Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 12 Dec 2023 19:10

Institutions are only as strong as the government behind it. One must have a strong leadership to progress militarily and economically.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 12 Dec 2023 19:35

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 12 Dec 2023 20:01

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 12 Dec 2023 20:21

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 12 Dec 2023 20:46

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 12 Dec 2023 20:58

VishnuS · Post by **VishnuS** » 13 Dec 2023 20:09

vijayk wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 19:35

I can't remember it very well, but there was a trade pact with ASEAN, China and India, probably in Modi's first term (2017), India had backed out the discussion revolved around Trade of Goods, as Services was not included. India was a net importer of Goods because of the trade deal we signed with ASEAN, I believe this is that trade deal. One of the reason we backed out was ASEAN and China were willing to sign the deal related to goods, but were unwilling to sign it related to services as India is the leading Service Exporter and want to prevent their Service Industry from getting destroyed. Later that deal fell because India wasn't willing to sign it.

That is the first deal where I noticed Media flip, till the deal was signed, everyone made a lot of noise how badly it would impact our trade deficit and Modi shouldn't sign it, as soon as Modi Govt rejected ASEAN's proposal, Media went berserk because ASEAN will fall into Chinese Pivot.

I am glad that trade deal signed under Manmohan is being reviewed, hopefully we can include the service part and make sure our goods related trade deficit reduces. If things don't go out way, then I'd want GoI to end the agreement and shower money into PLI schemes related to goods imported from ASEAN.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 13 Dec 2023 21:15

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Dec 2023 01:31

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 14 Dec 2023 06:40

Haresh wrote: ↑07 Dec 2023 15:56
KL Dubey wrote: ↑07 Dec 2023 03:10

Cost is about Rs 1-1.3 lakhs depending on the exact type and the battery (acid versus lithium).

Public sector banks like Punjab Natl Bank offer e-rickshaw financing: https://www.pnbindia.in/downloadprocess ... NEg8vpAw==

Not sure if they are "loan sharks".

The above document says the financing covers most of the costs of battery replacement for the first two years. Lead acid batteries typically last 2-3 years or so, lithium ones will last much longer but cost more.

Kudos to you for helping out!

PS: Google is a good friend
Thank You, yes I know Google is a friend, however I am in London, just needed some real local knowledge.
The other thing I intend to do is organise some skills training, for the ladies as well as the young men. For the ladies I was thinking thinking, dress making, phulkari, jewelry making. The intention is to get a group of about five ladies trained in these skills, so they can pass these skills onto others who can't afford the training. With regards to the young men, I was thinking tech training from the local Industrial training Institutes, does anyone have any experience of these ?
The purpose is to skill them, get them off the land and out of poverty. They always ask me if I can help the immigrate, I can't.

Any thoughts ?

Haresh Saar,
Its quite noble regarding what you are planning to do. I can offer a few suggestions as there is still time for your travel. Are you trying to help the whole village or just a few of your personal family. the reason i ask is its relatively easier to help family than the village as whole.
However you need to tell the people that even if they convert and get to foreign shores without the requisite language skills and technical skills they will be taken advantage of and they can't do much.
Making multiple options would help the people.
1. You can have the woman folk organize like anganwaadi workers or (women self help groups) and then try to market their products. They can also try manufacturing food products and package them and send them to local restauarants/dhabas and eating places to earn money on the side. frozen packaging should help with keeping their products on shelf longer.
2. You could help them with specific dress designs like a traditional punjabi salwaar, kurta, lehenga and try to see if any Indian shops in london or EU will take them. If this is successful, then later you can think about geo tagging.
3. Coming to the guys, apart from what folks like KL Dubey ji have pointed out with Vishnu S Saar, you could try mudra loans. these loans were specifically brought in for self employment/business so that people don't have to go to loan sharks by the central govt. if you feel the paper work is too much try local MLA/rss karykarta who are good in helping out i hear.
4. If you native village has sugar cane production then maybe pooling with other neighboring villages they can set up ethanol manufacturing. All of them of course will need to have long term contracts from indian oil and so on.
5. If anyone is interested in farming, but are leaving due to not enough money to be made have them try zero budget natural farming with desi cows. It will help with long term health also as no fertilizer or pesticides are used.
6. ITI is offering skill development, though i haven't checked it recently. Skill India initiate should also help with technical job training, though i am not sure if they will also place people.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Dec 2023 09:33

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 15 Dec 2023 23:47

@MinhazMerchant· Dec 14

#RaghuramRajan in interview yesterday: “Rates may stay elevated next year. The Fed might only consider cutting by March or April.”

