Caucasus Crisis

[Raj]

Ceasefire attempts during the 2006 Lebanon War

[Raj]

Exchange between US and Russia in Security council meeting.
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-08-10-voa31.cfm

Churkin said charges that Moscow is refusing international mediation are false, and pointed to several conversations between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice over the last few days.

Khalilzad seized on that and said the two top envoys' latest telephone conversation "raised serious concerns about Russia's objectives" in Georgia.

"In that conversation, Foreign Minister Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Rice that a democratically elected president of Georgia - and I quote - 'must go.' I quote again: 'Saakashvili must go.' This is completely unacceptable and crosses the line," he said. "I want to ask Ambassador Churkin, is your government's objective regime change in Georgia? The overthrow of the democratically elected government of Georgia?"

Ambassador Churkin's response was swift.

"Your interesting reference to the diplomatic telephone call - this confidential call between our minister and your secretary of state," said Vitaly Churkin. "I would like to say straight away, that regime change is an American expression. We do not use such an expression. I'm encouraged by the fact that you have referred to this publicly - I suggest that this means this is an interesting idea and that you are ready to bring this forward to the public platform."

Ambassador Khalilzad was not satisfied.

"I want to restate my question to Ambassador Churkin, he did not answer my question," he said. "Is the goal of the Russian Federation to change the leadership of Georgia?"

"I suggest that I gave a complete response," said Churkin. "Maybe the ambassador was not listening when I gave my response? Maybe he did not have his earpiece on? I suggest that I gave a full response to that question."

[Karan Dixit]

Russia is "ready to put an end to the war," said Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, who also accused the U.N. secretary-general's office of taking Georgia's side.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080810/ap_ ... _ossetia_1

(Now we know why Sashi Tahroor was blocked from becoming UN chief.)

[Karan Dixit]

American diplomats have conceded that there are few options for dealing what President George W Bush has branded a 'dangerous escalation' by Russia and ruled out military intervention on behalf of Georgia.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... a-war.html

[enqyoob]

As I understand, Saddam Hussein was also elected, in fact by 127.39% of the entire population of Iraq, not just the voters. His popular mandate was only exceeded by that of General (I mean "Chief Executive") Musharraf, who won 133%.

Slobo Milosevic was also vastly popular in Serbia, and IIRC, Adolf Hitler too was hugely popular and won 98% of the vote in Nazi Germany, with the other 2% immediately sent to concentration camps (like a lot of people in Panama and Grenada were sent).

The present President of Iran was also elected in democratic elections. Khalilzad's concern and respect for democratically elected leaders is very touching. It seems to be confined to genocidal war criminals like Musharraf, Yahya Khan and Saakashvili.

It is sad that the US is still cursed with idiots and swine-flu at the top levels of foreign policy (NO specific reference to any person, just a general observation)

[Karan Dixit]

Will Russia do a regime change in Georgia?

Will Mikhail Saakashvili meet Sadam's fate?

Although Russians have acknowledged that regime change is an American expertise but, a skill invented by one person can still be learned by another person.

[Karan Dixit]

Things are getting more complicated now. Georgia says it has withdrawn from South Ossetia. But Russians do not show faith in Georgian claim. Seems like bombing of Georgia will continue till Georgia has withdrawn from South Ossetia. And, only Russia will decide when Georgia has withdrawn from South Ossetia. Sweet!

---

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1080811/j ... 675851.jsp

[Raj]

According to Russia Today Channel.

Georgian troops remain in conflict zone according to fleeing locals.

Russian representative to NATO says NATO should be reminded about its proportional use of force in Yugoslavia in 1999.

RT reporter puts it like this regarding US accusation of disproportionate use of force by Russia:50 killed in Georgia and 2000 killed in South Ossetia.

Russian human rights organization says to set up tribunals to look into mass killings in South Ossetia.
Volunteers from Abkhazia plan to take control of disputed Kodori gorge.

South Ossetian Capital is under complete Russian control.

Russian Defense Ministry has received a ceasefire note from Georgia saying Georgia will be ceasing military action in South Ossetia but according to Russian peacekeepers they are still in South Ossetia and fighting

[enqyoob]

Russia has declared that it is moving into certain parts of (the former) Georgia. There has to be payback, I guess, for genocide. Also, I hope they get Shaaskvili arrested.

