ME wars ..XX: a brave new beginning

[Deans]

Deans, The nuke deal and release of Billion dollars went into the Ayatollah accounts. The people hardly got a trickle down effect.

The Iranian budget is opaque. Certainly a large proportion of money released after the nuke deal was signed, was diverted away from people's needs. Some of it has always gone to the Ayatollahs (Iranians, in my time there regarded them as the richest people in the country). My contention is that of the diverted money, billions were spent on QS's operations in Yemen, Syria and Iraq.
Even so, in the first year of sanctions being relaxed, Iran's GDP increased 12% By contrast, GDP declined about 5% in 2018, likely to worsen to - 10% (negative 10) this year. Iran's per capita income is the same as what it was in 2008

[ricky_v]

Well the majority of the people who polled de-escalation seem to be correct and that is the direction the situation seems headed. Do note that the poll was for a one month timeframe and escalatory attacks may or may not come to fruition. Some points on the poll itself, any poll should have such options that the result is sufficently muddled, to employ 10 options but to see only 7 in play is not good, hopefully the mongerers would provide much practise in the future.
1) 3 had no votes for the longest time: fsa/isis resurgence which i believed would be carried out in conjunction with the arab spring in iran, and the dissatisfaction amongst the masses. I think that the issue here is with the rhythm of the tune and not with the tune itself. The reset to a virtual pre-obama nuclear deal scenario is a slowing of the policy, what would they do if iran states that

we would get nukes any which way, look at saddam and gadaffi

, what would the us do that it has not already been doing, more sanctions?
2) Arab spring in sunni nations missed the sitaution entirely, the lesson of arab spring 1.0 is that it was a slow destabilizing process, to assume that the masses would rebel immediately was wrong on my part.
3) The attack on us positions in afghansitan seemed logical what with the plethora of good, bad taliban, rent boys all, somebody could have created massive mischief. I suppose my own poor understanding of the situation there is to blame.
4) With regards to crudes and refineries:
Iran has a good petrochemical base and it is ever expanding, as it stands, they export these to china, turkey, s.korea, india. Scaling these up, their own refineries output would be utilized effectively, and they would be less dependent on the export of crude as a whole, provided their petchems are not sanctioned. Targetting saudi refineries to destabilize downstream sectors would be effective, but then the us would just plug in the demand. Maybe, that was the plan of the yemeni to take control of "war-oil" crude and sell it on the black market as has always happened, but the iranians stopped that.

[UlanBatori]

Ha! NOW they are voting for #7. UBCN voted 7 when everyone was kurta-shivering about WW3.

[ramana]

Anyhow the poll reflected the BRF was truly ahead of the curve.

Still a month lets see.

[John]

Continuing the discussion Overall it was pretty pathetic showing by Iran;
- Leaks that allow Qassam and other deputies to get killed
- Poor planning of funeral that killed over 60 in stampede
- Reportedly poor coordination between Air Traffic controllers and military that lead to shoot down of their plane
- Trying to cover it up when every Iranian is busy tweeting pics of the crash and crash site which confirmed it is a shoot down
- Having good deal of missiles fall short of target reports for some of them are nearly fully intact which means US and Israel Intel would get great understanding of their missile program

[brar_w]

Multiple news outlets reporting that USAF/DOD has intel on Surface to Air missile launches with IR data, including IR track of missile(s) exploding as well, in addition Air Defense radar being turned on and/or operating in the vicinity were also picked up. Iran is unlikely to share blackbox with Boeing or any US entity but it is probably possible to analyze the last minutes of the aircraft in Europe, Canada or somewhere in Asia.

[ramana]

John, I bet the 4 missiles that failed could be the early vintage non separating warhead models.
brar_w, During the MH-370 investigation it was revealed the jet engine mfgs get continuous update from the engine sensors. Lets wait to hear if any data was analyzed. That telemetry if it shows sudden ending could be secondary evidence of the ADS mistake.