On the same day the Fed does exactly the opposite, ends rate hikes, 0.75% rate cut expected next year.

How can a person get it wrong so often?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 16 Dec 2023 19:00

bala · Post by **bala** » 16 Dec 2023 22:01

When will India Become 5 Trillion Economy I Will the Dollar Survive I Saurav Jha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnDz7JYAKJA

If ₹ will appreciate against US$ in near future, then the number could be attained quicker. Saurav Jha is assuming ₹ will be stable against US$. Getting to 20 T will be quicker after India gets to 5 T, maybe 8T by 2030. If India can sustain 7% growth rate and inflation around 4-5% then there is the arithmetic inevitability of getting to these numbers.

In the world at large, Euro zone has failed and its recovery is a long road. China has 300% debt ratio and the biggest unviable project in the world in BRI which has loans actually given in US$, recovery is next to impossible. The US remains the world's largest consumer market. Furthermore, the US has decided to pull out of China for manufacturing and place its bets on other nations like Vietnam, India, etc. China is also facing aging population (Japanification) of its nation. China's service sector is weak and not competitive in the marketplace, its excess capacity in manufacturing is an albatross on its shoulders. When manufacturing deflates and services don't increase, the nation faces huge unemployment issues.

The US is in the process of transitioning petro $ to techno $, i.e. crude oil is no more the king in trade (driven by galloping renewable energy, alternate energy like electric battery for cars) but technology products like aircrafts, semiconductors rule. The de-dollarization is about petro $, however the US$ will remain strong in the world since US retains the techno edge.

India is primed to participate in the techno edge over a time period due to its human resources and youthful profile. India needs to concentrate on right investments, up skill its labor force, ease of business (remove excess babugiri), policies & laws are stable, judiciary is nimble/quick and follows laws/agreements, upgrading its infrastucture, improve general productivity and invest heavily in R&D. The ratio of services to manufacturing in India is going to be balanced. Understand that each manufacturing job requires 7 jobs in services to support it, and manufacturing is going for more automation on the shop floor. The US requires other nations to manufacture, simply due to costs involved in labor and its attendant problems. US MIC is ready to transition its manufacturing needs to India. As India's GDP rises to say #2, the cost advantage of labor is going to disappear. When this transition happens then that would lead to a different mind set to tackle the new challenges.

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 17 Dec 2023 01:57

Haresh Saar,
Its quite noble regarding what you are planning to do. I can offer a few suggestions as there is still time for your travel. Are you trying to help the whole village or just a few of your personal family. the reason i ask is its relatively easier to help family than the village as whole.
However you need to tell the people that even if they convert and get to foreign shores without the requisite language skills and technical skills they will be taken advantage of and they can't do much.
Making multiple options would help the people.
1. You can have the woman folk organize like anganwaadi workers or (women self help groups) and then try to market their products. They can also try manufacturing food products and package them and send them to local restauarants/dhabas and eating places to earn money on the side. frozen packaging should help with keeping their products on shelf longer.
2. You could help them with specific dress designs like a traditional punjabi salwaar, kurta, lehenga and try to see if any Indian shops in london or EU will take them. If this is successful, then later you can think about geo tagging.
3. Coming to the guys, apart from what folks like KL Dubey ji have pointed out with Vishnu S Saar, you could try mudra loans. these loans were specifically brought in for self employment/business so that people don't have to go to loan sharks by the central govt. if you feel the paper work is too much try local MLA/rss karykarta who are good in helping out i hear.
4. If you native village has sugar cane production then maybe pooling with other neighboring villages they can set up ethanol manufacturing. All of them of course will need to have long term contracts from indian oil and so on.
5. If anyone is interested in farming, but are leaving due to not enough money to be made have them try zero budget natural farming with desi cows. It will help with long term health also as no fertilizer or pesticides are used.
6. ITI is offering skill development, though i haven't checked it recently. Skill India initiate should also help with technical job training, though i am not sure if they will also place people.
[/quote]

