Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 2010)

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svinayak
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by svinayak »

shyamd wrote:
I have also noted a systematic pullout of investments in UKstan and US by some investors. I think Buffett's visit to India and investments in China is a point in that direction. Al Waleed has removed most of his investments from the US and brought it back to KSA and spent more in China and India. Faber says he is pulling out of the market expecting a long decline, so is Jim Rogers. Al Fayed sold Harrods to Qatar govt entity (Sovereign Wealth funds are usually the last ones to get caught up when trouble starts). This from the guy said he would never sell Harrods. Apparently China started investing in US equities - a tell tale sign that things are looking bad if you ask me.

-----------------
Ramanaji I just feel no one is saying this openly but they are hinting at it with their investment moves, but I have deduced this by listening to interviews of many of these individuals.

All this cozying upto India in Europe/Middle East/US is getting ready for the next chapter of economic growth.
Today I just met an investor who is selling and buying house in the range of 20,000 dollars and renting them for positive cash flow in major cities. He says the market has collapsed in major cities.
No money is going to come for any large projects in US market for sometime.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

the core issue imo is whether the "west" can continue their current consumption and spending pattern and maintain their current std of living.

stability might be reached when the std of living in west declines by 30% from current exuberant levels. once they actually start saving, living modestly and producing things again, their high levels of education on a broad base should help. I guess countries like germany have always done that? but germany is tied to EU and not immune to painful disruptions.

I feel to survive in a situation where most of wests's living stds will drop 30% and a good chunk of bric et al move up into that band from below, cos have to rethink their product and solns to operate in that band more...we are already seeing some of that with GM and Ford focussing a lot on small and medium cars and developing nations than V8 pickups aimed at the US market only.

cos like bmw and apple that build only costly oroducts might take a hit. stripped off the hype, the consumer doesnt need the 100 bells and whistles of a bmw or the gorilla glass of appl. the indian and chinese psyches are different - there will be fanboys but even they will operate more prudently than the drones in bay area who worship at the temple of appl...the iHype is useless here unless they bring out phones @ 10-15k price point.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

good points shyamd & singha saars. (singhasaurus?)

Its no secret that the high-cost high-debt high-liability paschim is caught in a low-growth/stagnatory logjam for some yrs at least (at best). Smart money and insiders will mobilize investment flows accordingly. This is just the trickle before the dumb money flood, though. And the latter will have adverse consequences - e.g. runaway asset bubbles, currency and jobs volatility etc in the emerging world.

As for corp strategies going fwd, the center of the pyramid will be all the rage going fwd, admittedly. The rel weaker IP proctections in the emerging world ensure that fancy ripoffs of luxury goods with high bragging rights will doom profit extraction expectations of an order of 50%+.

Global supply chains, hitherto built on assumptions of 'produce where least costly' is also up for a shakeup with protectionism returning to the scene and upsetting many old globalization era bromides.

Even in the realm of culture and the arts, in another 10 yrs, emerging world film-makers, musicians and artistes will make avatar level masterpeices, IMHO.

INteresting world ahead. Pays to be cautious - keep the gates guarded, have capitak controls if necessary (I say they are necessary) before the dumb money floods in, have reasonable restrcitions on FDI in sensitive sectors, keep tight leash on phoren fin wizards movements anywhere in the country etc.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Christopher Sidor »

This was published in the Hindu Business Line newspaper on 16-July-2010.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/201 ... 971100.htm
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by shyam »

$600 Sale? Get Ready for Tax Form
Passage by Congress of the national health care legislation has had an unintended consequence to the nation’s coin collectors, vest-pocket dealers who buy and sell coins, and larger dealers who are frequent buyers of coins that collectors periodically liquidate as they trade up their collections for better coins, or simply sell to take a small profit or loss.

