India-Russia: News & Analysis

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 18 Dec 2014 13:56

As I said, this is about all they can do to Russia.

Ultimately it is a land with a vast resource base and a good number of people and a country not upto its neck with worthless paper and debt masquerading as wealth.

Once the rouble stabilizes and the winter arrives in western Europe, you'll hear a whole different song.

Even as a symbolic gesture, BRICS should start buying up roubles. The psychological effect alone would be strong.

There are goods and resources all BRICS need which Russia can supply. Simply push forward the demand with a currency purchase ahead of time - and at favorable rates.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 18 Dec 2014 14:01

Neshant,

I was also in the wait and watch approach until Finland and Cuba and Sweden, and a ton of real commerce (google/apple/...) started showing up. This is a well rehearsed script being repeated. short of kosovans fleeing by the trainload over and over into albania everything else is in motion.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Dec 2014 14:03

Putin's Live Conference Q&A

http://rt.com/on-air/putin-annual-news-conference/

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 18 Dec 2014 14:54

A prominent opponent, former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, said the crisis showed Putin had mismanaged the economy and that he should organize free elections to quietly end his almost 15-year domination of Russia.

"Russia is going into decline," Kasyanov told Reuters in an interview late on Wednesday, suggesting Putin should accept that "he needs an exit strategy" to leave power.

Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said in a newspaper interview the Western sanctions were likely to last "a very long time" and Russia was paying the price for failing to carry out structural reforms, describing events as "the perfect storm".

"When a U.S. law is passed it is very hard to change it afterwards - looks like it will be in place for decades," Ulyukayev said, referring to U.S. moves on sanctions.

habal · Post by **habal** » 18 Dec 2014 15:22

poor things miss their Euro cheese already. Putin will do well to throw them into the bering st asap. Let them swim towards mama US and circumvent the sanctions in the warm waters.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 18 Dec 2014 16:09

Russia should blow up some energy infrastructure (oilfields, pipelines, ports where petroleum is pumped, etc) in Saudi Arabia to send energy prices back up again. That will be hitting the main culprit behind this war on Russia.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 18 Dec 2014 16:11

good idea, you seems to be spending too much time in that paki thread

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Dec 2014 16:12

Either the anti-Russian propaganda has started getting on to me or the situation for Russia is really getting dire by the day, but whatever be the case, I think there is only one way out for Russia.

Russia needs a channel to world capital flow. Russia needs investments. Russia needs labor.

With every other power, Russia is going to have problems. USA is out to get Russia. EU has turned against Russia. China is more like a hungry dragon sitting waiting to gulp the treasures and land lying in Russia's East. Islam will hollow out Russia through internal strife.

Russia has no friends. Except maybe India.

India and Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus) should agree for complete integration - free flow of capital and labor.

Russia should go ahead and import 25 million Indians, who can spread throughout Russia and demographically secure the land for Russia, just so that the dragon does not get funny ideas, as well as to serve as the bridge between Russian and Indian economy. India should also let Russians come to India for business and living.

One can consider it blood transfusion by India for Russia.

All alone Russia would slowly lose its autonomy and territory to USA, China, and the Islamics in the South.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 18 Dec 2014 16:14

maybe time for us to return the favor

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 18 Dec 2014 18:20

Being the owner of world's biggest nuclear arsenal frankly Russia doesn't need to import Indians to protect it's territory. It is a good opportunity for Russia as well as India to make themselves more independent from western sanctions. Create alternate systems to whatever the west is using to sanction Russia and we must join hands with them in doing so. The thing to be kept in mind is that while doing so we must not become a poodle of Russia.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 18 Dec 2014 18:32

Russia forgot to make friends when going was good. Now though it is being robbed & raped, the onlookers are silent.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 18 Dec 2014 19:28

Folks-what happens if Russia retaliates with its own economic nukes? Fully turn off all gas to Europe to freeze them and resort to capital controls to prevent capital flight?

