AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Jul 2013 06:35

devesh wrote:
Bade wrote:Andhra politics seems so counter intuitive. If MIM has no presence outside Hyderabad or Telengana areas why they seek status quo ?

If BJP sees gains in Telengana but loss in coastal AP, how would it help either. Isn't it roughly equal numbers of MP seats for each new state. So what is the long term gain for BJP from this. Same with Congress.

Confusing as hell if you are not an Andhra person.

BJP has no strength anywhere in AP.

As per Muppala's link BJP won 1 village out of 11000 villages in Rayala Seema and Coastal AP regions. Deveshji's Dharmic BJP is asking for 5 villages but Kaurav land of Seemandhra is denying them.

(I'd bet that 1 village is BJP ex-president Venkaiah Naidu's)

http://i.imgur.com/37I8xmL.png

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 30 Jul 2013 06:47

ShyamSP wrote:
devesh wrote:
BJP has no strength anywhere in AP.
As per Muppala's link BJP won 1 village out of 11000 villages in Rayala Seema and Coastal AP regions. Deveshji's Dharmic BJP is asking for 5 villages but Kaurav land of Seemandhra is denying them.

(I'd bet that 1 village is BJP ex-president Venkaiah Naidu's)

http://i.imgur.com/37I8xmL.png

get rid of the "ji". otherwise, my carefully built up image of you as "kaurava" is getting tarnished. you need to make more effort to make me believe that you are kaurava. and then I can go ahead and make a shapatham of doing so-and-so....

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 30 Jul 2013 08:35

Song on Telugu unity i by C narayana reddy from telangana, winner of jnanapith for Telugu literature .

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 30 Jul 2013 11:23

Bade wrote:Andhra politics seems so counter intuitive. If MIM has no presence outside Hyderabad or Telengana areas why they seek status quo ?

If BJP sees gains in Telengana but loss in coastal AP, how would it help either. Isn't it roughly equal numbers of MP seats for each new state. So what is the long term gain for BJP from this. Same with Congress.

Confusing as hell if you are not an Andhra person.

Telengana Hindus have long suffered under Nizam and have some contempt and have adequate muscle to counter any Majlis antics. All these years, they were held back by Kosta elites. Once Telengana is formed, when communal tensions flare up, then situation will be eye-for-eye, and at this time there will be no holding back of T Hindus by Coastal elites. If this is the situation, in the long term it will lead polarization, which ultimately may benefit Hindus or pro-Hindu or True secular parties like BJP. This scares shit out of Oasis and leftover Hyderabadi Razakars.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 30 Jul 2013 11:43

(I'd bet that 1 village is BJP ex-president Venkaiah Naidu's)

http://i.imgur.com/37I8xmL.png[/quote]

In the resent 2009 MLA election BJP has not got a single vote in his village. He never contest for MP seat in AP and last time he contested for MLA he lost. He is now Rajya Sabha MP from Karnataka (which his boss LKA and D4 gang lost for BJP) He is the main reason for BJP not growing in AP. He is from Costal AP and he will never win a LokSabha seat from there in his life. So much for BJP President.

James B · Post by **James B** » 30 Jul 2013 15:27

Ok. Telangana decision taken.

‘Sushma congratulates PM over Telangana decision’

BJP Andhra Pradesh Chief G Kishan Reddy may have just given away the UPA government’s decision on the division of Andhra Pradesh.

Speaking to local media in Hyderabad, Reddy said senior BJP leader Sushma Swaraj telephoned Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and discussed the stance of BJP on a separate Telangana state.

The PM apprised Sushma of the decision the government was going to take later today, post which Sushma Swaraj congratulated Singh.

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/telan ... 95733.html

James B · Post by **James B** » 30 Jul 2013 15:27

MMS calls up Sushma swaraj asking for support to Telangana bill. Tomorrow 11.15 AM cabinet meeting

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Jul 2013 15:48

Giving T will settle the state once for all. Thoda Rhona-Dhona hoga but after that life will back to normal. Exit of INC is all that is needed and chance are very high.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Jul 2013 15:54

kmkraoind wrote: Telengana Hindus have long suffered under Nizam and have some contempt and have adequate muscle to counter any Majlis antics. All these years, they were held back by Kosta elites. Once Telengana is formed, when communal tensions flare up, then situation will be eye-for-eye, and at this time there will be no holding back of T Hindus by Coastal elites. If this is the situation, in the long term it will lead polarization, which ultimately may benefit Hindus or pro-Hindu or True secular parties like BJP. This scares shit out of Oasis and leftover Hyderabadi Razakars.