What has happened is that effective Jan. 1, 2012, the whole system of giving and receiving Internal Revenue Service 1099 forms will be turned on its head and all persons (including corporations) who are in business will now have to give 1099 tax reporting forms for coins and other goods that they sell as well as buy.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

Nothing new for thread regulars but still, for record's sake, here goes...
The Secret Engine Behind China’s Housing Bubble- The Ponzi Shark Loan Finance
In this article we will show how the ponzi shark loan scheme works and why we think the regime in China will fall. Our research is based on sources INSIDE CHINA

This is how this Ponzi scheme works:

Local officials, [required by] the government to produce double digit GDP growth numbers, give real estate developers permits to build housing projects in return for bribes. They also get bribes in return for allowing the shark loan companies to operate under their jurisdiction. Some of them are active partners in shark loan businesses. Every scheme has a ring leader whose job is to collect money from all the participants in the Ponzi scheme. When some of these Ponzi schemes blow up, the party leaders always get bailed out first.

Most of the funds that are collected in this classic Ponzi finance go to local land purchases and real estate development. Part of the funds are used in order to pay back the rolling loan. The short term interest rate in this black market is very high and ranges between 20%-150% annual rate. The sources of the Ponzi funds are diverse, as ordinary citizens, banks with corrupted bank officials, and state enterprises play the game.

A reader wrote to us this email two weeks ago, which triggered our in depth research:
“My hometown is Zhejiang, now I live in shanghai, my sister pledged her home to bank, she lived in Hangzhou, she bought her home around 500,0000rmb five years ago, now her home worth 2 million RMB, so she can get huge loan from bank, she gave this loan to a shark loan company with 30% return every year, she has been doing and living on this for 4 years, she is a middle school teacher, she earned 4000rmb per month, but with this lending arrangement, she has been able to buy a car, the interest income is 6 times of her salary, One of my cousin's father lost all his principle of 4 million since one scheme blow up in 2008. That is my personal experience. ...
Ho-hum. Those predicting doom are yet to be proven right. Right? This story too shall pass.... :lol: And so on and so forth.

IMO, Mish calls it correctly when he says:
China's property bubble is now on the verge of collapse. Transaction volumes are significantly down and declining volume is how property bubbles always burst. In simple terms, the pool of greater fools eventually runs out.

In China's case, the pool of fools is heavily involved in "loan shark" schemes where speculators hope property values rise fast enough to cover the interest.
Jai ho.

Added later:There's more (roaches where the 1 you just uncovered came from).
A typical Beijing flat costs about 22 times average incomes in the city, state media said Monday, highlighting the challenge China faces providing affordable housing amid a property boom.

A 90-square-metre (968-square-foot) apartment in Beijing cost 1.6 million yuan (236,000 dollars) last year, Boing boing dang dang yin yang shin shangthe China Daily said, citing an independent report.

That compared to an average household disposable income of around 71,000 yuan in 2009, according to city figures.
link

Yup, but let not all that take away from the fact that PRC is the greatest nation-culture civilization on the face of planet earth (throw in mars and venus for good measure as well), always has been and will be. PRC will ride out this storm in a teacup. It has survived tsunamis after all.
Jai ho.

Oh, wait....even more from the FT this time...
Cooling Property Market Tests Beijing’s Nerve
It feels like the calm before the storm at the Heavenly Famous Garden housing complex in Tongzhou, a booming commuter town on the outskirts of Beijing. The showroom is empty and for the past two months not a single flat has been sold, yet prices have not budged. Something has to give.
And something will give and keep on giving - the bottom of the barrel of the miracle cheeni khanomy. Or so some evil china-haters hope. Their hopes shall be dashed, crushed, powedered and then mixed with the morning's flesh gleen tea. bwahahaha
Last edited by Hari Seldon on 22 Jul 2010 12:48, edited 1 time in total.
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Buffett : "Human Freedom Rests On Gold Redeemable Money", Calls For Return To Gold Standard

Tyler Durden on 05/26/2010

Sometimes the apple does fall very, very far from the tree. A must read essay by Howard Buffett, father of the "legendary" investor who initially was so very much against derivatives then promptly changed his tune, discusses fiat money and gold, and concludes that "human freedom rests on gold redeemable money."

