Pakistan forces watch -arms sales, operations, doctrine, etc

vsudhir · Post by **vsudhir** » 09 Feb 2007 06:39

JOhann,

What's the status of Pak's air force? Their F-16 squadron's spares problems are yet to be resolved, last I heard. Their JF-17 bit the dust thanks to Putin's declaring the RC-33 engine ain't gonna make into Pak (unless as an adversary). The bulk of their AF planes are of chinese make, if I am not mistaken? What are their plans anyway for upgrading their air force?

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 10 Feb 2007 04:08

Sudhir's asked an interesting question, and I'd like to hear from others as well.

VS,

I'm assuming you are probably most interested in the PAF's combat jets.

-The majority of their fleet is split roughly between Mirages III/Vs (most of which are 30-40 years old and/or second hand refurbs) and newer Chinese F-7s (somewhat modernised MiG-21 derivatives).

- The French have upgraded the avionics of about half of the PAF Mirage fleet for night/precision strike and limited BVR. However the PAF seem to have real trouble keeping the Mirage fleet flying safely.

- They have had 3 squadrons of F-7PGs delivered by the Chinese in 2001-03

- The PAF also appears to have bought 6 more A-5 close support a/c from the Chinese in 2003. They were having serious maintenance problems with their old ones. The decision to order more of them at short notice when they were shortly due to be retired by the JF-17 is probably because of the PAF's bombing in Balochistan.

- They started buying spares for their F-16s and C-130s with cash by the end of 2002. These were ordered before 9/11

- As you can see from the list on the other page has bought 34 Mid-Life Upgrade kits for their F-16s in service.

- They've signed an agreement to buy 18 x bloc 52 F-16s.

If nothing prevents full delivery between the new buys and the upgrades they will have 52 x BVR capable F-16s, with AMRAAMs and PGMs.

- The Pakistanis are very serious about buying AEW systems. Even before 9/11 they had the cash for it and Ericsson's willingness to sell the Erieye - but Embraer wasnt willing to sell to Pakistan and they had to find a new platform. In 2006 it seemed settled that they were buying 6 from the Swedes which will be installed on refurbished Sab-2000s.

There was some talk of the PN operating the as well. I dont know if the proposed P-3/Hawkeye combination is meant for them.

- The PAF is also upgrading its air surveillance network.

- The Pakistanis desperately need the JF-17 (or its like) to phase out the Mirages and A-5s if they are to have a flying air force of any strength in another 10 years.

If the Chinese cannot either buy of fthe Russians re. exporting their engines on JF-17 or J-10 to Pakistan (which seems likely for at least as long as the Russians have a shot at the MRCA contract), or the Chinese engines fall short, the PAF may be forced to order additional F-7s

- In short it would seem to me that the PAF's acquisitions have moved them away from the threat of total and utter over-match, but they are still going to be in serious trouble unless either the Chinese projects mature, or the Saudis throw huge amounts of money in their direction.

The PAF has a small core of modern strike and fighter aircraft that will probably be used to attmept to hit high-value IAF targets in the air and on the ground, while the rest of its point-defence aircraft conduct a kind of 'People's Air War' campaign of the PLAAF/DRVAF/KPAF. The idea being to delay and if possible prevent the IAF from achieving air superiority (seen in East Pakistan 1971 or Kargil 99) until Pakistan can bring some kind of face-saving ceasefire in the kind of short, sharp, localised wars seen under under nuclear shadow.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 10 Feb 2007 04:23

Is there any truth in an assertion made by a Pakistani poster on another forum that a western engine (French according to him, so it can only be the M-88) has been integrated and tested on the Thandaar Bandarr ?

I personally thought the claim was very dubious, and I have'nt found any evidence as such, but have any of you heard of this ?

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 10 Feb 2007 04:44

One important thing to note about US sales to pakistan is that nothing cutting edge from US has been exported to these people till now.

-- Sidewinder isn't the latest 9X version.

-- AMRAAM C-5 although very capable in itself is superceded by C6, C7 and D model. By the time PAF formulates a useful doctrine Russian missiles exceeding C7 version will be available in the market.