[Gerard]

We helped in Iraq - now help us, beg Georgians

[Raj]

Cheney: "Russian aggression must not go unanswered"

It said Cheney told Saakashvili that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States, as well as the broader international community."

[Shivani]

(Now we know why Sashi Tahroor was blocked from becoming UN chief.)

That's a stretch . Not getting the otiose United Nations top post is no loss for us as a nation. That was Tharoor's personal career setback. Musharraf could be the next Secretary General and it wouldn't make any difference to the world.
Let us not give more importance or courtesy to UN offices than strictly necessary. All meaningful work happens at 'lower' levels anyway.

[Gerard]

Musharraf could be the next Secretary General and it wouldn't make any difference to the world.

Hmm... I can actually picture Gola as UNSG.. maybe India can nominate him as a CBM ?

[Gerard]

Russian Ground Forces Assault Vital Georgian City

Two senior Western officials said that it was unclear whether Russia intended a full invasion of Georgia, but that its aims could go as far as destroying its armed forces or overthrowing Georgia’s pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili.

But Georgian officials expressed alarm on Sunday that Russia might be aiming to take Gori, about a 45-minute drive south from Tskhinvali. Gori, a major staging area for the Georgian military, sits in a valley that is the main route connecting the east and west halves of Georgia. Shota Utiashvili, an official of the Georgian Interior Ministry, said the Russians had moved tanks and troops to within a few kilometers of Gori and were “trying to cut the country in half.” He said that if they tried to occupy Georgia, “there will probably be guerilla warfare all over the country.”

Gori evacuated as fears of Russian advance into Georgia grow

[Arun_S]

As I understand, Saddam Hussein was also elected, in fact by 127.39% of the entire population of Iraq, not just the voters. His popular mandate was only exceeded by that of General (I mean "Chief Executive") Musharraf, who won 133%.

Slobo Milosevic was also vastly popular in Serbia, and IIRC, Adolf Hitler too was hugely popular and won 98% of the vote in Nazi Germany, with the other 2% immediately sent to concentration camps (like a lot of people in Panama and Grenada were sent).

The present President of Iran was also elected in democratic elections. Khalilzad's concern and respect for democratically elected leaders is very touching. It seems to be confined to genocidal war criminals like Musharraf, Yahya Khan and Saakashvili.

It is sad that the US is still cursed with idiots and swine-flu at the top levels of foreign policy (NO specific reference to any person, just a general observation)

Subhaan Allah. You said my piece of mind.

Saakashvili be found on a lamp post soon and Musharraf to be found soon thereafter on a pure izlamic Khambha-e-Laltern.

Mad dog Saakashvili is asking "Reham ki bheekh" with so called unilateral ceasefire when the hound dog tears his skin.

Paki dog will also do the same, but only when India finds its lost "will" to chew their tormentor's balls and butts. Alas we need to find a PM will fortitude to bell the mad jihadi kutta. No lecturer of peace or wisdom will do what "Danda" or "Goli" will do on those evil minded.

[Raj]

In Georgia Clash, a Lesson on U.S. Need for Russia

...
And State Department officials made it clear on Saturday that there was no chance the United States would intervene militarily.

Mr. Bush did use tough language, demanding that Russia stop bombing. And Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanded that Russia “respect Georgia’s territorial integrity.”

What did Mr. Putin do? First, he repudiated President Nicolas Sarkozy of France in Beijing, refusing to budge when Mr. Sarkozy tried to dissuade Russia from its military operation. “It was a very, very tough meeting,” a senior Western official said afterward. “Putin was saying, ‘We are going to make them pay. We are going to make justice.’ ”


“What the Russians just did is, for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, they have taken a decisive military action and imposed a military reality,” said George Friedman, chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis and intelligence company. “They’ve done it unilaterally, and all of the countries that have been looking to the West to intimidate the Russians are now forced into a position to consider what just happened.”
...

“Strategically, the Russians have been sending signals that they really wanted to flex their muscles, and they’re upset about Kosovo,” the diplomat said. He was alluding to Russia’s anger at the West for recognizing Kosovo’s independence from Serbia.

