Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 00:04

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 881597.cms

"I have told President Hollande that India wants the jets as soon as possible," PM Modi said.

According to the joint statement, "The two leaders agreed to conclude an Inter-Governmental Agreement for supply of the aircraft on terms that would be better than conveyed by Dassault Aviation as part of a separate process underway; the delivery would be in time-frame that would be compatible with the operational requirement of IAF; and that the aircraft and associated systems and and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration as had been tested and approved by Indian Air Force, and with a longer maintenance responsibility by France."

"I asked the President to supply us with 36 Rafale jet fighter planes, the ready-to-fly models," the Prime Minister said at a joint news conference.

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday announced that India has requested France to give 36 Rafale fighter jets in 'fly-away condition' as quickly as possible.

"I'm grateful to France for their support for India's permanent membership of UN Security Council," PM Modi said.

India is ordering the 36 off-the shelf Rafale fighters to speed up the purchase and immediately give the air force two squardons of the jets that it desperately needs to upgrade its ageing fleet, sources said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 881094.cms

Well, this is like all the additional Su-30 orders before the main tranche itself.

I wish the IAF behaves the same with the LCA with advance orders ...err no, that has to go through some more rounds of trials before IAF ponders on the proposal.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 00:09

NRao wrote: Nope.

This is a purchase to bail out Dassault.

"Strategic"

Don't mis-underestimate Gujju bhai

1.

President Francois Hollande, reading out the joint statement, said France will invest 2 billion euros in India.

France will also help India to develop smart cities and a high speed rail line between Delhi and Chandigarh.

2.

"I'm grateful to France for their support for India's permanent membership of UN Security Council," PM Modi said.

3.

France informs India of decision to implement a scheme for expedited 48 hours visa issuance for Indian tourists.

4.

The two countries also signed an agreement on nuclear plant in Jaitapur.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 11 Apr 2015 00:14

Karan M wrote:
"I'm grateful to France for their support for India's permanent membership of UN Security Council," PM Modi said.

France backs India’s stand on climate in pre-2020 period.

With Russians becoming paki lovers, my Chankian mind thinks India is in Bania mode trying to ensure France Veto Power when push comes to shove ( a la 1998 situation).
Any help with SSN/SSBN will be a bonus.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Apr 2015 00:18

http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/country ... 69828.html
Check this french news report

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Apr 2015 00:19

I predict another follow up order basing it on the "quick" delivery of french made fighters to replenish the squadrons. Perhaps another 30 odd for a total of 60-70. This would be it unless there is some major carrot offered by the french in TOT and reduction in the overall cost of the deal.

How many jets can france afford to sell out of its own squadrons? I know some to Egypt are going and the fastest way to sell these jets to the IAF may well involve some transfers from the french themselves.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 11 Apr 2015 00:29

Is IAF going to get F3R std Rafales? Dassualt doesn't have any Indian captive offices. Would be nice if some thing gets set up here as part of 'Make in India' effort. They could help IAF improve and customize the product gradually with Indian engineers. Sigh...one can always dream

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 11 Apr 2015 01:14

60 fighters is half the MRCA order! Doing that without offsets is just criminal imo, no matter our force numbers.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Apr 2015 01:26

Unbelievable! Lost my entire post %*%&*%&*! Too many jingos online I guess.

Point was - I don't see this as a bad idea at all **-

1) Saves us a good $ 15 billion
2) Paves the way for more LCA orders in line with make in India
3) Gives the IAF more combat strength
4) Uptick for Fra-India Relations after the downturn in the UPA regime also prevents further losses here
5) Probably saves domestic political bomb - can you imagine the ruckus for a $ 25 billion purchase, probly would mean end of endeeyay

All in all, nice move by Modi. Offsets are hardly an issue here especially if we measure the gains vs. the $ 15 billion bill. Plus, the LCA will create same or more numbers of jobs. Also, TOT was just going to be more screwdrivergiri as BRFites had earlier discussed.