In this stunningly simple, straightforward, and flawless analysis, Buffett's father stresses the relation between money and freedom and contends that without a redeemable currency, an individual's freedom and one's access to property is dependent on goodwill of politicians. Buffett also says that paper money systems generally collapse and result in economic chaos. He goes on to observe that a gold standard would restrict government spending and give people greater power over the public purse.

Lastly, back in 1948, Howard Buffett, said this the "present" is the right time to restore the gold standard. Alas, 60 years later, his advice has still been largely ignored, and as a result we have a global economy that stands on the precipice of global default with runaway budget deficits across the entire developed world. Key quotes: "Is there a connection between Human Freedom and A Gold Redeemable Money?

At first glance it would seem that money belongs to the world of economics and human freedom to the political sphere. But when you recall that one of the first moves by Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler was to outlaw individual ownership of gold, you begin to sense that there may be some connection between money, redeemable in gold, and the rare prize known as human liberty. Also, when you find that Lenin declared and demonstrated that a sure way to overturn the existing social order and bring about communism was by printing press paper money, then again you are impressed with the possibility of a relationship between a gold-backed money and human freedom."

His conclusion is eerily prophetic with what is happening with US society currently: "I warn you that politicians of both parties will oppose the restoration of gold, although they may outwardly seemingly favor it. Unless you are willing to surrender your children and your country to galloping inflation, war and slavery, then this cause demands your support. For if human liberty is to survive in America, we must win the battle to restore honest money."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/howard ... d-standard
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ShivaS »

'Sublimation is a magic performed by governments which can print fiat money there by instantaneously vaporizing the wealth' BRF oldie


The western countries especially United States is consumption driven economy.
If the consumption comes down they have recessions, if the consumption goes negative they have depression. What you see today is that personal savings for the first time in US are inching upwards. That is to say people who have jobs are not spending are making very cautious entry into malls and more often into Wal-Mart.

The interest rates are no great motivation to save in US generally except in schemes like MMS (ok it stands for Madoff Multiplier Scheme aka PMS syndrome aka Ponzi Madoff Scheme)

Meanwhile the banks with TARP (Troubled Asses Relief Program) are not lending to individuals but lending back to Fed govt whose borrowing costs are ever increasing.
This yet another Ponzi scheme to loot in daylight. In nutshell people are not having money, those who have are spending prudently, the TARP has been defeated in its spirit and execution. (It took me three months to get LOC for my equity in US home which went down by 30% due to correction in home prices. What ever residual equity I built up over the years I intend to cash out via equity loan to invest in India). This way I hope to cover some lost ground.

So what is the way out?
For the US
a) Forget waging wars with out plunder and loot the vanquished.
b) If you can’t do the above (a) then you have to raise taxes for which you don’t have stomach for. Plus what ever recovery might be snuffed in the nascent stage.
c) The amazing thing the GOTUS is doing is when it is incapable of doing a or b or a and b. It is funding with its scarce and devalued money its own enemies namely TSP and Afghans. Worst even ready to co opt and buy out Taliban.
d) The US in its history had benefited a lot by indentured labor ( aka Slave) even today it does (viz undocumented hardworking Hispanics), sadly in the earlier days US used such labor to do manufacturing or producing commodities for the world to consume (WWII is a great example of captive markets catered to by indentured labor yes slavery was abolished but the vestige remained till 1964)
e) Then the prescription is GOTUS must not go to war, instead it should encourage wars among other nations, especially those who have accumulated some wealth, Like PRC, India, RSK Brazil. Don’t we see TSP being armed to teeth, for what? Not for civil war with P3C Orions, BVRs, Radars etc etc.
Sad thing is TSP gets them as aid not paid for.
f) The easiest is to export Arms as no new tooling or expansion of facilities are required. Are they not peddling Hornet, F-16 etc etc to India?