Thank You, what my plan is, to obviously help members of my family 1st. Some have turned to drink because they cannot see a way out of the hardships they face, they have suffered livestock deaths due to fire, having to leave education early etc.

The plan is to deposit about £5,000 in a Punjab bank account.
All loans will have to be paid back, slowly and without interest this will enable us to help others. I do not, except under the most exceptional circumstances believe anything should be given free.
My nephew was electrocuted and he is the one who I will buy the E-Rickshaw for.

With regard to the women, I prefer to deal with them because they are more switched on, the men just seem to be alcoholics. The women want the best for their children.
My intention is to initially pay for the training of a small core of 3-5 women/girls in Phulkari/dress making. I have found an organisation that can provide the training, https://special.ndtv.com/kushalta-ke-ka ... lai-school

They are in Jullandhar, the problem is the women cannot go there for a week for the training, so I will let them use the large family home we have. I will arrange transport to/from the training. Once they have it, they can develop a relationship with the organisation, who will hand hold them.

The food option you mentioned is also something I can look at. I have the premises, in the nearest large town.

There are several Industrial Training Institutes not too far, I will select several young men and arrange a visit. Without skills they are destined to be farm labourers for ever and subject to exploitation and caste discrimination forever.
I will only help one person per family. Once they are trained they can assist their family members.
Driving courses are another option, car, then industrial machines, forklift trucks, small/medium cranes etc.
I can if needed also pay a local retired teacher to provide maths and literacy tuition to raise the education standards to help in employment.

Unskilled people are a wasted resource. If the 3-400 million people at the bottom of the economic ladder are assisted, then India will rise. Without them, Indian will always lag behind.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 17 Dec 2023 05:14

A great talk by Sanjeev Sanyal, explaining process reforms, with five examples.
I can see why the embedded economic parasites (“rent-seekers”) have such a hatred of the current government.
https://youtu.be/3NoOtpKg9d0?si=jvRCo0k4mQAU-eny

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 17 Dec 2023 14:24

Sanjeev Sanyal has been talking about process reforms for couple of years. Most of all, this is to do with sheer number of court cases and criminalisation provisions that are used to harass (rent seeking) from small traders and other ordinary folk. Since the judiciary n India is incapable of reforming itself and not open to outside suggestions, govt is doing what it can by stopping such cases getting to courts.

Btw, he's open to being approached with suggestions about other areas that could do with process disruption. Anyone having any ideas, please start a thread. I'll do what I can to convey publicly or privately.

srin · Post by **srin** » 17 Dec 2023 17:14

There are a couple that come to mind immediately:
- Outsourcing and computerize title transfer (sub registrar office) operations. Look at the difference in passport office after TCS has taken over. Unfortunately, the sub registrar office is with state governments and are cesspits of corruption
- Alternate court system for contract violations. More than anything, business operations run on contracts being enforced. And any violation getting stuck in our court system means nothing is going to move for years.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 17 Dec 2023 20:34

Sanyal talks, with examples of five types of process changes to improve things.

If I remember correctly:

1. Rearrange a process (e.g., get necessary approvals in parallel instead of one after the other.)
2. Remove steps from a process
3. Add more people to work the process.
4. Change the regulation (and process), without changing the law under which the regulation was issued.
5. Change the law.

Even with the best of intentions, there can be unintended bad consequences. So, e.g., making mediation mandatory before going to court in the case of commercial disputes, seemingly to reduce the burden in the courts - the measured result is that only 2% of the cases get settled in mediation, and so all that this regulation does it delay things and increase costs for 98% of the cases. So one has to measure outcomes and change accordingly.'

