Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

[bala]

Geopolitical Strategist on China's Upcoming Collapse

Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist, has a perspective on China's collapse. The demographic profile of China is a time-bomb ticking and predictions are 2030 is the imminent collapse. He is very US centric and does not realize that the collapse of China has repercussions on the US since the the US effectively mortgaged its manufacturing (at least the consumer and low end stuff) to China. Globalization is effectively being dismantled and a new norm may emerge (de-Globalization?). He mentions iPhone of Apple corp, but fails to understand that the switch from China to India has occurred. The supply chain components hasn't fully switched.

[ramana]

The problem with zealotry is it is linear.
Chian will survive.

However, use his data to do your own interpretation.

[ramana]

ricky_v read this oped also.

viewtopic.php?p=2594653#p2594653

thanks ramana sir, the ambassador considers the conflict through multiple lenses, the one that i found pertinent to the topic at hand was the first: "unstable deterrence upended by big power geopolitical conflicts is inherently escalatory".

The key words or phrases, imo, in the above take are unstable deterrence and upended. The instability-stability paradox clearly states for both parties to keep the issue from boiling over, the question for the ambassador would be: is unstable deterrence exploited constantly and in seemingly smaller measures by big geopolitical conflicts also inherently escalatory? and how does this play into the larger picture of the delta in deterrence on the number line?

This boils down to goonda or gang politics.

Yes, it is also escalatory. And there reaches a time one gang goes for the kill when they can't bear the salami bloodletting.

[NRao]

[Cyrano]

Zeihan is an impostor masquerading as an intellectual. Don't waste time listening to him.

[ricky_v]

starts innocuously enough as islamic campaigns go

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/is-pakistan- ... in-africa/

On 12 August, 2020, Islamic militants calling themselves Ansar al-Sunnah seized the coastal town of Mocímboa da Praia in northern Mozambique. It was a bloodbath. The Mozambican Army, which had repelled a similar attack just five months previously, disintegrated. Within days, the militants controlled most of northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province and swore allegiance to the Islamic State. Unable to counter the group effectively, Russia’s Wagner Group fled, their first major defeat. In March 2021, the same terrorists emerged from the bush and attacked the port city of Palma, 40 kilometers south of the Tanzanian border, besieging the Amarula Hotel where more than 100 foreign contractors working for a nearby oil concession lived or sought shelter; eyewitnesses say dozens died.

Traditionally, Muslims and Christians lived together in Cabo Delgado down to the town and village. Local traditions, animist influences, and Sufism permeated Muslim practice. Moderation was paramount. This is why literature matters. Notebooks seized from captured fighters, some of whom I met, reflected arguments, radical interpretations, and Quranic citations to sway a largely illiterate population to extremist interpretations that justified terror and the ambitions of the Islamic State.


The Rwandan Army deployed to Cabo Delgado to lead the counterinsurgency fight and help restore Mozambique’s shattered capabilities. The commander in Mocímboa showed me both captured weaponry such as AK-47s, grenades, mortars, and bazookas; electronics such as walkie-talkies, computers, and satellite phones and the literature captured Islamic State fighters carried. Literature is important because it shows the nature of radicalisation. Traditionally, Muslims and Christians lived together in Cabo Delgado down to the town and village. Local traditions, animist influences, and Sufism permeated Muslim practice. Moderation was paramount. This is why literature matters. Notebooks seized from captured fighters, some of whom I met, reflected arguments, radical interpretations, and Quranic citations to sway a largely illiterate population to extremist interpretations that justified terror and the ambitions of the Islamic State. Many of the tracts captured fighters carried originated in Karachi, Pakistan, according to publication data in the books and pamphlets.

In 1999, the United Nations established a peacekeeping mission for the DRC that, in 2010, it renamed the United Nations Organisation Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). Like many UN missions, MONUSCO is big and bloated, with an annual budget in excess of $1 billion. During conversations with me this month in Congo’s capital Kinshasa, I asked about the source of support for the ADF, especially given the traditional moderation of Congolese Muslims. Locals reported that a major engine for radicalisation among the local population is MONUSCO and particularly the Pakistani component that numbers approximately 1,700 persons.

