J&K News and Discussion-2011

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 29 Jan 2011 23:35

I am getting sick & tired of the younger generation of highly educated, "successful" Indians being mis-led by all this secularist and self flagellating propaganda. Last night I was with a bunch of late 20, early 30 somethings, very smart professionals and managers from the Microsofts, Amazons, Googles etc. Discussing veered around to India's economic growth, which is all they were talking about, but I pointed out that the whole thing could be a bubble given that the next TSP sponsored LeT attack is round the corner. To which the universal response was, oh, India is not highly innocent in J&K, India should agree to the "azaadi" demands because thats what is fueliing the "justified" anger bla bla. And BJP is provoking the "innocent" KMs through flag hositing bla bla.

Someone, I believe it was Varsha Bhosle who said that in a way Indians are spoilt, we got our independence too easily without spilling any blood. Hence the current "globalized" generation of young brain-washed Indians have absolutely no clue on what J&K means to India, the kind of assault India is from TSP/USA/RNIs etc. Something needs to be done to reverse this trend.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 29 Jan 2011 23:50

CRams ji.Think of convincing these people as a challenge.It will take time but many of them once they see the evidence they will know the truth.

And yes compared to Vietnam or Algeria we got our independence somewhat easily.Hence we still do not realise its importance.But as Ramana ji says Freedom struggle which is being waged against congress is not over yet.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 30 Jan 2011 00:02

darshhan wrote:CRams ji.Think of convincing these people as a challenge.It will take time but many of them once they see the evidence they will know the truth.

Challenge is an understatement my friend. Its the "I know it all", the self-rightous obnoxious arrogance we are up against.

Anyway, the way I approach this challenge is by telling these morons that relations between nations, national self interest etc, are not secured through absolute morals and mumbo jumbo they hear on CNN and other US media propaganda outlets. So just because majority KMs want "azaadi", and prima facie that sounds so idealistic and obvious that if they don't to stay, allow them to go; but on the contrary, there is nothing ideal, nor is it moral from India's POV to aceede to such demands. I gave them the rather simplistic example that you may not like stopping at a stop sign and view it as infringment of your freedom, but thats the law designed to be in public interest, and you have to respect that, period. Next, I pointed to a few of them one being a Telugu, another Tamil, another UP etc and said, if you accede to KM demands, and the bogus economic growth plummets to 3% after the next LeT attack, each of you guys will be demanding "azaadi" from each other

.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 30 Jan 2011 00:14

Except for the fact that their whine for azaadi has nothing to do with economic status. It's all about RoP. Kashmir is one of the richest and most pampered provinces in India

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 30 Jan 2011 00:51

jamwal wrote:Except for the fact that their whine for azaadi has nothing to do with economic status. It's all about RoP. Kashmir is one of the richest and most pampered provinces in India

Yet our own PSers want to eat this fly with open eye and open mouth . Remove the subsidy and show the iron fist , these summer warriros need to earn their living in winter .

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 30 Jan 2011 01:10

CRams:

The growth rate of India was 3% for a long time but the country was still together. So I don't understand the point of your post when you label the current growth as bogus and predict its falling back to 3% after a LeT attack. In fact when we were growing at 3% there was no LeT attack, and all the years LeT has attacked us we have growing at 8+% rate.

Please reread your posts before hitting the POST button!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jan 2011 01:12

Ok CRS et al, Read the Nightwatch analysis of Egypt in the West Asia thread. And apply the same methods to J&K since 1947 and see things for yourself.

If a hammer is the only tool in the box, then every problem is a nail. The problem is different at every stage.

In 1947 it was external powered (TSP and UK). After that was quelled and loss of territory, it became internal with US support (Sheikh Abdullah with US fed grandiose Switzerland of Asia khwabs). This was neutered by making him a guest in Coonor and new CM Gulam Bakshi.

There was peace and quiet till the late 1980s i.e. end of Cold War. (However if you see US was working on it. In the psy-ops thread I posted a book review on learning "Spoken Kashmiri" from Uty of Illinois published in 1973!) TSP under Zia launched the terrorist phase by trying to replicate the Afghan Jihad in Kashmir. This was defeated by 1995 under Narasimha Rao and elections were held. In 1992 US added to the mix creating Hurriyat with Robin bhenji in charge. The TSP sponsored terrorist activity has been minimized to a large extent by now. The only semblance of opposition is the Geelani faction which is again US sponsored.

Now if you apply the Nightwatch instability analysis to current round since Omar Abdulalh took over its clear the source of instability is Srinagar. He does not have the full confidence of those who are ruling in Srinagar and its they who are orchestrating the current round. BJP Yatra is not a factor in Kashmir Valley where the opposition to Omar is there regardless of what BJP does or does not do.

So if one wants to use the hammer do it on those who are using the separatists and not the separatists who as the interlocutors or even ABV said need to be treated with insaaniyat or humanity.

If we care for Bharat, its those elements trying to undermine legitimate authority, as Omar Abdullah is the elected CM, who have to be neutralized for now.

However this is not to support Omar Abdullah, who is a duffer and relies on dynasty claim than ability to be the Chief Minister.

He will survive or fall on his own merits or lack there off. Meantime we should not let the struggle to bring him down become proxy fight against India and play into hands of outside powers.

This is where clarity is needed.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 30 Jan 2011 02:04

Dipanker wrote:CRams:

The growth rate of India was 3% for a long time but the country was still together. So I don't understand the point of your post when you label the current growth as bogus and predict its falling back to 3% after a LeT attack. In fact when we were growing at 3% there was no LeT attack, and all the years LeT has attacked us we have growing at 8+% rate.

Please reread your posts before hitting the POST button!

And you need to introspect and understand what I am saying before being dismissive and hitting the submit button. Current elite thinking is based on the premise that India is growing 10% bla bla, and one should ot stock the fire of nationalism lest TSP and its valley puppets be upset and start playing spoiler. I was pointing out that if the growth plummets to 3%, such brainwashed fools will then see the importance of J&K.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 30 Jan 2011 02:53

CRamS wrote: And you need to introspect and understand what I am saying before being dismissive and hitting the submit button. Current elite thinking is based on the premise that India is growing 10% bla bla, and one should ot stock the fire of nationalism lest TSP and its valley puppets be upset and start playing spoiler. I was pointing out that if the growth plummets to 3%, such brainwashed fools will then see the importance of J&K.

Brainwashing is mostly related to the secular and anti-nationalistic education system than growth rate. Otherwise all the Indians over the age of 30 or so would be nationalistic and see the importance of J&K since economy then was growing only at 3%, which is not the case.

