PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

[panduranghari]

It will not hurt India that one of its main assets propelling it forward is youth: India’s median age is 27, compared with China’s 37. Unless China’s recent lifting of its one-child policy has a dramatic effect, by 2030 India’s population will exceed China’s, with an additional 300 million included in its labor force. By that time, no matter how fast China is able to sprint, as long as India adopts a slower yet steadier pace, coupled with continual enhancement of the talent of its people through greater investment in the entire population’s education, it will likely win.

---------------------------------
if population is the critical factor, China would have been dominating US and any other country on earth for the last 200 years.

According to Flexible Indeterminate Factor-based Asset Allocation, which the Chinese follow, the PBoC uses Global Equities, U.S. Treasuries, Credit Spreads, Inflation Protection, Currency Protection, Liquidity and Volatility to determine the future of their economic growth.

However at the basic level only 2 factors depend on the GDP growth, Hours worked and Productivity.
GDP=Hours worked + Productivity.

As we can more or less assume people work the same hours one year to the next, the size of the population is the more or less a reasonable proxy for the hours worked.
GDP= Workforce+Productivity

So if Chinese workforce is guaranteed to fall by 2030 to half of what it currently is, unless China attracts (educated, skilled) immigrants in large numbers, they(you) are in trouble. This is not a problem for India at least until 2050 when the expectation is the population growth will stop and reverse.

With respect for IPR, a free society and right policies going forward here on, we are going to be alright. We have a better chance of attracting the right kind of immigrant than you do, at least based on the current political situation. You worry about your central planned economy. The problems are too many to enumerate. But you will live them, if you are young enough.

[Singha]

http://www.firstpost.com/business/fake- ... 93188.html
In a big setback to China's e-commerce giants like Alibaba, an official report submitted to the Chinese lawmakers said only 58.7 percent of items in online trades were genuine or of good quality last year with the remaining 40 percent shoddy or counterfeit.
AFPAFP
According to the report on implementation of the Law on the Protection of the Rights and Interests of Consumers, Commerce authorities across the country received 77,800 complaints last year concerning online orders, a staggering increase of 356.6 percent.
The report, heard at a plenary meeting of the NPC Standing Committee presided over by top legislator Zhang Dejiang, urged tightened management on online trade, state-run Xinhua news agency said.
The report said China has overtaken the US as the world's largest online retail market with $442 billion compared to the US' nearly $300 billion last year. While turnover of the country's online retail increased by 40 percent annually to 2.8 trillion yuan ($442 billion) last year, the manufacture and sale of shoddy or counterfeit goods has become a key concern in the sector, the report cited the Ministry of Commerce as saying.
The Internet has become a critical element of China's economic progress in the past five years, accounting for 7 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), a percentage point higher than the US, China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC) said.
The report on Law on the Protection of the Rights and Interests of Consumers urged accelerated legislation in e-commerce, improved supervision and clarification of consumers' rights and sellers' responsibilities.
The decision by the Chinese government to publicise the report in a rare move came amid rising discontent over increasing supply of fake goods through online retail, raising questions over credibility of the online e-commerce giants like Alibaba which has emerged as e-commerce giant world wide becoming one China's iconic companies in recent years.
Alibaba founder Jack Ma has been reiterating that his company has focused a lot on the scrutiny of its suppliers but complaints continued to mount. According to CNNIC, there are so far 328 listed Internet companies in China, which account for 25.6 percent of the nation's market capitalisation. Four of them have made their way to the top 10 world Internet companies, including Alibaba.
The number of online shoppers climbed to 361 million, representing 55.7 percent of the nation's shoppers last year. Online shopping represents 20 percent of all consumer demand, the report said. For the first time mobile phones have become the most commonly-used platform to access the Internet, followed by computers.
PTI

[vina]

Railways. Steam Engine. Is this North Korea ? Maybe Laos/Cambodia ? Or is it Vietnam ?

[vina]

Uh oh ! China's VW moment. Admits that it burns much much more coal than previously reported. How much more ? More than the energy consumption of all of Germany. Something like 600MILLION tons more ! Now India's consumption is around 600M tons. So, that is close to a billion tons of emissions unaccounted for!

