2021 Five State Elections

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Mar 2021 20:15

https://www.cnbctv18.com/views/whatever ... 601511.htm

Whatever be the assembly poll result, a Bengal model of Hindutva may be emerging

The party has made deep inroads in rural Bengal and among Dalits and Adivasis
A BJP victory, in other words, may make Bengal very different from what it has been for over half a century now.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 22 Mar 2021 03:19

vijayk wrote:https://www.cnbctv18.com/views/whatever ... 601511.htm

Whatever be the assembly poll result, a Bengal model of Hindutva may be emerging

The party has made deep inroads in rural Bengal and among Dalits and Adivasis
A BJP victory, in other words, may make Bengal very different from what it has been for over half a century now.

WB election is crucial if we have to safeguard our eastern border, and take the Act East policy forward. The border security needs to be enhanced to prevent fake voters from crossing in. The few seat-related agitations which have been reported in a section of media are minor irritants. Other parties are facing a far worse internal strife. Right now BJP is letting the flood water come in, and the hope is that a purification process will be undertaken later. Nominating candidates in a few touchy seats was tricky to begin with. The party had to keep in mind that some heavyweights from TMC, like Shubhendu Adhikary, are given some latitude to handpick their own men/women in some seats. The calculation is to override the fallout of one contentious candidate by two sure-bet candidates in other places. However, vast majority of candidates have been picked very wisely. Media is blowing out of proportion the squabbling in a few seats.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 22 Mar 2021 03:45

Kati wrote:
vijayk wrote:https://www.cnbctv18.com/views/whatever ... 601511.htm

Whatever be the assembly poll result, a Bengal model of Hindutva may be emerging

The party has made deep inroads in rural Bengal and among Dalits and Adivasis
A BJP victory, in other words, may make Bengal very different from what it has been for over half a century now.
WB election is crucial if we have to safeguard our eastern border, and take the Act East policy forward. The border security needs to be enhanced to prevent fake voters from crossing in. The few seat-related agitations which have been reported in a section of media are minor irritants. Other parties are facing a far worse internal strife. Right now BJP is letting the flood water come in, and the hope is that a purification process will be undertaken later. Nominating candidates in a few touchy seats was tricky to begin with. The party had to keep in mind that some heavyweights from TMC, like Shubhendu Adhikary, are given some latitude to handpick their own men/women in some seats. The calculation is to override the fallout of one contentious candidate by two sure-bet candidates in other places. However, vast majority of candidates have been picked very wisely. Media is blowing out of proportion the squabbling in a few seats.

Yes, WB 2021 is UP 2017.. perhaps even more important as its a border state that's steadily slipping away demographically.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Mar 2021 22:53

Kati, Of the 296 candidates about 17 to 20 TMC folks were given seats and only those who joined early on.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 23 Mar 2021 00:00

OmkarC wrote: Yes, WB 2021 is UP 2017.. perhaps even more important as its a border state that's steadily slipping away demographically.

Is this sort of comparison warranted? Because it will cause a bigger than necessary disappointment if things don't work out. UP was a state where BJP had a history even if they hadn't had a government in a long time. Plus the RSS presence there was strong and the state was hugely important in LS elections as well. It was the bedrock on which the 2014 victory was built. WB has none of those characteristics and is a state where BJP is starting virtually from scratch. Yes, expectations are high after the remarkable performance in 2019 LS elections, the high octane current campaign and the looming demographic threat which you mentioned, but that doesn't mean we should expect miracles too.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 23 Mar 2021 00:40

ramana wrote:Kati, Of the 296 candidates about 17 to 20 TMC folks were given seats and only those who joined early on.

