PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

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chola
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by chola »

subhamoy.das wrote:Am not sure what u are trying to get at with your single minded focus on sales. GDP is real as it measures the economic output of a market. Sales measures the economic input of the market. So sales and GDP measures two different but connected aspect of a market. If the market has fake output numbers then how is it going to pay for the real input numbers. In your model a market can print money and do no economic output and continue to consume input. If that is the case then there was no need of plants or offices to exist. All can stay at home, make monthly visit to the bank to pick up the credit and go to shop and buy the stuff? So in essence all will be in perpetual retirement mode!

Why make things hard for yourself to understand? GDP is pretty much worthless except for comparisons of how my economy is bigger than yours. So who the hell cares? And the chinis have already won by a mile on that account, even while downplaying their GDP to cheat on trade. http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingl ... -thinkers/

Sales are monetary exchanges. They represent products already paid for and taxed. They are all we need if our purpose is to sell things and actually leverage the chini economy to our advantage.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by chola »

mahadevbhu wrote:good posts highlighting FDI, chola ji.

Now, can we actually blaze a 21st century path in which the importance of fdi is diminished.

We can see that a lot of higher margin industries exist in the software sector. Suppose India attracts a lot of FII capital to software companies [It's already present; look at the market cap of TCS, Infy etc.] , and those companies use this capital to hire engineers and export software for all over the world. We become a mass software exporter to the world, just like China is a widget exporter today.

The internet of things, where the "things" are small computer enhanced everyday objects/widgets, which have a "brain" , running, for example; android O/S, will open up a huge pool of programming demand.

And we will be able to build out our country with fickle FII (electronic money) and software exports.



{watch this space Cholaji- perhaps a consultancy would do a white paper on this }
FDI is as great as it's ever been. Every nation that passed through the global supply chain, in turn, became an new investor. The US invested in Japan, then when Japan developed it joined the US in investing in Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea. After when Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea developed they, joined the West and Japan in investing in China.

I'm all for the software wallahs and their trade. We have the greatest software and service outsourcing industry in the world bar none. It had been at the top of the perch for a decade and a half since Y2K. But it still only employs around 2 million at most. For years, I wanted to see this new world explode and leapfrog us past the rest of Asia if not the West.

But now, I don't think it will ever happen. In the end, software is a rich man's luxury. It is based on high salaries for a very few high impact workers. What's worse, only the West is wealthy enough or willing enough to outsource their jobs to us. Look at Wipro, TCS and company. Their revenue is 80% US/UK based. It's single stream (nearly all export) and dangerously imbalance.

No I still feel we need to make our mark on the global supply chain. China is no longer wage and cost competitive. Jobs are flowing out. It would sicken me if I see in the next two decades Vietnam or even Bangladesh lapping us because they were able to take advantage of this while we were not.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by chola »

Liu wrote:
don't forget that USSR sent the first astranauots ,man-made satellite and spaceship into the space.......at that time,USSR once was the most innovative state on the earth and ass-kicking USA.
Everything you cited were expensive programs that gave no return. Those weren't great innovations. They were brute force projects that basically every major nation in the West could have done if they wanted to spend money (and captured German scientists) on them.

Innovations in the West, such as the TV set, the transistor, the computer or the internet created massive wealth because they ended up being useful things that people wanted. Cosmonauts and the sputnik gave the USSR what?

Communist nations are never innovative especially compared to the free ones. Granted, commie European nations might be more innovative than banana republics in Africa. But can you seriously compare Russian crap with the stuff invented even by Sony and Samsung never mind the great Western entities like Bell, Boeing, Apple, etc.?

China innovates nothing and will never innovate anything as long as it remains communist.

Unlike most Indians, I hope the CCP rule you people nice, long and hard.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by member_20292 »

FDI is as great as it's ever been. Every nation that passed through the global supply chain, in turn, became an new investor. The US invested in Japan, then when Japan developed it joined the US in investing in Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea. After when Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea developed they, joined the West and Japan in investing in China.
And now, China, Korea, Japan will join the US and the rest, in developing India. I just hope that India has the stomach to pass tough reforms that make it go through the middle-income-trap , and not get stuck in it like Chile, Argentina, Turkey , Brazil and Malaysia.
By the current look of things, it does not look like this will ever happen; simply because we do not have the 100% literacy levels, forget economic education, for the masses, that allowed for a national consensus in Japan and S.Korea. Also, our thinking is steeped in relationship based, socialist thinking; both pointing to a Portugal-Italy-Spain type of social and economic future, which is, not quite the richest in the world, nor the most dynamic.
I'm all for the software wallahs and their trade. We have the greatest software and service outsourcing industry in the world bar none.
. Word. From the trenches, I can tell you that it is AWESOME to see how quickly software projects can get implemented in India, and I can see why fortune 500 companies would pay to ship work to India.
It has been at the top of the perch for a decade and a half since Y2K. But it still only employs around 2 million at most. For years, I wanted to see this new world explode and leapfrog us past the rest of Asia if not the West.
Your wait is not over just yet. It will happen. Slowly.
But now, I don't think it will ever happen. In the end, software is a rich man's luxury. It is based on high salaries for a very few high impact workers. What's worse, only the West is wealthy enough or willing enough to outsource their jobs to us. Look at Wipro, TCS and company. Their revenue is 80% US/UK based. It's single stream (nearly all export) and dangerously imbalance.