Now to crack the whip - expecting an additional order of 80+ LCA mk1s around FOC - IAF and HAL better get their act together. And some off the shelf Pakfa circa 2018-20.

** Intended to add this (since it was lost in my original post) - the present deal is a good idea ONLY if the LCA receives heaps more orders, else its utility is very questionable imvho.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 11 Apr 2015 01:29

brar_w wrote:I predict another follow up order basing it on the "quick" delivery of french made fighters to replenish the squadrons. Perhaps another 30 odd for a total of 60-70. This would be it unless there is some major carrot offered by the french in TOT and reduction in the overall cost of the deal.

Direct deals still have to face the basic obstacle - cost negotiation, which bogged down not just the MMRCA deal but also the Mirage upgrade. There's a lot of media coverage of the PM's visit to France so there's been a deliberate effort to suggest the tour has resulted in a 'breakthrough' but personally I'd wait and see how this pans out before speculating about follow-on orders.

How many jets can france afford to sell out of its own squadrons? I know some to Egypt are going and the fastest way to sell these jets to the IAF may well involve some transfers from the french themselves.

We can't operate any of them. Any aircraft will first need to be customized with an domestic IFF & data-link, which will take a fair bit of time. Its be less of a hassle to take possession of new build aircraft.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Apr 2015 01:34

French sources such as Le Monde and Figaro are showing this as frontpage news as in India - tagged @ 4 billion euros. Hmm, from my poor understanding of French, Le Monde puts the figure @ 110 million Euros per bird sans weapons etc... Expect bill to climb up to a good $ 5.5 billion. Still, not unexpected.

Le premier, très attendu, concerne la commande de 36 avions de chasse Rafale, fabriqués par Dassault en France. M. Modi a ajouté que les termes et conditions du contrat n'étaient pas finalisés, « les termes et conditions doivent être négociés ». Le contrat pourrait s'élever à près de 4 milliards d'euros, le prix d'un Rafale à l'export étant estimé à 110 millions d'euros sans les armements.

En savoir plus sur http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/ ... Kr7XKfu.99

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 11 Apr 2015 01:35

Cain Marko wrote:Unbelievable! Lost my entire post %*%&*%&*! Too many jingos online I guess.

Point was - I don't see this as a bad idea at all -

1) Saves us from a good $ 15 billion
2) Paves the way for more LCA orders in line with make in India
3) Gives the IAF more combat strength
4) Uptick for Fra-India Relations after the downturn in the UPA regime also prevents further losses here
5) Probably saves domestic political bomb - can you imagine the ruckus for a $ 25 billion purchase, probly would mean end of endeeyay

- The aircraft is still what it is. Even off-the-shelf, its a 4.5G aircraft at 5G prices.
- Screws up our logistics. All new infrastructure to support a 36 strong fleet.
- While 36 Rafales is better than 126 Rafales, how does this deal help secure more Tejas orders?
- The French have gotten billions in Indian contracts (Scorpene, Mirage upgrade, MICA, Mistral and now Airbus & Areva). What exactly do they have to complain about?

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 11 Apr 2015 01:36

Cain Marko wrote:French sources such as La Monde and Figaro are showing this as frontpage news as in India - tagged @ 4 billion euros.

I imagine Hollande welcomes the 'breakthrough' as well.

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 11 Apr 2015 01:44

Well now time to force IAF to retire the Mig-21's and order 100 Tejas.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Apr 2015 01:50

Viv S wrote: The aircraft is still what it is. Even off-the-shelf, its a 4.5G aircraft at 5G prices.

I understand your feelings for the F-35

, but that is altogether another story and prices, hardly guaranteed. Folks were saying that even the MKI now costs $ 100 mil. IIRC, the Shornet deal for Oz 10 years ago was hardly any different from current set up. The recent one for 24 birds was about estimated @ $ 3.7 bill including weapons et al. Doubt any 5Gen bird is going to come in at this price. Nothing that we have bought from the US so far suggests a cheap price.

- Screws up our logistics. All new infrastructure to support a 36 strong fleet.