70% of the Indians want J&K to remain part of India and 50% of the Indian are the under 30! You can see that a very significant % of the 70% actually comes from young people.

Given this extra amount of information, would you reconsider your post?

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 30 Jan 2011 04:58

Dipanker wrote: Brainwashing is mostly related to the secular and anti-nationalistic education system than growth rate. Otherwise all the Indians over the age of 30 or so would be nationalistic and see the importance of J&K since economy then was growing only at 3%, which is not the case.

70% of the Indians want J&K to remain part of India and 50% of the Indian are the under 30! You can see that a very significant % of the 70% actually comes from young people.

Given this extra amount of information, would you reconsider your post?

Although the extra information is correct, still CRams contention stands. The many young who belong to the 70% do not actually constitute people who will be shakers and movers of the society. Their numbers are just that -- numbers. The highly active, advocacy groups and those that move in corridors of powers, that can influence how the society is shaped and how the society is interpreted/presented lies with the small number and overwhelming of whom are know-all seculars.
In short, those that matter are groomed to be seculars. You could have easily witnessed that in previous avatar of this thread itself.

The independence that few Indians got hasn't translated into independence to all Indians. Independence to swallow with fortitude the nonsense dished out by brown sahibs is all that is available to majority of those belonging to 70%. Forget about freedom. It is creeping in bits and pieces, only to take two steps backward.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 30 Jan 2011 05:07

Quintessentially, being secular means one is a class apart from the majority of the mass. That's badge of honour that is used to self-identify as coming of age, and is presupposed to have as little common as possible with the majority. The only association with the majority mass occurs when it is convenient to the seculars.

The majority of the mass is treated with patronage, or treated as uninformed peasants or evoke pity as those who need helping hand. The concept of treating truly with equality is unseen. It is voting democracy and that's about it. Or majority of mass is remembered only when one is required to sacrifice some mothers son to defend their secularness.

arjunm · Post by **arjunm** » 30 Jan 2011 09:56

[quote="RamaY"]People doubt the news reports from on news source while building their entire braincells on similar news and "peer-reviewed" research.

"true Muslims don't kill other Muslims" and "killing of one human is like killing entire humanity" are what come to mind when reading such intellectual bhashans (This verse was completely stolen from Al-Torah, the Jewish sacred book)
.it must be untrue if my mind can't fathom it. This is exactly how those western and middle-eastern intellectuals thought before and are thinking today.[/quote]

When it sharply contradicts there views , rubbishing the credible source with hypothetical prerogatives is the pattern that is repeated thread after thread , so it is better to ignore it.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 30 Jan 2011 10:03

Talking about 8% economic growth, is it possible sustaining the same without river waters from J&K ?

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 30 Jan 2011 10:54

jamwal wrote:Talking about 8% economic growth, is it possible sustaining the same without river waters from J&K ?

Agriculture is a diminishing, and slowest growing of the sectors..However, politically (and in terms of mass livelihood) water is MIGHTY important..And one of the reasons India will NVER agree to a status quo change in J&K...

However, people who fear that India will somehow "give in" on J&K should read Ambassador Schaffer's Limits of Influence...Even in days where every two American Secretary of state could pontificate on the issue, in fact as late as the '90s a one bit Assistant Secretary (Robin Raphael) did it, India never "gave in" anything..We are not lkely to give in something today...

3% growth? In India? Not likely (on a sustained level) for at least 20 more years...The techno-economic-demographic characteristics are too skewed against such a possibility...

It is tempting to extrapolate based on pop psephological conclusions about what the "young Indians" think...But there is no evidence of any support across the political spectrum about anything subsstantive as concessions...the political crowd talk all the time baout things that are wholly symbolic....The fear therefore, political, economic or strategic, is completely misplaced....

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jan 2011 10:56

‘It’s too early for a breakthrough in Kashmir. But the need for a settlement through talks has emerged’

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/-It-s ... ed-/743682

Dilip Padgaonkar:

As far as the first is concerned, these are largely, though not exclusively, in the nature of confidence building measures. We were told particularly by people in the Valley that these included the release of stone-pelters after getting their parents to sign bonds, the release of political detainees against whom there aren’t serious charges, speeding up the trials of undertrials who have been detained for a long time, reducing the intrusive presence of security forces, getting them to conduct themselves with a little less brazenness because the kind of frisking, the kind of checking of ID cards that goes on, creates a huge number of irritants.

...

They have grievances that go back to well before Independence and they feel consistently betrayed by New Delhi--the erosion of Article 370 is something that comes up frequently in our discussions. There is a sense of tremendous alienation. The announcement of our group's appointment was received with a great deal of what I think is perfectly understandable cynicism. There have been interlocutors before us, nothing very much has emerged from their exertions and therefore, we began on a note of deep scepticism. But the big lesson we have learnt in the past four months is that while the grievances of the people of the Valley are far more intense than those of the other regions in J&K, any kind of a political settlement would necessarily have to take into account the grievances of Jammu and Ladakh.

So, the broad conclusion is that in the Valley you get a certain rhetoric about implementing UN resolutions of self determination, plebiscite, independence, etc. This language is alien to the non-Kashmiri Muslims. Now, how do you reconcile these various aspirations? It is a two-fold process.

The first process is to see what kind of a constitutional arrangement has to be there between the state and the Centre. Several commissions have been set up, recommendations have been made, none of them have been accepted either by the state government or the Centre. Then, there is the question, equally important to the people of Jammu and Ladakh in particular, of the internal set-up taking into account autonomy vis a vis Srinagar with their political, economic, social and cultural distinctiveness, their distinctive needs and aspirations. There is also the Pakistan dimension, something we are not mandated to go into.

...

Radha Kumar: There are two or three separate issues involved when it comes to security. One is the immediate issue of trying to prevent human rights violation, maximum restraint, etc. The other is the issue of transition that began a couple of years ago from the Army to the police. That, as you know, is somewhat uneven with CRPF bearing the brunt of it--the police were not in a position to handle the situation very well. The third issue is a part of the political question--demilitarisation. One must bear in mind that demilitarisation, almost always in a peace process, begins with non-state actors first and then moves to the state actors. Demilitarisation becomes one of the elements of the agreement to be implemented after you have arrived at some kind of political solution. Our approach has been to draw some of the lessons from previous attempted peace processes between New Delhi and Srinagar, New Delhi and Islamabad. One major lesson is that in the past we have tended to be a little ad-hoc in the CBMs. They have tended to be CBMs that may sometimes actually be part of an eventual political settlement, not CBMs that have paved the ground towards a political settlement.

