BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 20 Apr 2014 23:32

B: 0 0 10 80 10 0 0
also the digits 238 and 268 [248 < 258 < 238/268]

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 21 Apr 2014 04:48

In Economics rule number 2 ( rule 1 Individuals are rational and make rational choices) is everybody optimizes his utility.

Based on this
There will be candidates who will sabotage NaMo from getting absolute majority, because then the utility of some players will dimish, such as LKA, Sushma, MM Joshi etc stalwarts. There will be also fringe players who are sure to win their seats and yet undercut other(global candidates) so that it maximizes their utility of NaMo dependence example Giriraj, Tagodia.

At times the BJP fringe supporters need to shut up, but then their utility will diminish after the polls

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 21 Apr 2014 07:34

^^ Hasn't rule no 1 been criticized over and over again. Humans beings are typically the last of the species who act rationally, that too while making 'decisions'.

There are several theories which basically surround that aspect and lots of literature which goes on to conclude even weirder things... my favorite currently is: "The last thing you should depend on is your common sense and reasoning". Comes across as a neat report and a very interesting theory.

But yes, the rational approach has its advantages and a fair share (sensible) of people do work using that model too.

Its an interesting point on utilities and how the other people and parties are maximizing their utilities though. If that were true, its also possible that they will do it up to an extent where their utility doesn't actually start diminishing? Say for eg, they will want to criticize modi but only so much, so as to keep him in check... not to an extent where he / BJP can actually lose the elections... because that will end up being a bummer for all parties involved. That will lead to devastation of utility as opposed to maximization (diminishing).

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 21 Apr 2014 09:17

Far more interesting to post only Bjp values. Adjusted my values to reflect some of the disinformation on both SM & MSM during the week of April 17.

GJP, Week 3, NDA.

<200: 35%
200-220: 30%
221-240: 25%
241-260: 10%
261-280: 0%
281-300: 0%
>300: 0%

Klaus 35 30 25 10 0 0 0

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Apr 2014 09:53

Group 1: HAR - 5, DEL - 6, UK - 5, HP - 4, UP - 56, BIH - 30, JAR - 11, RAJ - 22, GUJ - 23, MP - 26, CH - 8 : Group 1 total 196
Group 2: MH - 30, WB - 1, KA- 12, AP - 18, TN - 5, OD - 2 : Group 2 total 63
Group 3: JK - 1, NE - 5, UT - 3, GOA - 1 : Group 3 total 10

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 21 Apr 2014 10:03

0 0 0 0 10 40 50

member_28397 · Post by **member_28397** » 21 Apr 2014 15:06

Mort Walker wrote:Group 1: HAR - 5, DEL - 6, UK - 5, HP - 3, UP - 46, BIH - 25, JAR - 9, RAJ - 21, GUJ - 21, MP - 24, CH - 8 : Group 1 total 173
Group 2: MH - 28, WB - 1, KA- 14, AP - 16, TN - 3, OD - 1, PB - 6: Group 2 total 69
Group 3: JK - 1, NE - 5, UT - 3, GOA - 1 : Group 3 total 10

Edited out 252 NDA

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Apr 2014 17:45

^^^ I see around ~270, but this could translate upward depend on what happens in UP, MH & BIH. It could go be 60, 35, & 35.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 21 Apr 2014 18:07

For week 3

merlin 5 10 30 40 10 5 0

From various reports have inched the numbers up but > 300 looks increasingly impossible to me now (peaceful consolidation and lower voting percentages than expected from various places). Also it looks like the Modi wave will still leave some places untouched (Kerala for one).

