2021 Five State Elections

[Kati]

Two 'Bhaijaans' have given Mumtaaz Banoo nightmares.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcEUW8pWgFE

[Primus]

And Primus et al:

https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/1 ... 24897?s=19

Let's await 2 May 2021.

Can't wait....... it will be stupendous. The most fertile land in the world, for which so many wars have been fought, so many millions of Hindu lives lost, will finally be under Dharma once again.

Yes, I've seen the interviews with experts on JD, seat by seat analysis of phase 3 was quite revealing. This is as important as UP in 2017.

[AshishA]

Yes, I've seen the interviews with experts on JD, seat by seat analysis of phase 3 was quite revealing. This is as important as UP in 2017.

Which channels are showing seat by seat analysis of phase 3?

[Sanju]

Yes, I've seen the interviews with experts on JD, seat by seat analysis of phase 3 was quite revealing. This is as important as UP in 2017.

Which channels are showing seat by seat analysis of phase 3?

I believe Primus ji was referring to the JD (Shri Sanjay Dixit's Youtube channel) episode linked in the previous page.

[hnair]

Here is my assessment to a private group:

Interesting.. but aren't the ordinary EJs & Catholic Abduls impacted at all by love-jihad ? Do these factions have any tacit understanding with Jihadis ?

Sorry for the late reply. The EJs and Vatican oriented believers are not free thinkers. They take their cue from a non-Indian heirarchy and hence wont open their mouth on love-jihad issues, unless their non-Indian religious superiors give clear directions. Right now there is no such direction.

The eastern-oriented churches of Kerala have their own top guy, residing and presiding in Kerala. Marthomite, the most independent minded of them all has its supreme head of the sect sitting in the city of Thiruvalla and is rather unfortunately called "Primate". The Orthodox has factions and both has its spiritual HQ at Kottayam and their most important pilgrim center at Parumala. Same with Jacobite faction, who hived off the Orthodox and has a running battle with them ongoing over church properties.

Here is a good diagram from wiki, about the historical factionalism of the Kerala churches (but does not include EJs, since they started sprouting more recently and is not an offshoot of any existing ones):



But to make things easy:
- Whatever is suffixed or has "Catholic" is NEVER going to align with BJP and the leadership is tightly controlled by Vatican bureaucracy using a combination of international postings for the elders and sops like academic institution management positions. They will probably go to the unbelieving Commies, if Cong cease to be in power in Kerala. Infact they already are moving slowly to left since 2019 Lok Sabha, particularly the latin version among the coastal fishing communities.

- The rest are mostly older Eastern churches with minimal European influences and have imbibed a lot of Indian characteristics, out of which the Jacobite faction hates the current Kerala Govt for siding with the other side (orthodox) in implementing court orders and is openly aligning with BJP during the local body elections a few months back in December. Even among the orthodox/jacobite/marthoma factions, there was always a bit of support for BJP even in the 1980s. Back during those early days of BJP (there used to be an offshoot called Hindu Munnani, who stood for elections) we used to campaign for a candidate called Dr Rachel Mathai, who had the blessings of her church to contest. Also the late bureaucrat Dr Babu Paul was one of the most prominent supporter of BJP, even when in service.

Now on to the EJs:

Targeting older Kerala churches: When it comes to hollowing out the older Kerala churches, the EJs are like viruses in their propagation and there are not easily discernible hierarchies to target back. They insert their DNA into above list of existing churches (including vatican-oriented ones), convert the sick, weak and emotionally challenged into their sect and drain the church off its patrons, resulting in collapse of the existing order. Their targets are mostly rich, old and lonely but also actively court the poor with sops to generate the soul-harvest numbers. There are many ageing (wealthy) parents who felt abandoned by their children who migrated or is in another city. Then there are those who need social support, which the existing church clergy ignore unlike olden days. In the olden days, the older church clergy used to take care of these, when they were struggling to appear cooler than the upper caste Hindus etc (longer story ). But with rising power and pelf, they stopped caring for their laity and the EJs quietly move into that space for the kill. The EJs send already converted and brainwashed folks from similar backgrounds to the soul targeted for re-harvest, which are these vulnerable folks of older churches and give them company/relief etc. That is right - some of these vulnerable only need social contact, due to the loneliness caused by migration of Kerala's younger folks. I have heard of bitter family feuds between children and parents, when the RoL children return from far lands on vacation and find their parents turned into raging EJ zombies and in since cases have even turned over inheritance to the EJ.

