Do you even read?? Or have the Atlanticists got to you???
Your argument is that somehow the extra traffic gives the LTTE a place to hide -
If shipping traffic is going through then larger IN vessels can also move in along with the patrol boats and others who are ALREADY there
If the Center wishes it can seal it airtight by chasing down thelogistics in TN.
Actually your argument implies we are so scared of the super duper LTTE that if something is benfical economically - we should not pursue it. We should nto have economic activity in the Naxalite areas because - damn they would get to raise more money. Absurd logic. Based on your logic we cannot have any economic investments in the NE, J&K, all the Naxalite areas. Good luck withthat plan.
Bottom line there is no security issue - else the Navy would have screamed bloody murder by now.
Large Infrastructure Projects: Inertia and Opposition
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enqyoobOLD
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Surya: If you search for "Fernandes Sethu Samudram Shipping Canal" on GOOGLE, you will find an article from way back while the NDA was in power. Maybe 2003. It says that Fernandes and a few top Navy officers were going around TN talking to the people about the project and emphasizing that it was essential for many things, including national security. The particular report I found was from Coimbatore, (deep in Bantustan.. 
) I think.
I am sure the Navy guys would take orders from the Raksha Mantri, so nothing much should be read into their support except that you are right - they were certainly not screaming murder. Nowadays the Navy just says that they have no comment, and they are not involved. I think this is because the project is proceeding without their having to get Pu thrown at them, so they leave well enough alone. Obviously, there are some negatives to going around TN when the TN govt is in DMK hands, saying that the project is good to stop the LTTE. As long as the DMK is interested in the Canal, that's all well and good, no sense in encouraging the Northern Oppression of Dravidans bogey.
Also, I firmly believe that a complete east-west coast-hugging route without the complications of entering SL waters, will make a huge change to coastal traffic, and hence to the coastal economy, of India. The road system in South India stinks. Yeah, I know, there are rail options, but fundamentally, shipping is probably much more efficient for most bulk, low-tech transport. If you look down from the airplane on coastal flights in India (west coast is what I've done the most), you see very little coastal traffic. This is mostly because the port infrastructure is not developed, and we depend too much on a few ports.
Someone asked if the canal would be used for Kolkotta - Gujarat type transport. I say why not? Once you load the stuff, the marginal cost of more distance is probably very small, for bulk goods. And numbers like 25% decrease in cost, mean jumps in business by orders of magnitude for such things, which are very price-sensitive. I don't think Indian rail is hurting for business. In fact, the export market is probably hurting because of the bottlenecks in the internal road system leading up to the ports. Look at "NH47" the glorified goat-track down to Kochi, and it's clogged every hour of the day and night with these ancient lorries moving at 15 mph, belching smoke, posing severe traffic hazards, driving all the way fro TN or even north India, coming over the Western Ghats. Talk about inefficient transport! I am sure this severely limits the number of freighters that can load up at Kochi or Vizhinjam.
The other big market is coastal tourism, obviously, and also, there may develop a yacht economy like that of California or Florida, with all the ppl who have money to pour into holes in the water.
) I think. I am sure the Navy guys would take orders from the Raksha Mantri, so nothing much should be read into their support except that you are right - they were certainly not screaming murder. Nowadays the Navy just says that they have no comment, and they are not involved. I think this is because the project is proceeding without their having to get Pu thrown at them, so they leave well enough alone. Obviously, there are some negatives to going around TN when the TN govt is in DMK hands, saying that the project is good to stop the LTTE. As long as the DMK is interested in the Canal, that's all well and good, no sense in encouraging the Northern Oppression of Dravidans bogey.
Also, I firmly believe that a complete east-west coast-hugging route without the complications of entering SL waters, will make a huge change to coastal traffic, and hence to the coastal economy, of India. The road system in South India stinks. Yeah, I know, there are rail options, but fundamentally, shipping is probably much more efficient for most bulk, low-tech transport. If you look down from the airplane on coastal flights in India (west coast is what I've done the most), you see very little coastal traffic. This is mostly because the port infrastructure is not developed, and we depend too much on a few ports.
Someone asked if the canal would be used for Kolkotta - Gujarat type transport. I say why not? Once you load the stuff, the marginal cost of more distance is probably very small, for bulk goods. And numbers like 25% decrease in cost, mean jumps in business by orders of magnitude for such things, which are very price-sensitive. I don't think Indian rail is hurting for business. In fact, the export market is probably hurting because of the bottlenecks in the internal road system leading up to the ports. Look at "NH47" the glorified goat-track down to Kochi, and it's clogged every hour of the day and night with these ancient lorries moving at 15 mph, belching smoke, posing severe traffic hazards, driving all the way fro TN or even north India, coming over the Western Ghats. Talk about inefficient transport! I am sure this severely limits the number of freighters that can load up at Kochi or Vizhinjam.
The other big market is coastal tourism, obviously, and also, there may develop a yacht economy like that of California or Florida, with all the ppl who have money to pour into holes in the water.
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emsin
I don't know how many people here have been through the Malacca straits, Suez or Panama..but all said and done even if you have'nt, lets not take Sanjay's concern mockingly. He might be trying to raise an issue that we are overriding in some way. Malacca is the worlds busiest waterway. Yet piracy is so rampant..they board ships in the worlds busiest shipping lane, attack, loot and get away and much more.
It's important to understand who will have control of the waterway? Central or will it be handed to the state. This waterway can certainly make it easier for larger ships to offload a small consignment of arms 100 Nm off Ram Sethu enroute to Zhangjhigang, China..no one can notice that. No radar can catch that.
It may still be done but then ships must be well south of Sri lanka to do so. I doubt they'd do it off Colombo etc. LTTE does get arms and it's not air traffic that delivers them. It's sea based.
I'm not certain of security implications here, but i want to be also sure this does'nt make it easier to do so.
It's important to understand who will have control of the waterway? Central or will it be handed to the state. This waterway can certainly make it easier for larger ships to offload a small consignment of arms 100 Nm off Ram Sethu enroute to Zhangjhigang, China..no one can notice that. No radar can catch that.
It may still be done but then ships must be well south of Sri lanka to do so. I doubt they'd do it off Colombo etc. LTTE does get arms and it's not air traffic that delivers them. It's sea based.
I'm not certain of security implications here, but i want to be also sure this does'nt make it easier to do so.
Look, there is a difference in risk here. If I'm wrong, we lose the so-called "economic benefit" (of saving a few hours on shipping from where to where again?)Surya wrote:Do you even read?? Or have the Atlanticists got to you???
Your argument is that somehow the extra traffic gives the LTTE a place to hide -
If shipping traffic is going through then larger IN vessels can also move in along with the patrol boats and others who are ALREADY there
If the Center wishes it can seal it airtight by chasing down thelogistics in TN.
Actually your argument implies we are so scared of the super duper LTTE that if something is benfical economically - we should not pursue it. We should nto have economic activity in the Naxalite areas because - damn they would get to raise more money. Absurd logic. Based on your logic we cannot have any economic investments in the NE, J&K, all the Naxalite areas. Good luck withthat plan.
Bottom line there is no security issue - else the Navy would have screamed bloody murder by now.
But if you're wrong, then we could suffer the breakup of the country.
There are plenty of choice moments in history when our sentinels didn't scream bloody murder when they should have. Teetering of the Shah, unnecessary Buddha Smiling, failure of PVNR to do Pokhran-II following the French nuclear test, Rajiv 1985 visit to Washington, Lahore Bus Diplomacy by Hajpayee, etc.
It's laughable to argue that bringing large navy ships into the Palk Straits will somehow offset the advantage that the traffic of a commercial shipping lane gives to LTTE. Please cite me a similar precedent anywhere in the world.
There's no need to destroy a nice place. It's a nice ecologically undamaged area.
It's also laughable to argue that a shipping circumnavigation around the Tamil Nadu coastline would create "more jobs for small business" than an internal road transport network would.
Look at the precedent of the Alaska pipeline. That's a land-based transport channel, as opposed to the sea-borne shipping transport that was originally proposed as the alternative. The Canadian govt successfully lobbied the US to go for the pipeline, as it would create more jobs in Canada, and would avoid the problem of nasty oil spills harming the coastline. You'll see what happens to Tamil Nadu fishing ecology if you try to make a heavy shipping lane through that fragile area.
As for Gujarat to Kolkatta, you'll find that road trucking is immensely faster compared to slower speed of sea-borne transportation. It also creates more jobs and economic activity. Trucking/transport and ancillary industries (roadside eateries, etc) are easily more in the domain of small business than big shipping companies. I don't see the US economy transporting goods from NY to LA or vice-versa by going through Panama Canal. They send it all by road transport.enqyoob wrote:Surya: If you search for "Fernandes Sethu Samudram Shipping Canal" on GOOGLE, you will find an article from way back while the NDA was in power. Maybe 2003. It says that Fernandes and a few top Navy officers were going around TN talking to the people about the project and emphasizing that it was essential for many things, including national security. The particular report I found was from Coimbatore, (deep in Bantustan..
