Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

[V_Raman]

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2438393/ru ... g-currency
Rupee named world’s best-performing currency
Closes at an impressive Rs287.74 against greenback, gaining Rs1.01
.......
Gautam

I got to give it to these Bakis. They cling to every small straw of positive news and create bragging moments.

They are very American in that regard and a trait worth learning from for us Indians. Talking positive is infectious.

[Manish_P]

In that case here is more positive news.

Bakistan is showing India how to promote Privatisation.

Plan for G2G oil deal with Russia shelved

The government has decided to shelve plans for a long-term oil import deal with Russia under a government-to-government (G2G) arrangement and has allowed refineries to strike direct commercial agreements with companies of the European nation.

Earlier, Pakistan and Russia agreed to set up a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) with the objective of crude oil imports as part of a G2G agreement. However, the establishment of SPV, whose task was to import oil and then ship it to local refineries for processing, suffered delays.

Following the recent visit of a Pakistani delegation to Moscow, it was decided to put the plan of setting up the SPV on the back burner.

[Neela]

Climate financing is unfair. It has a large loan component...unfair to Pakis

According to a 2021 report by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, only 9.5pc of GCF financing is based on grants, while 69.8pc is based on loans, and 18pc on equity financing. The report also notes that the majority of GCF private-sector finance takes the form of loans.

Pakis cleverly tried to milk the floods and other climate disasters for grants and realizing not all of it is free money.

[ricky_v]

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curate ... d2118e.pdf

Pakistan is one of the most important participants in China’s Belt and
Road Initiative. It faced principal and interest payments to Chinese
creditors worth 10.2 bn USD between 2013 and 2021.
• In 2013, the State Bank of Pakistan made its first drawdown from the
swap line. A Financial Times article described the episode: “In May
[2013], with Pakistan’s rupee looking particularly weak, its balance of
payments parlous and election jitters increasing, Yaseen Anwar, the
head of State Bank of Pakistan, quietly took advantage of a littleknown clause in the bank’s central currency swap agreement with the
People’s Bank of China and borrowed almost $600m. By drawing
down on part of a $1.5bn line of credit, the government was able to
report that far from showing a big deficit, Pakistan’s balance of
payments were positive at the end of the month. By the end of June
[2013] the rupee was under less pressure and by early September
[2013] the new government of Nawaz Sharif had signed an agreement
with the International Monetary Fund that further stabilized the ailing
currency” (Sender 2013).
• Since 2013, the SBP has repeatedly rolled over and increased its swap
debt to the PBOC (4.7 bn USD as of 2021), leading the IMF to
express concern about Pakistan’s strong reliance on short-term swap
debt and its inadequate net reserve position.
• Between 2013 and 2021, Pakistan also received 23 bn USD in
additional liquidity support (incl. rollovers) from China’s State
Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China Development
Bank, Bank of China, and ICBC.

[Manish_P]

Economic Super Power Pakistan has advice for the IMF - 'Change your Modus Operandi'

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2442540/im ... s-operandi

The IMF, being the lender of last resort for countries in balance of payments crisis or in danger of default, almost always ties its bailouts to excessive austerity measures. Its loans are tied – in the IMF jargon – to the “structural adjustment programme”. These center on raising taxes and/ or spurning tax rate reductions, balancing the budget at all costs, devaluing the currency and increasing interest rates.

Such anti-growth policies, delivered in line with the IMF diktat, have been shown in the majority of cases to have actually increased countries’ dependence on the IMF over time. Just think of what has happened in Argentina, Pakistan, Ecuador, Egypt or Ghana.

The tragedy is that for the past 50 years, the IMF has been peddling wrongheaded advice across the globe to countries seduced by “free” IMF funds and thus compelled to follow economically destructive fiscal and monetary policies, creating a network of loan addicts. # pious bakis have been seduced by the goras

The IMF is more like Hotel California: you can check-in, but you never check-out. Unless and until the IMF alongside its partner the World Bank changes the modus operandi, over time their influence will diminish on the global stage.