Targeting vulnerable segments of Hindu society The other side that EJ has always been targeting are the classic conversion demographic, the disgruntled socially and economically struggling communities among Hindus. There the approach is entirely different - it is nowadays 100% about "raising self-esteem", because modern India has made the original EJ argument that caste oppression is permanent and economical, with implementation of job reservations etc. So they latch on to a topic that needs some introspection by all of us - participatory temple administration. The insertion team of EJs point out some vibrant local temple to these gullible folks and tell them they might be allowed into it nowadays, but wont be allowed to run them. They are right - a lot of these temples are run by familial networks and is predominantly uppercaste run. So the EJs provide an offer that cant be refused. Why dont we setup a prayer hall here and allow your thoroughly useless and academically uninspiring son to be its pastor? Usually they target the mother of the worst performing kid in the neighborhood and work with her to get the kid to utter biblical mumbo-jumbo (no one gives a shyte about clarity etc) in the prayer hall. That kid becomes "pastor" and slowly gets respected by those who come for prayers (and the free food). The kid becomes a bit of a legend (turned a leaf with help of EJs) and is "one among us, who earned respect". Ergo, EJ = good. From then on the kid will do all the work, so he can get his sustenance. Soon he will pull off the same shyte with some other gullible mother-son duo and form a pyramid. Another form of viral propagation

Summary: EJ in any part of India is NEVER going to allow BJP or the RSS to screw around with their game, even if it means RSS has explicitly said they want priests from all castes. Because it will cause their game of "bringing self-esteem to the neglected Hindu" to fail. Figuring out a way to challenge their model of propagation is a strategic need

[hnair]

Sachin, dont know if you were following a bold new gent in BJP called Sandeep Vachaspati? Full disclosure: I had raging difference of opinions with him over chai, but had to salute his amazing feat: the pulling down of the commie-knicker at their Punnapra monument When the usually arrogant CM himself said it hurt their feelings, it provided an excellent counter questions "what about the feelings of Ayyappa-bhaktars whom you trod over?"

A bit of background about him: Other than the fact that Youtube is awash with videos of him dynamiting Left debaters on TV talkshows, he is specifically called up by Shree Amit Shah, whenever he comes on Kerala trip as his personal translator. I was very happy when he was given the Alapuzha seat and when he spectacularly imploded a Smiling Buddha under the arse of CPI-M, I was rolling with laughter.

He earned a lifetime supply of free chai-kadi from me for sure.

In general, I am happy with the seat allocation done by BJP. Glad the central leaders listened to well-wishers and not just the stupid faction leaders of the state. My favorite grass-roots BJP leader Asha Nath, about whom I have posted in December, was given Chirayinkeezh constituency and from reports on ground, did a stellar campaign (although I dont know her chances). The other candidates in the city of Trivandrum were decent too. No candidates like that clown Sreeshanth got plopped at the last minute. But the sure shot (and last time sole seat for BJP) of Nemom is in a bit of a tizzy, due to the Cong plopping in Muralidharan, who has good caste connect. Added to that, the first-time BJP MLA, O Rajagopal has turned out to be a grade A useless prick and in the last few months, has been foul mouthing his own party to the delight of political opponents<facepalm> He hardly did anything for Nemom.