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Apr 2014 19:50

Mort and Maharathi, Please include your estimates along with your discussion. Or else it becomes not germane to this thread.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Apr 2014 20:09

^^^Going back to the original 2014 election thread. Let's leave this for just estimates.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Apr 2014 20:33

Ok. ramana

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Apr 2014 22:06

Feedback from a lurker. This GJP is good project for BRF for it is summary poll of polls and news and gets re-adjusted as we progress to the end.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 21 Apr 2014 22:20

I have written a detailed post in my blog with my prediction on bare minimum and maximum bjp seats as it runs 3 pages. rlindia at blogspot.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 21 Apr 2014 22:34

Narayana Rao wrote:I have written a detailed post in my blog with my prediction on bare minimum and maximum bjp seats as it runs 3 pages. rlindia at blogspot.

Thank you. Speed read it. I agree with your 248 number, without allies.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 22 Apr 2014 02:32

Narayana Rao wrote:I have written a detailed post in my blog with my prediction on bare minimum and maximum bjp seats as it runs 3 pages. rlindia at blogspot.

Some areas where I differ with you:
UP: 56-60
MP: 25-27
GJ: 22-25
NE: 4-6

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Apr 2014 03:17

Folks remember last day for Round #3 is 4/24 i.e. right on polls close. So if you want to update based on that data you need to revise your inputs by going back.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 23 Apr 2014 08:21

Isn't this project flawed in the sense that the predictors base their predictions largely based on what they read here on BRF. And since BRF leans a quite a bit towards BJP, all the predictions have the "BJP bias". A true judgement project would be more successful if the predictors did their own independent research. No?

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 23 Apr 2014 09:19

The BJP supporter brings in not 1 but 2 bias to the table. One the enthu for BJP another is the fear of loss.

For example, everybody around me that I meet has mentioned their musharaf estimates between 220-300. The senior management was asked at our company to form their musharraf estimates. Even 1 congi friend has given 200+ and 1 AAPtard friend has given 220+, both numbers given grudgingly. None of these people read anything like the BRF. In that sense this study can be treated as a good estimate of the interested parties. And I doubt if you can get a reasonable number from non-supporters.

On the whole my guess is that this elections the only 'given' is that everybody wants NaMo as PM. Everything else is going to be a learning opportunity for everybody.

......................

I have one query of my own. I gave only one estimate and only in the NDA thread. I have not changed my opinion, since. The later collation and analysis of data, understandably, did not include my older estimates. The queries are - Are there others like me who have not responded more than once and would it make any appreciable change if the first estimate is picked as such for later collations?

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 23 Apr 2014 09:22

Santosh wrote:Isn't this project flawed in the sense that the predictors base their predictions largely based on what they read here on BRF. And since BRF leans a quite a bit towards BJP, all the predictions have the "BJP bias". A true judgement project would be more successful if the predictors did their own independent research. No?

Which is why some of us post values which tend towards the lower tally (175-190). Its about drawing an inference from between SM (BJP bias) vs MSM (Nehruvian p-sec bias & outright distortion).

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 23 Apr 2014 21:51

My third week NDA prediction:
<200: 5%
200-220: 10%
221-240: 20%
241-260: 20%
261-280: 30%
281-300: 10%
>300: 5%

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Apr 2014 23:34

Saral, Can you run the numbers without the thread being locked?

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 23 Apr 2014 23:38

My Prediction for NDA:
<200: 30%
200-220: 45%
221-240: 20%
241-260: 5%
261-280: 0%
281-300: 0%
>300: 0%

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 24 Apr 2014 05:59

same - no change

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Apr 2014 10:33

B: 0 0 5 80 15 0 0
also the digits 238 and 268 [248 < 258 < 238/268] 258-268 seems more likely

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 24 Apr 2014 13:10

Change of values for Week 3 GJP, NDA. New values follow:

klaus 10 0 30 35 0 5 20

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 24 Apr 2014 14:15

The thread doesn't need to be locked. You can post later when the cutoff for week 4 is on. I'll compile it in the evening EST.

p.s. I am tempted to downshift my NDA numbers to somewhat less than 272 but will resist and consider it for week 4. Does seems that 260+ is highly probable. And 300+ is too hard (too many things need to be aligned for that).

So we are still in Week 3 till today evening (EST).

