Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

[John Snow]

It is not ideology, it is economics

"The business of US government is Business"
"Location Location Location"
"Strategic domination, economic domination, real estate domination"

Are the terms of endearment between US and Pakistan.

(democracy, ideology, peace, co existance are are like miracle bra that only push up what people want to see but not ready to feel!)

Read the role of CIA in Bosnia, and the recruitment of Jihadis from all over the world including Pakistan, just a pointer
Inside Al Qaeda by guna ratna)

Anyway go back to your exotic stimulations.
My last post
Dhanyawad

[brihaspati]

An idea coming up for discussion on the desirability of the "Presidential form of government" for India is relevant as a future strategic scenario question too.

Apart from the advantages probably discussed many times in the past and as discussed by Murthy_ji , I would see such a form of government as a weakening of regional differentiations that prevent consolidation of the core. Any such candidate is forced to accommodate all regions rather than getting away with narrow regional/factional loyalties. This forces a kind of national focus on the nature of politics. Thus the presidential form by direct election is desirable from the future strategic viewpoint. In solving the problems or removing the barriers before bringing in such a form - a lot of issues that now prevents nation formation has to be faced and tackled - issues like regional/linguistic distrust, common acceptable language, a national agenda, a common agenda for all "nationals", etc. These are also problems that are used by interested elite in the periphery to maintain hostility and seek to milk the core. In moving towards the Presidential form we will have to face politically at least the fundamental flaws in the body of the core.

Points from the other thread - and relevant in the core-periphery framework:

(1) The idea is partly associated by default with the so-called "Hindu Right" and we can be assured of a media blitzkrieg in dubbing any such proposal as India's march towards "fascism". Need to think on ways to counter such propaganda. Even the peripheral countries would probably pick this chant up, especially where Islam prevails.

(2) Within "non-revolutionary" setup - we need 2/3 majority in both houses of the Parliament to amend the Constitution, and even then "activists" of the ARoy/Seetalvad/ and a host of parties of the "centre Left" moving the Supreme Court as the legal arbiter of "Constitutional changes". Gaining such a majority on a plank that includes Presidential form of government may not be easy - as the local and regional interests now in each and every party will be alarmed at the possible reduction in "plum" political posts.

(3) need agreement for a focal person acceptable in all "regions" and "linguistic" groups - in fact any regional language she/he uses for even the television debates might actually disqualify her/him in the eyes of some other region/language. English could be the common medium but then the reach is severely limited -(could be feasible after English is made compulsory for all schools - )

[enqyoob]

The REAL solution to Islamic terrorism just hit me when I read this:

we will see onset of poor unemployed youth being guns and sent across to India to claim their 72 virgins...

We need a TV series showing EXACTLY what it is like to be surrounded by 72 "virgins". (In Paki terms, that would be girls under 7 and goats under 2 weeks) for any extended period of time.

I believe the madarssas would empty overnight.

[brihaspati]

Narayananji,

We need a TV series showing EXACTLY what it is like to be surrounded by 72 "virgins". (In Paki terms, that would be girls under 7 and goats under 2 weeks) for any extended period of time.
I believe the madarssas would empty overnight.

That could be seen as highly insulting for the likes of ARoy, Teestaji, Sagarikaji - are you insinuating that they fall below the standards expected as outlined by you and are not inspiration enough to empty the madrassah's?

[Prem]

Narayananji,

We need a TV series showing EXACTLY what it is like to be surrounded by 72 "virgins". (In Paki terms, that would be girls under 7 and goats under 2 weeks) for any extended period of time.
I believe the madarssas would empty overnight.

That could be seen as highly insulting for the likes of ARoy, Teestaji, Sagarikaji - are you insinuating that they fall below the standards expected as outlined by you and are not inspiration enough to empty the madrassah's?

Jihadi prefer Virgins plus these ladies are past the ripe age of 6 to be ideal wife.
This is not say grace of ATM cannot make these ladies worthy for harem use.

[brihaspati]

Here is an excerpt from the http://www.economist.com/world/asia/dis ... d=10702666

The Maldives
Sea, sun and jihad
Feb 14th 2008 | DELHI
From The Economist print edition

Islamist extremism rears its head in the tourist paradise
Scholars who studied in Pakistan and the Middle East in the 1980s and 1990s returned imbued with a conservative strain of Wahhabi Islam, and found the Maldives' young population receptive. In the past ten years more and more women have started wearing headscarves or burqas. Young men have tended to boycott government-licensed mosques.
The richest country in South Asia in terms of GDP per head, the Maldives has widespread internet access, in Male at least. “There is a tendency to imitate foreign terror groups, even if there are no formal links,” says Mohamed Nasheed, the information minister. The government long ignored these developments. Indeed, President Gayoom promoted Islam as the cornerstone of Maldivian national identity.

This same M. Nasheed is now the new head of Maldives after quitting Gayoom's ministry just before the elections, and was also imperative in the joint declaration with the GOI to tackle piracy. The Maldives top Islamic council has members who support the death penalty for apostasy, etc.

So far Maldives does not seem to be appearing in our radar, probably becuase it appears insignificant in the scheme of things. However, thinking of what I have mentioned as the "ring of terror", Maldives, is going to be a key strategic link in the chain. Sooner or later joint anti-piracy operations may actually provide information to the Jihadi side about how to evade such surveillance and render such operations ineffective.

[John Snow]

I was walking with Archie my partner in morning walks. As usual we discuss everything under the sun including my neighbors.
I was pensive as thoughts of Jupiter were swirling all around my head like rings. To break the monotonous walk Archie said to me hey! You Indians are very strong in logic and strategic thinking. You guys have a very large standing Army, formidable Air Force which made Yanks sit up and notice recently at Nelli’s Air force base multi nation exercises, you Navy is one of blue water in that area. I was getting a picture of where Archie was headed, I know Archie what you are saying, You are basically telling me that Indian leadership is laid back and lazy not to have prepared for this asymmetric warfare by TS Pakistan, a nation on dole and drugs. I was defensive and then I said let me try what my learned friend brihaspati said on Archie. Archie I started, we want to make TSP pay with out firing a shot by encircling with 125,000 troops in Afghanistan. I even told what our brilliant MKN said to Paki official “… we can even send Troops to Afghanistan” in a triumphant voice.

