Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[prashanth]

Regarding this 'Herd Immunity' experiment by UK. Initially I thought it is an outlandish idea by a mad scientist, but it seems UK’s chief scientific adviser is actually campaigning for it:
UK's 'herd immunity' approach to tackling coronavirus questioned by World Health Organisation

How do they hope to achieve this 'Herd Immunity' without exposing vulnerable section of the population such as the old and immune suppressed to the virus? Makes me wonder if this is a pension write-off scheme.

[nam]

The South Korean have gone in for restrictions and heavy testing. They are chasing every infected person. Have managed to slow down the infection in couple of months.

I feel this is the way to go. Restrict travel and go for mass testing. We need quicker and easily testing process.

[sooraj]

Throngs of travelers arriving back in the US are jam-packed in airports after Trump's coronavirus travel ban

Travelers and media outlets shared photos and videos of packed terminals at O'Hare airport in Chicago, Washington-Dulles in Virginia, and Dallas/Fort Worth airport in Texas.

Public health experts were astonished at the scenes, noting that the dense crowds presented the perfect opportunity for coronavirus transmission.

Local officials appeared furious, with Illinois' governor tweeting that "the federal government needs to get its s@#t together. NOW."

"Good God. You could hardly invent a better scenario for superspreading events," tweeted Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. "Any cases of COVID in these crowds will have a far higher chance of spreading to others in these lines than if they were just allowed in unchecked."

Another expert, biology professor Carl Bergstrom of the University of Washington, tweeted that the crowds were "a perfect storm for creating massive case clusters."

He continued: "To be clear, this is an absolute failing of policy and planning. This could have been entirely avoided. And now it will *without doubt* accelerate the epidemic of #COVID19 #coronavirus with the US."

These photos were taken tonight at O'Hare & DFW. Americans jammed together for 4 - 6 hours waiting for baggage claim and customs.

[sooraj]

Germany and US wrestle over coronavirus vaccine: report

The prominent German media outlet reported, citing unnamed sources, that US President Donald Trump was offering large sums of money to German scientists working on a vaccine. He wanted to secure exclusive rights to their work, the newspaper reported.

Trump was doing everything he could to secure a vaccine for the United States, "but only for the US," the newspaper quoted an anonymous German government source as saying.

The newspaper reported that the German government has tried to offer the company financial incentives to remain in Germany.

A German health ministry spokesman told Die Welt that the government was in "intensive" dialogue with CureVac.

"The German government is very interested in having the development of vaccines and treatments against the novel coronavirus undertaken in Germany and Europe," the spokesman said.

CureVac declined to comment to Die Welt. The company is based in the southwestern German city of Tübingen and works with the Paul Ehrlich Institute, linked with the German health ministry. It also has sites in Frankfurt and the US city of Boston.

On March 2, CureVac's then-CEO Daniel Menichella attended a meeting at the White House to discuss coronavirus vaccine development with Trump and members of his coronavirus taskforce.

On March 11, the company announced Menichella would be replaced by company founder Ingmar Hoerr, without giving a reason why.

[sooraj]

UP govt invokes Epidemic Diseases Act Sec 3 to tackle the spread of coronavirus, action against people refusing quarantine, hiding symptoms

According to the provisions of the act, any suspect who hides the symptoms of COVID-19 or refuses quarantine and medical assistance and raises obstacles to the government response to tackle the outbreak will face jail and fine under section 188 IPC.

It is pertinent to note here that the central government had already involved Epidemic Diseases Act Section 2 in its fight to control the spread of Coronavirus. Section 2 of the Act makes Health Ministry advisories enforceable. Since Health is a state subject, the state was supposed to invoke Section 3 of the act.

The Lucknow administration has ordered legal action against those suspects who do not cooperate in the prevention of coronavirus. The District Magistrate said that if any suspected patient of coronavirus or a person who comes in contact with such affected do not co-operate with the authorities, then it is considered to be obstructing the government in its fight to contain the epidemic. Under the new regulation, the accused can be imprisoned for up to six months and fined up to one thousand rupees or both.

