Managing Chinese Threat

[ramana]

X-Post...

Its now turn of PRC to show inner Pakistaniyat (internal struggles) against India. They don't have non-state actors as their PLA as the biggest non-state actor.

[Prem]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-22592770
Premier Li Keqiang's visit: India and China in border row pledge

Visiting Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has said India and China must "improve mechanisms" to settle a long-running border dispute, pledging his commitment to "peace and tranquility".Premier Li was speaking during a joint address with his Indian counterpart, PM Manmohan Singh, in the capital, Delhi.Mr Singh said special representatives from the two countries would meet soon to discuss ways to end the row.The meeting comes after a recent flare-up in border tensions.Premier Li arrived in Delhi on Sunday in the first stop of his maiden foreign trip since taking office.The two neighbours are the world's two most populous countries.
During Monday's talks, the two sides discussed trade ties and other bilateral issues and signed eight agreements."We don't deny there are problems between the two sides," Premier Li said. "We need to improve border related mechanisms and make them more efficient," he added."Both Mr Singh and I believe there are far more interests than differences between our two sides. We need to confront issues with a broad mind, and tackle them in a mature way," he said.PM Singh said India and China had "agreed that our special representatives will meet soon to continue discussions seeking an early agreement on a framework for a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable boundary settlement"."Peace and tranquillity on our border has to be preserved," he said.
It was all smiles on Monday as the Indian prime minister welcomed his Chinese counterpart to Delhi and its swooning 46C ( (115F) heat.But tensions between the two Asian giants are likely to keep simmering. It goes back to China's devastating surprise attack along their Himalayan frontier in 1962.They still cannot agree where their border lies - with Delhi seeking the return of territory in the northwest, but China claiming an even larger slice from India's northeast.
It is still not clear why China risked torpedoing this week's visit with last month's incursion, but analysts say it may have decided it had to respond to a recent Indian military build-up in the area.Growing trade has helped bring the two closer together - despite other gripes, including India's shelter for the Dalai Lama, China's support for Pakistan, and water.ut with both countries in an economic slowdown, the room for the necessary compromises on the border issue is even more limited. So no one is expecting any breakthrough and more flare-ups are possible.
A decades-long border dispute flared up last month after India accused Chinese troops of crossing the countries' de facto frontier.The dispute over the territory in the Ladakh region has dogged the two countries since the 1950s.At an informal meeting on Sunday night, Mr Singh told Mr Li that a recent military standoff on the Himalaya border could affect relations between the two countries.Both sides, however, were keen to ensure that the border spat did not derail a general warming in relations between the neighbours and the two leader talked of "more shared interests than differences".China is already one of India's top trading partners and both countries have already agreed a new $100bn (£65bn) bilateral trade target for 2015.Premier Li said he had agreed to address India's concerns about the size of the trade deficit with China.On his arrival in Delhi, Premier Li said said his decision to choose India for his first foreign visit since taking office "indicates the great importance Beijing attaches to its relations" with Delhi.During his three-day visit in India, he is also expected to meet Indian President Pranab Mukherjee, Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi and leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha [the lower house of Indian parliament] Sushma Swaraj.He is also scheduled to address university students in Delhi and business leaders in Mumbai, India's financial capital, before travelling on to Pakistan, Switzerland and Germany.

[Prem]

Chinese Army Cyberunit Apparently Attacking U.S. Targets Again

http://readwrite.com/2013/05/20/chinese ... gets-again

Getting called out by the Obama administration wasn't enough of a deterrent for Unit 61398, the cyberattack unit of the People's Liberation Army of China, because apparently they're at it again, working to pilfer information from private company and public government data stores.The New York Times is reporting that Unit 61398 has resumed operations and is actively engaged in hacking into any U.S. systems that might hold information considered to be of use for the People's Republic of China.
Security firm Mandiant told the Times "that the Chinese hackers had stopped their attacks after they were exposed in February and removed their spying tools from the organizations they had infiltrated. But over the past two months, they have gradually begun attacking the same victims from new servers and have reinserted many of the tools that enable them to seek out data without detection."They are now operating at 60 percent to 70 percent of the level they were working at before, according to a study by Mandiant requested by The New York Times," the article reported.If accurate, then it's clear that the U.S. is going to have to step up its game when it comes to cybersecurity, particularly organizations that have data related to trade secrets or, more disturbingly, infrastructure plans - both targets of Chinese hackers.Even if this isn't the PLA, someone is hacking these systems, and it's time to stop treating cybersecurity like a game.

[ramana]

Jhujar, Posts about love fest between US and China are not germane to this thread. They can go to the US- PRC relationship thread. The reason is this thread is to see the Indian point of view.

[Prem Kumar]

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang addresses our nation directly through their official, Mount Road based media outlet:

A handshake across the Himalayas

[Prem Kumar]

"Thousand grains of sand" at work again:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 161546.cms

At this rate (along with the recent Pentagon warning of widespread Han Industrial/Military espionage), we may come to a point of serious backlash against anything Chinese - both people & products

If we are smart, we should capitalize and spread the "dont trust the Chinese" message in forums everywhere

But we also got to make sure that none of the $hit gets stuck to us. An anti-Chinese wave could easily morph into an anti-Asian wave, similar to the Paki problem becoming a South Asian problem

[eklavya]

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang addresses our nation directly through their official, Mount Road based media outlet:

A handshake across the Himalayas

In this article, the Chinese PM comes across as a reasonable fellow. But the facts belie the reasonable tone:
- 19km incursion into India
- claim over Arunachal Pradesh
- supply of plutonium breeding reactors to Pakistan
- supply of ballistic missiles to Pakistan
- industrial scale cyber hacking
- etc
- etc

Either this PM of theirs is a deception peddling con artist, or China itself is in two minds about India.