For few minutes Archie was mesmerized with that answer, I thought I had him on the mat with a smirk on my face, but Archie is not easy and very intelligent guy, he camly said Look John, they say History repeats itself, Do you have a Monroe like doctrine clearly enunciated? No he said himself and then proceeded
Do you recall that Mrs. Indira Gandhi the last male PM standing and a real Lion called Sardar Swaran Singh was her FM before all this bunch of bozos started becoming PM. I said yes with a little irritation in my voice, what’s your point? They together negotiated a Indio Soviet treaty of friendship, where in the treaty said attack on India is attack on USSR? This after bozo Nixon insulted IG. I said yes so what? Archie cleared his throat to administer the coup de grace, You see John, in chess you castle your king before the enemy can implement his strategy that’s what IG did. I thought man this guy is going in circles as we took turn to head home from the walk. Archie continued If India sends 125, 000 troops and has no will or Monroe doctrine enunciated, what if TSP sign a friendship treat with India’s thorn in the Bed BDESH and puts couple of Shaeens , Gauri, Ghada’s with 1.5 Nukes, it can even extend to Sri Lanka and Nepal the very same terms what are you Indians going to do! You don’t act against terror, you continue to be consistently soft state, are you going to blockade BDESH and SL?
Welcome to Back to the future, a la Cuban Missile crisis. I hated Archie in that moment but we had reached our home.

( by the way Archie is 9 year old Border collie TN born and very intelligent, who took offense at Kerala’s CM chutiayanandan recently)

[Abhi_G]

[quote="brihaspati"]
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/dis ... d=10702666
[quote]The Maldives
Sea, sun and jihad

Wonder if Lakshadweep is in GOI's radar!

[abhischekcc]

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/dis ... d=10702666

I doubt it. Even Mumbai is not in GOI's radar. The PM is busy spending sleepless nights thinking about muslim terrorists bombing Adelaide

[enqyoob]

You guys have a very large standing Army,

That would be right. Trouble is, the Army is asked to just "stand", not go kick the musharrafs of the pakis.

[brihaspati]

John Snow wrote
Archie continued If India sends 125, 000 troops and has no will or Monroe doctrine enunciated, what if TSP sign a friendship treat with India’s thorn in the Bed BDESH and puts couple of Shaeens , Gauri, Ghada’s with 1.5 Nukes, it can even extend to Sri Lanka and Nepal the very same terms what are you Indians going to do! You don’t act against terror, you continue to be consistently soft state, are you going to blockade BDESH and SL?

Archie is right to point this out, even if a Border Collie (isn't he feeling bored in TN, or in God's-own-country - or does he find plenty of "sheep" to herd and chase?). Please convey this to Archie - that a Government that does not have the will or vision to formulate the necessary political target - the necessary versions of Monroe type doctrines- cannot or will not even think of implementing the type of strategic objectives we have been discussing. Such strategic targets are only conceived in conjunction with a corresponding political doctrine.

What makes us think that whether we scratch Pak tails or not, China is not placing or will not place nukes in Nepal or in various locations in Tibet, or along the eastern border with India? Indian response is to let China know that any such thoughts should be banished with Chinese green tsa as India has already placed such devices in proper places to ensure sterilizing south-western China for decades if China tries anything funny. Dropping hints that such threats of nuke war between China and India can create a whole lot of uncomfortable problems for all those caught in between - BD, Myanmar, Nepal - that they should do their bit to see to it that their off-and-on friend China does not try out anything funny. Moreover, they should be smilingly told in a very concerned-for-their-safety voice that any country in the neighbourhood where TSP or China places nuke missiles will be subject to "nuke sterilization".

We don't allow BD, or SL to "drift" rudderless in a strategic sea, likely to catch Chinese or TSP winds in their sails. It is important to turn our attention to the periphery that we neglected so far, and build up solid military-economic ties as part of our overall strategy. This may mean that we have to side with them in their internal fights and thus sacrifice certain "obligations" that we may have from components within the "core". But it is time that the various subunits of the nation of India as the core learns to give up their individual agendas and subsume it for a national agenda. It is important to have Myanmar, Thailand, BD, SL on board in a solid network of economic and military ties. Nepal is already sort of dicey, but attempts have to continue nevertheless. Nepal being landlocked can only be supplied overland from China, which places some restrictions. The Indian Ocean neighbours can still somehow be retrieved.

[brihaspati]

Swamy_G posted the original StratFor link on the Geo-political thread :

http://democraticlabor.vox.com/library/ ... =feed-atom

Friedman talks nicely about the subcontinent as a whole, which delights me quite a lot. But imitating JS I would suggest that he is limited by his understanding of the past of the subcontinent. It is here, by simply stressing the "geographical constraints" that he errs - a geopgraphical constraint is a constraint only in context of a given level of technology and means of communications. When you could only move troops by horse, a continent wide empore would be difficult to hold for a long time, when you did not have aircraft, you could not fight across large bodies of water or mountains effectively, and castles were good to hold on to.

Friedman writes :

India’s Geopolitical Imperatives:

The geography of the subcontinent constrains the behavior of governments that arise there. If there is to be an independent India, and if it is to be a stable and secure nation-state, it must do the following things:

1.Achieve suzerainty in the Ganges River basin. The broad, braided plains of the Ganges basin are among the most fertile in the world and guarantee a massive population. India must become the premier power in this heartland. This does not mean that such power must be wielded by a unified, centralized authority. A coalition of powers can be functional, and even somewhat hostile powers such as Bangladesh can be tolerated so long as they do not challenge India's authority or security.

But this very population density, dependence on modern sophisticated water storage methods and its exposed stretched nature all along the foothills of the Himalayas does also make it vulnerable to modern forms of war technology - wmd strikes, biological/chemical/radiocative contagion can quickly spread and persist in the water networks, especially if it is within Chinese missile range. Tolerance of hostile powers should be undertaken only if liquidating them is costly - otherwise such tolerance simply can allow the threat to grow.

2.Expand throughout the core of the subcontinent until it reaches all natural barriers. Forests, hills and rivers aside, there is little else in the confines of the subcontinent that limits India's writ. "Control" of the additional territories can be a somewhat informal and loose affair. The sheer population of the Ganges basin really requires only that no foreign entity be allowed to amass a force capable of overwhelming the Ganges region.