This is changing as we speak. Japan is the first domino to fall, and it is starting to export jobs to us. We shall get there.
No I still feel we need to make our mark on the global supply chain. China is no longer wage and cost competitive. Jobs are flowing out. It would sicken me if I see in the next two decades Vietnam or even Bangladesh lapping us because they were able to take advantage of this while we were not.
Vietnam is probably already lapping us per capita. For a small, cutish looking people, they sure fight hard, as the French and the Americans have found out in the past.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

chola wrote:
Liu wrote:
don't forget that USSR sent the first astranauots ,man-made satellite and spaceship into the space.......at that time,USSR once was the most innovative state on the earth and ass-kicking USA.
Everything you cited were expensive programs that gave no return. Those weren't great innovations. They were brute force projects that basically every major nation in the West could have done if they wanted to spend money (and captured German scientists) on them.

Innovations in the West, such as the TV set, the transistor, the computer or the internet created massive wealth because they ended up being useful things that people wanted. Cosmonauts and the sputnik gave the USSR what?

Communist nations are never innovative especially compared to the free ones. Granted, commie European nations might be more innovative than banana republics in Africa. But can you seriously compare Russian crap with the stuff invented even by Sony and Samsung never mind the great Western entities like Bell, Boeing, Apple, etc.?

China innovates nothing and will never innovate anything as long as it remains communist.

Unlike most Indians, I hope the CCP rule you people nice, long and hard.
we are talking about "innovation" ,instead of "profitable",aren't we?

it is a great feat and a milestone for SOviet to launch the first man to space and launch the space ear for humankind...

SOviet was quite innovative,but it didn't know how to earn profit from its advanced tech.
Soviet was a quite innovative scientist,but it was not a good businessman.
you are obviously tell the difference between "innovative scientists" and "good businssmen".

guy, you are too blindly against communism,while you know little about communism.

"innovation" has nothing to do woth "communism" or "capitalism",but depends seirouly on sustained fund.
all developing countries ,including CHina and india ,are not as innovative as west,not because they are communism or capitialism,but because they simply can not afford the heavy sustainable investment on R&D.

Japan was not innovative and had to copy in 1950s-1960s,just because Janpan was poor ;
Japan became gradually innovative after 1970s,just because they was rich enough to afford heavy investment on R&D...

So is CHina.. and so will India.
Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Liu wrote:guy, you are too blindly against communism,while you know little about communism.
:) Ah! the Chaddi shows....
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Christopher Sidor »

chola wrote:
Liu wrote:
don't forget that USSR sent the first astranauots ,man-made satellite and spaceship into the space.......at that time,USSR once was the most innovative state on the earth and ass-kicking USA.
Everything you cited were expensive programs that gave no return. Those weren't great innovations. They were brute force projects that basically every major nation in the West could have done if they wanted to spend money (and captured German scientists) on them.
Yet the same race was willingly run by the Americans. They raced the soviets to the moon and back. Where the soviets were concerned, their space program was an appendage to their military. Since the soviet military did not see any value in going to the moon, their moon program saw a gradual decline.
chola wrote: Innovations in the West, such as the TV set, the transistor, the computer or the internet created massive wealth because they ended up being useful things that people wanted. Cosmonauts and the sputnik gave the USSR what?
That is because in the Soviet Union everything was geared up towards the military. The soviets did not have a structure to enrich themselves using what they had achieved in the military technology.
chola wrote: Communist nations are never innovative especially compared to the free ones. Granted, commie European nations might be more innovative than banana republics in Africa. But can you seriously compare Russian crap with the stuff invented even by Sony and Samsung never mind the great Western entities like Bell, Boeing, Apple, etc.?
There is a confusion over here about manufacturing quality and innovation. The quality of manufactured goods from the Warsaw Pact nation was abysmal. But hell innovation from Japan, which was once upon a time synonym with quality manufacturing is still low. Or is it? Or is it the case that Japanese innovation were never successfully marketed in the world? Consider the case of cellular phones. Before the world was enthralled by the apple camera phone of 2007, the most technologically advanced and feature rich phones were the Japanese. It had over 10 great manufacturers of mobile phones, sharp, nec, and many more. Where Japanese failed was their inability to market their phones to whole world. Something which the showman Steve jobs was an expert in doing.
Just because the ideas of the former eastern block are not well known, it does not mean that they were not innovative. West and in particular USA have a talent of marketing and that is what fools a lot of people out there. There is a perception out there that USA is more innovative. It is not the case. USA is the biggest and the most profitable market in the world. That is why markets are partial to what will work over there.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

chola wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:Am not sure what u are trying to get at with your single minded focus on sales. GDP is real as it measures the economic output of a market. Sales measures the economic input of the market. So sales and GDP measures two different but connected aspect of a market. If the market has fake output numbers then how is it going to pay for the real input numbers. In your model a market can print money and do no economic output and continue to consume input. If that is the case then there was no need of plants or offices to exist. All can stay at home, make monthly visit to the bank to pick up the credit and go to shop and buy the stuff? So in essence all will be in perpetual retirement mode!

