Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

[vera_k]

Been puzzling over why President Biden would run the risk of a disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan, and then remembered this one. Good possibility of Biden being awarded the Nishan-e-Pakistan this time round.

Pakistan gives awards to Biden, Lugar for support

[YashG]

Wrong assumption. Mauftis and Abdullahs are NOT power brokers. New people with progressive thoughts are to be brought in. Secondly Shiv Sena NOT about breaking country. Shiv sena never take order from Pakistan or ask China to take over.

New people with progressive thoughts to be brought in - good idea. But that's not happening since many years. Political leaders emerge organically in a society - if they do Kashmir have free and fair elections but look at the number of parties that contest.

Shiv Sena is not related to Muftis here - That was an example of how art of politics work ( U can find similar examples in BJP, Congress, AAP, NCP, DMK...etc.) Its just politics. Our sorrow is that politics of Kashmir is not nationalistic but opposite.

[Atmavik]

https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/stat ... 0815186948

Talibs have massed forces near the entrance of Panjshir a day after they got trapped in ambush zones of neighboring Andarab valley & hardly went out in one piece. Meanwhile Salang highway is closed by the forces of the Resistance. "There are terrains to be avoided". See you.

[srin]

Panjshir valley has no borders with any of the neighbours. No place to fall back to, no place to escape, no covert supply lines for weapons. Worse, it is quite close to the Baki border. What is the gameplan of these "resistance forces" ? Once they are surrounded, it's just a matter of time.

[nandakumar]

The US and NATO tried to eradicate it for 20 years and failed. They had boots on the ground and incentives to farmers to give up opium.

Poppy growing will not bring more than 500 million USD. Talibanistan will need at least 10 billion/ year to function.

David Paetreus claimed in the WSJ piece by Tunku Varadarajan that the Afghan government needs $ 20 billion annually.

[Mort Walker]

After this debacle, one of the first implications for Indian sub-continent will be that air traffic through Afghanistan will stop. It will be viewed as a conflict zone.

[chetak]

whatsapp

Some US/European commentators:

2001-2011: “India should stay out of Afghanistan.”

2011-2016: “India is irrelevant in Afghanistan.”

2016-2020: “India isn’t doing enough in Afghanistan.”

2021: “The fall of the Indian-backed government in Afghanistan…”

[nam]

Our C17's are flying to Tajikstan and then to Kabul to pick up people. If our lot are thinking, we should be sending across ATGM to the NA forces.

Panjsher is all high mountains, with narrow roads. The Pak jokers have lined up their toyotas in a single file line on the narrow roads.

I would very surprised if the NA haven't been trained with ATGM. We have tons of older Soviet/Russian ATGMs. We have seen in Syria, what it did to a professional army. The toyota cavemen stand no chance.

[kit]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58300984

US decision to withdraw lays bare a not so special relationship


And sure enough the headlines were: "Blair calls Biden imbecilic."

[YashG]

Poppy growing will not bring more than 500 million USD. Talibanistan will need at least 10 billion/ year to function.

David Paetreus claimed in the WSJ piece by Tunku Varadarajan that the Afghan government needs $ 20 billion annually.

Metamphetamine will bring in more.
Also 20bn USD Army is great but what will this army fight? who?
You can possibly buy local warlords through poppy trade.

If you say policing, I can agree.

[chetak]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58300984

US decision to withdraw lays bare a not so special relationship


And sure enough the headlines were: "Blair calls Biden imbecilic."

The amerikis are being run out of afghanistan like two bit bimbos in a cheap spaghetti western


and look at what the taliban has said

Be Ready for Consequences if Delayed. 31st Aug is Redline, Biden should remove all forces; Anything above that is extended occupation of #Afghanishtan : Talban warns NATO forces.


https://news.sky.com/story/afghanistan- ... s-12388436

[chetak]

one can only marvel at the creativity of these guys.............


With us, you fly inside the plane.

[Vadivel]

Now where did we hear this before. Pakis.


