India Nuclear News and Discussion - August 20, 2007

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NRao
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Post by NRao »

Shiv,

Take this quote:
A summary of the plan provided by India to the
United States and the IAEA to separate India’s civil and
military nuclear facilities, materials, and programs, and
the declaration made by India to the IAEA identifying India’s
civil facilities to be placed under IAEA safeguards, including
an analysis of the credibility of such plan and declaration,
together with copies of the plan and declaration.
Harmless one can argue.

But, if and when a US prez wants s/he can argue that a report provided by India is not credible - and thus they need to inspect in person.

Hyde Act - yes. Internal - yes. 123 does NOT state that - yes.

But, Tellis, Burns and Rice have stated that this is the Act that A US prez is bound by. MMS strengthened that thought by telling Indian team not to break any Laws - Indian or US. So, when 123 is nebulous, the US Prez quotes Hyde. Fine. Internal to US, who in India cares?

The question I have is can we see any Indian political leader that can stand up to the US on this matter? Paint with lead in it seems to have brought even China to ground level.

I would venture to guess that even if 123 was total India centric, it does not matter. India is in no shape to do much if any US prez decides to halt cooperation. This was exposed when MMS agreed to the Hyde Act - if at all by keeping quite (Pranabda stating the obvious does not matter - too late IMHO).

123 does help India - no two ways, but it comes with hooks and sinkers.

Now that India is this deep in this, IMHO, she should sign it, buy exactly 8 reactors, get civilian side hooked to it UNTIL 3-stage is mature. Decom these 8 reactors, send/burn all related stuff and wash hands. 40-50 years? I would think it is up to the politicians. Having said that my trust in MMS has slid a few notches.

Another observation: on this topic I do not see any diff between the US, France, Russia or the rest.

I am tempted to say that Bush read MMS the "..with us......" speech.
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Rye:-

Post by SaiK »

no.. not the computer simulation.. its the "subcritical testing".. the blast that will not produce nuclear chain reaction explosion, that some anti-nuke lobbyists considers it as anti-CTBT.

ref: the u1a complex at nevada. they use conventional explosive to drive plutonium at high pressure and gather data that goes into the computer simulations. when the pluts shock wave slam collector material to produce light that is sucked in as data thru fiber optics.
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Post by svinayak »

Colonel Dr Anil A Athale (retd)

The comrades and BJP are putting India in danger

August 20, 2007

So the cat is finally out of the bag! A regional party of Kerala [Images] and Bengal now wants to rule the country, run our foreign policy for the benefit of their 'fatherland' and get more Indian soldiers killed by jihadis by denying our army technology and help from Israel.

In one sense the transparently dishonest Communists are dead right: The nuke deal is NOT about the nuclear issue at all. It is a means to an end. The end being Indo-US strategic partnership for the next 40 years! This is essentially an adjustment that both countries are making to the emerging situation in the 21st century. It is true that right till the end of last century Indo-US relations bordered on cold to lukewarm. Who can forget the dispatch of the USS Enterprise to the Bay of Bengal in 1971!

But in the same breath we must also acknowledge that after the August 1971 Treaty of Peace and Friendship with the erstwhile Soviet Union, we had a virtual alliance with that country. On the other hand, for nearly 20 years, from the 1972 Shanghai Declaration by Nixon and Chou En-lai right till 1992, the US and China were in a similar quasi alliance. Much of China's spectacular progress is owed to the massive inflow of American capital and technology, both denied to India.

The end of the Soviet Union ushered in new global equations. The US now fears the rise of China and its likely domination of Asia, and sees a powerful India as a natural counterweight to Chinese power. On the other hand China has emerged as the biggest arms supplier to Pakistan, India's perpetual thorn, and much of that country's missiles directed at us are supplied by them. In this case there is a convergence of interests between the US and India.

This author was told nearly seven years ago by a very senior American analyst that the US would make sure that India becomes a superpower. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice declared so openly last year. But the various American laws dealing with nuclear proliferation were an obstacle to American transfer of technology to India. The 123 (Ek, do, teen) deal is a means to get over those obstacles. But the strong non-proliferation lobby in the US put spokes in the deal. To satisfy them some cosmetic measures had to be put in the deal to make it acceptable to them as well as the larger Nuclear Suppliers Group.

The Ek, do, teen deal reminds one of the famous Bollywood song of the same words that launched Madhuri Dixit's [Images] career; in similar vein the nuke deal is just the beginning of a long and durable strategic partnership between the two countries. In the 1970s and 1980s most Indians supported friendship with the Soviet Union, not on any ideological grounds but due to the fact that our interests coincided. Now they coincide with the Americans'. Any Indian with India's interest at heart would support this deal.

Curiously, the Indo-US deal is being opposed not just by the Communists in India but also by Pakistan, China and Al Qaeda [Images]; the latter has just issued a warning to India. It is indeed a shame on the Communists that they are on the same side as India's enemies.

