Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 05 May 2013 21:08

69 pc polling in Karnataka

The Chief Electoral Officer Anil Jha informed the media in Bangalore that the polling percentage in Bangalore alone was at 52 percent

http://vickynanjapa.wordpress.com/2013/ ... karnataka/

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 May 2013 21:09

Muppalla wrote:
shaardula wrote:he is from the kuruba caste. career politician. pushing 70s. his development agenda will be more toilets than tradecenters. religious guy, but a common sensical guy and has had many well fought battles with sundry swamys and self proclaimed gurus.

isnt chiranjeevi kaapu, a land owning caste?
Chiranjeevi is kapu. Kapu, Reddy, Kamma and velama are all land owning and warrior castes. Now all of them are banias

I thought caste was a deriding factor for Bimaru states in North India as South was more of liberated from this curse.
That too Karnataka, Land of IT revolution, man I feel so disappointed.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 05 May 2013 21:20

Muppalla wrote: This is the problem of knee jerk reactions and cooking some solution or some analysis based on some western way of electoral thinking. All this is because of internet coming in big way and also due to a lot of exposure to west due to mobility of a lot of educated Indians.

Hold your horses a little ... if you read what you quoted, it was a question, not a solution or a reaction. You can add your own options to the menu.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 05 May 2013 21:29

Very true.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 21:31

chaanakya wrote: I thought caste was a deriding factor for Bimaru states in North India as South was more of liberated from this curse.
That too Karnataka, Land of IT revolution, man I feel so disappointed.

Caste is not a factor in JK, NE, WB and kerala. Everywhere else it is definitely a factor in elections. In AP/KA it is a way of business networking and everything is about who gets more control over economic resources. Everything else is posturing and drama.

For BJP this is another Kalyan Singh moment. I will bet that Yeddi's party will be single reason for BJP's loss even if he just gets 5 seats. I still hope that BJP gets 60 to 70 seats.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 May 2013 21:40

Even if congress did good, I would like to see it at 95 and BJP at 65. It will be a lot of fun to watch in such a circumstances. It also puts BJP to do the necessary corrections for LS. If congress goes beyond 120 then it is a tough call afterwards.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 05 May 2013 21:54

If the polling is 69% (compared to 49% last) and swing against bjp is 11%,how does it All add up? Should I believe that 20% Increase in voter turnout went to kangress?(if I assume all the 11% from bjp went to kjp). I can't understand the logic..

It is difficult for me to comprehend that the 20% rise in polling is due to pappu and not NaMo!

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 05 May 2013 21:58

The BJP need to at least get more seats than the JDS, else I think their goose will be cooked in the LS elections.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 May 2013 22:05

chaanakya wrote: I thought caste was a deriding factor for Bimaru states in North India as South was more of liberated from this curse.
That too Karnataka, Land of IT revolution, man I feel so disappointed.

Caste is a big factor in India. Religion never was. Look at what PMK is doing in the northern parts of TN. When Karunanidhi dies, it is going to give raise to more chaos in terms of caste and rise of Islamism. In the deep TN people fight over caste and religion. A long way to go Saar.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 05 May 2013 22:06

James B · Post by **James B** » 05 May 2013 22:12

I think people should give up the 'EVM magic' nonsense. If EVM was so magical why does BJP wins where it wins.

manish · Post by **manish** » 05 May 2013 23:28

Shonu wrote:I still believe BJP will win this election in spite of the exit polls claiming kangress victory. However, if I'm wrong - and I hope Im not - then I hope congress r@pe karnataka .. strip it bare and make sure everyone suffers badly. I will root for them to loot everything from my fellow kannadigas. This is what they deserve, let them suffer.

Calm down. Please.
What you posted isn't acceptable IMVVHO. Please edit it before someone formally reports it.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 05 May 2013 23:41

Exit Poll: Constituency-wise Results of Karnataka Elections

http://indiawires.com/21915/news/nation ... elections/

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 05 May 2013 23:53

manish wrote:Calm down. Please.
What you posted isn't acceptable IMVVHO. Please edit it before someone formally reports it.

Sir, I've edited the post. Apologies to anyone who was offended. Anyhow.. although the language may not be palatable, it is what karnataka deserve (I am a kannadiga) if the exit polls are true - so its not just these people that will be affected. according to the exit polls (which i still believe is wrong), what this tells BJP is that if you find someone who is corrupt in your party, then you dont boot him, keep him. If you boot him, people will boot you. Ironic !

