PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 16 Mar 2014 04:23

ArmenT wrote:From The Guardian:
China's Li Keqiang warns investors to prepare for wave of bankruptcies
Premier Li Keqiang told lenders to China's private sector factories they should expect debt defaults as the world's second largest economy encounters "serious challenges" in the year ahead.

Speaking after the annual session of the national people's congress, Li Keqiang said: "We are going to confront serious challenges this year and some challenges may be even more complex." He told lenders to China's private sector factories they should expect debt defaults.
...
...
Li's warning followed the failure of Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy to make a payment on a 1bn yuan (£118m) bond last week. The default was the first of its kind for China and widely seen as pointing to the end of 11th-hour government bailouts for troubled enterprises.
Sounds kinda serious, especially since this news is coming straight from the President of China himself.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory explained-

Internationally, the ABCT might work something like this: the Fed expands credit, and thereby the money supply, during a recession in order to stimulate domestic aggregate demand. But it creates more money than US citizens want to hold, so they buy more imported consumer goods from China and investments from EM countries. The export of investment funds causes the boom in the higher order phases of the capital structure in EM nations instead of the US where the Fed intended the funds to go.

Of course, Europe and Japan add to the world’s stock of reserve currencies and tend to expand credit in sync with the US, thereby multiplying the effects.

At some point, the Fed will begin to cut back on credit expansion in order to head off rising price inflation at home. Investors will repatriate their money from EM nations and cause a decline in the EM foreign exchange rate with respect to the dollar, yen, and euro. The IIF report from October warned that, “... other things equal, if market expectations for the U.S. policy interest rate were to rise from the current 1 percent at end-2015 to 2 percent, this could result in a retrenchment of EM portfolio flows of around $43 billion ...”[3]

The sliding exchange rate will make debts by EM governments and businesses that are denominated in dollars and euros more difficult to repay and cause some bankruptcies. If EM nations try to defend their foreign exchange rate through higher interest rates to attract more investment, they make domestic borrowing more difficult and run the risk of exacerbating the business slump.

So EM nations face two problems at the same time: (1) the withdrawal of investment funds from the US and (2) a collapse in the demand for commodities as the boom ages and turns into a bust.

If only the Fed could see the damage it causes not just at home, but worldwide.

http://mises.org/daily/6692/Fiat-Money- ... ng-Markets

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 16 Mar 2014 16:17

Liu what strikes me is the fact that Chinese have so much money tied up in real estate. They are not lent out, so they earn nothing and are a resource which is not being used. Now in any construction, residential and non-residential, there are two main cost components. The cost of land and the cost of structure. Since the day the structure is constructed, it's price starts to drop, because it starts to degrade. The only thing which has an option to rise is cost of land. And if cost of land rises more than the depreciation of the cost of structure, does the cost of the unit of building rise. Moreover there has to be somebody willing to buy the house. The current situation is very similar to what happened in US, prior to 2007 when houses were bought for just filliping.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 16 Mar 2014 17:16

Christopher Sidor wrote:Liu what strikes me is the fact that Chinese have so much money tied up in real estate. They are not lent out, so they earn nothing and are a resource which is not being used. Now in any construction, residential and non-residential, there are two main cost components. The cost of land and the cost of structure. Since the day the structure is constructed, it's price starts to drop, because it starts to degrade. The only thing which has an option to rise is cost of land. And if cost of land rises more than the depreciation of the cost of structure, does the cost of the unit of building rise. Moreover there has to be somebody willing to buy the house. The current situation is very similar to what happened in US, prior to 2007 when houses were bought for just filliping.

the situation in CHina is not similar to USA prior to 2007,but that during 1870s-193os,when USA was experiencing rapid urbanization.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 16 Mar 2014 19:08

99% of business in CHINA are SMEs ( small and medium ) ? If this is true then a debt crisis will wipe out the economy just like this as SMEs are the first to fold up when a debt crisis happens

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 17 Mar 2014 00:39

China Plans to Spend Over $163 Billion Redeveloping Shantytowns

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-1 ... -says.html

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 17 Mar 2014 08:43

Liu wrote:the situation in CHina is not similar to USA prior to 2007,but that during 1870s-193os,when USA was experiencing rapid urbanization.