Why make things hard for yourself to understand? GDP is pretty much worthless except for comparisons of how my economy is bigger than yours. So who the hell cares? And the chinis have already won by a mile on that account, even while downplaying their GDP to cheat on trade. http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingl ... -thinkers/

Sales are monetary exchanges. They represent products already paid for and taxed. They are all we need if our purpose is to sell things and actually leverage the chini economy to our advantage.
Do u have facts to prove that GDP is worthless? Have u presented any paper on this theory. I am sure you will get a noble prize if u can prove that GDP is crap - no sarcasm meant - I mean really because it will be a totally new concept going against the established rules. But you have not answered how the sales is financed in CHINA?
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

subhamoy.das wrote:
chola wrote:

Why make things hard for yourself to understand? GDP is pretty much worthless except for comparisons of how my economy is bigger than yours. So who the hell cares? And the chinis have already won by a mile on that account, even while downplaying their GDP to cheat on trade. http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingl ... -thinkers/

Sales are monetary exchanges. They represent products already paid for and taxed. They are all we need if our purpose is to sell things and actually leverage the chini economy to our advantage.
Do u have facts to prove that GDP is worthless? Have u presented any paper on this theory. I am sure you will get a noble prize if u can prove that GDP is crap - no sarcasm meant - I mean really because it will be a totally new concept going against the established rules. But you have not answered how the sales is financed in CHINA?
GDP has its value,because there is not better indicator.

but as for CHina, GDP indeed contradicts sale.

BTW, it is funny that you buy the fact that the sales is financed in CHINA.

1. no government on the earth can afford financing yearly sale of 22m autos, global 1/3 food,electricity,and household appliance,let alone the sale of global 1/2+ steel and concrete.

2.if Chinese government could keep finiancing sooo huge sale,then CPC bosses would surely find the Perpetual motion machine of economy development and be greatest economists everseen.


3. On the contary, sales in China rely on bank credit much less than USA and India.

for example,70% car-buyers in CHina buy cars with cash,instead of bank loans while 70% ones in USA buys cars with bank loans.

Indian car buys depends on bank finiance much more than CHinese one,that is why auto sales declined in India while grow 20% in CHina while fund retreated to USA last year.

CHinese house-buyers have to pay 30% of total house price at least( sometimes 60% or 100%) as Down payment before they apply mortgage loans to banks.

however, Yankees usually can pay zero down payment before they get mortgage loans from banks or Fannie mae.

Yankees house buyers depends on bank finance and government finiance (such as Fannie mae) much more than CHinese.....that is why crisis took place in USA ,isntead of CHINA,
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

so what is financing the sales ( where are the common chinese getting the cash ) !

The options left are

FDI or black money landing right in the pocket of chinese joe on the street via govt banks like we have in India where people get paid by the govt in village for doing nothing

every chinese household has 2 jobs ( there is a shortage of service jobs and no taker for plan jobs as i found ) and the goods are cheap ( they are not as i compared cost of cars, electricity, broadband, house relative to wages some time ago with a poster named heech)

every chinese has wealth handed down from previos generation

sales data is fake!
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Suraj »

What's generating the sales ? The larger labor active force and an abundant supply of goods. The Chinese labor force is what - 800-850 million ? Most of them are in the organized sector, and paid well enough to consume basic goods and services, and China of course produces massive volumes of goods and services, enabling them to sell at competitive prices. However, it seems that in cities, real estate is very costly, so companies either provide dorms or workers live in so called 'ant farms' - the Chinese version of slums.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

subhamoy.das wrote:so what is financing the sales ( where are the common chinese getting the cash ) !

The options left are

FDI or black money landing right in the pocket of chinese joe on the street via govt banks like we have in India where people get paid by the govt in village for doing nothing

every chinese household has 2 jobs ( there is a shortage of service jobs and no taker for plan jobs as i found ) and the goods are cheap ( they are not as i compared cost of cars, electricity, broadband, house relative to wages some time ago with a poster named heech)

every chinese has wealth handed down from previos generation

sales data is fake!
none of above.

it is CHinese huge manufacturing capacity that create enough pysical wealth for CHinese.