[AshishA]

From what I have discerned, BJP is following a template in winning over states where it has no power. The template is this. First start harassing or wooing the important leaders in the ruling party of that non BJP regional party. Mainly those that are known for their organizational skills, strategy making skills and have influence over large number of MLAs. These guys are typically 2nd in command, important ministers and the guy that party depends on to win. I believe they start wooing that guy with lots of rewards if he crosses over. And if that guy has any aspirations to become CM or likewise and has been denied the opportunity or sidelined in favour of dynasts etc etc, those faultlines are exploited to the max and if that doesn't do it then starts the harassment. They send their ED, CBI, NIA, etc combo package and give him a no choice offer. The CM or party leader of that non BJP state sometimes tries to protect them but most of the times they are left on their own against the central agencies. And at last they join BJP and start influencing other MLAs and MPs of the ruling non BJP party to defect. They understand local conditions/sentiments better and have a desire to win. That's how Himanta Biswa Sarma and Subendu Adhikari joined BJP and that's how instrumental they were in making BJP a force to reckon with in that state.

This is being implemented in many states and has worked beautifully. They tried this in Odisha. They tried to get a important MLA to crossover. But they failed. Before that guy could crossover to BJP, that guy was in jail and his reputation was destroyed. BJD destroyed this MLA by first arresting his future son-in-law's father on the day of the MLA's daughter's marriage. The groom's father, an Indian forest service officer, was thrown in jail for huge corruption and unexplainable assets. Then son-in-law went to jail due to falsely advertising himself as a manager in Tata. A media witch hunt was created for these guys. And eventually the MLA was sacked from BJD, arrested on a whole lot of cases and then thrown in jail. And now even BJP could not associate with this guy publicly because the amount of beating his image had taken. And even they couldn't defend or bail him out.

[Narad]

Who could be the possible turncoat for bjp in Kerala?

[Karna]

From what I have discerned, BJP is following a template in winning over states where it has no power. The template is this. First start harassing or wooing the important leaders in the ruling party of that non BJP regional party. Mainly those that are known for their organizational skills, strategy making skills and have influence over large number of MLAs. These guys are typically 2nd in command, important ministers and the guy that party depends on to win. I believe they start wooing that guy with lots of rewards if he crosses over. And if that guy has any aspirations to become CM or likewise and has been denied the opportunity or sidelined in favour of dynasts etc etc, those faultlines are exploited to the max and if that doesn't do it then starts the harassment. They send their ED, CBI, NIA, etc combo package and give him a no choice offer. The CM or party leader of that non BJP state sometimes tries to protect them but most of the times they are left on their own against the central agencies. And at last they join BJP and start influencing other MLAs and MPs of the ruling non BJP party to defect. They understand local conditions/sentiments better and have a desire to win. That's how Himanta Biswa Sarma and Subendu Adhikari joined BJP and that's how instrumental they were in making BJP a force to reckon with in that state.

This is being implemented in many states and has worked beautifully. They tried this in Odisha. They tried to get a important MLA to crossover. But they failed. Before that guy could crossover to BJP, that guy was in jail and his reputation was destroyed. BJD destroyed this MLA by first arresting his future son-in-law's father on the day of the MLA's daughter's marriage. The groom's father, an Indian forest service officer, was thrown in jail for huge corruption and unexplainable assets. Then son-in-law went to jail due to falsely advertising himself as a manager in Tata. A media witch hunt was created for these guys. And eventually the MLA was sacked from BJD, arrested on a whole lot of cases and then thrown in jail. And now even BJP could not associate with this guy publicly because the amount of beating his image had taken. And even they couldn't defend or bail him out.

Himanta Biswas joined after been humiliated by congress. Same goes for Jyotiraditya in MP. TMC leaders jumping ship now means the ship is sinking. BJP has been in power for 7 years now, TMC leaders started leaving few months before the election.

[Karna]

Club house discussion with Prashant Kishore .

https://t.co/BCAQGuVfOB

[Kati]

From what I have discerned, BJP is following a template in winning over states where it has no power. The template is this. First start harassing or wooing the important leaders in the ruling party of that non BJP regional party. Mainly those that are known for their organizational skills, strategy making skills and have influence over large number of MLAs. These guys are typically 2nd in command, important ministers and the guy that party depends on to win. I believe they start wooing that guy with lots of rewards if he crosses over. And if that guy has any aspirations to become CM or likewise and has been denied the opportunity or sidelined in favour of dynasts etc etc, those faultlines are exploited to the max and if that doesn't do it then starts the harassment. They send their ED, CBI, NIA, etc combo package and give him a no choice offer. The CM or party leader of that non BJP state sometimes tries to protect them but most of the times they are left on their own against the central agencies. And at last they join BJP and start influencing other MLAs and MPs of the ruling non BJP party to defect. They understand local conditions/sentiments better and have a desire to win. That's how Himanta Biswa Sarma and Subendu Adhikari joined BJP and that's how instrumental they were in making BJP a force to reckon with in that state.