[Neela]

https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analys ... mic-future

The Gulf lifeline
Amid a critical juncture, Pakistan sought refuge in its enduring alliances with Gulf nations, most notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who came forward to extend their support in stabilising the nation's faltering economy. Prime Minister Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir engaged in high-level dialogues with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and UAE president Mohammad bin Zayed, seeking vital financial aid. Consequently, Saudi Arabia pledged a substantial $2 billion, while the UAE committed an additional $1 billion, contingent upon the successful revival of Pakistan's IMF programme. (11) These pledges materialised when Pakistan inked the IMF deal in July, marking a pivotal moment in rescuing the nation's economy from the precipice of collapse.

[partha]

Where is the $100 billion that Hafiz Munir promised he would get from Gulf?

[Manish_P]

Where is the $100 billion that Hafiz Munir promised he would get from Gulf?

Sir, the hukumrans have started giving the excuse of the yehudis extending the war in filistine, on the request of the cunning baniyas, to stop pious bakistan from getting the money from the Arabs who will now divert it to the gazans rehabilitation

[drnayar]

India's Goals

- 3rd largest economy by 2028
- India's own space station by 2035
- Indians on moon by 2040
- Developed nation by 2047

Pakistan's Goals

- Beat India in a cricket match.

https://twitter.com/Zaira_Nizaam/status ... 4189263032

[A_Gupta]

https://www.nation.com.pk/14-Nov-2023/q ... -dollar-2b
“ Qatar shows interest in purchase of PIA for over $2b”

The Pak govt owns 86% of PIA, 14% is traded on the stock exchange, so one can estimate its value. I don’t think PIA has a net value of one-third of that supposed Qatari number.

[Manish_P]

https://www.nation.com.pk/14-Nov-2023/q ... -dollar-2b
“ Qatar shows interest in purchase of PIA for over $2b”

The Pak govt owns 86% of PIA, 14% is traded on the stock exchange, so one can estimate its value. I don’t think PIA has a net value of one-third of that supposed Qatari number.

A_Gupta ji, if the Sheikhs do buy PIA then they will probably pay less than a fifth of it's value.

[A_Gupta]

Qatar might go along with some fake news for Paki H&D.

[Pratyush]

Wait for the denial from Quatar.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ the issue of Qatar buying a stake in PIA or buying all of PIA has come up many times in the past.

But, for example, in July, it was announced that Saudi oil giant Aramco would invest $10 billion in a new oil refinery at Gwadar, with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day. It turns out that India Oil Corp's new Paradip refinery, which has a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day, cost $5.2 billion. So either Saudis are idiots or else the $10 billion figure is mentioned for Pakistani H&D - that too, assuming that the project ever gets started. I doubt Saudi Arabia has any China-like interest in getting client states ensnared in debt traps, and so they will check economic viability of any such project.

(In fact the Pakistani rep told the Saudis, "I have not come here for just a $2 billion investment." (i.e., don't insult my begging bowl). The Saudis said, yeah, yeah, we'll invest $25 billion overall.

Call it H&D economics.

[Vayutuvan]

Aramco full form is Arab American Oil Company. So now it is “Arab giant”?! Really?!

[Dilbu]

Aramco full form is Arab American Oil Company. So now it is “Arab giant”?! Really?!

It is 90% owned by Government of Saudi Arabia.

[VishnuS]

https://www.nation.com.pk/14-Nov-2023/q ... -dollar-2b
“ Qatar shows interest in purchase of PIA for over $2b”

The Pak govt owns 86% of PIA, 14% is traded on the stock exchange, so one can estimate its value. I don’t think PIA has a net value of one-third of that supposed Qatari number.

This is Qatarti way of funding Pakistan and why do you think they're doing that!?

They're one sick ********, if they want to destroy you, then they'll fund your enemy.

If what you said is true, then the negotiations are not happening about PIA sale, but how Pak could hurt India and its reputation....