-- EW suite is w/o DRFM. To be honest no latest countermeasure can be developed without a DRFM. The radar & RF seeker ECCM has evolved so far ahead that DRFM is not important but necessary. Please note DRFM isn't simply a memory.

-- Hawkeye 2000 will be obslete by the time it is practically useful to PN.

-- AN/APG 68(V)-9 Radar is prone to deception jamming. Deception jamming effectiveness increases by leaps and bounds if the jammer is centered around a DRFM. Unless it cannot form proper tracks there is no benefit of having AMRAAM C-5.

-- P-3C orion will have hard time against latest SSKs and SSNs. IN recently hinted that they are not advanced enough to meet its need.

-- Lastly when IAF gets MICA-IR BVRAAM pakistani F-16s will have no countermeasure against it except hoping to jam MICA's launch aircraft datalink that too if there RWR detects a launch.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 10 Feb 2007 04:56

Kartik wrote:Is there any truth in an assertion made by a Pakistani poster on another forum that a western engine (French according to him, so it can only be the M-88) has been integrated and tested on the Thandaar Bandarr ?

I personally thought the claim was very dubious, and I have'nt found any evidence as such, but have any of you heard of this ?

Thats nonsense. There is a ban on European arms sales to China. Pakistan simply cannot do airframe-engine integration + testing. 70-80% stuff on puke forums is their wish list & fantasy indulged in desperation to save their H&D and equal or better India. Don't pay too much attention to those folks.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 10 Feb 2007 19:31

Sumeet's observations are interesting, there is enough capability there to slightly worry the IAF but not in the least bother Unkil

vsudhir · Post by **vsudhir** » 10 Feb 2007 19:46

Tks for the detailed reply, Johann.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 11 Feb 2007 02:49

Lalmohan wrote:Sumeet's observations are interesting, there is enough capability there to slightly worry the IAF but not in the least bother Unkil

As I said earlier, barring absolutely huge Chinese and Gulf infusions, the best Pakistan will be able to do is prevent the IAF from gaining *total* air superiority over Pakistan for a week or two while possibly getting a few stings in.

Very different from previous air wars over West Pakistan in 1965 and 1971 when there was essentially air parity on both sides of the border.

I think a good example of how things have changed is the aggressiveness with which the PAF shot down DRAAF aircraft and confronted the VVS/PVO along the Durand Line in the 1980s, and the way they behaved during Kargil or the Atlantique shoot-down, etc.

The really interesting question is how the PAF would react to a Cold Start type operation where the IAF concentrates on achieving local air superiority over say, Poonch and Uri.

Will the PAF hurl their resources in decisively to prevent it? Or would they rather make more symbolic resistance, holding their forces in reserve against the possibility of general war?

I tilt to the latter. Unless the Pakistanis were convinced that India would not escalate further, *and* the Chinese or Arabs promised to replace their losses.

Raj Malhotra · Post by **Raj Malhotra** » 11 Feb 2007 09:56

Johann wrote:
Lalmohan wrote:Sumeet's observations are interesting, there is enough capability there to slightly worry the IAF but not in the least bother Unkil

I tilt to the latter. Unless the Pakistanis were convinced that India would not escalate further, *and* the Chinese or Arabs promised to replace their losses.

Any support takes time to bite in, and in agressive war, it will be difficult to move massive support and key it in!

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 11 Feb 2007 10:30

Raj,

What I meant is the only way they wouldnt be afraid to operate aggressively and lose aircraft in a limited war setting is if they thought they would be able to quickly rebuild their AF after things settle down.

If they didnt think there was such support they could count on, in a localised confrontation the PAF will probably hang back and conserve its limited assets.

Raj Malhotra · Post by **Raj Malhotra** » 11 Feb 2007 10:45

Johann wrote:Raj,

What I meant is the only way they wouldnt be afraid to operate aggressively and lose aircraft in a limited war setting is if they thought they would be able to quickly rebuild their AF after things settle down.