The "smart party" in China must realise that making an enemy out of India with actions like the above will cost China dear in the long-run: India will ally with Japan, the US, Vietnam, etc and work to isolate China.

The "stupid party" in China wants to show India that China is superior militarily, financially, etc. and thus trys out the type of stunt we witnessed at DBO.

It is up to the "smart party" in China to keep the "stupid party" under control, but on the weight of evidence, the "stupid party" does pretty much what it likes.

To safeguard India's interests, we must assume that the "stupid party" is running the show in China. There is no upside for India from giving the enlightened elements in the CPC-PLA the benefit of the doubt. It is like the elusive US search for moderates in the Iranian regime.

Our diplomatic, military and economic policies towards China must be based on the premise that China is run by boneheads who are itching to demonstrate what they mistakenly assume is their superior strength.

[SSridhar]

If we are smart, we should capitalize and spread the "dont trust the Chinese" message in forums everywhere

But we also got to make sure that none of the $hit gets stuck to us. An anti-Chinese wave could easily morph into an anti-Asian wave, similar to the Paki problem becoming a South Asian problem

Prem Kumar, I believe that the first step is to spread the good word about China among Indians in India. There are many powerful Indian elements supporting China and digging a grave for India within India itself. Newspapers like The Hindu, channels like NDTV, analysts like Srinath Raghavan, political parties like the Communists, certain sections of the Confederation of Indian Industries, universities like JNU, to name a few.

On the issue of South Asia, we did not highlight the Pakistani problem. Pakistan was the best friend of the 3½ Friends and a toast of the Western countries for decades and the Western press saw no evil there even when deep resentment grew among western establishments at various points of the chequered history of West-Pakistan bonhomie until everything turned after 9/11. The Paki problem began to be accepted and highlighted in Western press. Even then, the overpowering influence of several decades was strong enough not to single out the Paki problem as Paki problem but as a South Asian problem. That was the reason for the US to appoint Holbrooke as special rep for Af-Pak-Ind which was resisted by us.

The moral of the story is that whether we highlight or not, a certain trajectory will happen for other reasons, over which we may have not much control. If China problem morphs into an 'Asia-problem', then it should affect other powerful western allies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore as well.

[SSridhar]

Special representatives to ensure Depsang-type incidents do not recur - Sandeep Dikshit, The Hindu

India and China expressed a strong desire to resolve pending issues and take the relationship forward in new spheres such as civil nuclear energy during two rounds of discussions here on Sunday evening and Monday morning between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and visiting Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.

The interaction, taking place against the backdrop of a mini-security blanket around a portion of Lutyens’ Delhi to thwart attempts by Tibetan exiles to stage protests, attracted worldwide attention, coming as it did after a three-week face-to-face standoff between troops of the two Asian giants.

A joint statement, however, did not mention Tibet, a staple of joint communiqués China issues with every country. India had last done away with the inclusion of the T- word in 2010 and officials maintained there was no need to bring in Tibet when Beijing was aware of New Delhi’s stance about the region being an inalienable part of China. {Why even explain away the reason for not mentioning Tibet ? Let there remain an element of ambiguity or even reluctance to accept Tibet as part of China. We are the boneheads, not the Chinese} In restricted and delegation-level discussions totalling three hours, the two leaders decided to entrust the task of ensuring incidents like Depsang do not reoccur to the two Special Representatives (SRs), who have also been asked to speed up work on demarcating and delineating the border by trying to achieve closure on the second of the three-stage process of resolving the border question. “We also took stock of lessons learnt from the recent incident in the Depsang sector, when the existing mechanism proved its worth,” explained the Prime Minister in a media statement. {Actually, it did not prove its worth. The Indian PM is misleading India}

Mr. Li said both sides “believe we need to improve the border mechanisms that have been put into place and make them more efficient…and the two sides should continue to advance the negotiations on the boundary question and jointly maintain peace and tranquillity in the border area.”

India could not get its way with an upgraded joint mechanism on trans-border rivers to ease its concerns at construction activity on the Chinese portion of the Brahmaputra. But both sides signed a pact — among the eight — to increase the frequency of exchange of hydrological data.

[shyamd]

Thoughts on behaviour of the PRC PM.
A non-cryptic, effusive Chinese premier

Jayanth Jacob, Hindustan Times

When external affairs minister Salman Khurshid called on Li Keqiang on Monday, the Chinese PM started off with an old Chinese saying, “When you meet for the first time you are strangers, by the time you meet second time, you are friends, so we are friends.” Khurshid had met him for the first time on May 10.
Li, 57, is effusive and doesn’t fit the “very cryptic” description that most had about Chinese leaders, say diplomats.

Li used Sunday’s dinner hosted by the PM and Monday’s joint press-appearance to describe his trip to India 27 years ago as the head of the youth wing of his party. Indian hospitality and his visit to Taj Mahal, Indian varsities — all these figured in Li’s conversations. He also talked about Bollywood film 3 idiots, which he watched on his daughter’s advice.

Though China has a state-controlled media, the premier lost no time in making use of the Indian media opportunity. During ceremonial receptions at Rashtrapati Bhavan, there is a practice of All India Radio representative asking the dignitary about his “expectations.” Usually, it’s a 90-second answer. But Li spoke for seven minutes and even said when Manmohan Singh visits Beijing he would get similar, big media coverage.

He chose a vegetarian meal on Sunday, but he wasn’t keen for a repeat at the banquet lunch on Monday. The menu included tamatar aur dhaniya shorba soup, grilled fish, kadai prawn curry, nizami handi, kadai panner — an Indian affair.

An Indian official said Li never misses chances to strike a chord of familiarity. He told a bureaucrat who had led a team to China, “I have met you in Beijing”.

But will he write a new chapter in the bilateral ties. “Well, its too early too say,” says an official.