Anyway, the reason I feel the exit polls are wrong is that - some of the people who claimed to have voted for congress would have actually voted for someone else. They would have said so perhaps because they were paid and can't admit that they didnt vote congress. This is perhaps why indian exit polls are so off most of the time.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 05 May 2013 23:54

chaanakya wrote:Can Congoon give credit to Rahul for Karnataka victory? Probably yes. Will opposition now stop lanpooning him now that he has given a clear cut victory in two states?? Probably no.

Will this set the stage for Rahul being anointed now or in next General Election for PM candidate?

Can Raul/Sonya factor be given credit of increase in voter turnout? There was a pic of very few voters turning up at a rally by Sonya.

Is Congo taking numbers after Modi canvassed for BJP? Or is it some new caste divide and rule and loot combination conjured up by con race?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 May 2013 00:02

caste divide will always be there in desh elections. who in the insane world can think otherwise. without these caste, there is no elections at all i say.. or for that matter, there is no living or democracy. caste and education are the two fundamental and sentimental problems of desh.

btw, if one has to come out such a caste nutshell, then it has to be something this is universal enough to accept a person or party. con angrez party is well known for the gullible mass, that enables them to maintain their status quo, with a quid pro quo deal with these brainlets is all they have been doing, and will continue to do so for at least another century or so.

it would take at least 100 years or couple of generations to realize that there is a better geometric distribution of voting mindset changing towards thinking what policies and politics matters, and what does not. i don't think, even then, there would be any sustained sane minds entering real politics.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 06 May 2013 00:57

Here is a comparison of 11 exit polls for Karnataka elections

Karnataka Exit Polls - Summary

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 May 2013 00:58

Published on May 05, 2013
70.23% voter turnout in Karnataka Assembly Elections: PTI

Bangalore: A 70.23 per cent voter turnout was recorded on Sunday in the high-stake Karnataka Assembly elections amid projections that the ruling BJP was on a slippery ground against a resurgent Congress.

The polling began on a brisk note at 7 am and the turnout ebbed in the afternoon as the mercury soared before regaining momentum in the last hours in 223 seats in the 224-member House for which a total of 2,940 candidates were in the fray with a 4.35 crore-strong electorate eligible to vote.

Election in Periyapatna in Mysore district has been put off to May 28 following the death of the BJP candidate.

Electoral officials tonight said 70.23 voting percentage was recorded with the highest turnout of 77.95 per cent in Bangalore Rural and the lowest of 52.83 per cent in Bangalore Urban.

Counting of votes will be taken up on May 8.

Prominent candidates included Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar, Leader of Opposition in the Assembly Siddaramaiah, President of Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee G Parameshwara, former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa and JDS state unit President HD Kumaraswamy.

Elaborate security arrangements had been made with 1.35 lakh police personnel on duty in some 52,000 polling booths where about 65,000 electronic voting machines were in place.

Barring sporadic incidents, including one at Bellary, the voting was largely peaceful. None of the incidents was of such a nature that called for repolling, Chief Electoral Officer Anil Kumar Jha told reporters.

While the overall voter turnout was 64.91 per cent in the 2008 elections, the average in the 28 segments of Bangalore was a low 47.3 per cent.

Jha said two officials on poll duty died at Honnavar in Uttara Kannada and Tumkur district.

Sectoral Officer MC Mahendra died before poll in Honnavar early today and Thimmaiah, who was the Presiding Officer, passed away due to suspected cardiac arrest in a booth in Madhugiri taluk.

A Haveri report said Leelavathi Mekki, a 28-year-old teacher, who reported for poll duty yesterday at Negalur in Haveri district, complained of chest pain and died today in neighbouring Davangere, where she was shifted.

Pre-poll surveys and exit polls have predicted that Congress is all set to unseat the BJP to stage a comeback to power after more than an eight-year long gap.

With KJP expected to play spoiler to the prospects of BJP, its strength is forecast to dwindle by more than half from 110 seats it won in the 2008 elections installing the party's first ever government in South.

JDS is projected to improve by a dozen seats compared to 28 the last time around. Police said they arrested four persons who were openly wielding swords in the district headquarters town of Kolar, adding that a major clash was averted between supporters of an Independent and a political party.

At Sidlagatta in Chikkaballapura district, one person was injured seriously by supporters of another party.

In a Bellary booth, a voter was allegedly hit by a policeman over a trivial issue and sustained injuries in the ear.

In the 2008 elections to the total of 224 seats, BJP, bagged 33.86 per cent of the votes polled, followed by Congress (34.59) with 80 seats and JDS 19.13 per cent votes.

James B · Post by **James B** » 06 May 2013 01:38

RajeshA wrote:70.23 per cent voter turnout

High voter turn out usually means anti-incumbency. Sits well with the exit poll results. BJP on the way out.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 06 May 2013 01:46

James B wrote:
RajeshA wrote:70.23 per cent voter turnout
High voter turn out usually means anti-incumbency. Sits well with the exit poll results. BJP on the way out.