This is true from the front end. But the secular-R-seema folks are the ones who did maximum damage to HYD Muslims. They grabbed every piece of land that they can from Muslim areas and to keep the mouths shut, they poured words and money to Owaisis. Instead of Muslims being spread all over, they got more ghettoized.

Either way there is only one option for these MIM types, live with mainstream or become extinct. They have to live with the portion of Nizam state that they think is their adda but in the hands of those they exploited.

Let us hope that they really create two natural state instead of variants such as HYD as OT, Rayala-T etc crap.

vina · Post by **vina** » 30 Jul 2013 17:37

Ok. Expect river water disputes to erupt between KTK, Maharashtra, Telengana and Seemandhra over Krishna and Godavari.

One MORE party in the fray now.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Jul 2013 18:26

Barring joint status of Hyderabad, Telangana will be formed. Congratulations Devesh.

Looks like Congress sweeps 16 out of 17 seats (1 for MIM). If they don't solve Hyderabad and Water, they may be out from remaining 25 seats. So INC maximum from two states may be 20 seats.

Worst losers are non-T people duped by their own Congress leaders.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 30 Jul 2013 18:32

X-post

Yahoo reports Telengana conceded. INC calculation is they will sweep T while there will be a reaction in CA and YRSC will sweep who will then back UPA.

chandrasekaran · Post by **chandrasekaran** » 30 Jul 2013 18:48

Supratik wrote:X-post

Yahoo reports Telengana conceded. INC calculation is they will sweep T while there will be a reaction in CA and YRSC will sweep who will then back UPA.

Exactly. Congress will do well in the new state. YSRC will oppose congress, win big time and post poll, give "issue based support"

I believe congress has wriggled out a decent % of seats from this region. Now if they can prevent Yeddy from going back to BJP, then they have KTK in their kitty too. I am expecting status quo in Kerala or a slight dip. I think JJ can also give "issue based support" post poll. So all in all well poised in the Southern region

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 30 Jul 2013 18:52

Yes, they have southern India in control. JJ will go with UPA if she gets her pound of flesh although she likes NM and dislikes SG. NM strategy should be to bring Yeddi back and ally with TRS.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Jul 2013 18:59

Supratik wrote:Yes, they have southern India in control. JJ will go with UPA if she gets her pound of flesh although she likes NM and dislikes SG. NM strategy should be to bring Yeddi back and ally with TRS.

BJP in T+New state is 0. TRS already said they would merge/align with INC if Congress gives Telangana.

Yeddi is critical if they want get some in Karnataka. As I mentioned several times, BJP shot itself in the foot in Karnataka and AP.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Jul 2013 18:59

Congratulations Telangana people! Wish you all the best in building a progressive and successful state.

I pray that the wishes of telangana citizenry will come to reality, especially w.r.t drinking water, education, economic progress and agriculture development.

Andhra people have a wonderful opportunity here. If they can develop 4 cities of Hyderabad size and economy (~4-5 million people & $100B economy each) with the special-package as the stimulus then it will be win-win scenario.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 30 Jul 2013 19:05

Good opportunity to rename Hyderabad now. New state new name for capital.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 30 Jul 2013 19:08

It is good thing to happen in long run.. Why worry? The region is freed from influence of coastal elites. With likes of Paritala Ravindra gone, there is no hope of any muscle power coming from Rayalseema to fix things. YSR made sure that this seed is uprooted for good from Rayalseema. Telangana was on its own, anyways.

Now what we have to look is how does the new state machinery keeps Maoists out of bounds and confined in CG's dantevada and bastar districts.

member_22872 · Post by **member_22872** » 30 Jul 2013 19:10

What is the capital of Andhra now? 10 years of Hyd being a dual capital is too less a time for Andhra to develop it's own capital.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Jul 2013 19:11

RamaY wrote:Congratulations Telangana people! Wish you all the best in building a progressive and successful state.

I pray that the wishes of telangana citizenry will come to reality, especially w.r.t drinking water, education, economic progress and agriculture development.

Andhra people have a wonderful opportunity here. If they can develop 4 cities of Hyderabad size and economy (~4-5 million people & $100B economy each) with the special-package as the stimulus then it will be win-win scenario.