Alternate court system is a structural reform, not a process change. Outsourcing title transfer - same process, just different people doing the job would be a process change. If it is a state level item, there is little the center can do; but I think the purpose of Sanyal's talk is to get people aware - the better state governments may change. As he says, unlike structural change, process change is not (currently) glamorous, not seen worthy of academic research, requires a deep dive into the process. He wanted to inspire his audience to take up this kind of work.

bala · Post by **bala** » 17 Dec 2023 22:37

India's economic data understate country’s GDP growth rate: Sanjeev Sanyal

Excerpts:

All economic data understate country’s GDP growth rate: PM-EAC member Sanjeev Sanyal
‘We need to update base year and when we do it, our economic growth will be higher’

It is obvious that our statistics undercount economic activities. Almost all series are based on the base year of 2011-12. We need to update the base year and when we do it, our economic growth will be higher. These numbers understate economic development in the country due to the outdated base.

We should change it at least once a decade. When we are going through such rapid changes, you should change it more frequently because many new products are emerging. In 2011-12, smartphones weren’t with everybody, you didn’t have drones. Now it’s a major production item. There are 500 other things like this which are major items of production today but didn’t exist 13-14 years ago. You talk about rapid development but we are not going to account for it, how this will work.

We are achieving 7% growth in a difficult environment where we are not getting any help from exports, and the world has tightened monetary policies. So, we are achieving (such high) growth rate on our own steam under difficult circumstances suggests India’s economic machine is in good shape, and importantly without any macroeconomic stress – inflation is not spiking up, current account is not blowing up or foreign exchange reserves have not declined. We have been able to generate a 7% growth rate under these circumstances suggests this economy is capable of sustaining 8% plus growth rate in a benign external environment.

The contribution of manufacturing gross value added (GVA) as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) will go up to 25%, but it will take time.

On Process Reform:

Thousands of such process reforms are being attempted, which are about making the current system work efficiently. Any such single reform may not be radical but cumulatively they have a huge impact on the economy. I am a big proponent of greater attention being given to these process reforms. Most of these reforms don’t need big political debate, and they are relatively easy to do. They don’t even need big money to be done.For example, our patenting system - we have to just expand it. Nobody is debating that we should not expand the patent system. You need to improve the judicial system, the way registration of land and property is done. These are process reforms and we need to do lots of them.

// My comment: Looks like the GoI needs a ministry of process reform or alternatively ask each ministry to show progress on process reform 10x from where they are today. The entire babucracy is mired in laborious processes. A simple IT BPM (business process management) system can be implemented for each process. Every step has a time bound assigned owner, any deficiencies will be flagged in daily/monthly reports. All the steps can be monitored by the submitter of the case to see where things stand. The Judiciary also needs this for all court cases. Too many people hide behind process for masking their own lethargy. A simple AI program can make short work of obvious steps, even decide cases automatically and speed up the process. When India is IT capital of the world implementing all of this is no brainer.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 18 Dec 2023 04:31

> Too many people hide behind process for masking their own lethargy.

It is less innocent than that, at least in three of the five cases that Sanyal mentioned.

1. A sarkari babu has to advertise in the newspapers that a corporation is shutting down, creditors have so much time to register any claims. That babu would not advertise without "encouragement" and that was the main bottleneck.

2. The first violation of a weights or measures error (made up example - a packet of biscuits is marked as weighing 100 gms. and the regulation in some state says you must write "100 grams") is a fine, the second violation is a criminal matter with up to 7 years in jail. One lakh cases a year of first violations, barely a handful of second cases - looks like the law is having a good deterrent effect. Actually, once the inspector gets someone on the first violation, he has a slave for life - keep paying up or face a criminal case.

3. The compulsory (and useless) mediation for commercial disputes is a few months of legal fees with no work to be done for the lawyers, so they very much want that regulation to continue.