Chinese produce 500M tone + food,so CHinsese can afford food easily than Indians.
Chinese produced 10 times more autos ,so CHinese can afford autos eaisly than Indians.
Chinse build more highways,expressways and other infrastructures than indians ,so CHinese can enjoy more modern communication more easily than indians.


in a word, hard working creats real wealth....no pains no gains.

the real wealth one country can enjoy is what its citizens create by their hard work,not what it center bank prints.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

Suraj wrote:What's generating the sales ? The larger labor active force and an abundant supply of goods. The Chinese labor force is what - 800-850 million ? Most of them are in the organized sector, and paid well enough to consume basic goods and services, and China of course produces massive volumes of goods and services, enabling them to sell at competitive prices. However, it seems that in cities, real estate is very costly, so companies either provide dorms or workers live in so called 'ant farms' - the Chinese version of slums.
well, CHinese peasant workers usually have houses in their home villages and their houses are usually 2-5 floored and large enough.

the dorms provided by facotories or companies are ,abt farms so called,just Temporary accommodations for them.

BTW,
"ant tribes" usually are not peasant workers,but those youth,who just graduate from schools and look for their fortune in CHinese largest cities such as Beijing,Shanghai ,Guangzhou and SHenzhen.

the starting salary for college graduate is usually 2000-5000 RMB(350-800 USD)/monthly .after working for 3 years, many of them might earn 5000-15000RMB(800-2500USD) in CHinese big cities.
However the house price in Beijing is usually 30000-60000RMB(5000-10000USD)/square meter and one 3-room apartment may cost 3-6 million RMB(0.5-1M USD) . the down payent might be 1M RMB(0.16 M USD) at least.

Obviously ,those Chinese young fortune-persuers have to spend long time to save enough down payment of one new house.Before that,they have to live in cheap "ant farm" .

If Chinese youth can not promote their monthly salary to 10000RMB(1500USD)+ at their age of 30, it means that they have been the losers of the fierce career competition and can not afford houses in big cities at all . On this occasion, most of them usually would leave big cities and look their fortune in smaller cities or their home.

As for peasant workers, they usually has the city as Temporary accommodations and eventually went back home.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

BTW, my older brother is one lucky dog of millions members of "ant tribe".
when he graduated in 2003 and started working in Beijing, his monthly salary was only 3000RMB(400USD at the exchange at that time).
He had to live in "ant farm" until he got married in 2009.
but now,his yearly salary might be more than 600K RMB(100K USD),even excluding her wife salary, and owns 3 apartments in Beijing. the 3 appartment of of my elder brother might value more than 15MRMB(2.5M USD) already,considering the rapid appreciation of their home.
here are the Characteristics of "ant tribe"
1. young.usually they are less than 35 years old.
2. they are usually are college graduators,many of them have masters degrees or DR degrees. lots of them also have experiences to study in USA ,EU or other countiries.
3.they want to become one of those lucky dogs like my elder brother after struggling for years and have their home in CHinese big cities.
BTW, once I was one of "ant tribes" too. I worked in Shenzhen during 2003-2005,then I was tired , gave up and went back home prefecture in 2009. But now,I feel my life is fine tooo. after all, life cost is much cheaper than Beijing and other Chinese big cities .
SO, though my salay is much less than my elder brother's, my real life quality is still ok and acceptale. after several years of struggle and hard work, I also have several appartments,cars ,wife and kid too.
Last edited by Liu on 06 Mar 2014 15:32, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

BTW.
MY personal experience might explanain why sale in CHina rocket sooo quickly.
I grew and lived in a lonely undeveloped county in inland CHina.
in 2000, the yearly income of most Chinese families I know was 10-30K RMB(1.5-2.5K USD at that time);
now, the yearly income of most CHinese families I know is 50-150K RMB(8-25K USD).
Considering cheap life cost in CHina, most urban CHinese family can save 30-40% of their total income.those peasant workers can save more usually ,because factories usually provide free food and accomodation.

So , one typical CHinese familie around me can save 30-70K RMB(5-11KUSD) every year


considering that the prefecture I live is a quite undevelped one in CHina, other areas in CHina might be better.
Last edited by Liu on 06 Mar 2014 12:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by member_20292 »

Good to have real life experiences of real chinese people reporting from the trenches, Liu!

Xie xie ni!
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

After comparing the job earning data u have posted and comparing to those from heech, pay is not great shake unless basic goods cost 1/3 or 1/4 of what it costs in India, it cannot drive the kind of sales Chinese market claims to be witnessing. Manufacturing or for that matter service , cannot drive consumption unless they create massive well paying jobs. Another angle could be that these jobs are being driven by fixed asset development - bridges, roads, buildings - etc.

