Project 75I - It Begins

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Rakesh
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

maitya wrote: 15 Aug 2023 17:13=But then again not much makes any sense about this program anyway ... oh well!! :evil:
Rsatchi wrote: 15 Aug 2023 18:13 ^^ a la Air Force to end up with a mish mash of Subs
And a decade down the line all production lines will be kaput and we struggle for spares and maintenance
And the Circus will continue!!
The IN is looking for an ocean going SSK, along the lines of the now-cancelled Shortfin Barracuda (Attack Class) SSN of the Royal Australian Navy. A larger boat is required than the Scorpene, which can carry more fuel combined with a proven AIP module. As per the Navy, the Scorpene will not be sufficient for this task. They were also looking to incorporate a VLS module into Project 75I. I am not sure what happened with that requirement.

The Type 216 from Germany and the DSME-3000 (export variant of the KSS-III) from South Korea were the pair of candidates that could meet those Navy requirements. Threat perceptions and capability requirements have changed from when the Project 75 contract (Scorpene program) was signed and the Navy is looking for a vessel to meet those threats. They cannot afford an all SSN fleet, due to the high cost and long lead time of Project 75 Alpha.

The Project 75I program was supposed to be a stop gap SSN, till the Project 75A starts rolling out. Obviously that is not happening right now, as the P-75I is listing aimlessly. Many are to blame for this mess, but the primary actor is the Indian Navy;

^ The navy - in her usual obstinance* - refused to budge from the Project 75I program. They did not want to even entertain the idea of getting additional Scorpenes and wanted only the Project 75I. This delay wasted precious time and the submarine arm continued to dwindle further. See the date of the very first post in this thread (25 Oct 2014). This tamasha has been on for much earlier. Naval Group had reportedly offered to continue to the Scorpene line in India and build three additional boats, but the Navy insisted on the P75I.

^ The navy wanted an unobtanium boat with even more unobtanium manufacturing requirements. The OEMs balked at them and one after the other, they kept dropping out. MoD insisted on local production with liability resting on the OEM. Which OEM will sign up for this nonsense? Finally after relaxing the requirements, TKMS and Navantia re-entered the fray. Hanhwa has reportedly dropped out, perhaps due to the fact that there is no Indian partner left. TKMS has partnered with MDL and Navantia has partnered with L&T.

^ After the numbers dropped dangerously low, the Navy finally decided to order three additional Scorpene boats. What happened to the Navy - that all of a sudden - three additional Scorpene boats now suddenly look promising? But no Admiral (or politician or babu) will ever shoulder the blame for this delay. Had the Navy taken up Naval Group's offer, the first of three Scorpenes could very well have been on her way in construction. Now the Navy will have to wait till the early 2030s for the first Scorpene of the second batch to arrive.

^ The very idea of incremental capability upgrades is lost on the Indian Navy. Project 75I and IAC-2 are two excellent examples of this. Now the Navy has had to eat humble pie on both programs. They were making plans that the civilian bureaucracy had no intention of ever funding. The Navy was aghast when BARC wanted the Navy to fund the development of a nuclear reactor for IAC-2. The Navy thought that BARC would just gleefully jump on to the program and provide a nuclear reactor to the Navy with a red bowtie around it.

^ The ones whose lives are on the line - due to this malaise - are YOs (Young Officers), JCOs and NCOs. One YO even remarked (when referring to the submarine fleet, right after the Sindhurakshak incident), "Sir, we are sitting on ticking time bombs." When lives are lost, gift a Vir Chakra to their next of kin, sing Jana Gana Mana or Vande Mataram and then move on. Project 75I is a desirable program - in principle. But that does not mean you throw everything out the window and hold your breath, till you get what you want.

=============================================

* Usual Obstinance: This was all during the time of an euphoria/renaissance session that Naval HQ was experiencing in the middle of the previous decade. There were grandiose plans of EMALS-equipped aircraft carriers, a sizeable fleet of phoren MRCBF, nuclear powered submarines, etc. For Navy Admirals - exercising with US Navy Carrier Battle Groups during Malabar exercises - was love at first sight. A Nimitz Class aircraft carrier with AEW aircraft, naval fighters, ASW helis, etc combined with her battle group of AEGIS-equipped surface combatants and Virginia Class nuclear powered submarines were an aphrodisiac so powerful....that our Admirals had to have the same.

Navy Admirals were publicly announcing these programs (media events, press conferences, Navy Day, etc) and proudly claiming that there were no budgetary shortfalls envisaged. We all know how that panned out. That fever got a strong hold even on BRF, as this was the gyan --->

"Without a CATOBAR aircraft carrier, the Indian Navy will lose everything. CATOBAR is a must have."

Led by the Risk Assessor-in-Chief, who boldly proclaimed that 57 F-18SHs were going to be purchased by the Indian Navy, along with a 65,000 ton EMALS equipped aircraft carrier and would influence events all the way from Alaska to the South China Sea. And just like at Naval HQ, when asked where the funds for these fantasies were going to come from, the standard answer on BRF was, "Well, money should be there!" :roll:

CATOBAR aircraft carrier was just an excuse to get the F-18SH into the Indian Navy. Obviously the American apologists on BRF could never say that openly, so CATOBAR was the crutch to fall on. Even Ashley Tellis peddled that theory that the Indian Navy requires minimum of 65,000 tons to be a viable aircraft carrier. Wonder what the 42,000 ton Charles De Gaulle is then? She is a CATOBAR vessel and nuclear powered. She is limited only by the food carried onboard, just like any other CATOBAR aircraft carrier.