...

Manu Pubby: There was a disagreement between the Home and Defence ministries on the feasibility of troop reduction. The Army Chief said we don’t know the scale of the reduction; the Home Secretary said a 25 per cent reduction.

Kumar: There were two reductions, one, over a year and half ago, which was a reduction in the military troops. Possibly two battalion size divisions have been moved out during this period. The other is the 25 per cent that the home secretary has announced. Our impression is that it does relate more to the transition--to handing it over to the police. That’s the focus--most likely, it will be the CRPF reduction.

...

Coomi Kapoor: In these four months, would you say that a breakthrough has been made in terms of a political settlement?

Padgaonkar: Absolutely not, it's too early for something that has been lingering for 63 years--it can’t be settled in four months. What we do have, however, are the first impressions of the way people want us to move. The need for a settlement through a comprehensive dialogue with all the stakeholders on board--including the separatists--is something that has clearly emerged. The second concern is a review of the constitutional relationship between Srinagar and Delhi. There have been five different commissions on this matter. The recommendations by those committees weren’t accepted. More recently, a fifth working group set up by the PM has also come up with recommendations. Meanwhile, there have been some developments.

...

Raj Kamal Jha: Can each one of you mention a few things you have learned or that you now look at differently after four months on the assignment?

Kumar: I have learnt that there is an innumerable number of stakeholders and potential spoilers and I need to make a list of all people that we need to somehow try and talk to. But I also remember that almost in every case, both at the beginning of a peace process and when it appears to be reaching a conclusion, you’ll find the most extreme views being expressed. It is about how you move the momentum forward in such a way that those extreme positions do not control what is happening; they can’t determine success or failure. The trick is, do you have the implementing mechanisms in place that would turn these extremists into eventual power sharers as it happened in Northern Ireland?

...

Padgaonkar: First I learnt that when you are looking for a settlement, to be fixated only on Kashmir would be incorrect. You have to take into account the concerns, the aspirations of all the constituent units. We also learnt a great deal about the goings on as far as the Centre-State relations and autonomy is concerned. And we learnt to explore a little bit of the ideological orientations of the various separatist groups. Some separatists have moved away from a hard Islamic line, and I can mention Yaseen Malik and Shabeer Shah in particular. Both have gone out of their way to reach out to the minorities.

...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jan 2011 11:33

RamaY, Shades of SKC report?

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 30 Jan 2011 13:22

Some separatists have moved away from a hard Islamic line, and I can mention Yaseen Malik and Shabeer Shah in particular. Both have gone out of their way to reach out to the minorities.

just a road show because they have a hard time making a case of separatism based on anything other than setting up another dar-ul-islam.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 30 Jan 2011 16:55

RamaY wrote:People doubt the news reports from on news source while building their entire braincells on similar news and "peer-reviewed" research.

RamaYji, there is not perceptual selectivity here...No police personnel in India can do something like this - service rules will dictate immediate suspension, and then dismissal...So it is quite unbelievable that a bunch of J&K policemen came to arrest BJP leaders carrying "Indians dogs get out" posters...If Anurag Thakur has really seen it, it would be his responsibility as an MP (and a citizen) to report the matter to J&K and Union Home departments immediately...Hence my incredulity...

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 30 Jan 2011 17:23

^^^The interview of Dileep Padgaonkar and Co has an interesting snippet..

The other is the 25 per cent that the home secretary has announced. Our impression is that it does relate more to the transition--to handing it over to the police. That’s the focus--most likely, it will be the CRPF reduction.

Radha Kumar is likely to be right IMO...And the Home Secretary was saying something that would be a standard piece of CI strategy in any case..Barring NE, insurgencies have all been finally tackled by local police...Punjab and Naxal (circa '70s) were tackled by police operations...In Kashmir however, despite 20 years of insurgency, the J&K Police still handles a smal part of the CI duties...That needs to change, and now is as good a time as any, with violence levels at all-time lows...The prime lesson from Punjab, as KPS Gill says so eloquently, was that a Jat Sikh militancy was fought by a JAt sikh police force..A Kashmiri muslim insurgency has to finally be finished by a Kashmiri muslim police force...And intifada style action will get much less attractive once the "opponents" on the street are neighbours rather than CRPF troopers...

The Kashmir govt for long as simply abdicated its responsibility on meeting the CI challenge..It needs to pick it up, and be responsible for what happens under its watch....

To that extent, what the HS said was not part of a "selloff", but a long overdue move!

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 30 Jan 2011 17:36

MJ Akbar on the "yatra" and Kashmir - IMO perceptive as usual..

http://www.mjakbar.org/intoday_thirdeye.htm

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 30 Jan 2011 19:25

JwalaMukhi wrote:
Dipanker wrote: Brainwashing is mostly related to the secular and anti-nationalistic education system than growth rate. Otherwise all the Indians over the age of 30 or so would be nationalistic and see the importance of J&K since economy then was growing only at 3%, which is not the case.

70% of the Indians want J&K to remain part of India and 50% of the Indian are the under 30! You can see that a very significant % of the 70% actually comes from young people.

Given this extra amount of information, would you reconsider your post?
Although the extra information is correct, still CRams contention stands. The many young who belong to the 70% do not actually constitute people who will be shakers and movers of the society. Their numbers are just that -- numbers. The highly active, advocacy groups and those that move in corridors of powers, that can influence how the society is shaped and how the society is interpreted/presented lies with the small number and overwhelming of whom are know-all seculars.
In short, those that matter are groomed to be seculars. You could have easily witnessed that in previous avatar of this thread itself.

The independence that few Indians got hasn't translated into independence to all Indians. Independence to swallow with fortitude the nonsense dished out by brown sahibs is all that is available to majority of those belonging to 70%. Forget about freedom. It is creeping in bits and pieces, only to take two steps backward.

It is not really a matter of the power of advocacy groups or the vocal minority who can "shape" society - in the ultimate analysis it is the direct coercive powers that the rashtra has accumulated, and which have always proved their loyalty to the incumbent irrespective of popular will or grievance. The British while reconstituting the state apparatus and the army - consistently made sure that the state apparatus - the police and the army remained loyal to the "ruler", and it was important for them to do so because they had to ensure subservience to the colonial master who never thought of itself as Indian.