[ramana]

So as usual the Indian diplomats are going by 'atmospherics' and personalities when its very clear that PRC is an instituional system.

Be prepared to be deluded again.

PS: With the TOI/Ind Exp/HT and IBN/NDTV type of group think Congressi media what is this nonsense about state controlled Chinese media!

[SSridhar]

Li's Pak visit to deepen 'all-weather-ties' - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu

When the aircraft carrying Chinese Premier Li Keqiang enters Pakistani airspace on Wednesday after departing from Mumbai, it will receive an escort from six JF-17 Thunder jets — aircraft jointly designed by China and Pakistan, seen as a symbol of the close strategic relationship between the “all-weather” allies.

Mr. Li’s two-day visit, which follows his three days of engagements in India, will be aimed at deepening economic links between the two countries. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the visit will also provide an opportunity for both countries to assess how to take ties forward under new leadership. Mr. Li’s trip, which will mark the first high-level visit from China following the once-in-a-decade leadership transition that was completed in March, takes place only days after elections held in Pakistan. The Ministry said Mr. Li will meet with Prime Minister-elect Nawaz Sharif on Thursday. He will meet President Asif Ali Zardari on the first day of his visit.

Gwadar project

Some of the MoUs expected to be signed will likely reaffirm China’s commitment to developing the strategically significant Gwadar port project. Built with Beijing’s assistance, management of the port was taken over by a Chinese company earlier this year. Pakistan is seeking Chinese support to provide transport links to Gwadar to inject energy into the initiative, starting with a link to the domestic railway network.

For China, the port’s significance lies in the access it provides to the Indian Ocean, offering a much-needed alternative route for its energy imports from West Asia. Around 80 per cent of China’s energy imports are currently routed through the narrow Malacca Straits.

Chinese planners have proposed building railway links and pipelines linking the far-western Xinjiang region with Gwadar. Last year, both countries completed a pre-feasibility study on a railway link from Kashgar, in Xinjiang, through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), to Havelian. While India has expressed opposition to China’s involvement in projects in PoK, it appears that China will likely continue with its investments in the region. Also on the table during Mr. Li’s visit is a proposed hydropower project in PoK.

One obstacle facing the growing links between both countries is the security situation in Pakistan, with many Chinese companies increasingly wary of investing in the country.

Only on Tuesday, a roadside bomb targeted a van carrying Chinese port workers, Reuters reported. After the Kingho Group pulled out of a $ 19 billion deal in 2011, Pakistani officials have made frequent trips to Beijing promising to guarantee the security of Chinese companies — assurances likely to be repeated during talks this week.

[rohitvats]

I have started a new blog named 'Discussion Board' where I'd invited some authors to pen their views on the recent incident in Ladakh. The idea was to explore various military aspects related to Indian and Chinese positions and options on LAC in Ladakh Sector. However, the discussion is not limited to military matters - it is equally important to understand the geo-political angle of the debate as well.

The overall objective of the Discussion Board is to get people to contribute serious inputs on topic of discussion at hand. While only the invited authors have right to publish posts, the comments sections are open for discussion. If anyone is interested in contributing, please mail me.

Already some very good posts have been made and topic of Indian and Chinese military options is being explored. The idea is to go beyond the usual platitudes one sees in the media - even publications like IDSA regurgitate stuff which are taken as gospel truths.

The blog URL is: http://tandemwarhead.blogspot.in/

In due course of time, I'll distill all the knowledge base developed and put it together in form of a either a detailed post or a series of posts on my other blog - http://vatsrohit.blogspot.in/

I hope we can build a good knowledge base on certain topics.

MODS:If you consider the post to be inappropriate, please remove the post.

Regards,

[Prem]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/23/world ... .html?_r=0
Hackers Find China Is Land of Opportunity

(Deception is considered Virtue in China)

BEIJING — Name a target anywhere in China, an official at a state-owned company boasted recently, and his crack staff will break into that person’s computer, download the contents of the hard drive, record the keystrokes and monitor cellphone communications, too.Pitches like that, from a salesman for Nanjing Xhunter Software, were not uncommon at a crowded trade show this month that brought together Chinese law enforcement officials and entrepreneurs eager to win government contracts for police equipment and services.“We can physically locate anyone who spreads a rumor on the Internet,” said the salesman, whose company’s services include monitoring online postings and pinpointing who has been saying what about whom.
The culture of hacking in China is not confined to top-secret military compounds where hackers carry out orders to pilfer data from foreign governments and corporations. Hacking thrives across official, corporate and criminal worlds. Whether it is used to break into private networks, track online dissent back to its source or steal trade secrets, hacking is openly discussed and even promoted at trade shows, inside university classrooms and on Internet forums.The Ministry of Education and Chinese universities, for instance, join companies in sponsoring hacking competitions that army talent scouts attend, though “the standards can be mediocre,” said a cybersecurity expert who works for a government institute and handed out awards at a 2010 competition.One force behind the spread of hacking is the government’s insistence on maintaining surveillance over anyone deemed suspicious. So local police departments contract with companies like Xhunter to monitor and suppress dissent, industry insiders say.There is criminal hacking, too. Keyboard jockeys break into online gaming programs and credit card databases to collect personal information. As in other ountries, the police here have expressed growing concern.Some hackers see crime as more lucrative than legitimate work, but opportunities for skilled hackers to earn generous salaries abound, given the growing number of cybersecurity companies providing network defense services to the government, state-owned enterprises and private companies.And “if you are a government employee, there could be secret projects or secret missions,” the hacker said.But government jobs are usually not well paying or prestigious, and most skilled hackers prefer working for security companies that have cyberdefense contracts, as V8 Brother does, he and others in the industry say.Self-trained, the hacker teamed up with China’s patriotic “red hackers” more than a decade ago. Then he began working for cybersecurity companies and was recently making $100,000 a year, he said.