And look at the figures. CHina's coal consumption is something like 4.2 BILLION tons. And the economic output it gets for this kind of profligacy is very small. It looks and sound like a terribly wasteful economy and simply unsustainable.

China Burns More Coal Than Reported

[kmkraoind]

In China's coal country, 100,000 lose their jobs

“We’re ordinary people, and now we can no longer get by," she said through tears. "You have to allow us to live! Where are you gonna put us? The government is cracking down on corruption, but it’s all for nothing! The rich get richer, and the rest of us lose our jobs and can’t survive.”

If pent up anger builds up, either it will lead to another bloody revolution or breaking of China into multiple kingdoms.

[Austin]

China Aims for 6.5% Economic Growth Over Next 5 Years, Xi Says

BEIJING — President Xi Jinping of China announced on Tuesday that the Communist Party and the national government had set a 6.5 percent target for annual economic growth from 2016 to 2020.

The announcement was an apparent attempt to temper expectations that China’s slowing economy will rebound to anything near the double-digit growth of recent decades. The party also released the broad outlines of proposals for its next five-year plan. That blueprint of its economic development was discussed at a recent party plenary session in Beijing and is expected to be completed next spring by the National People’s Congress, a legislature that grants pro forma approval to party policy.

In declaring the target of 6.5 percent, Mr. Xi was reiterating a figure that Prime Minister Li Keqiang had used in a speech on Sunday in South Korea. The leaders say the target must be met for China’s gross domestic product and per capita income in 2020 to be double what they were in 2010.

“China aims to narrow the income gap and raise the proportion of the middle-class income population in the next five years,” according to a report by Xinhua, the state news agency, on the proposals for the next five-year plan, which will be the 13th in the party’s history.

China’s gross domestic product per capita is about $7,800, the Xinhua report said, citing figures released on Tuesday. With nearly 1.4 billion people, China is the world’s most populous country. The current development plan, which runs from 2011 to the end of this year, set an annual growth target of about 7 percent.

The party said the proposals for the new plan aimed to, among other things, eradicate rural poverty (an “arduous task”); promote inclusion of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of currencies; and attract foreign investment while encouraging more Chinese businesses to invest overseas. The party also said that China would set up a Green Development Fund to promote clean industry and sustainable growth.

The proposals emphasized the need to strengthen conservative party ideology in public realms, an important goal under Mr. Xi. For example, they called for cultivating a positive culture on the Internet and cleansing the online environment. At the same time, the plan said China wanted to improve Internet speeds — a task seemingly incompatible, at least on a global level, with the country’s Great Firewall system of web censorship.

The proposals were approved after about 200 full members of the party’s Central Committee held a meeting for four days last month in a heavily guarded hotel in western Beijing. Last Thursday, during the session, the party announced that it was changing its one-child policy of family planning to a two-child policy in an attempt to stimulate economic growth.

The new policy is also expected to be approved by the National People’s Congress next spring and will go into effect afterward, although economists and demographers say they do not expect a big spike in the national birthrate.

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On Tuesday, some critics expressed skepticism about whether any five-year plan could address the evolving complexity of China.

“Rarely do people compare the plan and the eventual reality,” said Mao Yushi, chairman of the Unirule Institute of Economics in Beijing. “Not one five-year plan has unfolded as planned. Why? Because you can’t predict the problems five years from now.”

The Chinese economy grew 6.9 percent in the third quarter, relative to a year earlier, according to data released in October. That figure, while robust compared with those of advanced economies, was the slowest for China since the global financial crisis of 2009, and some economists say the economy is actually much weaker.

Mr. Xi and Mr. Li have said they want to shift China away from heavy industry and high investment toward a larger service sector and more consumer spending. But recent economic shakiness has fed doubts about whether they can smoothly manage that transition.

The annual plenary sessions of the Central Committee are part of the ritualized cycle of Chinese politics, giving top leaders a platform to win elite endorsement for their policies and to settle disagreements. Most famously, a plenum in late 1978 sealed Deng Xiaoping’s re-emergence as a dominant leader and opened the way to market overhauls that transformed the economy over the next decade.

Before the latest meeting, party propaganda depicted Mr. Xi, who is also the general secretary of the party, as a visionary in the mold of Deng.