There have been hints and indications that the BIA in India was ready to revolt if the Brits did not hand over power, but the all out revolt never took place in time for us to verify this. Even on thsi forum I have heard open statements from ex-service personnel that the treatment of the captive INA soldiers at the hands of BIA and the question of the "mutiny" in 1857 should also be looked upon as an attitude towards "oaths of loyalty" and military discipline. So it is really doubtful as to how far the upper echelons of the army would really have gone against their British colonial masters. We also know how the lower order's revolt starting from the naval uprising was treated both by the illustrious political leaders of the Congress and the then military and admin regime.

The British systematically disarmed the population, so that the people could never counter the army or the police as and when the rashtra decided to unleash them on the people. The Congress government has maintained that attitude. We shoudl realize that ideologically neither the Congress nor the Left is free from considering coercion as an integral part of the state's functioning and holding on to power.

More than shaping any social opinion, it is the control that Congress and the Left has over the instruments of state coercion [Nehru started early with political appointments to the army command] against a disarmed population.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 30 Jan 2011 20:15

If M.J.Akbar is being consistently "perceptive", then let us look at his perception:

There seem two unhappy options. Nothing can change in Kashmir except atmospherics. Or there is a "settlement" that either dresses up the generational Pakistani demand for the "liberation" of Kashmiri Muslims from "Hindu rule" with fudge; or changes the existing map in Pakistan's favour: try selling the first in the Pakistani bazaar and the second in an Indian mall.

So it all reduces to only two "positive" outcomes apart from status quo. A "settlement" that dresses up the generational Pakistani demand for the "liberation" of Kashmiri Muslims from "Hindu rule" with fudge : now how can that be at all possible? Even if it is "fudged" it means that somehow there has to be a core element of reality of "liberation" of Kashmiri Muslims from "Hindu rule". Akbar does not elaborate on how that can be possible, for just like the politicians in power he mocks - he also cannot abandon ambiguity. Politicians have political power to lose - what does Akbar has to lose? if it is claimed that by "fudging" he means no real "liberation" but a pretense of liberation - how can the modalities of even such a pretense be made out? Further what makes him think that even a fudged up, dressed up "liberation" is acceptable to the Indian public - or since he never mentions the "Hindu" as part of Indian while he freely discusses "Kashmiri Muslim" probably the Hindu Indian or Hindu Kashmiri does not exist for him [or even if they exist they are a minority, so any minority who is not a Muslim does not count to be heard]- so that what the Hindu Kashmiri and rest of "Indian Hindus" may think of such a dressed/fudged up "liberation" does not matter!

Those who do not learn from history, we have been advised, are condemned to repeat its follies. India and Pakistan may be suffering from too much history. Generations change quickly in power; at best they last a decade. Each new incumbent, glowing with good intentions, hallucinates about writing the future on a clean page, and then inlaid stains within the paper seep through and blot the message.

So history should be made irrelevant and less important. Of course it is - for we must forget the history of the record of the glowing intentions of each generation of Paki incumbents - as he himself lays out. At one stroke Akbar is painting both Paki and Indian incumbents as having proceeded from "glowing with good intentions", thereby painting Jinnah [about Kashmir], Ayub, Bhutto, Zia, Musharraf - all as "glowing with good intentions". Naturally we can understand why it is so important to forget "history" because otherwise the equal-equal cannot be made.

Pessimism is boring when you are young, but at least it is not fatal. Optimism can be heartbreaking. Equally, it is arid and pointless to live without hope. So what do we do about this trap that has become coated with poisonous rust? Doing nothing is not an answer.

Maybe what India and Pakistan need in Delhi and Islamabad are not two dynamic politicians but two compulsive and courageous gamblers.

Sure, Jinnah gambled on Kashmir, Ayub did, Bhutto did, Zia did, and finally Musharraf did too. Akbar thinks that Kayani and Geelani are not gambling yet by keeping up the separatists and militants and "pushing in" or armed terrorists? Given that his solution options are only "dressing up liberation of KM from Hindu rule" or redrawing borders in favour of Pakistan, that means he wants Indian political leaders to gamble on handing up one of those two options to Pakistan on a platter - hang with Indian public opinion, which should not matter!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jan 2011 21:03

An observer from dilli uses the Nightwatch report on turmoil in North Africa and compares to J&K. Original from NW and parantheses from observer...

NightWatchFor the Night of 28 January 2011Jordan: Protesters across Jordan called for the government to step down. In Amman, more than 5,000 marched. Demonstrators chanted anti-government slogans, blamed the government for rising prices and called for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai.Egypt: Today was the Day of Rage and so it has been. Roughly an hour after Friday prayers, the demonstrations began in Cairo, Suez and Alexandria, then spread and continued into the night. Buildings were set alight; curfews ignored and the Army moved in. The night closed with President Mubarak's mildly concessional speech which promises to incite the protestors, more than placate them. Expect more confrontations on 29 January.