Yes. Actually, most of the people overlook the hidden hand of Sangh played in the last ten years.
When Left was in power they played every trick, including physical eliminations, to prevent RSS from opening branches and operating them. So Bengal has had about 750 Shakhas for almost three decades. It was concentrated mainly in some Kolkata neighborhoods, in Burdwan district and some in North Bengal. After "Paribartan" (= "Change") brought by Mumtaaz Banoo, who created the golden opportunity for the Sangh, number of Shakhas skyrocketed to more than 2000 in the last ten years. This expansion, and making assiduous efforts to reach out to the public, resulted in the good show in GE2019. It is the Sanghis who were approaching the low-hanging fruits to convince them to come and join the BJP. The political space in WB has now being tilled fully by the Sangh. Tripura and Assam have been taken care of. Meghalaya is under control. Now its a do or die for Bengal. Many within the TMC rank n file are keeping close contacts with the Sangh.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 23 Mar 2021 13:49

Asansol South (part of west Burdwan district) - indication is that BJP candidate Agnimitra Pal is going to win against the TMC candidate Sayoni Ghosh (infamous for putting a condom on a Shivling and tweeting that pic).

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 23 Mar 2021 14:06

Kerala Elections: NDA Gets A Rude Shock, Nominations Of BJP Candidates Rejected In 3 Seats
Setback for BJP in Kerala as nomination of 3 NDA candidates rejected
Don't know the root cause of this; the infamous in-party fights of KL BJP or plain and simple carelessness. Nomination papers of two candidates were rejected during scrutiny on the ground that their papers did not have the signature of the party's state president. Process and procedures of filing nomination papers have remained the same and every politician worth the money will know how to get it filed.

The candidates were for two constituencies - Thalasseri in North Kerala & Guruvayur in Central Kerala. Guruvayur is a famous temple town where BJP will get some fan following. Thalasseri also is a place where this a strong RSS cadre present.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 23 Mar 2021 14:11

Sachin wrote:Kerala Elections: NDA Gets A Rude Shock, Nominations Of BJP Candidates Rejected In 3 Seats
Setback for BJP in Kerala as nomination of 3 NDA candidates rejected
Don't know the root cause of this; the infamous in-party fights of KL BJP or plain and simple carelessness. Nomination papers of two candidates were rejected during scrutiny on the ground that their papers did not have the signature of the party's state president. Process and procedures of filing nomination papers have remained the same and every politician worth the money will know how to get it filed.

The candidates were for two constituencies - Thalasseri in North Kerala & Guruvayur in Central Kerala. Guruvayur is a famous temple town where BJP will get some fan following. Thalasseri also is a place where this a strong RSS cadre present.

black lentils onlee

impossible to make such a "mistake" in KER and that too, not once but two times and also from crucial constituencies

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 23 Mar 2021 18:52

Patil saar of 5Forty3 seems to have gone out of business because nobody supported him (except me). My support was unfortunately not enough. He's making tweets (Jack Dorkey has still not taken note I guess), but his company seems to have gone kaput. Pity, this Bengal election would have been of great interest to him, it's a perfect nail-biter.

EDIT: I remembered that Dubey ji had posted on this, so went back to the previous page to look:

KL Dubey wrote:WB update from Dr. BB:

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1370614433190350850

Excuse me for raising expectations in an already surcharged environment.

It is looking increasingly like Uttar Pradesh 2017!
From various replies on his twitter account, it seems to me he signed some kind of contract with BJP and his team is working for the party.
.
.
.

So no more private analyses from Dr. Patil then?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Mar 2021 19:22

I am told he is working for someone exclusively now. Hence no public news on polls etc. We do not know.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 23 Mar 2021 19:50

^ Thanks. Will have to be content with other polls then. They all give the edge to the TMC for now.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 23 Mar 2021 20:57

Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3

#ThalaiviTrailer is a good example of how "creatives" on the right side of the political divide can fail in their ultimate political objectives due to bad timing.
Remember Udta Punjab strategically released months before the Punjab elections?

I was thinking the same 2 days ago when I saw Kangana team advertising the movie ... Love, Struggle and Plitical fights on Jayalalitha movie heading. I thought how stupid!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Mar 2021 00:26

kati, I requested you to post the Satta Bazar take on WB elections every day or whenever they are updated.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 24 Mar 2021 00:41

Journalist Sushant Sinha spent 2 weeks criss-crossing Bengal and talking to people on the ground. I have provided a link to his video below but here's the summary :

1. There is fear everywhere. It is the kind of fear that i haven't even seen during the heydays of Lalu Prasad Yadav's administration in Bihar. People are petrified to say anything against Mamata Banerjee and TMC.
2. There are no jobs and no industries. The communists killed all the businesses and then jumped shipped to TMC and carried on the same policies, there is rampant unemployment everywhere.
3. Few jobs that are available goes to those who are politically influential or muslims. If you are a Hindu and you are not closely connected to anyone in TMC then you are done for and you may as well move out of the state. Even those who do get jobs remain as probationary for years because of corruption and bureaucracy.
4. Because of points 2 and 3, there is abject poverty. It is incredible to see how poor the state is in this day and age.
5. In general people are morose, disappointed and hopeless, after living for 3 generations under poverty, unemployment, corruption and violence they have no hopes.