In short, Congolese say that while the Pakistani component to MONUSCO might wear blue hats, many take it upon themselves as a personal mission to propagate and catalyze a more extreme interpretation of Islam common in Pakistan but foreign to Congo. Just as Pakistani literature emanating from Karachi’s publishing houses passively supported the Islamic State in Mozambique, Pakistan’s UN component appears much more actively even if unofficially to encourage and enable the Islamic State in Central Africa. This is not to allege a vast Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) conspiracy in the DRC. this is where i feel the writer is being willingly obtuse

Rather, it is the natural outgrowth of Islamic extremism among Pakistan’s officer corps. To deploy on a UN mission is for Pakistani soldiers a reward. UN assignments are more lucrative than normal army service, and an assignment Pakistan’s military leadership offers only to the most ideologically loyal. This in turn requires embracing the Islamist radicalism that has marked Pakistan’s officer corps since the Bangladesh defeat and the rule of president-turned-prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

happy coincidences are more commonplace than ever...

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/ ... definitely

French energy giant Total SE suspended its $20 billion liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique indefinitely due to an escalation of violence in the area, including a March attack by Islamic State-linked militants.

The fresh violence in the north of the Cabo Delgado province “leads Total, as operator of Mozambique LNG project, to declare force majeure,” the company said in a statement on Monday. That’s “the only way to best protect the project interest, until work can resume.” Project finance remains in effect and “Mozambique LNG has agreed with lenders to temporarily pause the debt drawdown,” Total said.

The force majeure gives Total “a lot of breathing room” with the construction companies and buyers of the gas, while increasing pressure on the Mozambican government to resolve the security situation, said Darias Jonker, Africa director at Eurasia Group. That will take community engagement as well as intelligence resources to remove the insurgency, he said. “Overall the downward trajectory of the situation continues.”

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projec ... g-project/

Total holds 26.5% interest in the Rovuma Area 1 exploration and production concession. The other licensees are ENH Rovuma Área Um (15%), Mitsui E&P Mozambique Area1 (20%), ONGC Videsh (10%), Beas Rovuma Energy Mozambique (10%), Bharat Petroresources Limited (BPRL) Ventures Mozambique (10%), and PTTEP Mozambique Area 1 (8.5%).

Anadarko Petroleum (now Occidental Petroleum) was previously the operator of the project. Total acquired Anadarko's 26.5% operated interest in the Rovuma LNG project for £3.1bn ($3.9bn) in September 2019.

Beas Rovuma Energy Mozambique (BREM) is a joint venture between ONGC Videsh (60%) and Oil India Limited (OIL, 40%), while BPRL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bharat Petroleum, another state-controlled oil and gas company of India

[bala]

Historian Abhijit Chavda unravels the role of NeverWho and his stupidity aiding China to takeover Tibet. Tibet was always known to be a country of peace, centered around Buddhism until China invaded and took it over. The invasion was such that Dalai Lama, Tibet's head of the state and also the head of the religion had to flee from the country to save his life. But what is the full story of this invasion? Why did China even want to invade Tibet? What is the history of Tibet?

Since Tibet was a vast region with limited access, the supply lines were non-existent for any invasion. Chinese soldiers during Mao regime were aided by Neverwho who supplied Rice from India to feed them.

Ukrainia was the border region of Rus and the original capital of Rus was Kiev.



// little tidbit: Romani people include Charlie Chaplin, Elvis Pressley, Pablo Picasso, Yul Bryner, etc. BTW William Blythe was romani. Bill Clinton, the former President of the United States, was born William Jefferson Blythe III and has never denied his Romany heritage. 1 million romanis/gypsy were exterminated during WWII Nazis. The Jewish Holocaust memorial did not allow mention of the Romani/Gypsy genocide.