Which it should be noted ended with the great depression.

Still no one doubts that China has made progress WRT productivity. The question is if they have found a short cut to the First world, without political rights, open exchange of ideas and IP. That is the claim subtly being made when folks post the 23 million car data point. The underlying claim is China has already arrived as it buys more cars than the west. It is that dichotomy that gives everyone pause. Even Japan & SoKo were democracies and open societies with proper financial systems and legal systems during their move from Second world to First world.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 17 Mar 2014 10:28

Theo_Fidel wrote:
Liu wrote:the situation in CHina is not similar to USA prior to 2007,but that during 1870s-193os,when USA was experiencing rapid urbanization.
Which it should be noted ended with the great depression.

Still no one doubts that China has made progress WRT productivity. The question is if they have found a short cut to the First world, without political rights, open exchange of ideas and IP. That is the claim subtly being made when folks post the 23 million car data point. The underlying claim is China has already arrived as it buys more cars than the west. It is that dichotomy that gives everyone pause. Even Japan & SoKo were democracies and open societies with proper financial systems and legal systems during their move from Second world to First world.

I think a strong argument may be made that Japan and SoKo became more like democracies AFTER they made their move from the second to the first world. Similarly for Singapore and Taiwan.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 17 Mar 2014 11:20

Theo_Fidel wrote:
Liu wrote:the situation in CHina is not similar to USA prior to 2007,but that during 1870s-193os,when USA was experiencing rapid urbanization.
Which it should be noted ended with the great depression.

Still no one doubts that China has made progress WRT productivity. The question is if they have found a short cut to the First world, without political rights, open exchange of ideas and IP. That is the claim subtly being made when folks post the 23 million car data point. The underlying claim is China has already arrived as it buys more cars than the west. It is that dichotomy that gives everyone pause. Even Japan & SoKo were democracies and open societies with proper financial systems and legal systems during their move from Second world to First world.

if there were one shortcut to the 1st world so called, then the shortcut would be to avoid the uselss arguing of ideology,adoping any measure which befenits the moderniaztion.
just as Deng Xiaoping said, any cat which can catch mouses is good one.
However, many indians ,inlcuding you,insist arguing democracy is a better way to modernization than autocracy,which is wrong.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 17 Mar 2014 11:33

subhamoy.das wrote:99% of business in CHINA are SMEs ( small and medium ) ? If this is true then a debt crisis will wipe out the economy just like this as SMEs are the first to fold up when a debt crisis happens

Chinese government firmly controlls almost all key industry sectors,from banks to manufacturing tycoons.
it has much more ways to adjust economy than other countries,some of which are impossible to other governments.

for example,
Chinese government is the largest borrowers in CHina,which borrowing trillions $ from banks.
At the same time, almost all banks belong to Chinese government.

that means, CHinese government is the largest ultimate borrower and lender at the same time. it owns itself.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 17 Mar 2014 16:25

DavidD wrote:I think a strong argument may be made that Japan and SoKo became more like democracies AFTER they made their move from the second to the first world. Similarly for Singapore and Taiwan.

Which is why they will always remain middle-ranking powers and followers of the West. If China ends up becoming just a bigger Japan or Taiwan, it is good news for Indians because we can go much further.

There are many 'good' aspects of China's development (the most obvious being the infrastructure). However its autocratic structure has resulted in an entire mass of people who are living life essentially as 'automaton workers' and 'empty shells'. This phenomenon is seen in every social class in China. Anybody who has spent time in China outside of the glitz of downtown Shanghai will realize this. Ultimately, no country can sustain this type of population and mindset.

Thus, all my interactions in China and with Chinese, and in India and with other Indians, reinforce both my admiration of what China has done and my conviction that ultimately, India is better.

Your counterpoints are informative and interesting, but do not change the reality.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 17 Mar 2014 17:58

Liu wrote:[
if there were one shortcut to the 1st world so called, then the shortcut would be to avoid the uselss arguing of ideology,adoping any measure which befenits the moderniaztion.
just as Deng Xiaoping said, any cat which can catch mouses is good one.
However, many indians ,inlcuding you,insist arguing democracy is a better way to modernization than autocracy,which is wrong.

