Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

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harbans
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by harbans »

I am talking about a healthy combination of mechanized agriculture, food processing industry, renewable energy, and service oriented economy in required balance.
RamaY Ji, i do know you are not talking about those rural Grameen Rojgar yoyna type schemes. But i'm also talking doing exactly what you want above done in small towns and village. Th problem is that the money earners are not in the villages. They are in your urban towns, centers, building Malls, real estate, roads, stadia, airports, ports, damns..every other India shining block buster major project you can think is employing somewhere around 250-300 million people all from rural areas spread out, specifically from naxal infested areas. If a large infrastructural project has a breakeven period of around 10 years and it pays 100 Rs a day to a labourer whereas the same Glass and Steel project in US pays 50 Dollars and hour to it's own with a gestation period of 11 years, it's logically the right time for India to increase the minimum wage paid to those who are building the shining India infra.

That increase in wage directly translates to ...
a healthy combination of mechanized agriculture, food processing industry, renewable energy, and service oriented economy in required balance.
. That increase in wage will enable the laborer to educate his kids better and lead to better demand for all what you want. The solution thus may not lie in going to small towns and villages and somehow hope to build there..but by paying better those who are working and allow them to make their choices and invest. Most people including many rural development experts assume Village and small town folk are sitting on their haunches and waiting for Yuvraj to bring in schemes like NREGs..ironically they are right there amongst the shiny steel and glass infra.. :mrgreen:
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

Some interesting stats on employment intensity of various sectors and industries..

This is on manufacturing
http://www.icrier.org/pdf/WorkingPaper236.pdf

And on the broad macro sectors
http://www.teamlease.com/images/India_L ... _Paper.pdf

As one can see, strpping out tobacco (its a special case, and not scalable at all), agro industries have a labour intensity nearly half (0.4-0.6) of that of construction (1)...And scalability of agro is also an issue..Most importantly, most agro-based indutries are located in cities/industrial parks, not in villages - there simply isnt enough infrastructure to do that in villages (there are some exceptions, like the ITC plant in Munger, but they are rare)...Therefore, agro-based industries do not really stop migration...Big daddy of all, you generate double the jobs per dollar in construction than you do in agro-manufacuturing...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Chinmayanand »

Finally, India beats China in growth sweepstakes
It’s official! India’s growth in 2010 was a notch higher than that of China. According to data from the IMF, India’s GDP grew 10.4 per cent in 2010 versus China’s 10.3 per cent. And if projections by official agencies are anything to go by, China is looking at a 7 per cent growth in the Twelfth Plan period (2011-15) compared with India’s 9 per cent. This is the first time that India’s growth has overtaken that of China, since the latter initiated reforms in the 1980s, a decade ahead of India.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Singha »

^massive loss of face at that miscalculation. someone in beijing is going to do hard labour for this.

meantime http://www.timescrest.com/coverstory/sm ... -leap-4186

Small towns, big leap

Avijit Ghosh | December 4, 2010



Who would have thought 10 years ago that Amritsar would have greater mall penetration (per thousand population) than Delhi;that Vittorio De Sica's arthouse classic 'Bicycle Thieves' would be shown at an international film festival in Yamunanagar;that the Indian cricket team would be captained with such distinction by a Ranchi boy? Indeed, who would have thought that small towns would be so integral to India's growth narrative? But is that the full picture? Amidst soaring real estate prices and mushrooming super-luxury car showrooms, there's also a lament for a vanishing way of life - a time when you could just drop by at a friend's place. TOI-Crest brings you the story of small-town India 2. 0 and what it has lost and found in transition


Revolution has many colours. But at the Adidas shop on Delhi Road in Rohtak, it's white. Middle-aged farmers from nearby kasbahs and villages drive in SUVs and ask for the priciest pair of white sneakers. "They hardly bat an eyelid before shelling out Rs 9, 000, the maximum for a pair, " says Durgesh Sharma, who manages the store. The colour matches with their time-honoured all-white outfit: kurtapyjama and pagri. And as they pay the bill, many also pick up a trendy deodorant, a new-millennium substitute for the traditional ittar.


Five years ago, says Sharma, Rohtak was home to just one big shoe store that stocked most wellknown brands. That was then. "Now you have separate stores for Adidas, Puma, Lotto, Reebok, Woodland, Liberty and many more. Even Nike is coming shortly, " he says. It isn't that this small town in Haryana, about 70 km west of Delhi, has been seized by a sudden shoe fetish. Struck by a tsunami of desires, Rohtak is simply enjoying its affair with hedonism. At least 100 super luxury cars - Mercedes, Audis, BMWs - parade its narrow roads. "I have three Mercedes, all different models, and a white colour Audi, " says Kamal Mittal, who deals in Maruti cars.


When the Mittals opened the town's first automobile showroom back in 1992, they sold about 45 cars every month. That number has climbed to 250. Now Tata, Hyundai and General Motors have set up shops adding to that figure;Toyota, Honda and Skoda are coming soon. A fortnight ago, Mayank Agarwal opened his Mitsubishi Motors showroom. He already has three Pajero bookings. "Nobody wants a car jo sabke paas hai, " he says.


And that's just the tip of Rohtak's urge to splurge. At Sheela Cineplex, where the cheapest ticket is Rs 100 and the costliest Rs 200, middle-aged matrons soaked in Bvlgari walk in with Terra handbags. In the evenings, kids shoot pool and gun down terrorists playing Counter-strike in gaming parlours. The town's young and restless cannot wait for March next year when Rohtak, famous for rewari and gazak, will gets its first multiplex mall, Merion Sky, where they can chew on Domino's Pizza and down Baskin Robbins ice-cream.


