple algebra based formula. The goras have been caught flatfooted by the hamas attack on israel. They cannot fight on two fronts with the same intensity and commitment and that is why that ukr clown has got his panties in a serious twist

the hamas attack has the serious potential to change geopolitical scenarios and divert, divide, dilute, and repurpose committed assets and resources.

This will cause many deep states to re-evaluate their current positions while they assess their exposures, to one or the other side, and firm up their strategic stance. The two huge and unknown variables are the global implications of the two big elections in 2024.

If Modi returns stronger or weaker, politically speaking, the repercussions, for India, will be immediate. The BIF, thus have a serious stake in the outcome and they will play to their advantage, if they can affect the outcome of 2024, but sadly for them, the hamas may have spoiled their party.

Lord Ram's grand return to Ayodhya, IMVHO, has been timed to perfection...

telengana, AFAIK, thus far, does not have a significant BIF interest presently but with the sister moving base to telengana, the BIF may be spreading their wings to further their agenda.

This is my read of the situation. There will be a tendency for the BIF to make hay in India while others are diverted away to covering their flanks.

Apologies for the mixed metaphors...

[chetak]