Afghan soldiers were paid a fortune by Americans to fight Taliban.
- Donald Trump

https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status ... 6989380609

[Deans]

Poppy growing will not bring more than 500 million USD. Talibanistan will need at least 10 billion/ year to function.

David Paetreus claimed in the WSJ piece by Tunku Varadarajan that the Afghan government needs $ 20 billion annually.

Afghanistan's entire GDP is under $ 20 billion.
The largest component is foreign aid.
The drug industry is worth around $ 5-6 Billion (should grow now), but only a fraction will be part of the Afghan GDP.

[nachiket]

Our C17's are flying to Tajikstan and then to Kabul to pick up people. If our lot are thinking, we should be sending across ATGM to the NA forces.

Panjsher is all high mountains, with narrow roads. The Pak jokers have lined up their toyotas in a single file line on the narrow roads.

I would very surprised if the NA haven't been trained with ATGM. We have tons of older Soviet/Russian ATGMs. We have seen in Syria, what it did to a professional army. The toyota cavemen stand no chance.

You don't need ATGM's to blow up pickup trucks in a convoy. A simple RPG will do. It is much cheaper as well and should be easy enough to find in Afghanistan. Using an ATGM against every Toyota Hilux is an unfeasible proposition. Even better is to use IED's. Use the Taliban's own tactics against them.

[Haresh]

UK Sharia Council scholar says the Taliban have 'grown up' and 'every Muslim I know' is celebrating their return

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... wn-up.html

British ex-Guantanamo prisoner Moazzam Begg says UK troops 'died in vain and for nothing' and will be remembered as 'the bad guys' and Taliban should be given 'the right to celebrate' for conquering Afghanistan

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... thing.html

[rsingh]

David Paetreus claimed in the WSJ piece by Tunku Varadarajan that the Afghan government needs $ 20 billion annually.

Afghanistan's entire GDP is under $ 20 billion.
The largest component is foreign aid.
The drug industry is worth around $ 5-6 Billion (should grow now), but only a fraction will be part of the Afghan GDP.

Seriously? I got my facts wrong. I think i got 500mil from some print media. I think it was 500 Million USD Only.

[sanjaykumar]

The Economist states that the fall of Afghanistan is a “humiliation” for India.

Being beaten and kicked by afghans is part of British culture. Ask Kipling. Not humiliating for the British at all.

Some like to pontificate even with a fresh boot print on their backsides.

[CalvinH]

Afghanistan's entire GDP is under $ 20 billion.
The largest component is foreign aid.
The drug industry is worth around $ 5-6 Billion (should grow now), but only a fraction will be part of the Afghan GDP.

Seriously? I got my facts wrong. I think i got 500mil from some print media. I think it was 500 Million USD Only.

With Taliban controlling Afghanistan the Drug trade can be easily ramped up to Central American cartel level which does multi billion dollar business annually. With Pakistan-Turkey axis as handler to route the drug to ME, India and Europe. This wont add much to the afghan GDP as the value would be extracted outside Afghanistan but it would give Taliban any needed money to sustain their fighting and controlling abilities.

I dont think Taliban need a lot of money to run Afghanistan. They are not going to build schools, Univs, hospital and dams. If west think they can choke Taliban by sanctions they are dreaming.

[Deans]

Afghanistan's entire GDP is under $ 20 billion.
The largest component is foreign aid.
The drug industry is worth around $ 5-6 Billion (should grow now), but only a fraction will be part of the Afghan GDP.

Seriously? I got my facts wrong. I think i got 500mil from some print media. I think it was 500 Million USD Only.

$500 million is probably correct too. I guess that is what Taliban will earn from the $ 5 billion industry as their cut. The farmers have to be paid, followed by the processing lab and the local warlord. Then the Taliban sell it to the exporter, who pays some of the money locally (probably a profit of $ 500 million for the Taliban) with some probably going to the Taliban guy's personal overseas account.