Another mall, Sheetal Lifestyle, is ready to take off. And IIM. Yes, the original Indian Institute of Management is all set to have its Rohtak edition. Scholar's Rosary, a preparatory school for kids, is fully airconditioned. City walls show study-abroad posters. "Earlier, we went to Delhi for a slice of the good life. But now, Delhi has come to Rohtak, " says Mittal. Rohtak is emblematic of what's happening to the happening side of small-town India. Says Gurcharan Das, columnist and author of India Unbound: "Small towns were always centres of substantial business. But the growth in GDP and middle-class income has led to an explosion of volumes. In the 1960s and '70s, Indians were hypocritical about money. We loved money but nobody wanted to admit it. "


Now the hypocrisy has gone. Consequently, many in Tier II and Tier III towns have dumped their squirrel-like stashing mentality for serious spending. Nothing is an excess anymore. Shopkeepers observe that brand consciousness is at an all-time high. Those who have arrived want to announce it with a super luxury car, a designer wedding or a dream holiday. Sociologist Yogendra Singh explains, "The brand consciousness is arising from a rising contact between city, small town and village. There is a leveling of lifestyles. More media penetration has created new psychologies of consumption. A new value system has taken birth. "


Back in 2008, the R K Swamy/BBDO guide to market planning had named 25 district towns ranging from Erode in Tamil Nadu to Sangli in Maharashtra, from Sangrur in Punjab to Alappuzha in Kerala (Rohtak too was one of them) as emerging markets of consumption, thereby fuelling India's growth narrative.


The growth, though, as Singh points out, isn't proportionately distributed among all classes. Far from it, a substantial percentage is either left untouched by it or has emerged worse off. But many with economic muscle and social pedigree have also adroitly located themselves in the sweet spot of emerging opportunities.


In May 2010, Ernst and Young (E&Y ) released a report titled, 'The new market shehers: Tapping the potential of emerging markets'. For the purpose of the report, India was divided into four categories: top six metros, 22 key urban towns (KUTs) or Tier II towns, 39 rest of urban India (ROUI) or Tier III towns and rural India. The cities and towns were classified on the basis of population, affluence level and growth potential. Some of the key urban towns were Pune, Chandigarh, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Ludhiana, Cochin, Vijaywada, Vizag and Nagpur. Among the 39 rest-of-urban-India towns were Aurangabad, Allahabad, Gwalior, Bhubaneshwar, Moradabad, Rohtak, Faizabad, Hasan, Shimla and Shillong.


The findings are revealing. Between 2006 and 2008, the growth in the number of malls in key urban towns (55 per cent) was twice that in metros (24 per cent). In 2008-09, sales of refrigerators and washing machines registered growth rates in KUTs and ROUI that were almost double the rate in metros.


The E&Y study also provides insights into consumer behaviour. In Surat, it says, women surprised retailers and manufacturers with "their adventurousness in trying out new things and their willingness to pay large amounts for beauty treatments and products. " Beauty treatments such as age correction, body sculpting and removing skin imperfections have become increasingly popular there.


It's no surprise, therefore, that the industry is putting its money where the moolah is. According to 2007 industry estimates, about 30-35 per cent of the urban advertising expenditure was spent on KUTs and ROUI. Now they potentially command 40-50 per cent of the expenditure. Samsung's dealership network has increased from branch offices in 20 towns in 2007 to 50 towns in 2008. Skoda has increased its marketing budget for non-metros from 25 per cent in 2006 to 40 per cent in 2009, the E&Y study says. Simply put, the research suggests "an uptake in the consumption of premium brands and services in KUTs".


Within the big picture of liberalisation, every town has its own specific reason for its growth: some have benefited from the establishment of small industries, others have flourished as BPO hubs, some have profited from their proximity to a metropolis.


Saloni Nangia of management consulting firm Technopak adds that the consumption uptake is partly spurred by small-town middle-class women working outside homes. "This has improved their quality of life, given them financial freedom. They decide much of their own lifestyle spends, " she says.


Nangia also points out that with real estate and labour being cheaper, many MNCs have shifted to small towns. Rohtak, for instance, has gained from being Haryana CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda's town. About 5, 500 acres of land was acquired around it to set up an Industrial Model Township. Integrated townships - Omaxe City and Sun City - are coming up. "In the past one year, land rates have doubled, " says Jitesh Gupta of Omaxe. The rural elite benefiting from the boom are the ones who want the white Adidas shoes and the Pajeros. They are the driving force behind Rohtak's romance with conspicuous consumption.


The insatiable hunger for more cuts across regions. Aurangabad, in north-west Maharashtra, wasn't satisfied buying 150 Mercedes-Benz worth Rs 65 crore;builders, industrialists and others have come together to book 101 BMWs. All the cars will be delivered in January, 2011.


Even smaller, wannabe towns that have escaped the attention of management consultancy reports have discovered ways to gorge and indulge. Ask Ishita Swaroop. Her company 99labels. com sells firang fragrances, handbags, lingerie and watches online and 32 per cent of her buyers come from towns like Jorhat, Jammu, Hajipur, Sambalpur, Dimapur. There's Ranjan Kumar (name changed on request) from Chandausi who recently bought Bwitch lingerie for his wife online - "I enjoy ordering intimate apparel for my wife without discomfort, " he says - and Julia Manchong (name changed) from Guwahati has bought perfumes from D&G and Police.


But the need to flaunt greed is only one side of the small-town growth story. Those who are yet to join the gravy train are working hard at it. Das narrates a story that illustrates the small town's fibre. "I did a Bharat darshan while working on India Unbound. In a Tamil village, I met a 14-year-old named Raju, who served tea and coffee at a wayside dhaba. In the evenings, he was learning computers. He confidently told me that he had found the secret of success - learn Windows and 400 words of English. His hero was Bill Gates and he wanted to be the richest man in the world. Raju reflects the spirit of small-town India: hunger, ambition, a willingness to work hard. "


Fulfilling that ambition now appears accessible. The expansion of media, including the recent growth of the DTH industry, has democratised experiences and aspirations. Aditya Swamy, channel head, MTV India, found this while interviewing contestants for the channel's Roadies show. The Tier II town lads, he says, are not short of social confidence in any way. "They dress the same way, use the same gadgets, consume the same net content. There is a homogenisation of young people. Only the small town guys have a hunger to prove themselves more, " he says. One edition's winner, Ashutosh Kaushik, ran a dhaba in Saharanpur. A majority of MTV's Facebook community belongs to Tier II towns. As Nangia says, "City and small-town India are on the same page now. "


This has caused, as Singh says, "a blurring of identities. " Today, the term 'small town' is perhaps explained by what it is not: it is neither metro nor hinterland. Marketing survey categories such as Tier II and Tier III towns fail to fully decode their mindscape, their soul. Even within small towns, there are hierarchies of population, economics and mentalities. But though they are in different stages of development, in different moments of history, most are united by a common desire for the good life. The binge isn't just a reflection of a nouveau riche behaviour;it is also an indicator of how middle India has been liberated from its past, from the Hindu rate of consumption.