Anyone even briefly aware of the Indian Communists' past will not be surprised at this behaviour. In 1941, during World War II, an 'Imperialist War' suddenly became a People's War once Nazi Germany [Images] attacked the Soviet Union. Closer to our time, in 1962 a faction of the Communist party (now under the name of CPI-M) broke away from the parent body that was pro-Soviet Union, due to the split in Communist movement worldwide. Indian Communists have had a pro-Soviet faction and pro-China faction, but no pro-India faction.

The CPI-M to this day refuses to accept that China was the aggressor in 1962 and had no sympathy for our jawans who died fighting the Chinese. Various documents including the Henderson Brooks Report clearly bring out the anti-national role of the Communists. Like the jihadi dream of worldwide 'Khilafat', the Indian Communists are also still wedded to 'Comintern' or the Communist International.

Public memory is short, but it was these very Communists who were in the forefront of the denunciation of the nuclear tests carried out by India in May 1998! For them to now cry foul over the curb on testing is, as I said earlier, transparently dishonest.

Juvenile debate

Much of the opposition to the deal is centred round the issue of nuclear testing. Not a word is uttered about the unfettered right India has to keep increasing its stockpile and research, none of which has been restricted. It needs to be reiterated that at present no country is carrying out open testing of new weapons. If our scientists are satisfied that they can do it in the lab using computers etc, there is no reason to disbelieve them. If and when China or some other country resumes testing, India is still free to follow.

It is the political reality today that it is the US that is interested in India becoming China's equal in the military nuclear field. This not so bizarre as it sounds since enough material is available to show that in 1964, when China first tested its nuclear weapons, it was the US that unsuccessfully urged India to go nuclear!

It is thanks to American technology and help through Israel that for the first time the Indian armed forces have an edge over the terrorists. Now the Communists want us to break these relations and get Indian soldiers killed by the terrorists in Kashmir.

But the attitude of the main opposition the BJP takes the cake. The nuke deal is a culmination of the process began by A B Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh. Their opposition to the deal smacks of short-term opportunism to bring down the government by hook or by crook. It is a classic case of opposition for the sake of opposition.

India, facing Chinese encirclement on the sea and a rapidly Talibanising Pakistan in the west, needs American technology to defend against rogue missile attacks. By jeopardising the India-US partnership, the comrades and the BJP are putting the country's security in danger.

Colonel Dr Anil Athale was formerly Joint Director, War History division, Ministry of Defence, and author of the official history of the India-China war of 1962
NRao
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Post by NRao »

The nuke deal is NOT about the nuclear issue at all. It is a means to an end. The end being Indo-US strategic partnership for the next 40 years!
True, but take that with a lot of salt.

The US has not love for India to make such a move. At best the US will allow India to be at par with China (or more likely just below), but will not like a place that equals that of EU or Japan or Oz.

When the US says "partnership" it means a one way deal.
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Re: Rye:-

Post by Rye »

no.. not the computer simulation.. its the "subcritical testing".. the blast that will not produce nuclear chain reaction explosion, that some anti-nuke lobbyists considers it as anti-CTBT.
The western Anti-nukes-in-any-place-where-we-don't-want-nukes lobbyists can shove their collective opinions up a dark hole. India will make a judgement call when the time comes and all the jabbering on this front is not going to make a difference -- if we believe Indian leaders are "ball-less", then such assumptions may lead to a lot of whining.

ref: the u1a complex at nevada. they use conventional explosive to drive plutonium at high pressure and gather data that goes into the computer simulations. when the pluts shock wave slam collector material to produce light that is sucked in as data thru fiber optics.
Please re-read what Shri R.C. has said earlier -- the Indian scientific community is happy with its results from Pokharan and do not see a need to conduct tests any time soon. I doubt if anyone here can make more credible statements than what Shri R.C. has made.
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Post by Suppiah »

What the act says is clear - tests terminate the agreement. Both 104 which refers to July 2005 cut-off and 106 are very clear on this.

Presidents have signed, in the case of TSP, statements and declarations under laws of the US that TSP is not a nuclear state, it is not a proliferator etc., which even a mentally retarded child in that country knew to be a lie.

So if we conduct sub-critical (or even full-blown) tests, and not go town advertising it, it is entirely possible a future President of US, if other things are hunky-dory to certify that that was never a nuclear test but was only LPY f.rting after a heavy meal. On the contrary if relations are not good, no agreement forces US/others to sell stuff - it only allows them to do that. They can simply say sorry, we are not selling anymore.

So it all hinges on how the relationship overall works out. In a way the commies are right :twisted:
Last edited by Suppiah on 20 Aug 2007 21:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by ramana »

Two articles from Deccan Chronicle, 20 Aug., 2007

Ode to the Left in Deccan Chrnocile, 20 Aug., 2007
Left has a problem for every solution
By Suhel Seth

There has been excessive criticism about the Left parties with relevance to the Indo-US nuclear deal: the Prime Minister has been courageous, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee has been pragmatic and Prakash Karat has been stern. I have often heard industrialists crib about the Left, on how the Left is coming in the way of real progress. Ram Jethmalani, at a dinner in Mumbai last week, told me how he had written a letter to the Prime Minister expressing support on the nuclear deal and he too felt that the Left was barking up the wrong tree.

