Bharat Rakshak

https://archive.is/eUYLV

China is responsible for the production of about 90 per cent of the world’s rare earth elements, at least 80 per cent of all the stages of making solar panels and 60 per cent of wind turbines and electric-car batteries. In some of the materials used in batteries and more niche products, China’s market share is close to 100 per cent.
China’s cornering of the clean tech supply chain has drawn comparisons to the high level of influence that Saudi Arabia enjoys in the oil market. Just as petrochemical production provides an immovable strategic buffer for the Gulf state, China’s dominance over these clean energy sectors is adding to growing geopolitical competition and has the potential to complicate the world’s fight against global warming.

This is thanks to equity investments in overseas mining operations by Chinese companies such as metals group Huayou Cobalt, carmaker BYD and battery giant CATL. In lithium, for instance, China only has a small share in mining, yet by next year Chinese interests will control more of the resource than the country needs for domestic purposes.


China is the leading producer of at least one stage of the supply chain for 35 of the 54 mineral commodities that are considered critical to the US, according to an analysis by the US Department of the Interior and the US Geological Survey.
In some cases, China’s position appears insurmountable. China produces a “staggering” 98 per cent of the world’s supply of raw gallium, according to CSIS, despite the product’s US military applications, including in next-generation missile defence and radar systems.
In electric-car batteries, for example, China’s share of the raw materials they require is lower than 20 per cent but it holds a 90 per cent share of the market for processed versions of the same materials, according to Goldman Sachs.
The production of graphite, used in the anodes in the heart of a lithium-ion battery, is instructive. While China’s market share of graphite reserves is just over 20 per cent, its market share for graphite processing is nearly 70 per cent, according to Goldman. But the cheapest way of producing graphite uses hydrofluoric acid, a highly toxic material that carries significant environmental risks, and another product for which China is the largest producer.
In several other important clean tech industries previously dominated by western companies, including wind turbines, China now enjoys a rock-solid position.

China is the leading producer of at least one stage of the supply chain for 35 of the 54 mineral commodities that are considered critical to the US, according to an analysis by the US Department of the Interior and the US Geological Survey.
In some cases, China’s position appears insurmountable. China produces a “staggering” 98 per cent of the world’s supply of raw gallium, according to CSIS, despite the product’s US military applications, including in next-generation missile defence and radar systems.
In electric-car batteries, for example, China’s share of the raw materials they require is lower than 20 per cent but it holds a 90 per cent share of the market for processed versions of the same materials, according to Goldman Sachs.
The production of graphite, used in the anodes in the heart of a lithium-ion battery, is instructive. While China’s market share of graphite reserves is just over 20 per cent, its market share for graphite processing is nearly 70 per cent, according to Goldman. But the cheapest way of producing graphite uses hydrofluoric acid, a highly toxic material that carries significant environmental risks, and another product for which China is the largest producer.
In several other important clean tech industries previously dominated by western companies, including wind turbines, China now enjoys a rock-solid position.

Around €7bn worth of Chinese solar panels are currently sitting in European warehouses, for instance, as supply outpaces demand, according to Rystad Energy, a consultancy. The stockpile is nearly enough to power all the homes in London and Paris, combined, for a year.
And yet there is deeper fear: an over-reliance on a China that appears increasingly willing to weaponise its dominance, just as it did for gallium.
Funaiole of CSIS says that while China’s control over some sectors “seems like an impossible problem” it will be possible for the US to reduce its exposure over time.

Institute of China Studies, JNU


https://www.icsin.org/publications/indi ... ntegration

So if Taiwan has such attack plans, then would India have these as well?
Could such an attack really do as much damage as depicted here?

The following YT from Lt. Gen P. R. Shankar in Gunners Shot accurately shows the China India conflicts and lessons from 1962 to 2020.



