https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-battle- ... -security/
Throughout the last century, China was primarily a land-based power. But in its 2015 white paper on military strategy, Beijing explicitly set out its goal of becoming “a maritime power” before beginning to modernise and expand the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The expansion of the PLAN from a coastguard into a so-called blue-water navy, which is capable of operating globally and across the deep waters of open oceans, laid the foundation for China to extend its overall presence in the Indo-Pacific.
For India, the Indian Ocean is a key strategic and economic theatre, and the centre of its diplomatic, military, and regional engagements. New Delhi considers itself as the regional “net security provider”, a status which is threatened by China’s growing presence in its neighbourhood. For Europe, the Indian Ocean is a primary gateway to the prosperous markets of the Indo-Pacific: Europe exports over 35 per cent of its goods to Asia and four of its top ten trading partners are in the region. As such, Europe is heavily dependent on the security of the sea lines of communication through the Indian Ocean. China’s growing naval presence in the region ultimately provides it with so-called anti-access or area-denial capabilities to prevent or limit the freedom of other actors operating within the area. These would allow Beijing to control the traffic in parts of the Indian Ocean, potentially affecting European sea lines of communication, and constraining India’s ability to operate in the area, therefore limiting its influence and security.
In its 2021 “EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific”, the European Council highlighted the “intense geopolitical competition” in the Indo-Pacific and the potential negative repercussions on “trade and supply chains”. The strategy announced a policy of “partnership and cooperation”, putting engagement with partners in the region at the forefront of its approach. The EU has declared cooperation with India, in particular, as a priority in its engagement with the Indo-Pacific. In this context, this paper proposes that the EU and India jointly establish a regional maritime capacity building programme for the smaller island and coastal states in the Indian Ocean, modelled on the Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training (SEACAT) exercise initiated by the United States.
Such a programme would make it possible to partially meet the needs of some of the smaller countries in the Indian Ocean in terms of maritime security. In doing so, it would bring together regional players around the EU and India and therefore increase, at low cost, Europe’s and India’s visibility and ability to ensure security in the Indo-Pacific. The programme would serve as one element in a multifaced approach to respond effectively to China’s assertiveness in the Indian Ocean.
This paper analyses China’s main axes and modes of penetration in the Indian Ocean, and the political fragmentation of the region and weak capacity of the island and coastal states that facilitate this. It then proposes a joint EU-India Indian Ocean Cooperation and Training (IOCAT) maritime capacity building programme for island and coastal states that would strengthen maritime security in the Indian Ocean.
The 1998 white paper states that China “does not station any troops or set up any military bases in any foreign country”. In striking contrast, the most recent white paper, made public in 2019, emphasises the need to safeguard “China’s maritime rights and interests” and “overseas interests”, and openly mentions the existence of a PLAN base in Djibouti. The defence white papers published between these two documents reveal the development of China’s naval warfare capabilities. The defence white paper of 2000, which states that the navy has “weapons such as surface, submarine, naval aviation, coastal defense and marine corps, as well as other specialized units”, provided the first indication that China had acquired the capability for offshore defensive operations. The 2002 defence white paper notes that China not only has nuclear-powered submarines, but also nuclear counterattack capabilities. The next two white papers, published in 2004 and 2006, insist on strengthening naval capabilities in terms of armament and equipment, as well as the “gradual extension of the strategy for offshore defensive operations”. Both emphasise capacity building in integrated maritime operations.
China’s military expansion has gone hand in hand with its economic development. The 2008 defence white paper gave the navy new and unprecedented prominence. Nearly four pages are devoted to the corps, in contrast to the restrained one or two paragraphs in earlier documents. The context of this white paper is important: by 2007, China had overtaken the US as the world’s top exporter. For China and for the West, 2008 was a pivotal year. It saw the organisation of the Beijing Olympics – a political triumph for the Chinese authorities – but Chinese performances were not limited to the stadium. It was also the year of the most consequential financial crisis since 1929, surpassed only in 2020 by the economic consequences of the covid-19 pandemic. Chinese leaders, among others, interpreted the crisis as a sign of a declining West and an opportunity to be seized, but also the beginning of a period of tough competition. The 2008 white paper argued that “struggles for strategic resources, strategic locations, and strategic dominance have intensified”, and further suggested that the PLAN should develop “capabilities to conduct cooperation in distant waters”. It was also in 2008 that China sent a naval contingent on an anti-piracy mission to the Gulf of Aden for the first time.