[SwamyG]

Reading the previous two posts on the Italian context -

So the idiots there basically ignored official instructions and went about socializing in restaurants and large family groups. Then they escaped quarantine and romped around the rest of the country. Looks like the youngsters acted recklessly and got their elderly folks infected, now they're paying for it. That would be a sad way of resetting their aging profile. Maybe nature just found its own way of making them do that.

I also heard that some elderly Italians did not care much either. They continued their way of life....as they had seen all, been there, done it all types.

I was speaking to parents and brother in desh....they were lavishing praise on all the institutional level players in India. Chutiyas among the aam junta will remain chutiyas across the World...be it Italy or India. However, looks like generally the governments and administration (even down to the cop level) thnings are working admirably. Jai ho.

[SriKumar]

Reading the previous two posts on the Italian context -

So the idiots there basically ignored official instructions and went about socializing in restaurants and large family groups. Then they escaped quarantine and romped around the rest of the country. Looks like the youngsters acted recklessly and got their elderly folks infected, now they're paying for it.

THere is a lesson in here for India. Culturally Italy has similarities with India where traditionally family and friends bonds are strong, and they are relied on, much more so than the government, and so the reliance/trust on the govt is less, and as a conseuqnece, its writ is heeded less too. This one siuation is where authorities have to be heeded to, and if one does not, rest of the community pays the price.

Some random observations:
1. The graph in the previous page by 'nam' shows SoKo with more young people infected than older people. Reverse trend from rest of the world.

2. The chaos in the airport pictures above shows the need to careful planning with adequate attention to be paid to logistics before major announcements are made. I can bet there will have been tens of new infection in O'Hare with the infected people from Europe sharing their virus with fellow travellers wiating for 4 hours in tightly packed situations. Expect new clusters around Chicago and Dallas.

3. Empty shelves starting to show in local supermarkets: all paper products (paper towels, tissues, TP etc), bread, rice, pasta, canned vegerables, frozen vegetables, frozen meats and yoguts. All of these shevles are about 90% bare. But there is plenty of other kinds (or form) of food. So it seems like people are shopping for their favorite types of food before others grab it.

4. Thanks to this thread and particularly posts by Amber G. and sooraj, I did my shopping 2-3 weeks ago after I saw the numbers coming out of South Korea. This is a nation (a) with a first-world infrastructure, (b) already alarmed/alerted by the Wuhan lock-down ahead of time (And therefore govt and public was mentally prepared), (c) with a disciplined public (they have military conscription for all, so every adult therefore knows that a command from authority cannot be ignored), (d) small population and small geography- both factors favoring govt control over public movement and behavior. For this nation to have thousands of cases so quickly suggested that it could spread anywhere in the world, notwithstanding infrastructure and discipline.

5. I hope governments quickly publish medical studies on virus survivability on various surfaces, temperatures and moisture and other environmental factors. Plots/graphs seem to suggest that the virus 'likes' a particular temperature zone. This means is that temperature zone will move north or south with seasons and no portion of earth will have an anti-viral temperature range for more than 6 months in a year.

[Suresh S]

In these uncertain times I say this, India is protected because Ram Lalla is going to Ayodhaya after centuries. Corona virus or anything else nothing will happen to India. Call me what you want but I make this unscientific prediction as a scientist.

[sooraj]

Italy reports 3,590 new cases and 368 new deaths, raising total to 24,747 cases and 1,809 dead.

[Gyan]

Looking at number of deaths in Italy, I feel that China & Iran are lying about their situation

[nam]

Here is a lesson for everyone, how one idiot, the 31's infected person, refusing to isolate, caused 80% of the infection after that.

https://twitter.com/RomitB_MD/status/12 ... 0377851904

[saip]

Coronavirus: India Confirms First Death as Horror of Virus Mismanagement emerges.

This from the UK rag Independent. This when UK has more cases and deaths and reports say UK has totally mismanaged and still mismanaging it. Do they think they still rule India and so lecture it? Idiots.

[Manish_Sharma]

TWITTER

Bno Newsroom writes:
The number of coronavirus cases worldwide has surpassed 150,000. Of those, 5,774 have died, 73,962 have recovered, and 72,698 are still sick
__________________________

Sankrant Sanu writes:
Just for perspective, the common flu kills nearly 300-600,000 people every year worldwide. Also spreads by contact.