Now that the F-18SH lost the contest, the CATOBAR boys are all silent :) Now no more gyan about CATOBAR aircraft carriers :mrgreen:
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by maitya »

Rakesh wrote: 15 Aug 2023 20:34
maitya wrote: 15 Aug 2023 17:13=But then again not much makes any sense about this program anyway ... oh well!! :evil:
Rsatchi wrote: 15 Aug 2023 18:13 ^^ a la Air Force to end up with a mish mash of Subs
And a decade down the line all production lines will be kaput and we struggle for spares and maintenance
And the Circus will continue!!
The IN is looking for an ocean going SSK, along the lines of the now-cancelled Shortfin Barracuda (Attack Class) SSN of the Royal Australian Navy. A larger boat is required than the Scorpene, which can carry more fuel combined with a proven AIP module. As per the Navy, the Scorpene will not be sufficient for this task. They were also looking to incorporate a VLS module into Project 75I. I am not sure what happened with that requirement.
<snip>
Whilst I (or anybody) would agree with rest of the points, but I'm not sure what does this ocean-going-SSK mean?
IMVHO, if it's all about pure under-water endurance capability, then ~1.8 - 2.3K Ton platforms like Type-218SG (or even Type-212*) appears to be sufficient.
Afterall, the weight of the DRDO/NMRL PAFC-based AIP plug is speculated here to be ~300 Tons.
This AIP conforms to the typical standard that its length be less than 10 percent of the hull it is intended for and is a cylindrical plug that is neutrally buoyant and probably weighs less than 300 tons.
So it's the ask of VLS modules which would push the size/tonnage up to approx 4K Ton behemoths - and thus their unacceptably high prices.

--------------------------------------------------------
*Deliberately not mentioned Type-214, as, if we are paying such exorbitant price, then there's simply no scope of denying/withholding tech (non-magnetic steel etc) by the OEM. If pressed, we should simply walk away from such deals - but then again, nothing much makes sense about this deal anyway, so anything goes, I guess.
Last edited by maitya on 16 Aug 2023 15:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by maitya »

^^^^^^
Right on cue:
Germany, Spain in contest for $4.8 billion Indian submarine

Nothing new in the news report, except for a new value ($4.8b) being quoted ... also no mention of VLS capability.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

maitya wrote: 16 Aug 2023 12:56 Whilst I (or anybody) would agree with rest of the points, but I'm not sure what does this ocean-going-SSK mean?
An ocean-going SSK is another term for a cheaper SSN. The idea germinated in European shipyards (TKMS, Naval Group, etc) to cater to foreign customers that required a much larger boat than their predecessors, but did not have the money to invest in an all SSN fleet. European navies like Germany, France and Spain themselves do not operate such large SSKs. The Germany and Spanish navies are largely brown water navies (protect your coastline and EEZ), while France has a dedicated SSN fleet (Rubis Class and her successor, the Suffren Class).

So it is a case of brochuritis - get a phoren customer to salivate over a SSN capability, without having to invest in a SSN fleet. India is a prime customer for brochuritis :) Australia was another country that got caught up in the "Ocean-Going SSK" euphoria, till they realized the Time on Station (ToS) for a SSN was vastly superior to an Ocean-Going SSK. None of the three contenders in the Australian Navy's competition (to replace their Collins Class boats) could offer the ToS that a Virgnia Class or an Astute Class SSN provides. More on that later.

The Israeli Navy is among the few navies that operate a large SSK (Dolphin Class and the successor, the Dakar Class) fleet. They cannot afford a SSN fleet, but require an assured second strike capability. Their submarine capability is all rolled into one boat. She is a SSK, but carries nuclear tipped cruise missiles and has an endurance that is much longer than a regular SSK. Their boats come from Germany (TKMS). The lessons that TKMS learned on the Dolphin Class gave birth to the Type 216 that TKMS is now offering to international customers including India. TKMS sold a variant of the Type 216 to Singapore, called the Type 218SG which you mentioned. The upcoming Dakar Class is a successor of the Dolphin design.
maitya wrote: 16 Aug 2023 12:56IMVHO, if it's all about pure under-water endurance capability, then ~1.8 - 2.3K Ton platforms like Type-218SG (or even Type-212*) appears to be sufficient.
Endurance is just one critical aspect of a submarine, but since we are on the topic of endurance (another term is Time on Station), see this....

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4752&start=3760#p2582983

Look at the picture in the above link and see the endurance of a SSK vs that of a SSN. The numbers are based off the Royal Australian Navy's proposed (now cancelled) Attack Class SSK from Naval Group of France. Looking at the picture in the above link, see the differences;

* Patrol south of Indonesia: 83 - 84 days for a SSN versus 28 - 31 days for a SSK
* Patrol in the South China Sea: 77 days for a SSN versus 11 days for a SSK
* Patrol in the Malacca Straits: 78 days for a SSN versus 14 days for a SSK
* Patrol in the Timor Sea: 81 days for a SSN versus 23 days for a SSK

The SSN is only limited by the amount of food she can carry on-board, while the SSK is limited not only by food...but also fuel. An AIP does extend the range, but still the difference is startling. The endurance of a SSK is calculated by the distance travelled from home port to the destination for patrol and then the return journey back to home port. Once fuel runs out, you have to obviously refuel and a SSK cannot just pop out anywhere to refuel. A SSN has none of these issues with regards to fuel. The Virginia Class and Astute Class have enough fuel in their HEU reactor to last the life of the boat (30 years) and the Suffren Class's LEU reactor requires refueling once every 10 years.