Part 2

Gunners Shot: Do unto CHINA what it does to USA - AN INDIAN STRATEGY - by LT GEN P R SHANKAR



and a 4D strategy to counter China

Why we should read this article?
Because it gives a window into the diverse Chinese operations to influence India.
By Dr. Sriparna Pathak.

https://orcasia.org/public/article/125/ ... s-strategy

...
While China engages in content manipulation, the question that needs to be answered is how serious can the effects of this manipulation be. In democracies, civil societies play extremely important roles; they act as pressure valves, affect changes in governance and urge, protest and impact governments in power to change policies. China seeks to influence the opinions of these civil societies in democratic countries which in turn will create pressures on the ruling governments to make changes to existing policies. Such changes are those that will suit China’s selfish interests. By manipulating content, creating false narratives and using false equivalence among a host of other tactics, China theoretically engages in influence operations against powers that threaten its model of governance and power of the CPC. This has been recognised recently in a lot of Western liberal democracies ranging from the U.S. to Australia to Taiwan. However, given the relatively less volumes of such influence operations in India as compared to the operations China undertakes against Taiwan or the U.S. for example, active cognisance must be taken of China’s influence operations in the country. Noting the drastic fallouts these operations could have, it is pertinent that India takes urgent steps to shield itself from the impact.

We need to keep in mind the Newclick operation to influence Indian media by using Leftists' fellow travelers.
And how Judiciary gave coverage to Newsclick from the ED investigation of the Chinese funding of Newsclick.
Judges rush to give midnight bail but are lax in allowing an investigation into the news organization being funded by China.

Another is China-India Influence Index.
A quantitative assessment of how much China influences India in various sectors.
This is the 2022 assessment.

https://china-index.io/country/india

The trends for China indicate deflation in GDP, huge mounting debts, many South Block nations are in mountains of debt to China, private investment is way down, real estate is in a bubble, unemployment is rising (many manufacturers have gone elsewhere), huge rising gap between the super-duper-party-official rich vs the common folks, belligerent attitude to all neighbors, major disagreement with US and more.

THE INEVITABLE AND IRREVOCABLE DECLINE OF CHINESE POWER by LT. GEN P. R. Shankar (retd)

These youtube generals are not noticing the three former chiefs visiting Taiwan and Gen. Navrane questioning China's hold on Tibet.

The 1962 debacle affected Congress and Govt to bend over board wrt. China. Eg Tibet is integral part of China, One China policy, support UNSC seat, Beijing Accord, open up Indian market etc, etc.

In return China was arming insurgents in North East, arming Pakistan with nukes and missiles, salami slicing, funding media like Newsclick, dumping goods in India leading to shutdown of many industries.
Now after 2020 things are different. And we see them.
Many don't understand.

bala wrote: ↑17 Aug 2023 10:52 The trends for China indicate deflation in GDP, huge mounting debts, many South Block nations are in mountains of debt to China, private investment is way down, real estate is in a bubble, unemployment is rising (many manufacturers have gone elsewhere), huge rising gap between the super-duper-party-official rich vs the common folks, belligerent attitude to all neighbors, major disagreement with US and more.

THE INEVITABLE AND IRREVOCABLE DECLINE OF CHINESE POWER by LT. GEN P. R. Shankar (retd)

I predicted two years ago that XJP is last CPC dynasty Emperor.
He was losing the mandate. Now others are recognizing.

Also Galwan is XJP's Waterloo.

Ramana, certainly, XJP is going against China, many Indian observers are cheering for him! Galwan was a thrashing the PLA didn't expect and so were the other clashes post 1962. I only wish the Indian army were given some more leeway and they become aggressive by takeover of Tibetan territory and aksai chin (Indian) territory. This would provide a sound thrashing lesson in stopping the salami slicing. India should consider takeover of gilgit too.

Lt. Gen Shankar is onto to something which shows clearly that China is facing a downhill ski race.

What I am trying to say is its BRF that first spotted the CPC decline.
In 2021. Others joined later.
BTW all these folks want to guide your thoughts exactly as you have written.

https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expre ... an-war/amp

More data on the Ptoemkin village of China

China building new facilities to militarize disputed Triton island, also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan:

https://apnews.com/article/south-china- ... 3cc300f776

ramana wrote: ↑17 Aug 2023 20:40 What I am trying to say is its BRF that first spotted the CPC decline.
In 2021. Others joined later.
BTW all these folks want to guide your thoughts exactly as you have written.