Which is why towns that once swore by grandmother's pickles and maa ke haanth ka khana (food cooked by mom) are now enjoying eating out. Towns like Allahabad and Kota are saying 'I'm loving it' to new McDonald outlets. And Jalandhar and Patiala are feasting on aloo da tikki burgers. "About 70 per cent of our new outlets are in Tier II and Tier III towns, " says Rajesh Maini of McDonalds. Similarly, Nagpur, that once boasted of only Soaji (spicy Nagpuri cuisine) joints and highway dhabas is now biting into Subway sandwiches, sipping cappucino at Cafê Coffee Day. And that's when it is not in the hookahjoints. The first mall, Landmark, came in 2003. The number has gone up to eight, four with multiplexes where young girls try out Revlon and Maybelline. Three more are in the works.


The truth is that middle-class Indians love to shop. As Das points out, "Even in our hypocritical socialist days, the few who went abroad and who had money were famous for shopping till they dropped. There has also been an austere, Gandhian streak in our society but it was always an aspiration, limited to a few. Today India is a consumptiondriven economy and this is also a part of the small-town ethos. "


The question is: In a country with so many versions - India Shining, India Invisible, India Ignored - can the small towns, driven by an expanding moneyed class in them, in nearby mofussils and villages, continue to flourish as growth hubs? Or will the larger contradictions bring them down?


Amit Mitra, secretary general, Ficci, believes that just as the future of economic reforms lies with the states, the future of consumer and knowledge products lies with small towns. "The challenge for small towns would be overcoming the limitations of urban planning and civic facilities. If these aspects are taken care of, small town will be big for business for long, " he says.


Das sums it up succinctly: Small town 2. 0 is a crucial part of India 2. 0.


With inputs from Deepender Deswal in Rohtak, Falguni Banerjee and Vaibhav Ganjapure in Nagpur

Top six cities now contribute a mere 27 per cent of urban consumption;the share of key urban towns or Tier II towns and rest of urban India (Tier III towns) is now 73 per cent Around 50 per cent of high-end TVs are sold outside the metros UFO Moviez, the country's largest digital theatre chain, has more than 1, 000 screens across India. Of these, 80 per cent are in Tier II and Tier III Towns


Social networking site Bigadda gets roughly 50 per cent of its registered users from non-metro cities. Almost 60 per cent of Bigadda's page views come from such cities


Gaming arrived rather late in smalltown India. But already gaming portal Zapak's 40 per cent gameplexes are in non-metros According to Planning Commission in 2007, the government pledged 29 billion dollars to make Tier II towns economic hubs by 2014


Source: Ernst & Young's May 2010 report titled, 'The new market shehers: Tapping the potential of emerging markets'
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Arjun »

somnath wrote:Some interesting stats on employment intensity of various sectors and industries..

This is on manufacturing
http://www.icrier.org/pdf/WorkingPaper236.pdf

And on the broad macro sectors
http://www.teamlease.com/images/India_L ... _Paper.pdf

As one can see, strpping out tobacco (its a special case, and not scalable at all), agro industries have a labour intensity nearly half (0.4-0.6) of that of construction (1)...And scalability of agro is also an issue..Most importantly, most agro-based indutries are located in cities/industrial parks, not in villages - there simply isnt enough infrastructure to do that in villages (there are some exceptions, like the ITC plant in Munger, but they are rare)...Therefore, agro-based industries do not really stop migration...Big daddy of all, you generate double the jobs per dollar in construction than you do in agro-manufacuturing...
The data seems outdated...As per the latest data, food processing ranks first in employment potential per unit dollar of investment.

Food processing & beverages creates highest jobs per Rs 10 lakh

http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Food-processing-beverages-rank-first-in-direct-and-indirect-employment-ASSOCHAM/4801200943

See in particular the second link for why construction does not generate as much employment as food processing.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

^^The assumptions behind the analysis need to be checked....Especially the entire set of assumptions behind "backward linkages", leading to indirect employment, which is where a whole lot of "double counting" occurs...

The ICRIER report is vintage 2009, and the latest data on employment is anyway the NSSO large sample 2004 (which is used)....And on these issues, ICRIER is a far more credible source than an industry chamber...Net net, the report needs to be studied to arrive at conclusions on a like-to-like basis...

Here is another analysis of employment elasticities across sectors..

http://eac.gov.in/aboutus/chspe/art_revisit.pdf

There is no doubt generally that agro-processing has potential..Question is how long it will take for the ambeint cirumstances - infra, funding, marketing all to come together..Given the rhetoric-to-execution ratio, I am not so sanguine...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by svinayak »

Dot-Coms Begin to Blossom in India
By AMOL SHARMA
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 11556.html

BANGALORE—India, home to a legion of talented software engineers, has had a surprisingly undeveloped Internet economy: The nation has the lowest Internet penetration rate among major emerging markets and very little online commerce.

Now, that's beginning to change.


India, home to a legion of software engineers, has very little online commerce. That's beginning to change. Sachin Bansal, cofounder of Flipkart.com, says he wants to turn his e-commerce site into the "Amazon.com of India."

A host of Indian Internet companies are emerging to offer their take on services that proved big hits in the U.S. and elsewhere. There are firms vying to become India's version of Amazon.com, Groupon or Expedia, all with the goal of capitalizing on Indians' growing interest in buying things online.

The Indian start-ups, including online bookseller Flipkart.com, electronics retailer LetsBuy.com, and discount site SnapDeal.com, are growing quickly and are attracting financing from big-name Silicon Valley venture investors like Sequoia Capital and Accel Partners.

Internet penetration in India is finally showing signs of picking up. The country had 71 million Internet users as of 2009, the latest data available, representing just 5% of its population. But current estimates put the figure in a range of 80 million to 100 million, and analysts say usage will get a big boost as cellular operators start to launch third-generation broadband networks.