This is being implemented in many states and has worked beautifully. They tried this in Odisha. They tried to get a important MLA to crossover. But they failed. Before that guy could crossover to BJP, that guy was in jail and his reputation was destroyed. BJD destroyed this MLA by first arresting his future son-in-law's father on the day of the MLA's daughter's marriage. The groom's father, an Indian forest service officer, was thrown in jail for huge corruption and unexplainable assets. Then son-in-law went to jail due to falsely advertising himself as a manager in Tata. A media witch hunt was created for these guys. And eventually the MLA was sacked from BJD, arrested on a whole lot of cases and then thrown in jail. And now even BJP could not associate with this guy publicly because the amount of beating his image had taken. And even they couldn't defend or bail him out.

So far it worked well for Assam, Tripura, and Odisha. It is now working very well in WB.
However, I worry much about the flood of other wild animals entering the saffron fold, and wielding an disproportional amount of influence and power. This has demoralized a good chunk of "Old guards" of the state BJP, and RSS is voicing concern for this.
Let us see how things evolve after May 2nd.
Now BJP looks poised for taking over the reign, and Mumtaaz Banoo is going ballistic in every rally. It will be a game changer for the rest of the country, as people from Jagan to Power will flip on a dime after May 2nd.

[Kati]

If BJP loses some seats which could have been won easily in urban / semi-urban areas around Kolkata (in Howrad and Hooghly districts) then it would be the candidate selection.
In a few seats there is a good amount of resentment among the old guards.

[Kati]

WB Phase-4 voting will take place tomorrow, and it will cover these seats in Howrah and Hooghly districts.

[vijayk]

sunetra choudhury @sunetrac
It really is 'all roads lead to Bengal' for the BJP. BJP MP from western UP Sanjeev Balyan ( seen here) also working there, so are dozens of union ministers.
https://twitter.com/ani/status/1380474874418712576

[Kati]

This is incredible.
AS is undertaking door to door campaign in Bhawaipore - once Mumtaaz Banoo's pocket borough before she shifted to Nandigram.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Snn0EW8Gjog

[vijayk]

This is incredible.
AS is undertaking door to door campaign in Bhawaipore - once Mumtaaz Banoo's pocket borough before she shifted to Nandigram.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Snn0EW8Gjog

He is eating at the house of a party worker. Not even pretense of any big deal.

When pappu goes and eats with some lowly Indian, whole scum media is there is to photograph him and advertise in million publications

[mappunni]

Club house discussion with Prashant Kishore .

https://t.co/BCAQGuVfOB

Basically looks like a white wash for PK in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal!!

[Karna]

Club house discussion with Prashant Kishore .

https://t.co/BCAQGuVfOB

Basically looks like a white wash for PK in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal!!

Tamil Nadu looks tough by all accounts. Bengal is looking like a whitewash. Haven't come across any pollster who is giving it to TMC . Each phase it seems gets better and better.

[Kati]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkSMQsUeJUo

Illegal Bangladeshi voter racket exposed.

[Philip]

Listen to Sub.Swamy on New X. Once a week.He pulls no punches.Says BJP is making a mistake by taking on defectors.
In TN,one joker defected and within 24 hrs. was given a seat much to the dismay of veteran BJP cadre. I've always maintained that the BJP should develop their own leadership not take in riff-raff disgruntled politicos from other parties,esp. the Congress. Let those parties stew in their own juice from dissension. This way,the BJP will not be contaminated by the chicanery corrupt culture of some other parties . Let it be true to its ideals ,the voter will appreciate such a principled stand.