g) Paradigm change , if only US could discover invent some thing (other than Financial Fake Products) on which they have monopoly and the world needs it then it can revive.

h) The world has a vested interest in the welfare of US as long as it consumes irrationally, this brings us to the point that India should depend on its own citizens for consumption of goods there by shielding itself from being too closely coupled with US economy. To develop internal consumption, the citizens need to have earnings which exceed the basic needs there by having income for discretionary spending (aka disposable income)
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

^^^^ snow garu, is that really you??? Welcome home saar!
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

orions wrote:This was published in the Hindu Business Line newspaper on 16-July-2010.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/201 ... 971100.htm
Excellent article. Kindly write more about any posted link. Helps in various ways.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ramana »

Hari, SwamyG had posted it and the previous article here:

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 82#p907782
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

^^^ My bad, yes I noticed. The gurumurthy article had been posted a few days before.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Satya_anveshi »

Kudos to China.

Bond Sale? Don't Quote Us, Request Credit Firms
The nation's three dominant credit-ratings providers have made an urgent new request of their clients: Please don't use our credit ratings.
related opinion on ZH site
In an article dated July 12, I first reported that Dagong International Credit Rating Co., the largest credit rating agency of China, stripped the the U.S. and some other western nations of the AAA ratings given by its big three Western counterparts. Dagong also accused its Western rivals of not properly disclosing the repayment risk and causing the global financial crisis and current debt crisis in Europe.

This week, Guan Jianzhong, chairman of Dagong, made some more followed-up comments. In an interview with Financial Times, Guan further criticized the three dominant global credit firms--Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch—had become politicized, “too close to the clients”, and highly ideological thus losing their objectivity.

As if to confirm the Chinese slam (not their intentions, I'm sure), WSJ reported today the U.S.-based big three have made an urgent new request of their clients: Do not use our names on bond issues.

Why? Because the new Dodd-Frank financial reform law makes the agencies liable for their ratings effective immediately. So, instead of defending and standing behind their work, Moody's, S&P and Fitch essentially telegraphed this message to the world--"China is right - Do Not Trust Us."
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

That NJ is the leading (bleeding?) edge in the hurl towards bankruptcy for several local and state gubmints in the khanate is no secret. Just how bad got revealed, unwittingly perhaps, wittily more likely.

Newark mayor: No toilet paper for city offices (CNNMoney)
In a desperate attempt to fill a $70 million budget hole, Newark's mayor is taking a chainsaw to the town's budget -- even going so far as to cut toilet paper from the 2010 budget.

"Every single contract that does not go to the core function of our city in providing safe streets, providing fire protection, or other things to keep our city afloat will now be cut," Booker said during an emergency press conference Wednesday.

The reductions include not buying toilet paper for city offices, cutting the work week to four days for non-uniformed city workers, which is equivalent to a 20% pay cut, scrapping city holiday decorations, and closing city pools. These extreme measures, most of which will take effect beginning in August, are expected to save the city between $10 million and $15 million.

The city came to this impasse after the city council deferred a vote to create a Municipal Utilities Authority, a key component of Booker's method of balancing the budget. Because Newark could issue bonds on the Authority, it would have cash inflow to cover the immediate deficit. Without that infusion, the mayor said they can't make ends meet.
This is all naatak for naatak's sake. Nothing will come off it till the dragons in the room are addressed and appeased. Either the city goes bankrupt and thereby lights the path for several others to gloriously follow, or the feds bail them out with ever more wampum. Watch this space. Jai ho.