[member_26147]

Suspected Chinese Spy apprehended in Dharamsala!

Police today claimed to have arrested a 33-year-old man of Tibetan origin from Mcleodganj here on the suspicion of being a Chinese spy.

Referring to Tibetan intelligence reports, Thakur said Tsering was a member of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China and also served in the People's Armed Police Force (PAPF) before coming to India.

"During interrogations, the accused has admitted that he is ex-PLA personnel and Public Secrecy Bureau of China, but then left it to come to India in 2009 via Kathmandu," he said, adding Tsering was living in Narbulinga near the residence of Karmapa Lama for past one year.

Police are trying to explore his possible links outside India, especially with China.

[Agnimitra]

^^^ Different spin here:
Plot to poison Tibetans in Dharamshala foiled, Chinese spy arrested

The Department of Security of the Central Tibetan Administration in a release today said that the accused Penpa Tsering, 33, a former member of the People's Liberation Army, was hatching a “terror plot” to poison two Tibetan youths aimed at “spreading chaos and terror in the Tibetan community.”

“A terror plot to poison two Tibetan youths – Tashi Gyaltsen@Tashi Dhondup and Karma Yeshi@Tashi by Chinese Security Agencies aimed at spreading chaos and terror in the Tibetan community was uncovered,” the release said.

“This latest exposure goes well beyond Chinese government’s aggressive intelligence gathering on His Holiness the Dalai Lama, Central Tibetan Administration and other exile based organisations to undermine the exile community.”

According to the DoS, the accused hails from Lhari region of Nagchu in central Tibet and confessed to Tibetan security officials that he was first recruited and then sent across to India in 2009 by Li Yuquan who was then working as Party Secretary of Political and Legal Committee; Head of Public Security Bureau of Nagchu Prefecture, ‘TAR’ and a member of the 9th National People’s Congress of TAR. Li has been since transferred to Chamdo Prefecture, TAR but holding the same portfolio as before.

“Penpa Tsering is fully trained in intelligence tradecrafts and physical combat including weapon handling. He was in PLA from 1999 to 2002 and later worked in Public Security Bureau, Nagchu Prefecture prior to coming to India,” the release noted.

[Prem]

http://zeenews.india.com/business/news/ ... 76632.html
Tibet could emerge as trade route for Sino-India commerce

Beijing: With Premier Li Keqiang promising to further open up China's huge market to Indian products to bridge the ballooning trade deficit, Tibet could emerge as the trade route between the two countries, a Chinese expert has said.The Chinese Commerce Ministry is studying a proposal to set up new comprehensive economic cooperation zones in Tibet, to link the two biggest emerging economies and to strive to meet the India-China trade target of USD 100 billion by 2015, Wang Rui, a researcher at a Commerce Ministry think tank, said.The biggest obstacle to improving the negotiations is the trade imbalance between the two nations, Wang, researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation told state-run China Daily.
Her comments came as the trade imbalance dominated the just concluded India visit of Li who promised to open up Chinese markets for Indian products.While Natulla in Sikkim was regarded as one important land route, Indian officials say Jelep-La, through Kalimpong in West Bengal close to the India-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction was also regarded as yet another route that could be explored for cross-border trade."There are solutions to helping the two countries maintain rapid growth in bilateral trade and investment," Li was quoted by the media here as saying at a banquet at the China-India Commercial Summit.hina and India are discussing boosting an equal and fair environment to promote two-way trade and investment, he said in Mumbai yesterday.China has great potential to add investment in India, Li said, and is committed to addressing the trade imbalance with India.

[Prem]

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1 ... es-myanmar

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe keen to boost ties with Myanmar
( Let The Game begin )

Shinzo Abe arrives in Myanmar today for a three-day visit intended to boost trade between the countries, the first time a Japanese leader will have visited the country in more than 35 years.With China's influence over the democratic Myanmese government slipping, Japan is hoping to develop economic and security ties.Abe is keen to increase dialogue on regional affairs and security issues, an area that Beijing is likely to be monitoring closely, particularly given that three Maritime Self-Defence Force ships are scheduled to make a port call in Myanmar in October.In January, Taro Aso, the deputy prime minister, pledged to ease the 500 billion yen (HK$37.73 billion) that Myanmar owes Japan and offered to provide an additional 50 billion yen to develop a new special economic zone close to Thilawa port.
Abe is expected to go one step further with Japan's largesse and announce US$1 billion in development aid as well as a basic plan for the development of a comprehensive electric power infrastructure when he meets with President Thein Sein.Before his departure, Abe told Kyodo News: "I will not hold back from any co-operation. Myanmar is a friend from long ago and a pro-Japanese country."Jun Okumura, an international relations analyst with the Eurasia Group, said Japan's growing clout in the region would be welcomed by the US."There is a sense that Japan is getting a leg-up in the campaign for influence in Southeast Asia. This is not something that the Japanese government would explicitly say, although it's fairly obvious," he said.
Abe will be travelling with an entourage of representatives of 30 of Japan's largest companies, with the proposals for the electricity project grabbing the headlines. This sector is considered ripe for Japanese investors, which have off-the-shelf technology that can be applied to a country that has struggled to introduce a comprehensive system as a result of the international embargoes imposed on the former ruling military junta. Telecommunications giants Sumitomo Corp, NEC and NTT announced this week that they had signed a contract with Myanmar to construct an optical fibre-based telecom network to link the nation's three largest cities, while Japan Post Co's postal management system is also to be transplanted into Myanmar.In return, Japan will call on the government to follow through with reforms and promote national reconciliation with ethnic minorities.The timing of the Japanese leader's visit is significant, it has been pointed out, with this weekend previously set aside for a three-way summit between China, South Korea and Japan. Shortly after Abe confirmed that he would take part in the talks, Beijing requested that they be delayed because of the continuing dispute over the sovereignty of the Senkaku islands, which China claims as the Diaoyus.Abe moved quickly to visit Myanmar, becoming the first Japanese leader to do so since Takeo Fukuda in August 1977."Until recently, Myanmar has been a military dictatorship and they had little choice about who they did business with, which is why they were friendly with China," said Okumura.
"But China tends not to have good relations with its neighbours and these other countries are always wary about border clashes - as we have seen recently with India, Vietnam, the Philippines and so on," he added.