Ramu · Post by **Ramu** » 18 Dec 2014 20:50

The current climate is targetted bullying against Putin mainly due to his pro-Russian policies.
This has a very high relevance to India. Remember Modi was targetted in the same way if not more until few months ago.
Lets assume Russian economy goes down the dogs in 2-3 years after these targetted sanctions and other means. The same west may/can start the same script against India before next elections to bring a loonie into power.
This episode is something we need to watch very closely and may be learn some tricks from Putin bhai. Out of all BRICS countries, only china is relatively immune to western bullying.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 18 Dec 2014 22:42

Both India and Russia should work for oil/gas pipelines from russia to India via tibet/xinjiang in China. India will get energy supplies that it badly needs and Russia will get an extremely valuable Customer for its crude/gas exports. Even China wins in this arrangement getting rentals for Right of way for pipeline going through its territory.

member_28722 · Post by **member_28722** » 18 Dec 2014 22:47

arshyam wrote:And what immigration law has been passed so far? All Obama did was to issue an executive action because the law wouldn't be passed by a Congress he/dems do not control anymore. An executive action is not a law, btw.

Both were impactful actions and my whole point was I would hardly call a president who takes tough decisions a lame duck.
(My last OT)

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 18 Dec 2014 23:46

Last two years of a president ineligible for further election are full of a)presidential pardons/get out of jail cards, b)random acts that could never pass as legislation. It is a "what have I got lose now" approach in this regard. There is nothing particularly long lasting or impactful in these actions. But they will make for good exhibits in a hawaii library building. This prose cost me 1 of my 2 cents left.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 18 Dec 2014 23:52

saurabh.mhapsekar wrote:
arshyam wrote:And what immigration law has been passed so far? All Obama did was to issue an executive action because the law wouldn't be passed by a Congress he/dems do not control anymore. An executive action is not a law, btw.
Both were impactful actions and my whole point was I would hardly call a president who takes tough decisions a lame duck.
(My last OT)

Replied in the OT thread.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 19 Dec 2014 03:32

Austin wrote:
nageshks wrote: Helping us get more SSBNs and smuggling in Afghans/Pakistanis into Europe are not mutually exclusive. In fact, it is a win-win situation. Russia gets money both from us and from the Afghans/Pakistanis and Europe gets levelled into the ground. Given the fertility rate of the Islamic immigrants, one would expect Poland to be flattened within a generation. I would like to see Brzezhinski's face when the Poles end up in the ghetto of Warsaw with Muslims ruling the roost. Wonder if there will be a new Wola massacre .....
Evil Mind

The Islamist are already growing in EU the seeds are sown , EU are already down to secular .....Too Scared to even Celebrate Christmas in order not to hurt sentiments

Euro-turds are more screwed than Unkil, but even with the 2030 projections, none of them will have a Muslim population beyond the 10% mark (France will be slightly over 10%). This was from a recent Pew research. They are just a bit smarter at waking up to the problem earlier than us. Moreover, since Muslim population is largely immigrant population (unlike us), they can bring in immigration-control (under the jobs-for-locals pretext) to stem the tide

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Dec 2014 06:14

In a cursory review, todin it is at least Belarus or Belarus propaganda, Audi, GM and Jaguar.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 19 Dec 2014 06:49

I googled, and found that Audi, GM, and Jaguar are halting sales in Russia. Jaguar=Tata, right? Not making any point, just curious - purely business decision on the part of Jaguar, or are they susceptible to US pressure?

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 19 Dec 2014 07:04

Ramu wrote:The current climate is targetted bullying against Putin mainly due to his pro-Russian policies.
This has a very high relevance to India. Remember Modi was targetted in the same way if not more until few months ago.
Lets assume Russian economy goes down the dogs in 2-3 years after these targetted sanctions and other means. The same west may/can start the same script against India before next elections to bring a loonie into power.
This episode is something we need to watch very closely and may be learn some tricks from Putin bhai. Out of all BRICS countries, only china is relatively immune to western bullying.

They are targeting Russia with a concerted attack on one single commodity - oil. Reports say their economy is dependent on oil export to the tune of 50%. Is there any such single commodity that can be targeted to bring India down? The only thing I can think of is to raise oil prices sky-high - and that would be devastating to a lot of economies. India has been under western sanctions before, the 1998 explosions were a major red-line that was crossed. Every country that sanctioned India then, has realized the futility of sanctions against India. Are they going to go back to that road?

Russia has a big dependence on raw material export. How much refining capacity do they have, and if they don't have much, then what exactly prevented them from developing it all these years?