[brar_w]

Continuing the discussion Overall it was pretty pathetic showing by Iran;
- Leaks that allow Qassam and other deputies to get killed
- Poor planning of funeral that killed over 60 in stampede
- Reportedly poor coordination between Air Traffic controllers and military that lead to shoot down of their plane
- Trying to cover it up when every Iranian is busy tweeting pics of the crash and crash site which confirmed it is a shoot down
- Having good deal of missiles fall short of target reports for some of them are nearly fully intact which means US and Israel Intel would get great understanding of their missile program

And the tracks. There were Patriot radars in Baghadad, and the TPY-2 in Kürecik. Either or both would have had a pretty good look at some if not all of those 16 or so TBM's. Missile tracks, and RV signature profiles would be invaluable in updating models and threat libraries. It seems Christmas was slightly delayed for a few folks at Huntsville . Contract modifications to Northrop Grumman over the next year or so would be interesting to watch out for (they make most of the target missiles).

[John]

Multiple news outlets reporting that USAF/DOD has intel on Surface to Air missile launches with IR data, including IR track of missile(s) exploding as well, in addition Air Defense radar being turned on and/or operating in the vicinity were also picked up. Iran is unlikely to share blackbox with Boeing or any US entity but it is probably possible to analyze the last minutes of the aircraft in Europe, Canada or somewhere in Asia.

Iraqi Intel already is saying it was shot down they likely got that from Iranians. Still not sure why Iran is trying to cover it up only makes them look even more amateurish.

They would have actually had good deal Of support from the tweeters if they had come out and said immediately they shot It down accidentally because they detected a US stealth drone or something which was in vicinity.

[brar_w]

A yet to be verified video is doing the rounds that possibly shows a SAM launch and explosion. A few media outlets have picked it up for further analysis. Could possibly point to something if properly geolocated, and if it is determined to be new and relevant.

https://twitter.com/Roman_012/status/12 ... 9997448195

Multiple news outlets reporting that USAF/DOD has intel on Surface to Air missile launches with IR data, including IR track of missile(s) exploding as well, in addition Air Defense radar being turned on and/or operating in the vicinity were also picked up. Iran is unlikely to share blackbox with Boeing or any US entity but it is probably possible to analyze the last minutes of the aircraft in Europe, Canada or somewhere in Asia.

Iraqi Intel already is saying it was shot down they likely got that from Iranians. Still not sure why Iran is trying to cover it up only makes them look even more amateurish.

They would have actually had good deal Of support from the tweeters if they had come out and said immediately they shot It down accidentally because they detected a US stealth drone or something which was in vicinity.

Also, serves as a big caution in analyzing air-defense capability by looking at systems procured or produced and overlapping SAM rings and coverage as some sort of proof of a very dense and capable air-defense network (without factoring in how well it is integrated, and the training factor). In the fog of war, IFF and CID are critical and often highly problematic. As is command and control, decision authority and cross-agency coordination. This was a short range system most likely..but the problem is compounded when you are dealing with very long ranges and in a countermesures environment (opponent deliberately trying to make it hard for you to target).





Canada is calling it a shoot-down based on intel obtained via both its own intelligence and from outside...

Trudeau: Evidence shows Iranian missile downed Ukraine plane

TORONTO (AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday evidence indicates an Iranian missile downed a Ukrainian jetliner late Tuesday and that the strike “may have been unintentional.”

Trudeau says Canadian and allied intelligence supports that. He declined to get into the intelligence.

Earlier, U.S. officials said it was “highly likely” that an Iranian anti-aircraft missile downed the jetliner, killing all 176 people on board. They suggested it could well have been a mistake.

At least 63 Canadians were on the plane. It crashed just a few hours after Iran launched a ballistic attack against Iraqi military bases housing U.S. troops amid a confrontation with Washington over the U.S. drone strike that killed an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general. At least 62 Canadians were among the 176 dead.

[Y. Kanan]

The difference between the Shia and Sunnis when it comes to fighting is the willingness of the Shia to achieve matyrdom.

Certainly no shortage of Sunnis eager for martyrdom. Witness ISIS, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Kashmir, India itself. Sunni Islamists have historically (last 200 years) been our primary antagonist. Pakis are Sunni, of course.

Iranians represented the last best hope to keep Sunni Islam from completely taking over the faith. Now the Shias are going to become deeply radicalized, too.