[SSridhar]

Shinzo Abe's historic visit to Myanmar must be seen in the context of waning Chinese influence there and growing American, Indian and now Japanese interests. In May 2012, the Indian Prime Minister, Man Mohan Singh, undertook the first trip at that level to Myanmar in 25 years. Obama & Hillary visited Yangon last year. The President of Myanmar visited Washington early this week. The EU and the US are moving to consolidate trade etc with Myanmar while retaining some controls. One of the first things that a newly elected civilian government did in c. 2011 was to scrap the Chinese funded and built Myitsone dam across the Irrawady. Coinciding with Abe's trip would be the presence of three Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force vessels making a port call in Myanmar.

[member_26147]

The Dharmsala should be under constant surveillance. Who know how many of them are spies.

[Prem]

Shinzo Abe's historic visit to Myanmar must be seen in the context of waning Chinese influence there and growing American, Indian and now Japanese interests. In May 2012, the Indian Prime Minister, Man Mohan Singh, undertook the first trip at that level to Myanmar in 25 years. Obama & Hillary visited Yangon last year. The President of Myanmar visited Washington early this week. The EU and the US are moving to consolidate trade etc with Myanmar while retaining some controls. One of the first things that a newly elected civilian government did in c. 2011 was to scrap the Chinese funded and built Myitsone dam across the Irrawady. Coinciding with Abe's trip would be the presence of three Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force vessels making a port call in Myanmar.

Next in the line is Thailand. MMS will visit on the way back from Japan. The only contested area will be ME/Af-Pak. Waterways will be covered by this new alliance and PLA Navy will no be able to play spoil sport. This means PLA will try its hands on India in hope to teach lesson and asserts its importance. Every choke point in International water for China will proportionally increase the Chinese military threat to India on the land and air . Lets hope GOI understand this .

[shyamd]

@cencio4: Satellite images show Chinese fighter jets deployed to base in Tibet http://t.co/GIyraZtpUf

Confusion over names delayed border row resolution

Confusion over the nomenclature of disputed sites in eastern Ladakh may have delayed the resolution of the three-week standoff between India and China in April. A report by the China Study Group (CSG) --- India's apex policy body on the Communist neighbour --- on the border crisis has identified multiple instances when the two countries were clueless about each other's concerns simply because agencies on both sides referred to the locations with different names.
A top government source revealed that China had voiced serious concerns over Indian infrastructure buildup and aggressive patrolling at "Zhipuji," shortly after an Indian military helicopter detected an incursion on April 16.

The Indian side was flummoxed --- they couldn't spot "Zhipuji" on their maps. It took days for Indian negotiators to figure out that "Zhipuji" was, in fact, Chumar in southeast Ladakh.

The Indian Army had indeed set up a temporary structure against a 30-foot rock face, which was eventually pulled down as a pre-condition to end the standoff on May 5.

"Zhipuji" wasn't the only location that required decoding.

The Chinese flatly denied their presence in the windswept Depsang Flats. "They insisted they had undertaken no patrols in Depsang," the source said. The Chinese could have been feigning ignorance, the source added.

It was only after India pinpointed the exact coordinates of the site that the Chinese acknowledged their presence in what they insisted was "Tianwan valley."

Chinese troops had taken up positions and pitched five tents - 19km inside Indian Territory - in April, triggering a diplomatic crisis between the two Asian giants. Chumar is located some 500 km from the faceoff site.

[SSridhar]

Confusion over names delayed border row resolution

The Chinese flatly denied their presence in the windswept Depsang Flats. "They insisted they had undertaken no patrols in Depsang," the source said. The Chinese could have been feigning ignorance, the source added.

It was only after India pinpointed the exact coordinates of the site that the Chinese acknowledged their presence in what they insisted was "Tianwan valley."

'Zhipuji', one can at least understand. Confusion over Depsang is not understandable. Here are PLA & IA face-to-face and the Chinese maintained they had not intruded and that was over confusion in a name ? Besides, where was the need for GoI to give exact GPS coordinates to their Chinese side when they were in a face-to-face confrontation ?

Their plan is to coin different names to these Indian territories and claim them.

[Paul]

Maps for eastern and western sectors have not been exchanged IIRC.. ...hence both sides do not know what the other side is looking at.

[SSridhar]

China continues to pay lip service to India on trade, boundary & water disputes - Brahma Chellaney, Economic Times

Behind the hype and hustle, any India-China summit meeting runs along familiar lines: India flags its concerns sedulously, especially on Beijing's reluctance to clarify the Line of Control, the lopsided trade relationship, China's activities in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the opaque Chinese projects on transnational rivers.

The Chinese side responds with pious platitudes about friendship and cooperation. All this is quickly forgotten until the next summit, when India goes through the same motions again.

In the intervening time, however, the trade pattern has turned more unequal, China has unveiled new dam projects on transboundary rivers and enlarged its strategic footprint in PoK, and the number of crossfrontier forays and border incidents staged by Chinese troops to pressure India has increased. This is exactly what happened between the 2010 New Delhi visit of premier, Wen Jiabao and the just-concluded trip of his successor, Li Keqiang.