[vijayk]

[bala]

India is sending arms (Pinaka, Swati radars, artillery) to Armenia via Iran. Abhijit Chavda explores the underlying reasons behind India's involvement in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. The Mackinder theory, highlighting Russia's pivotal role in the world stage, adds further significance to India's actions. Cordial relations between India and Armenia over the years underlines historical connections, the Turks believe Armenians to be India origin people. Turkey, Azerbaijan routinely oppose India on the so-called Kashmir issue (no more!) and take sides with the neighbor next door country. Surprisingly, Israel is with Azerbaijan, just to oppose Iran. Complex equations, requiring a better understanding.

[Cyrano]

Important developments in Niger president replaced by a military general and people attacking and partially burning the French embassy there, giving lots of heart burn to France, EU and US. First rescue flight for French citizen from Niger landed in Paris today.
Niger is an important supplier of uranium to France

[vera_k]

India is sending arms (Pinaka, Swati radars, artillery) to Armenia via Iran.

This is good to see. At long last perhaps there is a customer who is motivated to be an early user of DRDO output.

[RoyG]

They bought ATAGS and Kalyani Marg 155. At this rate they’ll have better arty capability than us with our own product.

[Pratyush]

Imagine if, the Indian army buys the ATAGS, after it has seen some action in Armenia.

[RoyG]

Of all the merchandise we are pouring into Armenia, nothing gives the Azeris sleepless nights quite like the Pinaka. It is nasty. The NAVIC guided ER version with 75km range armed with the PreFrag air burst fuse will target with pinpoint accuracy and pepper everything within 75m w/ 20,000 tungsten balls. Airbases, radar stations, logistics, communications, troops concentrations, convoys, etc. Truly a punitive response to any aggression.

[ricky_v]

https://archive.is/Ka0Kf

China’s weaponization of race and history

With every BRICS meeting since 2021, the stress on the need to contribute to an equitable global architecture is becoming glaringly apparent in both the expansion of the grouping and the discussions surrounding issues of the “Global South.”

However, it is still not a widely accepted terminology in the Western world and scholars skeptical of that description go with the so-called Global South. Some have issues with what the term really means; others have concerns of acknowledging the term and the costs associated with it — validating anti-Western sentiments, particularly hitting at West’s Achilles heel of history.

In that backdrop, Beijing’s recent actions signal a clear attempt at targeting that Achillies heel, i.e. weaponizing history, particularly through sensitive topics such as race.

For example, Vladimir Putin hosting the Forum with African leaders in Sochi, used the opportunity to inflame the colonial grievances of the Africa leaders by blaming the Western world for the ongoing conflicts in Africa. He went on to claim that “remaining a hotbed of tensions in Africa is the heritage of colonial divide and (the) conquer policy by the West.”
Interestingly, the major poles on the world stage and several African nations have refrained from siding with the Western world on global issues — from climate change to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, they have on multiple instances supported the upliftment of each other such as with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s advocating for a place for the African Union in the Group of 20.

Historically, America’s direct invasions and democracy promotion projects, and even indirect support for invasions abroad, created communities into refugees (think of Vietnam, Central America, Libya and more recently Afghanistan), consequently, leaving them at the mercy and magnanimity of the Western world to open its borders when they land at its shores. Progressive writer Teju Cole described it as, “the white savior supports brutal policies in the morning, and founds charities in the afternoon, and receives awards in the evening.”

Over the last year or so, several African leaders have challenged European leaders publicly. Examples include the leader of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, getting into a spat with President Emanuel Macron of France at a news conference; Namibia President Hage Geingob dismissing Germany’s concerns over China’s alleged nefarious involvement in its affairs as sheer hypocrisy; and more recently, the leader of South Africa speaking his mind on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lamenting Britain's failure to acknowledge its own imperial past.
While leaders of the Global South air their grievances publicly, Macron in a recent trip to the Indo-Pacific implicitly referenced China’s role in the Pacific Islands as new imperialism. Many nations in the Global South, however, still have memories of colonization by European powers and don't equate China’s actions as equivalent.