[John]

John, I bet the 4 missiles that failed could be the early vintage non separating warhead models.
brar_w, During the MH-370 investigation it was revealed the jet engine mfgs get continuous update from the engine sensors. Lets wait to hear if any data was analyzed. That telemetry if it shows sudden ending could be secondary evidence of the ADS mistake.

Iran by doubling down on denials basically makes them look foolish (is Baghdad bob advising them?) and only makes other airlines jittery about flying there. Europeans are starting to turn on them with european airlines banning all the flights till investigation is complete. This will go down in history how Iran could come out of ahead from this skrimish with US (could have kicked out US forces from Iraq and got sympathy from leftists around the world as a victim) but blew it badly..

https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-tehr ... ht-status/

[Deans]

Certainly no shortage of Sunnis eager for martyrdom. Witness ISIS, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Kashmir, India itself. Sunni Islamists have historically (last 200 years) been our primary antagonist. Pakis are Sunni, of course.

Iranians represented the last best hope to keep Sunni Islam from completely taking over the faith. Now the Shias are going to become deeply radicalized, too.

Our (and the western world's) main antagonist is certainly Sunni Islam. A lot of India's Shia population is a lot more moderate. There is a lot of militant Sunni Islam as you rightly mention. My point is that when it comes to war and if pushed to a corner, the Shia shows a greater willingness to be a martyr.
Deliberate martyrdom (e.g. suicide bombers) by Sunni's is a relatively recent thing - 9/11 being the best known. If, hypothetically, there is a US invasion of Iran, the US will face far more suicide attacks than they faced in say the Sunni triangle in Iraq or in Afghanistan.

[Vikas]

John, I bet the 4 missiles that failed could be the early vintage non separating warhead models.
brar_w, During the MH-370 investigation it was revealed the jet engine mfgs get continuous update from the engine sensors. Lets wait to hear if any data was analyzed. That telemetry if it shows sudden ending could be secondary evidence of the ADS mistake.

Iran by doubling down on denials basically makes them look foolish (is Baghdad bob advising them?) and only makes other airlines jittery about flying there. Europeans are starting to turn on them with european airlines banning all the flights till investigation is complete. This will go down in history how Iran could come out of ahead from this skrimish with US (could have kicked out US forces from Iraq and got sympathy from leftists around the world as a victim) but blew it badly..

https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-tehr ... ht-status/

Eventually the narrative which would prevail is what western press and media would report which would be dutifully picked up by most of the MSM around the world.
If Iran accepts that they accidently shot down a civilian airliner, It would not make them look any smarter and airlines would shun Iran like a Plague ridden dog.
Iranian Mullahs prefer a state of constant friction with US/Israel/KSA otherwise local Abdul would go back demanding basic amenities of life at a decent price. They don't have friends around, Only Interest seekers including Iraqis and Syrians.

[Karthik S]

Our (and the western world's) main antagonist is certainly Sunni Islam. A lot of India's Shia population is a lot more moderate. There is a lot of militant Sunni Islam as you rightly mention. My point is that when it comes to war and if pushed to a corner, the Shia shows a greater willingness to be a martyr.
Deliberate martyrdom (e.g. suicide bombers) by Sunni's is a relatively recent thing - 9/11 being the best known. If, hypothetically, there is a US invasion of Iran, the US will face far more suicide attacks than they faced in say the Sunni triangle in Iraq or in Afghanistan.

Doesn't the word "assassin" come from shia sect? Read somewhere that during crusades, they'd consume hash to calm nerves may be, and then indulge in assassinations of their enemies, they were called hashashins or something, the world assassin comes from that.

[Vikas]

I think this discussion on Shia-Sunni is more of comparison between the two sects. When it comes to India, No one has shown any mercy or moderation.
Back to ME wars, any news on what is the status of Yeman wars ? With Iran under threat and watch, Would Houthis still receive material support from Iran and Friends ?

[Deans]

Doesn't the word "assassin" come from shia sect? Read somewhere that during crusades, they'd consume hash to calm nerves may be, and then indulge in assassinations of their enemies, they were called hashashins or something, the world assassin comes from that.

Yes, they were Ismaili - a sect of Shia Muslims, based in Iran.