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 19 Dec 2014 07:31

Russia can ask for payment for its oil in "any currency other than dollar". Iran already tried to trade in Euros only. If anything bothers America, that is it. At the rate things are going, the Russians may be better off selling us oil in Rupees. For our part, this is the time to ram home our needs in defense.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 19 Dec 2014 08:38

All these overblown reactions by the USA only serve to highlight their weak point again and again - dependence on dollar as the world's reserve currency. The US better stay on top, and be seen to stay on top. One little stumble, and a lot of waiting wolves are going to be at their throat.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Dec 2014 09:29

Victor wrote:Russia can ask for payment for its oil in "any currency other than dollar". Iran already tried to trade in Euros only. If anything bothers America, that is it. At the rate things are going, the Russians may be better off selling us oil in Rupees. For our part, this is the time to ram home our needs in defense.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... uan-ruble/

“We are leaving the dictatorship of the market where oil is priced in dollars and will increase the possibilities of using the ruble and the yuan,” Putin said in an interview with the news agency.

Selling in Rouble would also make its currency stronger then what it is now

But then I think its more of in need to protect its own economy then the dollar dictator stuff that is propagated , You cant really trade in USD/Euro and peg your currency against it when it is prone to sanctions from the same country that currency you end up using.

Moving to Yuan and eventually Rouble would be good to reduce the dollar risk to their economy.

Whether such move affects USD globally or not its really of secondary nature.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Dec 2014 09:43

The trickle intends to become a flood before spring. The only winning option for the "west" is if there is a cascade and things topple over soon. Otherwise, the likes of poodlistan, germania, italy and grease will sink along with several others.

I havent looked it up all, but isolation phase has been quite successful by all measures. "Capacity building" in ukraine is going on faster than ever. Things go to poland, but may show up on vacation in ukraine later. If any sort of run on a market sector occurs, I predict opportunistic hot spots in winter. See changes in Belarus, kazakhastan behavior in sync with rest of th events.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 19 Dec 2014 10:15

sudarshan wrote:I googled, and found that Audi, GM, and Jaguar are halting sales in Russia. Jaguar=Tata, right? Not making any point, just curious - purely business decision on the part of Jaguar, or are they susceptible to US pressure?

Very much susceptible to the pressures of chamchas of US. US says then it gets repeated by international financiers then by funds that source international finance then finally the Tatas of the world have to succumb. I would not hold it against the Tatas. Business community cannot rationally be expected to be irrational about their businesses. The fault lies elsewhere.

sudarshan wrote:
Ramu wrote:The current climate is targetted bullying against Putin mainly due to his pro-Russian policies.
This has a very high relevance to India. Remember Modi was targetted in the same way if not more until few months ago.
Lets assume Russian economy goes down the dogs in 2-3 years after these targetted sanctions and other means. The same west may/can start the same script against India before next elections to bring a loonie into power.
This episode is something we need to watch very closely and may be learn some tricks from Putin bhai. Out of all BRICS countries, only china is relatively immune to western bullying.
They are targeting Russia with a concerted attack on one single commodity - oil. Reports say their economy is dependent on oil export to the tune of 50%. Is there any such single commodity that can be targeted to bring India down? The only thing I can think of is to raise oil prices sky-high - and that would be devastating to a lot of economies. India has been under western sanctions before, the 1998 explosions were a major red-line that was crossed. Every country that sanctioned India then, has realized the futility of sanctions against India. Are they going to go back to that road?

Russia has a big dependence on raw material export. How much refining capacity do they have, and if they don't have much, then what exactly prevented them from developing it all these years?

There truly is a lesson for all nationalists all across the world. But I guess things are still not so difficult as the western MSM is making it out to be. US will be in great trouble esp. in mid east (which has implications for Manhattan), if this thing continues because Araps of all hues are much more vulnerable than the Russians and only unthreatened oil out there for the west is the Arap oil (also for us!?).

Araps extracts oil at probably 10 USD a barrel. Russian oil probably at 30. US shale at probably 50-80 (sensible extractions).

The budget breakevens for Russia are higher than that for Araps. But then the Araps have only oil so whatever the price they have to sell unless they plan on collective suicide in Mecca. At best they will send out more Jihadis to register their presence.