In the Indian threat scenario, SSNs are absolutely vital for India. Especially if you have carrier battle groups (India has two) and a SSBN fleet (which India also has). For CBGs and SSBN fleets, a SSN acts as a strong deterrent against enemy submarines or surface combatants who could be looking to hunt and destroy them. So if the enemy is aware that you have a SSN fleet, then they now have to deploy additional assets to search for the SSN(s) lurking in the area. So what could be a more condensed and resource rich search (hunting for the SSBN or a CBG), now gets somewhat diluted as the enemy now has to divert (or deploy additional) resources to hunt for SSN(s) that will be ahead of the SSBN or CBG.

The Indian Peninsula is the second largest in the world and India needs both SSNs and SSKs. Both type of submarines serve a valuable role. IMVHO, they should have continued with the Scorpene production line along with the DRDO AIP module. Naval Group is already working on the Marlin Class (successor to the Scorpene Class) and Navantia is working on the S-80 Class (which had her genesis in the Scorpene Class). The S-80 is what Navantia is offering to India under the P-75I program.

Just look at the sheer irony of the Spanish offer. MDL built six Scorpenes in India and now requires a new ToT contract to build six new SSKs and Navantia is offering an updated Scorpene design to India. If Navantia does win the P-75I contest, it would be quite tragic. And until Hanwa of South Korea left the P-75I contest, they were offering the DSME 3000 (export variant of the KSS-III) whose predecessor was the Type 214 and whose predecessor was the Type 209 of which MDL built two in India. The Spanish and South Koreans adopted the design OR bought the same boats that India built and are now offering updated designs of those very boats to India. Which Admiral or Babu will take the blame for this?

Jumping to a whole new SSK type is not only expensive, but also involves a lengthy lead time and time is not something the Indian Navy has on her hands. A better use of financial resources would have been to develop the Project 75 Alpha program. These three proposed Scorpenes are too little and also coming too late. Continuing with another six Scorpenes (with incremental design upgrades) and then another follow on design would have served best. Sometimes I think our Admirals are more interested in fighting prestige wars, than actually fighting real wars. Also what will our babus do sitting in their comfortable AC offices in New Delhi? Needless complexity is what they learn in IAS school. The more complex you can make something, the more intelligent you are.
maitya wrote: 16 Aug 2023 12:56*Deliberately not mentioned Type-214, as, if we are paying such exorbitant price, then there's simply no scope of denying/withholding tech (non-magnetic steel etc) by the OEM. If pressed, we should simply walk away from such deals - but then again, nothing much makes sense about this deal anyway, so anything goes, I guess.
Just like the Type 214, the Type 216 on offer to India will not have the non-magnetic hull of the Type 212 that is in service with the German Navy. Such tech is not given to foreign customers (basically non European nations).
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Aditya_V »

The problem with non magnetic steel I thought it is good only for shallow waters like the Baltic. Those subs cannot dive to much depth.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by drnayar »

Rakesh wrote: Just like the Type 214, the Type 216 on offer to India will not have the non-magnetic hull of the Type 212 that is in service with the German Navy. Such tech is not given to foreign customers (basically non European nations).
I think the Israeli Dolphin 2s are derived from the 212s.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

Israel is an exception to many established rules and export norms. The Dolphin program is heavily subsidized by Germany.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Cain Marko »

Rakesh wrote: 16 Aug 2023 20:42
maitya wrote: 16 Aug 2023 12:56 Whilst I (or anybody) would agree with rest of the points, but I'm not sure what does this ocean-going-SSK mean?
An ocean-going SSK is another term for a cheaper SSN. The idea germinated in European shipyards (TKMS, Naval Group, etc) to cater to foreign customers that required a much larger boat than their predecessors, but did not have the money to invest in an all SSN fleet. European navies like Germany, France and Spain themselves do not operate such large SSKs. The Germany and Spanish navies are largely brown water navies (protect your coastline and EEZ), while France has a dedicated SSN fleet (Rubis Class and her successor, the Suffren Class).
Bhat eej Ocean-going yes-yes-K mean you ask?
SMX Ocean, of course! I think the IN has the hots for this pie-in-sky sub :lol: :roll:

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by SRajesh »

Rakeshji
Can I ask what is the strategic value of SSK in a Blue Water Navy(at least aspiring to be a blue water one)
There are rumours of Collaboration with Auz on Cocos and Reunion of Mauritius
If we consider Indian Ocean as our pond and aspire for a 3 CBG, are we looking at an overlap of SSK and SSN in Strategic roles
SSK's with VLS what are they going carry Cruise or Diwali Pataka?? and their own safety vis-a-vis Chinese hunter killers
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Pratyush »

Has the Navy actually done cost benefit analysis between the cost of procurement and periodic maintenance period of SSK and SSN.