Bengal is going to be a litmus test for future polls,TN and Kerala will see the BJP bite the dust. Karnataka too in the future if leadership after Yeddy isn't established now.

[arshyam]

How can you grow good leaders when you don't have any? One way is to groom potential candidates and give them opportunities to demonstrate. But without any political power, how will anyone demonstrate their leadership? Yes, they can grow a local following, but won't be able to jump to a higher level without a leg up. So it's a catch-22. Also, just grooming good candidates is a long term strategy that may not work everywhere - BJP took, what, 45 years to become a political force in its own right? Sometimes, like in WB, you have to exploit the situation to the hilt if you get an opportunity as it may not come again later. It will definitely not wait till you have grown good leaders. So, at such a point, some "lateral hiring from the industry" should be done. No way around it. But the trick is to not hire so many outsiders that your own culture changes, but get only enough to take your organization forward, and grow your own leaders who'll now have the opportunity to demonstrate their skills. Yes, there will be some heartburn inside the tent, but it is the right strategy in the long term - these in-house talents can be given opportunities once political power is won.

Swamy, smart as he is, is the perfect example for not being able to grow an organization. If anything, his is the opposite example of de-growth: his rump Janata Party was pretty much a one-man show going nowhere till he merged with the BJP. And to think this party was in power at the centre!

[vijayk]

https://mobile.twitter.com/vivekagnihot ... 3182787587
In a Clubhouse chat of Dumbest Journalists of India, Prashant Kishore enlightens them with the news that BJP is winning West Bengal.

[arshyam]

Why this clear throwing in the towel, and why now? Introduce complacency among voters in the remaining phases?

[chetak]

Why this clear throwing in the towel, and why now? Introduce complacency among voters in the remaining phases?

the fact that the recording was being done was not known to the whorehouse oops clubhouse participants.

this assessment and admission of failure gives credence to TMC's rumoured requirement to lose "respectably".

the writing was already on the wall many months before the elections. Only the scale and intensity was undetermined then.

there will be an orgy of violence before things normalize, starting on counting day. The cops may well stay silent spectators, not knowing their own futures

The BJP will file cases in bengal and will also prosecute vigorously because the TMC is a political orphan and they will be made an example of before 2024.

derek no brain is much more quiet these days.

BTW, should mumtaz depart, the commies are expecting a much more conducive atmosphere to facilitate their own revival and consolidation.

The jehadis will once again find common cause and rediscover a natural affinity with the commies to float a common opposition against the Hindus

They must be put down with an iron hand.

[Karna]

Why this clear throwing in the towel, and why now? Introduce complacency among voters in the remaining phases?

May have an opposite impact. Voters may vote enmass knowing BJP is winning without any fear of blowback from local TMC goons. Hence, AS has been very local to state BJP is winning in each phase to motivate the cadre

[Karna]

Why this clear throwing in the towel, and why now? Introduce complacency among voters in the remaining phases?

the fact that the recording was being done was not known to the whorehouse oops clubhouse participants.

this assessment and admission of failure gives credence to TMC's rumoured requirement to lose "respectably".

the writing was already on the wall many months before the elections. Only the scale and intensity was undetermined then.

there will be an orgy of violence before things normalize, starting on counting day. The cops may well stay silent spectators, not knowing their own futures

The BJP will file cases in bengal and will also prosecute vigorously because the TMC is a political orphan and they will be made an example of before 2024.

derek no brain is much more quiet these days.

BTW, should mumtaz depart, the commies are expecting a much more conducive atmosphere to facilitate their own revival and consolidation.

The jehadis will once again find common cause and rediscover a natural affinity with the commies to float a common opposition against the Hindus

They must be put down with an iron hand.

TMC is non cadre based party. So the vaccum will be filled by cpm. Hopefully 10yrs of BJP development should nip them. India cannot prosper with out kolkata

[nvishal]

The civil violence in WB is crazy. Same thing in kerala. The common denominator in both states is leftism traditions. TMC and Left probably share the same voter base.