So bottomline, if we have to believe the sales figure, there is a massive job creation in low end of the market ( under graduate labor ) that has happened and the fact that due to over supply the basic goods, made by Chinese companies are cheap, and hence getting consumed in bulk.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

subhamoy.das wrote:After comparing the job earning data u have posted and comparing to those from heech, pay is not great shake unless basic goods cost 1/3 or 1/4 of what it costs in India, it cannot drive the kind of sales Chinese market claims to be witnessing. Manufacturing or for that matter service , cannot drive consumption unless they create massive well paying jobs. Another angle could be that these jobs are being driven by fixed asset development - bridges, roads, buildings - etc.
So bottomline, if we have to believe the sales figure, there is a massive job creation in low end of the market ( under graduate labor ) that has happened and the fact that due to over supply the basic goods, made by Chinese companies are cheap, and hence getting consumed in bulk.

difference is that peasant workers in chinese sweatshops can afford much more industry products than indian counter class(india rural peasants,dwellers in slums). chinese peasant workers take there salaries back home and upgrade their houses in home villages.millions of young "ant tribes" struggle for their future in chinese cities and many of them succeed in rising to mid class like my elder brother and me. so both peasant workers and ant tribes create huge demand for steel,concrete and houses
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

so,because china is much more industrialized than india,chinese youth have much more chance to rise into mid class. because every rural chinese has land in the home villages, those losers who fail to rise into mid class also can be free from hunger and homeless ,affordding a higher life quality than indian counter class.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

subhamoy.das wrote:After comparing the job earning data u have posted and comparing to those from heech, pay is not great shake unless basic goods cost 1/3 or 1/4 of what it costs in India, it cannot drive the kind of sales Chinese market claims to be witnessing. Manufacturing or for that matter service , cannot drive consumption unless they create massive well paying jobs. Another angle could be that these jobs are being driven by fixed asset development - bridges, roads, buildings - etc.
So bottomline, if we have to believe the sales figure, there is a massive job creation in low end of the market ( under graduate labor ) that has happened and the fact that due to over supply the basic goods, made by Chinese companies are cheap, and hence getting consumed in bulk.
well, as i know ,most taiwanese yearly family income is about 500-1000k Taiwan dollars(100-200kRMB or 16-32kUSD),which is quite close to many chinese areas(one typic family in BEIJING usually have a yearly income of over 100k RMB). considering lower life cost ,most families in those chinese area in fact enjoy life quality that can.match high income economies like Tainwan and s.korea.that is why. taiwanese , hongkongese and oversea chinese gradually lose supperiority complex day by day now while facing their relatives in mainland china
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by jamwal »

Liu wrote:BTW, my older brother is one lucky dog of millions members of "ant tribe".
when he graduated in 2003 and started working in Beijing, his monthly salary was only 3000RMB(400USD at the exchange at that time).
He had to live in "ant farm" until he got married in 2009.
but now,his yearly salary might be more than 600K RMB(100K USD),even excluding her wife salary, and owns 3 apartments in Beijing. the 3 appartment of of my elder brother might value more than 15MRMB(2.5M USD) already,considering the rapid appreciation of their home.
here are the Characteristics of "ant tribe"
1. young.usually they are less than 35 years old.
2. they are usually are college graduators,many of them have masters degrees or DR degrees. lots of them also have experiences to study in USA ,EU or other countiries.
3.they want to become one of those lucky dogs like my elder brother after struggling for years and have their home in CHinese big cities.
BTW, once I was one of "ant tribes" too. I worked in Shenzhen during 2003-2005,then I was tired , gave up and went back home prefecture in 2009. But now,I feel my life is fine tooo. after all, life cost is much cheaper than Beijing and other Chinese big cities .
SO, though my salay is much less than my elder brother's, my real life quality is still ok and acceptale. after several years of struggle and hard work, I also have several appartments,cars ,wife and kid too.
Impressive.
Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

China is now the richest country on earth.

If say the top 200 million conservatively get to $1 million in asset as Liu is posting, owning several apartments, wife’s, cars, etc

200 million x $1 Million = $ 200 Trillion in assets.

That would mean China is worth more than the rest of the planet put together!!
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by panduranghari »

Liu wrote:so,because china is much more industrialized than india,chinese youth have much more chance to rise into mid class. because every rural chinese has land in the home villages, those losers who fail to rise into mid class also can be free from hunger and homeless ,affordding a higher life quality than indian counter class.
While I certainly cannot dispute your assessment on the current status quo about growing affluence of middle class Chinese, I would like to caution you to be aware that the stories coming out about china and the degradation of nature due to uncontrolled industrialisation could make living within China very hard.

Also past performance is no guarantee for future success.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

Theo_Fidel wrote:China is now the richest country on earth.

If say the top 200 million conservatively get to $1 million in asset as Liu is posting, owning several apartments, wife’s, cars, etc

200 million x $1 Million = $ 200 Trillion in assets.

That would mean China is worth more than the rest of the planet put together!!
1.not every one of "ant tribe" can be as successful as my elder brother,as I said in the previous post, my elder brother is a lucky dog of millions of members of "ant tribe". the yearly income of my elder brother and his wife is several times more than that of typical family in Beijing which is usually 100-200KRMB(156-32KUSD),I think.

2.but his story proves why so many CHinese youth leave their hometown and rush to CHinese big cities for fortune------those cities are land full of opportunities.

