Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

[YashG]

To take on Cheen, US has two strategies: Offensive & Defensive. Quad is the defensive strategy.

In Asia, offensive is always Islam. Only Islam will take on other powers. Problem is that due to American presence in Afghanistan, Cheen has been able to make a lot of headway among the Islamic countries. America was standing in the way between a clash between Islam and Cheen. By US exiting from Afghanistan, USA has taken itself out of the equation. So, the lightning of Jihad will now fall elsewhere - either Russia, China, Shia Iran or India. India is probably the likely direction of Ghazwa, but it may be possible to direct it to Cheen also.


India could become collateral damage! We need to be careful.

I so much agree to what you say - actually I had been thinking of ths since wuite sometime.

By exiting afg - #1 US has freed one axis of its engagement & now can fully focus on China & #2 By creating a situation of uncertainty next to Xinjiang - US will now force China to enagage on another axis. Taliban is not predictable - China can never fully dream to control or contain Taliban. Yes India is just a collateral damage - but in US policy circles India's insistence to be nt drawn in Afg is taken very favorably. So the guys thr said - fine, dont get involved - its your choice - but you will not like the consequences when we leave.

But this definitely increase headache for China.

[Deans]

I so much agree to what you say - actually I had been thinking of ths since wuite sometime.

By exiting afg - #1 US has freed one axis of its engagement & now can fully focus on China & #2 By creating a situation of uncertainty next to Xinjiang - US will now force China to enagage on another axis. Taliban is not predictable - China can never fully dream to control or contain Taliban.
But this definitely increase headache for China.

I see it as more than just leaving Afghanistan.
US has left the Middle East. Its forces are not engaged to any significant extent in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan and they are not bothered about Libya and Yemen. Nor is there talk of confronting Iran.
That's a huge amount of force that can potentially be deployed against China (2 Carrier battle groups for e.g.).

In Europe, if Russia has to be confronted, rest of NATO will have to take up a greater share.
For the US, China has now become the new USSR.

[chetak]

one faded but still hopeful and entitled mohtarma

[RKumar]

Unfortunately, USA and Eu are still seeking the answers using the Napaki inputs so they will spend another decade to understand the situation. Together with USA, we should recover the PoK so we have a direct land as well as air route to Afg. This would enable the UN to use a secure link to take out/destroy all kinds of unofficial weapons while ensuring that UN forces can get everything they need without losing major supplies on the way.

It has to be seen if USA/NATO can see things without Napaki lens, they should have done it 2 decades back. We did not put our soldiers then and we will not put now but we can provide a reliable support infrastructure. The win for India - we get PoK, Win for Afg- get peace and stability and win for the rest of the world - finally safe havens of terrors will dismantle.

[sanjaykumar]

Why not move to Taliban controlled territory?

Roar like a lion in India……..

[RKumar]

Sir, in that case whole problem is ours and world/UN will go dancing and signing... so it has to be a world problem. We know how to keep our borders safe. There might be on and off terror acts but no dominant terrors owning the landscape.

[nam]

Putin babu has gone all stateman and called on countries not to "interfere" in Afghanistan! Looks like Pak has offered a deal..and we might be the only one supporting NA. Russia could pressurize Tajikstan not to provide support, while the Chinis would try to buy the cavemen out. We need to keep the Tajiks on our side with exchanging few bags, if required. The northern areas should be kept clear of the cavemen to continue our influence and provide an escape route to the people under the rule of those cavemen.

Our interests will Russia are diverging. Hope this translates in to less weapon purchase and off the "non-alignment" and "multi-polar" nonsense... Time to face off the Chinis and make some money in the process.

[kit]

one faded but still hopeful and entitled mohtarma

If she loves taliban so much why dont she move over to Afghanistan ?

[RKumar]

Maybe, taliban should setup online immigration office - families from world over can migrate to a pure Islamic country. They will be able to practice and live in Allah‘s own country.

[Cain Marko]

one faded but still hopeful and entitled mohtarma

Can't such speech be considered a threat to national interest/security and said person be taken in custody?

[chetak]

one faded but still hopeful and entitled mohtarma

Can't such speech be considered a threat to national interest/security and said person be taken in custody?