Special comment: Background. Research and analysis of more than 50 internal instability episodes since 1980, NightWatch has tracked order in what appears to be chaotic security situations. Once internal discontent metamorphoses into a breakdown of public order, the government begins searching for a set of responses that will halt the decline in its fortunes. A government will follow a three-phase cycle in applying different ideas and resources alternately to placate or crush an insurrection or to buy time to try to find "a line it can hold." That phrase refers to a set of actions over an expanse of national territory that will stabilize internal conditions.If the government finds a set of responses that match the protestors' grievances,(GoI's announcements of media savvy interlocutors & their sensational announcements ,govt job recruitment coupled with experienced Police Officers at helm,) the downward cycle can be halted. If not, it will continue until the government falls or is changed (in our scenario we had elements from INC. NC & PDP with common interests in seeing the back of Abdullah Jr. ) usually by the Army, the ultimate guardians of the state.The cycle begins with an under reaction phase of more or less tolerant behavior. This phase almost always begins quietly with increased police presence, but no extraordinary force deployments. In most instances, the anti-government protestors are prone to misinterpret tolerance as weakness or indecision and will escalate demands and attract more protestors and usually looters.When efforts at conciliation fail, the government has not choice but to escalate the security response. Unless the response is well-planned, swift and overwhelming, this overreaction will incite more demonstrations. At that point the government has not choice but to offer concessions so as to gain time for regrouping. The first concession is always people, rather than policies or practices (release of protestors ).Concessions always convey the perception that the demonstrators are winning and invariably provoke more demonstrations. In fact, concessions always start out as sops for the protestors. They do not mean that the government has fallen or that a revolution has succeeded.Once a cycle is complete without improving the situation, the next cycles accelerate and power transfers from the government to the protestors heading towards power-sharing or bypassing power sharing and heading towards revolution.In Tunisia, a single cycle was completed in the past three weeks. The departure of President Ben Ali on 10 January indicated the start of the concession phase, which appears to be continuing. Note the first concession of that government system was the head of state because he lost the support of the security establishment, especially the Army and its leader General Ammar.With Ben Ali's departure, the pace of events has slowed, but it is clear that fundamental change has not occurred. The lack of cohesion, organization and leadership in the Tunis demonstrators enabled the government to stabilize the situation by dumping the president ( similar to APHC internal dynamics + Muftis ambitions ensuring no one else rises ) . That gesture failed to satisfy the protestors so more people have been dumped, but fundamental policies are not changed.The concession phase is slowing blending with under-reaction and transitioning towards another crackdown. Today's efforts by the police to terminate a sit-in protest outside the prime minister's office are an indicator of an under-reaction. The protestors did not depart and the stage is set for more confrontations.In Egypt, a single cycle has run in four days, but President Mubarak is clearly made of tougher stuff than Ben Ali.On Tuesday, the police were tolerant of the political protest gatherings in Cairo. When these escalated and spread outside Cairo, the police used more force and the paramilitary forces showed up in armored cars. Much of that occurred on Thursday and early Friday.On Friday, Mubarak called in the Army after the paramilitary police were swamped by protestors and made his first dump of loyal people. He has thrown his government under the bus, so to speak, dumping people, but not changing policies. His promises of political reform represent promises to do things he was supposed to have been doing all along.Dumping the government, meaning the parliamentary cabinet, will do nothing to satisfy the crowds. The next phase is likely to be a very short period of tolerance of public discontent to confirm that the concession phase failed (fingers crossed on this there's lull & its no good ) and that he has no choice but to crackdown, this time using the Army.On Saturday morning a new cycle will begin for the Mubarak regime, but the situation looks complex, as described below. Things are not as they are reported by western media.Differences between Tunisia and Egypt. The predominant pattern in internal instability is that it begins in the periphery and moves to the center of power. In that sense it is centripetal. The periphery exists in several senses. Geographically, it represents the regions where the government mandate is weakest, usually in remote border regions. Politically, it represents the domain of the disenfranchised and powerless. Economically, it is the pool of those who cannot make ends meet no matter how hard they work.In Tunisia, the disorders began in southern Tunisia, according to well-informed news sources, and slowing spread to Tunis, where the center of power resides. The politically disenfranchised and economically destitute, embodied by the under- and unemployed coalesced and moved to Tunis during a two week period.Climactic action occurred in Tunis with Ben Ali's departure. However, news sources report that little has changed in southern Tunis, providing more indications that a revolution has not occurred yet. The kinetic movement and the geometry make Tunisia almost a text book case of the dynamism in internal instability. ( its in our advantage , thnxx to well established intel network , agitation was stopped from becoming coordinated coupled with ego-centric personalities & timely announcement from Bhatt Sahab of their owns involved in past of eliminating APHC's Lone . It will ensure leadership don't come together providing common platform . ) There are dozens of instances from communist Eastern Europe to Soeharto's Indonesia that follow broadly similar patterns.In Egypt, the dynamics of the action have been much different. The unrest began in Cairo, the center of power and the center of the government's strength. That is so unusual and such an anomaly that that fact alone is a red flag for skullduggery.There is no spontaneity in the heart of the government. No body starts a revolution in the center unless he has cover and high level backing. (no wonder why J&K was the lab ) The government was fully aware of the emerging unrest after the first day. The whole world knew for that matter, but the unrest grew for two days unchecked.The Egyptian security services are highly competent in internal security. They routinely crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, for example, if members identify themselves in public, but not this time.The second major anomaly is that kinetics of the movement. The unrest spread outwards from Cairo to Suez, then Alexandria and other towns, according to press reports. This is centrifugal movement, precisely the opposite direction of spontaneous unrest. Thus having drawn security attention away from Cairo, the day of rage occurred in Cairo and other cities, almost simultaneously. This is shaped, organized behavior.The third anomaly is an inept response despite extensive preparations. Earliest news reports from Egypt confirm that the government had gone to considerable lengths to prepare for today's demonstrations. The disruption of the internet and social networking systems began hours before Friday prayers. Even without the internet and social networking, large demonstrations in the thousands managed to get organized, coordinate and stage simultaneously.The fourth anomaly, which also occurred in Tunisia, is the opposition has no guns, no means of coercion. That is always the signature that the opposition is being manipulated, if not supported, by disaffected factions in the existing leadership.(NC's own leadership problems provided this vital clue ) That is certainly what happened in Tunisia and appears to be the case in Egypt.The paramilitary police and Army armored units were sighted in Cairo hours before unrest surged into the streets. The forces were ready, but did not act effectively or apparently cohesively. This looks contrived. Plus the Army was cheered when it finally moved into the streets of Cairo, Alexandria and Suez.The demonstrators attacked the same set of targets in every city; police stations and local chapters of the government party. Museums and other symbols of the state were actually protected from looters by the demonstrators. That is not what happened in Kyrgyzstan last year, for example. There is an underlying order to what is taking place in Egypt.News commentators have worked hard to try to explain the anomalies without success. The NightWatch hypothesis is that Egypt is not experiencing a revolution so much as a transition to a new leadership. That transition is not complete.Some inside group that has been loyal to Mubarak has abetted this popular uprising. One expert suggested that it has been staged to prevent Mubarak from investing his son Gamal as his successor, in an Egyptian caricature of North Korean dynastic succession ( NC's top is still not not fully behind Jr. Need to keep them in check , gud was Mufti's presence on Republic Day Parade on Jr's side ).The group with the motive, intention and the means is the Army, according to that expert. Indirect evidence supports that hypothesis. The implications are that Readers should expect more street clashes that justify Army intervention, but are surprisingly not bloody. Mubarak will step down after a decent, brief interval.The tradition of military-backed government that Nasser began and Sadat and Mubarak perpetuated will be handed on to a new generation of officers. Prices will be lowered, but there are no jobs.Tunisia: Police attempted to disperse a group of protesters conducting a five-day sit-in outside the prime minister's office. The protestors consider Ghannouchi a holdover from the Ben Ali regime and want him out. The police failed.Hundreds of independent officials will head key Tunisian interior, foreign and defense posts, acting Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi said on state television on the 27th. Abed Karim Zbidi was named minister of national defense, replacing Ridha Grira. Farhat Arrajhi will head the interior ministry, taking over from Ahmed Friaa. Foreign Minister Ahmed Wenniss takes over from Kamel Morjane. This is a temporary government with a clear mission to allow a transition to democracy, Ghannouchi stated, adding the mission is to organize electionsYemen: For the record. After prayers thousands of people protested the government of President Saleh. Saleh let it pass and the protests ended.Correction: In the third paragraph of the commentary following the Algerian entry, the brain thought "containing," but the fingers typed "continuing." "Containing" is correct. Regrets for any inconvenience from a senior moment.