Friedman seems to have this historical invasions somewhere in the back of his mind. Why does an enemy have to amass a force capable of overhwleming the Gangetic basin? It simply has to break a few dams in the Himalayas or set up a couple of nukes - both of which China is capable of doing. Occupying the Gangetic basin and holding on to it in the long run is no easy task. The very water channels Friedman mentions can make prolonged military occupation quite painful, although overrunning not so difficult. Moreover the vast water-logged plains can also make occupying armies sitting ducks if the heights of the Vindhyas are not occupied. Even historically the Islamic invasion reached the Bengal delta quickly but quickly degenerated into fragmented principalities with powers like the Chandelas, or the Orissis surviving on the flanks.

3.Advance past the patch of land separating the Ganges basin from the Indus River basin and dominate the Indus region (meaning Pakistan). The Indus Valley is the only other significant real estate within reach of India, and the corridor that accesses it is the only viable land invasion route into India proper. (Modern India has not achieved this objective, with implications that will be discussed below.)

Expanding from the Gangetic valley is not strategically efficient -andthe aim is not to just control the Indus Valley, the aim is to isolate the Indus Valley from the North. This can only be done if India goes beyond the Indus Valley to the North and West. However Can it leave the entrance to the Kashnir Valley on its right flank unprotected as a corridor for the Chinese to move in?

4.With the entire subcontinent under the control (or at least the influence) of a centralized power, begin building a navy. Given the isolation of the subcontinent, any further Indian expansion is limited to the naval sphere. A robust navy also acts as a restraint upon any outside power that might attempt to penetrate the subcontinent from the sea.
These imperatives shape the behavior of every indigenous Indian government, regardless of its ideology or its politics.

The Navy's domination of the Indian Ocean is something we all want, but no known power before the Europeans really dominated India simply by using the sea. Is Friedman hinting that in the future we may have powerful navies from the Indian Ocean rim or from outside threatening a sea based invasion?

It is wrong to limit visions of Indian expansion to the sea. Friedman omits the other possibilities, expansion into South East Asia, and further into Central-North-East Asia, as expansions need not have to be direct/overt. Crucially Indian expansion into North of Kashmir is important and distracting and harassing China is necessary until Tibet is created as an independent nation. Similarly expansion into North-East India is also needed, to contain Chinese threat.

But for both, this is merely fencing. Neither would be in a position militarily to exploit an opening. Stationing sufficient force in Tibet to challenge the Chinese People's Liberation Army would outstrip India's resources, and for little purpose. Using Nepal as a base from which to invade India would be similarly difficult and pointless for Beijing. At the moment, therefore, there is no Indo-Chinese geopolitical hostility.

This is completely wrong - while India doesn't really have the guts to encourage terrorist networks against China, China continues to do this overtly (by protecting terrorist organizations from getting banned by world bodies) as well as covertly, and may very well be preparing to further militarily weaken India and take up more srategically important territory. Neutralizing China and Pakistan both is an essential part of strategy for India.

India will go with the flow, but given its mountainous enclosure it will feel little of the flow. Outside its region, India has no major strategic interests, though it would be happy to see a devolution of Tibet from China if that carried no risk to India, and it is always interested in the possibility of increasing its own naval power (but never at the cost of seriously reshaping its economy). India's fundamental interest will always come from within , from its endless, shifting array of regional interests, ethnic groups and powers. The modern Indian republic governs India. And that is more important than any other fact in India.

It is good if the world outside believes so! It will be very very convenient for us - for Friedman again makes the mistake of assuming historical repeatbility, the endless shifting array of regional interests did not prevent an EU from happening, and India's geopgraphy actually makes it much much more easier to consolidate. It already has a common cultural substrate suppressed for a variety of historical reasons which no longer exist. But as long as the world thinks we are not going to be capable of doing it, it is good!

[John Snow]

The GOI never had the will, nor will it have to think in grad strategies.

I would not be surprised if PRC already has Nukes in Nepal.
They have listening posts in Burma we did not even pip squeek.

Just watch this space SL and BD will have a strategic relationship with PRC (TSP) very very soon.

Just all this BR visions are time pass dreams.

Just one pointer to buttress the above

We cant even resist incursions in AP, the most recent challenge IA gave to PRC was holding hand in a human chain a la Gandhi mode.

( The explanation in BR at that time was we did not want to attract World community attention as Indo American Nuke Nutering program was in progress )

But as Archie says a little bark now and then will atleast sho(e) away the Geese....

We cant take on Bdesh by the way and call its bluff....

Good luck with the stimulations...

[brihaspati]

John Snow wrote
Just watch this space SL and BD will have a strategic relationship with PRC (TSP) very very soon.
Just all this BR visions are time pass dreams.

Yes, SL+BD already hobnob with PRC quite a lot. But there has been recent electoral reverses for the very-keen-to-bed-with-PRC faction in BD, and Sri Lanka is appearing to gain ground on PVK. This could be a good time to launch an economic-military partnership "charm offensive" on the Bay of Bengal rim.

Just one pointer to buttress the above
We cant even resist incursions in AP, the most recent challenge IA gave to PRC was holding hand in a human chain a la Gandhi mode.
( The explanation in BR at that time was we did not want to attract World community attention as Indo American Nuke Nutering program was in progress )

Agreed - I thought it was highly stupid - yes lots of play-acting stuff does go on in foreign-relations, but this, and in such a crucial location? Terrorist-catching exercises or practice in AP with people from "Mao's" own - in a region where only "Mao's others" play ball?

But as Archie says a little bark now and then will atleast sho(e) away the Geese....
We cant take on Bdesh by the way and call its bluff....

Carrot and stick! Carrot and stick!

[SwamyG]

Brihaspati:

Friedman seems to have this historical invasions somewhere in the back of his mind. Why does an enemy have to amass a force capable of overhwleming the Gangetic basin?

A noteworthy map in his article is the Muslim population. He mentions "Hindus" only in the context of history - what happened in the past. When he says India does he really mean Hindus? 'Hindus' is like the 800 pound gorilla that he does not mention explicitly. The moment Pakistan and Bangladesh is mentioned, the role of Islam naturally slips into the context. Is he really talking about the Hindus getting overwhelmed in the Ganges region?

There is a map of Indian population density. Interestingly, Tamil Nadu alone seems to have the lowest ration of Muslim population corresponding to the general population. Thanks to Vijayanagar Empire. The next swath of land is around MP,Bihar etc, but there the population density is very low (compared to others).

