Implications for Russia
- Mr. Putin was always perceived to be a cunning strategist but this outright unprovoked *hot* war seems like was not well thought through in terms of its military/political objectives and the consequent economic war that the west has unleashed on Russia with its full impact expected to devastate the Russian economy and its people in the coming weeks. In essence Mr. Putin and his Generals seem to have displayed a Paki trait i.e. tactically brilliant, strategically stupid
- The west will not rest till Mr. Putin's regime ends - one way or another, a western orchestrated coup, popular uprising or a loss in the upcoming 2024 elections will most likely end Putin's regime
- The west would probably attempt to strip Russia of its veto and declare Putin a war criminal and prosecute him in absentia a la Milosevic. Unclear on what the U.N. Charter dictates when it comes to these types of attempts
- It is highly unlikely Mr. Putin can/will extract any concessions from the west even if he takes a graceful off ramp out of this war. If anything if/once Russia and Ukraine sign a new peace agreement one can expect the sanctions regime to continue that will continue to strangle Russia and turn it and its people to face the same fate as Iraq/Iran
- If the west continues its full economic blockade of Russia and pushes Mr. Putin to a corner - unlike Saddam Hussein, Milosevic, Assad or the Iranian regime - Russia/Putin may do the unthinkable i.e. resort to use of nuclear weapons. I really worry that the career deep staters in the U.S. and EU are salivating at the thought of complete Russian humiliation and surrender of Putin/Russia - and may end up triggering a full fledged hot war that is sure to lead down a slippery slope. Sanctioning the Russian Central bank and denying access to its sovereign assets, interdicting Russia bound ships, closing pretty much of all of European airspace to Russian airlines are extreme, last resort steps and probably as legal or as justified as Mr. Putin's ill advised invasion into Ukraine. In other words if Mr. Putin has nothing more to lose and is convinced that he is going down, cant be sure he will go down quietly
- The Chinese will be a big beneficiary of this ill thought out mis-adventure by Putin. They will continue to stand up an alternative to SWIFT, position Yuan as the alternative reserve currency and court their client states, puppet leaders around the world to trade on their system, in their currency. In the long run the U.S. $s power will decline as more and more nations will move their sovereign assets, gold etc out of EU and U.S. custody
- EU will unite militarily and will invest heavily in MIC, which actually is a good thing for U.S. tax payers and countries that want to diversify their military purchases
- The U.S. MIC will be another early/big beneficiary as the initial EU investment will surely go to Boeing, Lockheed, Raytheon etc
- India can only count on U.S., EU support in "fair weather" and in the U.N and other multi-lateral "chai-biscuit" forums. When the rubber meets the road in its border conflicts and economic tug of war against China, India will be on its own. It is imperative for India to accelerate its infrastructure build out, unleash/encourage the private sector investment in MIC and provide tax sops for foreign entities that manufacture locally with guaranteed ToT in critical areas. India needs to model itself along the lines of Japan with one exception, build up tremendous economic, military might but also increase its reliance on more advanced conventional/nuclear missile systems both in terms of quantity and quality. Perhaps raising another mountain corps to deter China is worth debating as well as increasing IAFs squadron strength to sustain a 2 front defensive posture
- Of immediate concern to India is to minimize the impact on its armed forces due to potential disruption of supply of spares and other technology from Russia that can impede India from keeping its armed forces in fighting shape
- In the medium to long term - India needs to single mindedly pursue R & D, domestic realization of strategic technologies where it lacks the know how - military jet engines, any critical components that it is still reliant on imports for its missile, space program, semiconductors etc
- It also needs to redouble efforts on securing mineral and ores critical for strategic segments from Africa, South America etc including lithium, palladium etc; EV, solar batteries, semiconductor manufacturing