From my own post of Oct 9, 2021,

If you look at Chinese history, imperial dynasties collapsed whenever they embarked on gargantuan projects such as the Great Wall, Grand Canal, a new Capital, or a great war etc. Xi is doing both on economic and military fronts. The strength of the Chinese economy is extremely doubtful. The idea of 'common prosperity' and 'antitrust laws' seem two fold; one, to get money for the government from the nouveau rich and the other to circumscribe their influence which might be threatening Xi's position. The former shows Government's financial weakness and the latter Xi's insecurity.

The recent sacking of generals in the PLARF by XI JINPING is ominous. This is a discussion (between two Lt. Generals of Indian Army) as to why this has happened and what are the implications for China. The Chinese have modernized their army, they have dedicated rocket forces with massive inter-connectedness, heavy sensor investment, radars and other high tech. Their sight on Taiwan could be a false redirect, the actual goal could be an attack on India (both the US and Russia would shy away). The Indian armed forces are ready for such eventuality and they would fight wholeheartedly and perhaps thrash the Chinese.



// great discussion and food for thought on many avenues, areas, weaknesses and strengths of the Indian armed forces. Many areas require dedicated funding with involvement of private sector for a cohesive plan (joint theatre command), data fusion, AI, hypersonics, drones, rockets, brainpower, stamina, strongly defending the mother land and more.

sanman wrote: ↑15 Aug 2023 21:14 So if Taiwan has such attack plans, then would India have these as well?
Could such an attack really do as much damage as depicted here?

A long time ago, I asked a friend of my dad. Who is an expert on fresh water ecosystem in India. About what would happen if, TSP dropped a nuclear bomb on Tehiry Dam.

His response was that the water will just flow away. A few thousand lives would be lost immediately down stream due to time related factors.

But once in the plains, it will not have much effect.

Expect something similar with this dam as well. But on a somewhat scale due to its massive reservoir.

Take it for what it's worth.

During WW2, the dambuster raid in Germany is an interesting example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise

bala wrote: ↑18 Aug 2023 10:07Their sight on Taiwan could be a false redirect, the actual goal could be an attack on India (both the US and Russia would shy away).

XJP's stars have started dimming. When an authoritarian ruler faces collapse, he does unpredictable things without thinking about consequences. Mao did that when his Great Leap Forward failed miserably and he was criticized within the Politburo. He unleashed the 'Cultural Revolution' to cleanse the CPC and all suspects. He declared war on CPC and India.

Whatever was the original intent of Doka La and then Galwan/Pangong Tso, that Chinese intent may have changed now. I felt that the original intents were to do salami-slicing (as usual), show India the futility of getting close to the US, the ineffectiveness of the QUAD, the helplessness of India if China decided to up the ante etc. In the bargain, if it could accrue more land, jolly good. Those were the major intentions, IMO.

But, lately I have veered around to the view that China may decide, after all, not to possess Taiwan militarily because of the array of opponents it is facing. This would be especially so if Chinese economy countinues its southward journey, and if Kuomintang defeats DPP using Chinese influence operations in the upcoming elections. OTOH, XJP might feel, like Mao, that India ‘could be taught a lesson’. That could shore up the sagging confidence in XJP by the Chinese.

XJP promised a 'China Dream' of 'fuqiang' (wealth) to his people and expected in return unquestioned obedience from them to let him achieve that goal. XJP wanted the Chinese to endure pain to achieve the goal. Everyone bought that and for quite a while, it was all going according to the plan. But, that domestic goal was intertwined with the external goal of becoming the sole hegemon after displacing the US, and recasting the extant international order with 'Chinese Characteristics'. It all lies in tatters today with ever receding hopes of turning the economy around to sustain the grandiose projects and achieve the promised Manna from the Heaven. The Heaven has, however, decided now that XJP has lost the mandate.