View Full Image

Perhaps most important, analysts say, Internet investors and companies are dismissing the commonly held notion that building a large-scale Indian business requires targeting the "bottom of the pyramid" – the lower economic rungs that constitute the mass market. They're increasingly concluding that economic growth averaging 8.5% in recent years has produced enough relatively affluent consumers to support a robust Internet market.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by svinayak »

Chinmayanand wrote:Finally, India beats China in growth sweepstakes
It’s official! India’s growth in 2010 was a notch higher than that of China. According to data from the IMF, India’s GDP grew 10.4 per cent in 2010 versus China’s 10.3 per cent. And if projections by official agencies are anything to go by, China is looking at a 7 per cent growth in the Twelfth Plan period (2011-15) compared with India’s 9 per cent. This is the first time that India’s growth has overtaken that of China, since the latter initiated reforms in the 1980s, a decade ahead of India.
I went to a chinese seminar on China economy and opportnities in 2010. Instead of it being a Chinese economic seminar they are comparing with India. The first thing the host said was - India has just announced it revised growth rate for 2009 and it is 6-7%. This is lower than China which has reached 9%. I was LOL
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by vina »

Chinmayanand wrote:Finally, India beats China in growth sweepstakes
It’s official! India’s growth in 2010 was a notch higher than that of China. According to data from the IMF, India’s GDP grew 10.4 per cent in 2010 versus China’s 10.3 per cent. And if projections by official agencies are anything to go by, China is looking at a 7 per cent growth in the Twelfth Plan period (2011-15) compared with India’s 9 per cent. This is the first time that India’s growth has overtaken that of China, since the latter initiated reforms in the 1980s, a decade ahead of India.
BRRRRR.. Paging Wrdos! Paging Wrdos.

Now that it has happened just as I predicted , India is growing FASTER than China, I suppose it is time for you to pull out that checkbook and write a check to the charity of my choice! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Arjun »

India’s GDP grew 10.4 per cent in 2010
Where is this number coming from? Why is the iMF number different from the government's?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

Arjun wrote:
India’s GDP grew 10.4 per cent in 2010
Where is this number coming from? Why is the iMF number different from the government's?
Because IMF uses a dollar growth rate criteria....So it adds in the exchange rate movement v/s dollar to the real growth in local ccy terms....Usually, the GDP deflator should account for the movement in the ccy, and hence the net impact should broadly cancel out - interest parity principle - but obviously with ccy markets (esp China's heavily pegged ccy) thigs can sometimes get awry...So its a bit of a statistical fudge right now....

But over the next 5-6 years, it should be de rigeur for India to grow faster..Wen Jiabao downwards, all Chinese leaers have talked of a "sustainable" growth, euphemism for lower growth fro greater stability (inflation etc)...So its only a statistical precurser of things to come...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by vina »

But over the next 5-6 years, it should be de rigeur for India to grow faster..Wen Jiabao downwards, all Chinese leaers have talked of a "sustainable" growth, euphemism for lower growth fro greater stability (inflation etc)...So its only a statistical precurser of things to come...
Ah.. But did you predict this some nearly 2 years BEFORE "Glandpa Wen" and his underlings start talking about "sustainable growth" and make bets with the Chinese who came on this forum about it? :P :P
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by harbans »

Somnath and Suraj Ji i must thank you for enlightening me about so many aspects on the economy. It's been a pleasure reading this thread because of your elucidations.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

I remember reading in the budget survey that as the economy grows the PPP deflator decreases. India's was ~ to 3 while Chinas had dropped to ~ 1.7. When you compare the two countries PPP GDP India is ~ $ 4.5 Trillion while China is ~ $9 Trillion or so. Also India has only 400 Million in the working age while China has 800 Million in the working age.

Hard though it is to believe we may not be that wildly far apart. And India's is now coming on strong. All the major growth is ahead.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Akshut »

Shouldn't the GDP of China which is reported to be around 5.5 tln. be more than that because the yuan is undervalued as compared to the dollar? So the size of the actual economy could be larger than 5.5 tln..

Also the data in the IMF report suggests 8.2 and 7.8 percent growth for '11 & '12 for India, whereas 9.6 & 9.5 for China.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo ... f/text.pdf ...page 73.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

Theo_Fidel wrote:I remember reading in the budget survey that as the economy grows the PPP deflator decreases. India's was ~ to 3 while Chinas had dropped to ~ 1.7. When you compare the two countries PPP GDP India is ~ $ 4.5 Trillion while China is ~ $9 Trillion or so. Also India has only 400 Million in the working age while China has 800 Million in the working age.
GDP deflator used in domestic GDP growth calcs is a slightly different concept to PPP deflator...PPP deflator is essentially the relative growth in domestic GDP deflator to the US GDP deflator..In simple words, the relative level of inflation, relative to the US...

So more than the size of the GDP, what impacts the PPP deflator is the relative "closeness" to US inflation....In simple words, if price levels in the country approaches US price levels, the deflator shrinks..Which is more a function of how much the economy is integrated with the rest of the world - a closed economy will have inflation/price levels determined by its own endogeneous factors, an open economy will have exogeneous factors also causing an effect...
Akshut wrote:Shouldn't the GDP of China which is reported to be around 5.5 tln. be more than that because the yuan is undervalued as compared to the dollar? So the size of the actual economy could be larger than 5.5 tln..
Well, purely mathematically, if CNY was (say) 10 CNY for the dollar, the USD value of China's GDP would be higher...But if the exchange rate really went there, would China's GDP growth remain @ 10%? The undervalued ccy helps enormously to maintain a high growth rate in exports, which in turn drives trade...So, its not a "single year" mathematical calculation...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Singha »

WSJ http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2011 ... -calcutta/

India Journal: The Unnecessary Decline of Calcutta

By Rajeev Mantri

Shortly after Singapore became an independent nation in 1965, its founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew is said to have remarked that he wanted his city-state to be like Calcutta. Bereft of any mineral wealth and in a hostile neighborhood, few would have given Singapore, a then-poor island nation covering an area of less than 1,000 square kilometers, any chance of surviving, let alone thriving. But today, Singapore frequently ranks among the top echelons of economic and human development indices. Last year, it ranked first in the World Bank’s Doing Business study, receiving high marks for being supportive of entrepreneurial businesses.

Rajeev Mantri

Mr. Lee’s comment may be apocryphal and sounds absurd in the present day context, but it nevertheless has a historical basis. Through the 1950s and 1960s, Calcutta was arguably India’s most important city, ahead of Bombay and Delhi. As early as the 1970s, Calcutta started contemplating the construction of a mass rapid transit system, and India’s first underground metro started operating in 1984. Those who lived through those decades recall the cleanliness—all streets were washed every morning—and the efficiency of the civic administration. Calcutta was the base of India’s largest business groups, and had thriving heavy industry nearby.