End of NightWatch for 28 January.NightWatch is brought to you by Kforce Government Solutions, Inc. (KGS), a leader in government problem-solving, Data Confidence® and intelligence. Views and opinions expressed in NightWatch are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of KGS, its management, or affiliates.www.kforcegov.com A Member of AFCEA Internationalwww.afcea.org

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Jan 2011 22:09

ramana wrote:RamaY, Shades of SKC report?

Ramanaji, there are quite a few similarities in approach like visiting district head quarters and talking to all sections of people and identifying immediate, near-term, and long-term issues.

I particularly liked the sheer number of reports/statements SKC commission collected and reviewed. I hope this committee does similar thing so it breaks the hold of the few separatists on the issue. To my understanding, this is not happening.

I am also glad to see the legal approaches pursued to address major irritants such as getting the parents of stone-pelters sign a bond before these youth are released. It ensures to two things; that these guys are marked for future and that the rest of the population understands that the rule of law is followed to the T.

Somnath garu,

You are not alone in this worldview. It is a common theme on both sides of the debate; but the difference is that the nationalists are willing to look at sources outside the so-called "peer-reviewed" reports and news items, the liberal section solely depends on them while declaring some news reports as false whenever they do not fall in this worldview. Even the cabinet law minister Mr. Veerappa Moily too showed similar thought process in calling the B.K. Somashekara panel report on Bangalore church attacks while calling for CBI inquiry as if CBI is the pinnacle of honesty, integrity and efficiency. We all know how well it fared in every political inquiry including the infamous Bofors scam.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 31 Jan 2011 09:48

ramana wrote: Kanson, Brilliant analysis. His espousing the separatist causes initially looked perplexing but your explanation fits the events: remove, AFSPA, prevent Indian opposition to raise the flag in Lal Chowk, periodic rants at GOI as if he is not in the UPA.
Rahul baba e al game plan is to have their own running the separatist goons just as sheikh used to till he got fat on the loot and his brother in law Bakshi cut him off.

For uncle Hurriyat is losing its utility and the movement needs to be taken over by more manipulatable folks.

You should concentrate more in strat forum so we can benefit from your thoughts!!!

Thanks Ramana ji, i will try to do. In my view, what is more disturbing is this UPA Gov. which is keen to appoint their 'heir apparent' as PM got three more years along with OA gov to do experiments and catharsis whatever they want.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 31 Jan 2011 11:19

^^^ Omar A IMO isnt doing anything that state leaders dont do in stress situations..Basically, play to the local street...What INC politicians from Telengana (and rest of AP) are doing, or what Amarindar Singh did on the SYL issue (anyone remember?), or what individual TN/Karnataka CMs have done on the Cauvery issue...Or what every single Akali politician did during the heydays of Punjab militancy...State leaders pander to the street of their perceived support...Omar A derives his support from the Kashmiri Muslim constituency...It is thus "natural" that he would try and capture the spearatist space...

Question is whether this is posturing for political space or simply symbolisms...As of now, most of the light and sound has been just that - light and sound...Omar started off the election campaign with "pre 1953" as a starting point...Any progress around that? No...The fact is that more he finds himself inadequate to manage the state, more he will swing to the "perceived" street in Srinagar.

Dhiman · Post by **Dhiman** » 31 Jan 2011 11:37

CRamS wrote: Current elite thinking is based on the premise that India is growing 10% bla bla, and one should ot stock the fire of nationalism lest TSP and its valley puppets be upset and start playing spoiler. I was pointing out that if the growth plummets to 3%, such brainwashed fools will then see the importance of J&K.

Actually sir, the current ruling elite thinking is based on "dhoti shivering." As per this, the excuse is always the same irrespective of the situation. For example, take the following sentence:

"This is a very critical time in India's economic development, so we need to keep things calm."

Now, write a media story around this and publish it in leading newspapers to either delude the public, delude yourself, or both irrespective of whether the "critical time" means 10%, 0%, or -10% economic growth rate. "Dhoti shiverers" will find and excuse not to do something, no matter what the situation is and the ruling elite is filled with them.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 31 Jan 2011 18:59

somnath wrote:^^^ Omar A IMO isnt doing anything that state leaders dont do in stress situations..Basically, play to the local street...What INC politicians from Telengana (and rest of AP) are doing, or what Amarindar Singh did on the SYL issue (anyone remember?), or what individual TN/Karnataka CMs have done on the Cauvery issue...Or what every single Akali politician did during the heydays of Punjab militancy...State leaders pander to the street of their perceived support...Omar A derives his support from the Kashmiri Muslim constituency...It is thus "natural" that he would try and capture the spearatist space...

We can live with when Telangana parts away from AP. Can we do the same if Kashmir parts away from India? That's the difference.

Whatever you do with Telangana is internal and whatever worst happens its between us and we can sort it out but Kashmir is not like that.

Here you are making the notion that all KMs are separatists and i think that is not right.

Question is whether this is posturing for political space or simply symbolisms...As of now, most of the light and sound has been just that - light and sound...Omar started off the election campaign with "pre 1953" as a starting point...Any progress around that? No...The fact is that more he finds himself inadequate to manage the state, more he will swing to the "perceived" street in Srinagar.

The real problem is willing Center(INC & Rahul) to support for all the rubbish he spouts.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 31 Jan 2011 20:10

Before writing I must admit I am for Combined AP.

Comming to Telanaga Sri Krishna committee has submited a second report to Home Ministry which was not made public. It contained security related matters. It seems the same is causing lot of fear in the Home Ministry. Further let us not reduce the risk of Naxals/maoists. With Nepal's fall ( may be reversed) a line of provinces from Bihar, Jarkhand, Chattistgarh and If it some Telangana will be red zones like a dager in the Indias heart. It is already there even before Telangana and only difforence may be if a new state is created it will only give more blackmailing and extorsion money to naxals.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 31 Jan 2011 22:34

brihaspati:

I've seen MJA do some useless equal equal before, but I guess in this latest analysis what he is trying to say is that any "peaceful" denounement requires that "both sides" win or both sides "loose" equally. After all, TSP has not been able to grab the valley in totailty and control is which is their neurotic obsession, but still controls the ground situation with its pigLeTs and Harried rates, while India only has the valley in possesion and that too with a very fragile grip (the flag hoisting episopde demonstrated that unequivocally). Under this status quo, any "peace" deal would have to involve give & take. Thats what MJA is saying, I think, but with a lot of unnecessary equal equal.