If they didnt think there was such support they could count on, in a localised confrontation the PAF will probably hang back and conserve its limited assets.

Agreed, but the chances are they will hang back as their experience of getting help is not good.

Raj Malhotra · Post by **Raj Malhotra** » 11 Feb 2007 11:43

Johann wrote: - As you can see from the list on the other page has bought 34 Mid-Life Upgrade kits for their F-16s in service.

- They've signed an agreement to buy 18 x bloc 52 F-16s.

If nothing prevents full delivery between the new buys and the upgrades they will have 52 x BVR capable F-16s, with AMRAAMs and PGMs.

IIRC the Pakistanis have 34 F-16s with them + 26 second hand are being bought + 18 new + 18 options.

So there are around 34+26 old aircraft, so as per you only 34 of these will be upgraded and rest will be continue in old configuration or is it all 34 + 26?

Though there will always be possibility that Pak upgrades all and orders additional 18 to get around 34+26+36 giving it 96 BVR aircraft which will be a potent fleet

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 11 Feb 2007 12:04

Raj,

The Pakistanis have a contract for 54 x AN/APG-68 (V)9 radars intended for " F-16 Block 50/52 new aircraft and modernization program". The 'modernization programme' includes another contract for 34 MLU kits.

-34 for their existing F-16 A/Bs (32+2)
-18 new build F-16 C/D bloc 52s

I am not sure about the discrepancy of the 2 remaining two sets - perhaps they are going to get another 2 old F-16 A/Bs donated.

The Pakistanis had originally asked for 60 MLU kits - because they were also asking for 26 used F-16s. Those used F-16s did not materialise, and so the number of MLU kits was reduced to 34.

As far as the 18 options go - those are possible, but I havent seen anything that suggests that the Pakistanis themselves have any idea when, how or if they will be able to exercise them.

So its most likely going to be 52-54 BVR capable F-16s the IAF will have to deal with.

Sparsh · Post by **Sparsh** » 12 Feb 2007 11:32

Johann,

I do not have a source handy for the following so take it for what its worth: The Americans transferred 2 F-16s to Pakistan a while ago. My faint recollection places the transfer at about 9-12 months ago. I could be wrong on that timeline but I am sure that it was 2 F-16s. The source of those airframes was not specified but most likely was the last embargoed batch that was mothballed and put into storage.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 12 Feb 2007 12:46

Sparsh wrote:Johann,

I do not have a source handy for the following so take it for what its worth: The Americans transferred 2 F-16s to Pakistan a while ago. My faint recollection places the transfer at about 9-12 months ago. I could be wrong on that timeline but I am sure that it was 2 F-16s. The source of those airframes was not specified but most likely was the last embargoed batch that was mothballed and put into storage.

Sparsh, quite right. It took place in January of 2006. It is the second last item under the PAF list on the first page of this thread.

They are Block 15 OCUs (s/no 92-405 and 92-406)and they are 2 out of the 4 embargoed F-16s that hadnt been turned over to the USN and USAF.

The other two (s/no 92-407 and 90-948) will probably make their way to Pakistan before long as I noted in my previous post.

Abhisham · Post by **Abhisham** » 12 Feb 2007 14:07

Well If the figures I heard by an AF officer for air combat exercises with Singapore Airforce F-16 and Su-30MKI correct, we need not be worried at all!!

avvipin · Post by **avvipin** » 12 Feb 2007 14:11

So what was the kill ratio?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Feb 2007 14:16

PAF was playing with a clone of matra durandal called Hafr couple of years back perhaps something the chinese had managed to fashion. it is likely this weapon and some chinese origin PGMs (simple stuff like TV guided and CCIP deep penetrators) could be manufactured locally in Wah or obtained from china is much larger quantity than US alms.

PL-12 (SD-10) with the locally made chinese seeker whose ToT they purchased from Agat will also be available in quatity for JF17 and JF20.