I am sure the Navy guys would take orders from the Raksha Mantri, so nothing much should be read into their support except that you are right - they were certainly not screaming murder. Nowadays the Navy just says that they have no comment, and they are not involved. I think this is because the project is proceeding without their having to get Pu thrown at them, so they leave well enough alone. Obviously, there are some negatives to going around TN when the TN govt is in DMK hands, saying that the project is good to stop the LTTE. As long as the DMK is interested in the Canal, that's all well and good, no sense in encouraging the Northern Oppression of Dravidans bogey.
Also, I firmly believe that a complete east-west coast-hugging route without the complications of entering SL waters, will make a huge change to coastal traffic, and hence to the coastal economy, of India. The road system in South India stinks. Yeah, I know, there are rail options, but fundamentally, shipping is probably much more efficient for most bulk, low-tech transport. If you look down from the airplane on coastal flights in India (west coast is what I've done the most), you see very little coastal traffic. This is mostly because the port infrastructure is not developed, and we depend too much on a few ports.
Someone asked if the canal would be used for Kolkotta - Gujarat type transport. I say why not? Once you load the stuff, the marginal cost of more distance is probably very small, for bulk goods. And numbers like 25% decrease in cost, mean jumps in business by orders of magnitude for such things, which are very price-sensitive. I don't think Indian rail is hurting for business. In fact, the export market is probably hurting because of the bottlenecks in the internal road system leading up to the ports. Look at "NH47" the glorified goat-track down to Kochi, and it's clogged every hour of the day and night with these ancient lorries moving at 15 mph, belching smoke, posing severe traffic hazards, driving all the way fro TN or even north India, coming over the Western Ghats. Talk about inefficient transport! I am sure this severely limits the number of freighters that can load up at Kochi or Vizhinjam.
The other big market is coastal tourism, obviously, and also, there may develop a yacht economy like that of California or Florida, with all the ppl who have money to pour into holes in the water.
Economic benefit to Tamil Nadu would come from a land-based road-distribution network, which will create a myriad of jobs for small businesses. Economic benefits will not accrue from strongman Karunanidhi's control over some canal causeway, as if he was Panama strongman Noriega, or Egyptian strongman Mubarak.
DMK supporters might like to see Muthuvel reaping some kind of canal tollgate revenue for his centralized state-controlled economy. But I'm not a DMK supporter and don't see him as an ally of small business or free market deregulation. The Stalin-admiring Karunanidhi seems to prefer a nice tight state control over the economy, National Socialist style, in order to keep the Shylock-brahmin enemy from sucking the blood out of the vulnerable proletariat. He seems to prefer control over broadcast media rather than deregulation, he seems to prefer control over a lot of things, to help him accomplish his social engineering. That's not a philosophy of free market choice, or a pro-small-business stance, no matter what you may hear from his supporters on this forum.
Any revenue from this shipping canal will only be pocketed by the DMK, and any failure of money to trickle down to the masses will be conveniently blamed on the Shylock/Brahmin class enemy who is claimed to be the real reason why the poor are poor. You can't kill the goose that lays the golden egg, and DMK can't allow the poor to develop, otherwise there'd no longer be a vote bank to milk for votes.
Why should LTTE danger present or future be a "factor"? It is an open secret the relationship between LTTE and organizations in Tamil Nadu including DMK.SanjayM wrote
The danger of LTTE benefitting from the nearby flow of shipping traffic past its nose is not being addressed here at all, and it needs to be.
Nobody seems to be doing the important assessment on this.
Even to any layman it will be evident that LTTTE can sabotize the canal at will.
It would only take a small boat with suicide LTTE cadres to disrupt whatever so called "ecnomic" benefit that is projected.
In short we are giving noose in the hands of the LTTE. Lets no forget their goal of greater Elam.
But why should the Tamils care. It is in their benefit. Because in future any national govt. in Delhi can be held at ransom and demands fulfilled using LTTE factor.
Even to protect the canal against such acts will cost "resources". Who will pay for this "extra" "expenditure". Where will these resources come from.
My opinion
WHY SHOULD beleivers of "Rama" TAX PAYERS PAY FOR IT? When their "GODS" and "HOLY BOOKS" are insulted for the very same dubious "Project"
If you want this project the "money" for resources for the canal should come from "tax payers of Tamil Nadu" "only".
If the project is not scrapped than simple fact is that a movement should be started against all the "sponsors" and "investors" of this project. They need to be boycotted by all "Hindu" consumers worldwide. GOI will be forced to disinvest their investments in any other areas in India.
If these people want "War" fine it will be fought on all fronts let it be social, ecnomic or politcal and even "geo-political" front.
Oh joy
The logicof indygill is all that is needed.
Cough Cough - by your logic there will not be any need for extra defence. Since if the DMK and LTTE are hand in hand along with most of TN
- SURELY they willnot ask for extra resources for defence??? Why would they defend when they are one and the same !!!!!
Every party at the Center and TN has pussy footed around the LTTE except Amma and that was only because the LTTE chose the worng backer
And indygill wants war - - good luck - Time to remove all TN related news from the India on th emarch thread - since all that will not matter
The logicof indygill is all that is needed.
Cough Cough - by your logic there will not be any need for extra defence. Since if the DMK and LTTE are hand in hand along with most of TN
- SURELY they willnot ask for extra resources for defence??? Why would they defend when they are one and the same !!!!!Every party at the Center and TN has pussy footed around the LTTE except Amma and that was only because the LTTE chose the worng backer
And indygill wants war - - good luck - Time to remove all TN related news from the India on th emarch thread - since all that will not matter
indygill: you're getting a little excited man. the benefits of the bridge are well documented. if anything, MuKa and Co have turned this project into what it is right now with their vitriolic statements. but he's sending signals that realignment is possible. so, that'll probably happen in the end, and that's how this project will go on. also, why are we turning this into a TN vs Rest of India issue??? by doing this, we not only increase the appeal of MuKa types in their respective states but also sow seeds of disunity. this is what i hate about the BJP. they set about doing the right thing, but they do it the wrong way. by making statements like, "oh, these statements are normal from TN b/c of their Dravidian background" we not only confirm to their beliefs and give it mainstream status but provide a very effective platform for MuKa and his fellas to tell their constituency that there is nothing wrong with it.
Things were going on quitely and under the pretext of prescribed system. It was taking its normal course with diferent institutions and interest gorup arguing for it and against it.that's how this project will go on. also, why are we turning this into a TN vs Rest of India issue???
Until the congress, Leftists and DMK chief change this project from a "development" project to a "religious" bashing project.
You are suggesting that DMK and other political outfits are the most "honest" institutions. Right? And they never propogated the dream of united elam????Cough Cough - by your logic
Not excited at all. I am only talking of the worse situation and in India it doesn't take much for situations to get to worse.indygill: you're getting a little excited man. the benefits of the bridge are well documented
Are benefits worth hurting Religious Sentiments of over 580 million Hindus who consider Rama as their God and the bridge sacred?
Aborting of Pakistan Silk Road projectSurya wrote:Sanjay
Ok give me the precedent that an econmic project was stopped because it will give somepotential cover to terrorists.
Aborting of Pakistan/Unocal project creating Taliban to annex Afghanistan to create oil pipeline to Turkmenistan
Standstill of China-Pak Karakoram Highway to Muslim/Uighur Xinjiang
US opposition to Iran-Pak-India pipeline
US opposition to all trade with Iran
US opposition to trade with Cuba
Turkish opposition to trade with Northern Iraq
Russian cessation of oil supplies to Georgia
Precedents for doing the exact opposite:
India (Lahore Bus Service)
I don't think the Navy is sufficiently focused against LTTE's (currently) low-level threat to see what could happen.If a threat exists , you evaluate it and make the adjustments.
If the Navy tells me, that it is a security threat I will believe it.
Till then it is just a red herring.
Did the USN ever forecast drug boats coming up from Columbia?
US Coast Guard was dealing with the threat after it came into existence - unsuccessfully, of course.
That's probably what we'll end up doing. The problem will start to emerge, we'll try to take belated steps to address, but by then it will be too late.
Thank you Sanjay
What awesome comparisons ??
Everything going through TSP and Afghanisthan.
And all this war torn. mullah and jihadi infested places are equal equal to a little strait between India and Sri lanka. (Even these will eventually happen for the right price - jihadis be damned)
And the the final gem - I should trust you over the Indian Navy because you have better strategic vision.
I rest my case.
What awesome comparisons ??
Everything going through TSP and Afghanisthan.
And all this war torn. mullah and jihadi infested places are equal equal to a little strait between India and Sri lanka. (Even these will eventually happen for the right price - jihadis be damned)
And the the final gem - I should trust you over the Indian Navy because you have better strategic vision.
I rest my case.