Much has been written on the nuclear deal. Frankly, I just don’t give a damn. While everyone is concerned about relations with the United States and the nuclear issue, my anger stems from the fact that even today, the Delhi-Gurgaon connector is a mess. T.R. Baalu, the minister, must be thrown out. This shameful act of delays and more delays cannot be tolerated, but more of that later, since, as I said, everyone is targeting the Left.

I believe India has a great need for the Left and their way of thinking.

We need the lunatic fringe amongst us, or else, what will the news channels cover? We need to see footage of some real old men determining the future of a really young country from their own impoverished ivory (or perhaps paper, in their case) castles, and telling us what we need to do.

The Left is the rightful naysayer that every country needs. I was born and raised in Bengal, and thus I know the DNA of the Left very well. They are classic bullies when they need to be. Essentially, they are cowards, and finally, Dr Manmohan Singh has understood that.

They always bark, but can never bite, because the leash is elsewhere — in some godforsaken province in China. And like most things that emerge from Bengal, the Left has a problem for every solution, which is why we need them.

We are a country which specialises in tabling why things cannot be done. Ask an Indian to do something and he will tell you why it cannot be done. This is the mantra of our bureaucracy as well. A bureaucrat is essentially a Leftist in the manner he thinks, and more importantly, the way he works. Which is why a bureaucrat never really works, he makes others work. He is there to stall, not solve, and that to my mind is an endearing quality for which we should thank, and not castigate, the Left.

The Left has every right to be angry. The States they run are run-down but the rest of the country is progressing very well without them. This irks them, because their primary belief of equality says that every Indian must be equally poor and not equally rich.

The Left parties hate progress because progress means money, and since they believe in being and behaving poor, riches find no place in their lives. Which is why they will wear linen shirts only when they are not on television. The Left cannot also tolerate any form of globalisation or economic integration. For them, globalisation is Cuba talking to India, and not India talking to the United States, which is why they are opposed to everything that emanates from the US.

They hate George Bush, but then they’ve hated everything that’s American. They hate David Mulford too (the US ambassador to India), but in this regard they are in a majority.

You have to empathise with the Left: they all come from simple backgrounds. The Left is also very honest. And this is for real. You will never see them involved in any scandal relating to money. Their party presidents will never be caught on camera accepting Rs 1 lakh and silly amounts like that.

The Left truly has greater integrity than any other political party, and that is perhaps another reason why we need them so desperately in India.

All said and done, living with the Left is a bit like living with your mother-in-law. You do it in order to maintain peace and harmony, but then it is a powder-keg waiting to explode, and who better to experience this than the sedate Dr Manmohan Singh? There was a time, during Atal Behari Vajpayee’s regime, when I said that the women in his alliance would give him sleepless nights: today the gender has been replaced by an ideology, and I pity Dr Singh’s plight.

Sleeping with the Left is a bit like sleeping with an elephant. Dangerous to say the least, because you never know when it might roll over.
and

Curious Silence on Hyde
By Pran Chopra

Like all his earlier statements on the subject, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s statement in Lok Sabha on August 13 on the 123 Agreement was a model of firmness, precision and clarity. It would have done credit to a top level nuclear scientist for its grasp of intricate technicalities. But it does that all the more to him, because it comes from a lifelong economist, who has been additionally wrapped up for years now in the political intricacies of governance in his kind of circumstances.

But that only adds to the mystery of the absence of any reference by him to a key element in India’s nuclear relations with America, namely the Hyde Act, which, in most Indian comments in recent months, has been held to be the villain of the piece and chief cause of all the doubts which have lately arisen in India regarding the viability of the Indo-US nuclear "deal." It also makes one wonder whether and how far America considers itself to be bound by the 123 Agreement.

Correspondingly, it also raises the question whether India would be better off without the Agreement, that is, whether the shortcomings of the Agreement outweigh all of its advantages, of which it certainly has some.

This question had always existed. But now it has been underscored by the Prime Minister himself in his statement of August 13, in which he has mentioned some of the circumstances in which the Agreement could collapse. Some of them are rooted in the Agreement.

Some more, and more serious ones, have been added by the Hyde Act.


For a reason which is better considered later, the Prime Minister’s statement is silent on the Hyde Act. Regarding 123, the statement is heavily weighted in favour of the Agreement. The points he has picked up from the Agreement are not only the centre, but the substance of his statement in Lok Sabha.

The Agreement admits that it may collapse under the weight of the disagreements between the two countries over some of its provisions. It explains that therefore an "elaborate and multi-layered consultation process" has been included with regard to any "future events" that may be cited by either party for seeking "termination of cooperation under the Agreement" or termination of the Agreement itself.

That is probably an amplification of the elegant remark by the Prime Minister in another context regarding what would happen if India carried out a nuclear explosion for testing a nuclear weapon.

He said, "We have the right to test. They have the right to protest." That means either side will take such a step, whether it be "testing" or "protesting," only after considering the balance between the advantages of taking that step or foregoing the right to take it.

In other words, each country will have to consider the balance of advantage between its reasons for terminating the Agreement and the reasons why it has come thus far for reaching it. Of course, that will depend less upon the wording of the text of any agreement than upon the difference between the bargaining power of each country today and what that difference might be at the time when either country may think that the time has come for it to reassess the usefulness of the other country to it.