[VishnuS]

^^^ the issue of Qatar buying a stake in PIA or buying all of PIA has come up many times in the past.

But, for example, in July, it was announced that Saudi oil giant Aramco would invest $10 billion in a new oil refinery at Gwadar, with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day. It turns out that India Oil Corp's new Paradip refinery, which has a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day, cost $5.2 billion. So either Saudis are idiots or else the $10 billion figure is mentioned for Pakistani H&D - that too, assuming that the project ever gets started. I doubt Saudi Arabia has any China-like interest in getting client states ensnared in debt traps, and so they will check economic viability of any such project.

(In fact the Pakistani rep told the Saudis, "I have not come here for just a $2 billion investment." (i.e., don't insult my begging bowl). The Saudis said, yeah, yeah, we'll invest $25 billion overall.

Call it H&D economics.

with the NEOM project going on, KSA doesn't have hany funds left to donate...

They also know that within a decade, a viable replacement for crude oil is going to be found and it's downhill from that day, so.... I doubt they'll spend money of Pakistan or wherever the returns will be low.

[partha]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1789409/imf-r ... c-creation

IMF raises questions on SIFC creation

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2446496/ga ... investment

Gaza war to delay $70b investment

Loss to Pakistan's economy due to yahudi saazish: $70 billion

All in all this madrassa chap Hafiz Munir is turning out to be a big idiot. Launched SIFC and made tall promises of bringing $100 billion, $25 billion, $70 billion on various occasions with 0 dollars flowing in so far. He is making Bajwa look intelligent. Bajwa didn't promise any numbers. Just said Pakistan's focus will be "geoeconomics" at the beginning and then focused the rest of his term on extension and political engineering.

[Aditya_V]

Why dont the Fortress of Islam- i.e Pakistan, Qatar and Turkey and their allies within India(BIF), take Panga with USA. Qatar can ban all Gas exports to Nato countries, and through all their might against US-Nato Miltary Assets and CBG's in the region.

[hgupta]

Then their US protectors who by virtue of having a base in Qatar will simply do a Panama operation on Qatar's rulers and arrest them for being terrorism sponsors.

[Manish_P]

IMF is stiffling paki 'creativity'

Pakistan set to receive $700m from IMF after bailout review

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday announced a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on the completion of the first review of the $3 billion bailout package after Islamabad assured it of refraining from intervening in the currency market and continuing on the path of fiscal consolidation.

In a statement issued after the end of the IMF visit to Pakistan, the global lender also sought greater transparency in management of the assets under the Sovereign Wealth Fund and in the operations of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). # so no CPEC version 2.0 hain

Pakistan would also be required to make public the asset declarations of the cabinet members and a task force would conduct a comprehensive review of the country’s anti-corruption framework. # jernails are safe for now, thanks to Ukraine

The talks mostly remained smooth during two-week long engagements. The IMF did not accept the Ministry of Finance’s creative budget accounting, which would now result in revision in the reported budget figures. # western world is equally indifferent to the fate of falistine, madarssa maths and sialkoti statistics

[Manish_P]

If only Ishaq Dar could talk tough with them...

MSCI trims Pakistan’s weight

Contrary to expectations , Pakistan’s weightage in the global stock market index has been slashed in the semi-annual review conducted by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), which might result in the withdrawal of some foreign investment from the Pakistan stock market.

The reduction in weight was not seen due to anything wrong with the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), but the available information suggests “the weight of a few other countries, including Vietnam, Romania, and Sri Lanka, have increased in a range of 0.17% to 1.81%.” # Lahori logic - pakistan is not regressing, the rest of the world is progressing

To highlight, Pakistan was reclassified to MSCI Frontier Market from Emerging Market in November 2021 as it did not meet the standards for Size and Liquidity. # note use of enchandee word 'reclassifed' instead of 'demoted'

[A_Gupta]

https://thefridaytimes.com/16-Nov-2023/ ... me-in-2022

> Pakistan lost around 26 billion hours of potential labour hours due to heat exposure in 2022, causing around $16 billion in lost income, or around 4.4% of its gross domestic product, according to The Lancet Countdown, a major annual assessment carried out by leading researchers and institutions.