[chetak]

@ANI·58m
In the last 24 hours, 25 US Military C-17s, 3 C-130s, & a combination of 61 chartered, commercial & other military flights departed Kabul, Afghanistan. The total passenger count for those flights was approximately 16,000: US Major General Hank Taylor

[kit]

The Economist states that the fall of Afghanistan is a “humiliation” for India.

Being beaten and kicked by afghans is part of British culture. Ask Kipling. Not humiliating for the British at all.

Some like to pontificate even with a fresh boot print on their backsides.

Someone should quote the facts to "eco NO mist" about how much the British spend in Afghan occupation in terms of lives lost ( British ) and money spend down the drain, its easy to be an Ostrich and bury themselves in someone else's $hit and pretend everything's hunkydory. Hypocrites.

[chetak]

@ANI·4h
From Aug 22-23, 28 US military flights have evacuated about 10,400 people from Kabul. 61 coalition aircraft evacuated approx 5,900 people. Since Aug 14, US has evacuated and facilitated evacuation of approx 37,000 people & relocated about 42,000 people: White House official

[kit]

@ANI·58m
In the last 24 hours, 25 US Military C-17s, 3 C-130s, & a combination of 61 chartered, commercial & other military flights departed Kabul, Afghanistan. The total passenger count for those flights was approximately 16,000: US Major General Hank Taylor

Quite likely they ferried off future terrorists to US of A$$ . Putin said rightly he is not going to let in any "refugees" who are most likely terrorists ( no need to disguise themselves) America is in for a treat.

[kit]

[/b]

I dont think Taliban need a lot of money to run Afghanistan. They are not going to build schools, Univs, hospital and dams. If west think they can choke Taliban by sanctions they are dreaming.

I think the Pakis already have a plan for the talibunnies that is going on under the cover of refugees. Move terrorists from Kabul to the US and other places ( know why the woke media is crying hoarse over France taking over some , all on cue ?) ., use them at different points and make the western countries "pay" to "engage" with the bunnies just like what the pukis did with Amrika before.

[ldev]

Babak Taghvaee - Μπάπακ Τακβαίε - بابک تقوایی Retweeted
CameliaEntekhabifard
@CameliaFard
·
Aug 21
A source told
@indypersian
Only with the cooperation of Qatar can the Americans coordinate the arrival of those who need to be evacuated from #Kabul airport. Qataris can only coordinate with the #Taliban and arrange the safe passage to airport road #Afghanistan #ایندیپندنت_فارسی

^^this is how India was likely able to get the embassy staff out.

In the meantime there are reports that Iran is handing back to the Taliban ANA soldiers who had crossed over the border to seek asylum. Not only the soldiers but the equipment such as Humvees that they brought with them is being handed back to the Taliban. This has implications for India if there is any glimmering of a plan to arm the resistance. Because Russia and by extension therefore the STAN republics are also neutral this time around vs the last time that they actively supported the Northern Alliance.

[ldev]

https://player.fm/series/series-1504378 ... bank-chief

Podcast interview with Ajmal Ahmady, former Governor of the Central Bank of Afghanistan. About 45 minutes long but worth listening to as it answers all the questions relating to the actual figures relating to the financial situation for Afghanistan including the estimated revenue from poppy cultivation.

[nam]

You don't need ATGM's to blow up pickup trucks in a convoy. A simple RPG will do. It is much cheaper as well and should be easy enough to find in Afghanistan. Using an ATGM against every Toyota Hilux is an unfeasible proposition. Even better is to use IED's. Use the Taliban's own tactics against them.

RPG don't have the range, nor the accuracy a ATGM offers. A bloke sitting on the top of a mountain hitting a convoy will spread the fear of allah on the cavemen.

Older Soviet/Russian ATGM are quite cheap. We must been having tons of them, which are nearing expiry. One Toyota will probably bag around 4-5 cavemen, if not more. It will work well against the armor Humvee, which they have captured.

[vera_k]

Looks like China's joining Pakistan with the begging bowl out for US aid.