No money or waters or any issues are resolved by the way. They'll have to divert Hyderabad money for 10 years.
It takes decades to develop industrial infrastructure in the rest of AP. Rayalaseema will be hopeless till such infrastructure takes place.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 30 Jul 2013 19:12

+1 on empowerment.. i like the idea of multiple states speaking the same language.

glad they heard my suggestion of joint capital approach.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Jul 2013 19:12

10 years of joint capital is bs. Why you need 10 year of Hyderabad to be with both side. It should be just 2 years and decide a new capital on the otherside.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 30 Jul 2013 19:14

how long does it take to build infrastructure for being a capital.. and with telugu money power.. it should be all pre-fabricated advanced engineering blocks.. yup, 2 years is good. please make it a model state.

now TN should move towards North TN vs South TN.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 30 Jul 2013 19:17

ShyamSP wrote: BJP in T+New state is 0. TRS already said they would merge/align with INC if Congress gives Telangana.
Yeddi is critical if they want get some in Karnataka. As I mentioned several times, BJP shot itself in the foot in Karnataka and AP.

Well judging from panchayat election results TRS may gain an extra 2-3% if it allies with BJP and BJP being non-existent has nothing to loose. TRS may join INC or it may try to become the other pole. That will be the next political move to watch in T. I hope the BJP nixes naming the new state Hyderabad. Bringing Yeddi back needs some deft manouvering but w/o him there is nothing for the NDA in the south at present.

As for capital lets see whether it goes the C'garh way which was supposed to be a temporary joint capital.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Jul 2013 19:21

Atri wrote:It is good thing to happen in long run.. Why worry? The region is freed from influence of coastal elites. With likes of Paritala Ravindra gone, there is no hope of any muscle power coming from Rayalseema to fix things. YSR made sure that this seed is uprooted for good from Rayalseema. Telangana was on its own, anyways.

Now what we have to look is how does the new state machinery keeps Maoists out of bounds and confined in CG's dantevada and bastar districts.

Factionist DNA has been there for centuries.

Paritala Ravi (a Kamma) is 1 decade phenomenon. YSR caused his fall. With fall of YSR, you'll have new warlords to rise, given Rayalaseema uncertain direction.

With Center leaving things unresolved, muscle and loot will be name of the new game.

member_22872 · Post by **member_22872** » 30 Jul 2013 19:23

India has inertia due to rest. It takes time to develop infrastructure. Even 10 years is less time. But may be the enthusiasm of gaining a new state could propel people to build a new capital in less time.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Jul 2013 19:24

ShyamSP wrote: BJP in T+New state is 0. TRS already said they would merge/align with INC if Congress gives Telangana.

Yeddi is critical if they want get some in Karnataka. As I mentioned several times, BJP shot itself in the foot in Karnataka and AP.

BJP will suddently become a huge player in Telangana if they play it right. In my view T-TDP will have to go for open alliance or merge with BJP and I really don't seen any USP for TDP (which is a family party emerged from NTR and his family) to survive in this new state.

August 11th Modi visit will be very good one.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Jul 2013 19:25

SaiK wrote:how long does it take to build infrastructure for being a capital.. and with telugu money power.. it should be all pre-fabricated advanced engineering blocks.. yup, 2 years is good. please make it a model state.

now TN should move towards North TN vs South TN.

I disagree. State capital doesn't mean a couple of buildings for assembly. It needs to have enough critical mass for a viable city. This includes
- Population (willing to move to new city)
- Housing for that population
- Education, medical etc civic facilities
- Economic activity (Industrial, financial and service sectors) and employment opportunities
- Civic Infra (Roads, Drainages, electricity and so on)
- Power supply (generation and transmission)
and so on...

not even a single thing can be done in 2 years.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Jul 2013 19:26

venug wrote:India has inertia due to rest. It takes time to develop infrastructure. Even 10 years is less time. But may be the enthusiasm of gaining a new state could propel people to build a new capital in less time.

Capital is a nuisance emotion on the otherside. Vizag is as good as completely developed and huge city. Just make it and be done with it. Hyd for 10 years is ripe for trouble

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 30 Jul 2013 19:26

I envisage the situation slightly differently. KCR is screwed, if he merges TRS in Congress, he will just become "sathakoti lingallo bodi lingam" or one leader among many leaders. If he senses UPA-III will not come to power, he might go for hara-kiri and can pass Telengana legacy to his family members. But the important consideration is pace of T formation, timing of his announcement and threat perception.

I do not think T will become a cakewalk for Congress. Even in Seemandhra, CBN can spread the message that YSRC is nothing but a proxy to Congress and voting for it is like voting for Congress itself. People may buy CBN's argument, because they have seen freshly how PRP embraced Congis.

There will be lot of turmoil in AP regarding job losses in Hyd and loss of wealth (RE) during T formation, if CBN succeeds in channelizing this anger against both Congress and Pilla Congress (YSRC), it will be tough for Congress and its proxies.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Jul 2013 19:29

kmkraoind wrote:I envisage the situation slightly differently. KCR is screwed, if he merges TRS in Congress, he will just become "sathakoti lingallo bodi lingam" or one leader among many leaders. If he senses UPA-III will not come to power, he might go for hara-kiri and can pass Telengana legacy to his family members. But the important consideration is pace of T formation, timing of his announcement and threat perception.