That's 25,000-50,000 a month. What am I missing here about the #CoronaVirus?
_________________________

Maria Wirth writes:

A German doctor who has researched into vaccines says the hype is a fraud. We all have viruses, it depends on our immune system. Most who died were old or had health issues, same with yearly viral flu.
He also says vaccines are about business

https://twitter.com/sankrant/status/123 ... 21184?s=19

[schinnas]

Here is a lesson for everyone, how one idiot, the 31's infected person, refusing to isolate, caused 80% of the infection after that.

https://twitter.com/RomitB_MD/status/12 ... 0377851904

Brilliant simulation on how social distancing can help to flatten the curve.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... simulator/

[Gyan]

In a casual meeting, some people in the know told me that Govt of India is working all out, behind the scenes to Gear up. They are taking it very seriously & working very hard, without trying to create panic. Announcements & action plan will be issued in phases to allow for smooth build up.

[nam]

__________________________

Sankrant Sanu writes:
Just for perspective, the common flu kills nearly 300-600,000 people every year worldwide. Also spreads by contact.

That's 25,000-50,000 a month. What am I missing here about the #CoronaVirus?
_________________________

This constant comparison with common flu. Common flu is not as contiguous as Covid-19 & does not cause respiratory failures. Most of the humanity has immunity against flu. This means, if it spreads to another person, he /she may or may not develop flu. AND common flu spreads AFTER the symptoms develop. In Covid-19, it spreads without symptoms and it WILL spread to the next person.

it is the about overwhelming the health system. Even healthy people if they pass 7 days, will need hospitalization, becoz of fear of respiratory failure. This cause secondary death in people.

Everyone needs to see the Italy situation. They are making choices on letting over 80s die, because they cannot cope with the sudden surge.

[sudarshan]

Manish ji, appreciate the other perspective. Every day, I deliberately seek out news and articles from the web, which say that this disease is not such a big deal. I believe everybody should do the same, listen to both sides of the story, and not just dismiss one side out of bias. I also agree, this disease is not the killer it is made out to be, it is perfectly possible to let it run its course, the overwhelming majority will come out just fine (and will also build up their immunity as a consequence), and I also believe that the death toll will be a lot less than "regular" flu.

I can't reconcile this with my notion of ethics, though. This is after all a new disease, if we knew more about it, maybe it would be acceptable to let it carry on. But we know very little about it. And it is also our duty to try and mitigate suffering in fellow humans. On top of that - the main reason why I'm concerned right now, is the chance of overwhelming the health-care system. I don't know if it is worth it.

This constant comparison with common flu. Common flu is not as contiguous as Covid-19 & does not cause respiratory failures.

With all due respect, yes, flu causes pneumonia and respiratory failures, I believe the majority of flu deaths are because of that.

Most of the humanity has immunity against flu. And we know flu will stop in 5 days.

I believe at least 80% of humanity (current numbers suggest >90%) are also "immune" to COVID-19, in the sense that they recover from it, also within a few days.

it is the about overwhelming the health system. Even healthy people if they pass 7 days, will need hospitalization, becoz of fear of respiratory failure. This cause secondary death in people.

Everyone needs to see the Italy situation. They are making choices on letting over 80s die, because they cannot cope with the sudden surge.

This I agree with, but there is no reason to shut down the opposing perspective because of that, it would be good to keep both sides of the argument in mind, I feel.

[CRamS]

Guys, just landed in DFW from Bengaluru via Dubai. Just want to share my experience.


1. In a not shell, its was much ado about nothing, or so it seems to me.

2. I stocked myself with hand sanitizers, soap etc.

3. I did not see any panic, nada zilch among the passengers either from Bengaluru to Dubai or from Dubai to DFW. Only a small %ge were wearing masks, and hardly anybody I saw were cleaning their seats, tray tables etc. And everyone including myself had to take off masks after sometime. Impossible to wear it all the time as its very uncomfortable: The inhaling is fine, but when you exhale, the hot air gets trapped within the mask and leaves slowly.

4. The flight attendants didn't seem to care one bit. Forget panic, there were no warnings, they were just going about business as usual. I dodn't see any undue precaution.