But the reality of the situation is that while TSP knows that India, even under MMS/Sonia, is not about to sign the surrender document, but they still feel they have the upper hand and with good reason: Nukes, their puppets in the valley making noises at the drop of a hat, 3.5 support, pliant govt in Delhi loaded with RNIs, and above all a vast majority of Indian public totaly clueless and apathetic about J&K. Their game plan is to a gain stronger foothold in the valley (joint love making) with official international sanction, and eventually knock India out of the ball park with their nuke war strategy. For India, the only "concession" is that all this takes place in slow motion, so Indian public gets drunk with "secularism" and "superpower hood" as the rug is pulled from under their feet.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Jan 2011 22:44

CRS, We shouldn't listen to useful idiots. The Hurriied rats are not TSP tools but US stools. As Kanson pointed out Omar Abdullah faction with Rahul baba help is trying to become the separatist faction to make Hurriyat irrelevant.

After the yatra, Malik and his faction are now sarkari faction.

How can they claim to be separatists, when they accept police protection, chai and biscuits and do their actions under police supervison?

The danger is to listen to well meaning chatterati who could be unwitting agents of losing powers.

I would give 40% chance of an Egyptian dawn in TSP right now.
So giving them concessions now will prevent that.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 01 Feb 2011 01:05

CRamS,
I only wanted to explore MJA's "perceptive" analysis. I have been hammering about the "Northern Ireland" model being foisted - or sought to be foisted - on India vis-a-vis J&K, by baseless and invented similarities. Yes, every step that they take is towards gradually de-Indianize and de-non-Muslim-ize the "valley". Indian politicians, parties, academics or so-called experts who are trying to anaesthetize the public opinion about this - are collaborators of Paki and Paki-backer forces.

In the end, nothing else justifies continued 3.5 support - in the face of overwhelming financial burden and loss, no real economic gain out of Pakistan, - except ideological and religious/racial constructs within the 3.5. If economics drove everything, supporting Pak would have been the first item off the list of 3.5 - for as yet nothing concrete financially and economically has come to 3.5 by supporting Pak. Of course there would be long lectures with ellipsis caliming that not all finacial gains are in "black and white" or obvious, that there are indirect payoffs of geostrategic moves, etc, but never will we have details of those calculations which show that so-and-so of 3.5 gained so much so in dollars by supporting Pak etc. - because almost all of such "calculations" are basically speculations on speculations, and there does not exist such actual evaluations in monetary terms based on which 3.5 "decides" in such political aspects.

Yes they will give up when the financial burden of maintaining Pak becomes too much to justify to their public, but as of now - it is the ideological fondness for Paki brand of Islamism which drives 3.5 actions.

I would build in a lot of speculations and possibilities : China not necessarily remaining so strong economically and socially for the next 20 years, USA virtually going down on a long slow downward curve to a more sustainable post-colonial Brit type framework, regime changes in India [at the rashtryia organizational and ideological level and not just change of parties or leaders], revival of Russia, post-Khomneini Iranian long term trends towards de-mullahization in the Islamic world [a long way off, but it will be inevitable]. We don't consider these options at all when we analyze future of Pak, and I am not just being too optimistic.

The whole of J&K belongs to us, and cultures prior to Islam have a greater claim on the valley. However such claims be ridiculed, the reclamation is going to happen, regardless of what Pakis shout or their supporters within India and among 3.5 demand. We should simply tag the voices which are speaking in favour of Pak, and when the time comes do the needful to see to it that such voices are never raised again.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Feb 2011 01:15

brihaspati wrote: The whole of J&K belongs to us, and cultures prior to Islam have a greater claim on the valley. However such claims be ridiculed, the reclamation is going to happen, regardless of what Pakis shout or their supporters within India and among 3.5 demand. We should simply tag the voices which are speaking in favour of Pak, and when the time comes do the needful to see to it that such voices are never raised again.

This is a key takeout for our liberals on this forum. Every time they subscribe to this nonsense they are supporting the 3.5 friends not Indian interests nor Indian values.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Feb 2011 02:59

Tribune reports....

Chidambaram may visit Jammu on Thursday for discussions
Tribune News Service

Jammu, January 30
Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chief Saif-Ud-Din Soz said here today that Union Home Minister P Chidambaram is likely to visit Jammu on February 3 to hold discussions with Congress workers on certain recommendations of the Centre’s interlocutors.

“ The interlocutors have made some recommendations. I don’t know what they have suggested,but on my request, the Union Home Minister is likely to visit Jammu to know the viewpoint of local party workers”, Soz said, and added that aspirations of all regions and sub-regions would be considered before implementing any recommendations.

Although the interlocutors are likely to give their final report in April, they have been making recommendations and the government has decided to hold discussions with political groups before implementing them.

Soz did not rule out the possibility of a dialogue being held with different groups. “I don’t know with which group the Union Government has been holding behind-the-scenes parleys”, he replied when asked about involving Hurriyat Conference and other separatist groups in the dialogue process for the resolution of the problem. “I do admit that the involvement of the Hurriyat leaders is a must for making the process meaningful ”, he said.

On the issue of rotational chief ministership, Soz said the Congress high command had to take a decision in this regard.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Feb 2011 03:30

CRamS wrote:
darshhan wrote:CRams ji.Think of convincing these people as a challenge.It will take time but many of them once they see the evidence they will know the truth.

That is why you should spend more time in places like Orkut. Seriously, it is a good place to sharpen the swords. You can approach the problem in two ways:
1) Trying to correct these people, and/or
2) Step in to ensure the next generation has the information and are not brainwashed by these folks.*

"Modern", progressive values always appeal to humans. Who is going to say NO to "freedom", "human rights", "liberty", "development", "economic growth", "free market", "less government", "more choices" ityadi? The challenge is to show how dharma encompasses all that they seek and cherish.

I see in some of the Orkut groups, the secular and liberal folks(I do align with these folks, and tend to share several ideas with them) do get carried away and take their points to the extreme ignoring the reality of the situation. So, when one points these out, there are several who agree with the newer points.