Labor force in Pakistan is around 80 million people. So each worker lost 325 hours, supposedly, or 8 weeks of 40-hour work. Imagine, the entire country not working for two months. (Do they work at all?). And each hour of Pakistani labor is worth about USD 0.64? Methinks madrassa math has infected the UK too.

[partha]

IMF is stiffling paki 'creativity'

Pakistan set to receive $700m from IMF after bailout review

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday announced a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on the completion of the first review of the $3 billion bailout package after Islamabad assured it of refraining from intervening in the currency market and continuing on the path of fiscal consolidation.

In a statement issued after the end of the IMF visit to Pakistan, the global lender also sought greater transparency in management of the assets under the Sovereign Wealth Fund and in the operations of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). # so no CPEC version 2.0 hain

Pakistan would also be required to make public the asset declarations of the cabinet members and a task force would conduct a comprehensive review of the country’s anti-corruption framework. # jernails are safe for now, thanks to Ukraine

The talks mostly remained smooth during two-week long engagements. The IMF did not accept the Ministry of Finance’s creative budget accounting, which would now result in revision in the reported budget figures. # western world is equally indifferent to the fate of falistine, madarssa maths and sialkoti statistics

After a fake "bailout review".

First IMF raises objections about some Pakistani policies making it seem like Pakistan may not get the next tranche of funds and then there will be some talks between Pakistan and Ukraine without details getting disclosed and then suddenly IMF releases funds without Pakistan addressing any of the concerns raised before. Ukraine's defence minister talked to Pakistani defence minister on Nov 6th after which IMF released funds.

https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/statu ... 5810348464

Spoke today with #Pakistan’s Minister for Defence & Defence Production Lieutenant General (Retd) Anwar Ali Hyder. I’m grateful for Pakistan’s contribution to Ukraine’s capabilities. It was a pleasure to discuss areas of mutual interest as we maintain our bilateral relationship.

As long as Pakistan keeps supplying arms to Ukraine, it will keep getting IMF funds whatever be its economic policies which in a way is not bad. Actual reforms will never happen this way.

[Manish_P]

...

As long as Pakistan keeps supplying arms to Ukraine, it will keep getting IMF funds whatever be its economic policies which in a way is not bad. Actual reforms will never happen this way.

Partha ji, while i agree on the 'Actual reforms will never happen this way' part i am not too enthused about it.

Simply because the US will always find (create) wars to feed it's MIC.. that way the Paki jernails will always be in business. And to keep the supply lines going smoothly the IMF/WB will keep giving them naan crumbs to be thrown to the awaam.

[Manish_P]

When hard reality meets arrogant expectations based on 'creative' calculations done using madarssa maths, sialkoti statistics and lahori logic...

Yawn - Inflows stay dismal on poor credit rating

Pakistan received less than $ 3.85 billion in foreign loans, almost one-fifth of the annual budget estimate, amid limited borrowing avenues in the wake of poor credit rating and adverse conditions in the global financial markets.

In its monthly report on Foreign Economic Assistance (FEA), the Economic Affairs Division (EAD) on Friday said the country received just $ 3.847 bn in July-October FY24 against its annual target of $ 17.6 bn.

This meant foreign inflows were down by almost 10pc when compared to $ 4.26 bn in the same period last year which was a tough period given the challenging relationship with the International Monetary Fund.

[Neela]

...

As long as Pakistan keeps supplying arms to Ukraine, it will keep getting IMF funds whatever be its economic policies which in a way is not bad. Actual reforms will never happen this way.

Partha ji, while i agree on the 'Actual reforms will never happen this way' part i am not too enthused about it.

Simply because the US will always find (create) wars to feed it's MIC.. that way the Paki jernails will always be in business. And to keep the supply lines going smoothly the IMF/WB will keep giving them naan crumbs to be thrown to the awaam.