[ricky_v]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-s ... ukus-wager

In addition, the three leaders announced a series of other steps related to the deal: U.S. and British submarines are to begin showing up in Australian waters later this year and will establish a rotational presence there, the United States will sell three to five Virginia class submarines to Australia, marking the first time that Washington will transfer these boats to a foreign nation, and all three countries will invest in their own and one another’s submarine industrial capacities—an approach that has never been undertaken before.

Any effort by the United States and its partners to effectively compete with China must address the profound degradation in the Indo-Pacific security environment. Perhaps most important, however, they must address the unspoken but growing assumption in the region that China’s advantages are insurmountable and that smaller countries have no agency in their—or the region’s—fortunes. funnily enough, these countries will have no agency in their or their regions future even with the involvement of the fdf, a connection that the author is unable to make


For the United Kingdom, it speaks to its ambitions to once again play a global security role; for Australia, it constitutes a decision to play a larger part in shaping its own region; and for the United States, it demonstrates a commitment to strengthen its most trusted allies in the service of collective, rather than unilateral, efforts to maintain a favorable balance of power. Indeed, as important as the initiative itself may be the larger strategic transformation that it ushers in.

As much as it is a large-scale defense cooperation pact, AUKUS is also a harbinger of a new approach to U.S. defense policy and architecture. For much of the postwar period, the United States has pursued a policy of primacy or preeminence in the Indo-Pacific. The consistent and long-standing goal of U.S. policy has been to prevent the emergence of another power that can establish a sphere of influence in Asia and set the conditions for American access and influence. But AUKUS underscores how that policy goal is now unrealistic, potentially counterproductive, and probably unnecessary.

Moreover, primacy was built around a hub-and-spoke alliance model, according to which the United States dictated the terms of its security relationship with its allies. That model is no longer practical. As China has grown more powerful, and as American power has fallen in relative terms, Washington is now increasingly invested in allies who can pull their own weight and complement U.S. capabilities.

At the same time, regional defense architecture is undergoing its own transformation. In the past, the hub-and-spoke model gave American forces access to several strategically located bases. That is now changing in three important ways. First, the hub-and-spoke model is evolving into a more flexible and multifaceted “latticework of alliances and partnerships.” In this updated model, the United States will play more of a supporting and enabling role for its allies. a model successfully tried and tested in ukraine i think, the countries who are being thus empowered by the us should be cheered on with all might Second, because of the increasing reach of Chinese strike capabilities, regional defense architecture must now prioritize finding new locations to preposition assets, building support infrastructure, and rotating American and other forces. Finally, both Australia and Japan are now actively seeking to make themselves into harder targets by pursuing their own area-denial capabilities, including long-range strike capabilities, that have the potential to constrict Beijing’s ability to project power farther afield. Doing so will create mutually contested spaces that in war would put Beijing’s power projection at risk and in peace will reassure friends in the region that China cannot have its way with them.

But in other respects, AUKUS can act as a catalyst for investments, efforts, and collaborations by other countries similarly concerned by China’s increasingly assertive military. Since the deal was first announced in 2021, London and Washington have signaled their eagerness to extend collaborations with other countries. interestingly, does not mention if any other country is as keen to undertake such collaborations with the champions of freedom and democracy AUKUS investments can create space for other nations to undertake their own efforts and defense enhancements and work more closely with the three AUKUS governments.

AUKUS has also raised expectations for Pillar 2—the still underdeveloped part of the agreement intended to drive cooperation on advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, hypersonics, quantum computing, cyber, unmanned underwater vehicles, and electronic warfare. This is part of a broader effort to catalyze technological integration, industrial production, and strategic innovation. Given the significance of advanced and emerging technologies to the prosperity and security of nations in the twenty-first century, it is unsurprising that prominent voices in France, India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea have also signaled interest in finding ways to join these efforts.