Sure, but the IAF was the one pining for Rafales. Still better than the situation 15-20 years ago where we had to manage 9-10 types.
-

While 36 Rafales is better than 126 Rafales, how does this deal help secure more Tejas orders?

It leaves $s, time and resources for HAL to concentrate on the LCA. Further, even though it is speculation on my part, I am counting on Modi and Parrikar who seem bent upon make in India to get the LCA going.

- The French have gotten billions in Indian contracts (Scorpene, Mirage upgrade, MICA, Mistral and now Airbus & Areva). What exactly do they have to complain about?

It is not as though we didn't get anything in return. Fact is they did stand by us despite pressure from US and Poodle during POKII and will do the same for the agreement on climate and UNSC seat. Things that we consider important. Such relations take time to cultivate and can be offputting to many especially after the promises made to the NDA for the M2K.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Apr 2015 02:19

I understand your feelings for the F-35 , but that is altogether another story and prices, hardly guaranteed. Folks were saying that even the MKI now costs $ 100 mil. IIRC, the Shornet deal for Oz 10 years ago was hardly any different from current set up. The recent one for 24 birds was about estimated @ $ 3.7 bill including weapons et al. Doubt any 5Gen bird is going to come in at this price. Nothing that we have bought from the US so far suggests a cheap price.

Are there any more details as to what was the price for the fighters (Egypt), what the weapons package was and what were the other components (how many simulators, spare engines, logistics and training if any)?

I'm waiting to see when this is finally inked (which it should soon) and how much time Dassault take for first batch delivery. I suspect it will be quite quick.

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 11 Apr 2015 02:42

http://www.wsj.com/articles/egypt-to-bu ... 1423770493

24 Rafale and a FREMM frigate for 5.7 billion. Even assume 1-1.2 billion for FREMM thats pretty expensive buy.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 11 Apr 2015 02:44

Cain Marko wrote:I understand your feelings for the F-35 , but that is altogether another story and prices, hardly guaranteed. Folks were saying that even the MKI now costs $ 100 mil. IIRC, the Shornet deal for Oz 10 years ago was hardly any different from current set up. The recent one for 24 birds was about estimated @ $ 3.7 bill including weapons et al. Doubt any 5Gen bird is going to come in at this price. Nothing that we have bought from the US so far suggests a cheap price.

What have we bought from France so far that suggests a cheap price? (And unlike the Americans, the French don't have advantage of scale.) The F-35 flyaway cost is already within 25% of the Rafale ($105M vs $85M) and by 2018, it'll match it.

And yes I do have strong feelings about the F-35; its far more capable than the Rafale and far more reliable than the PAK FA. The downside was the lack of ToT (for whatever that's worth). Apparently we've decided to dump that factor when it comes to the Rafale, so that's not a downside anymore. Its a VLO aircraft, it can go where the Rafale can't and I bet that'll worry the Chinese.

Overall, same story as the Tejas; both were (over)ambitious projects, both were late, both overshot budgets, both (narrowly) missed required performance specs, but in the end both aircraft deliver unmatched value-for-money in their respective segments.

(The Rafale can't match the SH's RAAF cost either. Not given the cost of French munitions. It was determined to significantly costlier than the SH & Gripen E in Brazil.)

Sure, but the IAF was the one pining for Rafales. Still better than the situation 15-20 years ago where we had to manage 9-10 types.

'Better than before' still doesn't equal 'good' let alone 'ideal'. The IAF may have a myopic view but the MoD isn't bound by it.

It leaves $s, time and resources for HAL to concentrate on the LCA. Further, even though it is speculation on my part, I am counting on Modi and Parrikar who seem bent upon make in India to get the LCA going.

Carrying that logic further, cancelling the order for 36 Rafales will give an even bigger impetus to the Tejas program.

It is not as though we didn't get anything in return. Fact is they did stand by us despite pressure from US and Poodle during POKII and will do the same for the agreement on climate and UNSC seat. Things that we consider important. Such relations take time to cultivate and can be offputting to many especially after the promises made to the NDA for the M2K.