Yes

[Cain Marko]

Can't such speech be considered a threat to national interest/security and said person be taken in custody?

Yes

But that will just give her more attention I guess. Just noticed that in her speech there was hardly any clapping, and the camera didn't really pan the audience. Seems like nobody was listening. Perhaps all this shrill noise is a result of her increasing irrelevance?

[YashG]

Putin babu has gone all stateman and called on countries not to "interfere" in Afghanistan!

Russia is having a schadenfreude moment. But all said and done - a volatile taliban isnt in Russia's interest. Putin also realises that. Talibs r Unpredictable. We need to understand the nature of afgani tribes. They think just one tribe ( their own) at a time. Afghanistan is not a strong national concept - atleast not stronger than their tribal identities - so it is unlikely that taliban govt can act in any coherent way. They can indirectly precipitate terrorist groups.

Our interests will Russia are diverging. Hope this translates in to less weapon purchase and off the "non-alignment" and "multi-polar" nonsense... Time to face off the Chinis and make some money in the process.

Besides India, Russia doesn't have any strong allies. Nobody trusts China, not even Russia. Its only a temporary cooperation of convenience. The only thing that Putin needs desperately is actually European/US favors. Russian economy is in doldrums. Stabilising Russian economy will help putin keep his position. If West were to strike a deal with Russia - it will not look east.

Indian alignment with West isnt something that Russia can complain about, practically Russian diplomats will be fool to expect India to stick to Russia at the expense of aignment with west. It is only that Russia wants Indian money through arms import ( Russian tantrums are because of it). We were the only major nations not condemning Russia in crimea - that kind of support wont come from any other country than China. Putin's options are limited. He can afford to throw tantrums but not loose India for good. Isolating Indians in Afghanistan are tantrums.

[chetak]

^^^^^^^


Putin is uncomfortable with his own muslims talibanizing which is what the talibs will do to him by arming, backing and radicalizing them

the amerikis and the pakis will help out the talibs for leverage, and out of spite to get back at putin.

He is just playing nice

[g.sarkar]

Maybe, taliban should setup online immigration office - families from world over can migrate to a pure Islamic country. They will be able to practice and live in Allah‘s own country.

She will be welcomed with open arms in Afghanistan, if she brings with her a fraction of the wealth that she made in India.
Gautam

[Rishirishi]

one faded but still hopeful and entitled mohtarma

If she loves taliban so much why dont she move over to Afghanistan ?

This sentiment will be used. Perhaps it is time to make sure Kashmir reflects the ethnic diversity of India.

[rsingh]

^^^^^^^


Putin is uncomfortable with his own muslims talibanizing which is what the talibs will do to him by arming, backing and radicalizing them

the amerikis and the pakis will help out the talibs for leverage, and out of spite to get back at putin.

He is just playing nice

Mind you Russia is staying there as long ss human rights are observed. It means Russia can go out any fine day. That is very smart position .......diplomatically.

[rajpa]

one faded but still hopeful and entitled mohtarma

If she loves taliban so much why dont she move over to Afghanistan ?

If she moved to Havegunistan, she will have to cook for a few hundred talibunnies in her kitchen, because women politicians are not allowed there. If she is a good cook, she might survive. Why take the trouble, yeah? After all, you can thrive being a bad woman politician in India!

[williams]

If she moved to Havegunistan, she will have to cook for a few hundred talibunnies in her kitchen, because women politicians are not allowed there. If she is a good cook, she might survive. Why take the trouble, yeah? After all, you can thrive being a bad woman politician in India!

Nevertheless Bunnies have given every delusional closet terrorists and Pakis some hope that they can throw India out of Kashmeer.

[Vips]

one faded but still hopeful and entitled mohtarma

If she loves taliban so much why dont she move over to Afghanistan ?

She should do nikah mutah (temporary nikah) with different talibani fighters where arrangement will be for one night with each talibani. She can thus provide 'Halal service' to the taliban

The Jihadi bitch, how did she dare to threaten India?

[rsingh]

Al-hijda and CNN are claiming that this is biggest evacuation in the history of mankind. If I am wrong we have been doing better than this for ages.