The fourth case, which made working from home over the internet and phone illegal unless you had a PBX may have been used for rent-extraction as well.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 18 Dec 2023 22:39

There appears to be a concerted effort to reinvent the wheel in India. There is more than one international example of nations with systems that work better than those in India. Why is there such reluctance to adopt/steal/adapt such proven examples?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 19 Dec 2023 02:10

NEW DELHI: Remittances to India are estimated to rise over 11% to $125 billion in 2023, helping it retain the top spot ahead of Mexico ($67 billion) and China ($50 billion), data released on Monday showed.

A strong base of skilled and unskilled workers in the US, the UK, Singapore and Gulf nations is expected to result in an 8% increase in flows to around $135 billion in 2024, World Bank's latest migration and development brief showed.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... s?from=mdr

Added: anyone who can go into depth into this? The claim is that inflation in India is because of Modi-aided corporate price gouging.
https://thewire.in/economy/india-inflat ... ce-gouging

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 19 Dec 2023 06:24

A_Gupta wrote: ↑19 Dec 2023 02:10 Added: anyone who can go into depth into this? The claim is that inflation in India is because of Modi-aided corporate price gouging.
https://thewire.in/economy/india-inflat ... ce-gouging

Just read the bylines and you will have enough info to dismiss it entirely. It is nothing but a commie hit piece with dubious allegations and logical thinking to shoehorn in the premise that all corporations and capitalist enterprises are evil and profits must be eliminated, etc. etc.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Dec 2023 21:59

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Dec 2023 22:39

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Dec 2023 23:18

No. of UPI transactions:

17-18: 92 Crore
22-23: 8375 Crore in 22-23
Compound Annual Growth Rate- 147%

UPI transactions in Value:

17-18: ₹ 1 Lakh Crore
22-23: ₹ 139 Lakh Crore
CAGR-168%

Value of Bank Notes in circulation:
21-22: 9.9%
22-23: 7.8%

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 21 Dec 2023 15:05

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 21 Dec 2023 16:38

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Dec 2023 08:42

In nominal (i.e., not PPP) terms, India was 4% of the world GDP at Independence. It declined to 2% of world GDP over the next 40+ years. Now it is back to almost 4% of the world GDP.

That too, India was 12% of the world population in 1947 and is now about 18% of world population, so Indian per person share of world GDP has still not recovered to 1947.

So there is a lot to celebrate (the direction of the economic trajectory) and little to celebrate yet (we've not yet fully surpassed 1947).

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 23 Dec 2023 09:58

^ that would be true if money then was the same as money now . The example also illustrates how imperfect gdp calculations are . Back in 1947 India had 10% literacy , 90% homes didn't have electricity and almost nothing was manufactured. Average life expectancy was half of what it is today .Yet India seemingly had a higher world share of percapita income .

Currencies then were linked to gold standard . There was no fiat currency that was used as a standard for other currencies . Money behaved differently than it does now .

I think quantitative calculations between different era make for good abstract entertainment . However I wonder if they accurately reflect the ground situation.

For instance , the literacy rate , electricity utilization , life expectancy etc of India are now closer to US or Europe than they were in 1947 .and are constantly getting closer . So is the industrial output etc . I think we have done quite alright . Particularly the last decade .

Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 23 Dec 2023 10:23

FWIW, am summarizing some of the take-aways of recent conversations w fund managers and investors… am for the same of brevity only mentioning as the first point the overall impact of the last 10 years of the Modi government:
1. The “execution discount” associated with India since 2004 has reduced, and India- particularly since it impressive handling of the pandemic- is now seen as a country where things actually happen, and the government “works”. This has been a huge if un-articulated change in the perception and where India is finally seen as potentially another China (with a different path of course)
2. Black swan event risk of Modi not becoming PM post the 2024 elections. While seen as almost a done deal, the long term trajectory risk a BJP loss poses is real and a major pending consideration. Large scale fund flows will continue to be below potential till May 2024
3. Of the pending items the two major areas of “hard reform” are (a) energy cost- where we are still seen as extraordinarily high especially compared to Vietnam, Mexico and USA; and (b) labour productivity, which is still seen as lagging especially in large scale manufacturing, mixed with overall continued challenges in EoDB at the state level
4. Biggest challenge now is that none-none- of our cities are seen anywhere close to offering a decent standard of living (Gujarat while scoring on almost every front loses out on alcohol and nightlife). Cleanliness remains a major issue and that is seen as impacting not just FDI but also international inbound tourism
FWIW of course
Best wishes for 2024 dear BRakshaks… may it be prosperous and may Modiji come back with an even bigger majority…