Subsequent defence white papers all emphasised this need to operate further from China’s own shores in order to protect its interests abroad. The 2010 defence white paper insisted in particular on the development of capabilities for conducting operations in distant waters and the construction of land infrastructure and surface logistics platforms allowing the PLAN to operate far from its domestic bases. The 2013 document coincided with the launch of China’s first aircraft carrier, Liaoning, which marked a new phase for the PLAN. The 2015 white paper reiterated the PLA’s mission “to safeguard the security of overseas Chinese interests” and the need for the PLAN to “gradually shift from defending offshore waters” to combining the defence of offshore waters with “high seas protection”. This clearly showed China’s intention to “seize the strategic initiative in military competition”. Just a few months later, China began an ambitious programme to modernise its armed forces, investing heavily to upgrade military equipment and ships, with a particular focus on commissioning more nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers.
According to Joshua T White, former senior advisor and director of south Asian affairs in the US National Security Council, the PLAN has five objectives in the Indian Ocean:
1) to conduct non-combat activities focused on protecting Chinese citizens and investments and enhancing China’s soft power;
2) to undertake counterterrorism activities, unilaterally or with partners;
3) to gather intelligence in support of operational requirements and against key adversaries;
4) to support efforts aimed at coercive diplomacy towards the small countries of the region; and
5) to enable effective operations in a conflict environment. Among other things, these capabilities therefore prepare China to be able to deter, mitigate, or end a trade ban.
Beijing has also engaged in active diplomacy towards the small island states of the region. Geographically, four of these island states play a central role in the protection of the open sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean: Sri Lanka and the Maldives are located on the most direct route between China and the Middle East, while Mauritius and the Seychelles are located on the Asia-Africa maritime routes. They are also therefore located on the key maritime route between Europe and Asia.
Engaging with these four island states also has political value for China in the context of its competition with the US and India. China has been trying for decades to establish facilities near India, which would undoubtedly increase New Delhi’s vulnerability. For example, since 1986 Beijing has attempted to acquire, directly or indirectly, one of the islands of the Maldives archipelago.
China is the only country with an embassy on each of the six islands in the Indian Ocean. Beijing is also a dialogue partner in regional and sub-regional organisations that include the island states: the Indian Ocean Rim Association – of which Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Mauritius, and the Seychelles are all members – and the Indian Ocean Commission, whose member states all border the Mozambique Channel and include Mauritius and the Seychelles. China’s participation in these organisations not only helps it to foster relations with these states, it also provides it with recognition as a legitimate regional actor.
In November 2022, the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) – an organisation associated with the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs – held the first meeting of the China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation, which brought together some 19 states, not including India or any EU states. According to CIDCA, the forum aims to “pool wisdom and resources” and allow China to “strengthen cooperation with countries in the Indian Ocean region to grow the blue economy and advance the implementation of the GDI [Global Development Initiative] in the region” and “constantly expand the converging interests” between China and the countries in the Indian Ocean.
China’s presence in the Indian Ocean is not limited to military exercises. China has become a master of using grey zone strategies in the South China Sea as well as in the Indian Ocean. Grey zone strategies refer to the use of ambiguous tactics by a state to achieve its strategic objectives without engaging in overt military conflict. For example, China has used illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing to serve its broader strategic interests. With about 3,000 ships, China has built the world’s largest deep-water fishing fleet which allows it to operate in international waters and to encroach on other countries’ territorial waters. In 2021, the Indian Navy reported 392 incidents of IUU fishing in the northern Indian Ocean. All the coastal states in the Indian Ocean, including the island states as well as supposed partners in the area such as South Africa, Iran, and Pakistan, complain about China’s IUU fishing practices, which have significant economic and ecological consequences for the fisheries-dependent littoral states and their food security.[1] At the same time, fishing vessels are often used to smuggle people, drugs, and weapons and to conduct spy missions and gather intelligence, which is particularly concerning given the widespread presence of China’s fishing fleet.