Added later:
Given the khanate's record in ingenuity and entrepreneurship, an ingenious indgenous solution will be found. Electronic toilet paper, anyone?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

china could make a profit here cloning japanese heated water mush washers at a deeply discounted price.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by derkonig »

Maybe Bakstan can export lotas....
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

brilliant out of the box thinking Sir! my soln was conventional, yours was judo and blur of movement guerilla marketing!
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

A Singaporean proposes an Asian G2.
Elsewhere there is takleef induced by heartburn linky. The author cites a trend of increasing Asian workers in Middle East. I am not sure where the author was all these decades, but first ME is in Asia, so there should be no takleef if "Asians" increase in "Asia", second "gelf" has been a closer and convenient destination for decades now. It is not a new trend.

India is an under-appreciated player in this new Asian Middle East. The Indian subcontinent has had close commercial ties with the Gulf for centuries, and India today has managed to cultivate good working relationships with all the countries in the Middle East, including Israel. While economic interests have provided the basis for many of those relationships, India has also taken on a modest military role. The Indian government has participated in Middle East peacekeeping operations since 1956. In addition, India has been increasing its bilateral military ties with all of the small countries in the Gulf. India is likely to establish a stronger, more assertive presence in the Gulf over the coming decades.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ramana »

SwamyG wrote:A Singaporean proposes an Asian G2.
Elsewhere there is takleef induced by heartburn linky. The author cites a trend of increasing Asian workers in Middle East. I am not sure where the author was all these decades, but first ME is in Asia, so there should be no takleef if "Asians" increase in "Asia", second "gelf" has been a closer and convenient destination for decades now. It is not a new trend.

India is an under-appreciated player in this new Asian Middle East. The Indian subcontinent has had close commercial ties with the Gulf for centuries, and India today has managed to cultivate good working relationships with all the countries in the Middle East, including Israel. While economic interests have provided the basis for many of those relationships, India has also taken on a modest military role. The Indian government has participated in Middle East peacekeeping operations since 1956. In addition, India has been increasing its bilateral military ties with all of the small countries in the Gulf. India is likely to establish a stronger, more assertive presence in the Gulf over the coming decades.
Was talking to a friend yesterday. He said whats remarkable is the surge in Indian presence in Africa and Middle East despite the 'cordon sanitaire' put on Indian free movment in the early decades after Independence. All those areas are realising the benign effect of the Indians: merchants, businessmen, labor and doctors.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

^^^
The question to ask is "Who do they hate/fear the most - Indians or Chinese?" ME and SE should be in the Bharatiya Sphere of Influence (BSI) for the benefit of desh. If one wants to be a dada of a street, then one should not allow neighboring street dada to enter the street. Zimple.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by paramu »

We should be able to do that without creating fear among others. When our neighboring nations have trouble, they should feel that they can approach Bharata for help without fearing exploitation, as many of them did in the past. Of course, we need to have our danda to warn that they can't screw us.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

TAE tweets
http://twitter.com/AutomaticEarth
Even the IMF thinks that the Sham stress tests in Europe are not credible http://bit.ly/dyVoLu Results this Friday, will the markets tank?
Bah, kuch nahi hoga. Every central bank worth its game in the emerged world is into QEing (like GUBOing).
ECRI leading index stands at -10.5!! Double dip (actually just one dip) is in the bag! 100% accuracy in predicting recessions over 42 years
Uh-oh. Not that a double dip (if there ever was a true recovery in the 1st place) would surprise any here.
What contempt for the intelligence of the people. European banks in a worse case scenario would need to raise only Eur 3.5 Bn #fail

7 banks failed the farce tests. 5 Spanish banks, 1 Greek bank and 1 German bank. In a real stress test, all the banks would be underwater.
And let's stop expecting real tests, shall we. Get real, about time.
The economic downturn has left more Americans with the daunting prospect of fighting court battles without a lawyer http://bit.ly/dtc4wR
I see an outsourcing opportunity for desi lawyers and new age body shops....
Abu Dhabi Foresees $23 Billion Budget Deficit in 2010 http://bit.ly/dc9V1k Not enough oil in the kitty? ;)
'gelf' prosperity under peril.
In a deflationary spiral, as credit dries up, peripheral countries and eventually the center will be forced to issue debt at v. high yields
captain obvious to the rescue...
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

the man knows what's coming down the pike so much so that even he has jumped on the wreckless deficit spending bandwagon.

perhaps he has concluded since there is no intent to repay the debt, may as well go down in a blaze of glory. I'm increasingly beginning to feel that he may be the last Federal Reserve chairman. This banking cartel racket known as the federal reserve will be wound up within the next 5 years and dissolved.