The concept of 1st world IS actually based on various ideas including the idea of democracy. So there is no short cut for you. Of course why take western universalism on the face value. Let's redefine them here today. This is my original thought.

Better term is emerging economies and submerging economies.

Emerging economies(EE) - I do not include Brazil or South Africa in them as they are a natural extension of white domination. Only the whites in these 2 countries have benefitted. In China and India there is a bit more trickle down, however Chinese economy is coupled with 2- USA and Middle East. Indian economy is coupled with only Middle East as we depend on oil like other countries. Russia was never emerging. It has already emerged.

Submerging economies(SE)- the west as we know it constitutes submerging economies. This is too broad a term, Germany or US cannot be classified like France, UK, Northern Europe, Scandinavia, Canada or Australia. Germany/US if they reinvent after the oil crunch, will become big again. But they are carrying dead weight if other countries with them. The submerging economies also have another problem. The demographics is not geared towards coping and re growth. It will be a decade or 2 before they have a chance to compete with the emerging economies. The hope of recolonisation is mirage, which EE will deal quite punitively if attempted. The break down of law&order is going to be serious issue. With heavily armed local population in mainland US, I dread to think how anyone would cope.

If India survives upto 2020 intact, the world is our for the taking. China can too do that but a restive population is not likely to allow a smooth transition from one economic paradigm to another.

All this emerging-submerging depends on oil. If we can go nuclear long term, our destiny will be in our hands.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 17 Mar 2014 18:51

Liu wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:99% of business in CHINA are SMEs ( small and medium ) ? If this is true then a debt crisis will wipe out the economy just like this as SMEs are the first to fold up when a debt crisis happens
Chinese government firmly controlls almost all key industry sectors,from banks to manufacturing tycoons.
it has much more ways to adjust economy than other countries,some of which are impossible to other governments.

for example,
Chinese government is the largest borrowers in CHina,which borrowing trillions $ from banks.
At the same time, almost all banks belong to Chinese government.

that means, CHinese government is the largest ultimate borrower and lender at the same time. it owns itself.

You are contradicting your self. In one post u claim that most of the jobs and enterprises are in private sector and then in others u say that most of the industry is state controlled. Which one is true?

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 18 Mar 2014 18:07

subhamoy.das wrote:
Liu wrote:Chinese government firmly controlls almost all key industry sectors,from banks to manufacturing tycoons.
it has much more ways to adjust economy than other countries,some of which are impossible to other governments.

for example,
Chinese government is the largest borrowers in CHina,which borrowing trillions $ from banks.
At the same time, almost all banks belong to Chinese government.

that means, CHinese government is the largest ultimate borrower and lender at the same time. it owns itself.
You are contradicting your self. In one post u claim that most of the jobs and enterprises are in private sector and then in others u say that most of the industry is state controlled. Which one is true?

key industry sectors are not most industry sectors.
for example,
almost all banks in CHina are controlled by CHinese government( center government or local governments).
so,quite a part of banks loans are poured into state-owned enterprises.

espeically,most investors on infastructures are state-owned ones,which usually get lots of bank loans.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 21 Mar 2014 22:18

China Faces “Minsky Moment” on Ponzi Financing

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 23 Mar 2014 12:14

DavidD wrote:
Liu wrote:the situation in CHina is not similar to USA prior to 2007,but that during 1870s-193os,when USA was experiencing rapid
I think a strong argument may be made that Japan and SoKo became more like democracies AFTER they made their move from the second to the first world. Similarly for Singapore and Taiwan.

Japan and South Korea are homogenous countries. Japan had a dysfunctional democracy right upto late 1920s. On what basis is a parallel sought to be drawn with these two nations?

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 23 Mar 2014 13:53

Most sectors of the economy are directly or indirectly govt. controlled thru JVs.
Interestingly, the internet/IT sector is where the Chinese entrepreneurship is most vibrant (Alibaba, Tencent etc), although it has benefited by strong govt. bias against foreign IT companies (Google,twitter, amazon etc).