Have they been able to figure out in order to maintain one boat at a particular area of operations. How many SSK are required vis a vis SSN.

I don't believe that SSK make any sense. Unless, you are basing them in Vietnam or Phillipines.

Doing that has its own diplomatic headaches.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Yagnasri »

SSKs are suppose to be good in shallow waters. Entire West side sea of Bharat are shallow AFAIK. So that may be one of the reasons. But I agree with you in respect of the larger point you are making, other than the cost SSKs now does not make any sense.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Pratyush »

Are nuclear boats so disadvantaged that a navy must have SSK for littoral operations?

The USN operates only a fleet of SSNs.

They don't seem to be complaining about the inability of such boats to operate in the coastal zones.

I know that this is not that clear cut. But doesn't seem to be a problem with the USN. Why is that?
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Manish_P »

Pratyush wrote: 17 Aug 2023 16:59 Are nuclear boats so disadvantaged that a navy must have SSK for littoral operations?

The USN operates only a fleet of SSNs.

They don't seem to be complaining about the inability of such boats to operate in the coastal zones.

I know that this is not that clear cut. But doesn't seem to be a problem with the USN. Why is that?
The US simply doesn't need SSKs. They have a very good sub-surface detection networked system on both their coasts. And their expeditionary doctrine requires long range, faster Nuclear powered submarines which can remain submerged for the entire duration of the mission.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

Rsatchi wrote: 17 Aug 2023 11:40Rakeshji
Can I ask what is the strategic value of SSK in a Blue Water Navy (at least aspiring to be a blue water one)
There are rumours of Collaboration with Auz on Cocos and Reunion of Mauritius
If we consider Indian Ocean as our pond and aspire for a 3 CBG, are we looking at an overlap of SSK and SSN in Strategic roles
SSK's with VLS what are they going carry Cruise or Diwali Pataka?? and their own safety vis-a-vis Chinese hunter killers
No need for the -ji :)

There is no hard and fast rule for SSK vs SSN. It boils down to what capability you want and are you willing to fork out those financial resources to meet those capabilities. SSK is for sea denial, while SSN is for sea control. Now that is a nice theory statement to put out, but there are various factors that ultimately decide what fleet composition you finally end up with;

1) Budgets
2) Technology available (either at home or from abroad)
3) The country's global or regional aspirations

In all three, India is charting a path of ambiguity. With China, it is the opposite and when it comes to technology, the ChiComs will beg, borrow or steal. At home, everything is done ad-hoc or in reactionary mode. The enemy has SSNs, so we too must have SSNs. The enemy has CATOBAR aircraft carriers, so we also must have the same. The enemy has stealth fighters, so we also need the same. There is no short term or long term plan, because no Govt (even the current one) has actually charted out what is India's global or regional aspirations. Sound bytes like Atmanirbhar Bharat don't count. Thus purchases end up as band aid solutions and never really meet their true potential.

The reason why SSKs and SSNs are vital for India basically boils down to cost. SSN fleets are very expensive to purchase, operate and maintain. While they provide unmatched capability, you have to be invested in the idea of an all SSN fleet. In a defence averse country like India, that is unlikely to happen. So a small SSN fleet is all that the Indian Navy can realistically aspire to. The P75 Alpha program will remain at the planned six SSNs for the forseeable future. Therefore submarine strength has to be built up with less expensive - but correspondingly less capable - SSKs (diesel electric boats).

The navy has determined what that balance is. The plan was 24 SSKs (six P75 boats + six P75I boats + twelve P76 boats) with six SSNs, but they are running way behind schedule. You cannot add the SSBN numbers (Arihant Class and the follow-on S5 Class) to this, as these boats do not serve in the traditional hunter killer role. That plan has now been revised, as three additional P75 boats are in negotiation with Naval Group. The Navy will thus likely have nine P75 boats plus six P75I boats, plus the follow on P76 boat.

Heaven only knows if the P75I contract will be the last imported submarine, as the P75 (Scorpene) contract supposedly came with ToT. If it did not, will India repeat the same mistake with the P-75I contract and just do license production? That remains to be seen, if and when the first P76 boat is launched. Hindsight is always 20/20, but we should have honestly just continued with the Scorpene line. I am hoping the Navy has a change of heart, post INS Kalvari's midlife refit with the DRDO AIP plug. Another six more Scorpenes (instead of the three that is being negotiated) would be the better path ahead.

Below are articles on SSNs vs SSKs. They are a must read and will give the reader a much greater appreciation for both type of boats. The key lesson to learn is not *APE* what other countries are doing, but rather what is important for India? Aping other countries will lead us to disaster. See our coastline, examine our littorals, look at our waters (Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean), examine our chokepoints, our routes for sea trade, our carrier battle groups, the Indian Navy's philosophy for naval warfare (i.e. sea control vs sea denial), our budgets, our governments, our politicians, etc.

After reviewing the above, you will soon realise that India does need both types.

The Right Submarine for Lurking in the Littorals
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedi ... -littorals

Conventional Submarines - Not Right for the US Navy
https://submarinesuppliers.org/wp-conte ... .-Navy.pdf

SSN vs SSK
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-inter ... ssn-vs-ssk

Nuclear versus diesel-electric: the case for conventional submarines for the RAN
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/nucle ... rines-ran/

Projecting Power
http://armedforcesjournal.com/projecting-power-2/
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

India's Monster Submarine Deal
https://www.news9plus.com/player/shortv ... arine-deal

https://twitter.com/SandeepUnnithan/sta ... 68344?s=20 ---> MoD receives bids for Rs 43,000 crore Project 75I submarine contract from @MazagonDockLtd + TKMS and @larsentoubro + Navantia consortia. What happens next?