It is not such a linear relation. Gujarat 2012 had 70.75% turnout (Pro-Modi votes + Anti-Incumbency) and UP 2012 had 60% turnout (Anti-Incumbency was the cause). If anti-incumbency is the reason for turnout, we should expect 2/3rd majority for INC.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 May 2013 01:53

^^^^

I think, the voting percentages have consistently increased across the country. I don't think the win and losses have anything to do with these voting percentages but it is definitely on the percentage swings and percentage splits. In KA if we go by exit polls, it seems like BJP will not pull even 60+ and INC gets 120 which means that KJP defeated BJP.

KJP defeated BJP should be important and unless some heads roll in BJP, this fetish from Kalyan Singh's saga never ends. The heads should roll even if they are big. What is the point of any ideals if they don't help to win the elections?

munna · Post by **munna** » 06 May 2013 02:08

Muppalla wrote:
KJP defeated BJP should be important and unless some heads roll in BJP, this fetish from Kalyan Singh's saga never ends. The heads should roll even if they are big. What is the point of any ideals if they don't help to win the elections?

The ideals are indeed useful to win election although from opposition's point of view

. The so called ideals in BJP are a ruse for settlement of internal scores and conveniently side stepping those who do not tow central party line. Yeddyurappa will remain the architect of BJP's win in the past and the nemesis of the present. He did not deserve such a treatment, even if he was nepotistic or corrupt he was theirs at end of the day. The sad mad hatter show continues.....

By the way Punjab BJP's legislative party leader, Bhagat Chuni Lal stringently defended the same Blue Star memorial a few months ago that has now come to house Bhindranwales photo. Nationalist party?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 May 2013 02:15

munna ji, I think the problems of Punjab BJP and the leadership tussles will be settled in favor of "right persons" in the next two months. I really things will not be same after the loss of KA anymore. I think June is the month to watch for the changes. The last jhappad will be given.

In KA what is being predicted is that about 100 seats will be decided by about 2 to 3K votes. If that is true the margin of error from all these exit polls will get exposed. Yeddi the spoiler is really massive anti-BJP force than anything. The guys who created this anti-BJP missile needs to be neutralized.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 May 2013 02:21

Dr. Subramanyam Swamy has said the general elections would be in October 2013, because Congress would not want to have them after December 2013 when 5 strong BJP states go to the polls. After a Karnataka win, it seems likely Congress would bring the next elections forward.

So basically in 3 days time, the run-up to India's next General Elections starts off in earnest!

munna · Post by **munna** » 06 May 2013 02:32

Muppalla wrote:munna ji, I think the problems of Punjab BJP and the leadership tussles will be settled in favor of "right persons" in the next two months. I really things will not be same after the loss of KA anymore. I think June is the month to watch for the changes. The last jhappad will be given.

Good for them Mupallaji because Jammu, HP and Punjab bordering Haryana are duly affected by fund raising and organizational capabilities of an 'in-power' unit of the party in vicinity.

In KA what is being predicted is that about 100 seats will be decided by about 2 to 3K votes. If that is true the margin of error from all these exit polls will get exposed. Yeddi the spoiler is really massive anti-BJP force than anything. The guys who created this anti-BJP missile needs to be neutralized.

Karnataka is truly a heartbreak! This was a state where chances of INC revival were truly bleak given Yeddy and Reddy cabal's strongmen tactics on the opposition and a strong caste coalition. The guys who failed to placate or cajole Yeddy do not deserve their jobs,

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 May 2013 02:35

In KA, if Congress remains below 100, BJP and KJP should reunite and support JD(S) for ruling party from outside. After Loksabha elections BJP+KJP should again take the call about entering the government in KA.

This way if BJP+KJP enter into an alliance with JD(S) and bring JD(S) into NDA, they can negotiate with JD(S) to leave maximum number of Loksabha seats for BJP+KJP.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 06 May 2013 05:41

James B wrote:I think people should give up the 'EVM magic' nonsense. If EVM was so magical why does BJP wins where it wins.

Given that minimum required levels of transparency are absent, such complacency is dangerous. This result may indeed be legit, but every result should be analyzed independently with all possibilities in mind.

James B · Post by **James B** » 06 May 2013 06:15

Per twitter trend #IndiaonSale, Aniruddh Bahl of Cobrapost is going to expose Biggest Scam after Indian independence at 10 am today.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 904870.cms

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 May 2013 06:18

James B wrote:Per twitter trend #IndiaonSale, Aniruddh Bahl of Cobrapost is going to expose Biggest Scam after Indian independence at 10 am today.