I do not think T will become a cakewalk for Congress. Even in Seemandhra, CBN can spread the message that YSRC is nothing but a proxy to Congress and voting for it is like voting for Congress itself. People may buy CBN's argument, because they have seen freshly how PRP embraced Congis.

There will be lot of turmoil in AP regarding job losses of in Hyd and loss of wealth (RE) during T formation, if CBN succeeds in channelizing this anger against both Congress and Pilla Congress (YSRC), it will be tough for Congress and its proxies.

Congress will lose no matter what. It is all maya in their thought process. Just watch this new thriller.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Jul 2013 19:29

Supratik wrote:
ShyamSP wrote: BJP in T+New state is 0. TRS already said they would merge/align with INC if Congress gives Telangana.
Yeddi is critical if they want get some in Karnataka. As I mentioned several times, BJP shot itself in the foot in Karnataka and AP.
Well judging from panchayat election results TRS may gain an extra 2-3% if it allies with BJP and BJP being non-existent has nothing to loose. TRS may join INC or it may try to become the other pole. That will be the next political move to watch in T. I hope the BJP nixes naming the new state Hyderabad. Bringing Yeddi back needs some deft manouvering but w/o him there is nothing for the NDA in the south at present.

As for capital lets see whether it goes the C'garh way which was supposed to be a temporary joint capital.

TRS cannot be or will not be the other pole. That is one of major purpose of giving Telangana. Congress gobbles up TRS to be dominant in decades to come.

The other pole will be TDP considering votebank equations. Congress KHAM votebank and TDP KHAB (B for OBC) votebank are the poles in new state.

New states are Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 30 Jul 2013 19:31

Are these population %age figures correct for Andhra Pradesh:

http://www.apsmfc.com/ministry-population-cenus.html

Total Population : 7,62,10,007

Hindu Population : 6,78,36,651 = 89.01%

Muslim Population : 69,86,856 = 9.17%

Christian Population : 11,81,917 = 1.55%
___________________________________________

Then how come YSR, Jagan & current CM also a christians were/are carrying Bible to public meetings, having cross in the office?

Making a christian head of Tirupathi Balaji temple & looting funds for EJism.

What would be the real percentage?

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 30 Jul 2013 19:31

I agree with the proposal that the political capital of telangana should be Warangal.

member_22872 · Post by **member_22872** » 30 Jul 2013 19:34

I too feel Vizag should be capital, it can rival Hyderabad, it is also a harbour city, very good for business. But isn't Vizag too small (area wise) to be made capital? capital will draw lot of population, stresses on resources are going to build...

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Jul 2013 19:34

Telangana state will comprise 10 districts with Hyderabad as its capital. The Congress leadership has reportedly dropped the proposal for Rayala-Telangana, comprising Rayalaseema and Telangana in view of strong opposition from leaders of both the regions. It is also understood to have given up the idea of union territory status to Hyderabad due to reservations by Telangana leaders.

The other state comprising Rayalaseema and Andhra regions is likely to retain the name Andhra Pradesh. Hyderabad is likely to be made joint capital of both the states for few years till Andhra Pradesh develops its own capital.

Good decision.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Jul 2013 19:36

I do not think they should consider Hyderabad, Visakhapattanam, Vijayavada, Tirupati etc existing cities for capitals.

They should take some historical places for new capitals. I hope they make Warangal/Orugallu as the new capital of Telangana State and Amaravati as capital of Andhra Pradesh.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Jul 2013 19:36

Muppalla wrote:
venug wrote:India has inertia due to rest. It takes time to develop infrastructure. Even 10 years is less time. But may be the enthusiasm of gaining a new state could propel people to build a new capital in less time.
Capital is a nuisance emotion on the otherside. Vizag is as good as completely developed and huge city. Just make it and be done with it. Hyd for 10 years is ripe for trouble

Vizag is too far for most. Ongole * is reasonable, mid point, and accessible by every district. This way it can be important city along with Vizag, Kakinada, Vijayawada, Guntur, Tirupati, Kurnool in terms of resources and infrastructure.

Added later: Ongole with Ongole bull as state animal/symbol is great

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 30 Jul 2013 19:48

a good map to ponder upon...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jul 2013 19:53

So Kurnool and Anathapur in Telangana was a red herring?

I think KCR will not merge his party till everything is really completed.

Chidu must be khush like Magambo.
But then it unleashes Vengi which was tied down so far.