Why should interior road network not be developed in Tamil Nadu? Why shouldn't this be pursued to create more economic activity and jobs? Why would shipping create more jobs than road networks? Why would ships stop off to eat at small eateries along their journey, as compared to truckers who would? Where is the trickledown?PradyD wrote:indygill: you're getting a little excited man. the benefits of the bridge are well documented. if anything, MuKa and Co have turned this project into what it is right now with their vitriolic statements. but he's sending signals that realignment is possible. so, that'll probably happen in the end, and that's how this project will go on. also, why are we turning this into a TN vs Rest of India issue??? by doing this, we not only increase the appeal of MuKa types in their respective states but also sow seeds of disunity. this is what i hate about the BJP. they set about doing the right thing, but they do it the wrong way. by making statements like, "oh, these statements are normal from TN b/c of their Dravidian background" we not only confirm to their beliefs and give it mainstream status but provide a very effective platform for MuKa and his fellas to tell their constituency that there is nothing wrong with it.
Look at WBengal/Kolkata/CPI-M model of "development" -- they aren't deregulating state controls to allow freedom for small businesses. They want to keep the reins tight, and focus on bringing the big Tata auto-plant deals, where they get to sell the land and pocket the money. Look at Kerala communists selling land to ISRO and pocketing money. Those special big-project deals where they get a cut/skim into their own pockets, is a lot different than free market deregulation that helps small businesses compete in an open market where the License Raj guys can't skim off their own cut. Small business interests require deregulation, but deregulation means giving up state control that's necessary for socialists to maintain their grip and pursue their social engineering.
DMK/CPI-M style Stalinists won't go for that. They want only big projects, where they hold the levers of power, and can then demand their cut.
That's not economic reform to create wider prosperity.
Staving off wider prosperity then also allows them to continue playing their game of class/caste warfare.
The big-project game means no deregulation or trickledown of wealth to the masses, and the frustration of those masses can then continue to be blamed on the Evil Brahmin Shylocks and their historical oppression, blahblahblah.
Make money for yourself/cronies only, and tell the masses to blame their misery on Shylock.
DMK's not going to throw away that winning formula, otherwise they'd be sawing off the tree-branch that holds them up. This canal project is consistent with that formula.
Err Indygill - read my post again. If you have followed me in this forum - I will have executed the DMK for their behaviour against the IPKF. -
The likes of the DMK caused us TamBrams to move out to seek jobs and lives in other places. So we could care a rats ass about the DMK.
Try and read again and see if you can understand
Basically we cannot hold things ransom to every religious feeling, belief etc. PRetty much every tree, stone, animal can have religious significance in India.
On the other hand you could consider carting the whole link\structure whatever to Ayodhya and recreate it. The 580 million believers I am sure could then see it and revere it. and leave the 200 million who do not believe in it to pursue the economic challenges ahead. That will be a great compromise.
The likes of the DMK caused us TamBrams to move out to seek jobs and lives in other places. So we could care a rats ass about the DMK.
Try and read again and see if you can understand
Basically we cannot hold things ransom to every religious feeling, belief etc. PRetty much every tree, stone, animal can have religious significance in India.
On the other hand you could consider carting the whole link\structure whatever to Ayodhya and recreate it. The 580 million believers I am sure could then see it and revere it. and leave the 200 million who do not believe in it to pursue the economic challenges ahead. That will be a great compromise.
On the other hand you can also consider funding the "carting out" Or) the simply asking them to follow the path you have chosen [ie. "move out"]. How about that for a compromise ?Surya wrote: The likes of the DMK caused us TamBrams to move out to seek jobs and lives in other places. So we could care a rats ass about the DMK.
Basically we cannot hold things ransom to every religious feeling, belief etc. PRetty much every tree, stone, animal can have religious significance in India.
On the other hand you could consider carting the whole link\structure whatever to Ayodhya and recreate it. The 580 million believers I am sure could then see it and revere it. and leave the 200 million who do not believe in it to pursue the economic challenges ahead. That will be a great compromise.
While we decide, I will treat myself to the the convulsing Michael.J Fox on TV, due to lack of stem cell research.
Now who is "us" and who are the "Brits", in the above case [wrt. your earlier proposal].Surya wrote:Nope - It is like the Brits asking us to pay send their Gateway of India back to them if someone choses to put a freeway through it.
. We both love "IPKF" though.. Take some more time, to brainstorm as the numbers seem to be quite large !. For you safety onlee..If a change \move is feasible - then fine.
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enqyoobOLD
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Ohh I hope that was not a threat Wow Indygill threatened war, and now you. N3 we may have to surrender to the new Vanar army.
we in the Brit context was India.
In the other case it would be TN after all they consider it an invader relic whether you want to believe it or not and since you are all about honouring beliefs!!!
No more time for brainstorming on this.
Way too much time wasted on this - while the Panda races on.
Wow Indygill threatened war, and now you. N3 we may have to surrender to the new Vanar army. we in the Brit context was India.
In the other case it would be TN after all they consider it an invader relic whether you want to believe it or not and since you are all about honouring beliefs!!!
No more time for brainstorming on this.
Way too much time wasted on this - while the Panda races on.
But the numbers of 500mil["believers"] and 200 mil don't match up. Hmm.. you can try once more ..Surya wrote:Ohh I hope that was not a threat
we in the Brit context was India.
In the other case it would be TN after all they consider it an invader relic whether you want to believe it or not and since you are all about honouring beliefs!!!
No more time for brainstorming on this.
Way too much time wasted on this - while the Panda races on.
And don't shoot from other's shoulders.. There's only one "vanar" here.. that's me..
Cant call in the "IPKF" at this time though !!-
enqyoobOLD
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My Alternative Proposal
TN needs to be offered a better alternative for economic development than this "Sethusamudram" scam.
What's needed is a proposal for a project that spearheads development of an extensive road network in Tamil Nadu.
A land-based distribution network will generate far more economic activity and economic trickledown, and will help economic activity penetrate more extensively into the state.
This sea-based shipping scheme, by contrast, will see shipping lanes running immediately adjacently along the shorelines of India, generating pollution and environmental damage. There will be no economic benefit to the interior of Tamil Nadu, which will be bypassed by these routes. (I'm sure that Karunanidhi/DMK are well aware of this, as they don't wish to saw off the political tree-branch they're perched upon, given that they want to milk the economic frustration of the masses for their racially-based national socialist movement.)
A land-based road infrastructure network will foster all kinds of small business activity and opportunities that the capital-intensive large-scale shipping companies would not provide. When Western countries in recession want to create jobs, they say "Let's build more highways, let's fix our roads" -- they don't say "let's sanction more shipping lanes"
Given that a road-based domestic transportation industry would be in competition with any sea-based rival, the creation/fostering of road-based transport industry would help to create a natural lobby against Sethusamudram schemes/stunts.
An alternative plan needs to be proposed, in order to steal the initiative and the thunder away from DMK.
What's needed is a proposal for a project that spearheads development of an extensive road network in Tamil Nadu.
A land-based distribution network will generate far more economic activity and economic trickledown, and will help economic activity penetrate more extensively into the state.
This sea-based shipping scheme, by contrast, will see shipping lanes running immediately adjacently along the shorelines of India, generating pollution and environmental damage. There will be no economic benefit to the interior of Tamil Nadu, which will be bypassed by these routes. (I'm sure that Karunanidhi/DMK are well aware of this, as they don't wish to saw off the political tree-branch they're perched upon, given that they want to milk the economic frustration of the masses for their racially-based national socialist movement.)
A land-based road infrastructure network will foster all kinds of small business activity and opportunities that the capital-intensive large-scale shipping companies would not provide. When Western countries in recession want to create jobs, they say "Let's build more highways, let's fix our roads" -- they don't say "let's sanction more shipping lanes"
Given that a road-based domestic transportation industry would be in competition with any sea-based rival, the creation/fostering of road-based transport industry would help to create a natural lobby against Sethusamudram schemes/stunts.
An alternative plan needs to be proposed, in order to steal the initiative and the thunder away from DMK.
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emsin
Abek posted this in India interests thread..X posting here.
By Col (retd) Anil Athale
By Col (retd) Anil Athale
http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?id=1 ... =SHGTslot3Col. (retd) Anil A Athale is a Fellow at the Centre for Armed Forces Historical Research. A former Joint Director (History Division) and infantryman, he has been running an NGO, Peace and Disarmament, based in Pune for the past 10 years. As a military historian he specialises in insurgency and peace process.
The Sethusamudram project to link Palk Strait with
Gulf of Mannar by dredging a deep channel in sea and cutting the Ram Sethu has evoked controversy on several grounds. It destroys the Ram Sethu, a land bridge described first in Rishi Valmiki written Ramayana around 200 BC, a cultural heritage for not just India but many South East Asian countries as well (it is also a national epic of Muslim majority Indonesia).
Ecologists and environmentalists object saying it will destroy the fragile eco system in Palk Strait and Gulf of Mannar and rich marine life there. Many express fear that the breaching of Ram Sethu will subject the western coast to tsunami threat since Indonesia and sea around it are prone to earthquakes. While it may be argued that only a small channel is being cut in the natural (or manmade) land formation of Ram Sethu, marine and hydraulics engineers will testify that the largescale transfer of water in an uncontrolled manner (there is no proposal to install any kind of underwater gates etc) will eventually erode the entire Ram Sethu barrier in course of time. What that will do to the rich thorium, monazite, zircon and other mineral deposits on Kerala beaches is a huge question mark.