Now to electoral politics -

6. It is a straight fight between BJP and TMC, INC and the Left are nowhere in the picture.
7. Both BJP and TMC have advantages, the non-TMC hindu votes will consolidate behind BJP and the entire muslim vote will consolidate behind TMC.
8. AIMIM and Abbas Siddique's India Secular Front will not make a dent , the muslims are behind TMC.
9. Due to the phases it is hard to say who has the advantage but at this point it looks like advantage BJP with 55 to 45 split between the two parties. BJP if it can carry the momentum until the end may get over 150 seats.
10. There are still lots of undecided voters. They are either genuinely undecided or they are afraid to state their opinion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kp-g-NXBwTI

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 24 Mar 2021 01:44

ramana wrote:kati, I requested you to post the Satta Bazar take on WB elections every day or whenever they are updated.

Ramana Saar,
Please see this link: https://www.crowdwisdom360.com/blog/detail/580

I'm going to provide the satta rate even though it seems too optimistic to me .....

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 24 Mar 2021 01:48

Satta Bazar till two days ago (March 21, 2021):

BJP/NDA: for Rs. 1 bet - return Rs.1 [Seems a bit optimistic; my return should be Rs. 2]

TMC: for Rs. 1 bet - return Rs. 5 [Seems too much pessimistic; my return should be Rs. 2.50]

INC+LF+ISF: for Rs. 1 bet - return Rs. 16 [About right; my return can be as high as Rs. 50]

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 24 Mar 2021 01:52

It is true that people are extremely tight-lipped about the situation, which is very very unusual for the politically charged Bengali society. It reminds me of another Bengali state Tripura, where I witnessed the same situation in early 2017, even though the ruling LF was pretty confident about their victory.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Mar 2021 02:26

https://www.crowdwisdom360.com/blog/detail/357

As per the latest average of all Tamil Nadu election opinion poll DMK+ may win 149 seats, AIADMK+ 77 seats and Others 8 seats.

Google Search Update, 23rd March

2016: AIADMK: 56%, DMK: 44%

2019: AIADMK: 38%, DMK: 62%

Last One month: AIADMK: 38%, DMK: 62%

Last one week: AIADMK: 34%, DMK: 66% (Things getting worse for AIADMK)

Last 24 hours: AIADMK: 32%, DMK: 68%

disha · Post by **disha** » 24 Mar 2021 10:14

Kati wrote:It is true that people are extremely tight-lipped about the situation, which is very very unusual for the politically charged Bengali society. It reminds me of another Bengali state Tripura, where I witnessed the same situation in early 2017, even though the ruling LF was pretty confident about their victory.

Even anti-Modi mediapimps are throwing in towels in Bengal.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/asse ... 28088.html

...The saffron party, which is often accused of weakening democratic institutions at the national level, has emerged in a unique avatar here. Bengal is looking for a new boss, asserted Prasenjit Das from South 24 Parganas. “We are looking up to the BJP to restore our democratic right to vote and end corruption." Residents of his village, including Muslims, said they were able to move around freely only after the remarkable performance of the BJP in the 2019 elections....

disha · Post by **disha** » 24 Mar 2021 10:21

sudarshan wrote:Patil saar of 5Forty3 seems to have gone out of business because nobody supported him (except me).

Sirji, I think you are wrong

. I have supported him through and through as well. So that makes at least 2 of us. On his website he did show the support he received and I think it was substantial.

My support was unfortunately not enough. He's making tweets (Jack Dorkey has still not taken note I guess), but his company seems to have gone kaput. Pity, this Bengal election would have been of great interest to him, it's a perfect nail-biter.