[Haridas]

Composite info graphics of seats in phases and 2019 lok sabha votes

https://twitter.com/HaridasKukkur/statu ... 35809?s=09

[Tanaji]

When BJP wins in Bengal, PK must be reminded time and again of his promise to quit.

Why does this guy keep finding so many high profile job assignments? Barring the one with Modiji he has failed in every single one and even the one with Modiji would have been more to do with RSS than this guy...

[Kati]

Total five have been killed today, including four TMC party workers shot dead at Mathabhanga (Coochbihar district, north bengal) by the central forces after the TMC goons tried to snatch firearms from the CISF jawans.

Mumtaaz Banoo is going ballistic on this latest incident claiming that AS conspiring against her regime/party. However, Coochbihar SP has given a statement on camera stating the gravity of the situation, and CISF took to shooting in self-defense.

[vijayk]

DeSi Motu
@DesiMudi
·
3h
Replying to
@ExSecular
Why the leak now ??

Phases 3,4,5 are the most critical phase for Mamata as her vote bank density in these areas is maximum being border areas, the PK chat leak is deliberate.

The strategy is to make Hindus complacent and not to go for voting while polarizing MusIims and others

[Kati]

Share it with max number of people: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-Sn98QcA4k

[sudarshan]

Why this clear throwing in the towel, and why now? Introduce complacency among voters in the remaining phases?

Their strategy is schizophrenic. First they conclude that they should demoralize voters, by pumping up their side. Then they panic and try to make voters complacent by pumping up their opponents. Like being in a little boat, yanking the tiller this way, then that, trying to get away, when the boat is being systematically ripped apart and pulled down by a giant squid. The 8 phases being the 8 arms.

The voters these days are doing their own thing, maybe this demoralize/ make complacent strategy worked in the past. Nowadays the result, whichever way it goes, seems to be independent of all this propaganda and manipulation.

[Anujan]

Or there's an internal fight and people are knifing each other and shifting the blame

[Vips]

Why this clear throwing in the towel, and why now? Introduce complacency among voters in the remaining phases?

the fact that the recording was being done was not known to the whorehouse oops clubhouse participants.

Chetakji that is hard to believe. Even ordinary folks who goes on any conference calls or audio video calls knows that these calls are audio/video recordable. Someone who is like PK would always be under the default assumption that there are Mikes recording him for any useful sound bites.

[chetak]

the fact that the recording was being done was not known to the whorehouse oops clubhouse participants.

Chetakji that is hard to believe. Even ordinary folks who goes on any conference calls or audio video calls knows that these calls are audio/video recordable. Someone who is like PK would always be under the default assumption that there are Mikes recording him for any useful sound bites.

Then it's a devious ploy to lull the opposition and make them think that strenuous campaigning efforts can be relaxed and all need not vote, since it's already in the bag, so to say

your explanation is very plausible because almost all present at that "secret" vartalab were presstitutes and on the make

[kvraghav]

I think this to bring in complacency among bjp voters. The voilense is also for the same purpose to make bjp voters think it might not be worth the voilense since bjp is already winning. Unlucky for them, CRPF opened fire.

[suryag]

Philip ji the DMK candidate dr.saravanan is a doctor and according to available reports has dine a lot of good work including numerous free heart surgeries for children. According to the same reports the DMK district in charge and the said Dr. Didnt get along well.as he had opposed the sand mining and it is for this reason that he was denied a ticket and he jumped ship. It is assessed that he has very good chances winning on BJP ticket.

I believe annamalai, murugan, khushboo, vanathi, satavanan, gandhi have very good chances to make it. Let's see. EPS/OPS definitely gave BJP a raw deal when it came to the seats, they got very difficult ones and may be it is ADMK strategy to not let grow BJP much.

[fanne]

Bengal it is 18/31 (now numbers are not as good as phase 4). This was supposedly tough phase for BJP

where are you guys getting these numbers from?

any idea on TN and Assam?

Assam is in the bag, no idea about TN. And btw TN has been a nightmare for any psephologist even in the past.

[fanne]

We are moving towards 200+ territory in WB!!