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by SRajesh »

Rakesh,

then the six plus six start ASAP and stop the dilly dallying for 3 years.

If plans for a overlapping of SSK and SSN, then the doctrine should be fixed and not be at the whims and fancy of the CNS. Will the Government and the Baboos buy into this?

Probably safe if there’s no big regime change or else everything goes back to the drawing board and the Malai Express will start chugging.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

Rsatchi wrote: 17 Aug 2023 23:07 Rakesh,

then the six plus six start ASAP and stop the dilly dallying for 3 years.

If plans for a overlapping of SSK and SSN, then the doctrine should be fixed and not be at the whims and fancy of the CNS. Will the Government and the Baboos buy into this?

Probably safe if there’s no big regime change or else everything goes back to the drawing board and the Malai Express will start chugging.
@ RSatchi: See this exchange that Sandeep Unnithan just had on Twitter...

https://twitter.com/somnath1978/status/ ... 22413?s=20 ---> How is U212/4 or S80 superior to Scorpene/Shortfin Barracuda?

https://twitter.com/SandeepUnnithan/sta ... 64022?s=20 ---> Superior only from point of view of willingness of strategic partner to share submarine building technology. If* Naval Group sweetens 3-Scorpene deal, 75I could be imperiled.
* That is a *BIG* if! Will explain below...

https://twitter.com/somnath1978/status/ ... 64237?s=20 ---> And we are willing to drink that kool aid?

https://twitter.com/SandeepUnnithan/sta ... 01902?s=20 ---> GE haan :)

================================================

* The French are exceptional builders of diesel electric submarines and have a long line of proven designs, some of which have even been exported as in the case of the Agosta 70 and Agosta 90B to the Pakistan Navy and the Scorpene Class to the Indian Navy. They have also proven themselves in the nuclear submarine field, which is a whole other level of complexity and technological wizardry. Their Triomphant Class SSBN and their Rubis Class SSN (followed by the Suffren Class SSN) are very capable boats.

The French know that the tech they have is exceptional and are renowned for being extremely difficult to deal with. MDL has not had a very pleasant experience with the French, when it comes to sharing critical technology of the Scorpene submarine. The French are also tough negotiators and VERY shrewd. You don't become successful in selling arms to the world by being Mother Teresa or Mahatma Gandhi. The French will not part with their prized technology that easily. A six build SSK program (like Project 75) was not going to make them open their crown jewels to India.

But neither will TKMS of Germany or Navantia of Spain share technology with the Project 75I contract. Their is no incentive for any of these shipyards to do so, when they can squeeze the customer (India) on a future contract. After all, this is what happened with the Project 75 contract. Circle of Life between these European Shipyards. One contract goes to Naval Group, the next contract goes to TKMS, yet another to Navantia...but the European shipyards laugh all the way to the bank.

The only way to overcome this impasse is if Naval Group of France sees that losing out on the Project 75I contract is something too juicy to let go of. The estimated cost of $5 billion for the Project 75I contract, will easily double to $10 billion once you factor in cost overruns, India specific upgrades, inflation, etc. So what would make Naval Group sweeten the deal for India, as Sandeep Unnithan has implied in his tweet above?

AUKUS can be a very good incentive for India, if our negotiators play their cards right. What generates business for any shipyard? It is reputation and Naval Group has taken a huge hit on her business reputation by losing out on the Shortfin Barracuda deal. It was a stinging loss for Naval Group and a big hit on their financial outlook. The deal was an estimated AUS $90 billion that just flew out of Naval Group's hands, when the AUKUS announcement was made. Naval Group will be looking to make a comeback in the submarine export market and India is a prime customer for that.

If Naval Group can sweeten the deal (in the follow-on three Scorpene deal) by either adding additional boats at a reduced overall contract cost AND/OR if they offer the submarine technology that India is looking for, then the P-75I program could be in real danger. They have given presentations to senior Indian Naval officials (including a Navy Chief) on their Barracuda/Suffren program (mainly the LEU reactor and pump jet propulsion). They are well aware about India's Project 75 Alpha - the six build SSN program. If Naval Group can offer a honey pot sweet enough that checks off multiple boxes, then what would the point of Project 75I really serve?

What a $10 billion (my estimation) Project 75I contract, could jump even higher if you factor in sharing of n-sub technology. The question to find out is how bad does Naval Group want to make a comeback and can our Indian negotiators work out a deal? A follow on deal of this nature for Naval Group, could also reap geopolitical benefits for France and her Look East Policy.