Neither. He may be lying low. As a psephologist he does not have the wherewithal to cover state elections in detail. So he is concentrating on national elections and maybe offering his psephology services on the side. Like an independent observer.

And this is a good article to know what is happening in Didi's own heartland which supports PP's contentions.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/asse ... 28088.html

I will not be surprised if BJP crosses >160 in assembly elections and forms a government.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Mar 2021 17:35

I stand corrected. Looks pretty good

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Mar 2021 17:41

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Mar 2021 20:31

Is this JanKiBaat credible?

Rishi Bagree Flag of India
@rishibagree
·
9h
Latest West Bengal Survey by ABP Ananda*

Predicts:

BJP : 135
TMC : 141

Same channel gave 110 seats to BJP in earlier survey

This shows that BJP is gaining Momentum in the state and with PM Modi's and HM Amit Shah campaigning in slog overs it should be able to form Govt

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 25 Mar 2021 00:19

vijayk wrote:

This shows that BJP is gaining Momentum in the state and with PM Modi's and HM Amit Shah campaigning in slog overs it should be able to form Govt

Just as I bredicted earlier. Seeing the temporal change is what is important in the bolls. The actual numbers can be off a bit in a close election. So far so good.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 25 Mar 2021 01:46

TMC to retain Bengal, LDF Kerala; tough fight in Assam, DMK back in TN: Opinion poll

From Times Of India

mappunni · Post by **mappunni** » 25 Mar 2021 02:35

Talking to people on the ground, It will AIADMK scraping thru to get a majority in Tamizh Nadu. And this will be the beginning of the end of ThiMuka party as it's known.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 25 Mar 2021 02:46

mappunni wrote:Talking to people on the ground, It will AIADMK scraping thru to get a majority in Tamizh Nadu. And this will be the beginning of the end of ThiMuka party as it's known.

Would be fantastic ...

EPS did a great a job in TN w/o nonsense of DMK or even Jaya

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Mar 2021 06:28

Kati, India TV gives
BJP:TMC: Left 183:95:16

https://twitter.com/Chatterj1Asking/sta ... 04768?s=19
Interestin that Congress is considered Left in Bengal.

At this rate final result will be 200+

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Mar 2021 06:33

mappunni wrote:Talking to people on the ground, It will AIADMK scraping thru to get a majority in Tamizh Nadu. And this will be the beginning of the end of ThiMuka party as it's known.

Good. Confirms a few polls/surveys.
Such tight surveys mean the actual results will be decided by little margin of 500 to 100 votes!

Also heard DMK goofed up in parodying BJP manifesto.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 25 Mar 2021 06:36

yes. and they released a BJP like manifesto themselves.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 25 Mar 2021 08:36

ramana wrote:Kati, India TV gives
BJP:TMC: Left 183:95:16

https://twitter.com/Chatterj1Asking/sta ... 04768?s=19
Interestin that Congress is considered Left in Bengal.

At this rate final result will be 200+

fantastic

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 25 Mar 2021 09:40

Nobody would have predicted this even last year but BJP taking WB will be the most momentous occasion since GE 2019.
Hopefully they win Assam as well and Assam will serve as test bed for nrc.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 25 Mar 2021 10:40

ramana wrote:Kati, India TV gives
BJP:TMC: Left 183:95:16

https://twitter.com/Chatterj1Asking/sta ... 04768?s=19
Interestin that Congress is considered Left in Bengal.

At this rate final result will be 200+

Ramana Saar,
it is still a toss up. No wonder AS is throwing all the big guns in WB for campaigning. This 8 phase election will definitely favor BJP
as the resources could be shifted from one corner to another.

The most interesting thing is that ABP is taking a neutral ground suddenly for the last four days. This is a major corrupt and sly media house.
Rumors say that in the last three months Mumtaaz Banoo paid this media house Rs. 85 crores just to write biased articles in the garb of "analysis" and "edits", which the Bengali daily Ananda Bazar Patrika (the main arm of ABP group) did dutifully. But then, looks like this media house has smelled in the air about the changing mood of the voters, and showing two sides neck to neck.