Calcutta also had a long and distinguished history of producing titans in arts, culture, science and politics. It gave India luminaries of the independence movement like Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose and cultural icons like Rabindranath Tagore, the first Asian to win a Nobel Prize in 1913. India’s most renowned filmmaker and Oscar winner Satyajit Ray also hailed from Calcutta. Scientists like Satyendranath Bose and Jagadish Chandra Bose made seminal contributions to quantum physics and wireless radio transmission, respectively. Calcutta has been home to world-class institutions such as the Indian Institute of Management and the Indian Statistical Institute. India’s first IIT was established nearby at Kharagpur in 1951.

Recent Bollywood period films set in Calcutta, such as 2005’s “Parineeta,” showcase the city’s nightlife and vibrancy. On all counts, Calcutta was way ahead of other Indian cities until the tide turned dramatically. The population growth of a city is a reasonable indicator of its standing – people vote with their feet, and human capital flows to cities that deliver economic opportunity, and on this indicator alone, Calcutta’s long-term decline seems to be conclusive and terminal.

In 1950, the city had a population of over 4.5 million. Bombay’s population stood at 2.6 million and Delhi’s at 1.4 million. Bangalore had just 0.8 million people. By 2007, Bombay’s population was nearly 19 million, Delhi and Bangalore had 16.7 million and 7 million people respectively, while Calcutta’s population was 14.8 million. While other cities have successfully projected themselves as offering economic opportunity and upward social mobility, Calcutta is a shadow of its former self and wouldn’t even be counted among the top four cities in India. It has long been surpassed not just by Bombay and Delhi, but arguably even Bangalore, Pune and Hyderabad. When was the last time you heard somebody say they are moving to Calcutta to “make it in life”?

Calcutta had it all. How could a city with such a rich heritage, that had so much going for it not so long ago, fall into this morass of stagnation and seemingly perennial economic decline?

In 1977, a coalition of Left parties led by Communist Jyoti Basu (he had trained in economics under Harold Laski at London School of Economics) came to power in West Bengal and failed to recognize and prepare for the competition for financial and human capital that Calcutta and the state were already beginning to face from other parts of India.

The Left Front government proceeded to defile West Bengal’s business climate and de-industrialize the state in the ensuing decades. In response, businesses simply shifted to other states, notably Maharashtra and Gujarat.

The flight of business and talent has reduced West Bengal to an economic wasteland, and the short-sighted, self-serving policies pursued by the Leftists have severely curtailed the prosperity of at least two generations of Bengalis, besides damaging Calcutta’s brand.

The negative impact of the Left Front coalition’s economic policy should also be seen in the context of India’s rise since 1991 in particular, which only underscores how abysmal the economic performance has been. Calcutta and West Bengal are monuments to the failures of Leftist economic thinking.

Calcutta and West Bengal have failed miserably to capitalize on natural advantages such as availability of mineral resources and geographical proximity to the fast-growing economies of China, Southeast Asia, Hong Kong and Taiwan — all of which are much closer to Calcutta than they are to Bombay and Delhi. Direct transportation links to those regions would facilitate trade and commerce. The responsibility for this colossal failure lies squarely at the door of the political leadership.

The paths of Singapore and Calcutta have diverged so dramatically that, in 2002, when India’s Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Singapore, he expressed amazement at its development, saying Singapore “used to be like Calcutta” and terming its transformation ”chamatkar“ or a miracle. Mr. Vajpayee had last been to Singapore in 1967, and was referring to the Calcutta of 2002, of course.

On being asked what the second world war should be called, Winston Churchill had said “The Unnecessary War”. The same can be said for Calcutta’s economic decline. With elections about to get underway and the prospect of a change of a guard imminent after 34 years of the Left Front government, one certainly hopes that if a new administration takes over next month, it pursues economic reforms, embraces markets and ushers in a new era of development that lays the foundation to revive Calcutta’s lost glory. Without a resurgence of the city, the state too shall continue to languish.

Rajeev Mantri is director of GPSK Investment Group, an investment management and proprietary trading firm, and a frequent contributor to India Real Time. Follow him on Twitter @RMantri.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Suraj »

For the Indian northeast to grow and strengthen requires an economic magnet in Calcutta. It can't all be done top down using central infrastructure grants to build road, rail and electricity generation services. The NE needs to feed into say, Guwahati, which in turn feeds into Calcutta, the nearest major port.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Singha »

NE cannot develop without economic integration and open trade borders/road/rail with Bangladesh and Chittagong port.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

Singha wrote:NE cannot develop without economic integration and open trade borders/road/rail with Bangladesh and Chittagong port.
Absolutely - Calcutta is linked to the NE by a tenuous "chicken's neck" area in Siliguri...A land access through BD is a sine qua non..something that has been in the works for long...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Suraj »

As I recall, BD declined to provide through commercial traffic connectivity to shorten the route between NE terminus states and Calcutta. Ultimately we have to make our own futures. Can't just sit around complaining about geography or blame Nehru for giving away CHT etc. The economic success and development of the NE remains tied to the fortunes of Calcutta, in as much as the latter being stagnant means any economic migrant or businessman is forced to seek his fortune in far off Delhi or Bombay.

The 'chickens neck' area only looks tenuous on a map. In reality is is quite wide - well capable of supporting widened road, rail and energy connectivity lines, as well as the means to defend them. I'm sure it's been discussed in far greater detail in the mil forum.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

^ Yes Suraj. It is at least 10 miles wide at its narrowest point. They can develop wonderful infra along NH 31
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

X-X-Posted
ramana wrote:X-posted...
LINK
India 5th most powerful nation, says govt index

Sachin Parashar, TNN | Apr 13, 2011, 01.35am IST

According to Foundation for National Security Research director Satish Kumar, who edited the national security review, the NSI is based on an assessment of defence capability, economic strength, effective population, technological capability and energy security of the top 50 countries. The US is at the top of the list on the basis of these criteria followed by China, Japan and Russia.

South Korea emerged as the sixth most powerful nation followed by Norway, :( Germany, France and UK.

While India ranked third in the case of population and fourth in terms of defence capabilities, it was at the 34th position in technology and 33rd in energy security. Only US, China and Russia are ranked higher than India in defence capability. In economic strength, India ranked seventh.

Out of the five criteria, maximum weightage was given to defence capabilities at 30%. Economic strength, technology and effective population had weightage of 20% each. Energy security had the remaining 10%. The national security annual review governing body, which comprises a host of experts, is headed by former foreign secretary M K Rasgotra.