Pak has also been trying hard to obtain tech from Denel and Kentron in
realm of PGMs and missiles. not much is realibly known what has been done
and if something is deployed.

be interesting to see what radar we select for Mirage2000 and Mig29 upgrade coz most certainly they have a need to defeat the APG68v9.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 12 Feb 2007 14:22

Sri K wrote: What still does not make sense is how Pakistan was cleared for advanced stuff like the AMRAAM, JDAM, the latest model avionics on the F-16s, etc., considering that these toys are very much likely to end up in Beijing's hand.

Johann wrote:Sri K,

My understanding is that the Pakistanis have been forced to agree to some embarassing inventory monitoring.

That will be all well and good until the day that the break comes, and the US military attaches are busy trying to organise the embassy rooftop evacuation.

Lalmohan wrote:Sumeet's observations are interesting, there is enough capability there to slightly worry the IAF but not in the least bother Unkil

Abhisham wrote:Well If the figures I heard by an AF officer for air combat exercises with Singapore Airforce F-16 and Su-30MKI correct, we need not be worried at all!!

The specifc hobbles placed by the US on this deal because of the fear of technology transfer from Pakistan to the PRC;

- Pakistanâ€™s F-16s will *not* have certain standard hardware, such as air-defense penetration aids. Sumeet noted some of these in more detail.

- Pakistan also agreed that the US must approve in advance any F-16 flights out of Pakistani airspace.

- US Personnel will inventory US-supplied fighters and their systems every six months

- US supplied fighters are to be segregated from aircraft supplied to Pakistan from other countries to make it easier for the US to track the a/c, and keep Chinese techs away.

The flaw is of course that all but the first measure will work only so long as US defence personnel have access to PAF bases.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 12 Feb 2007 15:48

in effect you are talking about permanent US personnel postings on PAF bases to keep an eye on the toys. Mind you, there have always been lots of US forces present in Pakistan for similar purposes, just that now there will be more...

as for prior US approval for flights outside pakistan, in a hot war, pakistan will not ask, thinking that its survival is at stake

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 13 Feb 2007 10:51

Boeing gets $15.8M Navy contract boost

Published on : Tue, 13 Feb 2007 01:13

By : Agencies

WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. Navy said on Monday it awarded a $15.8 million contract boost to a subsidiary of Boeing Co.

The St. Louis, Mo.-based McDonnell Douglas Corp. will supply 10 Harpoon Tactical Block II missiles and 10 Harpoon All-Up-Round containers for the government of Pakistan under the foreign military sales program.

The company will perform the work in various locations including St. Charles, Mo., McKinney, Texas, and Toledo, Ohio, among others.

Shares of Boeing gained 20 cents to $89.40 in aftermarket trading, after dropping 80 cents to close at $89.20 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Copyright 2006 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 14 Feb 2007 13:59

PN

Pakistan, France vow to cement long-term defence ties
Tuesday, 13 February 2007

ISLAMABAD, Feb 13 (APP): Pakistan and France Tuesday reiterated desire to establish long-term sustainable defence cooperation between the two countries.

These views were expressed at a meeting between Senior Federal Minister and Minister for Defence, Rao Sikandar Iqbal, and the visiting Chief of Naval Staff of French Navy, Admiral Alain Oudot de Dainville, here.
The Minister told the visiting dignitary that Pakistan attached greater importance to its relations with France which was a reliable and sincere friend of Pakistan.
He admired the assistance being provided by France in the construction of Agosta Submarines and hoped that France would continue to assist Pakistan in the area of defence. The meeting agreed to increase training programme between the Naval forces of both the countries.
The meeting underscored the need for intimate cooperation between the Navies of the two countries which was vital for curbing human trafficking and terrorist activities at sea.
The Minister also highlighted the courageous steps taking by the government against the war on terror. He also lauded the contribution and assistance provided by the government of France in the wake of October 8, earthquake.
The Chief of Naval Staff of French Navy apprised the Minister about his meeting with Chief of Naval Staff Pakistan Navy, Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir, and expressed optimism that his visit to Pakistan would further strengthen defence cooperation between the two states.