[rsingh]

It is surprising, how well intrenched are these leeches in Indian society. Those who were crying about treatment of these leaders are no where to be seen.And then there was this Abdula harami who was inviting China to occupy them. I know that these leeches will be again invited to talk shows and book launches. I wish we had a contract with Talibans to grant 100 resident visas. I wish MEA makes this announcement. People are leaving Afganistan. Talibans want to populate depopulate area of Kandahar and Kabul.

[eklavya]

The Ides of August

Americans like to think of ourselves as having valiantly tried to bring democracy to Afghanistan. Afghans, so the narrative goes, just weren’t ready for it, or didn’t care enough about democracy to bother defending it. Or we’ll repeat the cliche that Afghans have always rejected foreign intervention; we’re just the latest in a long line.

I was there. Afghans did not reject us. They looked to us as exemplars of democracy and the rule of law. They thought that’s what we stood for.

And what did we stand for? What flourished on our watch? Cronyism, rampant corruption, a Ponzi scheme disguised as a banking system, designed by U.S. finance specialists during the very years that other U.S. finance specialists were incubating the crash of 2008. A government system where billionaires get to write the rules.

Is that American democracy?

Well…?

Hamid Karzai. During my conversations in the early 2000s about the Pakistani government’s role in the Taliban’s initial rise, I learned this breathtaking fact: Hamid Karzai, the U.S. choice to pilot Afghanistan after we ousted their regime, was in fact the go-between who negotiated those very Taliban’s initial entry into Afghanistan in 1994.


It is my belief that Karzai may have been a key go-between negotiating this surrender, just as he did in 1994, this time enlisting other discredited figures from Afghanistan's past, as they were useful to him. Former co-head of the Afghan government, Abdullah Abdullah, could speak to his old battle-buddies, the Mujahideen commanders of the north and west. You may have heard some of their names as they surrendered their cities in recent days: Ismail Khan, Dostum, Atta Muhammad Noor. The other person mentioned together with Karzai is Gulbuddin Hikmatyar -- a bona fide Taliban commander, who could take the lead in some conversations with them and with the ISI.

As Americans have witnessed in our own context — the #MeToo movement, for example, the uprising after the murder of George Floyd, or the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol — surprisingly abrupt events are often months or years in the quiet making. The abrupt collapse of 20 years’ effort in Afghanistan is, in my view, one of those cases.

Thinking this hypothesis through, I find myself wondering: what role did U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad play? And old friend of Karzai's, he was the one who ran the negotiations with the Taliban for the Trump Administration, in which the Afghan government was forced to make concession after concession. Could President Biden truly have found no one else for that job, to replace an Afghan-American with obvious conflicts of interest, who was close to former Vice President Dick Cheney and who lobbied in favor of an oil pipeline through Afghanistan when the Taliban were last in power?

[nam]

The cavemen capturing Northern region is hot air. Check out the terrain map of Afghanistan. We need to keep the Tajiks on our side with large bag of cash. Arms like ATGM, RPG can be moved across through the mountains, right up to Pansjir & Kabul.

No to mention, we can fire Nirbhay through the Karakoram and other mountain valleys from Ladakh to pound cavemen logistics points, if required.

[YashG]

Only slightly reported but if you help rural afghanis make money through poppy cultivation - they would want to help you.

Its economics stupid.

Ghani and US establishment had no way to facilitate this but the talibs did.

Going forward, talibs will be a headache for all surrounding nations that will become conduits/red points of narcotics. Narco trade will empower off-axis groups in russia (Uzb, tajik, turkmen), pakistan and iran. Atleast russia is just playing nice (as some said earlier in this forum too) but in sometime iran, russia and even china will have find a way on what to do with the worst of taliban. Narco economy aint going away for sure.

In sometime all of these countries having schadenfreude over American debacele will have to start worrying ( or they already are privately). Only Pakistan will be somewhat benefited - that too only if the gains of instigating terror in India are more than the havoc caused by TTP/Frontier areas in pakistan. And there is no guarantee that will be certain outcome. TTP is somewhat anti-china. So while US is surely having a soviet moment in Afghanistan, in an year ppl in US will forget all of this but the energies of China, Pakistan and Russia (also India - no denying that we will face the brunt too) will be somewhat engaged in Afghanistan. This is a yet another season of The Great Game.