However Can it leave the entrance to the Kashnir Valley on its right flank unprotected as a corridor for the Chinese to move in?

He has almost written China off - in terms of any security threat. He counts on the Himalayas, and lack of huge population just across Himalayas in that region.

[brihaspati]

SwamyG wrote
A noteworthy map in his article is the Muslim population. He mentions "Hindus" only in the context of history - what happened in the past. When he says India does he really mean Hindus? 'Hindus' is like the 800 pound gorilla that he does not mention explicitly. The moment Pakistan and Bangladesh is mentioned, the role of Islam naturally slips into the context. Is he really talking about the Hindus getting overwhelmed in the Ganges region?

You know, the 800 pound Gorilla is an endangered species now in Africa? Poaching and loss of habitat.
SwamyG is perhaps right, on second and third readings, Friedman appears to ignore the internal dimension of the problem and treats all the cultural/religious divides as non-existent and the entire population as homogeneous. In our model terms he is assuming that the "core" has been consolidated and formed already.

[SwamyG]

Brihaspati:
One also needs to read Friedman's article in conjunction with the 3 part series he wrote on Pakistan. Again for folks without access to Strat For, all hope is not lost:

Part 1: The Perils of Using Islamism to Protect the Core
Part 2: A Crisis in Indian-Pakistani Relations
Part 3: Making It on Its Own

He seems to be almost begging India to step up and do something about Pakistan. His series gives no future for Pakistan. He understands that Europe or USA can not be the region permanently. And neither can Russia. He sees only India able to lord over those regions. And I think he is saying that India needs to take control of the plains of Pakistan - essentially similar to what BRF gurus have been saying - i.e. don't let the fight happen in Panipat. Of course there are pros and cons. Will India step up in the next few years?

[SwamyG]

Friedman appears to ignore the internal dimension of the problem and treats all the cultural/religious divides as non-existent and the entire population as homogeneous. In our model terms he is assuming that the "core" has been consolidated and formed already.

He has a fixation towards geographic divides. He use Europe's geographic divide to talk about different cultural differences in Europe. He says that divide has been greater to cause a diversity there. But the smaller geographic divides within the subcontinent - he mentions rivers and forests - to have caused less cultural differences. Though he mentions people in terms of lingual differences. Like you say, is he thinking that the core exists already? If yes, then it would only resonate with what Bharatiyas have been saying for ever - we are all one with diversity. Bharat as a concept and a nation has existed for ages - pre-British.

It is like the Stars are aligning and egging Bharat to act. Will it act? Because any action is going to carry pluses and minuses. Do we have leadership to address them? It definitely looks like Pakistan is going to dissolve in our life time. That would in itself make India act.

Is the World wanting us to do something or am I just imagining things?
It is like the Class Teacher assigning a Class Leader (or Class Monitor) to control the class in his/her absence.

[brihaspati]

SwamyG,

It is like the Stars are aligning and egging Bharat to act. Will it act? Because any action is going to carry pluses and minuses. Do we have leadership to address them? It definitely looks like Pakistan is going to dissolve in our life time. That would in itself make India act.

Pakistan may actually need help in getting itself dissolved. The question of leadership is both crucial and unimportant, I think. A leader is a focal point who is able to convince people or get their trust that a certain course of action is necessary and beneficial in a given set of circumstances. But a person with brilliant ideas cannot be a leader if the people are not yet ready to be convinced. I think I read in Eric Hoffer a comment I like very much - men like Lenin would have remained one of those many brilliant cafe-dwellers of the whole of the nineteenth century if circumstances like WWI or collapse of the Tsarist regime did not take place. But the role of the leader is crucial also because it is almost certain now that without the presence of Lenin, the Bolsheviks would not have walked the way they did in the days after the February revolution.

So I would think of the leadership question not so important right now. The core has not yet formed fully but only partially - and the people do not as yet think of themselves as belonging to a single nation - there are many nations now within a broad framework of something restricted by laws and circumstances. The crucial task is to establish commonalities of culture and thought that can be shared by as large a population as possible, and which take precedence over all other aspects of individual/group life. Diversity has worked for us very well for a long time, it is okay as long as we do not need to act as a single unit to achieve a common objective. When we need to, diversity becomes a burden and a barrier.

An ideological component to the strategic thinking in our model has to be establishment of an ideological common basis where the maximum number of people can converge. This may need simplifications of our identities and agreeing to give up on certain distinctions we hold on to with pride and obsessions - social stratifications/hierarchies/regionalism/language imperialism (justified sometime only by birth/inheritance). If the people are ready, people themselves will find a leadership.

But a consciousness of the homogeneity of a modern "core" has to be built into every strategic thought we have on the subcontinent and also the deliberate line that what is periphery today we will one day incorporate into the core - expansion is the key (not in "central portion" - this in honour of a dear school teacher who once solemnly declared that he used to play "centre -forward" in soccer - his central portion went forward).

[samuel]

As a nation we, must have a nationalism to follow and defend. This strategic scenario between a core and periphery rests on a core that I assume is driven by Indian nationalism, which is the test for judging people, nations and policies that are for India's interests.

But, first of all, what is Indian nationalism and where in India does it thrive. How can nationalism be made mandatory in governance, despite all that hinders it today.

Instead, we seem to be focussed on how a core (arising from nationalism) supports us against a marginal or not so marginal periphery. But that seems besides the point in some ways, because it is not clear that Indian nationalism is alive and well. On what basis do you suppose that? If it were, our actions today would be far more resounding, wouldn't you say?

S

[shiv]

But, first of all, what is Indian nationalism and where in India does it thrive. How can nationalism be made mandatory in governance, despite all that hinders it today.

S

Excellent point Samuel and I agree wholeheartedly. The discussion of "India as core" is good, but becomes weak and pointless if th people of the core do not see themselves as part of the core "India" but end up seeing themselves as "Hindus", "Muslims" "Yadavs", Schecduled castes", "poor", "Mumbaikars" and not "Biharis", Seeing such splits and engineering such splits is what Pakistan is all about.

Quite apart from that people on BRF have spent thousands of hours debating how the US is bad or Evanjihdis are bad, but until brihaspati started this thread nobody has been able to pin down the need for recognizing Indian nationalism as core. But while Brihaspati is taking the core for granted and looking outside, I would agree with you that a reiteration and consolidation of what is core is essential.