On the likelihood of people raising eyebrows over India's extremely high rank, the NSI report said the strategic community in India will still take time to get used to India being such a powerful country. "Of course, the variable that helps India most is the size of its skilled working population. But that variable helps China to a great deal,'' it said.
Somnath, The point highlighted in RED is for you. Look at the weights given to defense capabilities and economic strength.

In my model, I had a different weightage as my "definition of Indian core interests" is slightly different.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Also, IIRC correctly from my visits there are several mountain ranges between most of the NE & Bangladesh. Back then I remember just a bus ride from Shillong to Tripura took 14 hours over mountain range after mountain range. Chittagong would be even further away. The NE is also not very big. All the states put together would be about 1/2 the size of Andhra.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

Suraj wrote:As I recall, BD declined to provide through commercial traffic connectivity to shorten the route between NE terminus states and Calcutta. Ultimately we have to make our own futures. Can't just sit around complaining about geography or blame Nehru for giving away CHT etc. The economic success and development of the NE remains tied to the fortunes of Calcutta, in as much as the latter being stagnant means any economic migrant or businessman is forced to seek his fortune in far off Delhi or Bombay.

The 'chickens neck' area only looks tenuous on a map. In reality is is quite wide - well capable of supporting widened road, rail and energy connectivity lines, as well as the means to defend them. I'm sure it's been discussed in far greater detail in the mil forum
Road and rail connectivity, via the existing Siliguri/New Jalpaiguri corridor is very time consuming, and ultimately expensive...The rail track is already broad gauge, and I guess highways can be made better...From Calcutta, you have to go right up to North Bengal - New Jalpaiguri, across the "bend" and then descend down to Guwahati..If you wanted to reach Agartala, the track comes further down and around almost the entire border of Bangladesh...

A straight line cutting right through Bangladesh would drastically reduce costs...Parts of it are already in place
1. We have rail transit set up till Dhaka...The problem is that the line from Dhaka to Aguara is metre gauge - India has proposed to invest in converting that to broad gauage..

2. The road connectivity is partially in place - there is a bu service now...India is talking to BD about a full fledged transport corridor through to Agartala...With the new turn in Indo-BD relations, it should work out...

The economic rationale is compelling...
RamaY wrote:Somnath, The point highlighted in RED is for you. Look at the weights given to defense capabilities and economic strength
Well, everyone's doing some index of "power" these days...Kaushik Basu started off with the Index of Government Economic Power (IGEP) in the Economic Survey this year...http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2010-11/echap-02.pdf

Given the way these indices are constructed, by the sheer weight of our numbers we will always look quite good..The issue is whether as a country with such pathetic HDIs, how much more can we spend on defence (as a % of total spends)..What sort of a society are we trying to build? As a comparison, we already spend ~12-13% of the central budget (and 20% of central tax revenues) on defence...I gave you the various heads in the earlier post - is there really room for more?

Most importantly, the issue with defence isnt about outlays - has not been now for 10 years - its about execution and outcomes...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

Those pathetic HDI is due to 200yrs of colonial rule (did you ever wonder why British failed to developm india during their rule?). Without those defense expenditure, we will be another FATA.

The non-sense about butter Vs guns is very old. Give a different reason if you can. Lack of development is not due to lack of funds. If funds were the issue how come there is >$500B black money out side india since 1947? How come last year alone india has $100B worth of scams?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

RamaY wrote:Those pathetic HDI is due to 200yrs of colonial rule (did you ever wonder why British failed to developm india during their rule?). Without those defense expenditure, we will be another FATA.
60+ years after independence, its still the British that are to blame!? Wow...BTW, India's share of both global GDP and global trade in 1947 was higher than what it is even today (20 years after reforms)....
RamaY wrote:Lack of development is not due to lack of funds
How do you arrive at such conclusions? Strip out the data of the last 7-8 years when funding hasnt been a big issue typically..What has been India's per capita expenditure on education (over 50 years)? On health? the numbers would be some of the lowest in the developing world...
RamaY wrote:The non-sense about butter Vs guns is very old
Really? The Pakistanis would have a different story to tell..The Soviets too would have a different story to tell, in a slightly different form..So would a large number of African countries....

finally, its not about "NOT" spending on defence....Its about arriving at a number that is optimum and sustainable with other equally important objectives...Most importantly, no one in the defence ministry could serioulsy complain about "lack of funds" even in the current outlays for the last 10-15 years! So where is the problem?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

Somnath

Please try to understand my post first before shooting answers.

I am not blaming British, dear friend. I was asking a question - How could British turned Britain into a G7 nation but left India, that is under their rule for 200 years, as G180th nation on HDI?

I gave you the numbers to substantiate my conclusions. The estimates of (outside) black money range from $500B-$1,500B. We also saw ~$100B worth of scams the past year alone. They cannot happen from a society that is dirt poor. How is it the commoner's mistake if the GoI doesn't spend the money on Education/Health? Weren't you supporting their budgeting approach and numbers just a few posts above?

Pakis live on begging for both alms and arms; so they have no decision to make. Russia is not a poor nation either before or after collapse. Africa is not allowed (by their past colonizers) to make a decision between butter and guns.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Suraj »

Would someone mind reporting periodic breakdown of % of GDP and/or % of budget spent on health and education (separately if possible) for India, and for developing Asia as well as the Asian tigers over the course of time, say over the past 50 years ? It would be far more useful than just the rhetoric about British and lack of spending...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

RamaY wrote:I am not blaming British, dear friend. I was asking a question - How could British turned Britain into a G7 nation but left India, that is under their rule for 200 years, as G180th nation on HDI?
????
1. Why should the British, as a colonial power have a responsibility to "develop" India as a G7 country?!