I have traveled quite a bit over last year in Chinese 1st & 2nd tier cities for work.
Needless to say, Chinese growth story has been spectacular with extraordinary wealth creation and many bright spots (infra, manufacturing etc) over last couple of decades.

Initially the growth was driven by export model where West kept borrowing to buy Chinese goods. As we all saw, this didn't sustain & petered out in 2007-8. Domestic consumption was just not enough to keep the economy growing at the rate it has been.So over the least years (since 2007) the growth was primarily driven by stupendous investment (the likes of which world has never seen) in infra & real-estate made from borrowed money - loads and loads of money. The amount of money injected by Chinese banks over last 7-8 years amounts to 15 trillion dollars (almost 2XGDP)!! This is not sustainable either. Something gotta give. Brief analysis & very telling data/graphs here:

http://houseofdebt.org/2014/03/13/china ... -debt.html

However, in my discussions with Chinese colleagues, I see this belief in them about "Chinese exceptionalism", which would defy laws of economics. Tremendous faith in the govt. to do "something" to keep this growth going "somehow". May be it wud...abhi picchaar baaki hai..

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Mar 2014 09:34

Another China Crack: Ultra-Luxury Hong Kong Real Estate Being Dumped For Cash

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 25 Mar 2014 22:11

gashish wrote:Most sectors of the economy are directly or indirectly govt. controlled thru JVs.
Interestingly, the internet/IT sector is where the Chinese entrepreneurship is most vibrant (Alibaba, Tencent etc), although it has benefited by strong govt. bias against foreign IT companies (Google,twitter, amazon etc).

I have traveled quite a bit over last year in Chinese 1st & 2nd tier cities for work.
Needless to say, Chinese growth story has been spectacular with extraordinary wealth creation and many bright spots (infra, manufacturing etc) over last couple of decades.

Initially the growth was driven by export model where West kept borrowing to buy Chinese goods. As we all saw, this didn't sustain & petered out in 2007-8. Domestic consumption was just not enough to keep the economy growing at the rate it has been.So over the least years (since 2007) the growth was primarily driven by stupendous investment (the likes of which world has never seen) in infra & real-estate made from borrowed money - loads and loads of money. The amount of money injected by Chinese banks over last 7-8 years amounts to 15 trillion dollars (almost 2XGDP)!! This is not sustainable either. Something gotta give. Brief analysis & very telling data/graphs here:

http://houseofdebt.org/2014/03/13/china ... -debt.html

However, in my discussions with Chinese colleagues, I see this belief in them about "Chinese exceptionalism", which would defy laws of economics. Tremendous faith in the govt. to do "something" to keep this growth going "somehow". May be it wud...abhi picchaar baaki hai..

CHIna does not defy the law of ecnomics.
instead, it is west guys and many guys here that misunderstand the law of economic .

For example,
those viewpoints are very popular among guys here and in west world,but they are quite questionable.

1. democracy can help economic better than autocracy
2. consumption-driven economic is more sustainable than investment-driven ones.
..etc

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 26 Mar 2014 09:57

There is no hard and fast rule about capitalism governance other than capitallism is helped by positive promotion whether it is under a top down hierarchy or democracy. There are various levels of socialism in democracy as well from Sweden down to the US.

In the US we believe the less interference with capitalism, the better. However, there is a destructive side to capitalism as well as a growth side. Just looking at the Dow Jones index companies (IIRC there are 30 of them) the list from 50 years ago doesn't look anything like it does today. So yes, there is a destructive side but also an enormous growth side. It's just that there is no straight line chart to it. It goes up and down. Overall the chart may go up over time but there is no reliable predictive value to it. Stuff happens.

It is also a belief of mine that the more state sponsored a business is the more inflexible it becomes at time passes by. I would point out Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae in the US as an example. At one time they worked real well. Then 2008 happened. Such things can happen in China also. China, like the US, is not perfect, mistakes will be made. It is the way of humanity.

It encompasses a lot of the wishful thinking that poses as gold analysis on this forum. They want to see the US and China go down, therefore their analysis is skewed that way and you cannot reason against it.