I have come to enjoy the slower, finer things in life. its a slow painful death Manishji. There is no way the small change will catch up with the debt and interest payments. So credit worthiness starts to decline bit by bit. If you observe, like a absolute wretch, Pakis will look for the next short term fix. There will be moments of relief like this but most of the time
the agony, the pain of not being able to afford anything else, will be playing in their minds all the time. It is inevitable. From water, gas, electricity, food - everything will decline to near neanderthal levels. A slow decline, deeper and deeper into hell making their land the perfect fortress of Slam.
Lets enjoy that . After seeing videos of exPaki cricketers, who, we'd think, are more aware of the world , go on about Slam and their attempts at conversion , I thought to myself that there is no way these guys are going to have any kind of progress - EVER!
They are doomed. We are just seeing the doom play out .

[Manish_P]

... its a slow painful death Manishji. There is no way the small change will catch up with the debt and interest payments. So credit worthiness starts to decline bit by bit. If you observe, like a absolute wretch, Pakis will look for the next short term fix. There will be moments of relief like this but most of the time the agony, the pain of not being able to afford anything else, will be playing in their minds all the time. It is inevitable. From water, gas, electricity, food - everything will decline to near neanderthal levels. A living slow decline, deeper and deeper into hell making their land the perfect fortress of Slam.

Oh i agree Neela ji.. and would have been all for it. The slow, deliberate, pressurized cooking over decades.

Except for one critical thing - Demographics.

Not in Pakistan. But in India.

[Neela]

... its a slow painful death Manishji. There is no way the small change will catch up with the debt and interest payments. So credit worthiness starts to decline bit by bit. If you observe, like a absolute wretch, Pakis will look for the next short term fix. There will be moments of relief like this but most of the time the agony, the pain of not being able to afford anything else, will be playing in their minds all the time. It is inevitable. From water, gas, electricity, food - everything will decline to near neanderthal levels. A living slow decline, deeper and deeper into hell making their land the perfect fortress of Slam.

Oh i agree Neela ji.. and would have been all for it. The slow, deliberate, pressurized cooking over decades.

Except for one critical thing - Demographics.

Not in Pakistan. But in India.

Dont want to attract the wrath of admins.
But in my view, I do see a rite of passage event . Let me just say, pre-Independence events will be replayed, calls of secession and Islamic territories, HR violations and a great culling. I'll leave it at that. Its nothing new though. You dont expect dogs to bray - you expect them to bark like they always do.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1790247/gas-p ... on-to-42pc

ISLAMABAD: A massive increase in gas prices drove the annual short-term inflation to above 40 per cent for the first time in over four months, official data showed on Friday.


The inflation reading stood at 41.9pc for the week ending Nov 16, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said, mainly because of over 1,100pc increase in gas charges compared to a year ago.

Other items whose prices increased the most included cigarettes (94.5pc), wheat flour (86.4pc), chilli powder (81.7pc), broken basmati rice (76.7pc), garlic (63.6pc), IRRI 6/9 rice (61.9pc), tea (54.6pc), gur (51pc), and sugar (50pc).

In contrast, the prices of onions dropped 36.2pc year-on-year, followed by tomatoes (-14pc), mustard oil (-3.95pc), vegetable ghee (-2pc) and pulse gram (-0.5pc).

The short-term inflation, measured by a basket of goods and services called the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), also saw a massive increase compared to the previous week, rocketing to 10pc in the Nov 11-16 week from just 0.73pc a week ago.

The SPI, which currently stands at 309, is computed weekly to assess the prices of essential commodities and services at shorter intervals. The index comprises 51 items collected from 50 markets in 17 cities.

The PBS data showed that the prices of 25 items increased, those of 13 items decreased and those of 13 items remained almost unchanged compa­red to the previous week.

The items whose prices saw the highest increase week-on-week included gas (480pc), tea packet (8.9pc), pulse masoor (5.3pc), chi­cken (4pc), garlic (3pc), salt powdered (2.9pc), wheat flour (2.6pc), tea prepared (2.07pc), LPG (2.03pc), and potatoes (2pc).