Six Kalvari Class are already in service now. Build another six more (Improved) Kalvari Class boats with the required technology transfer. Then followed by another 6 + 6 build series of an indigenous design (with lessons learnt from the construction of the first 12 boats). Ship building is a continuous process. No shipyard rests on her laurels and no navy calls it a day, after completing a build program. You move on to the next improved design.
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Re: Indian Navy News & Discussion - 12 April 2021

Post by wig »

India looks at having over 55% indigenous parts in submarines
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... nes-536428
20 August 2023

extracts
India is looking to produce six next-generation stealth conventional submarines at a cost of $5.8 billion (Rs 42,000 crore). The Navy is looking to have 55 to 60 per cent of local content in these six vessels, sources said.
present level of indigenisation
The benchmark of local content has been arrived at seeing the progress of existing submarine construction at Mazagon Docks Limited in making six of the ‘Scorpene-class’ submarines with Naval Group of France. The first six Scorpenes have between 30-40 per cent local content.

Naval Group has promised 60 per cent indigenous content, including high-level technologies like combat systems and air-independent propulsion (AIP) for the next three vessels
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

VIDEO: https://x.com/BharatShaktiBSI/status/17 ... 63118?s=20 ---> Project 76 to develop 12 next-generation conventional-diesel submarines that will meet our requirements, says Navy Chief.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by drnayar »

Rakesh wrote: 02 Dec 2023 22:08 VIDEO: https://x.com/BharatShaktiBSI/status/17 ... 63118?s=20 ---> Project 76 to develop 12 next-generation conventional-diesel submarines that will meet our requirements, says Navy Chief.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Pratyush »

Every 4 to 5 months the Navy speaks about submarines.

The thread comes to page 1 and then promptly drops right back to page 3. But like the page 3 celebrities, there is no entertainment here. Only depression.

Given all the delay.

Even today, if the Navy decided, they can have a SSN by 2033-35 time frame. That will still be faster than this stupid program.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by MeshaVishwas »

Germany pushes for inter-governmental agreement for submarine deal with India - Dinakar Peri, The Hindu
On Germany, officials had said India asked Berlin to relax some of their licensing requirements for the export of spares and components under a BAFA (Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control) clearance, and a list was submitted to the German side in this regard. Officials have expressed concern over export clearances from Germany that have cropped up time to time.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by srai »

Has any new submarine-launched torpedo deal been signed? Or In still using old torpedoes for P-75 Scorpene SSK?

IMO, IN should just order follow-on 6x P-75 (instead of 3x) with more indigenization. For example, DRDO AIP, local manufacturers with more ToT etc.

Then while those are being built, start with the R&D of P-76.

No idle shipping yards.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

Please use Google Translate to read the link below. A variant of the submarine mentioned in the article below, is being offered to India under the P-75I program. Navantia has partnered with Larsen & Tubro for this venture.

Spanish Submarine fires test torpedoes
https://espada-e-escudo.blogspot.com/20 ... os-de.html
05 Feb 2024
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

Spain Ready For Full Technology Transfer, Lowest Price For Indian Navy’s $5-Bn Submarine Deal
https://news.abplive.com/india-at-2047/ ... pp-1668045
28 Feb 2024

Proposed ToT model for P-75I Project by Navantia.

https://x.com/alpha_defense/status/1762 ... 60033?s=20 --->

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Prem Kumar »

Is there a plan (Project 76 ??) for an indigenously designed & manufactured SSK?

CNS said our Navy will be 100% Atmanirbhar by 2047. How will it happen if we cannot make our own SSKs and SSNs? Coming to think of it, we don't have our own P8Is either

Or is the definition of Atmanirbhar like how Adani "Atmanirbhars" Hermes UAV?
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

Prem Kumar wrote: 28 Feb 2024 23:10 Is there a plan (Project 76 ??) for an indigenously designed & manufactured SSK?
Very much still there and confirmed by Admiral Hari Kumar in an interview to Nitin Gokhale a few months back. But Project 76 can only start, once Project 75I is well underway.

The irony of the offer from Navantia of Spain, is that the S80 Class is a modified version of the Scorpene Class SSK, the very same boat that is in service with the Indian Navy. It would be tragic - from a perspective of "no lessons learnt" in the Kalvari Class program - if the Indian Navy selected the S80 Class submarine over the Type 214/216 offer from HDW of Germany.

The Spanish Navy has a grand total of *ONE* S80 Class submarine and she (the Isaac Peral) just entered service. Navantia is so confident of the design of the S80 Class that they have offered the design to India, Sweden (lost), Philippines, Poland and Turkey. We are negotiating with with Naval Group of France for three more Scorpenes (which is also modified and has greater Indian kit on board, with the DRDO AIP being a key component).

Why can't the Indian Navy do away with this asinine contest and continue with the Scorpene build? Do six more boats (instead of the three) under a Project 75A program. Then instead of Project 76, do a follow on Project 75B program (another six boats). And so on. Each succeeding class will have a greater level of Indian content, with the end goal being a fully indigenized boat. We are doing it right now with the Delhi Class (Project 15), then Kolkata Class (Project 15A), then Visakhapatnam Class (Project 15B), etc.

What do the Spanish have - that they can sell a modified Scorpene - that India does not have with the Kalvari Class? Rhetorical question onlee. No long term vision when partnering with a foreign OEM. Everything is done in an ad hoc and comedian manner.

From a build perspective and learning curve however, the S80 Class would be a shoe-in for the Indian Navy. The problem is that the workforce that built the Kalvari Class boats is at MDL and Navantia has partnered with L&T for the S80 Class. So a similar lengthy learning curve (which will cause delays), for an entirely new workforce that has to be trained.