Russians have oil+weapons so whatever the price (after some deft financial management) they too will keep selling but this time there is much more than just jihadis that is available with the Russians to register their presence.

OTOH in US, let us just see how much more they can go on with the sunk oil heads and shale fracking (all financed with massive junk bond financing). Last few years have been good for the average Yankee Doodle Dandy.

We Indians already buy gas at quite high prices so we only have to gain if the gas prices take a hit because of Oil (though for our specific case it looks a bit difficult). This is only the icing the cake is the current and the currently whispered 40 mark for Oil (stop being laalchi

).

Russians losing some money on Oil is not such a big deal for another reason too. Because a lot of oil is getting used in countries that are going to remain wary of west forever. Or at best these countries will haggle with the west like a mean-kamean, for every item on the agenda. Moreover with Central Asia, Russia and Iran in one corner of the rink and South America always wary of the western hegemony, there really is only the Arap oil in the ground that is there for all of the world to share till it gets finished off for good. All in all some tough times but good for everybody in the longer run.

Probably Russians are betting that the sanctions would hurt, but that the sanctions would hurt their opponents even more. From a longer term perspective China and India could gain a lot by coordinating with Russians. Whether India or West likes it or not the taps to the Russian, Iranian, Central Asian fossil fuels can be turned full on or full off, any day. South Americans don't need to feel exposed with the new found strength of the Chinese. That leaves only Arap oil and Amerikan shale on the free supply list and both these have a mutually destructive cost structures and both these need to be emptied out the fastest for the world to return to its normal.

If in the meantime India can get a few good oil+weapons deals and be listened to then it definitely makes sense not to worry too much for the Russians. Russians are one tough people. They can take this. Whoever said nationalism is easy.

Indian and Russian attitude towards each other should be to just allow the other enough room to prevent the other's fall, but growth will have to remain separate. Except when some serious deal is struck for the SCO entry and there, the chinese are the hegemons (the wanna be amerikans).

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Dec 2014 10:22

From Yesterdays President Press Conference

http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/23406

First the most important thing: the economic performance. In the first 10 months of this year, the gross domestic product grew by 0.7 percent, and the final figure may be around 0.6 percent. My colleagues and I met yesterday to finalise the figures. The trade surplus grew by $13.3 billion to reach $148.4 billion.

Industrial production picked up some speed after last year’s lull. In the first 10 months of the year, it went up by 1.7 percent. Unemployment is also low: at times, it dropped to below 5 percent, and now it is around 5 percent, possibly 5.1 percent.

The agroindustrial complex is developing. I believe that by the end of the year growth there will amount to 3.3 percent. As you may know, this year we had a record crop of 104 million tonnes.

Despite the turbulent situation on the financial market, the federal budget this year will show a surprlus. In other words, revenue will exceed expenses by 1.2 trillion rubles [over $20 billion], which is about 1.9 percent of the GDP. The Finance Ministry is still working on the final calculations, but the surplus is definite.

The main achievement of the year in the social sphere is of course the positive demographics.

Natural population growth in the first 10 months of the year was 37,100 people. The death rate is going down in this country, while the birth rate is increasing. This is a very good trend and we must make every effort to maintain it. As promised, we continued adjusting the maternity capital. In 2014 it amounted to 429,408.5 rubles.

We have met and exceeded the targets set for this year for salary rates for ten workforce categories. I am sure you know what I am talking about. First of all, these are teachers at schools and institutions providing supplementary education, counsellors, university faculty members, medical doctors, paramedics and nurses, and employees of cultural institutions. In 2014, we adjusted pensions to inflation twice: by 6.5 percent on February 1 and by an additional 1.7 percent on April 1.

We gave significant attention this year to enhancing the combat capability and efficiency of the Armed Forces. I will not go into detail here. I would only like to mention the social sphere. In 2014, 11,700 Defence Ministry servicemen received permanent housing and 15,300 received service housing. This is 100 percent of the year’s target figures.

These are the numbers I wanted to begin with. Now a few words regarding the current situation. I believe we all know that the main issue of concern to this country’s citizens is the state of the economy, the national currency and how all this could influence developments in the social sphere. I will try to briefly describe this situation and say how I expect it to develop. Basically, that is where we could end this news conference. (Laughter) However, if you have any further questions I will try to answer them.