“It is consistent with the broader trend of the C.C.P. general secretary acting as the ‘chairman of everything’ and ensuring his personal stamp is on every policy,” said Scott Kennedy, a researcher on Chinese economic policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington who has followed the drafting of the new five-year plan.

Although China has shed many of the top-down economic controls of the Maoist era, the five-year plan still plays an important role, Mr. Kennedy said. After the National People’s Congress endorses the plan next spring, ministries and agencies will issue more detailed strategies for making changes regarding energy, the environment, trade and other areas.

“The plan serves as the most authoritative statement on the state’s priorities,” Mr. Kennedy said. “The party, government agencies, financial institutions and companies then spend a great deal of effort aligning themselves with these priorities.”

[ashi]

Hey, mod (guess it is suraj), you deleted my post and called me stupid because of what? Because of I said there is not shortage of separatist groups in india? have been in this forum for the last 15 years, finally loss interests of posting here. But let me leave with a bang, so Fxxk you, mod (suraj). LoL ....

[kmkraoind]

Hey, mod (guess it is suraj), you deleted my post and called me stupid because of what? Because of I said there is not shortage of separatist groups in india? have been in this forum for the last 15 years, finally loss interests of posting here. But let me leave with a bang, so Fxxk you, mod (suraj). LoL ....

Nice manners.

[Suraj]

Hey, mod (guess it is suraj), you deleted my post and called me stupid because of what? Because of I said there is not shortage of separatist groups in india? have been in this forum for the last 15 years, finally loss interests of posting here. But let me leave with a bang, so Fxxk you, mod (suraj). LoL ....

I don't know what post you're talking about because I haven't looked at this thread in days, nor have I called anyone names. Nevertheless, bye. You won't be missed.

[amit]

Oh Suraj,

Ashi is very much around, BRF is his beat after all. It's just he's now going by a new moniker. You should check out the chain of posts in the previous page, where expecting a ban, he said that there would be other Chinese posters around. On cue two posts below poster Zengerl who seems to have been a sleeping member since 2009 makes an appearance. I guess Ashi was kinda surprised that could still log on with that moniker and he wasn't banned! This was his shout - a version of Han Pakiness I guess - to get noticed and force you to do the needful! I wonder if a ban entitles him to a bonus?

The funny thing is the posting style is similar as is the language. And they both seem to take offence from the same things. I must say the 50-centers* make this thread worthwhile to visit.



* OK I must confess I got a tubelight moment as to why the 50-centers feel so aggrieved when we call them 50 centers. They are mad that we don't realise that as part of the world's second biggest ekhonomy's propaganda machine, they get paid much more than 50 cents per post!

[Zynda]

Comac C929 :China And Russia Join Forces To Build New Jumbo Jet - A challenger appears

China and Russia are taking their high tech relationship to the next level, as the preliminary design for their jumbo jet will be completed by July. The C929 will be China's ever largest civilian aircraft, and Russia's largest post-Cold War jetliner.

The United Aircraft Corporation (UAV) and China's COMAC civilian aviation firm have been collaborating since early 2014 to build a wide body jetliner capable of seating 250 to 280 passengers in a 3-class configuration, with a range of 12,000km. While this aircraft has not yet been named, its Chinese designation is likely to be C929 (COMAC's 190 passenger C919 is currently China's largest civil aircraft project).

Russia has high hopes for the C929, as evidenced by the string of Russian defense and industry ministers praising the jet to the press. UAC President Yuri Slyusar said that the C929 will cost $13 billion to develop, with a first flight between 2021 and 2022. Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov says that Chinese and Russian engineers will develop the prototype blueprints between 2016 and 2018, with a service entry date of 2025. Slyusar notes that UAC will build the composite wing and tail of the C929, while China will handle fuselage construction. To reduce costs and improve reliability, the initial C929 is likely to use Western engines from Pratt & Whitney, General Electric or Rolls Royce, though Russia's United Engine Corporation hopes to power some C929 by 2030. Chinese technologies would likely include the use of advanced manufacturing techniques like 3D printing, not to mention funding.

