Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 May 2013 14:40

Low voter turn-out and middle class staying away is bad news for BJP.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 May 2013 15:53

Just came back from my local booth. Lots of middle and upper class people were voting due to drives by the apartment societies....local people had brought all their voters upto grandparent level.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 16:49

If percentage remains less that 65%, it tell the Twitter crowds of Bangalore are nothing but just Twits.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 May 2013 16:57

It was 57% by 3PM so might cross 65% this time. However , you would be right about teetar crowd who throng internet cloud. Expressive and useless as ever.

Nick Grant mentioned about influence of Mobile/sms etc on Singapore Democratic process and stated that India is yet to reach there.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 05 May 2013 17:05

the problem is, people who are on twitter are not always registered voters. IT guys, for example, change jobs like they change shirts, at times relocate to new city and do not register change of address and the voter's list in the constituency.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 May 2013 17:22

There is online registration process. Strange that IT folks dont use this facility. Fill up form 6 otherwise and send it to Chief Electoral Officer of your state if being online is too much and dont know where to file paper application.

http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/index.aspx

Online Link is here.

http://eci-citizenservices.nic.in/frmForm6New.aspx

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 May 2013 17:32

News is that highest voting is from Bagaluru city.

As of 5Pm is was 61% statewide.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 05 May 2013 17:38

https://twitter.com/agenthunt/status/331021846449364993

Follow

Vijay Dwivedi
‏@agenthunt
Taxi driver with who i ws touring past 3 days,says he ll vote 4 congress in Karnataka and ll earn upto Rs10000 for voting Congress #VoteBJP

how do you copy/paste tweets as a pic? you screenshot them??

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 05 May 2013 18:00

My cook told me today that Congress is offering Rs.2000 per vote. He doesn't have a Karnataka voter ID & said Con-goons approached him to help him get one on condition that he votes for Con.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 18:17

Exit polls put INC at 110+ and BJP at 55+

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 05 May 2013 18:46

BJP is finished in Karnataka. Lost the battle but we wont lose the war.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 05 May 2013 18:56

Muppalla wrote:Exit polls put INC at 110+ and BJP at 55+

Exit polls have started accounting for EVM rigging then. Either that or they are as inaccurate as ever!

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 05 May 2013 19:06

Klaus wrote:
Exit polls have started accounting for EVM rigging then. Either that or they are as inaccurate as ever!

Perhaps! The CONgi rank and file are pretty low on morale. With all that is happening with the UPA, i am sure they are a discouraged lot. So what better way to boost their morale than to engineer a victory in KA? Morning of 9 th you will have CONgi cadres across the country waking up to believe that they will also win the General Elections. They will be a fired up lot for campaigning.
So win KA, wait until monsoon session is over, dissolve parliament and call for early elections.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 05 May 2013 19:09

rajithn wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Exit polls have started accounting for EVM rigging then. Either that or they are as inaccurate as ever!
Perhaps! The CONgi rank and file are pretty low on morale. With all that is happening with the UPA, i am sure they are a discouraged lot. So what better way to boost their morale than to engineer a victory in KA? Morning of 9 th you will have CONgi cadres across the country waking up to believe that they will also win the General Elections. They will be a fired up lot for campaigning.
So win KA, wait until monsoon session is over, dissolve parliament and call for early elections.

Makes sense.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 05 May 2013 19:12

I am not that pessimistic. Yes Congress will be the biggest party, but it needs a junior partner to form a govt. If no party is willing for a coalition govt, then it will be a proxy Congress govt run by governor.

The EVM magic that swing votes towards Congress is anywhere between 1-3% of polled votes.

My estimate of seats: Congress-110-80, BJP 80-50.

Ultimate verdict: Its a hung assembly.

At best KJP retains its modesty by getting elected its top leader, thats it, but it has made a severe damage to BJP.
________________________________________________________________________________________________

If MMS does not do something, expect Congress going general elections in 2013 under the PMship of Maratha Dalit leader Shinde.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 May 2013 19:20

Saw the vote percentage. The BJP is loosing primarily because of split in vote to KJP. The INC-JDS gain is only 2-3%.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 05 May 2013 19:25

It there any exit poll by a BJP friendly agency or by a reputed neutral agency? Exit polls can be manipulated to assist in EVM magic. The goal would be to condition the population, so outrage is minimized.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 19:28

Why do you guys think that INC is not capable of winning 110+. Without any EVM magic the INC is capable of winning 110+ seats. Why such a rust in minds folks?