-----------
Bernanke Urges Congress to Renew Bush Tax Cuts
Thursday, 22 Jul 2010 08:13 PM
By: David A. Patten

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke dropped a major bombshell on Democrats seeking massive new revenues to narrow the deficit, announcing Thursday that he favors preserving the Bush administration tax cuts in order to help a faltering U.S. economy.

“In the short term I would believe that we ought to maintain a reasonable degree of fiscal support, stimulus for the economy,” Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee. “There are many ways to do that. This is one way.”

Bernanke's statement put him directly at odds with White House officials and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who favor raising taxes on wealthy Americans by letting the tax cuts the Bush administration passed in 2001 and 2003 expire.

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/bernank ... /id/365426
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ramana »

He is right. Removing the tax credits will reduce money flow int eh moribund economy. It will be like raising interest rates.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

^^^
The tax cuts did not work earlier, like the bail out money that was like water thrown on a rock in Saharan desert.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ramana »

From what I hear, there is no money to lubricate the economy. All is being hoarded like rations in yesteryear India. or being used to buy Tbills. So if the money from tax cuts is dried up even the slow movement will seize up. In affect it will be derailer and not an enabler.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Prem »

China may switch to currency basket for forex rate
Central bank official suggests move away from dollar as benchmark
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china- ... 2010-07-23
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- A top Chinese central bank official suggested switching away from the U.S. dollar as a benchmark for the yuan's foreign-exchange rate, switching instead to a basket of currencies, according to remarks published Thursday. In comments posted to the People's Bank of China Web site, the central bank's Deputy Gov. Hu Xiaolian said using a basket of currencies from the nation's top trading partners would allow the Chinese yuan to better reflect trading fundamentals."Compared with pegging to a single currency, the exchange-rate regime with reference to a basket of currencies will help adjust exports and imports, current account, and balance of payment in a more effective manner," she said.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by amdavadi »

Unkil will repeat the mistake japan made in 90's...saving is up & credit card spending is going down month after month...

OT
Ramana sir ji, we should have economy discussion during next brf meet..
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

ramana wrote:From what I hear, there is no money to lubricate the economy. All is being hoarded like rations in yesteryear India. or being used to buy Tbills. So if the money from tax cuts is dried up even the slow movement will seize up. In affect it will be derailer and not an enabler.
So where did all the TARP, Bail-out ityadi money go (rhetoric). There was huge talk about how a liquidity crisis existed and Unkil had to bail them out, else it would be time for Matsaya avataram ityadi. What happened? There was liquid pumped like Niagara falls into the system, and like a black hole the Corporations absorbed without a stream for Jane and Jone. A bank now fears another bank as a cotton farmer would fear a matchbox trader.

The moment I see the word "tax", I resign to the fact that the discussion is going to eventually lead to ideologies and politics. Unkil is in a very tight spot. He needs to create jobs, but he needs funds to create the jobs. Where will he go for the funds? More printing?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

It's not fair to destroy the dollar and cheat responsible savers! - Ron Paul to Ben Bernanke

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Last edited by Neshant on 25 Jul 2010 02:39, edited 1 time in total.
ShivaS
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ShivaS »

Cut defense funding
Cut aid to TSP
Refuse T bill purchase by Bank like institutions (Bank cost of capital is zero, while Beta is increasing and banks invest in T bills reaping Beta times Tbills which is absolutely risk free assuming GOTUS does not default, if the bank is loaded with bad debts and NPA the you can calculate how many years it will take the banks to correct their books and then think of financing individuals. Biggest category of loans are 1) Mortgage, 2) Student Loans 3) Auto finance 4) SBU.