Indeed, the decision by the United States and Europe to recognize Kosovo may well have paved the way for Russia’s lightning-fast decision to send troops to back the separatists in South Ossetia. During one meeting on Kosovo in Brussels this year, Mr. Lavrov, the foreign minister, warned Ms. Rice and European diplomats that if they recognized Kosovo, they would be setting a precedent for South Ossetia and other breakaway provinces.

The Bush administration’s strong support for Georgia — including the training of Georgia’s military and arms support — came, in part, as a reward for its support of the United States in Iraq. The United States has held Georgia up as a beacon of democracy in the former Soviet Union; it was supposed to be an example to other former Soviet republics of the benefits of tilting to the West.

But that, along with America and Europe’s actions on Kosovo, left Russia feeling threatened, encircled and more convinced that it had to take aggressive measures to restore its power, dignity and influence in a region it considers its strategic back yard, foreign policy experts said.
...

Mr. Friedman of Stratfor said. “One would think under those circumstances, we’d shut up.”

One senior administration official, when told of that quote, laughed. “Well, maybe we’re learning to shut up now,” he said.

[Anujan]

We helped in Iraq - now help us, beg Georgians

I think a new sub branch of piscology must be created. I am going to name it "Unkil GUBO suicide syndrome" or UGSS for short.

Whichever country receives help from Unkil after some GUBO, completely forgets geopolitical reality and goes suicidal. All the while expecting Unkil's missles, aicraft carriers and airplanes to zoom in and rescue them. Case in point, Pakis in '65 and '71, Shias under saddam, and now Saakashvili.

Just because he sent a few dozen soldiers to Iraq and had a few trained by Unkil (to fight talibunnies and kayeeda of course) he went suicidal and tried to piss the bear off. He should have paid attention to what happened to Ukraine's gas to get some idea of Russian response. And now, if the Russians dont finish the problem once and for all (I expect they would), you can expect the leadership to and throw towels ala our paki brothers throwing towels to this day about American abandonment.

And N^3 is right. Unkil's foreign policy is extracted from a musharraf (double on-tan-dry intended). If NATO gets weakened (which is happening due to Unkil's propensity to go on military adventures on the drop of a hat and Unkil's economic woes), expect EU to go soft on the Russies and get dominated by them.

[sudarshan]

I honestly can't imagine what Saakashvili was thinking. A country Georgia's size thumbing its nose at the grizzly bear standing barely six feet away, thinking it can get away with it under the camouflage of the Olympics, and then whining for American support when the bear delivers the brutal mauling that anybody else in the world could have predicted. More power to the Russians, I say.

Gori evacuated, hmm? Anybody else see the irony in this? Gori was where Djosif Vissarionovich Djugashvili (better known as Josef Stalin) was born. Wonder if any Russian official thought of using this as psy-ops against the Georgians. I'm sure they could find a way to twist the fact to serve their purpose.

Sudarshan

[hnair]

The smaller Russian neighbors are seeing first hand what it means to live in the Bear's den.

These smaller russian neighbors can always learn from the smaller countries of Central and South America on "how to cope up with an oafish big rich country consisting of the right skin tone": just buy tubes of "fair 'n lovely" and win the next Miss Universe title

More power to the Russians, I say.

This is not our fight and all sides are capable of industrial strength murder. They have vast experiences in that area. Further, all sides are capable of convincing *all of* the other world leaders that they are the reason why humans exist on earth. So, why should I, a third world unwashed, take any side at this point? Busy day for me onlee. I have drinking water to boil, candles to buy for the power cut and has to hurry to sh*t on the rail track before the 9.30 local rolls in.

One more thing. If it comes to a downhill event, there wont be the customary 90,000 prisoners who will reach home to their families. Something we need to get used to. But something we should not support.

[Singha]

hnair, saar aap bahut form mein hain aaj!

[Singha]

NYT excerpts:

TBILISI, Georgia — Russia expanded its attacks on Georgia on Sunday, moving tanks and troops through the separatist enclave of South Ossetia and advancing toward the city of Gori in central Georgia, in its first direct assault on a Georgian city with ground forces during three days of heavy fighting, Georgian officials said.

The maneuver — along with bombing of the Georgian capital, Tbilisi — seemed to suggest that Russia’s aims in the conflict had gone beyond securing the pro-Russian enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to weakening the armed forces of Georgia, a former Soviet republic and an ally of the United States whose Western leanings have long irritated the Kremlin.