That distant measure of the difference at that time between the power status of either country in the eyes of the other will depend upon how well each country has, in the intervening period, utilised the power assets that it has today for maximising them by the time it reaches that critical date.

{Kicking the can downstream.}

So, an added question before India today turns out to be whether its efforts to maximise its bargaining power by that future date will be helped or hindered by India agreeing to the 123 Agreement today, or alternatively by carving out such alternatives to the Agreement as it may, today or tomorrow, forge with its present bargaining power.

Compared with that, it is relatively easy to speculate why he decided to remain silent on the Hyde Act. It could be a tactical reason, that he might as well take advantage of the absence of the Left opposition from the House to confine the debate to the Agreement, because the remaining opposition in the House was not too greatly opposed to it.

Or it could be the broader reason that it would be better to conserve its firepower on the Hyde Act for the fuller debate on nuclear and other foreign policy issues which would materialise not too far hence.

Or it could be a still broader consideration. India’s contention has all along been that it considers itself bound only by the bilateral agreement between the two countries, and not by any domestic legislation, such as the Hyde Act, which America may cite as justification for considering itself empowered to act against India for any act which America may unilaterally consider to be culpable. Silence on the Hyde Act would be a sufficient reiteration of that position, without getting into a war of words with the opposition which may involve the government in verbalisations which would embarrass the governments of both countries at a time when both are jointly dealing with very sensitive issues. That would be a sufficient if silent reiteration of his position that, as quoted earlier, "We have the right to test. They have the right to protest."

{I think this is the reason.}

But that makes it all the more necessary for India, and that without any avoidable waste of time, to draw the world’s attention to the many respects in which the Hyde Act goes beyond the limits of the Agreement. India must insist that before America begins to cross those limits it must clarify whether it is willing to comply with the 123 Agreement itself, and to sort out any gaps in interpretation which could be an embarrassment later to either country.

This responsibility devolves individually upon each member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. A decision by the group as a whole but equally binding upon every member can fudge the judgment of each member on the many-sided issue before us. The issue is whether India is violating the 123 Agreement or America is by insisting that the Hyde Act must take precedence over the Agreement. That issue must decide how much of the responsibility, and the penalty, for a breakdown of the 123 Agreement, if it were to occur, should fall upon India, as a joint custodian of that Agreement along with America, and how much upon America as the unilateral author of the Hyde Act.
Pran Chopra is the doyen of op-ed writers in India. He always wries in Indian interests. I would take his views quite seriously.
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Post by SaiK »

rye: pl. read context: BJP crying about lab testing. its not the question of testing or not testing. its the question of what is going in the deal., and the politics.
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Post by ramana »

Saik< The Hyde Act has the same language of the CTBT in regard to the sub critical testing. In other words it bans that. Check the text about detonations leading to release of 4lbs of TNT etc.

---------------------
I disagree with Athale's contention that just because the NDA started the deal they have to support this. The version they started is far from this version. Its ridiculous for the commentators to insist that NDA support the deal in any form. THis deal has to be decfided on its merits of how it advances and holdbacks India's interests.

Also if the deal is about getting closer to the US how come the GOI has not made the case on that basis? Cant have the cake and eat it too.
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Post by rgsrini »

While discussing the deal, we need to consider its impact on other strategic aspects such as these, along with the effective neutralization of Chinese threat.

Australia wants FTA, increased coop with India

In a move to radically reshape its relations with India, the Australian government is working on a new strategic plan to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and to have increased security cooperation with the South Asian power.



A submission prepared by Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and endorsed by the cabinet has outlined the new approach "designed to elevate the India relationship to a core element in Australia's international orientation, along with the US, Japan, China and Indonesia," The Australian newspaper said
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Post by SaiK »

quite indeed.. you are now talking. good post.

the bjps are failing to under that.. and are further shedding the responsibilities of the future, where each and every deal and contracts that binds after this 123 agreement, must ensure total non-dependence with single source of nuke supplies.

the answer lies in giving up its stand on crying loud, and take leadership roles.

of course, per taken stand, we 'd wait till the US congress approves the agreement.. but, this opposition is caught in its own tail and failing to let it go.. now circling else the tail will be chopped off by the vote bank that would hail MMS.

I understand that MMS did a bad job in terms of treating people in a democratic setup.. he suddenly took veto powers in deciding the 123.. could have been better dealt with, had he taken some really reciprocative arrangements with the opposition as well.

you can't just ignore people, constitution, and vote banks, and sign up a deal.. its not healthy.

i vote for this deal to continue.. and I also vote for changes in the constitution that non majority parties can't take sole decision in a minotory run govt.

i am only seeing the political angle.. it has wide implications., to this just 2% of power source that gives 98% of the problems later.
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Post by Rye »

SaiK wrote:
rye: pl. read context: BJP crying about lab testing. its not the question of testing or not testing. its the question of what is going in the deal., and the politics.
123 and Hyde act in black and white, so what can be going on in the deal that is not written? Are there specific passages in the 123 that are causing heartburn for opponents?