To encapsulate, it should have been no surprise that when the ruling hierarchy released the Chinese economy, it sprung forward hugely. China had centuries of entrepanuership and trading experience before it was shuttered by Mao for 50 years. And for almost a thousand years the west has sought trade with China as made famous by the tales of Marco Polo. China has made trade goods since time in memorial. One could write novels about it.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 27 Mar 2014 23:20

TSJones wrote:It encompasses a lot of the wishful thinking that poses as gold analysis on this forum. They want to see the US and China go down, therefore their analysis is skewed that way and you cannot reason against it.

I don’t think this is true. Folks in India are not sure that what works in China or USA will work in India. The discussion is always about which pieces are usable in India rather than any enmity. Many pieces of USA can be used in India, China, we struggle find any pieces that are usable and hence are quite negative.

It doesn’t help that the Chinese 50-cent posters are devoid of introspection and see no flaws with the weird China economy. But who are we kidding here, BRF is blocked in China so we all know who in China has posting privileges.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 28 Mar 2014 02:27

Most of the Chinese who post here are either in Taiwan or US and Canada. Like the Indians that post here, they identify with the mother country and not the country they live in. It's all about the jobs. They see no particular thing they like about the US other than the jobs and economic access that they can't get in their mother country.

That is not to sterotype all the immigrants to the US. A lot of them do not feel that way. I am only referencing those that post here on the forum. Those who live in India (we are excluding the Chinese here because they mostly do *not* live in China) seem deeply convinced that the US economy is headed for the pits. I submit that is wishful thinking. The Chinese who post here assume ultimate economic superiority by China within a specific year! Such statements as "by the year 2020 China's economy will be larger than the US" may or may not happen. They are assuming a straight line graph. Who knows? It might happen. Or, it might not, it all depends because stuff happens.

The Gold Bugs who post here seem to think that the US must fail for them to succeed. Maybe, maybe not. But they make all kinds of bombastic statements that are entirely misleading in support of their belief systems. And they repeat propaganda of those who make careers of dealing in or advertising of gold.

The statement by Liu that all Americans believe that democracies are best for capaitalism may have a ring of truth to it. But China is no example of the opposite. It is merely responding to 50 years of communism and being released to pursue capitalism. There is nothing special about their top down hierarchy.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 28 Mar 2014 20:31

How much is the Chinese debt per capita? May be it can take 4 times the US debt as it has 4 times the US population. This gigantic debt will surely have an mega effect. When and what will it trigger it is the only question that remains to be answered.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 28 Mar 2014 20:34

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ti ... 32857.html

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 28 Mar 2014 20:35

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... omb-hiding

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 28 Mar 2014 20:36

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... 7Q20140326

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 Mar 2014 22:21

David Stockman : China’s Monumental Ponzi: Here’s How It Unravels

As the 21st century dawned, China had about $1 trillion of credit market debt outstanding, but after a blistering pace of “borrow and build” for 14 years it now carries nearly $25 trillion. But here’s the thing: this stupendous 25X growth of debt occurred in the context of an economic system designed and run by elderly party apparatchiks who had learned their economic from Mao’s Little Red Book!

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 29 Mar 2014 06:11

TSJones wrote:Most of the Chinese who post here are either in Taiwan or US and Canada. Like the Indians that post here, they identify with the mother country and not the country they live in. It's all about the jobs. They see no particular thing they like about the US other than the jobs and economic access that they can't get in their mother country.

That is not to sterotype all the immigrants to the US. A lot of them do not feel that way. I am only referencing those that post here on the forum. Those who live in India (we are excluding the Chinese here because they mostly do *not* live in China) seem deeply convinced that the US economy is headed for the pits. I submit that is wishful thinking. The Chinese who post here assume ultimate economic superiority by China within a specific year! Such statements as "by the year 2020 China's economy will be larger than the US" may or may not happen. They are assuming a straight line graph. Who knows? It might happen. Or, it might not, it all depends because stuff happens.

The Gold Bugs who post here seem to think that the US must fail for them to succeed. Maybe, maybe not. But they make all kinds of bombastic statements that are entirely misleading in support of their belief systems. And they repeat propaganda of those who make careers of dealing in or advertising of gold.