5. The so called 'screening' in Dubai was a joke. Basically, they made everyone go through some kind of an IR scanner. Not sure how the sole guy watching the picture can make out anything given the number of people entering the scanner.

6. In DFW, there was ZERO screening. There was just one guy asking if I visited a certain set of countries like China, Italy, Europe etc. Otherwise there was nothing.

7. As for me personally, I did follow the protocols, washing hands, using sanitizer, cleaning my seat and tray table on the flight etc. Except for a bit of a stuffy nose that I always have due to severe nasal allergies I am afflicted with, I feel fine as of now.

All in all, it does not feel as if the world is afflicted with a pandemic, except on the media.

[Cain Marko]

Islam does not approve: Four Muslims who returned from Dubai threaten health officials in Karnataka, refuse to undergo Coronavirus test

Not surpirsed. What's surprising is that if these are the only 4 cases of people refusing a test due to their religion, it is a very low number actually.

QUEstion would be how were the Friday prayers in India, were they fully attended? In some parts of the world, they were cancelled.

I would suggest these 4 WUhan Virus infected people show up to their local mullah's masjid, delcare their +ve status and see if they can do their prayers. It iis a problem if national security-crtical public health matters need religious sanction from local religious or political leadership, while disobeying instructions from civil authorities.

sooraj: I find your posts (even short posts) very informational.

These same jokers would have happily acquiesced to any amount of probing and testing were they faced with Dubai authorities. I noticed this about ummatis in the UAE, at least the cabbies - very quick to appreciate the iron boot of authority. Problem in democratic setups is that the boot is not ironclad. Either that or it is not of green color. Or maybe both.

[nam]

It is not about shutting down opposing perspective. If things were "simple", the entire world would not sacrifice their economic well-being at such a rate.

Even a country like China, which does not care about human life and is all about economic growth, decided to sacrifice all it had to stop this virsus.

[devaraya]

Reading the previous two posts on the Italian context -

5. I hope governments quickly publish medical studies on virus survivability on various surfaces, temperatures and moisture and other environmental factors. Plots/graphs seem to suggest that the virus 'likes' a particular temperature zone. This means is that temperature zone will move north or south with seasons and no portion of earth will have an anti-viral temperature range for more than 6 months in a year.

SriKumar Ji

On "virus survivability on various surfaces", i thought it may been posted earlier on this thread..
    Tests show new virus lives on some surfaces for up to 3 days.The new coronavirus can live in the air for several hours and on some surfaces for as long as two to three days, tests by U.S. government and other scientists have found. Their work, published Wednesday, suggests people can get infected through the air as well as from touching things that were contaminated by others who have it, in addition to direct person-to-person contact.
    Since emerging in China late last year, the new virus has infected more than 120,000 people worldwide and caused more than 4,300 deaths -- far more than the 2003 SARS outbreak caused by a genetically similar virus.

    For this study, researchers used a nebulizer device to put samples of the new virus into the air, imitating what might happen if an infected person coughed or made the virus airborne some other way.

    They found that viable virus could be detected up to three hours later in the air, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.

    Similar results were obtained from tests they did on the virus that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak, so differences in durability of the viruses do not account for how much more widely the new one has spread, researchers say.

    The tests were done by scientists from the National Institutes of Health, Princeton University and the University of California, Los Angeles, with funding from the U.S. government and the National Science Foundation.

    The findings have not been reviewed by other scientists yet and were posted on a site where researchers can quickly share their work before publication.

    “It’s a solid piece of work that answers questions people have been asking,” and shows the value and importance of the hygiene advice that public health officials have been stressing, said Julie Fischer, a microbiology professor at Georgetown University.

Note: For folks that detailed oriented , see the attached published paper (Note : it's  not peer reviewed with wider community)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20033217v2

[Cain Marko]

In these uncertain times I say this, India is protected because Ram Lalla is going to Ayodhaya after centuries. Corona virus or anything else nothing will happen to India. Call me what you want but I make this unscientific prediction as a scientist.