Rear admiral promoted

ISLAMABAD: Rear Admiral Asaf Humayun has been promoted to the rank of vice admiral with immediate effect, announced a government notification issued on Monday. Humayun is a National Defence College, Islamabad graduate. He joined the Pakistan Navy in December 1970 and after initial training at the Pakistan Naval Academy and British Royal Naval College Dartmouth, UK, he was commissioned in June 1973. He has also taken a naval staff course in the US.

He is a submariner by specialisation and has held various operational command appointments including the command of Pakistan Navyâ€™s submarines Hangor and Shushuk and command of ships Tipu Sultan and Shahjahan. He has also served as the commander of a submarine squadron. His staff appointments include director submarine operations and naval secretary in the Naval Headquarters. Humayun has also served as a naval attachÃ© in New Delhi, India. As a director general of the Maritime Technologies Complex, he employed his knowledge to develop technology. He was assigned command of the Pakistan National Fleet in January 2006 and holds the office to date. During his career, he has been awarded military medals Hilal-e-Imtiaz, Sitara-e-Imtiaz and Tamgh-e-Imtiaz. He is married and has two children.

Sri K · Post by **Sri K** » 16 Feb 2007 06:01

If the Packees are getting such downgraded F-16s with so many strings attached, why are they still going for them? Is it because a) they cannot afford to buy equivalent aircraft from Europe and b) they don't have much confidence in those brand new Kung Pao (J-something) and General Tso's (J-somethingelse) Chicken from China?

m_bose · Post by **m_bose** » 16 Feb 2007 12:54

http://en.rian.ru/world/20070215/60783001.html

ISLAMABAD, February 15 (RIA Novosti) - A Pakistani jet fighter has crashed near the southern city of Karachi, local television reported Thursday.

According to preliminary information, a bird sucked into the engine air intake might have caused the crash of the Chinese-made F-7.

Pakistani television channels quoted the Air Force press service as saying the pilot ejected safely.

Fourth one in recent times.

rkhanna · Post by **rkhanna** » 16 Feb 2007 15:16

A heads up ..

Pakistan's AWAC/AEW Fleet seems tobe growing by the Minute.. You have the 7 Eeiryes , the Chinese System and now Congress has cleared the Sale of the 3 E-2C hawkeye to Pakistan.

http://www.deagel.com/news/FMS-Pakistan ... 01162.aspx

[/quote]

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 16 Feb 2007 15:20

Johann wrote: - Pakistan also agreed that the US must approve in advance any F-16 flights out of Pakistani airspace.

- US Personnel will inventory US-supplied fighters and their systems every six months

- US supplied fighters are to be segregated from aircraft supplied to Pakistan from other countries to make it easier for the US to track the a/c, and keep Chinese techs away.

Interesting...but needs some more clarifications.

Does the said USAF staff include technicians as well?

In event of a conflict, will these logistics guys from USAF release spares for servicing the birds to help with high rate of sorties?

If any of these actually happens or is true, it makes US a belligerent in case of a conflict with India.

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 16 Feb 2007 16:18

PAF F-7 fighter jet crashes in Karachi

Updated at 1320 PST
KARACHI (By Afzal Nadeem): A Pakistan Air Force (PAF) jet crashed Thursday after hitting a bird as it approached an air base for landing, PAF sources said. The pilot of the F-7 fighter jet ejected safely.

The plane was crashed within the perimeter of Masroor base in the southern port city of Karachi, after hitting a bird as it approached the air base for landing during a routine training flight.

The pilot of the jet ejected safely before it crashed No injuries were reported on the ground.

Police and Rangers officials and ambulances reached to the site of the incident, after reports of the plane crash.

Almadullah, Pukis have suffered 3 crashes this month.

kesharip · Post by **kesharip** » 16 Feb 2007 16:44

Nayak wrote:PAF F-7 fighter jet crashes in Karachi

Updated at 1320 PST
KARACHI (By Afzal Nadeem): A Pakistan Air Force (PAF) jet crashed Thursday after hitting a bird as it approached an air base for landing, PAF sources said. The pilot of the F-7 fighter jet ejected safely.