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Dec 2023 10:56

gakakkad wrote: ↑23 Dec 2023 09:58 ^ that would be true if money then was the same as money now . The example also illustrates how imperfect gdp calculations are . Back in 1947 India had 10% literacy , 90% homes didn't have electricity and almost nothing was manufactured. Average life expectancy was half of what it is today .Yet India seemingly had a higher world share of percapita income .

All valid points and that shows up in the PPP GDP, at least when purchasing goods and services within the country. That is why I prefaced my paragraph with "In nominal terms" (i.e., using currency exchange rates).

However, buying something from abroad is done in nominal terms.

India is about 7% of the world GDP in PPP terms.

(The money then not the same as money now should also be remembered when saying that the British looted $45 trillion or that India once contributed 30% of the world GDP, etc., which are popular tropes these days).

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 23 Dec 2023 12:00

A_Gupta wrote: ↑23 Dec 2023 10:56
gakakkad wrote: ↑23 Dec 2023 09:58 ^ that would be true if money then was the same as money now . The example also illustrates how imperfect gdp calculations are . Back in 1947 India had 10% literacy , 90% homes didn't have electricity and almost nothing was manufactured. Average life expectancy was half of what it is today .Yet India seemingly had a higher world share of percapita income .
All valid points and that shows up in the PPP GDP, at least when purchasing goods and services within the country. That is why I prefaced my paragraph with "In nominal terms" (i.e., using currency exchange rates).

However, buying something from abroad is done in nominal terms.

India is about 7% of the world GDP in PPP terms.

(The money then not the same as money now should also be remembered when saying that the British looted $45 trillion or that India once contributed 30% of the world GDP, etc., which are popular tropes these days).

With 18% of the world's population or nearly a 5th of it..India s share of the GDP would also rise exponentially and not linearly. The jump from 5 trillion to a 20 trillion would happen in less than a decade

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 23 Dec 2023 17:13

4x GDP in 10 years requires ~15%p.a. compounded growth, on real basis. Not realistic!

bala · Post by **bala** » 23 Dec 2023 23:28

Mohandas Pai and Sanjeev Sanyal At Republic Business India with Doorknob talking about the great Indian advantage and will India be able to sustain the dream run. Mohandas has all statistics at his fingertips. Doorknob is bringing up China all the time and he brings up Vietnam doing better than India. All good points but they are countered by both Mohandas and Sanjeev. Once the base year is fixed, the GDP numbers/valuation would go up. Sanjeev wants to stamp out all rent seeking activities like metrology (weights & measures) legal system. W. Bengal (Kolkatta in particular) is actually a huge failure and drags down the rest in the region, including Bihar, Jarkhand and parts of Orissa. Punjab is an abject failure. UP, Orissa and Assam are doing well, West India and South India are growing, though TN and Kerala are becoming laggards with political leadership caught in idealogy rather than business.