US cannot simply abandon Afghanistan: China

China is once again criticising the United States over Afghanistan, saying America cannot simply abandon the war-torn country. “The United States is the root cause and the biggest external factor in the Afghan issue,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Monday. “It cannot just run away like this.”

[IndraD]

https://uk.newschant.com/world/angela-m ... orld-news/
Germany evacuated many 1000s of cans of beer & wine before Afghans who helped Germans

[surinder]

one faded but still hopeful and entitled mohtarma

Sad that she cannot see the suffering of her fellow Muslims due to Taliban.

She and other Kashmiris should be thankful to Maharaja Ranjit Singh for taking Kashmir from Afghanistan otherwise the Taliban would have imposed shariah there as we speak and this Mohtarma would be rushing to the Kabul airport to escape the country.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/ge ... ok#ref=rss
A Chronicle of German Failures in Afghanistan
German diplomats only found out by chance that their American counterparts were evacuating from Kabul and they were blindsided by the Taliban's rapid advance in the capital. But internal documents show that Berlin ignored urgent warnings.
Matthias Gebauer, Konstantin von Hammerstein, Ralf Neukirch, Fidelius Schmid, Christoph Schult und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt, 20.08.2021
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas uttered a sentence early this summer that is now coming back to haunt the German government.
Responding to biting questions from the opposition about the situation in Afghanistan, Maas said on June 9: "All these questions are based on the assumption that the Taliban will hold the scepter of power in Afghanistan in a few weeks. That is not the assumption I am working from."
It was a fatal miscalculation on the part of the minister. Ultimately it would be a matter of days and not weeks before the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan.
A team of DER SPIEGEL reporters has reconstructed the omissions and mistakes that led to the dramatic events of the past few days. We spoke with government ministers, officials and diplomats and reviewed confidential minutes of meetings, emails and situation reports. The reporting shows how wrongly many of those responsible in Berlin assessed the situations – and how long they ignored the warning signs. It provides a chronicle of political failures.
Germans Realize the Americans Are Withdrawing
It was rather by accident that diplomats at the German Embassy in Kabul took notice of the dramatic changes taking place in the city. On Saturday, August 14, while driving through the Green Zone, the secured government and diplomatic quarter in Kabul, they noticed that the Americans had quietly withdrawn their protective forces - hundreds of them.
Even the otherwise heavily guarded entrances to the political center of the city were no longer manned by U.S. soldiers, and their armored cars had disappeared. The Americans had even ceased protecting the roads to the airport.
Only after hectic calls did the German Embassy learned that the U.S. had withdrawn all its forces to its own embassy facility, from which helicopters were already flying American diplomats to the military section of the airport. That was when it became clear that the U.S. had begun evacuating its embassy. Ashraf Ghani’s Presidential Palace, also located in the Green Zone, was also more or less unprotected.
At 1:34 p.m. that day, the German mission in Kabul sent an emailed warning to Berlin that the security situation had deteriorated further due to the withdrawal of U.S. forces. It stated that the German Embassy was dependent entirely on the protection provided by the outer ring of security surrounding the Green Zone. For that reason, it said, they were considering taking refuge in the military part of the airport as well.
......
Gautam

[ldev]

Interesting flight path the Air India evacuation flights take from Dushanbe to Delhi. The direct route would be much closer but will involve a detour into Chinese airspace as overflying the Wakhan corridor is not possible as Afghanistan airspace is closed to all civilian traffic.

[yensoy]

Wakhan corridor overflights are occurring regularly by United Airlines flights to/from India. Air India is considering this route as well for their US flights (and possible for these). https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 260_1.html

The airline is also carrying out a safety assessment risk for a shorter northern route via Pakistan and Tajikistan. This would cut down the increase in flight duration and reduce fuel burn.

Let's also keep in mind that different aircraft have different "ETOPS" limits, i.e. how far they can fly without alternate airports enroute, so it is possible that the A320s still follows the roundabout route even when 777s start flying over Wakhan.