The plane was crashed within the perimeter of Masroor base in the southern port city of Karachi, after hitting a bird as it approached the air base for landing during a routine training flight.

The pilot of the jet ejected safely before it crashed No injuries were reported on the ground.

Police and Rangers officials and ambulances reached to the site of the incident, after reports of the plane crash.
Almadullah, Pukis have suffered 3 crashes this month.

Typical Puki Attitude..

They called it as "sports man spirit of TSP"
IAF ne itna Mig-21 phoda hai, Hum kishi se Kam nahin
India ne Eek(1) Aankh(Eye) Phoda to Hum Do(2) Aankh Phodenge, but they forgot to realise that India had blinded its own eye.

You know what Musy had said last Summer. They can walk Two Miles for Every mile India walks. So it is just part of CBD agreement.

So IAF should stop buying new MRCA & waste money instead they can crash all Flying Coffins and there will be no PAF tomorrow.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 16 Feb 2007 19:35

Mr Kesha..whatever,
Your last post is in very bad taste. For starters, IAF ne Miig21 nahi phoda, they flew and won war on that plane. And they are not flying coffines, maybe your chacha who told you that does not know enough about IAF. I strongly suggest that you edit your post to remover derogatory remarks against IAF.

Thanks,
fanne

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 16 Feb 2007 19:53

fanne wrote:Mr Kesha..whatever,
Your last post is in very bad taste. For starters, IAF ne Miig21 nahi phoda, they flew and won war on that plane. And they are not flying coffines, maybe your chacha who told you that does not know enough about IAF. I strongly suggest that you edit your post to remover derogatory remarks against IAF.

Thanks,
fanne

Fanne, you missed it. Dime to increase your post count.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 892#316892

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Feb 2007 02:43

Lockheed wins Pakistan P-3C systems deal

wins!?

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 17 Feb 2007 03:12

Sri K wrote:If the Packees are getting such downgraded F-16s with so many strings attached, why are they still going for them? Is it because a) they cannot afford to buy equivalent aircraft from Europe and b) they don't have much confidence in those brand new Kung Pao (J-something) and General Tso's (J-somethingelse) Chicken from China?

The Pakistanis dont want an all-American fleet. They lust after US-subsidised modern weapons not just because of the capabilities or the association with a superpower, but because US aid (when its there) keeps spares and weapon stocks at a level that supports training and readiness. However they are also resentfully aware of how fickle American support can be - they have faced US embargoes 3 times in the last 40 years, and US restrictions and policy pressure is *deeply* hated. They dont want to give the Americans decisive control over their military potential.

The French are much more reliable in their wilingness to sell at all times and without strings attached, but the French are incredibly expensive, particularly because they know Pakistani choices are limited. Pakistani ability to buy French and keep them flying depends on how much cash the oil-producing Muslim world gives them. Aid to the Pakistani state from the Gulf states fell in the 1990s as the threat to the Gulf fom both Iran and Iraq reduced, and the Soviet withdrew from Afghanistan. It fell again 2001-2003 after the Taliban lost Afghanistan, and the missile and nuclear export business experienced severe difficulties.

That leaves the Chinese. The Pakistanis problem is that they cant be sure when the Chinese JF-Satrah and J-Thus with Chinese weapons, radars and powerplants will mature, or where their capabilities will lie on the spectrum.

The Mid-Life Upgrade kits, amraams, pgms and spares in particular give them an opportunity to quickly expand the effectiveness of their existing F-16 fleet.

The 18 new F-16s will have signigifcant commonality with their fleet, and the Pakistanis have confidence in the aircraft and weaponry performance, even if it isnt the very best out there.

With the upgrades and new a/c the PAF although diminished could deny a major opponent air superiority for a couple of weeks over Pakistan. Without it, it would be a complete walkover.

Of course in a limited war context the PAF might still chose to stay out of the fight and conserve its limited assets.

In the longer term Pakistani hopes are well and truly pinned on the Chinese military-industrial complex catching up with the Americans, Europeans and Russians.