[Vips]

With advanced remote sensing satellites isn't it easy to see where poppy is being cultivated? It would be easy to bomb the shit out of these places. No Poppy - Talibs will want finance from China or Pakistan or else trouble in Lal Masjid and East Turkistan......

[anupmisra]

one faded but still hopeful and entitled mohtarma

Can't such speech be considered a threat to national interest/security and said person be taken in custody?

Indian leadership from both sides of the aisles should not take this lightly.

If ever there was a more direct and explicit threat by an individual or a political organization to incite and mount an insurgency or initiate insurrection against a legitimately elected government with the purpose to create disturbance or break up a legally formed nation, please let me know.

In the US such a person or persons would have been arrested and a case filed against that individual or the organization he/she represented. The least that organization can do is to disown that individual unless it wishes to be declared anti state and disbarred.

Case in point, the attack on the US Capitol in January 2021. The Insurrection Act of 1807 is a United States federal law empowered the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

If the Indian penal and justice system or even the parliament is unable to act, that inaction will reflect their inability to apply and maintain rule of law.

My two cents.

[anupmisra]

The Jihadi bitch, how did she dare to threaten India?

Indian lawmakers should do not treat her threat as a joke or a misguided rant. She is serious.

[Deans]

With advanced remote sensing satellites isn't it easy to see where poppy is being cultivated? It would be easy to bomb the shit out of these places. No Poppy - Talibs will want finance from China or Pakistan or else trouble in Lal Masjid and East Turkistan......

The US and NATO tried to eradicate it for 20 years and failed. They had boots on the ground and incentives to farmers to give up opium.

[chetak]

With advanced remote sensing satellites isn't it easy to see where poppy is being cultivated? It would be easy to bomb the shit out of these places. No Poppy - Talibs will want finance from China or Pakistan or else trouble in Lal Masjid and East Turkistan......

who will bell the cat.

To get the bomb trucks (or use missiles) to these poppy fields, one has to overfly hostile territory, which is a warlike act by itself. afghanistan is completely landlocked as is well known to everyone

There will be jehadi blowback

so it has to be the effort of a new "coalition" in which case, the whole sordid afghan saga will start all over again.

alternately, payoff the warlords not to grow opium, in which they get the money without growing the stuff, which is what they want because, then, legitimate govts become their best customers, cutting out the middlemen entirely and saving the warlords the expense of the supply and distribution chain, increasing their profits and entirely eliminating the risk of loss

and knowing the ummah and their taqiya, the warlord guys will not only take the money, they will also grow opium on the sly

the major export routes of these drugs are India and cheen.

The stuff gets out via TN/KER coast and via hong kong and myanmarese ports which are cheen controlled

[YashG]

While our minds are boiling over the import of Mufti's statement. Lets try to see why is she saying this? And you'd know the problem lies elsewhere.

Muftis, just like Abdullahs are the power brokers in Kashmir - they are use to all games of deal making, diplomacy and also fruits that aligning with a larger state comes. These are people the Indian state can make deals with. On the other hand deals with these will be useful only if they are able to hold influence in Kashmiri Awaam. If they loose their legitimacy, you dont have people to make deals with.

Just like Indian politicians (Like Shiv sena in Maharashtra will make noise on Marathi Manoos), their exhortations are an instrument to stay legitimate in the eyes of awaam. So the point is - what is that Muftis have to say in order to stay legitimate ?

Just what she said and we all didnt like.

If she drives legitimacy by saying this - then we should know what resonates with the local junta in Kashmir. That resonation of separatism is our core problem. We can do way with Mufti for sure - but what next? As it is Kashmiris dont participate well in election process - free & fair elections is one way in which we bring legitimacy as to why Kashmir is integral part of Indian democracy. We need parties to participate in democratic processes. U do away with Mufti - U will be left with Hurriyat as next Kashmiri representation. Even more separatist.

Solve the disease, not the symptom.

[chetak]

this is for the for coked up woke Indians....