On the question of US & Russia shying away in case of a war with China, I am always perplexed with similar Indian narratives. On the one hand, we do not want alliances, especially with the Americans, but we claim they would shy away as though 'allies' have deserted us at a critical juncture, although Galwan showed that it was not the case. Even the Russians defied the Chinese pressure in early 2020 not to supply military hardware to us. But, after the Ukraine war, the precarious state of Russia itself, and its increasing vassal-like status to China, we can't expect anything from Russia if China attacks us. In any case, we do not want or need either American or Russian boots on the ground (Russia cannot do so now even if it wants to, that's another issue). Today, practically anything that is demanded by India is approved by the US after the STA-1 status; only we may be somewhat circumspect because of history. We should be clear as to what we want from them and what we are willing to give in return.

The crescendo of voices alluding to the Chinese economic ticking time bomb is increasing. Indicators are Real estate bubble, financial companies defaulting, youth unemployment, falling yuan, people of china origin in US, Europe are trying to get their money from China via Western Union. China Manufacturing is slowly slipping away to other nations like Vietnam, India, etc. In such uncertain times, XJP might be induced to take some rash decision. There was a meeting for which the minutes (in chinese) list a laundry list of to do for China. There is mention of the rocket force. As usual war is on the air with the US. But I seriously think that would be the very last straw, attacking other soft areas including India is highly likely. China is facing recession and they may go back to pre-WTO times. 200 million farm workers who transitioned to city/urban life are now facing the brunt of the downturn. Rich people (mostly connected with CCP) of China are going to lose some of their wealth. Growth in GDP is non-existent.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/pla-navys ... a-reaches/
PLA Navy’s ‘Sharks’ Get Stealthier, China On Verge Of Producing ‘World-Class’ Nuclear Submarines – US Naval War College
Ritu Sharma, August 21, 2023
It is well known that the Chinese Navy has numerical supremacy over the navies of other countries. However, a recently released report says that after five decades since it inducted its first nuclear-powered conventionally armed submarine (SSN), the People’s Liberation Army – Navy (PLA-N) is on the verge of producing “world-class” nuclear submarines with its propulsion, quieting, sensors and weapons capabilities approaching that of Russian Akula -I class SSN.
Acoustic stealth is one of the salient attributes of modern submarines. The quietness of the design is seldom revealed, but the assumption can be safely made that Chinese submarines are increasingly becoming stealthier.
The report released by the US Naval War College assesses that this giant leap in technology will have “profound implications” for US undersea security.
China began its nuclear submarine program in July 1958 when Mao Zedong and the Central Military Commission (CMC) authorized the “09 Project.” As China lacked the required industrial capability, it persisted in seeking help from the erstwhile USSR. After being rebuffed several times, Mao issued the decree that China would proceed on a path of self-reliance in developing nuclear submarines.
After years of development, the first nuclear submarine, Type 091 (Han-class), was commissioned on August 1, 1974. It was in the mid-1990s that China was able to obtain submarines from a cash-strapped Russia.
The process of “imitative innovation” took some time as Chinese engineers learned how to duplicate and then improve the technologies they had purchased. But the time-consuming process meant that “the existing Type 093 and 094 submarine hulls were just too small to take full advantage of the technology that had been developed”.
The Type 091 SSN was the first-generation nuclear-powered submarine of the PLA-N. The second-generation submarines in the PLA-N fleet are the Type 093A Shang-II class. These 7,000-tonne nuclear-powered boats make up most of the Chinese Navy’s fleet. They are roughly the size of the Royal Navy’s Astute class submarines.
The Shang-class submarines are built by China Shipbuilding Industry (CSIC) at its Bohai Shipyard in Huludao, Liaoning Province, China. A total of six Shang-class submarines, including Shang I class SSNs (Type 093), Shang II class SSNs (Type 093A), and Shang III class SSNs (Type 093B), are in service with the PLAN. The Type 093A and Type 093B SSNs are improved versions of the Type 093 submarine.
It has been speculated that China may be building a variant with a vertical launch system (VLS) for land-attack cruise missiles. Before the mighty third-generation, Type-95 Sui Class enters service, a cruise missile variant of the Shang missile helps in proving the technology.
In early 2023, satellite images revealed that China launched the 8th Type 093 Shang-class SSNs between 13 and 18 January 2023. The land attack capability would help them to engage targets on land, much like Russian submarines have done in Ukraine.
......
Gautam

Gautam, In the above article how many hard facts are there?
And the description is all about SSN type of attack subs.
There is a lot more to SSN than having a boat.
The US NWC report is just fear-mongering at this time.