IF the complaint is about the Hyde act, do the opponents understand the basics? The basics are: (a) US law only binds the US govt. (b) It is India's responsibility to have plan to defend itself under all possible future scenarios (c) India is not going to be openly called a NWS, because the whole con game to disincentivize other countries from working on their own independent nuclear programs, and being able to claim that India is in line with NPT is a first step to pulling the rest of the scam on countries that are NPT signatories and have restricted themselves from military nuke programs.

So it is not for the US to "grant India" the right to test, but they will have to obey the Hyde Act -- India's only obligation is to adhere the 123, and if the US pulls out of the 123 at a future date, so can India, and it is the GoI's responsibility to ensure that nuke energy sources are diversified sufficiently, and the GoI is already working on copntracts with France, Russia, and the US.

If a future GoI knifes local nuke research and India ends up as a consumer instead of an energy supplier down the line, whose fault is it? What difference does 123 make one way or another in such a case?


While it may be H&D-soothing to believe that "India can test and weather sanctions" -- the reality is that India is not powerful enough to keep its neighbourhood under control yet, so the question of testing is a theoretical one for the foreseeable future, until India gets its act together internally (mainly) and externally.
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Post by Rye »

SaiK wrote:
I understand that MMS did a bad job in terms of treating people in a democratic setup.. he suddenly took veto powers in deciding the 123.. could have been better dealt with, had he taken some really reciprocative arrangements with the opposition as well.
I think MMS's main problem is that he has a useless media adviser, who is too clueless on how to handle the message when it reaches the media....when was the last time the PM's media adviser clarified India's position and spun it to the public in a positive way? Fine, he may have written some intellectual book on economic theories as they apply to India, but that will not suffice to qualify for the job of media adviser. A media adviser has to be incharge of getting the message out first, and the only message the current media adviser bothered to get out was when he dumped on India's scientific establishment.

you can't just ignore people, constitution, and vote banks, and sign up a deal.. its not healthy.
Completely agree, but I have no doubt if any govt. did the above and signed up for a deal without popular support, the successor will make such an agreement null-and-void, if it was signed without adequate public support.
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Post by Kanson »

NRao wrote: Harmless one can argue.

But, if and when a US prez wants s/he can argue that a report provided by India is not credible - and thus they need to inspect in person.
Sir, pls,... I never remember anywhere India agreed to provide any report to anyone. Still IAEA safeguards are not negotiated.
Hyde Act - yes. Internal - yes. 123 does NOT state that - yes.
But, Tellis, Burns and Rice have stated that this is the Act that A US prez is bound by.
A Question.. Is Hyde going to be the last word? Or, Any amendments not possible in future ?
MMS strengthened that thought by telling Indian team not to break any Laws - Indian or US. So, when 123 is nebulous, the US Prez quotes Hyde. Fine. Internal to US, who in India cares?

The question I have is can we see any Indian political leader that can stand up to the US on this matter? Paint with lead in it seems to have brought even China to ground level.

I would venture to guess that even if 123 was total India centric, it does not matter. India is in no shape to do much if any US prez decides to halt cooperation. This was exposed when MMS agreed to the Hyde Act - if at all by keeping quite (Pranabda stating the obvious does not matter - too late IMHO).
I think there were many posts used the same example in this same thread previously.Since the question is repeated, i'm repeating the same story. A local village girl poor but good in worldly knowledge marry a millionaire but a ruffian. The condition of the marriage is whenever hus-band feels her lady is not obedient, he can nullify the marriage and stop all benefits she is enjoying from him. On such conditions, since she need to take care of her remaining life, he will provide her maintenance. Till her maintenance is statisfactorily settled, she will reside in his house. Reason she is agreeing to this extraneous condition :roll: is she and her poor family will be financially, socially well-off by this association.

I dont have to spell out what this girl would have done and how she protected herself in case of worst condition if this is an Indian movie story. Everyone knows. :)
Last edited by Kanson on 20 Aug 2007 22:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by bala »

Since there is a difference between what BJP and Congress perceive of the deal, can someone articulate the differences in 123 between the BJP view and the current version.

So far I have seen dispute on :

1) Article 2 Scope of Cooperation which talks about national laws - and ergo Hyde is revealed (no more in hiding) in 123.

2) Another contention is the word "perpetuity" of the deal

3) Reprocessing is another grey area since that has been punted to some further discussion


In my opinion

(1) is irrelevant since we have moratorium, testing on sporadic basis 74, 98. Computer simulations and Indian scientists work convinces me that there is no need to test unless there is some grave situation (like China, TSP go bonkers).

(2) is just semantics for 40yrs; if we decide that this is good what is the issue for perpetuity

(3) Reprocessing - the US has granted India more leeway than China on this count but less than Japan and others. This is the only weak area of the agreement. So this can be negotiated for more advantage for India. Again this is the nature of negotiation, we get some and we give up some.
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Post by AniB »

Shankar, Saty, Satya anveshi others raise good points drawing from power engineering, Arun Shourie, BC, now even Shri B.Raman , while holding generally anti-MMS on pedigree issues. True, I feel bad supporting KS and son. But…this is Kalyi-yuga.