Indians, the educated ones at least, are caught between conservatism and liberalism. They ought to be informed thinking in these lines is just restricting their mind. The next level is dharma which straddles/stretches the entire gamut of both streams. It is a tricky task, because the moment one utters the word "dharma" the mind thinks about religion.

Yeah, it is so nice to talk about letting go of J&K, talking about atrocities, plebiscite ityadi. Who talks about the Constitution? Who talks about Pakistan has still not given us back PoK? Who talks about the progress in J&K vs the progress in PoK? Who talks about Indians outside J&K? Who talks about J&K being a State of India and its value to India?

I organize people into two camps "Humans first, State next" and "State first, Humans next". Both are extreme camps; and both thoughts are unsustainable over the long term as they are just not natural (it is against Rtu).

* : Sometimes, it might be better to NOT bang our head against the wall. Spend more time with the future generation than the current generation.

ps: BTW, CNN is still under my boycott list. Stupid network.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 01 Feb 2011 07:12

SwamyG wrote:Who talks about the Constitution?

* : Sometimes, it might be better to NOT bang our head against the wall. Spend more time with the future generation than the current generation.

Till now, the only one who explicitly "refused" to talk about the Constitution was ABV ("Insaaniyat ke daayre mein)!

And the "future" generation (I would take those attending schools as future) if anything is far more confident about themselves and the country than we were/are..(nd we in turn were/are a LOT more confident than our parents generation)...Using pop sociological analysis, that (confidence) means that there is less enthusiasm for violent revolutions...Either internally (vis a vis muslims etc) or for external adventures...Look at the political fortunes of the "right revolutionaries" - most of them struggle to save their deposits...Or look at the narrative in unis (I visit at least some of them quite often) - revolves around a higher destiny, and territorial adventures dont fall within that..

ramana wrote:I would give 40% chance of an Egyptian dawn in TSP right now.

Pak is unliekly to have an Egypt (or Tunisia)..the reason is simple - all the potential variables have been tested out - Army, mullah, Nawaz Sharif, PPP - the works...In the Middle East, for many decades there has been only one alternative, the incumbent..So people can gamble on an alternative...And second, the army is crucial - and it is "out" of the forml equation, giuving it the status of a "tilt" force in these countries...In Pak, Army is THE variable in the equation...The aterntive for Pak really is deja vu - back to Army!

Anindya · Post by **Anindya** » 01 Feb 2011 07:14

Meanwhile from http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110201/j ... 519586.jsp

Sisters shot dead in Kashmir

Srinagar, Jan. 31 (PTI): Lashkar-e-Toiba militants tonight dragged out two sisters from their home and shot them dead at Sopore town in the northern Baramulla district, in the first attack on civilians this year.

Arifa and Akhtar, between 16 and 18 years, were killed by three militants around 10pm at Muslim Peer in Sopore, 52km from Srinagar. It was not known why they had been targeted, police said.

Sopore superintendent of police Altaf Ahmad said a Pakistani was among the killers.

According to preliminary investigations, the three Lashkar militants barged into the house of Ghulam Nabi Dar and dragged out his daughters. “The girls were later shot dead by the militants near the Ziarat (shrine) Rahim Sahib. One of them was shot in the left eye,” Ahmad said, adding their bodies were found near their home.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Feb 2011 07:35

Kanson wrote:Going by the events and statements made so far from the OA & his administration....the plan seems to be...

OA is trying to take over the mantle of separatism from other separatists leaders and covert this into short of sub nationalism and using this as a tool he plans to demand more "autonomy" to rule the J&K as Prime minister/Sheikh with more powers and probably with its own constitution.

Why would he do that? I trust he is not myopic, and understands India and Pakistan to a great extent. Pakistan, after basking in glory for a short time, is going to needle the "territory" as it is doing in Afghanistan. The territory is going to be simmering. He stands more chance, in terms of self preservation, by handling India than any other country on the planet - be it Pakistan, USA or China. For his own good he is best as a powerful entity in J&K within the Indian Union. Now, he has the Indian Union to blame for the takleefs. Once autonomy is given, why would India have a large military presence? If India is still going to have a large military presence, then what good is the autonomy? He is still going to be seen as a stooge of Indian Union. On top of that, he wouldn't even be able to complain. And funds? GoI pumps in money now, so if autonomy is given, why would any GoI give more money to that "territory"? He has to depend on "tourism" from Pakistan.

The only reason he would want what you say he desires, is if he has a giant ego and/or trusts the Pakistani military.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Feb 2011 08:08

somnath wrote: And the "future" generation (I would take those attending schools as future) if anything is far more confident about themselves and the country than we were/are..(nd we in turn were/are a LOT more confident than our parents generation)...Using pop sociological analysis, that (confidence) means that there is less enthusiasm for violent revolutions...Either internally (vis a vis muslims etc) or for external adventures...Look at the political fortunes of the "right revolutionaries" - most of them struggle to save their deposits...Or look at the narrative in unis (I visit at least some of them quite often) - revolves around a higher destiny, and territorial adventures dont fall within that..

Ain't that sad? Quoting Col. Jessep

Col. Jessep: Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinburg? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago, and you curse the marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon, and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.

Well I don't agree with the italics part of his rant, because he is missing an opportunity to explain the nature of things.

So is the case with younger generation in any country, fed on utopian dreams, they march along. "Left wing" or "Right wing" is not going to solve their problems. But probably a hybrid of them - a.k.a Dharama.

A confident gal or a guy, making moolah going to party-varty, attending disco or temples, going to relatives or theatres, being happy with his family needs to have some idea of what it takes to run a big country. Nah,....we do not want everyone to become IAS, IPS, IFS officers. I do not expect them to know the capital of Lithuania, or the form of government in Denmark, the national currency of Chile, the role of a Chancellor ityadi. Let them pursue what ever their passion dictates; but when rubber meets the road on national and foreign affairs hopefully they are better informed. I wouldn't blame them now for their ignorance.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Feb 2011 08:25

SwamyG wrote: Why would he do that? I trust he is not myopic, and understands India and Pakistan to a great extent.

We must judge OA by his actions and performance and by comparing them with his statements.

After his famous "I am a Muslim and I am an Indian" (not the other way around) speech

As the Chief Minister of J&K state, under Indian Constitution
- He failed to support the just needs of Amarnath Yatris.
- He failed to stand firm against the stone-pelting separatist Jihadis, and
- He failed to understand the difference between protecting the honor of the republic and the fragile calm and peace at the whims of separatists.

There is hardly any indication that OA shows humility or represent national interests.