Until the Chinese get there the PAF will limp along as best as they can depending on a mix of various sources.

SRoy wrote:Does the said USAF staff include technicians as well?

In event of a conflict, will these logistics guys from USAF release spares for servicing the birds to help with high rate of sorties?

The Pakistanis will have physical control of what is delivered to Pakistan. What they have to do is prove that that they are keeping to their commitments.

My understaning is that twice every year American teams will show up in Pakistan to inventory PAF stocks of US provided equipment.

This will be in additional to other means of verification, both technical and personal.

Discrepancies and/or failure to cooperate would result in delays in delivery material on order, and blocks on further orders.

The main idea behind all of this is to prevent or at any rate reduce Chinese access to US technology in Pakistani hands.

In the current climate, during a conflict my guess is the Americans would use the threat of an executive ban on arms deliveries to force the Pakistanis to agree to a ceasefire at the earliest possible time.

Sparsh · Post by **Sparsh** » 17 Feb 2007 03:39

Johann,

It seems that you guys have learnt nothing from your past dealings with the Pakistanis. The way things are set up there is nothing to prevent the Pakistanis from staging any number of Ojhri type incidents to slip things under the table to the Chinese.

How will an American team six months from now determine whether 10 AMRAAMs were expended in training or shipped off to China? Or for that matter what will you guys do when one of the new build F-16s is "lost" during a practice sortie over the Arabian sea complete with PGMs, a LPD, and an ECM pod with little to no recovered debris? Whats to prevent the Pakistanis from stuffing one of the JDAM storage bunkers with any old about-to-expire bombs and blowing it up while the original lot of JDAMs, presumed lost in the explosion, finds its way into Chinese hands?

The possibilites are only limited by your imagination. Flying in a team twice a year is not going to stop any of the above. Unless there is an American team at Sargodha round the clock monitoring every last bit of inventory and keeping tabs on what F-16 takes off with what and returns with what, there is no way you will be able to prevent the Pakistanis from giving the Chinese what they want.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 17 Feb 2007 04:19

Sparsh,

I am not American, although I take an interest in what they do.

As I said earlier, even under the best case scenario, the only element of their controls that is sure to work is the decision to hold back certain kinds of equipment, and avoid selling them the most advanced versions of certain munitions.

Beyond that, the Americans and their procedures will be tested by the Pakistanis. Unless the Americans are super-aggressive about investigating Pakistani claims of training and accidents, and punish them for attempts at deception, the leakage rates will increase.

The inventorying provides a useful backstop and corroboration to intelligence, both human and technical. Pakistani transfers to China are not easy to conceal. Talk about it usually come up on both the Pakistani and Chinese sides.

What you do about intelligence is a matter of political will.

The Americans since the Cox report have shown real seriousness of purpose in the kind of punitive measures they have brought against allies who traded technology to the Chinese.

One hopes that will continue in future administrations.

Sparsh · Post by **Sparsh** » 18 Feb 2007 04:13

Johann,

Whatever leakage of technology takes place will happen under a public but unverifiable cover story like the aforementioned crash in the Arabian sea, the bunker explosion etc.

I doubt that relying on intelligence information or loose talk on the Pakistani or Chinese side to catch transfers will work. Being wiser from past experience, both will be more careful in covering their tracks and they are certainly capable of keeping a lid on things with a sufficiently large counter intelligence effort. That not a lot of people need to be involved for the transfers to take place will make this effort easier and "doable".

The Americans are fooling themselves if they think that anything short of a permanent presence at Sargodha is going to stop the Pakistanis from leaking technology to the Chinese. And I don't think they are fools.

P.S. - Sorry for being presumptive in my last post with that "You guys" bit. I know that you are a Brit and not an American.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 18 Feb 2007 06:37

No offence taken Sparsh.

What is the most effective means to prevent something from happening?

Is it policing people every second? Or is it creating self-policing through deterrence?

Intelligence will not catch a transfer as its happening. But the track record suggests transfers always produce waves.