Nuclear IP is the marketplace. Maybe there are wise Gujju aphorisms on how to deal with a naughty Chacha-ji in business. How and when to taking the risk to do business with one who is not totally safe. This is so prevalent in everyday life, often deliciously transposed when dealing with moderately recalcitrant teenage children
Somehow this metaphor which I think is true isn’t finding much traction here on BRF.

This Unkil-Chacha has clout and resources, which he can, and has, transferred. (He is related: democrazy, business links, mutually unthreatening militarily, disapora.)

Chacha is naughty, sort of jhakki. How to deal with him, while having escape route, declining firmly without creating a general conflagration? Many here know that COTUS/POTUS are diverse voices in Unkil’s head, what he enacts and pronounces CAN change after a year or two of chai-biscoot.

As Alok_N had clarified: we’d like a few neutrons in the economy for 5-20 years.

Kadkodkar is enunciating this pretty clearly.
http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/stories ... 201300.htm
He is forthright aqnd diplomatic to some astute questions.


These concerns exposed on BRF recall how India may have gotten a reputation as a bit holier than thou. Take my version of the ‘high road’ or I will go and take sannyas!. “how could you say this to me…â€
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Post by surinder »

shiv wrote:I cannot help feeling that Indians who talk of freedom to test are like the man who keeps boasting about his fancy cars but has never been seen in one except a used Merc on one day in 1974 and another day in 1998.
But that is the very essence of freedom. We want freedom to do something even though we may never do it, or do it very infrequently. It may not be practical, it may ne be pragmatic, but freedom is that essence. I have personally never participated in any elections nor taken part in any protest. But the freedom to do it is still valuable to me.

Furthermore, we did use the freedome twice in 60 years of our free existence (testing about 10 nukes). It is still significant that we are the only non-NWS that has the guts to test. A poor 3rd world country snubbing the nose of the rest of rest of the world. That freedom was valuable part of our psychic makup.
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Post by surinder »

shiv wrote:The US is not telling us not to test. The US is telling us "Test if you must, and we will do what we think we need to do"

Why do our netas act like slaves and expect the US to grant permission to test, and feel that a deal cannot be done unless massa gives a freebie? Massa does not give freebies.
Massa committed to China that it will honor US-China 123 treaty regardless of its own laws. Massa gave China complete freedom to test. So Massa does give, if it has to.
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Post by Rye »

Freedom is a mirage -- Real freedom is being able to do what we want and get away with it. Every sovereign state has the theoretical freedom to do what it damn well pleases, though in most cases reality decides for the state what its options are.

The con game is for the powerful states to provide a mirage of "international order" by creating rules, typically rules that place the powerful states at an advantage and make sure that the power-differential between the powerful and the powerless does not start to converge.


Laws and treaties are only advisory if there is no way to enforce the treaty -- it is India's responsibility to ensure that US following the Hyde act will have a minimal effect on the Indian economy.
Last edited by Rye on 20 Aug 2007 22:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by AniB »

I would not have labeled this story thus. Stupid DDm. This is more along the lines of where we can, we will adapt to any shifting situation. We can and will eat cake without gloating. Sorry if posted before.


COVER STORY

‘No possibility of any interruption.’
T.S. SUBRAMANIAN
Interview with Anil Kakodkar, Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission, and Secretary, Department of Atomic Energy.
C.V. SUBRAHMANYAM

Anil Kakodkar: “This agreement is a practical solution, which meets all our requirements.â€
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Post by NRao »

Sir, pls,... I never remember anywhere India agreed to provide any report to anyone. Still IAEA safeguards are not negotiated.
(Nor do I remember. Nor did I claim it has started.) That is part of the problem.

It is not India providing a report - but a US Prez providing a report to the US Congress (in which India has not say).

IF the US Congress (and of course the US Prez) is unhappy - for whatever reason (Indian policy towards Iran, let us say) things could go south. These certifications come with a cost.
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Post by Kanson »

NRao wrote:
Sir, pls,... I never remember anywhere India agreed to provide any report to anyone. Still IAEA safeguards are not negotiated.
(Nor do I remember. Nor did I claim it has started.) That is part of the problem.

It is not India providing a report - but a US Prez providing a report to the US Congress (in which India has not say).

IF the US Congress (and of course the US Prez) is unhappy - for whatever reason (Indian policy towards Iran, let us say) things could go south. These certifications come with a cost.
Sir.. true...US can even black mail...like in case of i960 chips. For that, do we want to forego other bigger benefits... that is where the diplomacy and shrewdness comes to play...

If mush can show that shrewdness.. We are very well poised than Pak in several ways..why not we ?
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Post by NRao »

Kansonji,

That is my question. Can you see an Indian leader in the future that can pull India out of a tight spot?

The US had placed a lot treaties on the table - CTBT, NPT, etc, and US also had plenty of "internal" Laws ALL these days. None of the previous Indian leaders signed off on any of them. Now, everything has changed. testing A3 needed a US General to visit ND to give approval, now Hyde Act + 123. Fine, 8% econ is too hard to ignore - understandable, and I agree. But, a US fatwa could derail Indian energy efforts. That too is fine - nothing out of the ordinary - after all the US is the sole super power and one expects that.