India's investment in R&D is abysmally low. Many state govts are actively putting huge brakes on the economy and the Indian babucracy / state babucracy are afraid their control will be lost forever. India's judiciary requires major reforms and of course the babucracy of India is stuck in some bygone era. India requires a swatch bharat version 2.0, all major tier 1 cities are glorified slums in many parts, filthy and unkempt. Despite growth in infrastructure like roads, railways, ports and airports, city streets are poorly maintained dug up here and there, there is patchy supply of water and electricity. There is no mechanized cleanup using truck sweepers (sides of roads are dust heaps everywhere) and truck watering on streets for general cleanliness.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcV7dd7Wdrw

bala · Post by **bala** » 25 Dec 2023 08:55

Another DoorKnob interview of Hardeep Singh Puri (Petroleum Mantriji) and Amitabh Kant (NITI Aayog) in Republic Business Summit on the future of the Indian economy. Doorknob brings up W. Bengal cribbing about GST money and unemployment numbers, both were refuted eloquently. Also china import numbers into India was raked up (which is true) since the baniyas of India are clamouring for easy money and are loath to creating manufacturing might within India.

I hope the Indian GoI in 3rd term of Modi puts strictures for imports from China. On the crude oil import front India has adroitly managed imports from various nations including Russia. Petrol prices were brought down in BJP states by lowering the VAT addendum to fuel prices. Also ethanol blend has increased, many refineries are importing crude and selling refined products to other nations, this reduces the overall import bill for India. India has approx 185 MW of renewable power generation, some of which will be used to crack water for green hydrogen generation. More electrification and more renewable energy production will ease out the crude oil bill.

Right skilling the population by focusing on meaningful job oriented skills like plumbing, carpentry, appliance maintenance, etc, more R&D investment by private companies and GoI PSUs, boosting defense force budget to around 3% of GDP, investment in upgrading 6+ lakh (would require 30-40 lakh crores, well worth it) village infrastructure, more investment in basic services (water, sanitation, assured electricity power, roads, demolish older buildings and create modern up-to-date ones) and absolutely modern amenities in Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities are required. India still presents a 3rd world look throughout and the BIFs, I.N.D.I.A are hell bent on keeping it that way by selling their morals and shraddha to foreign entities, selling India's security away to China. These fissiparous tendency must be done away with judiciary reforms and babucracy reforms. Cannot have these things hanging like a sabre around the general populace. India must get down to true atmanirbhata in all areas, cannot be in the business of importing components and doing general screwdrivergiri work. One absolute necessity is to create India origin commercial planes - engine, airframe and get certification.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRlj2giYdEU

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 25 Dec 2023 16:39

@bala thanks for summarising these

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 25 Dec 2023 23:22

Trading is less difficult than manufacturing. Fewer laws to comply and so fewer inspectors. Manufacturing requires industrial land which is expensive. Manufacturing requires trained manpower, etc etc
No point in running down businessmen.

bala · Post by **bala** » 26 Dec 2023 02:34

There is nothing sacrosanct in any sector of the economy and that includes rent seeking business people who employ dubious means of enriching themselves, part of which the GOI needs to take blame. Most businesses are very stingy when it comes to ploughing in money for R&D of products for creating their own version using Indian talent. This business of import and re-package must be strongly thwarted by the GoI. There can be initially okay for some imports but progressively the surcharges go up, in other words you are forced to find substitutes within the nation. It is okay for products to be more expensive than those created abroad, over time such anomalies will be corrected.

Here is another YT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u4-Bh5vYmQ by Sanjeev Sanyal of many issues in the economy. He clearly states that Kolkatta was "murdered" by the commy cabal. Hope more people from Bengal realize the debacle and vote out the MaoMata, that is the only way they can progress. The Kangress benefitted from loans and caused the NPA issue by enriching themselves at the cost of the exchequer. With the buddies across the border the Kangress indulged in printing fake currencies (same printing press from abroad) all of which came crashing down during demonetization. One guy who was involved in the printing made a bonfire out of 10 T (thirteen zeros) rupees.

Now India has a team of thinkers who have been handpicked by government to guide and to leapfrog into a new destiny. Sanjeev is one of the few torch bearers on the economy front. We don't have frauds like RR whose every prediction is wrong. It is up to many Indians to serve their motherland to the best extent and be a part of history to bring India back to centuries old domination of the world economy. The youth dividend is short lived for India around 25 yrs or so, since the birth rate has slowed down compared to the death rate. During the next 25 years India has to leap frog itself to a truly world leading nation in almost all metrics.