The C929's basic 290 passenger capacity suggests that it would have a maximum takeoff weight of about 250 tons, about the same size as the Boeing 787 or Airbus 350. On the civilian side, initial C929s may not be technologically advanced as their Western counterparts, but they would provide a lower cost alternative for airlines around the world. Likewise, a militarized C929 would be a welcome addition to China's military aviation. A C929 in PLAAF service could serve as a refueling tanker (the similarly sized A330 MRTT is already in Australian, British, Saudi and Singaporean service) for Chinese bombers and stealth fighters. The C929 would also be more fuel efficient than Y-20 and Il-76 cargo planes, making it a longer ranged aerial command center for Chinese air operations, as well as serving as an "Air Force One" for Chinese leaders, in addition to being an airborne nuclear command post.

C929 looks like a love child between B787 & A350. A350 in its current avatar has a range close to 15,000 Kms (against 12,000 Kms target range of C929 in 2025). Nevertheless an ambitious target for China whose narrow body effort is yet to take flight. I would think they would want to get the C919 Mk.2 (or whatever it will be designated) design refined before attempting a wide body but hey, Chinese can afford to throw money. Plus collab with Russians is a good thing since they can bring in their long range exp from products like Il-96. Good for Chinese engineers...

[Picklu]

^^ how much coal does it carry as fuel?

[A_Gupta]

China Burns More Coal Than Reported

"Illustrating the scale of the revision, the new figures add about 600 million tons to China’s coal consumption in 2012 — an amount equivalent to more than 70 percent of the total coal used annually by the United States."


http://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/
"The average price of U.S. coal exports during the second quarter 2015 was $80.14 per short ton."

So, 600 million tons of coal ~ USD $48 billion - is this an understatement of Chinese GDP or overstatement?

[A_Gupta]

Just what on earth is China doing with so much coal?
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/ ... e-guardian
"Chinese miners last year dug up 3.87bn tonnes of coal, more than enough to keep all four of the next largest users—the United States, India, the European Union and Russia—supplied for a year."

[Austin]

China leadership plans to make yuan freely traded by 2020

China’s ruling Communist Party said Tuesday it plans to make the country’s tightly controlled currency, the yuan, freely traded by 2020, AP reported. The party said its leaders agreed at a meeting last week to make the yuan a “freely tradable and freely usable currency” by the end of its latest five-year development plan in 2020. The plan envisages switch to a “negative list” in foreign exchange regulation, which would allow companies to do whatever is not explicitly prohibited.

[TSJones]

I think China uses coal differently than say, the US.

In the US coal is used primarily in giant electrical generating plants with a much smaller use for industrial activities such as steel making. In fact, the over all consumption of coal in the US is rapidly dropping.



In China, the use of coal is probably far more widespread, not only for electricity generation but all kinds of small industrial uses including on site steam generation, steel mills, etc. The Chinese probably also use it for for home heating in stoves and furnaces. In other words, all aspects of their economy is heavily dependent upon the use of coal.

Where as the US is rapidly converting to natural gas with a growing emphasis on alternative power sources such as solar and wind.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ This page gives 2014 statistics for China's coal usage
http://blogs.piie.com/china/?p=4107
49% goes for electricity, 46% goes for industry (non-electric usage), 3% to households, and the rest to "Services" and other.

[Suraj]

China leadership plans to make yuan freely traded by 2020

China’s ruling Communist Party said Tuesday it plans to make the country’s tightly controlled currency, the yuan, freely traded by 2020, AP reported. The party said its leaders agreed at a meeting last week to make the yuan a “freely tradable and freely usable currency” by the end of its latest five-year development plan in 2020. The plan envisages switch to a “negative list” in foreign exchange regulation, which would allow companies to do whatever is not explicitly prohibited.

It says nothing about whether the yuan is to be made convertible on the capital account. The hurdle behind capital account convertibility is capital flight, something they're nowhere near assuring the end of, especially after the capital flight just months ago during their market crash. I'm fairly sure they'll not remove restrictions. Rather than restrict conversion, they'll simply maintain or increase restrictions on *who* can convert. That's a classic parlor trick to claim convertibility without actual convertibility - "you can convert freely. we tell you WHO can convert."

[A_Gupta]

Per this article http://www.workers.org/articles/2015/11 ... l-warming/
China generated 5523 Terawatt hours of electricity in 2014, three-quarters of it from coal.
From articles linked in previous posts this is about 49% of 3.87 billion tons of coal.