I see children's education as well as re education of the intellectual classes and polity as essential parts of reiterating Indian nationalism.

[enqyoob]

a dear school teacher who once solemnly declared that he used to play "centre -forward" in soccer - his central portion went forward).

Er.... in FOOTBALL (I don't know about "soccer"), the Centre Forward is the player who plays at the middle, at the forward most position, as opposed to the Outside Left, Outside Right, Inside Left, etc.The centre forward position is usually played by someone who is fast on his feet and able to dribble the ball well. The ability to kick goals is also good, but that does not seem to be much emphasized in India. It is a position with massive H&D.

In India the term "striker" is not used in this context because (a) striking goals is not emphasized (b) the Full Back scores more goals (usually self-goals) and (c) it means: "Someone who refuses to do any work", as in "National Leader".

[vsudhir]

Slightly OT onlee,

But Jupiter guru's ken and posting style remind me of a certain S.Valkan we had grace the phorum not that long ago...

[samuel]

Yeah, we don't unfortunately reiterate Indian Nationalism any more.
When I heard my grandfather talk of nationalism, I recognized what it meant. How do we do it today?

We've marginalized Indian nationalism to a Hindu nationalism and empty space, thereby leaving non-Hindus in the lurch for anti-national forces to pick up, shoving Hindus in the dock for being liberal, and leaving India without a nationalist core, thus making it all too easy for even those in the periphery to divide and conquer.

To be sure, we know very well that the forces that are weakening this core are internal and external. I hope part of this thread can look at booting a nationalist core in the face of both. Whilst I appreciate very much an imagination of what such a core can do, I would appreciate even more insights for raising the core.

To do so, as a first guess, a restorative force that retakes the center is essential. Such a force will promote Indian nationalism and effectively place the boundary as being for or against India, again, and make this the test that all within our periphery will recognize to be tested by, with natural, primitive and direct consequences for falling afoul.

Although I feel that there is a strong Hindu foundation to a centered Indian nationalism, I am equally happy or happier if there were a constitutional foundation to it. But Is there, where?

In reality, with many a separatrix readily available for more immediate gains to any and all, we hope that nationalism is somehow an emergent policy. But it doesn't emerge as a natural expression of our constitution and I can't come up with ways to counter that tendency without falling back on a Hindu core, but counter we must I feel.

So, I agree with the goal of educating our children and re-eduating many a policy maker. What would be more useful is a practical and easy to disseminate syllabus. What should that be?

S

[John Snow]

Archie wants to belittle me today and he toyin with me, he ran into my Study/den and sniffed around my collection of books pulles, "War with out End" Dilip Hiro, "Inside Alqaeda" Gunaratna, "Ghost wars" Steve Coll and "Bear Trap"
and whoofed Indians fail
because there is jo*@ who heads our National Security under a bigger muff with PMS

From 2006 July 31 outlook magazine issue

Narayanan’s instinct is to micro-manage. This has failed as he has too much on his plate, say insiders.

Archie added Indians have enough Intelligence but this guy keeps it under his butt instead of keeping it upstairs!

A key indicator of the systemic lacunae is the nearly defunct status of several intelligence institutions.




Narayanan’s instinct is to micro-manage. This has failed as he has too much on his plate, say insiders.


"The intelligence coordination group, the technical coordination group, the strategic policy group and the national information board have not met in over a year. This has severely hampered coordination between the plethora of agencies tasked to gather intelligence, leading to turf wars or needless duplication of effort.
Even the functioning of the Intelligence Bureau, India’s premier counter-intelligence organisation, has come in for criticism. "How can we expect the IB to function if a large part of its resources is directed at serving the ruling political party of the day," rues E.N. Rammohan, a member of the national security advisory board. "Instead of concentrating on security issues, they are busy chasing the Opposition so that the ruling party is kept in power. Is that the job of the IB?"

And the jokes pile up said Archie (mind you he said this from 2006 Outlook report and we are in 2009" he said with a serious scowl and sharp Bark.

The advocates of the grandiose "hot pursuit" theory find no takers within the security agencies. "Our contingency plans are ready to respond to a crisis at any level and can be implemented on the orders of the government," says Lt General Shantonu Chowdhury, former vice chief of army staff. "But any decision must be carefully weighed before steps are taken," he cautions. Even former RAW chief A.S. Dulat, who also has the unique distinction of having had a long career with the IB, agrees that any punitive action would eventually prove to be futile. "We must remember that unless the core issues of Kashmir and Pakistan are not addressed, we will have to continue bracing ourselves for similar terrorist attacks. I personally think that the prime minister’s response is almost perfect."
So far, Manmohan Singh’s calibrated toughness has won much appreciation within the security agencies. They feel that it has shown the right measure of statesmanship and resolve to combat terror. Now is the time, they say, to convert that resolve into action on the ground.

That is what we have and we are planning war in Tibet , Afghanistan 120,000 troops....

Archie looked suddenly more intelligent than a million strong Army. ( As you might have seen he sleeps most of the time dreaming a realistic strategic role for India under Mumble Squeek Singh)

[brihaspati]

Samuelji, Shivji, Naraynanji,

I think all of you are saying certain things in common : I will try to summarize and think out loudly

(1) Does the core exist at all? My answer is that the core exists but we are not conscious of it. One way to realize this is by asking ourselves or another "Indian", (by law/birth/residence/whatever) about a concrete feature/characteristic and ask - is this Indian or non-Indian or anti-Indian? I think we will see a pattern emerge. Even affiliations to religions/cultures which claim to have their centres outside the subcontinent, still have some idea of "India" even if they do not share it. Apart from a small confused section, most - even the "uneducated/illiterate" have a deep sense of attachment to their "land" (not necessarily in the Nandigram sense), to natural features to which they feel an almost mystical reverence, an inarticulate and ill-understood but deeply felt spirituality, oral traditions and epics, rites and rituals - and a strange separation of the daily, mundane life from the "other" life - of non-mundane meanings and ambitions, ranging from seeking eternity to being a "good parent" or "charitable" or "writing a book". Ask specific questions, and there will be no confusions about whether "this is our way" or "this is not our way". It is this core that all the spiritual innovators of the past found in their travels and activated according to their personal visions and agendas - from Adi Shankara, to Vasavanna, Nanak, Chaitanya, and to a certain extent Gandhiji. We need to activate this sense of identification with the land, reinterpret in modern terms the essence of the epics and sagas, and reclarify features which have been misinterpreted to create divisions. And there is no way we can escape tackling religion in doing this - but we can use religion itself "against" itself. Further discussions are prohibited on BR - as it will go into religion!