On the other hand, the items with the highest pri­ce decreases included ele­ctricity charges (-16pc), to­­­matoes (-11.2pc), sugar (-4.2pc), diesel (-2.2pc), on­ions (-1.49pc), vegetable ghee (-1.39pc), petrol (-0.73pc), cooking oil (-0.65pc).

[sanman]

Wow, are there any parts of India where people do this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5f2D876vnk

[Manish_P]

Wow, are there any parts of India where people do this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5f2D876vnk

Well all across India you will see children, typically aged below 5-6 years, playing with gas-filled baloons

The adults however get their cooking gas in metal cylinders. And a good percentage of people in metro cities get piped gas at home.

[Manish_P]

India may be the pharmacy of the world but it is only in bakistan that the pharma companies can make so much money...

Yawn - Medicines in Karachi being sold at five-time higher prices, Drap reveals

A crackdown by the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (Drap) in Karachi has revealed that pharmacies and medical stores are selling medicines at five-fold higher prices than the maximum retail price (MRP) approved by the authority.

According to Drap rules, pharmaceutical companies can sell medicines at any price lower than the MRP, but they cannot exceed the MRP. For increasing prices, pharmaceutical companies have to file cases with Drap pleading that medicines’ production costs have gone up and it is not viable for them to sell medicines within the existing MRP.

“The Heparin Injection’s [used for decreasing clotting of blood] MRP is Rs 800 but it was being sold for Rs 3,500. “A pack of Tegral tablets [recommended for epilepsy] should be sold for MRP 260, but it was being sold for Rs 1,300 and at some places for Rs 1,400. A pack of Zenax [used for treating anxiety and panic disorders] has a MRP of Rs 278, but was being sold for Rs 1,400. Ultravist Injection [used for clearly showing the organs such as kidney, bladder, heart, vessels or spinal cord on X-rays] has MRP of Rs 3,418, but was being sold for Rs 6,500,“ he said.

The official said a consignment of banned syringes was also confiscated during the crackdown in Balochistan.

[Deans]

I have come to enjoy the slower, finer things in life. its a slow painful death Manishji. There is no way the small change will catch up with the debt and interest payments. So credit worthiness starts to decline bit by bit. If you observe, like a absolute wretch, Pakis will look for the next short term fix. There will be moments of relief like this but most of the time
the agony, the pain of not being able to afford anything else, will be playing in their minds all the time. It is inevitable. From water, gas, electricity, food - everything will decline to near neanderthal levels. A slow decline, deeper and deeper into hell making their land the perfect fortress of Slam.
Lets enjoy that . After seeing videos of exPaki cricketers, who, we'd think, are more aware of the world , go on about Slam and their attempts at conversion , I thought to myself that there is no way these guys are going to have any kind of progress - EVER!
They are doomed. We are just seeing the doom play out .

Great post Sir. A slow death will also ensure they don't do something stupid with their army. On the contrary it will erode the status of the army in the eyes of the public. The videos of current Pak cricketers are about shopping in India, how Biryani in India is better and how they wish they could play in the IPL.

[A_Gupta]

Yawn:

For instance, remittances dropped by 10.3 per cent year-on-year during the five months from July to November, resulting in a $1.3 billion loss compared to the year-ago period. This decline followed a $4bn decrease in remittances in the last fiscal year.

Export figures are also not encouraging, with proceeds falling 4.4pc to $2.57bn in November and rising by a meagre 2pc during July-November.

These dwindling inflows are set against the backdrop of import expenditures that are twice as high as exports during the five-month period, further straining the rupee’s position amid the rising demand and poor inflows of dollars.

“The PKR is facing many challenges. This is why traders are factoring in a 5-10pc depreciation next year as Pakistan suffers from near-zero growth, low productivity, and higher repayments with fewer avenues for raising foreign exchange,” said Faisal Mamsa, CEO of Tresmark.