2. I have no clue what HDIs India had in 1947 (dont know where you get the #180 from)..But we know from fairly accurate sources that in 1947 India had a higher share of global trade and global economy than it has now..Whose fault is that?
RamaY wrote: gave you the numbers to substantiate my conclusions. The estimates of (outside) black money range from $500B-$1,500B. We also saw ~$100B worth of scams the past year alone. They cannot happen from a society that is dirt poor. How is it the commoner's mistake if the GoI doesn't spend the money on Education/Health? Weren't you supporting their budgeting approach and numbers just a few posts above?
You are mixing up different things..One, the estimates of black money are just that, estimates - no one knows what the amount really is (someone like Surjit Bhalla estimates it to be much less)..But thats not the point...The point is that GOI has a certain pot of revenues, black money and all, which it has to allocate to various sectors...Given all our development and security challenges, allocations to various social sectors historially have been a problem - it was not just about exeution, it was about grossly inadequate allocations to start with...So the question is really, what is the "optimum" level of allocations to various sectors, thats all...I gave you the various heads from the Union Budget - you can do your maths on how much more can be conscientiously allocated to defence...
RamaY wrote:Russia is not a poor nation either before or after collapse
It wasnt "poor", but it was broke...It was broke primarily because it sepnt too much on the military (and other adjunct programmes like space - essentially military in nature), and too little on a host of other things (not so much on social sectors though - they were far better than India on that in outcomes, but far worse than Western Europe)...

I will let the discussion on Pak and Africa go -it will just go on a tangent...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

Suraj wrote:Would someone mind reporting periodic breakdown of % of GDP and/or % of budget spent on health and education (separately if possible) for India, and for developing Asia as well as the Asian tigers over the course of time, say over the past 50 years ? It would be far more useful than just the rhetoric about British and lack of spending...
I think I had posted an ADB study sometime back..Cant find it in www anymore...But here's something else..

http://www.adb.org/Documents/Presentati ... bulHaq.pdf

I think Prof Haq is quoting from the same study..
This is revealed by annual per capita expenditure on human priority areas of basic education, primary health care, family planning, safe drinking water and nutritiona1 programmes. Such expenditure is $2 per capita per annum in Bangladesh, $3 in Pakistan and Indonesia, and $9 in India. This contrasts with $133 in South Korea and $123 in Malaysia.
To be sure, both SK and M'sia have higher PCIs as well, compared to India..But M'sia's PCI isnt 12 times India's..And even SoKo's wast 13 times that of India in 1950, in fact it was lower.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

By being an imperial power, all of Britain's Indian budget must have been on butter. Even then India was an undeveloped nation after independence. The slow rate of growth after independence is due to (1) continuation of British administrative and education policies (2) cost of rebuilding of the nation that is forcibly kept down for centuries/

No need to repeat the same point again and again...

Do you think the ruling class and black-money holders are two different groups? It is called corruption or black money when the national revenues are skimmed out of the nation. Are you saying that the economy/GoI-Budget should ignore the skimming and split the remaining revenues between butter and guns? Isn't it like you asking your wife to manage the house hold with $40 (and split that money between food and children's safety) after stealing $60 of your own salary?

USSR was not broke after split; its transition from socialism to market-economy was abrupt and ill-managed. How could you miss such an obvious information?

Please enlighten us. Or are you afraid that you were wrong about Pakis and Africa?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

Found some basic data

Image

To keep the perspective we need the overall outlay of each five-year plan in millions of rupees. Will summarize that later.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Suraj »

RamaY: I would really suggest giving up the British rule argument in this debate. It may have some technical relevance, but I agree with somnath: it's been 65 years, and if we can grow our economy fourfold in a decade (as we did 2000-01 through 2010-11) we damn well could have fixed a lot more than we did in the last 65.

In keeping with the way we've approached the topic in this thread over the years, I wanted to encourage efforts to collect data to see just how well or badly our spending on health, sanitation and education compares with other parts of developing Asia, particularly at roughly similar periods of development. It would also be enlightening to know what their spending on defense and debt-servicing was, as a fraction of GDP and annual budget.

I don't necessarily agree that our defense spending level is a reason for our poor HDI - others like South Korea have has historically higher spending on defence as a percentage of GDP, thanks to their unresolved war situation with NoKo. Elsewhere, China has essentially been a garrison state ruled by a politico-military entity. Yet they have both demonstrated far better HDI improvement. Even though impassioned rhetoric is more cathartic, data would be much more useful...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

RamaY-ji, where do you get your data?
RamaY wrote:By being an imperial power, all of Britain's Indian budget must have been on butter
Not at all, a very large part of Govt of India's budget was defence..Which in fact was part of the entire narrative of the freedom movement as well...India had one of the most well developed militaries in Asia in 1947...
RamaY wrote:The slow rate of growth after independence is due to (1) continuation of British administrative and education policies (2) cost of rebuilding of the nation that is forcibly kept down for centuries
??? 60 years post independence?! Are there any studies that show these conclusions that you can reference?

More importantly, India wasnt Robinson Crusoe in being a colonised country..All of Asia, barrign china in some (limited) way was colonised in one form or another...Bulk of it was under Britain...In 1950, India was in fact at a position of economic strength that was much better than many of these Asian countries...If general social indicators are uniformly better for these countries today, and not for us, the blame isnt with the BRitish, it is with us!

And BTW, the data of relative Indian spends (vis a vis other Asian countries) on social sector is widely avaialble - you dont have to "dig out" the data...Refer to the ADB report that I referenced - gives you an indication..ADB had a nice report with tables that I remember, but cant find - will do when I have time..
RamaY wrote:Do you think the ruling class and black-money holders are two different groups? It is called corruption or black money when the national revenues are skimmed out of the nation. Are you saying that the economy/GoI-Budget should ignore the skimming and split the remaining revenues between butter and guns? Isn't it like you asking your wife to manage the house hold with $40 (and split that money between food and children's safety) after stealing $60 of your own salary
What logic is this? There is no argument that black money should be recovered and all of that...But if the govt has 100 rupees of revenues, it needs to spend on everything within that (and a reasonable level of borrowing)...the business of governance cannot stop while all black money is recovered isnt it?
RamaY wrote:USSR was not broke after split; its transition from socialism to market-economy was abrupt and ill-managed. How could you miss such an obvious information?
Really?! THIS is obvious!? The body of literature on Soiet economic performance and its causative influence on the break-up of the SU is widely chronicled...A continuously poor economic performance coupled with high defence expenditure - that is what finally led the system to crmble..A simple Google search should yield many reports...