The African coast of the Indian Ocean has thus become the stake of renewed struggles for influence without the states of the region having the means, military or otherwise, to defend their maritime sovereignty.
The African coast of the Indian Ocean remains almost entirely dependent on the outside world for its own maritime security. African naval forces were notably absent from the three naval operations put in place to ensure maritime security off the Horn of Africa: the EU’s EUNAVFOR Atalanta, NATO’s Ocean SHIELD, and the multinational Combined Maritime Task Force (CTF 151). The Seychelles was the only African country to contribute to CTF 151. South Africa, Mozambique, and Tanzania launched the only all-African anti-piracy operation in the Indian Ocean, Operation Copper, in 2011 in the Mozambique Channel, but South Africa has carried out the operation alone despite attempts to pool it. They have since regularly extended it, except for in 2012.
For example, the United Arab Emirates funded the MASE Program to promote maritime security in the eastern and southern Africa and Indian Ocean region, which ran from 2012 to 2020. Its general objective was to strengthen maritime security in the region and to create an environment conducive to economic development. More specifically, it aimed to strengthen the capacity of states and organisations in the region to implement the regional strategy and action plan against piracy and for maritime security. It involved various development initiatives, from vocational training to national and regional capacities in legal matters, intelligence, and regional coordination. Another example is the Critical Maritime Routes in the Indian Ocean (CRIMARIO) programme. Initiated and funded by the EU, it aimed to enhance maritime safety and security in the wider Indian Ocean region by supporting coastal nations to improve maritime situational awareness through information sharing networks and web-based incident management, as well as inter-agency workshops, training, and capacity building. When the CRIMARIO I programme ended in December 2019, the EU extended the project’s geographical reach to interconnect the Indo-Pacific under CRIMARIO II, which runs from 2020 until 2025.
India is the only regional power striving both to secure the area and to develop the capacities of the less endowed coastal and island states. In 2021, for example, it offered loans to Mauritius to purchase defence-related equipment and in 2022 it gifted a $20m floating dock to the Sri Lankan navy. Furthermore, the largest vessels in the two countries’ navies are Indian-built offshore patrol vessels and India has built an airstrip and jetty on the Mauritian island of Agaléga for surveillance purposes. India has also launched a coastal surveillance radar project in the Seychelles and upgraded the jetty and airstrip on Assumption Island for surveillance purposes. The ships and aircraft of its navy regularly carry out joint surveillance, patrols, and hydrographic surveys of the EEZs of Mauritius, the Seychelles, and the Maldives. It also conducts joint patrols with Indonesia and since 2005 has multiplied joint naval exercises with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council as well as, since October 2022, with the Mozambican and Tanzanian navies.
A maritime capacity building programme for island and coastal states in the Indian Ocean, organised on the scale of the entire region within the framework of the EU’s cooperation with India and modelled on the SEACAT programme, would constitute a useful contribution to these goals. Such a model, envisaged by leading maritime experts in India, would not address the whole problem posed by China’s penetration into the Indian Ocean.[2] However, it would make it possible to limit the space in which China operates today, and partially respond to the coastal states’ difficulties in controlling their territorial waters and EEZs which are significantly larger than their landmass. It would also allow the EU and India to draw the coastal states away from China’s orbit and align them around an EU-India axis.
The EU and India – in dialogue with the coastal and island states of the Indian Ocean as well as EU member states – should therefore follow this example to establish an Indian Ocean Cooperation and Training (IOCAT) programme. Once established, the programme could be expanded to include other south Asian and EU member states, including Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka, as well as France and Germany.
India, France, and Germany all participated in SEACAT 2022, organised in Singapore, and are therefore familiar with the exercise and able to implement it in the Indian Ocean. The programme would also facilitate interoperability between regional partners and the European and Indian navies. Furthermore, the EU’s role would make it possible to involve EU member states – which are still reluctant to participate in Coordinated Maritime Presences due to a lack of ships – more closely in the security of the region at a level compatible with their specific capacities and interests. While the EU claims to be developing its maritime cooperation with India, it has not yet officially defined this cooperation. The implementation of an IOCAT programme would therefore help deepen EU-Indian cooperation in the Indian Ocean.