.....

There was heavy fighting on Sunday on two fronts. Russian artillery shells slammed the city of Gori, a major military installation and transportation hub in Georgia. In the separatist region of Abkhazia, Russian paratroopers and their Abkhaz allies battled Georgian special forces and tried to cross the boundary into undisputed Georgian territory, Georgian officials said.

Russia dropped a bomb on Tbilisi’s international airport shortly before Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France, who was sent by the European Union to try to mediate, was due to land, Georgian officials said. It twice bombed an aviation factory on the outskirts of the capital. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet patrolled the coast of Abkhazia, and its Defense Ministry said Russian warships had sunk a Georgian gunboat that fired on them.

....
In Washington, American officials said that Georgian troops had tried to disengage but that the Russians had not allowed them to.

“The Georgians told them, ‘We’re done. Let us withdraw,’ ” one American military official said. “But the Russians are not letting them withdraw. They are pursuing them, and people are seeing this.” The official was not authorized to brief the press and spoke on condition of anonymity.
.....
Russia doubled the number of its troops in Abkhazia to about 6,000 early Sunday, landing paratroopers at an airport near the Black Sea. There was heavy fighting in the Kodori Gorge, the only area in Abkhazia that Georgia controls, with Russian paratroopers ferried in by helicopter.

[svinayak]

News Analysis
In Georgia Clash, a Lesson on U.S. Need for Russia

By HELENE COOPER
Published: August 9, 2008

WASHINGTON — The image of President Bush smiling and chatting with Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin of Russia from the stands of the Beijing Olympics even as Russian aircraft were shelling Georgia outlines the reality of America’s Russia policy. While America considers Georgia its strongest ally in the bloc of former Soviet countries, Washington needs Russia too much on big issues like Iran to risk it all to defend Georgia.

And State Department officials made it clear on Saturday that there was no chance the United States would intervene militarily.

Mr. Bush did use tough language, demanding that Russia stop bombing. And Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanded that Russia “respect Georgia’s territorial integrity.”


“What the Russians just did is, for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, they have taken a decisive military action and imposed a military reality,” said George Friedman, chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis and intelligence company. “They’ve done it unilaterally, and all of the countries that have been looking to the West to intimidate the Russians are now forced into a position to consider what just happened.”


Russia’s emerging aggressiveness is now also timed with America’s preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan, and the looming confrontation with Iran. These counterbalancing considerations mean that Moscow is in the driver’s seat, administration officials acknowledged.

“We’ve placed ourselves in a position that globally we don’t have the wherewithal to do anything,” Mr. Friedman of Stratfor said. “One would think under those circumstances, we’d shut up.”

One senior administration official, when told of that quote, laughed. “Well, maybe we’re learning to shut up now,” he said. He asked that his name not be used because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the issue.

C. J. Chivers contributed reporting.

[Singha]

I think before they agree to any ceasefire, Gori is going to be used as a flytrap to draw in the best of
georgian armed forces and then smashed from all angles down to ground level.
and the "kodori gorge" similarly.

and hours before signing of ceasefire there might be shock n awe KH101 type strikes on important
landmarks in Tbilisi like parliament, courthouse, presidential palace and so on...

if some hawkish types prevail in russian staff, they might even unleash the 15ton bomb
Tu160 tested last year. dropping that on a small city like Gori would just about flatten
most of it and drive the fear of god in anyone left behind.

[Nayak]

has to hurry to sh*t on the rail track before the 9.30 local rolls in.

Seems to be a frequent point raised by our resident bowel movement expert.

[sudarshan]

hnair: I suppose that's one way of looking at it . No offense.

...before the 9:30 local rolls in...

You mean before the 8:30 local rolls in at 9:30.

One more thing. If it comes to a downhill event, there wont be the customary 90,000 prisoners who will reach home to their families. Something we need to get used to. But something we should not support.

And something we can learn from too, I guess.

Peace,
Sudarshan

[svinayak]

U.S. sets bear trap in the Caucasus

M.K. Bhadrakumar

The master plotters in Washington and London will keenly watch how Dmitry Medvedev’s leadership handles the crisis.

Anyone who thought Beijing Olympics had to be Friday’s lead news story on CNN and BBC was in for surprise. It gave way to the Caucasus developments.