The most profitable were Mortgage, (under written Freddie Mac Fannie May) Student Loans with federal subsidy ( and underwritten) with margins of 20% and above, credit card anywhere between 25 to 30% interest rate.

With the tightening of screws on most of the above, the banks pendulum has swung to other extreme of not lending at all....
So the question of discovery is as bright as another Spanish fly based elixir
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

ShivaS wrote:Bank cost of capital is zero, while Beta is increasing and banks invest in T bills reaping Beta times Tbills which is absolutely risk free assuming GOTUS does not default,
just a fancy way of giving away taxpayer monney.
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Financing & banking crap needs to be done away with and the focus should shift to researching, developing, manufacturing & marketing real products before its too late.

Fiddling around with interest rates, counterfeiting money, inflating, rigging the stock market, publishing fake statistics, more spending & taxing, transferring losses of crooks onto the backs of the productive and handouts to public sector unions & their pensions are ruining what's left of the real economy.

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The Middle Class in America Is Radically Shrinking

The 22 statistics detailed here prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the middle class is being systematically wiped out of existence in America.

• 83 percent of all U.S. stocks are in the hands of 1 percent of the people.
• 61 percent of Americans "always or usually" live paycheck to paycheck, which was up from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.
• 66 percent of the income growth between 2001 and 2007 went to the top 1% of all Americans.
• 36 percent of Americans say that they don't contribute anything to retirement savings.
• A staggering 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved up for retirement.
• 24 percent of American workers say that they have postponed their planned retirement age in the past year.
• Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008.
• Only the top 5 percent of U.S. households have earned enough additional income to match the rise in housing costs since 1975.
• For the first time in U.S. history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together.
• In 1950, the ratio of the average executive's paycheck to the average worker's paycheck was about 30 to 1. Since the year 2000, that ratio has exploded to between 300 to 500 to one.
• As of 2007, the bottom 80 percent of American households held about 7% of the liquid financial assets.
• The bottom 50 percent of income earners in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.
• Average Wall Street bonuses for 2009 were up 17 percent when compared with 2008.
• In the United States, the average federal worker now earns 60% MORE than the average worker in the private sector. (including pensions that would be more like 300% or more)
• The top 1 percent of U.S. households own nearly twice as much of America's corporate wealth as they did just 15 years ago.
• In America today, the average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks.
• More than 40 percent of Americans who actually are employed are now working in service jobs, which are often very low paying.
• or the first time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43 million Americans in 2011.
• This is what American workers now must compete against: in China a garment worker makes approximately 86 cents an hour and in Cambodia a garment worker makes approximately 22 cents an hour.
• Approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.
• Despite the financial crisis, the number of millionaires in the United States rose a whopping 16 percent to 7.8 million in 2009.
• The top 10 percent of Americans now earn around 50 percent of our national income.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/th ... 20657.html?
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

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India should be careful not to have its media turn into a CNN type propaganda news outlet - where the media only pushes the govt's point of view and downplay/portrays anyone pointing out corruption as a kook.
shyamd
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by shyamd »

ramana wrote:From what I hear, there is no money to lubricate the economy. All is being hoarded like rations in yesteryear India. or being used to buy Tbills. So if the money from tax cuts is dried up even the slow movement will seize up. In affect it will be derailer and not an enabler.
Was predicted... a big flight to safety. T-bills will protect against deflation. Watch the strength of the dollar increase over time. USD is the reserve currency, and that is what people will flight to when things go very bad, despite the problems associated with the US economy. People investing in T-bills and all the banks/MNCs are all saving money - not spending. All this was predicted and on the cards. Like I said - people are getting out. Companies are doing IPO's to reduce exposure.