Everyone wants TRP. Why 10am? why not 7am?

James B · Post by **James B** » 06 May 2013 06:31

Pranav wrote:
James B wrote:I think people should give up the 'EVM magic' nonsense. If EVM was so magical why does BJP wins where it wins.
Given that minimum required levels of transparency are absent, such complacency is dangerous. This result may indeed be legit, but every result should be analyzed independently with all possibilities in mind.

I agree that EVMs should be tamper proof and results independently verifiable. But this argument of 'EVM Magic' comes up only when BJP loses.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 06 May 2013 06:36

James B wrote:
Pranav wrote: Given that minimum required levels of transparency are absent, such complacency is dangerous. This result may indeed be legit, but every result should be analyzed independently with all possibilities in mind.
I agree that EVMs should be tamper proof and results independently verifiable. But this argument of 'EVM Magic' comes up only when BJP loses.

Be that as it may, it does not invalidate the concern.

Also, this issue has come up only in the last few years, during which time we have had a Congress appointed EC. Perhaps, with a BJP appointed EC, there will be complaints even when the BJP wins.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 May 2013 07:04

The begin of the end of BJP in the south!? neither yeddi nor an yetti from the himalayas can shake kangrez now and in the future. good bye!

member_23629 · Post by **member_23629** » 06 May 2013 07:32

James B wrote:I think people should give up the 'EVM magic' nonsense. If EVM was so magical why does BJP wins where it wins.

EVM magic is very much there, especially in Lok Sabha elections.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 06 May 2013 07:35

SaiK wrote:The begin of the end of BJP in the south!? neither yeddi nor an yetti from the himalayas can shake kangrez now and in the future. good bye!

Exactly! Peninsula is under C-system control.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 06 May 2013 07:37

James B wrote: I agree that EVMs should be tamper proof and results independently verifiable. But this argument of 'EVM Magic' comes up only when BJP loses.

EVM majjic is not about BJP losing, it is about INC coming to power by achieving good balance of seats for UPA.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 May 2013 07:40

IMHO, BJP or any party that is trying to honestly topple congress and wants to do something for India development, must start a party that is not based on individuality or leadership basis, but party fundamental basis. A process or system can be only replaced by another system. not yeddi, modi or advani can help here. They have to create a national party in the first place, that makes presence 1:1 with congress. forgeddabodit man else.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 06 May 2013 07:58

varunkumar wrote:
James B wrote:I think people should give up the 'EVM magic' nonsense. If EVM was so magical why does BJP wins where it wins.
EVM magic is very much there, especially in Lok Sabha elections.

There is going to be a paper trail this time in Loksabha elections. Let's hope that will reduce, if not finish, EVM magic.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 06 May 2013 08:55

kittoo wrote:
varunkumar wrote: EVM magic is very much there, especially in Lok Sabha elections.
There is going to be a paper trail this time in Loksabha elections. Let's hope that will reduce, if not finish, EVM magic.

Nothing is definite as yet. There will be an all-party meet soon, however.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 06 May 2013 10:17

Sickuralism Zindabad.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 06 May 2013 10:27

EC has already told that paper trail is not possible in 2014 general elections. It is not required to manupulate all the EVMs. Tamper selectively and you will win. We need to remember the win and lose % is many times is very small. You need to "manage" to the extent of that %. Diggiraja did this in one election to rule MP for 5 more years. It was horrible rule and no one knows how he has won. In the end it was found that starting to voters list every thing was "managed". It did not work the next time though and he lost and INC never recovered in MP. This time I am told they are trying their level best there.

Karnataka - BJP raise is was systamatic and done over period of time and not some sudden waive in 2009. So BJP will remain relevant in Karnataka for some time to come. We also have to remember that there is no anti Congress party with presense in Karnataka now other than BJP. So people who want to vote against or vote out INC in the state has to vote for BJP. Deve Gowda do not have presence in most of the places. Hence we need not write of BJP in the state. % of votes for INC increased 1%. Hence this time there is no pro INC vote. Just BJP lost its 34% vote due to division and lost.

Delhi BJP gang of Anantha Kumar ( he was bood in the meetings in Bangalore and may not win MP seat next time) Sushma Swaraj and LK Advani are resposible for Karnataka lose and need to pay price. No one is saying that they should have kept Yaddi but at the same time every welwisher of BJP warned them to treat Yaddi well and keep him in good humour. They were not ready to do that and are now lost of state for BJP.

One more thing - Karnataka since 1977 voted against national treand so INC in Delhi may be on its way out by that treand.