There is no reason to doubt CNN and BBC’s judgment that the killing of tens of hundreds of people in the Caucasian region of South Ossetia on Friday may turn out to be a landmark event in post-Soviet Russia& #8217;s relations with the West. The Caucasus lies deeply embedded in Russian collective consciousness. Their history and culture and indeed the security of Mother Russia are inextricably linked with the Caucasus. Anyone who lived among Russians would know there is not a living room in the whole of Russia with a book shelf that wouldn’t have Leo Tolstoy’s Kavkazsky Plennik [A Prisoner in the Caucasus]. Zhilin is a household name in Russia, the officer in the Czarist army posted in the Caucasus who took leave of absence and ran into high adventure as he left for home upon receiving a letter from his mother who wrote, “I am getting old, and should like to see my beloved son before I die. Come and say good-bye to me, bury me, and then return to service, God willing. I have found a girl for you, who is sensible and good and landed too. If you like her, you might marry her and stay for good.”

Moscow finds itself in an unenviable situation. Russia cannot avoid an intervention and is obliged to intervene, as the majority of South Ossetians are Russian citizens. The Georgian attack was intended as a provocation. The attack killed 13 Russian soldiers and injured 150 and took over 2,000 civilian lives, mostly Russian citizens. The South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali has been razed to the ground. Over 30,000 refugees have crossed the Russian border.

[Rahul M]

acharya, please give the link when you post something.

[vina]

The fighting in Georgia is a disaster. The folks getting killed are civilians. Around 2000 if S. Ossetia and now with the fighting spreading to georgia proper, more to come.

The Russians are going to simply destroy the Georgian armed forces. Make no mistake about it. The armistice terms will be extremely tough to say the least . It basically will finish the "Rose" revolution or whatever it was. The terms of armistice will include strict limits on the kinds of arms Georgia can possess, no membership of NATO (not that the Georgians themselves would have any appetite for that kind of thing after this incident) . I think it will go even further.

I think Mikhail Saakashvilli should be brought before an international war crimes tribunal for crimes against civilians. Milosevic got it in the neck for exactly same reasons and the siege of Srebrenica was a similar incident. The attack on the S. Ossetian capital was inexcusable. BM-21 Grad, saturation attacks on populated areas of civilians is inexcusable and have no reasons other than ethnic cleansing and mass murder. The entire Georgian leadership has to go.

That Mikhail whatever might have got his law degree in the US (wher I wonder) ,but he obviously is an idiot. Fanciful notions of NATO taking on Russia to cover Georgia's a*s , especially when they go and provoke Russia with a shooting match is straight out of the Paki /Musharraf play book , from 1965 to 1971 to Kargil (last one being nukes + America hopefully covering a*s). This will serve as a severe lesson to those former East European states that were looking to play off the west vs Russia and trying to get NATO cover (like the Pakis with Nukes + earlier American cover) to try and needle Russia for altogether ridiculous and stupid reasons.

[Singha]

no pix of damage in ossetian capital has been released in western propaganda channels
yet but if indeed 2000 people died, then russian HR orgs and red cross will be documenting
it now before burial (though cnn/bbc will not cover it).

I am kinda thinking the prospects of Gori not being a heap of rubble in exchange are
diminishing by the hour. anyone with any interest in his life would saddle and up
decamp for the hills but the georgian army is pouring into Gori and prepared to defend
it. could be ejatly what Ru wants, a large georgian field formation is a well defined area
which they can surround and do the khalkin-gol, stalingrad thing....lots of institutional
playbooks down that channel.

fresh units of MSTA/Koalitza type SP guns and huge supplies of ammo are probably
being rushed to the front.

Amirkhan has its work cut out to minimize the damage to its protege and pull its
chestnuts off the fire.

Bear in general extracts a terrible retribution on the enemy civilian pop when its
own people have been brutalized. "East prussia" in WW2 was a good example.

[BSR Murthy]

Saakashvili graduated from the School of International Law of the Kiev State University (Ukraine) in 1992. He briefly worked as a human rights officer for the interim State Council of Georgia following the overthrow of President Zviad Gamsakhurdia before receiving a fellowship from the United States State Department (via the Edmund S. Muskie/FREEDOM Support Act (FSA) Graduate Fellowship Program).