Per http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ ... =epmt_1_01
The US generated 1585.7 terawatt hours of coal electric power in 2014, using 854.4 million tons ( http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf )

It would seem Chinese coal power generation is quite efficient, I get 2.18 TwH/million tons of coal in China compared to 1.86 TwH/million tons of coal in the US!

(Assuming my arithmetic is correct). Using US efficiency would mean China consumes 330 million tons of coal more.

[TSJones]

Their electrical power plants are prolly newer and more efficient.

The US is trying to divest its old coal power plants

here is a propaganda piece from the US coal industry....

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/a ... ding-them/

[A_Gupta]

Hmm, it is complicated. Old Chinese plants are less efficient than the US, new ones are much better. As of 2009, per the NYT, the US average was better.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/11/world ... .html?_r=1&

Even among China’s newly built plants, not all are modern. Only about 60 percent of the new plants are being built using newer technology that is highly efficient, but more expensive.

With greater efficiency, a power plant burns less coal and emits less carbon dioxide for each unit of electricity it generates. Experts say the least efficient plants in China today convert 27 to 36 percent of the energy in coal into electricity. The most efficient plants achieve an efficiency as high as 44 percent, meaning they can cut global warming emissions by more than a third compared with the weakest plants.

In the United States, the most efficient plants achieve around 40 percent efficiency, because they do not use the highest steam temperatures being adopted in China. The average efficiency of American coal-fired plants is still higher than the average efficiency of Chinese power plants, because China built so many inefficient plants over the past decade.

Another problem is that China has finally developed the ability to build high-technology power plants only at the end of a national binge of building lower-tech coal-fired plants. Construction is now slowing because of the economic slump {global financial crisis}

[Singha]

their massive steel production probably uses coal for captive power plants to drive the electric furnaces? where else would you need so much coal in industry?

[amit]

The point to note is that China has built up its economy in the same resource intensive mode which the West used in the later part of the last century to develop. There was a time in the 1980s-1990s when the US accounted for more than 60 per cent of the world's energy consumption despite having a small fraction of the total global population. The US and Europe are now in their post-industrial age period where they are trying to close down inefficiencies by either transferring polluting manufacturing to China and the rest of Asia or by closing down old coal power plants etc.

The Chinese will have a hard time downsizing this waste while at the same time maintaining a 6+ growth rate. It would be interesting to see how this plays out.

[amit]

Comac C929 :China And Russia Join Forces To Build New Jumbo Jet - A challenger appears

Did anyone else notice what a poorly photoshopped image this is?

[Satya_anveshi]

China's First Home-made Big Passenger Plane Rolled off Line
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CttNql_xWG4

[Austin]

It says nothing about whether the yuan is to be made convertible on the capital account. The hurdle behind capital account convertibility is capital flight, something they're nowhere near assuring the end of, especially after the capital flight just months ago during their market crash. I'm fairly sure they'll not remove restrictions. Rather than restrict conversion, they'll simply maintain or increase restrictions on *who* can convert. That's a classic parlor trick to claim convertibility without actual convertibility - "you can convert freely. we tell you WHO can convert."

Capital flight is part of any capital account convertible currency , Money can go out easily and money can come in easily as well.

What I think might happen is once IMF accepts Yuan as part of its basket of currency . think they would do is gradually devaluate Yuan and then make it fully free floating and fully capital account convertible something similar to Russian approach.

This would help them devaluate the currency without much complain as market force will determine the rate of Yuan versus other currency and help their export be competitive.

I doubt Yuan would be stronger once they make it free floating versus Euro/USD.

[Suraj]

Capital flight is part of any capital account convertible currency , Money can go out easily and money can come in easily as well.

Sorry, your argument does not convince me that their twin imperatives - keep a check on a decades long capital flight problem, and capital account convertibility - are mutually workable. They desire the latter for their reserve currency goal, but my contention remains that they cannot and will not actually implement it in reality; right now they say 'you can't convert on the capital account'. Their subsequent opening up will mean 'you can freely convert if you get our permission, which we can revoke at any time for any reason'. They don't have the institutional checks and balances to do it any other way.