There are people on the Chinese side who know when they have access to some piece of American kit. There are people on the Pakistani side who know that there's been transfers, or records have been falsified. That sort of thing is difficult to keep secret.

As I said, the key test lies in whether the Americans punish the Pakistanis substantially (eg halting deliveries, reducing military funding, etc) when intelligence and questions over records together suggest a transfer has taken place. That would be the only way to establish self-policing deterrence.

The Bush administration is very sensitive about Chinese military advances - we can only hope following administrations will treat it as a priority as well.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 22 Feb 2007 07:37

Johann wrote:The following are Pakistani wishlists the USG have notified Congress of, but have not been turned in to contracts;

6 x L-88 Aerostat surveillance radars ($155m, Lockheed-Martin. Congressional notification in JUL 2002)

Johann,

Cross posting Arun_S post from Radar thread:

Just a titbit: Two days ago I saw the Pakistani Aerostat that is deployed near LaHore The recce flight was good.

Fizzle-eya Air Force was, as always a fizzle

Who else is supplying them AEROSTATs ?

rkhanna · Post by **rkhanna** » 22 Feb 2007 15:20

Who else is supplying them AEROSTATs ?

South Africans ? Turks? Germans? Italians?

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 23 Feb 2007 02:41

Sumeet,

An aerostat is a tethered balloon - the package mounted could either be optical or radar, air surveillance or ground-surveillance.

The Pakistanis had hoped to buy Lockheed-Martin air-surveillance radars to mount on the aeroststats - their interest in that particular system I think was in detecting relatively slow and low UAVs.

I dont know if they have moved on to some other air or ground surveillance radar or mounted daylight/IR/Thermal cameras to look over the border.

One wild, wild guess - they have mounted the VERA-E system they (like the Chinese) bought from the Czechs on an aerostat.

Not only would it provide an excellent passive means to fingerprint radars, IFF, datalinks, etc, with enough systems it might even tell them where AWACS were orbiting.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 24 Feb 2007 03:02

http://www.pakistantimes.net/2007/02/21/top9.htm

KARACHI: Pakistan Navy will organize a Multinational Naval Exercise " Aman 07" and an International Maritime Conference from March 6 to 13. This was announced by the Chief of the Naval Staff, Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir, while addressing a news conference at the COMKAR Office here on Tuesday.

He said that the exercise will be conducted at the harbour and the sea from March 6 to 13 whereas the conference will be held from March 4 to 6 under the auspices of the National centre of Maritime Policy Research- a Maritime focused think tank which has been recently established under the auspices of Baharia University.

Spelling out the objectives of Exercise Aman 07, the PN Chief said that this was aimed at displaying united resolve against terrorism and projecting Pakistan as a country contributing towards peace and stability as well as consolidating Pakistan Navy's position in the regional maritime domain and enhancing interoperability with regional and extra-regional navies thereby acting as a bridge between the regions.

...Admiral Tahir pointed out that Exercise Aman 07 is designed to develop and improve response tactics, techniques and procedures against maritime terrorism. Therefore, it is based on offensive and defensive operations to protect economic activities at sea.

He said that the Exercise has been divided in harbour and sea phases and will be conducted in the North Arabian Sea remaining outside the EEZ and ADIZ of the neighbouring countries. There will be no infringement of any country's waters or air space as far as this exercise activity is concerned.

The harbour phase will be utilized for pre sail conferences, coordination meetings, safety briefs, table top discussions etc. Whereas, the sea phase includes exercise focusing on maritime security operations.

The fleet review is planned on March 10 during which all participating units including naval aviation will participate.

The Naval Chief announced that 27 countries will participate in this exercise and of these eight countries will take part with their naval forces, naval aviation elements and special operation forces and the Pakistan Navy will be the 9th participants. The rest of the navies will be represented by observers- one each from a country.

To a question, he said that Iran will be participating in the exercise as an observer. A speaker from India will attend the maritime conference.

http://www.pakistanlink.com/Headlines/Feb07/17/02.htm

He said that in 2009, Pakistan Navy would be handed the first frigate F22 which was prepared in collaboration with China.