But most surprisingly and regrettably, the military strategic aspects of the whole project have not even entered public discussion. By the accounts in the media, the channel passes very close to Talaimanar coast of Sri Lanka, far to the South East of centre line dividing the sea between India and Sri Lanka. It is most likely within the Sri Lankan territorial waters. The reason why Sri Lanka has not forcefully objected to this is because the Talaimanar area is in LTTE’s control (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam). In any case the channel, if completed on the lines planned now, the South Eastern end will be controlled by Sri Lanka. Control and ownership of this channel will be a new point of dispute between India and Sri Lanka. Since it appears to be clearly inside the Sri Lankan territorial waters, at some point, Sri Lanka (with the help of an outside power, obviously) will not only claim control but also may decide to deny us the use of this channel.
There is likelihood that under the existing regime of law of the sea, this will fall under the category of ‘International Waterway’, like the Suez and Panama Canals or Dardanelles and Bosporus straits. Thus it will not be farfetched to see the Chinese moving their warships through this, establishing their right. The Americans regularly do this in case of Hormuz Strait joining Gulf of Oman with Persian Gulf defying the Iranians.
The alternative proposal of dredging a channel to the North West of the current alignment and cutting a link channel through the Rameswaram makes eminent strategic and ecological sense. By creating a controlled water body with inlet gates, there will be no surge of waters from one ocean to other, thus saving the marine ecology as well as ore deposits of Kerala. But most importantly, the canal will be well within our territory and control. Strategically this will be most useful in time of tensions. It will also make sure that another point of friction with Sri Lanka is avoided. Obviously there will be some cost escalation and even extra time. But looking at the long term benefits and payoff, it is a price worth paying.
In any case the extra cost can easily be recovered from fee levied on shipping, both domestic and international. Canal management and associated works will create jobs for the locals, thus getting their support.
India has a history of committing strategic blunders in last 60 years! The loss of Skardu in 1947, the famous ‘throw out the Chinese’ remark by Nehru on 12 September 1962 and disastrous ‘forward policy’ that led to the 1962 humiliation at the hands of the Chinese or failure to push for severing the land link between Pakistan and China during the 1971 war. The list is long and seemingly unending. It was the hope and expectation of think tanks like Inpad that a formal structure like the NSC (National Security Council) that we lobbied for over 10 years, will cure us of this disease. But the episode of Ram Sethu project that seems to have ignored the military strategic factors puts a question mark on the efficacy of the government apparatus.
The second possibility is that the political leadership overruled the strategic experts and decided to go ahead with its plans! In that case, is it the pressure of Secularist Taliban that forced the government to go ahead with the plan not so for the sake of easing the problems of navigation between India’s East and West coast but with an aim to further consolidate its vote bank? The denial of historicity of Ram seems to show that this is an attempt to woo back the vote bank that seemed to be drifting away due to Indo-US nuclear deal. In the second part we will deal with this deep-seated mindset of Secularist Taliban of India.
'The Sethu Samudram does not make nautical sense'
Continuing our series on the Sethu Samudram Shipping Canal Project, Shobha Warrier speaks to Captain (retired) H Balakrishnan of the Indian Navy to know a mariner's view of the project. Captain Balakrishnan has been associated with the navy for 32 years.
He was one of the first batch of three Indian naval officers to do specialisation in anti-submarine warfare in the erstwhile USSR Naval War College.
Out of interest, he did a study on the Sethu Samudram Shipping Canal Project from a mariner's point of view. Ever since the series appeared in the Indian Express, the captain has been much sought after for his interesting calculations.
Why did you get interested in the Sethu Samudram Shipping Canal Project?
I don't belong to any political party. It was purely a mariner's interest that made me research the project. There were many reports and statements in the media but I found that the mariner's point of view was not talked about at all. It is sad that even today the entire discourse on the project has got completely side tracked from the main issue; that is, the project is for ships and the shipping industry.
As a mariner, how do you describe the Sethu Samudram project?
The Sethu Samudram project, if I can put it simply from a mariner's stand point, does not make any nautical sense.
Why do you say so?
I have worked on the project from three different perspectives, all concerning the nautical world. I analysed the project in the backdrop of the environmental factors that would impinge the safety of the ship and also the safety of lives at sea. Number two was the security aspects which is maritime terrorism as it stands today. And the third was certain aspects of general navigation.
What does your research on the environmental factors say?
We mariners call the coast between Rameswaram and Cuddalore the cyclone coast. The India Meteorological Department has assigned this coastline as a high risk probability. To site one example, in 1964, the Pamban Bridge was washed away by a severe cyclonic storm.
A ship is safe when she is moving at the onset of a cyclone. Imagine a ship waiting to pick up its pilot as it approaches the Palk Straits to enter Sethu Samudram. No captain will wait for the pilot; his safety lies in heading south, towards Sri Lanka [Images].
The wind and waves bring in a large amount of silt and wash it ashore. The same thing is going to happen to the Sethu Samudram Canal. This brings me to another point. Marine scientists have identified five areas on the Indian coastline they call high-sinkage pits, and one of them happens to be the Palk Straits.
What is left unsaid by the Sethu Samudram authorities is that maintaining the 12 metre depth (of the channel) will entail round the year dredging. Once you establish the channel, you have to maintain it.
You mean other than the capital expenditure, there will be maintenance expenditure too. Will that be expensive?
Naturally. But this cost is not mentioned anywhere. This is the hidden cost which the authorities will have to pay to the dredging company. It is a high siltation and sedimentation area. So, what you pick up today is going to get filled up the next day.
What is the security threat you spoke about?
The Sea Tigers of the LTTE have control of that area off the Jaffna coast. What the Sea Tigers may do is difficult to say. Piracy exists even today.
Those who are against the project say the 12 metre depth of the Canal is not enough for big ships to pass through the canal. As a mariner, what is your opinion on this?
It is quite true. If you take global shipping trends today, to reduce operating cost, they go in for larger ships of the order of 60,000 deadweight tonnes and above. A 60,000 deadweight tonne carrier will need anything in excess of 17 metres of draft.
And as far as tankers go, the days of the super tanker are gone and you see only very large crude carriers of the type of 150,000 and 185,000 tonnes. It makes more sense to have such big tankers as in one voyage, you are bringing in more cargo and reduce your operating cost.
None of these big ships will ever be able to use the Sethu Samudram. So, the question is, for whom are you building the canal? 30,000 tonnes was alright when Sethu Samudram was conceived in the early fifties and the sixties.
That leaves you with only the coastal bulk carriers that carry coal from Kolkata, Paradeep and Visakhapatanam to Chennai or Tuticorin.
How much time and money are saved if the ships go through the Sethu Samudram Canal instead of going round Sri Lanka?
I plotted physically on a chart what we call 'passage planning' for a bulk carrier on passage as it happens today from Kolkata to Tuticorin; one of them circumnavigating Sri Lanka as is happening today and the other one going through the canal.
The voyage distance from Kolkata to Tuticorin around Sri Lanka works out to 1227 nautical miles. If you went through the canal, it is 1098 nm. So, you are saving just 120 odd nm.
The story doesn't end there. The majority of our bulk carriers go at a speed between 12 and 13 knots. That is the average speed at sea. I have checked with my friends who currently sail. They all said they do 12 knots. However, I worked in a bracket of 12-15 knots. So, if you are going around Sri Lanka at 12 knots at constant speed at sea, the time taken to reach outer anchorage at Tuticorin is 102 hours and 15 minutes.
When you go through Sethu Samudram, the point to be remembered is, you cannot proceed at the speed at which you are sailing at sea. The reason is the shallow water effect or what we call the 'Squat Effect'. So, the moment you enter Sethu Samudram, you have to reduce the sped by 50 per cent or more depending on the conditions prevailing at that particular time. So, I worked on a speed bracket of 6-8 knots. But many of my friends tell me 8 knots is too high for a 30,000 tonne bulk carrier. In all my calculations, I gave the benefit of doubt to the Sethu Samudram project.
The second aspect is, it is not an open seaway; it is like entering a port. A pilot boards the ship, who is a local mariner with greater knowledge of the marine environment. The same thing has to be done at Sethu Samudram also. I have given one hour delay for the ship to reduce speed for the pilot to climb aboard. You repeat the process at the other end too for him to disembark.
With this 6 knots speed and 2 hours pilotage delay, my time to Tuticorin via Sethu Samudram works out to 100 hours 30 minutes. If you went around Sri Lanka, it is 102 hours 15 minutes! So, your net savings in time by going through Sethu Samudram is 1 hour 45 minutes! Is it worth spending Rs 2,400 crore to save 1 hour 45 minutes?
You spoke of travel time. What about the cost?
The Sethu Samudram project from the media reports and the statement given by the finance minister will cost at Rs 2,400 crore, of which Rs 971 crore is through a special purpose vehicle. The debt portion has been pegged at Rs 1,465 crore. Assuming an interest burden of 10 per cent, the interest payment on Rs 1,465 crore is Rs 146 crore per annum. Twenty to 25 years is the time given for repayment.
Assuming 25 years for Rs 1,465 crore, capital repayment works out about 56 crore per annum. So, Rs 146 crore for interest burden and Rs 56 crore as repayment works out to roughly Rs 204 crore per annum which is what the authorities will have to repay to any financial institution. This is only to break-even. But the web site says it is a profitable industry and it is going to make 'mammoth profit'.