The embargo was 17 years ago. And France has been lobbying in the interim for the EU to scrap sanctions on China. We've already got plenty of support on climate and UNSC. Fact is, we've given them more than enough contracts, for them not to crib about this one.

(If we do have to sign a deal, we're better off ordering follow-on Scorpenes, aside from MRTTs. Affirms to 'Make-in-India' and infrastructure is already up and running.)

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 11 Apr 2015 02:57

“The delivery would be in time-frame that would be compatible with the operational requirement of IAF and the aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration as had been tested and approved by Indian Air Force and with a longer maintenance responsibility by France,” it added.

What was the configuration that IAF tested?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 11 Apr 2015 03:16

Katrina finally comes home!

But this is tragically hilarious. Had the MoD taken up Dassault's offer back in the early 2000s to transfer the entire Mirage 2000 line to India, the IAF would not be caught with its pants down as it is now. I don't know what was going through the minds of the individual (or individuals) who made the monumental blunder of changing this into a multi aircraft MMRCA tender. The MoD has never served the needs of the services, they only satisfy the archaic rules of babudom. The MoD also had the audacity to balk at the cost when Qatar was offering to sell her Mirage 2000-5s to us back in the mid 2000s. But the MoD now has no problem spending €7.2+ billion for 36 Rafales. To call this an irony is an understatement. But I guess it is easy to judge in hindsight.

What we should now do - not that we will, because buying phoren maal is our hallmark - is build an overhaul capability for Katrina in the country, similar to what we do for the Rambha right now. We should never send Katrina back to France to overhaul her, when we can do that in house. I do hope that the 36 aircraft that are coming, are all two-seaters. Infinitely more valuable up in the air. As a Rambha pilot once remarked....two pairs of eyeballs and two brains are way better than one.

By the way...just a thing about numbers. Even if 126 aircraft arrive tomorrow in India, there is NO WAY the situation is going to improve right away. To fly any aircraft - transport, fighter, rotary, civilian, whatever - one has to be qualified on the aircraft. Qualifications take time and involve stages of syllabuses. Only when one completes all the syllabuses are they fully qualified on the aircraft. See the Times Now video by Maroof Raza on the Rambha and you will see why. This being a brand new aircraft, the IAF has to first develop the syllabus and then train pilots so they can serve as instructors who will actually train the pilots who will fly her on a regular basis. Time is a luxury the IAF does not have. You cannot take a Bison pilot and put him in a Rafale and tell him to go fight. It does not work that way. He will never be able to fully exploit her capabilities. That is like asking someone to drive a six speed manual Lamborghini Murciélago through the Nurburgring, when all they know to do is to drive their automatic Hyundai Sonata back and forth from work.

A lot are to blame for this mess...but the MoD has to take the greatest share of the blame. France has just won the lottery.

Later Addition: This is not the only defence deal that the MoD has scuttled in this spectacularly disastrous manner.

- Talwar Class frigates (during negotiations for the first three...we were offered six frigates for the price of three. Guess what our MoD said!) is a classic example among many. This is what Bofors did to the MoD. We became impotent because of Bofors. Bofors marred the psyche of the MoD.

We SRDEs are like this onlee.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 11 Apr 2015 03:20

Vipul wrote:What was the configuration that IAF tested?

I believe it was the F2 variant, as the F3 variant was still on the drawing board in 2007. Someone please point out if I am wrong.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 11 Apr 2015 03:22

Bheeshma wrote:http://www.wsj.com/articles/egypt-to-bu ... 1423770493

24 Rafale and a FREMM frigate for 5.7 billion. Even assume 1-1.2 billion for FREMM thats pretty expensive buy.

Au contraire, that's cheap. The Egyptians will never repay.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 Apr 2015 03:49

The French indeed have won the lotto. Ugh, what a procurement mess. This is going to be a logistical nightmare.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Apr 2015 04:58

After discussing all night you guys have reached 98 paise only and must be eagerly waiting for my 2 paise.