(2) Indian nationalism does not have to be a "Hindu" nationalism - it can simply be Bharatyia nationalism. There is a spiritual if not entirely religio-cultural continuity that spans almost all of India. But this needs clarification in modern terms. It can be compared to looking at yourself in a mirror - until you do that you are not that conscious of how you appear. The mirror is the brutally honest facing up and open discussion of every bit of our cultural/ritual/belief/practice existence - and filter out the bits that need to go - like we decide to get a haircut when we see it has grown too long, or that the shirt does not fit and needs to be replaced, or the trouser is dirty and needs a wash. My own extensive travels, especially at so called "lower levels" had convinced me quite early - that we do not need fundamental or drastic cosmetic surgery, merely grooming and a change of clothes.

(3) I have never really claimed that the core exists in a fully consolidated form - in fact I have asked these very question several times in the beginning. This is why, we need to simplify and reclarify the belief systems - as they were originally meant to be, so that we have less and less distinguishing points to construct distinct identities. But given the rapid growth of hostility in the periphery we cannot wait until the core is fully "formed" - and we have to think of both aspects of the problem simultaneously.

(4) However, in facing up to the peripheral hostility, we ironically strengthen our core and move towards "completing" it. The best devil is the foreign "devil" against whom it is so much easier to unite and learn to overcome differences. It is so tempting perhaps to be sarcastic about it - but we have to change this way of thinking. Our sarcasm simply expresses our helplessness - and a recognition of our weakness, but the task is to overcome it, and we can start by denying it. We are what we think ourselves to be.

We really have to start "dreaming" - I can already imagine the "barbs" coming my way! I will only humbly say, a journey of a thousand li (substitute krosha) starts with one small step, and ideas change, create and shape nations.

I will try to find ways and means of conveying more concrete "answers" within the censorship rules of BR!

[brihaspati]

John Snow wrote
That is what we have and we are planning war in Tibet , Afghanistan 120,000 troops....

Archie looked suddenly more intelligent than a million strong Army. ( As you might have seen he sleeps most of the time dreaming a realistic strategic role for India under Mumble Squeek Singh)

Mumble Squeek Singh can win his squeaking rights, because we give in. We are not concerned about him, we have judged him, found him inadequate, we tolerate him becaiuse we who realize his shortcomings do not have sufficient power to take corrective measures. We can sit down and be bitter about it, but thats giving in to Mumble Squeek Singh or whichever royal family put him up as their whipping boy. On the other hand, we can try not wasting our sarcasm on him, and think of the future steps to take. It may so be that they appear impossible, or daydreams, or unachievable - have we ever dared to think of the heady possibilities if ...just if, they are not so unachievable as they appear to be?

[John Snow]

The nationalism spirit was there and was not monopoly of any party ( i.e. Congress or Jana Sangh/BJP).

The nationalism spirit was spirited away to Swiss accounts with the advent of Italians making India their home.

The need of the hour is leadership with a vision and can do attitude than a feeling that it is only to loot and plunder this country while the ministry lasts.

The core is corrupt tpo the rot and its eating away the nation, which is now steeply embeded with cynicsm. For every honest employee there 100 corrupt. In my recent visit I have seen corruption thrive even in private corporations. Example I wanted to gift a Suzuki scooter 125 cc which was being introduced (at least as of October 2008) to my nephew ( as uncle has after all has come from land of honey and milk to desh), I went to couple of show rooms, I was told to book with a deposit Rs 10,000 and wait for 1.5 to 2 months. Since I wanted to do it (gifting) during my stay I said is there a way I could get the show room display scooter. Then the saleman went and talked to his boss ( a lady) and said sure If I was ready to pay RS 5000 as premium to split with him and his boss!

The less I say about performing puja or booking a cottage in Tirumala the better. The CM himself see to it that Sri Venkateswara has to part a commision to Rajasekhar Reddy funds part of it will be shared with Italian high command I am told. His b-in law who is xtain is the top official (trustee) of Tirupathi I am told.

There is more of internal lexus nexus between politician, Mafia, terrorist police,, Oh I am repeating what our friend Rahul Mehata ( where is now a days?) used to call NJBPRE ( or something like that).

Our hearts where they rocked our cradle,
Our love where we spent our toil,
And our faith, and our hope, and our honor,
We pledge to our native soil.
God gave all men all earth to love,
But since our hearts are small,
Ordained for each one spot should prove
Beloved over all.

~Rudyard Kipling


There is nationalistic spirit among people but the absence of a visionary leader is the crux of the problem.

[Yogi_G]

But, first of all, what is Indian nationalism and where in India does it thrive. How can nationalism be made mandatory in governance, despite all that hinders it today.

S

Excellent point Samuel and I agree wholeheartedly. The discussion of "India as core" is good, but becomes weak and pointless if th people of the core do not see themselves as part of the core "India" but end up seeing themselves as "Hindus", "Muslims" "Yadavs", Schecduled castes", "poor", "Mumbaikars" and not "Biharis", Seeing such splits and engineering such splits is what Pakistan is all about.

Quite apart from that people on BRF have spent thousands of hours debating how the US is bad or Evanjihdis are bad, but until brihaspati started this thread nobody has been able to pin down the need for recognizing Indian nationalism as core. But while Brihaspati is taking the core for granted and looking outside, I would agree with you that a reiteration and consolidation of what is core is essential.

I see children's education as well as re education of the intellectual classes and polity as essential parts of reiterating Indian nationalism.

Is Indian nationalism impeded to a great extent by the absence of common language (plz dont bring up English), a common "Bollywood" and a staple food item like chappathi/Rice (Ok, kidding about rice/chappati, its a non-issue in India, but here in Massa land I miss South Indian food cause most of the restaurants in my city serve only "generic North Indian food onlee" )

[Abhi_G]

A vast majority of people in India see through the immediate cultural moorings in which they are brought up. Nothing wrong in that per se but how to make people see beyond their own noses? In my opinion, a healthy balance between pride for ones own region/language and the need to reach out further to the people speaking a different language but sharing a cultural commonality that has come down from a hoary past is the single most important task for nation building. The gradual distancing between the various regions have occurred due to a severe corrosion of the nationalist discourse in the post 1947 period. Leftist apologists are solely responsible for eroding sense of the "cultural" bonding that the word "Hindu" invokes.