As the earning is going to come only from ships, I asked, how many ships are going to transit in a year through the canal? Ships that can use the canal will be coal carrying bulk carriers as long as the Tuticorin thermal power plant exists.
Having made the calculation, I feel they are rather optimistic in their figures. They have given a mean value of about 3,055 ships meant to use the canal in the year 2008 and by the year 2025, they expect it to go to in excess of 7,000 ships. Mind you, for 12 metres of depth! But I can't see more than 1,000 ships using the Sethu Samudram canal in a year.
If you take Rs 204 crore as annual repayment, and 1,000 ships use it, your per ship cost works out to Rs 22 lakhs pilotage charge to break even. There is an interesting comparison done by K S Ramakrishnan, former deputy chairman, Chennai Port Trust. He pegs around Rs 50 lakh as pilotage rate per ship if you have to make a profit.
Then I calculated the fuel consumed. These ships consume 1 metric tonne of fuel per hour, which costs Rs 24,000. For the Sethu Samudram canal, you have to add the pilotage cost too. In effect, if a ship goes through the canal, a shipping company loses Rs 19 lakh per voyage. It is more cost effective to circumnavigate Sri Lanka from the point of view of the shipping industry.
Therefore, neither are you saving time nor is it viable economically. These are the two aspects that need to be highlighted. So, there is absolutely no advantage to the ships and the shipping industry. So, what are we gaining by spending Rs 2,400 crore of tax payers' money? It is a white elephant in the making.
So, you must be against realignment which some political parties are talking about�
Any course, any realignment, is going to prove uneconomical to the shipping industry. If it is of no use to the shipping industry, why build it? You can bring about better economic progress to the southern districts of Tamil Nadu by building expressways. That is why I say the Sethu Samudram shipping canal project makes no nautical sense. That is the tragedy of the project.
Those who support the Sethu Samudram Canal compare it to the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal and say the Sethu Samudram is the Suez of the East.
In the case of the Suez and the Panama canals, ships save thousands of nautical miles in sailing distance and hundreds of hours in sailing time vis-�-vis the Sethu Samudram where a ship will probably save a few hundred miles and at the most twohours in sailing time. This is the difference.
Continuing our series on the Sethu Samudram Shipping Canal Project, Shobha Warrier speaks to Captain (retired) H Balakrishnan of the Indian Navy to know a mariner's view of the project. Captain Balakrishnan has been associated with the navy for 32 years.
He was one of the first batch of three Indian naval officers to do specialisation in anti-submarine warfare in the erstwhile USSR Naval War College.
Out of interest, he did a study on the Sethu Samudram Shipping Canal Project from a mariner's point of view. Ever since the series appeared in the Indian Express, the captain has been much sought after for his interesting calculations.
Why did you get interested in the Sethu Samudram Shipping Canal Project?
I don't belong to any political party. It was purely a mariner's interest that made me research the project. There were many reports and statements in the media but I found that the mariner's point of view was not talked about at all. It is sad that even today the entire discourse on the project has got completely side tracked from the main issue; that is, the project is for ships and the shipping industry.
As a mariner, how do you describe the Sethu Samudram project?
The Sethu Samudram project, if I can put it simply from a mariner's stand point, does not make any nautical sense.
Why do you say so?
I have worked on the project from three different perspectives, all concerning the nautical world. I analysed the project in the backdrop of the environmental factors that would impinge the safety of the ship and also the safety of lives at sea. Number two was the security aspects which is maritime terrorism as it stands today. And the third was certain aspects of general navigation.
What does your research on the environmental factors say?
We mariners call the coast between Rameswaram and Cuddalore the cyclone coast. The India Meteorological Department has assigned this coastline as a high risk probability. To site one example, in 1964, the Pamban Bridge was washed away by a severe cyclonic storm.
A ship is safe when she is moving at the onset of a cyclone. Imagine a ship waiting to pick up its pilot as it approaches the Palk Straits to enter Sethu Samudram. No captain will wait for the pilot; his safety lies in heading south, towards Sri Lanka [Images].
The wind and waves bring in a large amount of silt and wash it ashore. The same thing is going to happen to the Sethu Samudram Canal. This brings me to another point. Marine scientists have identified five areas on the Indian coastline they call high-sinkage pits, and one of them happens to be the Palk Straits.
What is left unsaid by the Sethu Samudram authorities is that maintaining the 12 metre depth (of the channel) will entail round the year dredging. Once you establish the channel, you have to maintain it.
You mean other than the capital expenditure, there will be maintenance expenditure too. Will that be expensive?
Naturally. But this cost is not mentioned anywhere. This is the hidden cost which the authorities will have to pay to the dredging company. It is a high siltation and sedimentation area. So, what you pick up today is going to get filled up the next day.
What is the security threat you spoke about?
The Sea Tigers of the LTTE have control of that area off the Jaffna coast. What the Sea Tigers may do is difficult to say. Piracy exists even today.
Those who are against the project say the 12 metre depth of the Canal is not enough for big ships to pass through the canal. As a mariner, what is your opinion on this?
It is quite true. If you take global shipping trends today, to reduce operating cost, they go in for larger ships of the order of 60,000 deadweight tonnes and above. A 60,000 deadweight tonne carrier will need anything in excess of 17 metres of draft.
And as far as tankers go, the days of the super tanker are gone and you see only very large crude carriers of the type of 150,000 and 185,000 tonnes. It makes more sense to have such big tankers as in one voyage, you are bringing in more cargo and reduce your operating cost.
None of these big ships will ever be able to use the Sethu Samudram. So, the question is, for whom are you building the canal? 30,000 tonnes was alright when Sethu Samudram was conceived in the early fifties and the sixties.
That leaves you with only the coastal bulk carriers that carry coal from Kolkata, Paradeep and Visakhapatanam to Chennai or Tuticorin.
How much time and money are saved if the ships go through the Sethu Samudram Canal instead of going round Sri Lanka?
I plotted physically on a chart what we call 'passage planning' for a bulk carrier on passage as it happens today from Kolkata to Tuticorin; one of them circumnavigating Sri Lanka as is happening today and the other one going through the canal.
The voyage distance from Kolkata to Tuticorin around Sri Lanka works out to 1227 nautical miles. If you went through the canal, it is 1098 nm. So, you are saving just 120 odd nm.
The story doesn't end there. The majority of our bulk carriers go at a speed between 12 and 13 knots. That is the average speed at sea. I have checked with my friends who currently sail. They all said they do 12 knots. However, I worked in a bracket of 12-15 knots. So, if you are going around Sri Lanka at 12 knots at constant speed at sea, the time taken to reach outer anchorage at Tuticorin is 102 hours and 15 minutes.
When you go through Sethu Samudram, the point to be remembered is, you cannot proceed at the speed at which you are sailing at sea. The reason is the shallow water effect or what we call the 'Squat Effect'. So, the moment you enter Sethu Samudram, you have to reduce the sped by 50 per cent or more depending on the conditions prevailing at that particular time. So, I worked on a speed bracket of 6-8 knots. But many of my friends tell me 8 knots is too high for a 30,000 tonne bulk carrier. In all my calculations, I gave the benefit of doubt to the Sethu Samudram project.
The second aspect is, it is not an open seaway; it is like entering a port. A pilot boards the ship, who is a local mariner with greater knowledge of the marine environment. The same thing has to be done at Sethu Samudram also. I have given one hour delay for the ship to reduce speed for the pilot to climb aboard. You repeat the process at the other end too for him to disembark.
With this 6 knots speed and 2 hours pilotage delay, my time to Tuticorin via Sethu Samudram works out to 100 hours 30 minutes. If you went around Sri Lanka, it is 102 hours 15 minutes! So, your net savings in time by going through Sethu Samudram is 1 hour 45 minutes! Is it worth spending Rs 2,400 crore to save 1 hour 45 minutes?
You spoke of travel time. What about the cost?
The Sethu Samudram project from the media reports and the statement given by the finance minister will cost at Rs 2,400 crore, of which Rs 971 crore is through a special purpose vehicle. The debt portion has been pegged at Rs 1,465 crore. Assuming an interest burden of 10 per cent, the interest payment on Rs 1,465 crore is Rs 146 crore per annum. Twenty to 25 years is the time given for repayment.
Assuming 25 years for Rs 1,465 crore, capital repayment works out about 56 crore per annum. So, Rs 146 crore for interest burden and Rs 56 crore as repayment works out to roughly Rs 204 crore per annum which is what the authorities will have to repay to any financial institution. This is only to break-even. But the web site says it is a profitable industry and it is going to make 'mammoth profit'.
As the earning is going to come only from ships, I asked, how many ships are going to transit in a year through the canal? Ships that can use the canal will be coal carrying bulk carriers as long as the Tuticorin thermal power plant exists.
Having made the calculation, I feel they are rather optimistic in their figures. They have given a mean value of about 3,055 ships meant to use the canal in the year 2008 and by the year 2025, they expect it to go to in excess of 7,000 ships. Mind you, for 12 metres of depth! But I can't see more than 1,000 ships using the Sethu Samudram canal in a year.