Lopsided Trade

Take the growing trade asymmetry. The joint statement issued at the end of Li's visit promises "measures to address the issue of the trade imbalance". But when Wen came calling, China made a similar commitment to level the playing field by taking "measures to promote greater Indian exports to China with a view to reduce India's trade deficit".

Yet China's trade surplus has soared since then, significantly expanding India's current account deficit. With trade talks that began in late 2010 yielding little, there is little hope of any respite for India from China's escalating dumping of goods.

Confident that India will continue to do little else other than file anti-dumping cases at the World Trade Organization, Beijing is systematically undermining Indian manufacturing. Moreover, it still largely imports raw materials from India and exports finished products. One new way it is seeking to perpetuate this distorted pattern is by providing debt financing through its banks to financially troubled Indian companies that agree to buy Chinese equipment or supply primary commodities.

Now consider China's response to India's exhortations to stem its growing strategic involvement in PoK, a disputed territory. Li, as if to mock India's pleas, went straight from India to "all-weather" ally, Pakistan, and signed an agreement to build an economic corridor through PoK. To shield these projects, Beijing has stationed its own forces in the rebellious, Shia-majority Gilgit-Baltistan, with the result that India now faces Chinese troops on both flanks of Jammu and Kashmir, one-fifth of which China has annexed.

Contrast China's refusal to heed New Delhi's PoK-related protestations with the intense diplomatic pressure it mounted after India's ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) signed a contract with PetroVietnam to jointly explore for oil in two blocks in the South China Sea. Beijing warned India against "any unilateral exploration activities" there. OVL eventually withdrew from one block in 2011 and the other in 2012 after paying millions of dollars in exit fees to PetroVietnam. Rivers of Discontent Water has emerged as a key security issue in Sino-Indian relations.

But like the Chinese president, Xi Jinping earlier, Li snubbed Manmohan Singh's plea that water cooperation ought to extend beyond mere data-sharing to institutionalised transparency on dam building. China is the source of rivers to a dozen countries. But India is the most vulnerable to China's re-engineering of transboundary flows because it alone receives nearly half of all river waters that leave Chinese territory. Beijing, however, continues to spurn India's proposal to conclude a pact or establish an inter-governmental institution to define rights and responsibilities on shared rivers.

For more than three decades now, India has engaged China in never-ending rounds of sterile discussions on the boundary issue in what has become the longest, most-barren process of negotiations between any two countries in modern history. China has not only derailed the process to clarify the Line of Actual Control (LAC), rendering that term farcical, but it has also signalled unequivocally that it will not accept the LAC as the basis for a boundary settlement.

When Wen came in 2010, he delivered a hard message on the border issue — that it will "not be easy to completely resolve the question" and that, in any event, it will "take a fairly long period of time". These remarks in a prepared speech amounted to a public disavowal of the "firm commitment" enshrined in the joint statement issued just hours earlier to resolve the border dispute "at an early date".

The latest joint statement, deferring to China, actually drops the "early date" reference. The fact that Li's visit was preceded by a 19-kilometre-deep Chinese incursion into Ladakh attests to China's resolve to keep India under sustained pressure by neither clarifying the LAC nor moving towards a border settlement.

Beijing earlier sabotaged the Joint Working Group (JWG) on border talks by going back on its 2001 commitment to exchange maps of the eastern and western sectors with India. And by playing the Arunachal and Kashmir cards, it is now seeking to stymie the JWG's replacement mechanism led by the so-called special representatives (SRs).

Language of Leverage

Having being shaken by the daring Ladakh incursion, India has every right to tacitly link China's one-sided market privileges and bilateral political and military exchanges to substantive progress on the border issue. But it is flubbing the opportunity. The joint statement, for example, preposterously expresses "satisfaction" over the decade-long border talks between the SRs, even as it encourages them to "push forward the process of negotiations". This stance only aids the Chinese game-plan to take India round and round the mulberry bush.

India, however, has done well to counter China's draft " Border Defence Cooperation Agreement" by proposing its own accord designed specifically to prevent border flare-ups and incursions. The Chinese-drafted agreement, in the name of preserving Himalayan peace and tranquillity, cleverly aims to keep India vulnerable to Chinese military pre-emption by freezing its belated build-up of border defences.

Li's visit has served as a fresh reminder that India-China summits yield little more than hype, spin and reassuring cliches. Combating China's containment-behind-engagement strategy demands a concerted Indian plan of action that combines beefed-up deterrent capabilities with leveraged diplomacy and military cooperation with friendly countries.

[eklavya]

The Economist reports:

India and China: Parsnips unbuttered

Flowery rhetoric fails to hide difficulties in the bilateral relationship
May 25th 2013 | DELHI |From the print edition

“A FEW clouds in the sky cannot shut out the brilliant rays of our friendship”: on his first foreign trip as China’s prime minister, Li Keqiang was determined to make his visit to Delhi, India’s capital, a success. On May 21st, bouncing with energy and quick to flash a smile, Mr Li enthused over his “candid and friendly” meetings with India’s political and business leaders, notably with Manmohan Singh, the prime minister (pictured with Mr Li, above).

Mr Li spoke further of “strategic” and “maturing” relations, of mutual trust, and of shared regional interests. And with some tact he responded to Indian concerns about disputes along the 4,000km (2,500-mile) border, a ballooning bilateral trade imbalance in China’s favour, and cross-border rivers.

Yet the smiles were chiefly for show. Mr Li’s trip, after all, comes only weeks after satellites and drones showed a Chinese military force camped 19km inside the Indian side of the line of control, high up in Ladakh, in the Himalayas.