A small anecdote on this account: a friend who is a project manager in s/w company is having troubles with their branch located in another part of the country. He said casually that people from that part of the country are not enough disciplined. He completely forgot the fact that in his engineering days, he hardly attended classes and did not care for any discipline? Age, experience and possibly working under gora sahibs taught him the need for discipline. But instead of seeing the lack of that as the primary problem in the current case (that might affect people from his region as well), he immediately blamed that lack of accountability was a feature of people from the other part of the country. Is this reflective of a serious fragmentation in our nationalist psyche or just a chai-biskoot casual talk that should not be taken seriously? If the former is true, then no wonder when blasts rock Guwahati, we think "oh it is far away", when bombs explode in Mumbai, we say "oh we were not there and are safe".

[samuel]

It is impossible for me to keep up with Brihaspati's pace and length, but that is not because they are anything less than exciting to read. I just can't go that fast. But, I'll start here with these (though I have questions to ask of the rest 1-3, as well):

(4) However, in facing up to the peripheral hostility, we ironically strengthen our core and move towards "completing" it. The best devil is the foreign "devil" against whom it is so much easier to unite and learn to overcome differences.

Alignment in the presence of external forces is actually not surprising, it is quite common at least in nature.
But, that is not the issue.
What is, if I can give an example is:
Pakistan pisses us off, we pick a fight, Pakistan squeaks, we are back to bhaichara. The British suppress us, we align, they are gone, we start random walking. The two issues here are: a) our actions are reactions, and b) they emerge only to show others their short-term karma.

I had a dear jewish friend who grew up as a Hindu in a commune tell me "to never let my guard down" in front of a chick I wished to screw. He claimed that was a Hindu principle. Which left me at a loss, not just because, you know, of the well-known old fashioned Devi routine. We are not capable of getting our shackles up, it takes a phuking earthquake to get us to shift weight to the other bum in India, normally, so what to talk of guard up or down.

We must have our guard up and be proactive. We must be managing our neighborhood at all times. The energy, stamina, paranoia or will to do that comes when, i'd like to say if and only if, a non-negotiable love affair with Indian nationalism does not depend on external forces for its rise. Otherwise, it is bound to fall when the "threat" disappears (in the short-term), which we know is not our nhood. Or, some elements try to provide the next buzz to keep the people united, which is just what Pakistan does.

Maybe you mean that we must use this foreign devil to kickstart the core. In which case, may be it is worth a shot, and may be it is the only shot given the circumstances. But I am not sure it is how we will sustain. How would we do that?

S

[ldev]

I have not read all of the long posts which I am sure contain some eminently sensible suggestions but FWIW, in brief my take on the situation:

As a country becomes more powerful (militarily and economically) it needs more space to conduct its defensive operations. These operations start being conducted at its geographical borders , then away from its borders, first in the surrounding region and then farther and farther away from its borders. This continues until when a country becomes a superpower like the US or the former USSR when its defensive operations are conducted around the world.

India has recognized this and its efforts to try and control its immediate neighbourhood. Pakistan is a brittle border because of:

1. The nuke angle.

2. Historical support from the US.

3. Current support from China.

Just as in the 1971 Bangladesh campaign the Indian Army bypassed Pakistani troop concentrations and dashed for Dacca to leave follow on troops to mop these up, similarly it will make sense for India to bypass Pakistan and go around it for now. Hence the discussion on the other thread about Indian troops for Afghanistan. Maginot lines have never held off any attacker. Defensive operations in this context is not limited to military operations but includes economic and diplomatic efforts culminating in a sphere of influence

For this however to be successful in the long term, the country itself needs to be internally cohesive. There is no point in crying about the fact that the forefathers did not prevent Ghazni being invaded umpteen times. That has happened and is a given and there are 150 million Muslims in India. There are also a lesser number of Christians, Sikhs, Jains, Jews, Parsees etc. etc. Nationalism therefore cannot be tied to any particular religion. It has to have an Indian as opposed to a religious identity.

I also think that a common language is very important in forging a common bond in building nationhood. Try watching a movie which has the capacity to bring tears to your eyes in a language you understand and then watch the same movie with subtitles. Listen to political leaders and their speeches in a language you understand then via translation.

Plus, the country needs a thorough cleanup on the NJBRIE front as Rahul Mehta used to say.

IMO however the good thing is that all these different efforts can be done concurrently and not necessarily sequentially.

[samuel]

If we had to write a modern textbook on Indian nationalism that we could use as the single reference to reach out to every corner of India, in what language would it be written and what would it contain?

I realize there is way too much behind this superficially simple question, for example there are too many illiterate people still, but such simple acts are useful, I hope we can all agree.

[brihaspati]

I will briefly reply now : (have to go to bed! - its almost morning)

John Snow wrote : There is nationalistic spirit among people but the absence of a visionary leader is the crux of the problem.

No, I don't think this is a serious problem. We will find a leader when we need her/him. After all the scriptures promise us "dharma-samsthapanarthayo..."

Samuel wrote : Maybe you mean that we must use this foreign devil to kickstart the core. In which case, may be it is worth a shot, and may be it is the only shot given the circumstances. But I am not sure it is how we will sustain. How would we do that?
Abhi_G wrote how to make people see beyond their own noses? In my opinion, a healthy balance between pride for ones own region/language and the need to reach out further to the people speaking a different language but sharing a cultural commonality that has come down from a hoary past is the single most important task for nation building. The gradual distancing between the various regions have occurred due to a severe corrosion of the nationalist discourse in the post 1947 period. Leftist apologists are solely responsible for eroding sense of the "cultural" bonding that the word "Hindu" invokes.

We should use every opportunity to kickstart the process. Our commons have really forgotten to "feel", they protect themselves behind the hard shell of indifference because they no longer trust the "specials" - and their hearts are closed against words coming from those they identify as belonging in the same class as those whom they cannot trust. What we are saying here can only be convincing if we ourselves do not feel conscious of differences from those we are trying to convince or awaken. Complete honesty of purpose and belief shows through.
I think it is important to "convert" the young and the "toiling class" (not all toilers are under Leftist influence).