If you take Rs 204 crore as annual repayment, and 1,000 ships use it, your per ship cost works out to Rs 22 lakhs pilotage charge to break even. There is an interesting comparison done by K S Ramakrishnan, former deputy chairman, Chennai Port Trust. He pegs around Rs 50 lakh as pilotage rate per ship if you have to make a profit.
Then I calculated the fuel consumed. These ships consume 1 metric tonne of fuel per hour, which costs Rs 24,000. For the Sethu Samudram canal, you have to add the pilotage cost too. In effect, if a ship goes through the canal, a shipping company loses Rs 19 lakh per voyage. It is more cost effective to circumnavigate Sri Lanka from the point of view of the shipping industry.
Therefore, neither are you saving time nor is it viable economically. These are the two aspects that need to be highlighted. So, there is absolutely no advantage to the ships and the shipping industry. So, what are we gaining by spending Rs 2,400 crore of tax payers' money? It is a white elephant in the making.
So, you must be against realignment which some political parties are talking about�
Any course, any realignment, is going to prove uneconomical to the shipping industry. If it is of no use to the shipping industry, why build it? You can bring about better economic progress to the southern districts of Tamil Nadu by building expressways. That is why I say the Sethu Samudram shipping canal project makes no nautical sense. That is the tragedy of the project.
Those who support the Sethu Samudram Canal compare it to the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal and say the Sethu Samudram is the Suez of the East.
In the case of the Suez and the Panama canals, ships save thousands of nautical miles in sailing distance and hundreds of hours in sailing time vis-�-vis the Sethu Samudram where a ship will probably save a few hundred miles and at the most twohours in sailing time. This is the difference.
Last edited by AshokS on 01 Oct 2007 22:50, edited 2 times in total.
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enqyoobOLD
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Ah!
The objectivity of this "32 years associashun with the Navy onlee" expert comes out loud and clear in this statement:
Ah!
It's roughly an addition of 400 miles to the trip from, say, Chennai to Tuticorin.
So, in two hours, on any ol' steamer that goes 200 miles an hour..
OOOOO!!! I can SEE that this is an EXPERT on all matters nautical!
And his comment about "that area is controlled by Sea Tigers even today onlee" shows his utter commitment to the security of India, and to Indian Naval superiority over India's coastal waters.
What was this "Captain"'s "asses-ocean" with the Indian Navy, one wonders..
I thought I had seen it all with the RSS' Pamban Channel / Tsunami Will Wash Away Thorium Deposits science expertise. But this NAUTICAL expertise is simply beyond words...
The objectivity of this "32 years associashun with the Navy onlee" expert comes out loud and clear in this statement:
a few hundred miles and at the most twohours in sailing time. This is the difference.
Ah!
It's roughly an addition of 400 miles to the trip from, say, Chennai to Tuticorin.
So, in two hours, on any ol' steamer that goes 200 miles an hour..
OOOOO!!! I can SEE that this is an EXPERT on all matters nautical!
And his comment about "that area is controlled by Sea Tigers even today onlee" shows his utter commitment to the security of India, and to Indian Naval superiority over India's coastal waters.
What was this "Captain"'s "asses-ocean" with the Indian Navy, one wonders..
I thought I had seen it all with the RSS' Pamban Channel / Tsunami Will Wash Away Thorium Deposits science expertise. But this NAUTICAL expertise is simply beyond words...
N3, you loose credibility with your unnecessary color commentary... please tone it down (and don't retort with you are a 4 year old according to Yahoo- that stuff got old a while back...pls work on some new materialenqyoob wrote:Ah! (deleted)
What was this "Captain"'s "asses-ocean" with the Indian Navy, one wonders..
I thought I had seen it all with the RSS' Pamban Channel / Tsunami Will Wash Away Thorium Deposits science expertise. But this NAUTICAL expertise is simply beyond words...
).The merits of the Ram Sethu project is questionable at best, the motives for the project are suspect, and the antics displayed by unsavory politicians from the left to the UPA to the evanjehadis suggest that this project should be scrapped to the dustbins (or port holes of the supporters).
The Captain (give him his due, doc) ..does make some interesting points:
1) The travel distance difference without the Ram Sethu canal is 120 nm. So where is this envisaged savings in distance for a mere 120 nm? (see quoted para below)...
2) The ships sailing in the current route (around Sri Lanka) will have a higher average sailing speed, since its the high seas sailing. The ships going through the canal will have to go through pilotage speeds (half of high seas sailing, pilotage embarking/disembarking)
3) The net difference in the total sailing time between the two routes he calculates is 1 hr 45 minutes
4) The canal cannot support ships of more economical DWT in the 60K class
5) Sedimentation rates and frequent cyclones doesn't make the canal particularly attractive for navigation. Requires constant dredging to make it navigable.
6) The piloting charges themselves for ships to pass to the canal seem to be high
7) If money can be Rs 2,000 to 3,000 crore made available for investment in infrastructure upgrades - then why choose to invest in this venture with questionable payoffs? From a port infrastructure perspective - wouldn't it make sense to invest in port development/roads to ports, etc rather than this?
The voyage distance from Kolkata to Tuticorin around Sri Lanka works out to 1227 nautical miles. If you went through the canal, it is 1098 nm. So, you are saving just 120 odd nm.
The story doesn't end there. The majority of our bulk carriers go at a speed between 12 and 13 knots. That is the average speed at sea. I have checked with my friends who currently sail. They all said they do 12 knots. However, I worked in a bracket of 12-15 knots. So, if you are going around Sri Lanka at 12 knots at constant speed at sea, the time taken to reach outer anchorage at Tuticorin is 102 hours and 15 minutes.
When you go through Sethu Samudram, the point to be remembered is, you cannot proceed at the speed at which you are sailing at sea. The reason is the shallow water effect or what we call the 'Squat Effect'. So, the moment you enter Sethu Samudram, you have to reduce the sped by 50 per cent or more depending on the conditions prevailing at that particular time. So, I worked on a speed bracket of 6-8 knots. But many of my friends tell me 8 knots is too high for a 30,000 tonne bulk carrier. In all my calculations, I gave the benefit of doubt to the Sethu Samudram project.
The second aspect is, it is not an open seaway; it is like entering a port. A pilot boards the ship, who is a local mariner with greater knowledge of the marine environment. The same thing has to be done at Sethu Samudram also. I have given one hour delay for the ship to reduce speed for the pilot to climb aboard. You repeat the process at the other end too for him to disembark.
With this 6 knots speed and 2 hours pilotage delay, my time to Tuticorin via Sethu Samudram works out to 100 hours 30 minutes. If you went around Sri Lanka, it is 102 hours 15 minutes! So, your net savings in time by going through Sethu Samudram is 1 hour 45 minutes! Is it worth spending Rs 2,400 crore to save 1 hour 45 minutes?
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enqyoobOLD
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Thank you for pointing out the madarssa math behind that calculation of "several hundred miles in two hours". Interesting.
So he slowed down ships on the SSC route, claiming a 12-15 Knot speed for the very large ships that ply the ocean route, compared to 6 knots and long pilotage delays for the canal route. Had he slowed it a bit more to account for all the Holies coming out to do Satyagraha and Protect the Sethu and Save Hindu Sentiment, he could have proved that NO time was saved, and that the shorter route takes much longer.
There IS a concept called "drag" where Drag is proportional to Square of Speed... and Drag is responsible for much of the cost of fuel. Perhaps Navy ships in his time did not care about cost of fuel, since the taxpayer foots it, but I think shippers with REAL "nautical sense" might care a lot.
Also, what about the ships that are small enough that any sign of rough seas, high winds on the east side of SL in the Indian ocean means a 1-week layover at some port to avoid getting killed? Or .. running for a harbour controlled by the Sea Tigers?
Also, could you check how many tramp steamers do 12-15 knots steady out on the open ocean?
The argument here seems to be that we only care about 60KT bulk carriers (I seem to remember a co-ed in the eye-eye-tee who was called that... of course, not where she could hear it... )
The prime beneficiaries of the canal are INDIAN small shippers who don't need pilotage, and who currently must risk their crews' lives to go around SL. The Captain (Retd) of the Indian Navy seems all too happy to leave those to the tender mercies of the Sea Tigers who "anyway control that area onlee".
And the problem here is that I might lose credibility? Thanks, but that would just bring me to the level of a Captain (Retd) of the Indian Navy with all that Nautical Expertise and care for India, hey?
This sedimentation argument seems to now have replaced the bogus Tsunami arguments. Needs looking into. If I read this right, the Palk strait is unique in that sand is always flowing in one direction there. May be true.. or may be nonsense like the tsunami argument, given who is articulating it. The allegation being made (as I read elsewhere on Shobha Warrier's uber-objective cobra-journalism articles) is that the govt has been continually dredging for several years now, but cannot show us where the dredged sand is. Could it be that they are being responsible and dumping it in a distributed manner where there is already sand, at a greater depth, instead of creating new islands with it? I am asking - I just don't know. But from the sorts of arguments being advanced by the Opposition, there is every reason to be skeptical in the extreme about their claims.