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 24 Apr 2014 16:20

My third week NDA prediction:
<200: 0%
200-220: 10%
221-240: 15%
241-260: 15%
261-280: 25%
281-300: 25%
>300: 10%

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 24 Apr 2014 17:55

Guys, sorry if this was posted somewhere, but can someone point me to key opinion polls in India, I mean somewhat respectable ones. What is the optimistic and most pessimistic predictions for BJP-led NDA? For UPA? For AAP?

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 24 Apr 2014 19:40

Based on increased vote % across the board and hoping that new voters are cast in favour of NDA
and real sailab of humanity that engulfed varanasi when Modi went for nomination...
week 3 for NDA:
Patni : 0 0 5 25 50 17 3

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 24 Apr 2014 21:50

My third week predictor:

Mukesh Kumar
<200 5%
200-220 25%
221-240 35%
241-260 25%
261-280 10%
281-300 0%
>300 0%

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 25 Apr 2014 00:08

Not even one person from UP, Mumbai, Jharkhand, MH said that they vote for mafia. I heard on roads of Mumbai few idiots discussing voting for PAAP.

Nation seems to fully communal with stupid fellows here and there. Where are all common mafia voters? Am I selective or mafia voter needs to be classified as extinct rather than endangered

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 25 Apr 2014 00:10

Not even one person from UP, Mumbai, Jharkhand, MH said that they vote for mafia. I heard on roads of Mumbai few idiots discussing voting for PAAP.

Nation seems to fully communal with stupid fellows here and there. Where are all common mafia voters? Am I selective or mafia voter needs to be classified as extinct rather than endangered

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Apr 2014 02:04

Saral, Its 5:00 PM EST.

Please use data from posts above this one.

Thanks,

ramana

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 25 Apr 2014 03:20

SwamyG. I am taking the liberty of adjusting your BJP numbers to NDA (didnt want to ignore your numbers) by adding 30 to the BJP numbers and estimating from there on.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 25 Apr 2014 03:39

Week 3 NDA

Table 1 is sorted in order of mean estimates (ESTIMATE) from each of the 26 distributions (rows). I use the center of each range as the weighting factor for each frequency (so 230.5 for the range 221 to 240). I used 180 and 320 as weights for the end ranges.

Table 2 is sorted by CONFIDENCE inferred from each distribution and is something made up for this collation. A perfectly uniform distribution indicates zero confidence (extreme hedging). At the other extreme, a confidence of 100 is assigned to people who put everything in 1 bin (zero hedging). Calculation: Each column in a row has an entropy term -p*log(p). Sum these up for each row and take the exponential of the sum. Subtract from 7, divide by 6, and multiply by 100 to map the score to the range 0 to 100.

ESTIMATE has mean=266, median=265, and SD=27. CONFIDENCE has mean=57, median=56, and SD=23. Consistent with literature, extreme estimates tend to be more confident as well. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 266) and the CONFIDENCE score is 0.52. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 272.

Although the set of judges isn't the same, the median NDA estimate has increased to 265 (week 3) from 258 (week 2) as has the mean estimate at 266 (week 3) from 260. So the distribution has shifted up, favoring NDA, and has also become more symmetric as the mean and median are close to each other. The variation of estimates remains the same as week 2. The median confidence has gone up slightly but not by much (55 to 56).