When I was in student politics, I used to share the life of the people I was sent to interact with - I have spent nights in slums, in jhopris among tribals, in huts of mountain dwellers, and never did I feel different from them. This was not liked by my "party" bosses however, but I did not care. This is how I arrived at the greatest respect and regard I have for the toilers of my land, every old and struggling woman I see - I see my mother. And never was my love for these people, my people, returned without reciprocation. Personal tragedies and my unbending attitude to certain aspects of "party politics" forced me to escape on the point of being "removed from the grassroots" and sent to the "glitter of representations in houses". It will be the sincerity of purpose of saying what you really honestly believe, that touches hearts. We do need to melt the solid hearts of the common Indian - frozen solid from centuries of abuse and distrust. This is not emotional talk - but my real life experience.

It is that touch of kindness for the other, a fellow Indian, trying to understand his/her viewpoint, being tolerant enough patient enough to find out why he or she was behaving in the way he/she was behaving instead of sterotyping based on appearance/region/language/social status/ that is the beginning of communication between disparate groups in our society.

to be continued....

[BSR Murthy]

When I was in student politics, I used to share the life of the people I was sent to interact with - I have spent nights in slums, in jhopris among tribals, in huts of mountain dwellers, and never did I feel different from them. This was not liked by my "party" bosses however, but I did not care. This is how I arrived at the greatest respect and regard I have for the toilers of my land, every old and struggling woman I see - I see my mother. And never was my love for these people, my people, returned without reciprocation. Personal tragedies and my unbending attitude to certain aspects of "party politics" forced me to escape on the point of being "removed from the grassroots" and sent to the "glitter of representations in houses". It will be the sincerity of purpose of saying what you really honestly believe, that touches hearts. We do need to melt the solid hearts of the common Indian - frozen solid from centuries of abuse and distrust. This is not emotional talk - but my real life experience.

It is that touch of kindness for the other, a fellow Indian, trying to understand his/her viewpoint, being tolerant enough patient enough to find out why he or she was behaving in the way he/she was behaving instead of sterotyping based on appearance/region/language/social status/ that is the beginning of communication between disparate groups in our society.

Very well put. I feel that the attitude of many Indians (especially those that are educated) towards fellow Indians could use some adjustment. The kiss up and kick down mentality is a problem. We must learn to respect fellow countrymen irrespective of their education and social status. It is very easy to take us apart when we view our own with derision. This lack of respect to fellow citizen in a way allowed others to come and colonize us and rule us. Goa is one such example. As Benito Juarez of Mexico famously said "Entre los individuos como entre las naciones, el respeto al derecho ajeno es la paz" [“Among individuals, as among nations, peace is the respect of others' rights"].

[Dilbu]

There is nationalistic spirit among people but the absence of a visionary leader is the crux of the problem.

Can BR do something to address this problem? I know we have been discussing this for quite some time but I would like to do something about it. What can be done?

[enqyoob]

Brihaspati for Dictator!!!

[brihaspati]

Brihaspati for Dictator!!!

Narayananji, I think you are way ahead in experience for that particular post as a forum moderator, deleting "individuals" and "sending them to vanavas" if you feel they do not conform.

I am against looking up to a single leader whom we expect to do everything for us. This is a long cultural tradition and typical of long repressed societies who concentrate all their hopes on a "super" human being turning up as the "Messiah". This prevents us from taking individual initiatives where we can. The collective effort of many such individual initiatives, following a common program, behaves like an effective single leadership, and also reduces the chances of putting all our eggs in one basket.

[brihaspati]

ldev wrote
I also think that a common language is very important in forging a common bond in building nationhood. Try watching a movie which has the capacity to bring tears to your eyes in a language you understand and then watch the same movie with subtitles. Listen to political leaders and their speeches in a language you understand then via translation.

Yogi_G has also brought the question of language up, although he doesn't want English.
I will start off this debate with the observation that BR itself would not be able to function if all of us here did not know English.
I also do not like the idea of English, but having faced the attitudes towards non-local languages and dialects, I do not think there is any alternative to making English one of the compulsory languages in addition to the regional ones.
The advantages of using English are obvious :
(1) it is a "third-party" language - and therefore does not attract the hatred/fear/distrust of other Indian regional languages.
(2) it is tempting for many parents as a route to "engineer/doctor" and a possible "settling abroad" and therefore invites less resistance
(3) it gives access to world information flow, and serves as a bypassing mechanism to any blocking and suppression of the type practised by the Thaparite School of Indian history.
(4) English is primarily an old Saxonic/Germanic dialect with lots and lots of loanwords from a host of languages including Indic - and should better be seen as a branch of the Indo-European languages and therfore sharing common roots with old Indic languages. English was not the language of England - it formed out of invasions - and should not be seen as a proprietary language of one particular country.
(5) What 1.2 billion Indians will speak as English will be what English will come to be defined by - maybe mocked as Hinglish/Indlish - but the advantages of dominating a language that has become the most pervasive of world's business/educational/IT languages should not be beyond comprehension.

[brihaspati]

Vaiko of MDMK has expressed confidence in PVK's ability to survive. Sri Lankan government has asked LTTE to surrender. This is an important and fast developing dynamic in our core-periphery relationship. Our lack of consistent and precise policy/doctrine for dealing with such cases, where elements of the core overlap with peripheral elements in conflict with other peripheral elements - creates tactical paralysis. Using this tactical paralysis of the core, the game played out will be the so-called "Tamil nationalism" (one of those sub-nations existing within the whole "nation" and with very confused members who are not sure which of those two nations supercedes the other) doing everything it can to put pressure on the core to preserve LTTE. Also PVK's current weakness or reverses can make him amenable to offers from "outside" to help him prolong his agenda if he does something in return - help to carry out a major "outrage" in the south.

An idea of fundamental loyalty to the core, would have asked the question - is PVK fighting with and for an Indian identity? Are they being persecuted for being seen as having cultural affiliations to the core - like Hindus in Sind/Baloch/BD? Then India should intervene on their behalf. If not, if PVK is fighting for a merely ethnic/and cultural "sub-identity" - (Jaffna Tamils are mostly Hindus - and that has more people in it in the core than Tamils only) separate from the core - the core has no commitments to intervening on behalf of it.