Why does this sand invasion not happen to Kochi port, which was also dredged? The soil there seems pretty sandy as well.
So he slowed down ships on the SSC route, claiming a 12-15 Knot speed for the very large ships that ply the ocean route, compared to 6 knots and long pilotage delays for the canal route. Had he slowed it a bit more to account for all the Holies coming out to do Satyagraha and Protect the Sethu and Save Hindu Sentiment, he could have proved that NO time was saved, and that the shorter route takes much longer.
There IS a concept called "drag" where Drag is proportional to Square of Speed... and Drag is responsible for much of the cost of fuel. Perhaps Navy ships in his time did not care about cost of fuel, since the taxpayer foots it, but I think shippers with REAL "nautical sense" might care a lot.
Also, what about the ships that are small enough that any sign of rough seas, high winds on the east side of SL in the Indian ocean means a 1-week layover at some port to avoid getting killed? Or .. running for a harbour controlled by the Sea Tigers?
Also, could you check how many tramp steamers do 12-15 knots steady out on the open ocean?
The argument here seems to be that we only care about 60KT bulk carriers (I seem to remember a co-ed in the eye-eye-tee who was called that... of course, not where she could hear it...
)The prime beneficiaries of the canal are INDIAN small shippers who don't need pilotage, and who currently must risk their crews' lives to go around SL. The Captain (Retd) of the Indian Navy seems all too happy to leave those to the tender mercies of the Sea Tigers who "anyway control that area onlee".
And the problem here is that I might lose credibility? Thanks, but that would just bring me to the level of a Captain (Retd) of the Indian Navy with all that Nautical Expertise and care for India, hey?
This sedimentation argument seems to now have replaced the bogus Tsunami arguments. Needs looking into. If I read this right, the Palk strait is unique in that sand is always flowing in one direction there. May be true.. or may be nonsense like the tsunami argument, given who is articulating it. The allegation being made (as I read elsewhere on Shobha Warrier's uber-objective cobra-journalism articles) is that the govt has been continually dredging for several years now, but cannot show us where the dredged sand is. Could it be that they are being responsible and dumping it in a distributed manner where there is already sand, at a greater depth, instead of creating new islands with it? I am asking - I just don't know. But from the sorts of arguments being advanced by the Opposition, there is every reason to be skeptical in the extreme about their claims.
Why does this sand invasion not happen to Kochi port, which was also dredged? The soil there seems pretty sandy as well.
It took about 2/3rd of your post to state that its all about the little guysâ„¢ - Yes...the poor, plighted small scale trawlers that need to be spared the dangers of the extra 120 nm....
Ok, so it appears you have a bleeding heart for the little guys and the UPA govt shares this viewpoint - in the longstanding fine Indian government's tradition of looking out for the little guyâ„¢. - oh yeah, we know thats not the case. So what is the real reason?
Why cut through the Sethu? Aside from the fact that the Ram Sethu canal DOES NOT NEED to be developed the way its currently aligned (i.e. through the sethu) to serve the little guysâ„¢ (alternate routes would work for the little guysâ„¢, in my opinion).
The Captain however states in his interview feels even the alternate routes are not viable (from sedimentation, cyclone, and general economic sense). So he is not out there to bash the Ram Sethu canal, frankly his interview seemed very objective. Rather, N3, your response and demonstrably Pavlovian attacks on anything counter to the Ram Sethu project does raise questions on your keen interest on this project (its actually surprising).
A couple of other points:
1) Small scale trawling is not the wave of the future, it does not make sense to invest in an expensive canal that does not provide significant economic returns. With this 1900's logic I'll bet the little guysâ„¢ (American edition) are hoping that the US Government reinvests in the lost glory of the Erie Canal system....so the little guysâ„¢ (American edition) can gainfully contribute to the economy....
Invest for future growth with real returns - not to score points.
2) You can't say its for the safety of the little guysâ„¢.. that they can't safely circumnavigate the 120nm around Sri Lanka. I have been on remote islands (literally just my family visiting on the entire island) in the Andaman and Nicobar chain and have seen small trawlers stop by. In fact one of the islands I went to (several hours each way in the open ocean, no land to be seen in sight) was on a small uncovered dinghy (would be classified as a motorized canoe in the US). The trip sucked, I was sun burned badly - but the island was beautiful. The boatsmen told me they go back and forth to the mainland all the time in their small boat. So saftey really isn't an issue for the little guysâ„¢.
Actually safety might be worse with the Sethu canal (sedimentation, cyclones, the LTTE, etc). By the way don't discount the LTTE, if they have the will, they will capture the Indian seamen. Don't overstate the ability of the Indian Navy to monitor each and every ship/trawler. Tell that fantasy story to the hundreds of Indian seamen languishing in Pakistani jails for fishing or sailing in Indian/International waters. Or for that matter Indian seamen shot by the LTTE and Sri Lankan navy in the past.
3) Oh by the way the 30K DWT ships actually do sail at 10 to 15 kts, thats an efficient speed. Trawlers and barges might be lower but the canal can be built to circumvent the Sethu.
4) The Indian govt should look to to increasing the scale of the Indian shipping industry either though consolidation and or regulation. This measure usually introduces new things to small scale industries - such as safety (remember the little guysâ„¢ ) and also more important things from a economic perspective that might actually increase the efficiency and returns in the industry.... That would mean moving to larger tonnage ships and use more efficient routes. The need for a small canal does not make sense this day and age. Spend the money on improving general port / shipyard / road infrastructure.
5) Why would the little guysâ„¢ and others want to spend money each time they sail through the Sethu canal for pilotage when they can do it for free now around Sri Lanka.
6) Exactly what cargo are the little guysâ„¢ carrying that is of significant value that they need an efficient way (i.e. shave off a few hours to 1 day) to move from the west coast to the east coast?
7) There is more than circumstantial evidence of the Ram Sethu existing, wouldn't it be prudent for the sake of Indian history to investigate the area properly. The sentiments of hundreds of millions can't be discounted by a motley group of communist, thugs, evanjihadis, and so called rationalist.
Given the above and the antics of the UPA thugs/goons/etc - exactly what was that benefit of cutting through the Ram Sethu again?
- Yes...the poor, plighted small scale trawlers that need to be spared the dangers of the extra 120 nm.... Ok, so it appears you have a bleeding heart for the little guys and the UPA govt shares this viewpoint - in the longstanding fine Indian government's tradition of looking out for the little guyâ„¢.
- oh yeah, we know thats not the case. So what is the real reason?Why cut through the Sethu? Aside from the fact that the Ram Sethu canal DOES NOT NEED to be developed the way its currently aligned (i.e. through the sethu) to serve the little guysâ„¢ (alternate routes would work for the little guysâ„¢, in my opinion).
The Captain however states in his interview feels even the alternate routes are not viable (from sedimentation, cyclone, and general economic sense). So he is not out there to bash the Ram Sethu canal, frankly his interview seemed very objective. Rather, N3, your response and demonstrably Pavlovian attacks on anything counter to the Ram Sethu project does raise questions on your keen interest on this project (its actually surprising).
A couple of other points:
1) Small scale trawling is not the wave of the future, it does not make sense to invest in an expensive canal that does not provide significant economic returns. With this 1900's logic I'll bet the little guysâ„¢ (American edition) are hoping that the US Government reinvests in the lost glory of the Erie Canal system....so the little guysâ„¢ (American edition) can gainfully contribute to the economy....
Invest for future growth with real returns - not to score points.
2) You can't say its for the safety of the little guysâ„¢.. that they can't safely circumnavigate the 120nm around Sri Lanka. I have been on remote islands (literally just my family visiting on the entire island) in the Andaman and Nicobar chain and have seen small trawlers stop by. In fact one of the islands I went to (several hours each way in the open ocean, no land to be seen in sight) was on a small uncovered dinghy (would be classified as a motorized canoe in the US). The trip sucked, I was sun burned badly - but the island was beautiful. The boatsmen told me they go back and forth to the mainland all the time in their small boat. So saftey really isn't an issue for the little guysâ„¢.
Actually safety might be worse with the Sethu canal (sedimentation, cyclones, the LTTE, etc). By the way don't discount the LTTE, if they have the will, they will capture the Indian seamen. Don't overstate the ability of the Indian Navy to monitor each and every ship/trawler. Tell that fantasy story to the hundreds of Indian seamen languishing in Pakistani jails for fishing or sailing in Indian/International waters. Or for that matter Indian seamen shot by the LTTE and Sri Lankan navy in the past.
3) Oh by the way the 30K DWT ships actually do sail at 10 to 15 kts, thats an efficient speed. Trawlers and barges might be lower but the canal can be built to circumvent the Sethu.
4) The Indian govt should look to to increasing the scale of the Indian shipping industry either though consolidation and or regulation. This measure usually introduces new things to small scale industries - such as safety (remember the little guysâ„¢ ) and also more important things from a economic perspective that might actually increase the efficiency and returns in the industry.... That would mean moving to larger tonnage ships and use more efficient routes. The need for a small canal does not make sense this day and age. Spend the money on improving general port / shipyard / road infrastructure.