[Ambar]

US begins settling the first of around 65,000 afghan refugees evacuated from Afghanistan. This number will likely increase as more and more take this opportunity to get out of Afghanistan and seek asylum. Perhaps the one thing which will always be in favor of US and Canada is their geographical location and endless supply of christian immigrants from latin american countries. Unlike an aging Europe where jihadists can easy establish a supply pipeline given the close proximity with Turkey/north Africa, US and Canada will not have to worry about armed armadas of rabid jihadis just rowing in mass . That said having seen how spectacularly the Somalian refugee settlement has backfired , i wouldn't be too surprised if something similar were to happen with Afghanis and Pakis in future.

[ldev]

This photo courtesy Yalda Hakim, BBC twitter shows the Taliban at the President's desk in the Presidential Palace in Kabul the day they took over. I wonder who the person in the jacket is, the only one not working Afghani clothes. Afghani? Pakistani? He has that subservient demeanor unlike all the others present in the photograph.

[g.sarkar]

US begins settling the first of around 65,000 afghan refugees evacuated from Afghanistan. This number will likely increase as more and more take this opportunity to get out of Afghanistan and seek asylum. Perhaps the one thing which will always be in favor of US and Canada is their geographical location and endless supply of christian immigrants from latin american countries. Unlike an aging Europe where jihadists can easy establish a supply pipeline given the close proximity with Turkey/north Africa, US and Canada will not have to worry about armed armadas of rabid jihadis just rowing in mass . That said having seen how spectacularly the Somalian refugee settlement has backfired , i wouldn't be too surprised if something similar were to happen with Afghanis and Pakis in future.

Unfortunately, there have been many cases of terrorism amongst recent immigrants in the US. The Boston bombing comes to mind right away, but there are many others that are less prominent. If there is a blanket policy to accept refugees, some bad apples will get through. One factor I see with the Peaceful People is that they become more peaceful and conservative as they age. Just my observation.
Gautam

[ricky_v]

https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/terro ... ghanistan/

Moreover, it has also delegated the security of Kabul to the Haqqani network — which has close ties to al-Qaeda and was responsible for some of the deadliest attacks of the Afghan war —further illustrating its closeness to the group.

Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent had already hailed the U.S. withdrawal as a victory, and changed the name of its magazine from Nawai Afghan Jihad (Voice of the Afghan Jihad) to Nawai Ghazwat-ul-Hind (Voice of the Conquest of India) early this year, indicating where its energies could be focused going forward.

As recently as July 2021, Indian authorities arrested two Kashmiris belonging to Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. According to the Uttar Pradesh Anti-Terrorism Squad, the two were allegedly planning to conduct attacks in Lucknow, the state capital. In addition, three Bangladeshi members of Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh were also apprehended in the same month for allegedly setting up networks in Kolkata.

Moreover, al-Qaeda has discussed the treatment of Rohingyas in Myanmar and warns of revenge in case of further atrocities. Ataullah abu Ammar Junni, the leader of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, was born in Pakistan and has travelled to both Pakistan and Afghanistan to seek help for his insurgency

The Islamic State has conducted attacks throughout South Asia. In Pakistan, the group has been active as Wilayah-al-Bakistan (or the “Islamic State Pakistan Province”) since 2019. Its rivalry with the Taliban has already shown some spill over effect with the Islamic State claiming responsibility for the killing of a Taliban leader in an attack in Peshawar, Pakistan. Wilayah-al-Bakistan claimed 22 attacks in Pakistan in 2019 and 13 attacks in 2020.

Sawt-al-Hind (Voice of Hind), an online pro-Islamic State propaganda magazine, targeted Indian Muslims during communal riots in New Delhi in February 2020. The monthly magazine explores controversial regional and local affairs (e.g., developments at the Ayodhya temple, a highly contentious issue between Hindus and Muslims in India since the early 1990s). It regularly features articles by authors from Maldives, a country that, on a per capita basis, once had the highest number of foreign fighters that joined the Islamic State in the region.

Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad are recognized as Kashmiri nationalists fighting over lost territory. Moreover, their historic links with each other and actors within Pakistan beginning in the 1990s gives each group bona fides with the Taliban, which also sees itself foremost as a nationalist movement. The Islamic State, by contrast, considers Kashmir to be a Muslim majority region and intends to establish itself as an independent entity separate from India or Pakistan.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/wo ... ead3aefcf6
A Trillion Dollar Illusion The Entirely Predictable Failure of the West's Mission in Afghanistan
In early July, I met with a leading Taliban military commander. I asked when his fighters would arrive in Kabul. His answer: "They are already there." How the Afghanistan mission failed and what happens next.
Christoph Reuter, 20.08.2021
In early July, before the great storm broke over Afghanistan, Kabul was already surrounded by the Taliban. And nowhere were the Islamist fighters closer to the Afghan capital city than on the shores of the Qargha Reservoir, a popular getaway on the western edge of the city. People were saying that the Taliban had gathered in the villages behind the nearby hills. The last frontline, it was said, was on the shore of the reservoir at the amusement park.
During the day, families were still taking their children to the rides and the restaurants or going out on the water in swan-shaped paddle boats. A small, six-member special forces unit even enjoyed a picnic in a wooden pavilion on the shore. One of them had to stand guard at the gun turret of their armored Humvee as the rest smoked hookahs and drank colorful sodas.
The next day, I met one of the Taliban’s leading military commanders for Kabul, who received me in the middle of the city in an unremarkable office building. When asked how far the Taliban had to walk to get to the lakeshore, he responded: "Not far at all." He seemed perfectly calm, a clean-shaven emissary of fear. "They’re already there, after all. They are the security guards at the restaurants, the ride operators, the cleaning staff. When the time is right, the place will be full of Taliban."
Six weeks after our meeting, in the middle of August, the same man drove to the Presidential Palace along with 10 bodyguards and the senior commander responsible for the conquering of Kabul. He hadn’t lied when he said that his men had already infiltrated the park at the reservoir. What he had failed to mention, though, was that the Taliban were also already in the heart of the city.
Numerous witnesses in various neighborhoods of the capital following the fall of Kabul had similar stories to tell. "It started in April," says a longtime acquaintance from the western part of the city. "More and more outsiders were suddenly in the neighborhood. Some had beards, others didn’t. Some were well dressed, others wore rags. Completely different. That made them difficult to notice. But all of the locals realized: They aren’t from here." They had silently infiltrated Kabul. The outsiders also appeared in the northern and eastern parts of the city, telling those who asked that they had come to Kabul for a new job or for business reasons.
Then, last Sunday morning, "they came out of the buildings holding white Taliban flags, some of them armed with pistols," says a resident of an eastern district of the city. It was the ultimate victory over America’s high-tech military, whose air surveillance proved powerless against this army of pedestrians and motorcyclists that would overrun Kabul from within and from outside in the ensuing hours. Later that day, they would drive through the city streets in captured police cars – from the air, an image of perfect confusion.
How could such a thing happen? How was it possible to lose Afghanistan to exactly the same group that was defeated – destroyed, really – in just two months back in 2001?
For 20 years, the U.S. – together with Germany, Britain, Canada and other countries – maintained a presence in the country with its dominant military superiority and, at times, with over 130,000 troops. The Afghan army and police were trained and outfitted over and over again for a period equivalent to an entire generation – only to ultimately capitulate almost without a fight to an offensive of pedestrians. The takeover happened in the morning hours of last Sunday, with the Taliban suddenly appearing in Kabul like a ghost army.
......
Gautam

[Mort Walker]

@ANI·58m
In the last 24 hours, 25 US Military C-17s, 3 C-130s, & a combination of 61 chartered, commercial & other military flights departed Kabul, Afghanistan. The total passenger count for those flights was approximately 16,000: US Major General Hank Taylor

I would be leery of trusting any numbers evacuated from Afghanistan coming from the US military or government. Wait until there is confirmed information from other sources.