But, the above Q still remains. Neutrons and all.
like in case of i960 chips. For that, do we want to forego other bigger benefits... that is where the diplomacy and shrewdness comes to play...

If mush can show that shrewdness.. We are very well poised than Pak in several ways..why not we ?
Need much higher level thinking.

That is where the US is coming from - they do not care about $50 Billion. Even at this level (Nuke deal) they have bundled non-prolif with congruent foreign policy.

I just happen to think that for something like that the US and the REST need to part with a lot more and not place that much burden on India (via PM) in teh future.
Last edited by NRao on 20 Aug 2007 22:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by ramana »

Pran Chopra's last two paras are very significant as he asks GOI to clarify its stance on Hyde Act invocation.
But that makes it all the more necessary for India, and that without any avoidable waste of time, to draw the world’s attention to the many respects in which the Hyde Act goes beyond the limits of the Agreement. India must insist that before America begins to cross those limits it must clarify whether it is willing to comply with the 123 Agreement itself, and to sort out any gaps in interpretation which could be an embarrassment later to either country.

This responsibility devolves individually upon each member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. A decision by the group as a whole but equally binding upon every member can fudge the judgment of each member on the many-sided issue before us. The issue is whether India is violating the 123 Agreement or America is by insisting that the Hyde Act must take precedence over the Agreement. That issue must decide how much of the responsibility, and the penalty, for a breakdown of the 123 Agreement, if it were to occur, should fall upon India, as a joint custodian of that Agreement along with America, and how much upon America as the unilateral author of the Hyde Act.
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Post by svinayak »

The left is batting as a proxy for some other constituency in India.
I suspect the IMs as was articulated by Seema Mustafa in the Asian Age.
What is real about that articles is the clarity in that article about the 60 years of foreign relations of India and the compromise done by the INC in terms of getting the maximum for the national interest of the country.

Can somebody get all the articles of Seema Mustafa regarding this topic and collate them from MJ Akbar Asian Age

Rest of the nation may not what is being discussed regarding the foreign policy since this has deep implication. But the bigger question is which group want to stall the national security of India just for its own sake.
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Post by Kanson »

NRao wrote:Kansonji,

That is my question. Can you see an Indian leader in the future that can pull India out of a tight spot?
A difficult question to answer, when kalam ji spoke abt shortage of leaders with nobility, when the lefts are clefting the nation down, when the Opposition are just opposing everything. and Center/PM is inept in handling things...a difficult question to answer abt the future gov/pm.

But i see a twilight, Indians have comeout with great success when they are cornered/suppressed. Be it in space, nuclear or anthing... 1990s Indian revival is a good example. I hope, being a vibrant democracy, things will prevail to our satisfaction.
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Post by NRao »

But that makes it all the more necessary for India, and that without any avoidable waste of time, to draw the world’s attention to the many respects in which the Hyde Act goes beyond the limits of the Agreement. India must insist that before America begins to cross those limits it must clarify whether it is willing to comply with the 123 Agreement itself, and to sort out any gaps in interpretation which could be an embarrassment later to either country.
This is what MMS should have done in Dec of 2006. In fact, all these issues with Left and Right would not exist IF he had involved everyone and got consensus then.

However, from an American PoV, 123 is a facade. There is no way any US prez can give that assurance and keep it. He and the US will soon cease to be a super power.

It si too late to expect it.
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Post by Rye »

This part of 123 seems relevant to Mr. Chopra's question
3. If a Party seeking termination cites a violation of this Agreement
as the reason for notice for seeking termination, the Parties shall
consider whether the action was caused inadvertently or otherwise
and whether the violation could be considered as material. No
violation may be considered as being material unless corresponding
to the definition of material violation or breach in the Vienna
Convention on the Law of Treaties.
If a Party seeking termination
cites a violation of an IAEA safeguards agreement as the reason for
notice for seeking termination, a crucial factor will be whether the
IAEA Board of Governors has made a finding of non-compliance.
So the US can orchestrate a drama with some help from their friendly IAEA inspectors -- if many billions of dollars of US businesses are at stake, they will not be taking such a step lightly, one would think.

But if they were to go down the path, there will be a drama with IAEA inspectors creating a racket, the COTUS taking "serious note of international violations", following by the US proclaiming violations of the Hyde Act. Even in the worst case, it seems unlikely that any materials will be returned.


In the part about right of return in the 123, there are significant barriers to its implementation.

6. If either Party exercises its right of return pursuant to paragraph
4 of this Article, it shall, prior to the removal from the territory or from
the control of the other Party, compensate promptly that Party for the
fair market value thereof and for the costs incurred as a consequence
of such removal.
If the return of nuclear items is required, the Parties
shall agree on methods and arrangements for the return of the items,
the relevant quantity of the items to be returned, and the amount of
compensation that would have to be paid by the Party exercising the
right to the other Party.
7. Prior to return of nuclear items, the Parties shall satisfy
themselves that full safety, radiological and physical protection
measures have been ensured in accordance with their existing
national regulations and that the transfers pose no unreasonable risk
to either Party,
(What are the chances of Indian nuke waste meeting amerivan standards of "unreasonable risk"?) countries through which the nuclear items may transit and to the global environment and are in accordance with existing
international regulations.
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Post by Rangudu »

ramana,

What can MMS do to "clarify" regarding the Hyde act? As PM he is answerable to the Parliament and has given a clear statement. What is the meaning of "drawing world's attention"?