[Austin]

Sorry, your argument does not convince me that their twin imperatives - keep a check on a decades long capital flight problem, and capital account convertibility - are mutually workable. They desire the latter for their reserve currency goal, but my contention remains that they cannot and will not actually implement it in reality; right now they say 'you can't convert on the capital account'. Their subsequent opening up will mean 'you can freely convert if you get our permission, which we can revoke at any time for any reason'. They don't have the institutional checks and balances to do it any other way.

I can only look at the experience of Russia regarding Capital Account Convertibility, They have Rouble as capital accunt convertible currency since 2006 , iirc those days rouble was 28 to USD it was dirty pegged to USD/Euro , in 2008 financial crisis they burnt around $170 billion USD defending the Rouble and since then Rouble moved to a corrider ( 33-35 to USD ) where CBR kept it floating between some USD/Euro Rate generally a upper and lower limit of ~ 5 dollar/euro where it was allowed to float beyond that the CBR would defend it , Last year when Rouble was allowed to fully float during 2014 crisis they removed the corridor and it was freely allowed to float without CBR intervention. Today Rouble floats ( 62-63 to USD )depending on how the Oil prices move and CB does not defend it and yet they have full capital account convertibility.


Coming back to china , I see no reason why they wont move to Dirty Peg/Corridor concept or make it fully floating and yet have full capital account convertibility , Their CB might have to defend yuan in a corridor or just let it float , the down side it they will have to deal with inflow/outflows without capital control and might have to devaluate their currency but then who know Yuan might become stronger to USD if its allowed to fully float

Chinese CB might have their own plans and might do it differently , I am sure if they says 2020 they might have some plan to make it convertible and may be capital account convertible

[Suraj]

To me, the Russian experience means nothing as far as China goes. If anything, recent experience shows that China has repeatedly treated Russian moves as a 'what not to do' learning experience. For example, they learned from USSR's experience with giving political freedoms that led to its spectacular implosion, and have resolutely refused to cede any such freedoms to their own people.

It has already cost PBoC ~$400 billion to maintain their dirty peg through the recent market meltdown despite no CAC. There's very little to suggest they'll implement CAC in its true sense on the back of such experience. Sure they will 'do it somehow' - that precisely what I said they'll do - if they do move for CAC, they'll announce CAC simultaneously with restrictions on who can convert.

[Austin]

^^ I think they would do the capital account convertible thing as they as they have very large reserve currency to defend the Yuan if they want to , they can ofcourse gradually free float it without the need to spend massive forex to defend it at the risk of devaluating their currency , Russia has shown it can be done sucessfully on free float if you can take a hit of massive devaluation , The Chinese might find their own route , Time will tell.

I think a lot will depend on how the global economy shapes up in next 5-6 years , specially with the QE bubble , 80 plus months of ZIRP and the impending interest rate hike and the unknown consequences of it for global financial system

[Austin]

Renminbi series - PBoC’s top agenda – reforms, reforms, reforms

http://www.econotimes.com/Renminbi-seri ... rms-112277

Those who are counting on Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) to take steps to boost growth, should think again. Though making the economy turn is vital, PBoC is likely to pursue another agenda for the time being - its reforms.

While reforms are likely to support growth in long term and tend to be beneficial to economy, some of it may not in the very near term.

Yuan addition to International Monetary fund's (IMF), special drawing rights (SDR) basket has become Chinese government's top priority at the moment and with support of Germany, France and especially UK along with conditional support of US, it is most likely than not that Yuan will reserve its place in IMF's SDR basket. Formal inclusion will be done by end 2016......time given to China and PBoC to reform Yuan such that it meets the IMF requirement.

There are two key criteria for IMF's inclusion of Yuan in the basket......one that the currency to be important for trade around the world and second is that it is freely accessible.

First one has not been much of an issue......given China is world's largest exporter and biggest importer of commodities but the second one...Yuan is still quite far from that.

So PBoC's top most priority for this year and next would be to reform Yuan and to make it accessible. Process has already began and it is likely to intensify.....whether market likes it or not.

Anyone counting on August turmoil scenario to make PBoC - a slow moving wagon train.....would be proven very wrong.

Some of the key reforms taken up so far -

PBoC allowed foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds and international financial institute to access onshore bond market on a registration basis.

Reform China's Renminbi fix regime - under new rule daily fix will take into account closing spot market as well as movements in other currencies.