Table 1

Code: Select all

        JINGO      NDA180 NDA210 NDA230 NDA250 NDA270 NDA290 NDA320    ESTIMATE     CONFIDENCE
       
        Vamsee        30     45     20      5      0      0      0         207            62
   MukeshKumar         5     25     35     25     10      0      0         232            46
        Marten         5     20     30     30     10      5      0         237            36
        merlin         5     10     30     40     10      5      0         241            43
        RKumar         0     10     35     35     10     10      0         245            47
        krisna         0      5     40     40      5      5      5         247            54
        devesh         0     10     20     30     40      0      0         250            57
          Kati         5     10     20     20     30     10      5         252            19
    brihaspati         0      0      5     80     15      0      0         252            86
         Klaus        10      0     30     35      0      5     20         253            47
      Supratik         5     10     10     20     30     20      5         258            19
  vijaykarthik         0      0     12     38     38     12      0         260            59
         Denis         0      0     15     15     60     10      0         264            66
    mahadevbhu         0     10     15     15     25     25     10         265            23
    MortWalker         0      0     15     20     35     30      0         266            53
         Patni         0      0      5     25     50     17      3         268            59
 panduranghari         0      0      0     30     50     15      5         270            64
        SwamyG         0     10     10     15     15     30     20         273            24
         Saral         0      0      0     10     65     25      0         274            77
    RahulMehta         0      5      5     10     35     35     10         275            42
 prasannasimha         0      0      0     30     30     30     10         275            55
         RamaY         0      0     30      0      0      0     70         293            86
      KLPDubey         0      0      0      0     10     40     50         303            74
       rajithn         0      0      0      0     10     10     80         312            85
     chaanakya         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
        Kanson         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100

Table 2

Code: Select all

         JINGO     NDA180 NDA210 NDA230 NDA250 NDA270 NDA290 NDA320    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE

          Kati         5     10     20     20     30     10      5         252            19
      Supratik         5     10     10     20     30     20      5         258            19
    mahadevbhu         0     10     15     15     25     25     10         265            23
        SwamyG         0     10     10     15     15     30     20         273            24
        Marten         5     20     30     30     10      5      0         237            36
    RahulMehta         0      5      5     10     35     35     10         275            42
        merlin         5     10     30     40     10      5      0         241            43
   MukeshKumar         5     25     35     25     10      0      0         232            46
        RKumar         0     10     35     35     10     10      0         245            47
         Klaus        10      0     30     35      0      5     20         253            47
    MortWalker         0      0     15     20     35     30      0         266            53
        krisna         0      5     40     40      5      5      5         247            54
 prasannasimha         0      0      0     30     30     30     10         275            55
        devesh         0     10     20     30     40      0      0         250            57
  vijaykarthik         0      0     12     38     38     12      0         260            59
         Patni         0      0      5     25     50     17      3         268            59
        Vamsee        30     45     20      5      0      0      0         207            62
 panduranghari         0      0      0     30     50     15      5         270            64
         Denis         0      0     15     15     60     10      0         264            66
      KLPDubey         0      0      0      0     10     40     50         303            74
         Saral         0      0      0     10     65     25      0         274            77
       rajithn         0      0      0      0     10     10     80         312            85
    brihaspati         0      0      5     80     15      0      0         252            86
         RamaY         0      0     30      0      0      0     70         293            86
     chaanakya         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
        Kanson         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 25 Apr 2014 17:32

Week 4

merlin 5 50 35 10 0 0 0

kish · Post by **kish** » 25 Apr 2014 18:21

Week 4

25 45 20 10 0 0 0

Reasoning:

1) Voter turnout in non-bjp states like kerala, Tamil nadu,Assam & other NE States were decent, whereas voting %age in states where BJP is stated to gain had low turn out(I mean the turnout doesn't reflect the heavy anti-incumbency) e.g Karnataka, Maharashtra, etc

2) Congress Dirty tricks department & News Traders managed to keep the discussion centered around "Communalism". Various scams & governance related issues are almost forgotten

The only Plus for NaMo is, he is directly reaching out to people with his numerous mega rallies. Rather than via intermediaries like "New Traders". If he is able to reach the magic figure of 272+, it is due to his own efforts. But that number seems rather difficult to get.

Eastern UP, Bihar, Gujarat, Seemandhra which goes to poll in the next couple of weeks holds the key. He may anyway need post-poll alliance with a couple of major parties to form government.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 25 Apr 2014 19:21

Week4: 0 0 0 20 0 0 80

Sources: Panic in Media, Termite Queendom, Slave-master camps and Secular Communities.

Denis · Post by **Denis** » 25 Apr 2014 19:31

Week 4: 0 0 5 25 60 10 0