If one wants to learn on how *NOT* to purchase submarines, the Govt of India, the Ministry of Defence, the PSUs (i.e. MDL), the private sector (L&T) and the Indian Navy is ever willing to teach :)
Prem Kumar wrote: 28 Feb 2024 23:10CNS said our Navy will be 100% Atmanirbhar by 2047. How will it happen if we cannot make our own SSKs and SSNs? Coming to think of it, we don't have our own P8Is either

Or is the definition of Atmanirbhar like how Adani "Atmanirbhars" Hermes UAV?
Bingo!

See this ---> viewtopic.php?p=2614340#p2614340

Full Atmanirbhar Bharat by 2047...yeah right!
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by srai »

^^^
India had the submarine tech with Type-209 back in 1986. That was almost 40-years ago!

Yet … still searching for a hand to hold onto
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

srai wrote: 29 Feb 2024 01:54 ^^^
India had the submarine tech with Type-209 back in 1986. That was almost 40-years ago!

Yet … still searching for a hand to hold onto
When Hanwha Ocean and Hyundai Heavy Industries were still in the Project 75I contest (they have now withdrawn from it), they had offered the DSME-3000 submarine. This is the export variant of the KSS-III boat that is in service with the South Korean Navy. The predecessor to the KSS-III boat was the Son Won-Il Class (which was a license built U214 boat from HDW of Germany). The South Koreans learnt valuable lessons from the Son Won-Il Class and produced an updated design, which is the KSS-III. They are now selling an export variant of that to the world. Latest News ---> viewtopic.php?p=2614535#p2614535

We built two HDW 209, Type 1500 boats in India. What did we learn? Nothing.

We then built six Scorpenes in India. What did we learn? Again Nothing.

We are negotiating with Naval Group of France to build three more Scorpenes with DRDO AIP and greater level of Indian kit. Will we learn anything?
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

https://x.com/AdithyaKM_/status/1764486 ... 44414?s=20 ---> "The first group of Indian naval officers will be visiting Germany to evaluate the boats, which offer AIP in the next 10 days. We have put a good offer on the table and are ready to fine tune it further. The German government is very supportive of the TKMS proposal with MDL."

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by R Charan »

India Eyes Advanced German Submarines: Focus on Stealth and Air-Independent Propulsion
https://defence.in/threads/india-eyes-a ... sion.4366/
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by drnayar »

Rakesh wrote: 04 Mar 2024 20:01When Hanwha Ocean and Hyundai Heavy Industries were still in the Project 75I contest (they have now withdrawn from it), they had offered the DSME-3000 submarine. This is the export variant of the KSS-III boat that is in service with the South Korean Navy. The predecessor to the KSS-III boat was the Son Won-Il Class (which was a license built U214 boat from HDW of Germany). The South Koreans learnt valuable lessons from the Son Won-Il Class and produced an updated design, which is the KSS-III. They are now selling an export variant of that to the world. Latest News ---> viewtopic.php?p=2614535#p2614535

We built two HDW 209, Type 1500 boats in India. What did we learn? Nothing.

We then built six Scorpenes in India. What did we learn? Again Nothing.

We are negotiating with Naval Group of France to build three more Scorpenes with DRDO AIP and greater level of Indian kit. Will we learn anything?
Admiral.. the convenient leaks of classified material of the last HDWs in South Africa. Scorpenes in Australia are significant .. the navy did admit it compromises the utility of these subs.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by ernest »

drnayar wrote: 10 Mar 2024 15:57 Admiral.. the convenient leaks of classified material of the last HDWs in South Africa. Scorpenes in Australia are significant .. the navy did admit it compromises the utility of these subs.
The one lesson is that we shouldn't rely on foreign sources, when just a leak can have huge impact on combat effectiveness. Go swadeshi or go home.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

drnayar wrote: 10 Mar 2024 15:57Admiral.. the convenient leaks of classified material of the last HDWs in South Africa. Scorpenes in Australia are significant .. the navy did admit it compromises the utility of these subs.
Below is what Vice Admiral AK Singh (retd) had to say about the Scorpene leak;

Indian Navy probes leaked data of Scorpene subs
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 341_1.html
24 Aug 2016
Vice Admiral (Retired) Arun Kumar Singh, an Indian Navy submarine veteran, explains that much of the information in the 22,400 leaked pages would be commercial information relating to the Scorpene’s operating characteristics, that DCNS would legitimately share with any navy that expressed interest in buying the Scorpene. “An operational disaster, however, would be the leakage of information relating to the sound that the Scorpene radiates into the water; or revealing the maximum depth to which the vessel can dive and fire weapons from,” says Singh.

A submarine’s “audio signature” is like a fingerprint. It is unique, and allows sensors like those in maritime reconnaissance aircraft to identify individual submarines, from a bank of “signatures” that navies maintain. INS Kalvari has not yet done its “noise ranging trials”, which would pinpoint its audio fingerprint. Until these trials are completed, there is little possibility of it falling into the wrong hands. Scorpene submarines are operated by Malaysia and Chile, while Brazil will also operate them from 2018. The Indian Scorpene is slightly longer, which would make its audio and magnetic signatures marginally different.
If the Scorpene boat was that compromised, would the Indian Navy honestly go in for three more of the same? They are negotiating with Naval Group of France for three more Scorpene boats and that too at a unit cost higher than the first six boats. If the Scorpene boat was that compromised, would DRDO be retro fitting their AIP system onto these boats? If the Scorpene boat was that compromised, would the MoD be holding an open contest for 100+ modern torpedoes to be acquired for the Scorpene fleet, with half being torpedoes of foreign origin and the other half being from NSTL of DRDO?