I appreciate the sentiment but have to wonder....All this time many Hindus in India have been actively preventing RamLalla from going back. They've even been buying pictures from the likes of mf Hussein that utterly desecrate Sitamai with great relish. Now why should He come to save their asses? Hainji?

But you maybe right, He is most forgiving and patient afterall.

[Cain Marko]

__________________________

Sankrant Sanu writes:
Just for perspective, the common flu kills nearly 300-600,000 people every year worldwide. Also spreads by contact.

That's 25,000-50,000 a month. What am I missing here about the #CoronaVirus?
_________________________

This constant comparison with common flu. Common flu is not as contiguous as Covid-19 & does not cause respiratory failures. Most of the humanity has immunity against flu. This means, if it spreads to another person, he /she may or may not develop flu. AND common flu spreads AFTER the symptoms develop. In Covid-19, it spreads without symptoms and it WILL spread to the next person.

it is the about overwhelming the health system. Even healthy people if they pass 7 days, will need hospitalization, becoz of fear of respiratory failure. This cause secondary death in people.

Everyone needs to see the Italy situation. They are making choices on letting over 80s die, because they cannot cope with the sudden surge.

+1

But most importantly the difference lied in the fatality rate. COVID is at least 1000x more likely to kill someone than the common flu.

[sanjaykumar]

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Despi ... ael-620938

India will continue to supply vital pharmaceutical ingredients to Israel despite government restrictions curbing drug exports, following a request by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi.
Health Ministry deputy director-general Prof. Itamar Grotto told Channel 13 on Friday that India has agreed to make an exception and permit exports to Israel, but could not confirm whether a similar request regarding the export of thousands of N95 face masks has been approved

[sanjaykumar]

This constant comparison with common flu. Common flu is not as contiguous as Covid-19 & does not cause respiratory failures. Most of the humanity has immunity against flu. This means, if it spreads to another person, he /she may or may not develop flu. AND common flu spreads AFTER the symptoms develop. In Covid-19, it spreads without symptoms and it WILL spread to the next person.

it is the about overwhelming the health system. Even healthy people if they pass 7 days, will need hospitalization, becoz of fear of respiratory failure. This cause secondary death in people.

Everyone needs to see the Italy situation. They are making choices on letting over 80s die, because they cannot cope with the sudden surge.

+1

But most importantly the difference lied in the fatality rate. COVID is at least 1000x more likely to kill someone than the common flu.

Influenza deaths are usually due to respiratory failure.

Most of humanity does not have immunity against the flu. Hence the need to predict which strains and subtypes will be prevalent and generate vaccines afresh for every season.

Healthy people do not generally require hospitalisation after 7 days or at all.

One of the main reasons over 80s are not being admitted to ICU in such cases is that it is often futile treatment, patients developing secondary morbidities- and succumbing quickly.

We do not know the case fatality rate as we don't really know the 'cases'. For reasons elaborated many times previously.

Please do not use any information on this board, including from me, as a substitute for medical advice from your local health authorities.

[sanjaykumar]

It is not about shutting down opposing perspective. If things were "simple", the entire world would not sacrifice their economic well-being at such a rate.

Even a country like China, which does not care about human life and is all about economic growth, decided to sacrifice all it had to stop this virsus.

Or perhaps Xi had no choice. He needed to put on a show-to retain his legitimacy. Whether lock-downs are the best course in epidemics is highly debatable.

[Cain Marko]

[
We do not know the case fatality rate as we don't really know the 'cases'. For reasons elaborated many times previously..

Can we say known case fatality rate then? Kcfr? Btw do we really know the number of cases of flu? Or Spanish flu? I suppose many could've had these conditions without having been tested...

[Jay]

This I agree with, but there is no reason to shut down the opposing perspective because of that, it would be good to keep both sides of the argument in mind, I feel.

Dude, stop the nonsense in believing conspiracy news in the name of both sides. You don;t subscribe to the nation of flat earth do you? People like you will do more harm then the virus itself. If you are not that worried, by all means go ahead and volunteer for a job in one of these medical wards, at least you can show the worthless believers how wrong they are and will do some good.

[sudarshan]

Guys, just landed in DFW from Bengaluru via Dubai. Just want to share my experience.
...
All in all, it does not feel as if the world is afflicted with a pandemic, except on the media.