PBoC allowed foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds and international financial institute to access onshore FX market on a registration basis.

PBoC allowed domestic issuers and investors in Shanghai free trade zone to access foreign assets or to say freely convert Yuan (a pilot project).

Ministry of finance will be issuing 3 month treasury bills on weekly basis to improve liquidity.

PBoC adopted MF's SDSS reporting standard.

[A_Gupta]

http://qz.com/530096/china-data-tricks/
"The most egregious examples from the Chinese government’s long, sordid history of data-doctoring
Gwynn Guilford
October 29, 2015"

[A_Gupta]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ly-growing
" Six Ways to Gauge How Fast China's Economy Is Actually Growing
There are many ways to analyze China's GDP, and all the ones presented here show it trending below the government's official statistics for the third quarter. "

[Singha]

on paper there are 500 booked orders for the C919.

this will be used to mercilessly cajole and beat airbus and boeing to transfer as much technology and production to the mainland as possible to get sourcing and tax benefits for china sales and retain some skin in the game.

with the Leap engine in C919 I dont see any great advantage for airbus and boeing in fuel economy dept. the core avionics are also mostly western sourced like honeywell, so will have similar uptime.

this could be the seed of a massive commercial aerospace industry in china as parts are increasingly localized in phases, which indeed is the plan.

the one most threatened is probably Embraer.

[Austin]

on paper there are 500 booked orders for the C919.

this will be used to mercilessly cajole and beat airbus and boeing to transfer as much technology and production to the mainland as possible to get sourcing and tax benefits for china sales and retain some skin in the game.

with the Leap engine in C919 I dont see any great advantage for airbus and boeing in fuel economy dept. the core avionics are also mostly western sourced like honeywell, so will have similar uptime.

this could be the seed of a massive commercial aerospace industry in china as parts are increasingly localized in phases, which indeed is the plan.

the one most threatened is probably Embraer.

C919 is a good project from Chinese POV its offers the same fuel economy rate as Boeing 737MAX and A320 NEO , its a new design as well , if china can complete flight test program and ceritfy it on time then from Chinese POV its a great achievement for a country that has never built a 737 class to catch up with biggies in one shot is good.

Technically the Russian MS-21 is a much better project than any other in single aisle market compared to MAX and NEO offers 7-8 % fuel advantage and slightly larger cabin size so far has decent order of 175 confirm order and larger soft order ...thats purely technical comparision

[Zynda]

this will be used to mercilessly cajole and beat airbus and boeing to transfer as much technology and production to the mainland as possible to get sourcing and tax benefits for china sales and retain some skin in the game.

the one most threatened is probably Embraer.

Already happened sir. I believe Airbus is opening a 2nd assembly plant in China and Boeing has announced a Chinese plant where part of 737 will be assembled. All the above in spite of notorious reputation of blatant IP violations by Chinese.

In fact Chinese were very much interested in investing/taking share of the beleaguered C Series by Bombardier. Apparently Quebec Govt stepped in and said that Bombardier is a strategic asset for Canada and wouldn't want a "foreign govt" owned entity having a stake in it. Quebec Govt ended up investing huge sums to keep C-Series afloat (for now).

The C919 is indeed a massively huge step forward for Chinese aerospace efforts but in aerospace reverse engineering only yields so much before the real development activity needs to step in to produce a competitive product.

Chinese have stated that their aim is to break the duopoly of Airbus & Boeing in larger narrow body & wide body market. They are not even focussing their attention on 100 seater sector which is over crowded.

[Singha]

there would be big gains from the associated parts suppliers and machinists setting up shop locally to serve the C919 and its future offshoots.

[Austin]

there would be big gains from the associated parts suppliers and machinists setting up shop locally to serve the C919 and its future offshoots.

Yes and you should remember that China is already building A320 under lic prod for long time , So they would have a lot of this in place for some time.

[Singha]

china is doing some final assembly work on the A320 in tianjin. i think the aircraft parts all arrive pre built in sections.
they are trying to get airbus to do more.

even the wing design and manufacture is a billion dollar commerical IP.

[Austin]

China's stock surge as state support reverses market slide

https://www.rt.com/business/321033-chin ... investors/