He received an LLM from Columbia Law School in 1994 and Doctor of Laws degree from The George Washington University Law School the following year. In 1995, he also received a diploma from the International Institute of Human Rights in Strasbourg, France.

Wiki

Idiot nevertheless [citation needed]

[Karan Dixit]

(Now we know why Sashi Tahroor was blocked from becoming UN chief.)

That's a stretch . Not getting the otiose United Nations top post is no loss for us as a nation. That was Tharoor's personal career setback. Musharraf could be the next Secretary General and it wouldn't make any difference to the world.
Let us not give more importance or courtesy to UN offices than strictly necessary. All meaningful work happens at 'lower' levels anyway.

I did not say it was a loss for Indian nation. I am just saying that certain countries were not too excited about Sashi Tahroor and I understand why.

[Raju]

came in email

Wag the Dog: How western media fakes the news.

Interesting how western journalists in the conflict zone in Georgia-Ossetia are making up "graphic" images of war. Look at this for example. On the first picture from Reuters we see this man all dressed in new clean jeans in the middle of war and dust:


Then, same man is sitting and "holding the dead body of his relative" and crying again:




On this photo, a corpse is grabbing the nurses arm, spooky. Also note, the corpse from previous picture is now lying face down, his crying relative is not in sight anymore:



Here a woman cries over the body, no rubble or shrapnel around, and it is clean in the background:


Now, what is this boy doing in the same 3 square feet as the woman, where could he be carried from? Looks like posing in front of journalists. His face looks quite calm for someone wounded in the leg.


art of psy-ops or info war ?

[Singha]

a fellowship from the United States State Department (via the Edmund S. Muskie/FREEDOM Support Act (FSA) Graduate Fellowship Program).

ahem ahem...harvard, yale, columbia, univs in washington seem very plugged into
such program.

no doubt other progs exist to support the wards of the indian elites

[Paul]

Something is not right....this sort of reaction from Big Bear was to be expected. Still Georgia went ahead and did this....

But if Bharakumar's reasoning has logic and the Bear is to be drawn into a giant trap in the caucasus, the confliction in Chechenya must be revived.

If Putin is smart, he will pulverize the Georgian armed forces, destroy it's economy but refrain from marching into Tblisi. Last thing Roos needs is a debilitating guerilla war in the forbidden god forsaken caucasus.

[svinayak]

http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/11/stories ... 580800.htm

[svinayak]

Something is not right....this sort of reaction from Big Bear was to be expected. Still Georgia went ahead and did this....

But if Bharakumar's reasoning has logic and the Bear is to be drawn into a giant trap in the caucasus, the confliction in Chechenya must be revived.

If Putin is smart, he will pulverize the Georgian armed forces, destroy it's economy but refrain from marching into Tblisi. Last thing Roos needs is a debilitating guerilla war in the forbidden god forsaken caucasus.

Idea is to make a problem at the border so that they dont get any other idea on US which is occupied on Iraq and Afghan
Everybody is creating a backup plan

Only India does not have one

[Philip]

This is turning out to be Shakashvili's equivalent to the "Bay of Pigs" disaster,as like those CIA/Mafia Cubano honchos,his hyperventilating for (promised?) US and NATO/EU support is falling upon deaf ears.All that he is getting is sympathy and little tea! Shakashvili couldn't have planned this all alone,without getting a strong indication of US/NATO support.Bush's last visit to Georgia and the open promises of NATO membership,plus anything else made in private have obviously been the factors that were responsible for Shakashvili to launch his offensive.To clip Putin's wings,humiliate him and the new Russian president in the eyes of the world was the other goal.Both have failed miserably.He and his co-conspirators carefully picked their timing when Putin was at the Olympics,but grossly miscalculated the capability of the Russian forces to mobilise and rout them, like Gen.Musharraf at Kargil and Saddam in Kuwait;not to mention our "mission accomplished" hero ,Bush in Iraq! The speed with which Putin took charge on the ground has surprised the west and has reinforced his stature worldwide as a man of action who acts decisively in a crisis.Shakashvili and his backers have been reduced to buffoon status and the "Clown of the Caucasus" will now be desperate to save not only his face but also his backside as Georgia faces Russian punishment for its adventurism.