[chetak]

[rsingh]

While our minds are boiling over the import of Mufti's statement. Lets try to see why is she saying this? And you'd know the problem lies elsewhere.

Muftis, just like Abdullahs are the power brokers in Kashmir - they are use to all games of deal making, diplomacy and also fruits that aligning with a larger state comes. These are people the Indian state can make deals with. On the other hand deals with these will be useful only if they are able to hold influence in Kashmiri Awaam. If they loose their legitimacy, you dont have people to make deals with.

Just like Indian politicians (Like Shiv sena in Maharashtra will make noise on Marathi Manoos), their exhortations are an instrument to stay legitimate in the eyes of awaam. So the point is - what is that Muftis have to say in order to stay legitimate ?

Just what she said and we all didnt like.

If she drives legitimacy by saying this - then we should know what resonates with the local junta in Kashmir. That resonation of separatism is our core problem. We can do way with Mufti for sure - but what next? As it is Kashmiris dont participate well in election process - free & fair elections is one way in which we bring legitimacy as to why Kashmir is integral part of Indian democracy. We need parties to participate in democratic processes. U do away with Mufti - U will be left with Hurriyat as next Kashmiri representation. Even more separatist.

Solve the disease, not the symptom.

Wrong assumption. Mauftis and Abdullahs are NOT power brokers. New people with progressive thoughts are to be brought in. Secondly Shiv Sena NOT about breaking country. Shiv sena never take order from Pakistan or ask China to take over.

[rsingh]

With advanced remote sensing satellites isn't it easy to see where poppy is being cultivated? It would be easy to bomb the shit out of these places. No Poppy - Talibs will want finance from China or Pakistan or else trouble in Lal Masjid and East Turkistan......

The US and NATO tried to eradicate it for 20 years and failed. They had boots on the ground and incentives to farmers to give up opium.

Poppy growing will not bring more than 500 million USD. Talibanistan will need at least 10 billion/ year to function.

[Tanaji]

In the meanwhile, floggings for not being peaceful enough by wearing jeans in the glorious Emirate of Afghanistan:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ta ... ar-AANBkSr

RSingh ji:

Shiv sena of today is an extortion racket pure and simple. They will take orders from China if it benefits them in the slightest. And this is coming from a former Shiv Sena supporter who never used to miss any of BT’s meetings and used to hang out with them.

[sanjaykumar]

Tanaji, you must be more respectful of other people’s culture.

[Najunamar]

While our minds are boiling over the import of Mufti's statement. Lets try to see why is she saying this? And you'd know the problem lies

Solve the disease, not the symptom.

You need to address both. Any emergency triage will need to take care of immediate stabilization such as stopping the bleeding. This is a false choice, you will need to act immediately and not take chai biskoot.

[rsingh]

Tana ji,
Corruption is everywhere when we are dealing with big contracts ( even jn ,Japan). When I was in Mumbai I was told by many common men that city is peaceful because of Shiv Sena. Otherwise every Abdul wanted to be bhai. You pay everywhere. In Belgium you pay 30 % inherent tax. If I am earning more then 50 000 Euro I pay 50 % tax. My tax money is used bring Talban back to power. Free unlimited visa to top officials. Because Belgian budget deficit can not be more then 3%, extra deficit is covered by new taxes. It us publicly announced that Govt has to find 2 billions to cover the extra deficit. It is recovered from extra taxes rules. Do you know I have to pay for the visit of tax, VAT and Hygenic controllers? I extortion in its pure form. I am saying that with time you be paying to such extra money in the form of taxes.
You know why there could be no flood in Tokyo. How come western cities are so clear You atudy the local legal extortion system and everything will be clear to you.. we want a cleal cities than be ready to pay legal extortion.in West people die of depression because of huge taxes. Do you know why people enjoy weekends? For most of the westerners weekends are no working day and are no worries days. There are no letters delivered on weekends
So I think Mumbai with Shiv Sena is better than without Shiv Sena.if not Shiv Sena you will be paying extortion mone to small time bhai log.
Do not forget everybody pays extortion money.

[rsingh]

I hope I am not hurting religious sentiments with my posts.