But here is a non-google reference..
http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/tho ... ecline.pdf

there would be many many more....If you want a bird's eye view of how SU was int he last days - you may want to read David Remnick's Lenin's Tomb...
RamaY wrote:Please enlighten us. Or are you afraid that you were wrong about Pakis and Africa?
Not at all, whats there to be afraid of? At worst, I can be proved wrong, in which case there would be incremental learning..But in this case, and I will stick to Pak as Africa is a large topic, Pak's general economic performance wasnt bad at all for the first 30-40 years...Thanks to a variety of factors, in some respects, like per capita income, it was actually ahead of India for many years...The issue was that it consistently allocated 30-40% of its budget to defence...And when the tide turned (on economy), it found that its Army could not live without the high allocations, while its resources were not enough to meet any of the other needs...Pak is a complex subject, not possible to account for in a few words...But an extra-ordinary focus on the military was a defning feature of the Paki state, which along with other well known factors brought the country to this pass...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

WRT education there were many many impediments to to it before and even now.

Entire sections of the population were denied education on a social basis. Knowledge was monopolized by a few for centuries which ossified the education system, esp. any sort of modern education. As a population we did not value education for all, it was for a privileged few. We continued this practice after independence, focusing on Higher education rather than elementary education. It is only from the mid 1980's that any sort of determination was shown towards 100% literacy.

The communities in Central & Northern India continue to devalue education, esp. for women and this shows up in the statistics. Social reform is still needed. Education for all is inhibited by social biases still. Communities around here have a mythology of having to change religions to access education. This was reality. We often fail to see how far we have come as we don't remember our history too well. We don't appreciate just how vicious and primitive social customs were back then. We take it as a given today that caste-ism is bad, this was simply not true back then. We take it as a given the women must be educated, but apparently this was not so obvious back then.

The British did not care one way or another. They simply wanted to maintain their rule. If the natives had demanded universal education the British would have given it to them. In 1918 the British government spent American 14.5 cents per head on education, 80% of villages did not have schools, literacy rate was 4% and yet there were communities 100% literate even back then.

Those interested should go read the arguments against fixing the marriageable age for girls to 12 years in 1929 preserved in the government gazette. IIRC it runs to about 13,000 pages of objections. Yes I said that right, 12 years. The comments by some of the supposed learned, lawyer, bankers and babu types is particularly nauseating. Some of them may still be around. The British acted on a strong social reform movement pressure. To the credit of the British they did not back down, some thing I can not say about our democratic governments. It took till 1978 to raise it further to 18 years. One of the major reasons Kerala is so different is that it has long had a custom of delaying marriage for women.

Sadly we did not have a strong social reform movement for universal education back then. Gopal Krishna Gokhale was the main driving force for universal education. His death in 1915 at 50 years of age was devastating to the movement. Had he lived just a little longer we would have seen universal education for all at least from 1930's. Back in 1913 a proposal to provide free primary education in Odisha attracted 11,000 signatures from all the elite of the land opposing it as it would prevent agricultural child labor. Girl children above the age of 7 years could not leave for school, so had to be educated at home by illiterate mothers and grand mothers. Caste was a tremendous problem with even privileged groups demanding separate schools or no schooling at all. Education was a hindrance.

There were exceptions, Cochin area, Tranvancore area, Baroda, Mysore, Bhopal, Indore, all had local rulers who spent to educate their populations. To this day these areas benefit from this early start.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

Suraj wrote:I don't necessarily agree that our defense spending level is a reason for our poor HDI - others like South Korea have has historically higher spending on defence as a percentage of GDP, thanks to their unresolved war situation with NoKo. Elsewhere, China has essentially been a garrison state ruled by a politico-military entity. Yet they have both demonstrated far better HDI improvement
Finally, its always a question of affordibility...If a country has a tax-to-GDP of 20%, it can perhaps afford to spend 4% of GDP on defence, but if the same if 13-14%, then spending 4% is politically and socially problematic..

For India, over the years, military spends as a % of GDP has actually not been too bad..We are not the highest, but we arent the worst either - pretty much in line with most of Asia..

some data here from SIPRI..
http://milexdata.sipri.org/files/downlo ... 8-2010.xls

We have averaged about 3% of GDP over the last 20 years, which is actually higher than China, higher than M'sia, higher than Indonesia...And lower than Pak, Singapore and almost the same level as SoKo..

If one looks at social sector on the other hand, for approx the same period, the avareges are in the 6-7% range for the entire gamut of social sector (whcih includes rural development)...If one takes only the "core social sectors", ie Education and Health, the % of GDP is in the 4% range for the last 20 years, with education running @ below 3% and health @ a little above 1%...
http://www1.ximb.ac.in/users/fac/Shambu ... PR2004.pdf
http://www.livemint.com/2008/02/2813052 ... ArtVPF.pdf

It is obvious that most Asian countries spent far more than these levels..Part fo the reason is simple - income...Tax-to-GDP start picking up at a certain threshold level of income, and faster growth in rest of Asia enabled them reap greater revenues and in turn invest more in education and health...To be honest though, the trend on higher allocation to health and education was visible even in the early days of Singapore/SoKo/Malaysia, at least since the '60s...With our inome levels rising, our tax-to-GDP should also grow, enabling us spend more...

This budget is actually path-breaking in some sense in that way - for the first time in many years, central allocation to core social sector has exceeded defence - its only a precurser of things to come...
Last edited by somnath on 14 Apr 2011 11:54, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Suraj »

Interesting data from SIPRI. Too bad it's only from the late 1980s onwards. It would be far more interesting to see how much SoKo and others spend on defence back in the 1950s and 1960s, when they were just taking off economically, along with the corresponding shares spent on education and health. The Chinese data on SIPRI is not comparable to India's. Both Russia and China have historically underreported their military expenditure due to accounting and budgeting quirks - their missiles and rocket forces were budgeted under the space program and not military expenditure, for example.

I'm also interested in how much of the budgets of various countries went to debt servicing. India has had a chronically high fiscal deficit for a long time; the combination of defence+debt servicing+government expenditure left little extra for social sector investment for decades. I also agree with Theo on the matter of the relationship between social development and education and maternal health.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Rahul M »

re PRC def spending. taking it at 170-200 % of officially reported figure is a reasonable estimate, depending on who you believe.
there is a quirk in data though. in the 80's def spending had a period of -ve or flat growth. it was a result of both real cutbacks(mil came last in deng's 4 priorities) and more importantly moving a humongous chunk of troops from MOD to their equivalent of MHA(under People's Armed police) without changing their role.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by somnath »

Its no wonder that India is perhaps the only large fast growing country that has significant stretches on achieving MDGs..ITs not JUST a question of social sector spending, ut that has a lot to do with it...
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