Putin and Medvedev now have a golden opportunity to not only punish Georgia for its recklessness,but also to seize the strategic initiative in the region.Georgia will have to pay a huge price in lost face,apart from some humiliating demands from Russia.It will certainly lose the territory of S.Ossetia and Abkhazia,given the NATO sponsored precedent in Kosovo,plus might very well have its most important asset in the eyes of the west,the BTC pipeline destroyed completely,which would render it a worthless commodity to the west! The Georgian gambit is not an isolated incident but a carefully covertly planned move by the CIA and probably also involve British "interests",as it appears to be part of a greater struggle for the energy resources of the former Soviet Union and ex-Warsaw Pact nations.Cold War 2 (as also described by a Georgian spokesman) has begun with a bang.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... siles.html
Georgia: Russia targets key oil pipeline with over 50 missiles

Russian jets targeted a key oil pipeline with over 50 missiles in a weekend bombing raid in Georgia that raised fears the conflict will tighten Moscow's stranglehold on Europe's energy supplies.

By Damien McElroy in Rustavi, Georgia
Last Updated: 6:22AM BST 11 Aug 2008

The oil pipeline is a soft target for Russian artilary Photo: AFP / GETTY
Deep craters pockmark the landscape south of the Georgian capital Tblisi in a Y-shaped pattern straddling the British-operated pipeline.

The attack left two deep holes less than 100 yards either side of a pressure vent on the pipeline. Shrapnel of highly engineered munitions litters the area.

There was no visible damage to the pipeline. Its vulnerability is summed up by a yellow hazard sign next to the vent warning against digging in the area. Anyone venturing on to the site is warned against smoking.

Local police recorded 51 strikes. "I have no doubt they wanted to target the pipeline, there is nothing else here," said Giorgi Abrahamisvili, a policeman who witnessed the attack.

"It was terribly intense, the smell of cordite spread everywhere. I had to abandon my car and hide in a ditch but the jets weren't interested in other targets."

BP operates the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports one per cent of the world's oil needs, or one million barrels a day from Azerbaijan to the Mediterranean. A spokesman played down the impact of the strike, pointing out that pumping was suspended last week because of a terrorist attack in Turkey.

"At the moment the pipeline is not running at any capacity, because there was a fire," the spokesman said.

Georgia is a crucial link in a three country energy corridor vital to Western Europe's oil and gas supply. The £2 billion pipeline is the only major conduit for Central Asian resources not under Russian control.

The Kremlin under Vladimir Putin, Russia's former president and now prime minister, used gas exports to Europe as a tool of foreign policy.

Reduced supplies to eastern Europe forced Russia's neighbours to curtail pro-Western ambitions. Western Europe, especially Germany, is dangerously vulnerable to reduced supplies from Russia at times of political tension.

Georgian politicians accused Russia of waging the war, which Moscow has portrayed as an intervention on behalf of beleaguered renegade enclaves, to achieve wider strategic goals.

"They need control of energy routes," the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili said. "They need sea ports. They need transportation infrastructure. And primarily, they want to get rid of us."

Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, alluded to the importance of the pipeline as he prepared to travel to Georgia and Russia on a mediation mission. He said: "The strategic nature of this region is a secret for no one."

Attacks beyond the borders of the two disputed regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia provoked a mixture of fear and anger among Georgians, who see Russia at war with the country as a whole.

"Churchill should never have helped the Soviet Union," said a local police chief. "I am not a Nazi but Russia is a curse in the world."

[Raju]

So Russian interest lies in complete and total annihalation of Georgia in as little time as possible and ensuring that remnant groups do not sprout out anywhere.

it is a risk, but it is also an opportunity.

[ASPuar]

If I were Putin/Medvedev, Id as for at least:

1. Total change of leadership, resignation of the cabinet and parliament, and fresh elections

2. Handover of Sakashvili and others, determined to be involved in this assault, to Russian authorities

3. Reparations to be paid annually for rebuilding Tskhinvali and to pay the families of the deceased

4. Restriction of Georgian military to 4000, infantry only

5. An undertaking from the new government not to join NATO, and complete right of refusal to Russia of any training activities to be undertaken by Georgian military by foreign forces

[Raju]

this dude stands out of the rest of Georgian soldiers.
he has no patches, wears sun glasses, boonie hat. Looks like a Blackwater type.