3. here is the status quo of one CHinese families in big cities or mid cities
3-4 members( the husband, the wife,1-2kids). it has two salaires because both the husband and the wife work.
the family yearly income varies according to areas. for example,the yearly income of one typical familiy around me is 50K-150K RMB it is much less than that( usually over 100K RMB) in Bejing ,because the per capita GDP here is only 1/3 of Beijing.

if the husband or wife are over 35 years old ,the family usually has 2 or more appartment. one appartment was free or bought at a extreme low price before the house-distribution reform was carried one dacade ago, the others are bought at market price.

if the husband or wife are less than 35 years old, the family obviously can not have chance to get free appartment or Preferential priced house. So those families usually have only one appartment with the support of bank loans,after paying 30% or more down payment .

4.status quo of most CHinese families living in smaller cities(county towns , ordinay towns,urbanized villages),
3-4 members(couple and 1-2 kids),two salaries.
most CHinese families in small cities (county towns or ordiniary towns) usually own one one 2-7 floored house and one new appartment at least. they usually live in the new appartment and leasing the 2-7 floored house to peasant workers.
the 2-7 floored house was usually built at very cheap cost before house reform a decade ago.

for example, both my parents and my mother_in_law live in one county town. my parents have one 2-floored house and one small shop for renting .my mother_in_law has several appartment. their houses were all bought or built at very cheap cost before house reform. So ,although their pension very limited (only 300-400 USD/monthly,evern lower than the salary in "sweatshops"), they still can live a acceptable life with the rent of their houses.

5. the status quo of most CHinese families in rual area.
4 -5 members( couple and 2-3 kids). both the husband or wife usually work as blue-collar one in urban areas. their kids are usually taken care of by their grandparents home villages. because of free accomodation and food provided by the factories, the rural couple I know usually can bring back home 30-70KRMB every year.

almost every rural family has their piece of land and one 2-7 floored house in home villiage
.
becasue house in cities is so expensive,most of rural couples who wok in urban area usually give up buying one new house in cities and spend their salary in building new houses or upgrading old houses in their home villages
Liu
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

Theo_Fidel wrote:China is now the richest country on earth.

If say the top 200 million conservatively get to $1 million in asset as Liu is posting, owning several apartments, wife’s, cars, etc

200 million x $1 Million = $ 200 Trillion in assets.

That would mean China is worth more than the rest of the planet put together!!
finally , I think that you should be ware of influence of real asset price. not every citiy has its house price as high as Beijing.
As I know, my elder brother's appartments in Beijing is even smaller than mine in my home prefecture.
the quality and modernity of my appartments also can match my elder brother's ones in Beijing.

but my elder brother's appartment are much more expensive.
one 3-room appartment costs 3M RMB in Beijing,but it costs only 1M RMB here.

BTW,
In theory, if one typical Beijing family sell its house in Beijing, it can easily get 0.5M USD cash(3M RMB) at the current market price and can afford the qualification of "investment immigrant" to Canada or australia.
Thus,it get easier and easier for ordinay Chinese to afford "Investment immigrant" in Canada or Australia ,after house price in CHina has been rocketing for more than one decade.
it seems that Canada has realized it and is going to lift The threshold of "investment immigrant"
Last edited by Liu on 08 Mar 2014 21:49, edited 1 time in total.
Liu
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

http://www.chinanews.com/lxsh/2014/02-28/5894283.shtml
留美博士春节回国优越感全无 酿杀父母后自杀悲剧
well, above link is a recent news in CHinese medias. it tells how oversea CHinese lose their feeling of superiority and become frustration after their relatives in mainland become richer and richer.
it is a tragedy,but it indeed tells people that how great growth has taken place in only 4 years in his home city and how such rapid modernization is changing people's mind.
Wang, a CHinese DR. working in USA , can earn 60K USD every year in USA. before he went to study in USA in 2008,he was a outstanding student and succeed in getting a decent job in USA after graduating. At that time,he was the honor of his families and admired by his relatives and friends in mainland CHina.

However, Last month, Wang returned to homecity in Jiangsu Province and met lots of his classmates and relatives in home city, He
Suddenly found that so many of his classmats and relatives,who admired him and have him as honor just several years ago, live a higher life quality in his home city than he does in USA,although he can earn 60K USD in USA.

So,suddenly, he felt that his hard struggle for jobs in USA is in vain and was a loser among his classmates and relatives..He was so frustrated that he killed his parents and himself last month.

BTW, the tragedy moves and shocks me very much,Because similar stories also happened to some of my most talented and clever classmates.

Over10 years ago,To study and work in developed countries was the dream of most CHinese college students .But only the most talent and clever classmates could succeed in having such chance.
After graduating form university , both my elder brother and I also struggled to apply the chance to study and work in developed countries ,but failed . At that time , those "luckydogs" who succeeded in working devleoped countries were admired by us very much.