The fact of the matter is: Out of 294 seats, in 145 seats Hindus are 80%+. In these seats BJP is expected to do very well, and most likely pick up 110 seats. The remaining 149 seats, where the minority votebank range from 20% to 80%, things are challenging for BJP. If the INC+LF+ISF combo can draw 5% to 10% minority votes then it would be a smooth sailing for BJP. However, BJP has fielded nine minority candidates, including Ms. Mafuja Khatun from Sagardighi (Murshidabad district). She is a state BJP VP, and all eyes are on her to see how well she does.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 25 Mar 2021 11:04

The big spoiler for TMC is going to be the "Bhaijaan" Abbas Siddiqi - Pirzada of Furfura Sharif.
If one goes through the hundreds of Bengali youtube videos which have been posted in the last two months then it appears that Bhaijaan's ISF (Indian Secular Front), which has joined hands with INC and LF, is going to be the TMC's nemesis. However, the worrisome thing is that half of the supporting comments are coming from Bangladesh with thousands of supporting comments are pouring in. ISF, which has taken the wind away from Owaisi's AIMIM in Bengal, will pick up a few seats, and will spoil TMC's chances in at least 20 seats. The battle-cry of his supporters is - "we are ready to sacrifice our lives for Bhaijaan" - sounds like a perfect jihadi cry, and most of his supporters are youngsters. ..... He is going to be a headache in days to come.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 25 Mar 2021 12:11

Kerala voters' list has duplicate names, state poll chief says 'nothing new'.
Moves on to find duplicate entries in Kerala electoral list by March 30.
Looks like there is a grand plan for election rigging in KL. For all you know there could even be Bangladeshis etc now having KL election/voter ID cards. 'Secularism' is now fully bloomed in Kerala, where in certain areas campaign posters (or wall paintings) are now in Urdu/Arabic

.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 25 Mar 2021 21:04

disha wrote: Sirji, I think you are wrong . I have supported him through and through as well. So that makes at least 2 of us. On his website he did show the support he received and I think it was substantial.

...

Neither. He may be lying low. As a psephologist he does not have the wherewithal to cover state elections in detail. So he is concentrating on national elections and maybe offering his psephology services on the side. Like an independent observer.

And this is a good article to know what is happening in Didi's own heartland which supports PP's contentions.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/asse ... 28088.html

I will not be surprised if BJP crosses >160 in assembly elections and forms a government.

Ooh, nice to meet his other supporter! Looks like, between the two of us, we managed to set him up with some substantial support

.

The indications in Bengal are very encouraging. I don't trust those TOI kind of surveys anyway, that crowd of "surveyors" waffles between underplaying the BJP to deliberately overplaying it, depending on their current strategy - sometimes they think they should demoralize BJP workers and voters, and sometimes they think they should make them overconfident. Then they suddenly remember that they have some "credibility" to project and protect, so they change tack. This time it seems they're trying the former strategy. None of those strategies seems to have worked so far, the voters just do their own thing.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 25 Mar 2021 21:48

India Today is the only one who accurately called HR,MP and MH from what i remember.

As for Dr Pravin Pati, many of us here contributed to his efforts in 2014 GE and 2017 UP assembly elections. After he switched to a subscription model , I had subscribed to his site 5forty3.in , the site had issues early on where it was not letting paid subscribers read the content but he later fixed it. He got a couple of calls wrong but nailed it again in 2019 GE. It is hard to run an independent psephology company on crowdsourcing and sustain it. Some media house needs to hire him to use his methodology, foot soldiers and analytics tools.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Mar 2021 22:07

vijayk wrote:
Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3

#ThalaiviTrailer is a good example of how "creatives" on the right side of the political divide can fail in their ultimate political objectives due to bad timing.
Remember Udta Punjab strategically released months before the Punjab elections?
I was thinking the same 2 days ago when I saw Kangana team advertising the movie ... Love, Struggle and Plitical fights on Jayalalitha movie heading. I thought how stupid!

Why is it stupid?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Mar 2021 22:10

mappunni wrote:Talking to people on the ground, It will AIADMK scraping thru to get a majority in Tamizh Nadu. And this will be the beginning of the end of ThiMuka party as it's known.

Scraping through is good. It will keep PMK and BJP in demand. And also BJP can 'get' some thi-moo-ka MLA's. Being 15 years out of power would rob DMK of all its power. Artiste is no longer to bring it back from the ashes.