I get it that people are uncomfortable with the Hyde act. Yet the 123 says that the agreement “shall be implemented in good faith and in accordance with the principles of international law.â€
Last edited by Rangudu on 20 Aug 2007 23:26, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by NRao »

Kanson wrote:
NRao wrote:Kansonji,

That is my question. Can you see an Indian leader in the future that can pull India out of a tight spot?
A difficult question to answer, when kalam ji spoke abt shortage of leaders with nobility, when the lefts are clefting the nation down, when the Opposition are just opposing everything. and Center/PM is inept in handling things...a difficult question to answer abt the future gov/pm.

But i see a twilight, Indians have comeout with great success when they are cornered/suppressed. Be it in space, nuclear or anthing... 1990s Indian revival is a good example. I hope, being a vibrant democracy, things will prevail to our satisfaction.
Cool. That answer is fine with me.

Now, can India afford to hang her hat on such hope?

Or is she better of depending on DAE/AK - "all or nothing" in nuclear field?
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Post by NRao »

What can MMS do to "clarify" regarding the Hyde act. As PM he is answerable to the Parliament and has given a clear statement. What is the meaning of "drawing world's attention"
A very valid question.

I think N^^3 answered it, inadvertently, when he said earlier leaders did not sign off on any of the earlier treatise.

But, I agree with you that, now, he cannot do much.

IMHO, all these options are too late - even postponing the deal. IF the nation does not like the deal, the only option left, IMHO of course, is for MMS to resign.
the legalese in the 123 text is not going to be of help as much as the political relationship would be
Very well stated.

Thus the concern of US placing pressure on Indian FP does exist.
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Post by Kanson »

NRao wrote:Now, can India afford to hang her hat on such hope?
Sir, pls tell me in the 60 yrs of independence, when we had such an assured hope ?
Or is she better of depending on DAE/AK - "all or nothing" in nuclear field?
Its like saying, i take food stomach full or be hungry. Its not practicable...
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Post by John Snow »

I want to draw the attention of gentle readers that after POK

LCA engineers working in US were declared personna non grata and all the FBW software and components (india property were held back hostage) I dont know how ther was any linkage between LCA program and Indian tests.

If that was with out Hyde act now imagine with Hideous act
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Post by Kanson »

If that was with out Hyde act now imagine with Hideous act
Whts the difference...anyway the result is same.
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Post by SaiK »

John Snow wrote:I want to draw the attention of gentle readers that after POK

LCA engineers working in US were declared personna non grata and all the FBW software and components (india property were held back hostage) I dont know how ther was any linkage between LCA program and Indian tests.

If that was with out Hyde act now imagine with Hideous act
take an orthogonal look.. and see how dependent we are with the whole world to advance, from oil to technology, and the dual use technology that were denied.

the point is, either we are at a time, out paced or at a time, totally dependent.

we need to jumpstart.. control our egos.. and leapfrog. this agreement is good for that.

vision 2020.., and then we should not or our kids should not BRiting the same views.
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Post by ramana »

Acharya wrote:The left is batting as a proxy for some other constituency in India.
I suspect the IMs as was articulated by Seema Mustafa in the Asian Age.
What is real about that articles is the clarity in that article about the 60 years of foreign relations of India and the compromise done by the INC in terms of getting the maximum for the national interest of the country.

Can somebody get all the articles of Seema Mustafa regarding this topic and collate them from MJ Akbar Asian Age

Rest of the nation may not what is being discussed regarding the foreign policy since this has deep implication. But the bigger question is which group want to stall the national security of India just for its own sake.
Here is a link to some of her articles in the Asian Age Archives:

Seema Mustafa's articles
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Post by SaiK »

ramana, should it matter for your analysis (i am not sure, what you are chasing at), Dr. Gopalakrishnan was quoting Asian Age articles for having fought against FBRs being in the list. One of his articles claims so. And, per him, that was the reason AK took initiatives to become the 800 pounder.
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Post by ramana »

Saik< I am trend watcher. I look at the 100k ft view of history so I can spot the changes. When you are at the 100 ft level you get lost in trees and at 10 ft level in the "bushes".

AGK using Asian Age has nothing to do with the message in SM articles. IOW need to read the message and not the messenger.

BTW google cache on BBC reports UPA govt instability
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Post by SaiK »

ramana wrote:IOW need to read the message and not the messenger.
totally.. unless the message is in the messenger him/herself (originator).
time to move into "issue based politics", and reduced tenure govts.
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Post by Gerard »

[url=http://www.hindu.com/2007/08/21/stories ... 200100.htm] “No uranium sale if Australia’s Labour Party wins pollsâ€
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