The Scorpene boats are not cheap to acquire by any stretch of the imagination. See below. Break down the unit cost :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalvari-c ... ine_(2015)
India's Ministry of Defence (MoD) ordered an introductory batch of six submarines in 2005, at an initially-estimated cost of ₹13,000 crore (equivalent to ₹440 billion or US$5.5 billion in 2023); of the ordered six, five are currently in operational service. In addition to the first batch, a proposal for the purchase of three more submarines was approved in 2023, at an estimated cost of ₹36,000 crore (US$4.5 billion)
And this will be peanuts compared to what the Project 75I will cost the taxpayer.

As I mentioned earlier, the irony of the Navantia offer is that the S80 Plus submarine is a modified Scorpene Class submarine. She weighs 1,350 tons (submerged) more than a Kalvari Class. She is therefore significantly heavier and larger i.e. ocean going and power projection. But Navantia has never built a Scorpene Class boat before the S80 Plus submarine. Prior to the S80 Plus (known as the Isaac Peral Class in the Spanish Navy), they operated the Galerna Class - which is the Agosta Class submarine - from then DCNS (now Naval Group) of France.

So Navantia got the crown jewels from Naval Group, without purchasing a SINGLE Scorpene Class boat. They are so confident of the design that they got from Naval Group, that they are offering it to any nation that has money to purchase them. Navantia is offsetting the investment they made for the Isaac Peral Class, by selling the design to other nations. We built six Scorpene boats + negotiating for three more Scorpene boats, but are still holding a contest to build a new generation submarine. And one of the two boats in the P-75I contest, is a modified Scorpene Class boat! :roll:

But it is an open secret that the Indian Navy wants the HDW boat i.e. a modified and heavier variant of the Type 214. Mazagon Dock Ltd (which HDW has partnered with) will win the P-75I contest. Navantia is present, just to avoid a single vendor situation. But imagine how angry and despondent Naval HQ would be, if Navantia actually won? We will be building a modified Scorpene boat.

Would it not make better sense to partner with the OEM we are working with RIGHT NOW i.e. Naval Group and with the Scorpene boat we are building RIGHT NOW @ MDL? Instead of three (larger & modified) Scorpenes, build six of them. Then follow up with Project 76 to build another six boats (with a follow on six more).

Can we not negotiate and partner with Naval Group, just as Navantia has? Or are we really that dumb when it comes to the art of negotiating and working with foreign OEMs? Equally important, are we really that naïve to believe that HDW (or even Navantia) will be more willing to share technology that Naval Group is reluctant to provide? Apparently we really must be, because the P-75I contest is alive and well.

But will we learn anything from the Project 75I tamasha? Doubtful. Then we will launch Project 75I-A, for another six phoren submarines. And at that time, we will claim...this will be the final acquisition and we will get full 100% ToT. Rinse & Repeat. Atmanirbhar Bharat!
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

Tweeted out on March 08th. The tweet came out in relation to how the SP model has not worked out for AMCA.

https://x.com/alpha_defense/status/1766 ... 50163?s=20 ---> It is now time to acknowledge strategic partnership model for P-75I isn’t working as well. Probably MDL should bite the bullet and go for indigenous submarine design for 12 Indian submarines.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Pratyush »

Will ditching the SPM reduce the timeline for the entry into service of the next gen SSK?
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by nachiket »

How are we still considering the S80 for this deal? This is the same design which was found to be overweight by 100 tons after 10 years having been spent by Navantia to design it. Then they had to take the help of General Dynamics to fix this and the "solution" was to make it longer and increase displacement by 100 tons. The original problem was reported in 2013 and it took another 9 years before the first sub went into sea trials. This thing should not be touched with a hundred foot pole.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by Rakesh »

The Indian Navy will end up with a variant of the Type 214. All indications point to that.

But that is not stopping Navantia from going to town, claiming that they are the cheaper offer in the P-75I contest. But technical trials have yet to begin and that is where HDW will outshine Navantia.
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by nachiket »

Rakesh wrote: 11 Mar 2024 17:43 The Indian Navy will end up with a variant of the Type 214. All indications point to that.

But that is not stopping Navantia from going to town, claiming that they are the cheaper offer in the P-75I contest. But technical trials have yet to begin and that is where HDW will outshine Navantia.
If the S80 does not clear technical evaluations then it will become a single vendor situation and the tender will have to be cancelled wouldn't it?
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Post by srin »

Rakesh wrote: 11 Mar 2024 17:43 The Indian Navy will end up with a variant of the Type 214. All indications point to that.

But that is not stopping Navantia from going to town, claiming that they are the cheaper offer in the P-75I contest. But technical trials have yet to begin and that is where HDW will outshine Navantia.
I don't think so. The Germans have this "human rights" bee that drones too much, are quite close to the cheens and are politically unreliable. Like we can't afford to buy American fighters (due to sanctions etc), we can't afford frontline warships from German either.

My guess is that this will end up like the MMRCA. We'll order more Scorpenes (and use this to negotiate more "TOT") after the babus faint when the see the price quote for P75I.
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