The hope of these initiatives is to create a virtuous circle: the more that the United States and its closest partners lean in to actively enhance security in the Indo-Pacific region, the more other countries will be willing to lean into their own, or joint efforts. And the more resources that are invested, the greater the overall capacities that will be generated.

[NRao]

[NRao]

[ramana]

https://tomluongo.me/2023/08/07/france- ... nge-world/

Will post the text

[sanman]

Will geopolitics soon extend into space?

[ramana]

Something is going on around South Pole of the Moon.
A rush to explore the area by space powers once Chandrayaan-1 discovered water there.

[sanman]

Something is going on around South Pole of the Moon.
A rush to explore the area by space powers once Chandrayaan-1 discovered water there.

Will this be part of a new Cold War?

The original Cold War started the whole space race.
Will a revived Cold War then manifest itself as a new space race?
Even though it was largely abandoned after Apollo, will the Moon finally become the new high ground?

[NRao]

[sanman]

[sanman]

Regarding final comments of the video -- okay, now my curiosity is piqued -- what is this technology Russia is investing in, to give itself semiconductor self-sufficiency? Does anyone know, and can tell me?

[NRao]

in Urdu.

[NRao]

The choice before us: International law or a ‘rules-based international order’?

[Cyrano]

Excellent read, thanks for sharing.

[Haresh]

Joe Biden aims for a Middle East hat-trick. He’s delusional and out of time

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ut-of-time

[banrjeer]

Head lines in all MSM are curated and tell us how certain ideologues want you to think.
TOI is a sucker for Bloomberg articles and there is s pattern. CNN creates headlines that don't even match or even contradict the actual articles content, They are designed just for visual impressions not for actual reading.

What connection does Xi/China have with Russia's moon mission???
However Bloomberg has tailored an article seemingly making that far fetched connection just for desi eyeballs putting Xi and Putin in the same frame. the content is crap.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 897027.cms

[banrjeer]

Is India becoming the most willing slave of the crumbling anglo-sphere? Pakistan is farther ahead, followed their masters bidding and replaced their PM, ...but they don't count as a nation. In contrast, Burkina Faso, Niger are showing some spine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39AUMk_175s.. It's still a long haul for Africa but some hope.

[NRao]

[NRao]

Interesting

[Pratyush]

This German position is not worth the paper it's written on.

The Germans are just parroting the talking points given to them by massa.

Massa wants a right with China. All the slaves are going to fall in line.

[sanman]

This German position is not worth the paper it's written on.

The Germans are just parroting the talking points given to them by massa.

Massa wants a right with China. All the slaves are going to fall in line.

Merkel was able to exercise significant pushback against Washington, because she had EU at her back.
Biden NeoCons have badly damaged EU by pushing Ukraine war (and this was by clear design, because NeoCons didn't like pushy EU/Germany/France)

Schroeder has to deal with current mess, and likely sees India as a useful upcoming growth market, just as China's market has for past few decades provided a lucrative trading relationship for Germany/EU. So "beggars can't be choosers" and he'll still try to court India, even if Washington has the power to squeeze Germany on big strategic matters.

[bala]

As an Indian who has visited Singapore many times, I find this development fascinating. Tharman ShanmugaRatnam elected as President of Singapore by a wide margin (70%). I remember way back when I visited Singapore, in a bus tour, a singaporean of chinese descent ridiculed Hindus while passing by a temple, so many Gods, he remarked to a white gent. I remained quiet. Tharman is really Dharman in Sanskrit. Indic people are ruling the world.

[ramana]

German Chancellor Schloss is moving away from Merkel's dogma.
He wants to increase German economy export diversity.

[Atmavik]

Geopolitical Strategist on China's Upcoming Collapse

Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist, has a perspective on China's collapse.

I don’t take him seriously. Watch some of his videos from 10 yrs ago on u tube and see how many of his wild claims have come true ? He is from Texas and can’t take his head out out of the oil well. He also cherry picks data to suit his pov .

[bala]

Agreed, saw a few other YT from this guy and he is not without bias.

[drnayar]