Safest thing to do now is to hold cash and save your money.
svinayak
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by svinayak »

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul466.html
There are various reasons that the world economy has been globalized and the problems we face are worldwide. We cannot understand what we're facing without understanding fiat money and the long-developing dollar bubble.

There were several stages. From the inception of the Federal Reserve System in 1913 to 1933, the Central Bank established itself as the official dollar manager. By 1933, Americans could no longer own gold, thus removing restraint on the Federal Reserve to inflate for war and welfare.

By 1945, further restraints were removed by creating the Bretton-Woods Monetary System making the dollar the reserve currency of the world. This system lasted up until 1971. During the period between 1945 and 1971, some restraints on the Fed remained in place. Foreigners, but not Americans, could convert dollars to gold at $35 an ounce. Due to the excessive dollars being created, that system came to an end in 1971.

It's the post Bretton-Woods system that was responsible for globalizing inflation and markets and for generating a gigantic worldwide dollar bubble. That bubble is now bursting, and we're seeing what it's like to suffer the consequences of the many previous economic errors.

Ironically in these past 35 years, we have benefited from this very flawed system. Because the world accepted dollars as if they were gold, we only had to counterfeit more dollars, spend them overseas (indirectly encouraging our jobs to go overseas as well) and enjoy unearned prosperity. Those who took our dollars and gave us goods and services were only too anxious to loan those dollars back to us. This allowed us to export our inflation and delay the consequences we now are starting to see.

But it was never destined to last, and now we have to pay the piper. Our huge foreign debt must be paid or liquidated. Our entitlements are coming due just as the world has become more reluctant to hold dollars. The consequence of that decision is price inflation in this country – and that's what we are witnessing today. Already price inflation overseas is even higher than here at home as a consequence of foreign central banks' willingness to monetize our debt.

Printing dollars over long periods of time may not immediately push prices up – yet in time it always does. Now we're seeing catch-up for past inflating of the monetary supply. As bad as it is today with $4 a gallon gasoline, this is just the beginning. It's a gross distraction to hound away at “drill, drill, drill” as a solution to the dollar crisis and high gasoline prices. It's okay to let the market increase supplies and drill, but that issue is a gross distraction from the sins of deficits and Federal Reserve monetary shenanigans.

This bubble is different and bigger for another reason. The central banks of the world secretly collude to centrally plan the world economy. I'm convinced that agreements among central banks to “monetize” U.S. debt these past 15 years have existed, although secretly and out of the reach of any oversight of anyone – especially the U.S. Congress that doesn't care, or just flat doesn't understand. As this “gift” to us comes to an end, our problems worsen. The central banks and the various governments are very powerful, but eventually the markets overwhelm them when the people who get stuck holding the bag (of bad dollars) catch on and spend the dollars into the economy with emotional zeal, thus igniting inflationary fever.

This time – since there are so many dollars and so many countries involved – the Fed has been able to “paper” over every approaching crisis for the past 15 years, especially with Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, which has allowed the bubble to become history's greatest.

The mistakes made with excessive credit at artificially low rates are huge, and the market is demanding a correction. This involves excessive debt, misdirected investments, over-investments, and all the other problems caused by the government when spending the money they should never have had. Foreign militarism, welfare handouts and $80 trillion entitlement promises are all coming to an end. We don't have the money or the wealth-creating capacity to catch up and care for all the needs that now exist because we rejected the market economy, sound money, self-reliance and the principles of liberty.
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

shyamd wrote: Was predicted... a big flight to safety.

There is no flight to safety. Its a term invented by the US media propaganda team at the behest of the American govt.

I'd like to invent a new term - "Flight from garbage"

There is a soon to come flight from garbage which will be a flight from equities and other bad investments like real estate. Flight from garbage may lead to the USD for those ex-garbage holders but only because that is the default option.

Flight from garbage does not equal to flight to safety even though the mid term outcome be the same.
Carl_T
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Carl_T »

I wonder if gold is in a bubble.


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