The statement by Liu that all Americans believe that democracies are best for capaitalism may have a ring of truth to it. But China is no example of the opposite. It is merely responding to 50 years of communism and being released to pursue capitalism. There is nothing special about their top down hierarchy.

1. mainland Chinese are more active than you think,although most of them are silentr readers.
some of the discusssions here are also translated into chinese and reposted in Chinese websites,which is not unknow to indians here.

2. CCP does build Greatfire wall in cybespace but it can hardly isolate CHinese netizens,because most Chinese are curious to the world outside CHina and can break though the great easily with proxy or other tools.

3. West medias also builds one huge great fire wall in the minds of west guys and india guys here.it feed west guys and india guys take it granted that some paticular cases are universal ,such as " democracy is good and autocracy is bad".
Moreever,the greatfire in the mind make west guys and indias used to second-handed informaiton feed by west medias and lose interest in reading,seeing what is happening in the world by themselves.
that is why many indians here even didn't know privated sectors has been the main sector in CHina for decades......

4. China is already the global largest industry country,which industry capacity is by far larger tha USA. the simple case is that CHina outputs more and buys more than USA.
word that USA's nominal GDP is still ahead of CHina is purely a digital game,which give more confidence to those guys who can not accept the changed world.
so, Such statements as "by the year 2020 China's economy will be larger than the US" just tell us that most west guys and indians guys still are not used to the world today.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 29 Mar 2014 06:18

subhamoy.das wrote:How much is the Chinese debt per capita? May be it can take 4 times the US debt as it has 4 times the US population. This gigantic debt will surely have an mega effect. When and what will it trigger it is the only question that remains to be answered.

most of Chinese government debt is used to build infrastructures,plants and so on ,which helps China expand wealth-creating capacity.

most of west/india government debt is used for medical-care,salarys of governmental employees and so on, which can not help the country expand wealth-creating capacity ,but help the country expand wealth-consuming capacity.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 29 Mar 2014 09:13

A lot of that debt was geared toward building an export driven economy that may or may not continue to work for China. Automation of manufacturing will continue to take over more of fabrication and assembly of goods needed by a modern economy.

Ultimately, what is going to happen is that manufacturing will go back to be closer to the customer because the customer will pefer those goods that are tailored to them personally. I call it local customization on a global scale.

All made possible by that damned computer chip.

I will point out, these advanced techniques will come from the western style democracy culturally influenced capitalism.

And I will also point out that China's good buddy and friend Japan

........is no slouch at this either. Oh! Gosh almighty, I forgot. The west set up Japan's government and a corn cob pipe smoking western War Lord personally supervised it.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 29 Mar 2014 15:52

TSJones wrote:A lot of that debt was geared toward building an export driven economy that may or may not continue to work for China. Automation of manufacturing will continue to take over more of fabrication and assembly of goods needed by a modern economy.
Ultimately, what is going to happen is that manufacturing will go back to be closer to the customer because the customer will pefer those goods that will be tailored to them personally. I call it local customization on a global scale. All made possible by that damned computer chip.

I will point out, these advanced techniques will come from the western style democracy culturally influenced capitalism.

And I will also point out that China's good buddy and friend Japan ........is no slouch at this either. Oh! Gosh almighty, I forgot. The west set up Japan's government and a corn cob pipe smoking western War Lord personally supervised it.

1. the autumatiion tech has been mature for decades. you idea that robot will replace labors is a vey old one,which appeared decades ago while robot appeared.,

However ,nowdays, man labour still is the mainstream,and robots/autumoation tech is still just active in some some paticular industry sectors,such as auto industry.

2.it is not the problem of tech,but the problem of cost/performance that automation/robot can not replace man labor.
In many areas,especially in developing country, it is much cheaper to hire workers to set up automation assembling lines.

3.as long as capitalists can find enough cheap man labor for their plants, automation/robot can not replace man labour completely.
Unfortunately, there are still billions of people in the 3rd world,who are struggling for basic food and clothes.
So, in the coming decades, capitalists all over the world needn't worry about the case that they can not find cheap labour any more.