Thx, did you experience a scene like those baggage claim crowd pictures above?

[sajo]

Section 144 may be imposed in Pune.

https://www.news18.com/news/india/coron ... 37583.html

Here I am lying awake wondering if I should head to work tomorrow or stay at home. With a toddler, don't want to risk it at all. Heck, I gave my usual barber visit a miss because
1) No idea who would have occupied that chair before me.
2) Close proximity to another person.
3) I am dhoti shibbering at the uncertainty of it all.

[Mort Walker]

Modi gave a live teleconference to SAARC members yesterday (Sunday) about the Corona virus. All the members were thankful except Pak which the sh!theads once again did Kashmir, Kashmir. I think it's time to kick Pak out of SAARC. They are a waste of human protoplasm.

[SriKumar]

On "virus survivability on various surfaces", i thought it may been posted earlier on this thread..

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20033217v2

Yes, I had quickly scanned this paper and noted its findings, particularly that it stays for 12 hours + on steel and Polypropylene. However, this is only one study, and the surfaces are limited. They should cover more surface types (PVC for example, or the kind of plastic that is used to mail out online orders, Amazon or Fedexed-related stuff- note the question asked by poster rrao ). Sometimes multiple studies are needed to confirm the first study.

[mappunni]

Guys, just landed in DFW from Bengaluru via Dubai. Just want to share my experience.
...
All in all, it does not feel as if the world is afflicted with a pandemic, except on the media.

Thx, did you experience a scene like those baggage claim crowd pictures above?

We just had the 5th case reported in North Dallas in the city of Frisco. The schools have extended spring break for another week. The latest we hear is that the children will be taught through online classes. Most offices have asked folks to work from home indefinitely.

https://www.collincountytx.gov/healthca ... /news.aspx

[sanjaykumar]

[
We do not know the case fatality rate as we don't really know the 'cases'. For reasons elaborated many times previously..

Can we say known case fatality rate then? Kcfr? Btw do we really know the number of cases of flu? Or Spanish flu? I suppose many could've had these conditions without having been tested...

'Case' is actually difficult to define.It is not binary. Ranges from near asymptomatic patients with sniffles to a dude in ICU with a tube in every orifice getting vasopressors or ECMO.

The serological tests will be more useful for measures of exposure. Of course the RNA clears rapidly in those who recover making PCR based tests of limited use for epidemiological surveys. The antibodies however may persist for years. So if we sample a population randomly and find that 20%of the population has been exposed, a few hundred deaths are put in a very different perspective.

[Cain Marko]

Guys, just landed in DFW from Bengaluru via Dubai. Just want to share my experience.
...
All in all, it does not feel as if the world is afflicted with a pandemic, except on the media.

Thx, did you experience a scene like those baggage claim crowd pictures above?

Welcome back CRSji. Glad to know that the journey was uneventful and health is in good shape.

[Guddu]

Some insights from Taleb

The paper is here https://www.academia.edu/42223846/Ethic ... temic_Risk

[hanumadu]

I am more and more inclined to think a lot of people have to be infected by the virus to develop herd immunity, but the best way to do it is prolong it by as much as possible or flatten the curve till sufficient herd immunity builds up or a vaccine is developed. Perhaps the first case as vaccine will take at least one year to develop and we cannot shut down everything for one year or perhaps we can. Fauci says he is aiming for 9 weeks to control this epidemic. I don't see how we can stop the infections completely by social distancing. Social distancing is aimed at only flattening the curve.

[SwamyG]

If social distancing delays the infection rate, then it means fewer people are infected; and that it means the health services will not be overwhelmed.

[nithish]

[sudarshan]

+1

But most importantly the difference lied in the fatality rate. COVID is at least 1000x more likely to kill someone than the common flu.

Was that rhetorical, typo, or what? The common flu accepted fatality rate is 0.1% (statistically calculated).

1000 X 0.1% = 100%.

So COVID has a fatality rate of at least 100%, often more?

EDIT: Or maybe you were talking of the overall fatality likelihood, factoring in a higher likelihood of infection than the flu as well. I still doubt it would be 1000X though.