[amitverma]

Israel has bombed pro-Iranian militias on Syria-Iraq border
8 members of pro-Iranian Iraqi militia killed in an airstrike in Syria

Israel reportedly attacks Syria-Iraq border, thwarts shipment of Iranian ballistic missiles


Posted in West Asia News and Discussions thread also

[Deans]

Israel has bombed pro-Iranian militias on Syria-Iraq border
8 members of pro-Iranian Iraqi militia killed in an airstrike in Syria

Israel reportedly attacks Syria-Iraq border, thwarts shipment of Iranian ballistic missiles


Posted in West Asia News and Discussions thread also

The problem with Soleimani was that he tried to do too much. Israel would not have done anything about his activities in Iraq, Yemen or Syria
as long as he did not try to finance Hamas and Hezbollah and supply missiles to Hezbollah. Taking on Israel not just made him a powerful enemy, it cost Iran money they would ill afford to spend.

[ramana]

He also did quite a few things in Indian Subcontinent.

All these came together.
Just see what's happening

Rouhani is talking to Delhi.
Iran FM visiting Delhi.
Quetta blast took out Taliban and ISI leaders.
IN carrier taskforce in Gulf.

[schinnas]

The IN carrier task force in gulf seems to be a measure against Cheen Paki joint naval exercises as much as its a protective measure if things escalate in the gulf.

[UlanBatori]

V r believing the story from Israel that they hit only because missiles were being brought in to target Israel. Why has Israel been treating ISIS war wounded in IDF hospitals - and sending them back into combat? (fairly reliable sources on this have appeared in the media - in fact from visitors to the facility). Also, there is some reason to believe that Syrian Moderate Child Beheaders were being trained - not by "US" in Jordan, but by (YY) special fauj next door. Not that this makes sending ballistic missiles over into Israel a good idea, but it suggests that Israel would attack Syrian because... they can.

[UlanBatori]

The IN carrier task force in gulf seems to be a measure against Cheen Paki joint naval exercises as much as its a protective measure if things escalate in the gulf.

Just curious, don't shoot! How does sending a carrier become a "Measure against" friendly neigbors (I mean friends between themselves) conducting bissful parties? What exactly is the Carrier to do? Make them shiver in their kurtas seeing all the aphsars lined up on the deck railing in their white ducks?
Always wondered about this. The only thing I can imagine is to listen in on the radio chatter and electronics, but if u send ur CARRIER, the reverse is the danger, hain? Why not send Mark 200 dhows with microphones/ directional receivers and sonar and whatever listening devices instead?
Maybe to barge in demanding like Good Fairy in Snow White:
WHY was I not invited?

Because.. if indeed the Joint Exercise is a prelude to war, u r making it ***VERY** convenient for them by putting your prime assets far from ur own shores out of reach of help either way.

[Deans]

The IN carrier task force in gulf seems to be a measure against Cheen Paki joint naval exercises as much as its a protective measure if things escalate in the gulf.

Just curious, don't shoot! How does sending a carrier become a "Measure against" friendly neigbors (I mean friends between themselves) conducting bissful parties? What exactly is the Carrier to do? Make them shiver in their kurtas seeing all the aphsars lined up on the deck railing in their white ducks?
Always wondered about this. The only thing I can imagine is to listen in on the radio chatter and electronics, but if u send ur CARRIER, the reverse is the danger, hain? Why not send Mark 200 dhows with microphones/ directional receivers and sonar and whatever listening devices instead?
Maybe to barge in demanding like Good Fairy in Snow White:
WHY was I not invited?

Because.. if indeed the Joint Exercise is a prelude to war, u r making it ***VERY** convenient for them by putting your prime assets far from ur own shores out of reach of help either way.

I'm sure we'd have a sub and a couple of P-81s snooping about the exercise area. To avoid any incident where (for e.g) our sub may be detected and attacked, protocol is to inform Pak that we are having an exercise in the area.

[UlanBatori]

That's different. Perfectly OK. Have aerostats in the area playing "Amar Sonar Bongla" at full blast. In fact conduct the Mushy Myoosick Bhestival in the vicinity. Have a 100 dhows flying the Balochistan flag coincidentally sail serenely through the area.