[Neela]

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2449985/1

The Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), grappling with financial turmoil for months, has left its 7,000-strong workforce without salaries for November

In October, the financially-strained airline was compelled to cancel numerous domestic and international flights due to limited fuel supply from Pakistan State Oil (PSO), inconveniencing thousands of passengers.

State-owned PIA, long criticized for inefficiency, faces dwindling funds amidst the government’s battle with a balance of payments crisis arising from immense debt repayments. Recent reports revealed the PIA's liabilities to be Rs743 billion (approximately $2.5 billion), surpassing its total assets by five time

Debt = 5x assets. Yikes . And why would fuel companies deliver if PIA is such a white elephant. Unless they have a pay-first clause that is. This will lead to many many cancellations.
And those who've booked tickets and paid would need to forego. And flight cancellations will lead to media reports which in turn will feed into reduced bookings. Why would employees turn up when salaries arent paid? As lenders now fight for repayments, peripheral services etc will all be hit. A rapid decline from here on.

Restructuring and firing is the only choice. But Pakis are known for cooking the books. With such dire economic forecast, occupancy will be hit. This means any potential buyer, like Qatar, must put in money and then wait for several years for recovery.


This means for the Paki Aviation industry, they are left with only two main assets - route rights and airport infra.
They're gonna sell their country out.

[disha]

Any of the ME (Qatar/QA, Etihad/UAE-Abu Dhabi, Emirates/UAE-Dubai) will be interested in the routes. Since that will provide them a route into CAR and Tibet.

However all of them will wait for PIA to collapse so that they can move in as vultures for the routes, for the infrastructure and the planes itself. Between them they can easily raise 2-3 billion dollars to completely buy off PIA.

Porkis are angling for that and the ME airlines are playing for time. Fact is, Bakistan is already in 7th century AD., with some modern tools.

[Deans]

Any of the ME (Qatar/QA, Etihad/UAE-Abu Dhabi, Emirates/UAE-Dubai) will be interested in the routes. Since that will provide them a route into CAR and Tibet.

However all of them will wait for PIA to collapse so that they can move in as vultures for the routes, for the infrastructure and the planes itself. Between them they can easily raise 2-3 billion dollars to completely buy off PIA.

Porkis are angling for that and the ME airlines are playing for time. Fact is, Bakistan is already in 7th century AD., with some modern tools.

Pak landing rights have close to zero use. You can fly non stop to Central Asia or South East Asia from the Middle East. PIA has already surrendered
some of their slots in western countries as they could not pay up.

[disha]

I think there are several nuances. Let's say there is interest from CAR or even Cashmere (once POK is integrated into India) to fly to say another CAR (Central African Republic), you see they will want the Kashmiri Saffron and in return we will want to strike some deals on lumber for the growing Indian middle class. (This is stressful for baki lurkers, so yes the post belongs in the Bakistani economic stress watch).

Anyway, the key here is the overland flight routes. Not the infrastructure itself, that is for emergency or a refueling stop or drop off some passengers at Lawhore on the return flight. They do not matter.

Point is that the overland flight routes that provide shortest distance is the key.

For example, US airlines do not fly over Ukraine/Russia, and Air India has been able to negotiate a flight over CAR (Kirgiz, Kazakh), Russia and reduce its flight path to 2/3rd of the prior (it was earlier over B'desh, Myanmar, China & Japan for a flight from SFO to Delhi. This has tremendous tangible and intangible benefits. One major benefit is that of flight safety.

Point is, the overland flight routes are priceless. An airport in between with facilities to take care of emergencies is a bonus. India has to think like a $5T economy now and in 10 years of a $15T economy. By 2040, Indian economy will be $20T. Bakistan will be 1% of Indian economy, even if it is somehow able to last that long.

So yes, we have to think of becoming the center with entire ME, the ASEAN, parts of CAR and of course the near India East (Myanmar, B'Desh) and the Africa becoming our satellites.

===

I think we have to plan for managing the collapse of Bakistan. There will be lot of trading that will happen.