5) Why would the little guysâ„¢ and others want to spend money each time they sail through the Sethu canal for pilotage when they can do it for free now around Sri Lanka.
6) Exactly what cargo are the little guysâ„¢ carrying that is of significant value that they need an efficient way (i.e. shave off a few hours to 1 day) to move from the west coast to the east coast?
7) There is more than circumstantial evidence of the Ram Sethu existing, wouldn't it be prudent for the sake of Indian history to investigate the area properly. The sentiments of hundreds of millions can't be discounted by a motley group of communist, thugs, evanjihadis, and so called rationalist.
Given the above and the antics of the UPA thugs/goons/etc - exactly what was that benefit of cutting through the Ram Sethu again?
Last edited by AshokS on 02 Oct 2007 05:45, edited 2 times in total.
I dont know what is wrong with the proposition that I want a clear path that goes around India without bothering about another nation like SL - screw the arguments about small boats vs large and SL LTTE threat. The Sethu history is all in the past. 10's of thousands of year from now SL may land up in the middle of the indian ocean closer to Ozland and expecting the Sethu to stretch from India to SL is absurd. Actually in modern times a modern bridge is called for not a Vanara built bridge. I say build me a 4 lane bridge over the ocean from Rameshwaram to SL Thailaimannar and also give me a free and clear path around India is all that I ask without having to go past SL.
N3: I dont think we can dismiss the captain's objections so easily. I suspect he is right for heavy ships and they may not end up using this at all.
The key of course is what is the proportion of ships that are in the 30K class or whatever draught that doesnt require a pilot currently that ply the route. If they dont exceed the ones that will require the pilot, we have a problem...
Cant comment on the finance part of it.
The key of course is what is the proportion of ships that are in the 30K class or whatever draught that doesnt require a pilot currently that ply the route. If they dont exceed the ones that will require the pilot, we have a problem...
Cant comment on the finance part of it.
Actually, given the above question it would be useful to find out the following:
- What is maximum draught level beyond which a pilot would be required?
- What is the proportion of traffic currently and projected that exceeds the above draught level?
- What is the proportion of traffic currently and projected that can pass through if the setu samudram bridge was not built?
- For security, what is the expected increase in costs for the IN to police the area after the SS bridge is built? Should tax payers foot the bill?
- What are the dredging costs? Are these costs to be borne by the government or by a private company?
Before i reply, i will remind you i am a practising mariner. Also I haven't seen the Captains full passage plan, neither the full route being planned deep water to deep water for the canal..maybe it's 30, 40 or 50 Nm, i don't know.So he slowed down ships on the SSC route, claiming a 12-15 Knot speed for the very large ships that ply the ocean route, compared to 6 knots and long pilotage delays for the canal route
However taking a speed of 6 knots for passage duration is fair. It's just not due to drag factors that speed is reduced, but also due to safety, proximity of other ships, ease of maneouverabilty, load factors on machinery. Many ships have to change over main propulsion from heavier fuel varieties to lighter and more expensive ones at lower speeds and keep it that way till deep waters. Lighter fuels are not run at full speed in many engines due to knocking and combustion characteristics.
I have done most canal systems around, including Suez, Panama, the ones in Great lakes. Suez and Panama save multi thousand nautical miles for ships pretty big in size. This project is not on any scale comparable with them. Even sailing from ports like Sakaiminato in Japan towards Australia, one does'nt necessarily take the shorter pilot route, but goes the extra 100 Nm for exactly the reasons mentioned above. In addition pilotage charges are pretty steep.
If the project is for smaller kinds of vessels, they should have designed the project just for them. A 5 meter draft would be good enough to maintain. It would allow most of 5000 t traffic to pass through with ease. Also about the pilotage, i doubt that 5000 tonners will be allowed to pass through without pilots. If i am not mistaken, pilotage rules should apply to anything above 200 GRT vesels. Pilotage payment is also according to tonnage most canal systems. Bigger ships > 60k would certainly be out specially in loaded conditions. So if this does go through, it would be a canal for smaller ships.
I'm a little surprised at how he came about only a difference of 120 Nm. You don't really need a proper chart, you can do the distance mapping on google pretty accurately for this purpose. I don't have access to google here, but i am sure many of you can verify the same.
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Theo_Fidel
Table 3
Expected number of transits through the Sethusamudram Channel
Rs. in Crores
Cargo
7m draught 9m draught 11m draught Transits Per year Savings (Rs) Transits Per year Savings (Rs) Transits Per year Savings (Rs)
POL & Specialized Cargo 282 39.39 366 51.97 522 75.75
Dry Bulk Cargo 120 11.92 120 11.92 120 11.92
General Cargo 1306 16.82 1306 16.82 1362 19.81
Total 1708 68.13Cr 1762 80.71Cr 2004 107.48Cr
Direct Benefits
The direct benefits are
* to the canal authority
* to the shipping company
* the channel will give sheltered water route from the western ports to the eastern ports
* Average time saved per voyage is 25 hours (average saving in distance 300 nautical miles and speed assumed as 12 knots)
* Average amount saved per voyage is Rs. 5.36 lakhs (2003)
Indirect Benefits
Some of the Indirect benefits are:
* The channel would save 25 hours of voyage and due to the lower consumption of fuel, there will be considerable savings of foreign exchange.
* The ships transporting coal between Tuticorin and Haldia normally take 4 days and the saving of 25 hours per voyage translates into 20% of the voyage time and in turn can make 20% more trips.
* The channel will be of very great importance from national defense and security point of view. The revenue from naval and coastal traffic will go up adding to indirect benefit
I'd like to add the following.
Due the lack of a channel Indian navy boats are unable to patrol this area at speed. They can enter but can't chase.
Global shipping companies do not have direct container lines to Chennai because of the additional cost. They force us to ship to Colombo adding to time and costs.
Tuticorin Outer Harbor will be the real beneficiary as it already has a 16m-18m draft and can be turned into a nice deep water port. There has been no need so far to develop this.
Expected number of transits through the Sethusamudram Channel
Rs. in Crores
Cargo
7m draught 9m draught 11m draught Transits Per year Savings (Rs) Transits Per year Savings (Rs) Transits Per year Savings (Rs)
POL & Specialized Cargo 282 39.39 366 51.97 522 75.75
Dry Bulk Cargo 120 11.92 120 11.92 120 11.92
General Cargo 1306 16.82 1306 16.82 1362 19.81
Total 1708 68.13Cr 1762 80.71Cr 2004 107.48Cr
Direct Benefits
The direct benefits are
* to the canal authority
* to the shipping company
* the channel will give sheltered water route from the western ports to the eastern ports
* Average time saved per voyage is 25 hours (average saving in distance 300 nautical miles and speed assumed as 12 knots)
* Average amount saved per voyage is Rs. 5.36 lakhs (2003)
Indirect Benefits
Some of the Indirect benefits are:
* The channel would save 25 hours of voyage and due to the lower consumption of fuel, there will be considerable savings of foreign exchange.
* The ships transporting coal between Tuticorin and Haldia normally take 4 days and the saving of 25 hours per voyage translates into 20% of the voyage time and in turn can make 20% more trips.
* The channel will be of very great importance from national defense and security point of view. The revenue from naval and coastal traffic will go up adding to indirect benefit
I'd like to add the following.
Due the lack of a channel Indian navy boats are unable to patrol this area at speed. They can enter but can't chase.
Global shipping companies do not have direct container lines to Chennai because of the additional cost. They force us to ship to Colombo adding to time and costs.
Tuticorin Outer Harbor will be the real beneficiary as it already has a 16m-18m draft and can be turned into a nice deep water port. There has been no need so far to develop this.
Bogus. Small truckers are more numerous and more beneficial than small shippers. I don't see small shippers dominating the light transport market in the UK over truckers. Sorry, but you're making up rationalizations on the fly.enqyoob wrote:The prime beneficiaries of the canal are INDIAN small shippers who don't need pilotage, and who currently must risk their crews' lives to go around SL. The Captain (Retd) of the Indian Navy seems all too happy to leave those to the tender mercies of the Sea Tigers who "anyway control that area onlee".
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Rahul Mehta
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a)Inside the canal, the ship will travel at low speed, not 12mphCalvin wrote: This is not exactly how a shipper looks at it. If they save a day, then that is an extra day for transportation.
Assuming that a ship travels at 12mph. We can deduce the following:
Chennai - Tuticorin distance goes from 900 mi to 500 mi, which means that the journey goes from 75 h to 41 h, or a reduction in travel time of 45%.
b)Also, the canal is wide enough only to let 4-6 ships pass at a time. So a ship may have to wait till it gets chance to go thru canal.
(a) and (b) prove that time saved may not be 75 - 41 = 34 hrs, but much less.
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And when it stops and restarts, some fuel is lost. And when it travels at low speed, it would give lesser fuel average. Hence fuel saved too will be less.
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It is best that this Rs 2400cr is spent on railways than in some 20m depp canal.
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Bade
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Silencing the roar of the falls
Gee..they cannot decide between tourist potential a few extra megawatts.
Gee..they cannot decide between tourist potential a few extra megawatts.