However,since 2008,many of my "luckdydog" classmates ,who had stayed in UK or USA for almost 5-8 years, returned back to CHina and had to restart their career form junior positons. I am sure that those "luckydog" classmates are very frustrated like Dr. Wang,because they maybe feel their hard struggle to working in UK or USA was in vain. if they had stayed in CHina,they would have get a much senior postion than now.
SO, now a question is raised :
if my elder brother and I had succeeded in leaving CHina and studying in USA one decade ago like DR. Wang, could we live a better life in USA than we do in CHina now?
wasn't it lucky for us to stay in CHina?
Last edited by Liu on 08 Mar 2014 19:37, edited 10 times in total.
Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Liu wrote:In theory, if one typical Beijing family sell its house in Beijing, it can easily get 0.5M USD cash(3M RMB) at the current market price and can afford the qualification of "investment immigrant" to Canada or australia.
Thus,it get easier and easier for ordinay Chinese to afford "Investment immigrant" in Canada or Australia ,after house price in CHina has been rocketing for more than one decade.
it seems that Canada has realized it and is going to lift The threshold of "investment immigrant"
Yes, absolutely. China is the wealthiest country on earth.
Soon, very soon. China will be worth 4 times and 5 times the rest of the planet.
Everyone else will be poor and look to China to buy them or apply for immigrant visa.
All Chinese will become investment immigrants to Australia and Canada, etc.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Christopher Sidor »

This is huge: China may allow its first-ever corporate bond default. ---- Quartz Dated 5-March-2014

Please ignore the first 3 words of the headline. They are nothing more than pure sensational in nature
“Anything that can inject risk in the system and differentiate what is backstopped and not backstopped is a very good thing for China,” says Leland Miller, president of China Beige Book (CBB) International, a research firm. “Right now everyone thinks the banks are backstopping everything and that the government is backstopping [the banks]. And that’s very, very dangerous, especially in a year where you’re likely to see a lot of defaults.”

Until now, high-profile investment products on the brink of default have all been bailed out at the 11th hour. It’s not surprising that people assume that someone—banks or the government—will recoup their losses. As we’ve reported, more than 43% of the 10.9 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion) worth of outstanding trust products come due in 2014.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

BBC was showing that since majority - if not all - jobs in CHINA are in the public sector ( state controlled business ) the CCP has guaranteed that every Chinese have a job but that has made these enterprises as loss making ( or sitting on huge excess of inventory which cannot be sold ). In order to sustain these loss making enterprises, Chinese central bank is picking up huge debt and that debt is not gradually growing to a level where the CCP will have make a tough decision of letting go a massive amount of jobs and make these enterprises profitable and hence reduce the debt. If the debt keep of pilling then at some point investors will start pulling out money from the Chinese market which will lead to a crash in the currency and a social or political upheaval will happen due to spike in inflation. So basically the CCP is caught between the devil and the deep sea. If they donot cut losses/jobs the currency will tank thus making life of common Chinese bad and if they do cut then million of Chinese will loose their jobs thus making life of a common Chinese bad.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

By reading up the posts of several posters, it is clear that consumption in China is driven by jobs created by the state with public money at the expense of huge debt. As long as the CCP can sustain the debt life will be relatively good for many millions of Chinese. But when the CCP starts to default on its debt - there will be political correction in China and millions of jobs will be lost and the consumption story will come to a hard landing
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

subhamoy.das wrote:BBC was showing that since majority - if not all - jobs in CHINA are in the public sector ( state controlled business ) the CCP has guaranteed that every Chinese have a job but that has made these enterprises as loss making ( or sitting on huge excess of inventory which cannot be sold ). In order to sustain these loss making enterprises, Chinese central bank is picking up huge debt and that debt is not gradually growing to a level where the CCP will have make a tough decision of letting go a massive amount of jobs and make these enterprises profitable and hence reduce the debt. If the debt keep of pilling then at some point investors will start pulling out money from the Chinese market which will lead to a crash in the currency and a social or political upheaval will happen due to spike in inflation. So basically the CCP is caught between the devil and the deep sea. If they donot cut losses/jobs the currency will tank thus making life of common Chinese bad and if they do cut then million of Chinese will loose their jobs thus making life of a common Chinese bad.
both your proofs and your conclusions are wrong.

1.most jobs in CHina are in priviate sectors. Most of 200+ million peasants workers are working in "sweatshops",which are usually either native privates enterprises or foreign priviate enterprises.
the service sections,such as hotels,mail,cafes,grocerys,street shops,supermakrets and most malls are also private enterprises and employ millions of people.

2.many famous high-tech companies,such as Huawei,QQ and Taobao,are also private ones.Lenovo,strictly speaking,is also a private company.

3. state controlled business is not the mainbody of CHinese economy now,but it still firmly contolls the key sectors ,such as defence industry,elctricity-grid,powerhouse,railways,petrol,banks.etc.

4.the employees in public sectors is much less than those in private ones too,but generally speaking, employees in public sectors enjoy higher salaries than that in private sectors.