I am guessing that the original deal started slipping on timelines because I suspect India simply does not have the technological base to absorb what the French are supposed to give. I got this feeling after I read about the French having an automated line for composites while we still have our manual thing. There is a huge tech gap - so huge that if offsets are going to be fulfilled you can't simply "find" partners in India who are "already doing something similar" and can simply switch roles. You have to create from scratch.

The thing that was bothering me was the precipitous drop in aircraft strength that is coming very soon. An outright purchase was always going to be the only solution - I was afraid it would be MiG 29s. In my view PAKFA etc are nowhere near being in a position to fulfil the requirement. And an off the shelf purchase of Eurofighter or F 16. F/A 18 was never going to happen - again IMO

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 11 Apr 2015 05:01

pandyan wrote:how many legs does this cheetah have 6 or 8?

http://rafalenews.blogspot.ca/p/rafale- ... d-out.html

9 stations in total

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 Apr 2015 05:04

Looks like 108 Rafales manufactured by HAL is still the main idea. Not sure how giving them 36 jets is going to make negotiations easier for our side. There is blood in the water now.

Su-30+Rafale+Tejas is potent combo.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 11 Apr 2015 05:06

Although the Katrina deal is now beyond reversal (unless we were willing to pay penalties and lose face), we need to seriously get our hands on those 12 Mirage 2000-5s from Qatar. Another source is Greece which is dead broke and if we make a good offer on their Dash 5s (they have around 20 - 25 of them) the IAF can get some serious firepower on their hands relatively quick. Another likely (but distant) place is the UAE. They may not sell though because of their close proximity to TSP.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 11 Apr 2015 05:08

one of the more shameful days for us.

MOD and to a lesser extent IAF put us in this position

What a menagerie in the air force

only worse thing would be a scandal and the rest of plans cancelled and we stay at another small set

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 11 Apr 2015 05:35

Surya wrote:one of the more shameful days for us.

MOD and to a lesser extent IAF put us in this position

What a menagerie in the air force

only worse thing would be a scandal and the rest of plans cancelled and we stay at another small set

The scandal is just around the corner. Just wait for it.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 11 Apr 2015 05:36

............its hard to put feelings in words right now. Its like you are watching your own sex tape with your friends, feeling humiliated
, angry, horny and proud at the same time.

While we are are at it we should buy 36 of each F-16, F-18, Gripen and Typhoons to make up the remaining numbers.

Unity in diversity.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 11 Apr 2015 05:47

Ankar wrote:So there's a chance that this purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets is for SFC

That makes sense.

When the original MRCA requirement was first mooted during NDA1, the deal was to be for 7 squadrons of M2K. At that time, there were some reports in the press that out of these, 2 squadrons were to be configured for the air force leg of the triad, while the rest would be for 'normal' duties.

I think India had to buy these 36 Rafales at the minimum since there is no substitute for them. And I think that any more Rafales are unlikely to be purchased.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Apr 2015 05:49

RoyG wrote:Looks like 108 Rafales manufactured by HAL is still the main idea. Not sure how giving them 36 jets is going to make negotiations easier for our side.

My guess is that it buys time for offset partners to be found who are willing to build the necessary infrastructure to absorb technologies that we are simply unable to absorb right now. I suspect that Dassault's unwillingness to take responsibility for planes made by HAL may be more than a lover's tiff. it could mean that HAL simply does not have the technological infrastructure and manpower to walk side by side with Dassault and private offset companies are even less well equipped than HAL and need to build up from scratch - a process that could take 3-5 years after a deal is signed.

I think Rafale is the technological baby of a country that created Snecma, and partnered CFM 56 engines and the Airbus. That is a formidable. world beating technological base. You cannot jump out of Kiran and MiG 21 into that level without extraordinary effort and significant amounts of time. We probably don't even have the trained human material for some of those skills.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 11 Apr 2015 05:51

I think we should all relax and wait for more information. Shri Modi has consistently impressed me with the depth of his acumen. I don't think he's turned into a fool all of a sudden.