4. goods that will be tailored to customers of course is more wonderful than uniform goods ..however it also means high cost and expensive.

that is why only rich guys afford or tailored clothes and most ordinacy peope have to buy garments.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 29 Mar 2014 16:00

3D printing is only just begining. It will get way more complex. Some of our suburban couch potatoes in the US are already making weapons and gun parts with it. It's our cultural forte in fact.

Kids. What will they come up with next?

In fact I predict when someone wants to acquire a new weapon of any type, the answer will be "there's an app for that".

Ditto for a whole range of other goods to be custom manufactured.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 29 Mar 2014 20:25

And this is for Liu,

http://www.bcg.com/documents/file84471.pdf

...made in America, again

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 30 Mar 2014 03:45

3D printing is only just begining. It will get way more complex. Some of our suburban couch potatoes in the US are already making weapons and gun parts with it. It's our cultural forte in fact. Kids. What will they come up with next?

In fact I predict when someone wants to acquire a new weapon of any type, the answer will be "there's an app for that".

I am at a loss as to the reason for this gun culture. The terrible irony is that about 300 kids are killed annually due to accidental firearm discharge. Almost all in households that would be pro-NRA.

What kind of people are these who would sacrifice their/our own children?

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 30 Mar 2014 05:32

Generally children don't have access to 3d printers but young men do. WHen I said kids I was using poetic license so to speak. But I have to agree with you that children do get killed by guns in the US

. There is a lot of thoughtless gun ownership out there. We in the US of course decry child labor as practiced by third world countries. I guess it all depends on political ideology.

Far more children are killed in the US in car accidents, getting run over while riding bicycles, failure to use safety helmets when riding bikes, and failure to use seat belts while riding in cars. Plus, there is gang warfare in urban cities amongst the disadvantaged.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 30 Mar 2014 13:47

TSJones wrote:3D printing is only just begining. It will get way more complex. Some of our suburban couch potatoes in the US are already making weapons and gun parts with it. It's our cultural forte in fact. Kids. What will they come up with next?

In fact I predict when someone wants to acquire a new weapon of any type, the answer will be "there's an app for that".

Ditto for a whole range of other goods to be custom manufactured.

3D print is not universally superioror to traditional manufacturing.

its superiority to traditional manufacturing just exist in some particular sectors.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 30 Mar 2014 15:03

^ for now.

Everything can be improved. And when manpower becomes expensive, 3D printing may resolve the issue of limited manpower in certain aspects.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Mar 2014 16:55

Boom Bust : China's credit crisis and discuss how a hard rain's a-gonna fall. ( starts at 23:40 )

http://rt.com/shows/boom-bust/market-mo ... olicy-781/

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 30 Mar 2014 17:58

panduranghari wrote:^ for now.

Everything can be improved. And when manpower becomes expensive, 3D printing may resolve the issue of limited manpower in certain aspects.

however, billions of people all over the world are still struggling for food ,clothes and basi accomodation..

To them, a job in sweatshops is quite attractive.

so, the manpower won't become expensive" enough to make capitalists give up traditional manufacturing assembly line....at least in the coming 50 years.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 30 Mar 2014 18:02

Austin wrote:Boom Bust : China's credit crisis and discuss how a hard rain's a-gonna fall. ( starts at 23:40 )

http://rt.com/shows/boom-bust/market-mo ... olicy-781/

here is the best remark on the article:

The Western economy debts are cuased by over spending in cosumptions, welfare payments, warmongering, callapse of financial markets, evaporation of derivatives etc.
Chinese debts are mainly caused by investment in infrastructures and other useful assets which remain to be viable assets to generate benefit for China. In addition, with tremendous current account surplus, China can handle the situation with good will and excellent resource.
Like Mark Twain said: "The proclaimation of China's demise is premature and exaggerated."

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Mar 2014 18:55

^^ China debts are also caused by Shadow Banking and Bad Debts that perhaps would be written off.

I think the advantage that China has over Western Economy is they still grow at 5-6 % and are now gradually focussing on internal growth rather than export driven which wont last for ever ..... how ever it needs to be seen if this transistion is sucessfully maitaining the same growth and without creating social disorder.

I was watching On China series on CNN and the ex China ambassador to US mentioned that within next 10 years the Communist Party would move toward some form of Democracy ..... Is that the thinking as well in China ?