[bBrief incursions by both armies are routine, but this one, exceptionally, lasted for three weeks. Indians say Chinese diplomats appeared to be caught unawares, suggesting they had been kept deliberately in the dark about the incursion. Indians triggered a diplomatic mechanism supposed to deal with on-the-spot flare-ups along the border, to disappointing effect.[/b]

India, said one official in Delhi on the eve of Mr Li’s visit, has to be “absolutely clear-eyed” about Chinese intentions. For all Mr Li’s sweet talk of “handshakes over the Himalayas”, Indian policymakers see the People’s Liberation Army asserting itself. Not only did the incursion come on the eve of Mr Li’s visit; it also followed a call by the new president, Xi Jinping, to fix the border “as soon as possible”.

Perhaps China was raising tensions as a prelude to possible negotiations—an old Chinese ploy. And yet differences over Indian policy, as over much else, seem to run deep inside the Chinese establishment. Many Chinese strategists want a tranquil western flank, especially with growing security priorities in the South China Sea and East China Sea. But, says a Chinese diplomat, internal scrapping over policy is, at times, “very, very hot”. Some Indian observers believe that an assertive Chinese army is trying to force diplomats’ hands when it comes to the border question.

As for ordinary Indians, they continue to be unenamoured of their neighbour. An opinion poll conducted last year but only just published suggests that more than four-fifths of Indians consider China to be a security threat. Three-quarters want closer ties with America.

The economic relationship, though fast-growing, appears not to help. Bilateral trade has soared from just $340m two decades ago, to nearly $70 billion. The two prime ministers say they are aiming for $100 billion by 2015.

That is welcome. But China’s economy is nearly five times larger than India’s. The value of India’s exports of ore, chemicals, cotton, plastics and fish to China is outweighed, three-to-one, by Chinese exports back of electronic goods, machinery, mineral fuels and silk. A Chinese academic judges that the shortfall with China accounts for half of India’s growing trade deficit, when imports of oil are not counted. In India it is becoming a political issue.

Mr Li spoke this week of India getting better access to the Chinese market. Yet much of the problem is India’s: its manufacturers are too weak to export much. Still, lifting some barriers will help. Indians hope to sell more pharmaceuticals and foodstuffs (buffalo meat, anyone?). In particular, IT and outsourcing firms want to expand in China. On his India trip Mr Li visited an especially successful one, Tata Consultancy Services, in Mumbai.

Yet exasperation abounds. In April India’s embassy in Beijing reported on growing numbers of its firms targeted in trade disputes in China. Chinese observers of India retort with anecdotes of Indian political meddling against their country’s firms. Partly as a result, of proposed Chinese investment worth $66 billion in India, only $500m has actually been realised, a Chinese academic estimates. A similarly piddling sum of Indian capital is in China.

Elsewhere, one tiny drop of comfort came from Mr Li’s visit. India worries about ambitious Chinese plans to tap Tibetan rivers for power generation. A Chinese water expert from Nanjing, for instance, suggests that Tibet offers a potential 200,000MW from hydropower, while just 500MW has been harnessed.

Downstream in India, environmentalists and security hawks fear that even run-of-the-river hydropower dams, which do not use large reservoirs, could disrupt the timing of water flow. To improve trust, short of a full river treaty, Mr Li agreed to share data on river flows, notably on the mighty Brahmaputra, for five more years, and pass on warnings of floods for some months of the year. That is welcome, even if it merely means renewing existing practices. Much as can be said about the rest of Mr Li’s trip.

[SSridhar]

The Economist reports:

India and China: Parsnips unbuttered

Flowery rhetoric fails to hide difficulties in the bilateral relationship
Some Indian observers believe that an assertive Chinese army is trying to force diplomats’ hands when it comes to the border question.

IMO, it will be foolish to deceive ourselves that there is some kind of rift between powerful Generals in the PLA and the CPC and the Generals are forcing the political CPC to act in a particular way against us. The CPC was never, never divorced from the influence of the powerful armed forces (unlike in India). This is even more so now when Pres Xi Jinping wears three hats comfortably including being the Chief of the Central Military Commission. Xi has also been connected with the armed forces earlier.

[eklavya]

^^^
100% agree SS. The old saying "actions speak louder than words" is completely true in the case of the CPC-PLA. India needs to forge a formal security alliance with Japan, US, Vietnam, etc. and redouble the investment in defending the Tibet border.

[shyamd]

@TOIIndiaNews: Face-offs continue; China has built 5km road inside Indian territory http://t.co/UVf20cy3T3

[rohitvats]

X-Posting from another thread:

Some time back, I had postulated that China gets India to sign all these meaningless agreements to forge a false sense of normalcy. Using this false sense of normalcy, it restricts India from achieving its true potential in military terms and maintains a status quo which is beneficial to China.

I must admit that I had not evaluated the PLA positions and options in depth in past. Analysis of PLA spatial distribution shows that PLA has got away by committing bare minimum number of troops to Indian borders - both in the east and west. But more so in west.

Analysis of PLA forces under Lanzhou Military Region (responsible for Ladakh section of LAC) show that PLA troops are spread far and wide. In fact, it is my opinion that if Indian Army+AF were to mount a surprise and rapid offensive onto PLA positions occupying Ladakh, we could overwhelm them. PLA would take minimum of 4-5 days to bring together a cohesive force against India. And this when India and Indian Armed Forces would be fully ready. And waiting.

On reason for this in my opinion is that PLA was stationed across China with the objective of preventing enemy forces from threatening the Chinese heartland in coastal areas and Beijing. And for assaulting Taiwan. The two potential enemy forces could be USSR and US Army.

However, the fact that China has got away with deploying minimum number of troops shows how confident they are of Indian polity not taking aggressive position and exploring such options.