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 05 May 2013 19:32

Supratik wrote:Saw the vote percentage. The BJP is loosing primarily because of split in vote to KJP. The INC-JDS gain is only 2-3%.

Yes, atleast that's what Timesnow exit poll was showing.If true, only silver lining will be the further weakening of "Loh Purush". I hope he will be given complete rest after May 8 to enjoy his moksha.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 05 May 2013 19:33

Muppalla wrote:Why do you guys think that INC is not capable of winning 110+. Without any EVM magic the INC is capable of winning 110+ seats. Why such a rust in minds folks?

Final voting percentage is 66.1. What's your gut feel now?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 19:35

kmkraoind wrote: My estimate of seats: Congress-110-80, BJP 80-50.

Ultimate verdict: Its a hung assembly.

At best KJP retains its modesty by getting elected its top leader, thats it, but it has made a severe damage to BJP.

I would not consider anything above 100 as not hung assembly. If a minnows like BJP can do operation-Lotus, INC can easily do 10 times of it. So 110 for congress == 135

See 2008 voting percentages. Even then congress got more percentage than BJP. It was just Yeddi's Charisma combined with AP-style politics from Reddy brothers that BJP could win.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 05 May 2013 19:39

Muppalla wrote:Why do you guys think that INC is not capable of winning 110+. Without any EVM magic the INC is capable of winning 110+ seats. Why such a rust in minds folks?

Maybe, but it would be good to have independent exit polls.

It would be interesting to have a detailed poll of Congress voters - are they voting for Congress because they think it will give good governance, or for caste, or out of dissatisfaction with the BJP?

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 05 May 2013 19:39

Sorry reality on the ground.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 May 2013 19:40

It is basically hit-wicket for both Yeddi and BJP. A solution needs to be found before 2014.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 05 May 2013 19:40

We all had a feeling that BJP would fall in Karnataka. Advani, low morale, Yeddy, no vision, etc. Recipe for disaster if you ask me. Like Rajithn said, elections are just around the corner. They will win and then declare early national election before the string of assembly elections which BJP is expected to sweep.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 05 May 2013 19:42

RoyG wrote:We all had a feeling that BJP would fall in Karnataka. Advani, low morale, Yeddy, no vision, etc. Recipe for disaster if you ask me. Like Rajithn said, elections are just around the corner. They will win and then declare early national election before the string of assembly elections which BJP is expected to sweep.

It could be simultaneous state and national elections.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 05 May 2013 19:42

atleast the guy has decency to take up residence in blr, for the privilege of being a given a RS seat from there.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 05 May 2013 19:44

Supratik wrote:It is basically hit-wicket for both Yeddi and BJP. A solution needs to be found before 2014.

Of 11% swing away from BJP, Yeddy takes 9% and 1% to Congress, 1% others and some one is happy enjoying Moksha keeping high moral ground.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 19:51

Sushupti wrote:
Muppalla wrote:Why do you guys think that INC is not capable of winning 110+. Without any EVM magic the INC is capable of winning 110+ seats. Why such a rust in minds folks?
Final voting percentage is 66.1. What's your gut feel now?

Congress will form the government with comfortable majority. All the bs about their problems with CM candidate etc are easily solvable. They will be there for next five years. Even if they come just 95, they are sure to form a comfortable government.

BJP's supporters and also its leaders has to keep the following in mind.

(1) Hindutva voting is a myth
(2) Party with a difference bs, anti-corruption bs and let us bring back black money bs will never work and never ever worked electorally.
(3) Governance, respect to caste groups is a must. If you don't take these into consideration, the minimum that voters will do is punish. See how TN votes to DMK and ADMK. No one is permanent enemy but will be punished severely by the electorate.

I am only hoping that Yeddi is made BJP chief with full independence to rebuild the party. BJP has no option other than working a way to get back Yeddi even if he is bad/fool/whatever. I hope better sense prevails in Modi's team to get back by LS. I still hope that BJP at least reaches 60 seats.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 05 May 2013 20:05

Different vantage point i.e. local news channel . This guy gives more seats to JDS and KJP while MSM is giving all the seats away from BJP to Cong.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 05 May 2013 20:13

siddharamiah would be a very good choice. his work in varuna is legendary and people swear by him there. he is a lawyer by trade and has been a fairly decent guy. the problem is he is not a congressi at heart or by instinct and is not likely to be too enamoured with sonia. he lost interest in jds because of the elder gowda pushing his kids.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 05 May 2013 20:20

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 20:22

Pranav wrote:
Muppalla wrote:Why do you guys think that INC is not capable of winning 110+. Without any EVM magic the INC is capable of winning 110+ seats. Why such a rust in minds folks?
Maybe, but it would be good to have independent exit polls.

