This write up is from
Lt. Gen P R Shankar and all credits are due to him. I took some notes which I found useful and hopefully for the rest of us in BRF
Much of this is material culled from Chinese (origin in China) translated to English.
No communist country has been rich, because the moment people become rich then communism vanishes. If CCP were to survive then Communist China cannot allow rich people outside CCP to thrive. This effectively requires keeping the people non-rich for the CCP to continue its rule. Therefore Emperor wants poor people in a rich country like China.
Turning our attention to the various party congress edicts the following major guidelines occur:
18th party congress (Oct 2012 under Hu Jing tao)
. Opening (China's market) and reforms (privatization)
. Reunification
. Market principles
. Development
Achievement:
. major progress in reform and opening up
. reform of state-owned enterprise deepened
. reform of non public (i.e. private) sector of the economy registered sound growth
. the country's modern market system and macro-regulatory system have been steadily improved with reforms in finance & taxation, banking, prices, science & technology, education, social security, medicine & pubic health and public institutions. The open economy reached new heights with import/export volume ranking #2 in the world.
. Advancing China's reunification, peaceful in the best interest of the nation, including Taiwan.
Key Takeaways:
. persevere in reform and opening up
. apply the spirit of reform and innovation to all aspects of governance
. keep improving the socialist market economy
. adhere to basic state policy of opening up to the outside world
19th party congress (Oct. 2017 under Emperor)
. New era, china has arrived, rich and strong
. Chinese dream
. Rejuvenation
. Unbalanced development
. Common prosperity
. State control
what happened due to KungFlu/Covid:
. common prosperity
. wolf warriors
. lock down
. dual circulation
. property, Edu tech and fin tech (all faced problems)
what is dual circulation:
. dual circulation strategy cuts dependence on overseas markets and technology in it long-term development
. China will rely on internal circulation - domestic cycle of production, distribution and consumption for its development, supported by innovation and upgrades to the economy and consumption.
. Emperor noted that internal circulation will be supported by external circulation
Other happenings:
. Chinese wolf warriors ramped up their rhetoric
. 3 red line held back property developers - cap on debt in relation to cash on hand, value of assets and proportion of equity in business
. Edu Tech and Fin Tech drawn back due to fear of data and its control
In 2017 Emperor did this on his own:
. amended the constitution
. incorporated the Emperor ideology on socialism thereby elevating himself on par with Mao and Deng
. cemented his path to third term
Achievement:
. historic juncture in china's development
. china has grown rich, stood up and become strong. Bright prospects of rejuvenation.
. Chinese wisdom and approach to solving problems facing humankind applauded
. national rejuvenation is greatest dream of the Chinese people.
. work towards promoting common prosperity due to contradiction: unbalanced and inadequate development for people's ever-growing need for better life
. foster new type of international relations and build a community with shared future for mankind
. Chinese dream can be realized only in peaceful international environment under stable international order. China will continue its efforts to safeguard peace and global development and uphold international order.
. break administrative monopolies and preclude market monopolies.
. great rejuvenation of Chinese nation
Key Takeaways:
. both China and world in the midst of profound and complex changes
. china stands tall and firm in the East
. China in an important period of strategic opportunity for development; the prospects are bright but the challenges are severe
. China applied a new vision of development and developing a modernized economy
Emperor reiterated:
. keep to the path of socialism
. uphold the people's democratic leader
. uphold the leadership of CCP of China
. uphold marxism-leninism and Mao Zedong's thought
20th party congress (oct. 2022 under Emperor)
. security
. military
. chinese dream
. rejuvenation
. state control
. dark clouds
. black swan and gray rhino
. economy back seat (admission of reality)
Some new things in 20th party congress:
. security
. military
Other terms were introduced like Strategy/Strategic, Struggle, Risk, Challenge. Hong Kong and Taiwan became talking points. These culminated in the following summary:
. Dark warnings of looming threats for China
. China is entering a period of strategic opportunities, risks and challenges
. China is facing drastic changes in international landscape especially attempts to blackmail, contain, blockade and exert maximum pressure on China
. China's challenges include a sluggish global economy and regional conflicts and disturbances
. warning of black swan (unforeseen/unlikely events) and gray rhino (obvious high impact threats that are neglected)
. external attempts to suppress and contain china may escalate at any time
Leads to the following:
. prioritization of security
. a new section devoted to national security
. countering sanctions, stockpiling of food, energy resources and ensuring supply chain security
. cooperation replaced by a less ambitious term of positive interaction
. peaceful coexistence is becoming difficult especially with US
Emperor changed to the following:
. emphasis on quality rather than pace of economic expansion
. willingness to accept sacrificed growth as steep price for national security
. previous party goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2020 or doubling the size of economy by 2021 was not re-emphasized
Emperor started a cult propaganda:
. 3 stages of people's republic or trio of 30 years
. Mao up to cultural revolution
. Deng era up to Jiang and Hu 2012
. Emperor era
. started pre history writing
. created 2 establishes: core leader of party, ideas and guiding principles of China's future development
. create 2 safeguards: core status within party and centralized authority over China
These things caused the following:
. some people lack confidence in socialist political system. Laws were being ignored or not strictly followed.
. misguided patterns of thinking: money worship, hedonism, egocentricity, historical nihilism. To much rife and disorder.
. system for safeguarding national security was inadequate. Capacity to respond to major risks were insufficient. Many shortcoming with national defense and military
. Institutions and mechanisms for implementing policy of one country two systems in Hong Kong and Macao not well developed and posed a grave threat to national security
. many were worried about future of the CCP and this caused many to flee to other nations
China is now facing dilemmas:
. how to reduce debt while maintaining growth
. how to reduce energy intensive production while the economy continues to rely on heavy industries
. how to get markets to exert financial discipline while govt tries to strengthen state control
. how to restrain galloping wealth inequality while relying on private sector to generate wealth
. how to encourage private sector innovation while cutting down large successful private enterprises to size
. even if no crises materialize there is the looming demographics crisis, high debt levels and an inefficient financial system that will constrain China's growth
What is China doing:
. china replaced property sector investment into manufacturing investments.
. manufacturing sector is in slump with no international demand. Many manufacturing items are at over-capacity.
. pharma, automotive, electronic are in slump. photovoltaics and lithium battery have overcapacity. China is hoping global demand picks up in these areas.
. china is adding 2500 km of High Speed Railway. HSR is running at only 50% utilization nationwide.
. china is retrenching workers in manufacturing sector. Many are going back to their villages.
. China purged many top leadership in many areas citing anti-corruption, rules broken, etc. The military has seen many high profile people in rocket force summarily dismissed.