In the recent Discussion Board I had started, I have written a piece on spatial distribution of PLA under Lanzhou and Chengdu MR. Also, there is a short analysis of connectivity in terms of rail and road connectivity. The section will be expanding further.

http://tandemwarhead.blogspot.in/2013/0 ... ity-1.html

PLA forces under Lanzhou and Chengdu MR:

http://tandemwarhead.blogspot.in/2013/0 ... u-and.html

There are some other excellent pieces which explore last mile connectivity situation from Chinese perspective.

Please feel free to participate by using the comments section.

[SSridhar]

Chinese daily calls Japanese leaders petty burglars for trying to turn India against China - ToI

Piqued over Japan's warm ties with India, an influential Chinese daily on Tuesday said New Delhi's wisdom lies in dealing with its disputes with Beijing calmly, undisturbed by "internal and international provocateurs".

As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh undertook a visit to Tokyo amid reports of defence deals between the two sides, the ruling Communist Party's mouthpiece, the People's Daily, on Tuesday lashed out at Japanese politicians, terming them as "petty burglars" on China-related issues.

China is locked in a maritime dispute with Japan and the two countries are currently at loggerheads over the disputed islands in the resource-rich East China Sea.

"Before Premier Li Keqiang's visit, the China-India border standoff was hyped up by international media. The divergence and contradictions between the two countries were also exaggerated as if the Sino-Indian ties had been strained suddenly," said in an article titled 'Sino-Indian diplomatic miracle embarrasses Japanese politicians'.

"But what surprised the media was that China and India properly solved the issue in a short time. During Li's visit the top leaders of both countries had sincere and candid talks and came to a series of strategic consensus and cooperation. The shift of Sino-Indian ties in such a short time is a miracle.

"In the development of Sino-Indian ties there are several divergence and contradictions. Some countries see these differences as an opportunity to provoke dissension," it said.

"China and India have great vision and great wisdom," it said, adding that "India's great wisdom lies in dealing with ties with China in a calm way, undisturbed by internal and international provocateurs." {even if China provokes India constantly, aggresses indian territory frequently, tries every trick to surround it and contain it with the Indian subcontinent}

Referring to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe call to Japan, India, Australia and the US to jointly form a "Democratic Security Diamond" to compete with the ascendant China, the paper said Abe also made visits to countries in China's neighbourhood.

"Some politicians just made themselves petty burglars on China-related issues," it said.

"The so-called 'Democratic Security Diamond', 'Strategic Diplomacy' and 'Values Diplomacy' among other new terms seem very strategic. But in fact they unveiled the narrow-minded diplomatic thoughts of Japanese government. The conspiracy of these petty burglars is doomed to fail," it said.

Its sister publication, Global Times highlighted the reports of India and Japan close to signing a deal to supply amphibious US-2 planes to India during the visit of Singh.

Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggested it would mark a strengthening of the alliance between Japan and India in terms of defence and military cooperation, and that Japan is trying to take advantage of the border conflicts between India and China and to contain the latter with the possible sale.

It is very clear that the Chinese aggression on the LAC has this important component: Chinese pique at growing Indian relationship with all of China's neighbours with whom China has border disputes.

The Chinese are used to such kind of abusive, invective language referring to international leaders. They used to call Nehru a dog of western imperialism.

[RajeshA]

It is very clear that the Chinese aggression on the LAC has this important component: Chinese pique at growing Indian relationship with all of China's neighbours with whom China has border disputes.

The Chinese are used to such kind of abusive, invective language referring to international leaders. They used to call Nehru a dog of western imperialism.

SSridhar garu,

I think we should also have choicest words for the Chinese like "The Last Imperial Scum", etc. There are of course others who may also qualify for such epithets but that should not stop us from making a point that they are imperialist, and that their critique of Japan falls flat simply because they themselves are occupying N.E. Ladakh, Tibet, East Turkestan, Inner Mongolia, North Goguryeo (Korea) and are making illegitimate claims on many islands in the East China Sea and Indo-China Sea.

So in the same way we always add "Peace Be Upon Him" to the Prophet, similarly whenever we speak of China, it should always be with "The Last Imperial Scum" added to it, lest one forgets.

[Lalmohan]

the term "middle kingdom" covers it aptly - invokes an imperialistic memory

[RajeshA]

the term "middle kingdom" covers it aptly - invokes an imperialistic memory

IMHO it is not the same thing. "Middle Kingdom" evokes a birthright, the "Mandate of Heaven", the right to rule others. That is how they have always seen themselves. So it is a compliment.

"The Last Imperialist Scum" is a label from modern political standpoint, it is filled with scorn, and sounds like a call to bring down this illegitimate imperium.

[Lalmohan]

'mandate of heaven' is as bogus as 'manifest destiny'

[RajeshA]

'mandate of heaven' is as bogus as 'manifest destiny'

When has that ever stopped people from using such slogans?!

[Lalmohan]

never, but its up to the listener to ridicule it (or not)

[RajeshA]

Lalmohan ji,

in our newspapers we read terms like empress and prince being used for Sonia and Rahul. It is a little tongue in cheek but its use often underlines their power and their right to power.

Similarly use of "Middle Kingdom", "Mandate of Heaven" underlines China's historic right to rule over an empire. Sure some die-hard democrats may use the term a little mockingly, but through this use they still acknowledge the hard power that China wields and they legitimize it through the use of these archaic terminology.

Subtle tongue-in-cheek sarcasm is useless when the power of the other is real.

One has to use explicit scorn to make one's point! Hence "The Last Imperialist Scum"!

[Lalmohan]

i would modify it to middling kingdom or meddle kindom

[RajeshA]

i would modify it to middling kingdom or meddle kindom

That is cheeky but polite language. The Chinese however often use scorn to talk about others. Indians too should use scorn to put the Chinese down.

It is fine for British to be cheeky about all this. The language says more about the speaker and his attitude than it does about the Chinese. India is however a country which is directly affected by Chinese aggressiveness. So we need to heap much more scorn on them!