I personally favor an overall purchase of 63, if the price is low enough. I think that's still a possibility.

I think this stated interest in at least 36 is simply a courtesy to the French. It's signaling, "Yeah, we're definitely going to make a purchase of a certain amount. We're not just stringing you along and wasting your time." This is a reasonable thing to do, in my opinion. The French need to plan, too, after all, and France has helped India in the past.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Apr 2015 05:56

pandyan wrote:
isnt this what was supposed to be improved with the rafale deal...incorporate modern manufacturing practices? if we have to improve quality, tighten manufacturing controls to reduce variation, one would need automated machines. These machines may be capital intensive but can be used to improve LCA MK2 assembly line as well. so, not sure why there were anonymous sources claiming HAL wants to stick with authentic handmade composites. I wonder they were having chaibiskoot to discuss who will pay for buying these tools and setting up. and there were reports about france insisting only on french manufacturers where as HAL rightly wanted to pick among one of the global companies (and bidding to pick the lowest priced supplierwho knows a russian or chinese manufacturer might show up at the top).

Don't know the details - but my guess is that you cannot jump from 1970s and 80s to 2000 very quickly. Every pin, rivet and pipe in Rafale probably comes from a design and technological base that is 20-30 years ahead on India.

In the long term the Rafale deal will not make India "state of the art" but it will reduce the tech gap between India and the west from 30 years to maybe 10 years, just like MiGs reduced India's technological gap from 50 years to 30 years

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Apr 2015 05:58

I am not sure what the R&D is all about - this deal went sour the day the UPA allowed a multi-vendor process. Under the circumstances the only better outcome might have been a complete cancellation, and I am not sure if that would have been a better outcome for a variety of reasons.

I am just so glad that we won't be spending $ 25 billion for 126 Rafales - now that would have been wasteful!

Now the focus should be on bringing the Tejas online - Mk1 followed by Mk2. Around 2020 the Pakfa follows and by 2030 get the AMCA ready to replace the fulcrums and M2Ks.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Apr 2015 06:04

Cain Marko wrote: Now the focus should be on bringing the Tejas online - Mk1 followed by Mk2. Around 2020 the Pakfa follows and by 2030 get the AMCA ready to replace the fulcrums and M2Ks.

While I am an ardent MiG 21 fan and an admirer of Su 30 - Russian technology simply has not catapulted India into the western league in terms of serviceability and reliability. The Su 30s 60% availability rate does not compare well with the Mirage 2000's 90% availability. There is something in the west's design and material philosophy that we need to learn. I worry that PAKFA wil be no different from other Russian aircraft in terms of serviceability and reliability and mean time between overhaul.

Unfortunately Jaguar is very much 60s tech and only took us from the 1950s to the 1980s

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Apr 2015 06:09

250 aircraft of type A with 60% availability means 150 out of 250 aircraft available for operations
150 aircraft of type B with 90% availability means 135 out of 150 available for operations.

If the cost input for type A and type B aircraft are the same, the results too are about the same. You choice depends on what philosophy you follow to have about 140-150 aircraft available for war.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 11 Apr 2015 06:13

I agree with what Dr Shiv is saying, that Indian aeronautical industry is just not ready to absorb the Rafale tech right now.

We missed the important next step in capability-building, when we failed to buy the Mirage 2000 production line when it was offered to India before it was closed down.

Earlier, during the AJT negotiations, France had offered to transfer the entire production line of the Alpha Jet to India since they were planning to close it down. We went for the Hawk instead. I think that was another opportunity missed.

Now, the learning will have to be done on the LCA and the IJT. There is no other way.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Apr 2015 06:14

Viv S wrote:[What have we bought from France so far that suggests a cheap price? (And unlike the Americans, the French don't have advantage of scale.) The F-35 flyaway cost is already within 25% of the Rafale ($105M vs $85M) and by 2018, it'll match it.