It would be interesting to have a detailed poll of Congress voters - are they voting for Congress because they think it will give good governance, or for caste, or out of dissatisfaction with the BJP?

Pranav wrote:
RoyG wrote:We all had a feeling that BJP would fall in Karnataka. Advani, low morale, Yeddy, no vision, etc. Recipe for disaster if you ask me. Like Rajithn said, elections are just around the corner. They will win and then declare early national election before the string of assembly elections which BJP is expected to sweep.
It could be simultaneous state and national elections.

This is the problem of knee jerk reactions and cooking some solution or some analysis based on some western way of electoral thinking. All this is because of internet coming in big way and also due to a lot of exposure to west due to mobility of a lot of educated Indians.

The fundamentals of Indian elections did not change much. Congress party has mastered few castes/groups and poor people via bribing voters and entitlement and positions. INC is going down but it did not lose grip over the classes it represented. More educated and developed castes/groups drifted away from it but even in the drift it ensured that the voters who doesn't vote split in multiple directions. The congress voters never think but they just vote. Trying to analyze them is waste of time. The only way you can get if they supply few 1000 rupees and give a woman a night to their group leaders then beat them by giving more. (Ugly to say so but that is the ground)

There is a need for some one to play the same game but do a game-changer if and when comes to power. The first ever game changer in Indian politics was V.P.Singh who blunted the caste portions of INC. Need another who can bring an important reform such as run off election to beat out divisions of anti-congress voters.

Until then we keep cooking reasons. KHAM (its variants) is a very good lethal mechanism to win elections. When in power INC does everything (only thing) to get back to KHAM types stuff.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 May 2013 20:23

If Yeddiyurappa was guilty and involved in corruption, it was right thing to pull him out. He could have returned if the justice system cleared him. He clearly put his interest over the welfare of people, by trying to split BJP votes. Such people should not be allowed to return, let alone be made Chief. If BJP cannot be a party of difference, then why vote for BJP? It makes more sense to vote for the party that pays and offers goodies. Voting for INC is better in that case, if BJP is really no different than INC.

Lessons learned for BJP. Promote clean individuals up the ranks, who have charisma and will work with the types of Modi for the welfare of people. Anyway I would be surprised if BJP ever learns lessons.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 May 2013 20:28

SwamyG, the charge against Yeddi is more of nepotism i.e. helping his family make money, than outright stealing.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 20:31

shaardula wrote:siddharamiah would be a very good choice. his work in varuna is legendary and people swear by him there. he is a lawyer by trade and has been a fairly decent guy. the problem is he is not a congressi at heart or by instinct and is not likely to be too enamoured with sonia. he lost interest in jds because of the elder gowda pushing his kids.

I think they will go with this guy. People may think AP and Karnataka as some different on this forum but the ground is exactly same and things for congress are very inter related. A new K in KHAM is being really cooked by Congress in this region. Chiranjeevi, Siddaramiah belongs to this new K.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 05 May 2013 20:41

he is from the kuruba caste. career politician. pushing 70s. his development agenda will be more toilets than tradecenters. religious guy, but a common sensical guy and has had many well fought battles with sundry swamys and self proclaimed gurus.

isnt chiranjeevi kaapu, a land owning caste?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 20:43

shaardula wrote:he is from the kuruba caste. career politician. pushing 70s. his development agenda will be more toilets than tradecenters. religious guy, but a common sensical guy and has had many well fought battles with sundry swamys and self proclaimed gurus.

isnt chiranjeevi kaapu, a land owning caste?

Chiranjeevi is kapu. Kapu, Reddy, Kamma and velama are all land owning and warrior castes. Now all of them are banias

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 05 May 2013 20:52

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 May 2013 20:53

Can Congoon give credit to Rahul for Karnataka victory? Probably yes. Will opposition now stop lanpooning him now that he has given a clear cut victory in two states?? Probably no.

Will this set the stage for Rahul being anointed now or in next General Election for PM candidate?