5. so ,your proofs are completely wrong, and of course all your conclusions are compeltelyl wrong too.
Last edited by Liu on 09 Mar 2014 08:49, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by svinayak »

The posters concept of Private company is his own according to his experience inside PRC
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

since when did china stared to have private ownership? i heard that nothing in china is can be owned privately? when i say private, i mean by international economic definition of private, owned and managed by common chinese folks with no control in management from state including "village committees.."
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Austin »

Dennis Gartman: Trade deficits are china's future

http://rt.com/shows/boom-bust/trade-def ... onomy-034/
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

subhamoy.das wrote:since when did china stared to have private ownership? i heard that nothing in china is can be owned privately? when i say private, i mean by international economic definition of private, owned and managed by common chinese folks with no control in management from state including "village committees.."
Your questions indicate how little you know about CHina.

since 1980s, private ownership has been allowed.
In 1990s,most of Chinese small state-owed enteprises and mid-size ones were privatized and millions of workers in those former state-owned enterprises were laidoff. that was the hardest era for many ordinary urban chinese since PRC was founded.

Since then ,most of CHinese employees have been hired by private sectors and private enterprises has been the main sectors of CHinese economy.
In many provinces such as Zhejiang, 70%-80% of its economies are privated one. In pearl River Delta,maybe 90% of enterprises are private ones.but in heavy-industry-driven provinces in Manchuria,private enterprises are less active.

Of course, most key sectors in CHina are still firmly controlled by state-owned enterpises ,such as electricity-grid,powerhouse,seaports,airports,highways/expressways,railways,banks,petrol,heavy industry and so on.

However, more and more Chinse private enterprises has grown up enough and start to invest one heavy industry and high-tech industry.
For example,
Taobao( the global largest E-trade enterprise asskick ebay),Baidu,QQ are all private one.
Geely autos and Sha-steel are also private ones.
http://www.sha-steel.com/
Last edited by Liu on 11 Mar 2014 18:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

so, if most of the key sectors are state owned, then most of the jobs will also be state owned, I assume.
do u have any reports on what % of the jobs are in private sector?
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

subhamoy.das wrote:so, if most of the key sectors are state owned, then most of the jobs will also be state owned, I assume.
do u have any reports on what % of the jobs are in private sector?

here was a old news in 2011.one Chinese senior officials said that 80% of jobs in CHinse urban areas are in Private sectors and 50% of governmental revenues are also from private sectors.
He also said that 99% of CHinse enterprises are small or mid-sized ones,which are usually private ones also.
http://www.xinhua08.com/a/20101112/52746.shtml
朱宏任说,占全国企业总数99%的中小企业,提供了全国80%的城镇就业岗位,上缴的税收约为国家税收总额的50%。这充分表明,没有量大面广的中小企业的平稳较快发展,就没有整个国民经济的平稳较快发展。

  此外,朱宏任表示,目前,中国65%的发明专利、75%以上的企业技术创新、80%以上的新产品开发,都是由中小企业完成的,以中小企业为代表的非公有制经济在中国经济社会发展中的地位和作用不断增强
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Rishirishi »

The crash in chinease economy is very likely to happen on tuesday or wednesday...............
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Post by ArmenT »

From The Guardian:
China's Li Keqiang warns investors to prepare for wave of bankruptcies
Premier Li Keqiang told lenders to China's private sector factories they should expect debt defaults as the world's second largest economy encounters "serious challenges" in the year ahead.

Speaking after the annual session of the national people's congress, Li Keqiang said: "We are going to confront serious challenges this year and some challenges may be even more complex." He told lenders to China's private sector factories they should expect debt defaults.
...
...
Li's warning followed the failure of Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy to make a payment on a 1bn yuan (£118m) bond last week. The default was the first of its kind for China and widely seen as pointing to the end of 11th-hour government bailouts for troubled enterprises.
Sounds kinda serious, especially since this news is coming straight from the President of China himself.
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Re:

Post by Liu »

ArmenT wrote:From The Guardian:
China's Li Keqiang warns investors to prepare for wave of bankruptcies
Premier Li Keqiang told lenders to China's private sector factories they should expect debt defaults as the world's second largest economy encounters "serious challenges" in the year ahead.

Speaking after the annual session of the national people's congress, Li Keqiang said: "We are going to confront serious challenges this year and some challenges may be even more complex." He told lenders to China's private sector factories they should expect debt defaults.
...
...
Li's warning followed the failure of Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy to make a payment on a 1bn yuan (£118m) bond last week. The default was the first of its kind for China and widely seen as pointing to the end of 11th-hour government bailouts for troubled enterprises.
Sounds kinda serious, especially since this news is coming straight from the President of China himself.

well,since PRC started economy reform in 1978,it has been a political tradition already that Chinese leaders always keep warning people of "serious challenges" in the coming year on teh annual session of the national people's congress.


of course,

it is also a "political right" tradition already that west medias keep telling people that "the collapse of CHina is to come"..
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