And yes I do have strong feelings about the F-35; its far more capable than the Rafale and far more reliable than the PAK FA. The downside was the lack of ToT (for whatever that's worth). Apparently we've decided to dump that factor when it comes to the Rafale, so that's not a downside anymore. Its a VLO aircraft, it can go where the Rafale can't and I bet that'll worry the Chinese.

Viv, we can go round and round in circles about this forever. Point is, F-35 is not in discussion from all that we hear. More importantly, there are numerous arguments against it too. In terms of the MRCA contenders, I think this is pretty much the closest to the best deal we could have practically hoped for.

'Better than before' still doesn't equal 'good' let alone 'ideal'. The IAF may have a myopic view but the MoD isn't bound by it.

In an ideal world, yes. but alas we are constrained by a rather un-ideal type world. And I blame the MOD far more than the IAF for this circus. The less said about the MOD under the UPA, the better.

Carrying that logic further, cancelling the order for 36 Rafales will give an even bigger impetus to the Tejas program.

Absolutely! No argument here - but then again it is not an ideal world. I'll take 36 Rafales over 126 deliverable by God knows when and with an ungodly price and likely with very limited tech transfer to show for it.

The embargo was 17 years ago. And France has been lobbying in the interim for the EU to scrap sanctions on China. We've already got plenty of support on climate and UNSC. Fact is, we've given them more than enough contracts, for them not to crib about this one. (If we do have to sign a deal, we're better off ordering follow-on Scorpenes, aside from MRTTs. Affirms to 'Make-in-India' and infrastructure is already up and running.)

It is not a matter of contracts that they have been given, it is about a pretty well known quid pro quid deal that was to be in their favor since 1999 - the M2K order should have been theirs. Such things might not sit well with us now that we sit in a pretty position, but around the time of POK II, when we were hardly an economic powerhouse, their support was rather a lonely voice against almost the entire international community, and much appreciated.

Win-win all around.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 Apr 2015 06:18

Cain Marko wrote:I am not sure what the R&D is all about - this deal went sour the day the UPA allowed a multi-vendor process. Under the circumstances the only better outcome might have been a complete cancellation, and I am not sure if that would have been a better outcome for a variety of reasons.

I am just so glad that we won't be spending $ 25 billion for 126 Rafales - now that would have been wasteful!

Now the focus should be on bringing the Tejas online - Mk1 followed by Mk2. Around 2020 the Pakfa follows and by 2030 get the AMCA ready to replace the fulcrums and M2Ks.

108 are still be negotiated. We may just end up getting 108+36 =144.

One thing is clear, which you have rightly pointed out. We can't afford this kind of sh*t again. It is imperative that we build up our industrial capabilities and start growing some spine. Rope in the privates and get cracking.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Apr 2015 06:23

shiv wrote:
Cain Marko wrote: Now the focus should be on bringing the Tejas online - Mk1 followed by Mk2. Around 2020 the Pakfa follows and by 2030 get the AMCA ready to replace the fulcrums and M2Ks.
While I am an ardent MiG 21 fan and an admirer of Su 30 - Russian technology simply has not catapulted India into the western league in terms of serviceability and reliability. The Su 30s 60% availability rate does not compare well with the Mirage 2000's 90% availability. There is something in the west's design and material philosophy that we need to learn. I worry that PAKFA wil be no different from other Russian aircraft in terms of serviceability and reliability and mean time between overhaul.

Unfortunately Jaguar is very much 60s tech and only took us from the 1950s to the 1980s

There was a recent report which suggested that the M2K wasn't doing all that hot either, and the Russian birds might have been better recently. But in general yes, supply chain issues have been the nagging problem with Russian gear. However, I don't see the Pakfa being dropped, perhaps numbers can be reduced if we can get the AMCA online with reasonable capability and in time. The moment the PLAAF gets a sqd or two of J20s (or whatever it is that they have that looks stealthy), IAF will probably cry for something to counter it. Either the Pakfa or more Rafale.