The current situation was obviously provoked primarily by external factors. However, we proceed from the view that we have failed to achieve many of the things that were planned and that needed to be done to diversify the economy over the past 20 years. This was not easy, if at all possible, given the foreign economic situation, which was favourable in the sense that businesses were investing into areas that guaranteed maximum and fast profits. This mechanism is not easy to change.

Now, as you may know, the situation has changed under the influence of certain foreign economic factors, primarily the price of energy resources, of oil and consequently of gas as well. I believe the Government and the Central Bank are taking appropriate measures in this situation. We could question the timeliness or the quality of the measures taken by the Government and the Central Bank, but generally, they are acting adequately and moving in the right direction.

I hope that yesterday’s and today’s drop in the foreign currency exchange rate and growth of our national currency, the ruble, will continue. Is this possible? It is. Could oil prices continue falling and would this influence our national currency and consequently all the other economic indexes, including inflation? Yes, this is possible.

What do we intend to do about this? We intend to use the measures we applied, and rather successfully, back in 2008. In this case, we will need to focus on assistance to those people who really need it and on retaining – this is something I would like to highlight – retaining all our social targets and plans. This primarily concerns pensions and public sector salaries, and so forth.

Clearly, we would have to adjust our plans in case of any unfavourable developments. We would certainly be forced to make some cuts. However, it is equally certain – and I would like to stress this – that there will be what experts call a positive rebound. Further growth and a resolution of this situation are inevitable for at least two reasons. One is that the global economy will continue to grow, the rates may be lower, but the positive trend is sure to continue. The economy will grow, and our economy will come out of this situation.

How long will this take? In a worst-case scenario, I believe it would take a couple of years. I repeat: after that, growth is inevitable, due to a changing foreign economic situation among other things. A growing world economy will require additional energy resources. However, by that time I have no doubt that we will be able to do a great deal to diversify our economy, because life itself will force us to do it. There is no other way we could function.

Therefore, overall, I repeat, we will undoubtedly comply with all our social commitments using the existing reserves. Fortunately, this year they have even grown.

I would like to remind you that Central Bank reserves amount to $419 billion. The Central Bank does not intend to ‘burn’ them all senselessly, which is right. The Government reserve, the National Wealth Fund, the Reserve Fund have grown this year by about 2.4-2.5 trillion rubles to a total 8.4 trillion rubles. With these reserves I am certain we can work calmly to resolve our main social issues and to diversify the economy; and I will repeat that inevitably the situation will return to normal.

I would like to end my introductory remarks here. As I have said, we could end the whole news conference here, but if you do have any questions, I am ready to answer them.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 19 Dec 2014 10:32

Putin alongwith his Oligarch friends undermined Russian manufacturing and cosied up to the West. US being the sole God-father wanted more sacrifices from his potential minion (aka Ukraine territory) and thus the fight erupted. Putin is better than Yeltsin but not really a nation builder. Putin is just a ruthless wheeler dealer, nations are not built only by manipulations.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2014 10:38

I was watching the respective performances of Putin and Obama yesterday. SD spokesperson said Obama hasn't signed on the next round of sanctions. When asked for clarifications.

Obama looked like a pile of ash and was shaken. He sounded unsure and nervous.

Putin on other hand was a picture of composure and extended his press conference to 3 hours. He also managed to make naughty faces at folks asking tough questions.

Most likely Putin will tide through this crises, since this is just a liquidity crisis blown up by the stock exchanges and free floating currency and nothing about fundamentals, but when the crises is over Obama-led USA will be the one that will be struck hardest. For USA dollar would have ceased to be the reserve currency that it is.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Dec 2014 10:43

Appearances are not worth reading these days. Both Obama and Putin are aging faster than normal. But that is not worth much. Re. middle-east/OPEC/venezuela -- two birds with one stone. You can sometimes strart a train, but not prevent a wreck. It is a fast moving situation.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2014 10:48

Ok, Russia is doomed then.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Dec 2014 11:11

^^^ sarcasm noted. Do note that at the beginning of the events Belarus asked for more Su-27s. Now, it wants trade in dollars. Kazakh situation is not much different than Eukraine. It is no laughing matter. Neither syria, nor libeeya, or even Islaamik state rise were reported in any seriousness. Events are what they are, and they are clearly not worth taking lightly. If the bottom 10% of the population/retirees/weak sections suffer due to this, it will still cause lasting damage. News reports about luxury goods apart, the practical impact has not been reported or read in any seriousness.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2014 11:24

Russia has little foreign debt.