Pratyush agree on the potential damage from the dam burst. It is all water after the initial flood.
In WWII the attack on dams hardly made a difference except boost RAf morale.

Also, the reports of the collapse of the Chinese economy are highly exaggerated and laced with sky-is-falling type cries.

XJP is talking about de-dollarization etc to ensure the US props up the fragile Chinese banking system.

Ramanaji,
It is very difficult to determine hard facts in any article, as all are biased and support one view point or the other. It is perhaps impossible to survive in modern journalism without accepting money and thereby being compromised. So, I try to read as many different view points from sources that are not obviously compromised. US military has a tradition of exaggerating Russian and Chinese military to ask for more armaments. This article could be an example of this. But I quoted it as one that shows that the Chinese navy is getting stronger even as per US military sources.
Regarding the "collapse" of the Chinese economy, all of a sudden You Tube is being flooded with this. I am sure this is not just a coincidence. One must look at it with a pinch of salt. Again we must try to see who creates such programs and why.
Gautam

One more China economy down article.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... s-deepens/

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1296681.shtml
Unlike BRICS, this, AUKUS and QUAD is much more than just economic cooperation
And worried about economic impact of the trade being upset:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1296612.shtml
Emperor leaves the fortress to attend BRICS in person :
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1296695.shtml

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202308/2 ... 1d693.html
And all about refuting debt traps in Africa
So the African outreach to counter

Why China secretly fears India’s rise
https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/head- ... 24062.html
22 August 2023

China’s oft-stated ambition is to be the world’s leading superpower by 2049, the centenary of the CCP’s founding. But to achieve that objective, Xi knows China must first be an unrivalled regional power across Asia.

ramana wrote: ↑21 Aug 2023 21:24 Gautam, In the above article how many hard facts are there?
And the description is all about SSN type of attack subs.
There is a lot more to SSN than having a boat.
The US NWC report is just fear-mongering at this time.

Looks like a Chinese sub is in trouble and lost.

Some nuggets of historical clashes with China by Lt Gen Kulkarni (retd). Collusion of Pak & China happens long back. All of China's forays past 1962 were failures: Sikkim (1975 merged with India), Nathu La (in 67 the chinese lost 300 soldiers), Sumdorong Chu (1986 China blinked), Doklam (another defeat for the PLA), Galwan was another good beating (PLA lost 43+ while India lost 20). In 71 China shied away from the fracas while Pak lost BD, despite the US 7th fleet and urging by US to the Chinese to help Pak. The Russians thwarted the perfidy by the US.

India has been on top post 1962 clashes with China. India should tom-tom the victories and celebrate them.



// my next wish is a sound thrashing for China if they try anymore stunts. India should take back Aksai Chin and Shaksgam valley (gifted by Pak to China in 1963). The unraveling of Pak (considering their economic condition and internal strife) will put a full stop to the China Pak collusion. The Indian MEA should be insisting that China vacate Aksai Chin, Shaksgam valley and of course Tibet (which is one of Ts in 3T - Tibet, Turkmenistan (Xinjiang), Taiwan). All these issues are because of wretched machinations of the Britshits who left India with Brit agents like Neverwho to rule over India post independence. Neverwho single handedly created all these issues - what a moron of a character India was dealt with.

China releases a new map, making even more expansive territorial claims against India:




I think China's deliberately trying to put India on the defensive by escalating their claims, and are trying to escalate border tensions because Xi and CCP are afraid of their position at home. Whenever CCP leaders are afraid of domestic problems imperiling their reign, then they want to lash out by deflecting attentions toward outside world.

Again, this is all just flailing/posturing to help save Xi's @ss at home.

the bhai bhai cheenis are back to their old tricks ahead of the g-20 meet.

their support cohorts in India, the commies, congis, and the woke liberals, should be exterminated like diseased cockroaches

Beijing includes Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin as part of China's new 'standard map'

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... territory.