Has a very strong export, albeit commodity led.

High trade surplus.

so it has strong fundamentals. But it is in a liquidity crisis led by certain factors which involve oil price collapse and fully floating currency.

It is not as if these are impediments that cannot be overcome, next door China would be only delighted to provide the fillup to the liquidity crisis but at what cost. Or else work around the SWIFT ban and other issues is going to take 6 months. and economic revival is going to take an year after that.

The Russian govt kept postponing these reforms may be under pressure from various lobbies. But now they have fait accompli.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Dec 2014 12:10

Russian debt is, I hazard a guess, around $700B. Not small, not insurmountable. The problem is trade partners. The problem is import of food. The problem is raw material export customers. At oil being under 60, there will be a gaping deficit. Clearly a lot of modernization plans go away. Then technology from europe, where heavy integration had taken place, is nearly shut. How self-sufficient is russia?

I wouldnt call this a high trade surplus. And this was when europe was still buying. And oil still had acceptable prices. Next six months may be a different story. Oil alone can not make for stroing fundamentals.

Winter may be ok, but oil/gas are not big weapons in the summer especially when europe hgas been tanking reserves.

There wont be capital controls, that would be admitting defeat and calling for a run on the banks.

There are already side effects too. Will it still be possible to buy an IL-76 from russia and have israel modify it as an AWACS for example? Could you still integrate Derby/python/xyz with 29k, or Rxx with M2000? How do you get heavy stuff to/from russia.

There is precedent of turkey thumbing its nose at russia AND china re. varyag. You have to go via europe/suez for others. Japan isnt super friendly due to sakhalin. Russia sits relatively isolated, unable to bother anyone else except perhaps nordics.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2014 12:29

Saudi reserves are about $700 billion and have a restive population. Let's see who falls first.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Dec 2014 12:34

^^ Two birds with however many stones, I guess. There is no real love for SA. If it fell bakistanis might be in a bit of doodoo, though. There will be repercussions in london and manhattan too. Effects are already showing. Who blinks first?

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2014 12:42

Russian govt debt is very low, them sanctioned pvt companies have for some reason taken on a lot of debt. Now that they are sanctioned anyway, why should they pay back ehh ? They cannot take any new debts as is. Jokes apart, most likely they will pay minimum due this year which may come to $100 billion for entire 2015.

By next year you shall see the shades of the new alternate banking system come to fruition. If that is pulled off, then 2015 will be a neutral year and 2016 will be net positive.

Butt.. our yankee doodle doo friends will not allow for such stability or wait for it to happen, being go-getters and pro-active game changers and all that. In 2015, we may see a run on banks and stock market crash of all BRICS economies so that nobody is in a shape to participate in new Russian system.

this will either mean a total revamp of global economy and countries leaving USA system in droves or USA system will be successful beyond belief and everyone will come into US camp obediently. And will wait for the day color revolution hits them. Or wait for eventual genocide like Banu Qurayza.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Dec 2014 13:45

^^^ Yes, this is one plausible interpretation of the current situation and sane future possibilities. But events bear watching for more tactical brilliance from one psuedo dictator or another.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Dec 2014 14:20

habal wrote:Saudi reserves are about $700 billion and have a restive population. Let's see who falls first.

The saudis have a very considerable revenue from non oil investments, just like all gelf countries, who have been and are derisking from oil and have already made soverign fund deployments.

They are also the key player who can swing the market either way without any help from others.

They seem have the tactical and strategic aspects of this battle covered and pretty much under their control as with the entry and exit timing. Only the political backlash may come back to bite them in unmentionable places.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 19 Dec 2014 14:49

Russia needs to sanctin luxury item imports like:-

1. Luxury cars like BMWs, Mercs, Volvos, Lexus.

2. Wines, Cigars, luxury clothes from EU & NATO nations

3. Ban ownership of foreign property especially in UK